Friday August 9th MLB Discussion
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
OK, who's got the best team..
this was shamelessly stolen from another site and only a couple days old..seems fairly legit
1. Houston Astros (73-40; Last 10: 8-2; Championship Odds: 2/1)
Projected Record: 107-55
Newly acquired pitcher Aaron Sanchez--who had a 6.07 ERA with the Blue Jays this season--pitched 6 innings in a combined no-hitter on Saturday. After trading for Zack Greinke, the Astros already had perhaps the best rotation in baseball, which would be even scarier if Sanchez is solid down the stretch. They have a 43.7 percent chance of reaching the World Series (Odds stand at 5/8). The odds of them winning the World Series are 2/1 and they win it all in 27.6 percent of our latest simulations.
2. L.A. Dodgers (75-40; Last 10: 7-3; Championship Odds: 3/1)
Projected Record: 105-57
The Dodgers took 3 of 4 from the Padres over the weekend. Top-pitching prospect, Dustin "Gingergaard" May, made his debut, and although he took the loss, he looked very capable of handling MLB competition. Hyun-Jin Ryu going on the IL is a bit concerning, but his injury (neck soreness) doesn't seem to serious and his stint should be short. Kershaw and Buehler had very good outings over the weekend, but Kenta Maeda got shelled. Maeda has now given up 10 ER over 6.2 IP in his last 2 outings. They have a 44.3 percent chance of reaching the World Series (Odds stand at 5/7). The odds of them winning the World Series are 3/1 and they win it all in 27.2 percent of our latest simulations.
3. New York Yankees (73-39; Last 10: 7-3; Championship Odds: 9/2)
Projected Record: 101-61
The Yankees continue to win despite being every player on their roster seemingly getting injured. Aaron Hicks and Edwin Encarnacion joined a long list of injured Yankees. The good news? The Yankees are now 14.5 games up over the Red Sox after sweeping them in 4 games over the weekend. Their current odds of winning the AL are 2/1 and in simulations they win the conference 24.9% of the time. They have a 12 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 9/2).
4. Cleveland Indians (66-46; Last 10: 6-4; Championship Odds: 20/1)
Projected Record: 97-65
The Indians swept the Angels in three games over the weekend, getting good outings from Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, and Adam Plutko. The Indians have a 2.0 game lead for a Wild Card spot and are still just 4.0 back of the Twins in the AL Central. Computer simulations give them a 10.8% chance of winning the AL with Vegas odds at 10/1. They have a 4.8 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 20/1).
5. Minnesota Twins (70-42; Last 10: 8-2; Championship Odds: 16/1)
Projected Record: 99-63
The Twins swept the Royals to keep their lead over the Indians at 3.0 games. LHP prospect Devin Smeltzer continues to impress at the big league level and now has a 2.28 ERA in 27.2 IP in 5 appearances. Nelson Cruz had his second 3 HR game in the last 10 games and has hit 14 of his 30 homers this season over his last 21 games. Injuries are a bit of a concern for the Twins with Michael Pineda, Byron Buxton, and newly acquired Sam Dyson all going on the IL. They have a 15.7 percent chance of reaching the World Series (Odds stand at 7/1). They have a 6.4 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 16/1).
6. Atlanta Braves (66-48; Last 10: 6-4; Championship Odds: 10/1)
Projected Record: 92-70
Despite struggling lately, the Braves still hold a 6.0 game lead over the Nats and Phillies. Newly acquired CL Shane Greene gave up 4 ER over 2 IP for the Braves over the weekend after only giving up 5 ER in 38.0 IP for Detroit. SPs Julio Teheran and Max Fried have been solid as of late, and Mike Soroka continues to pitch like an ace. Their current odds of winning the NL are 9/2 and in simulations they win the conference 14.4% of the time. They have a 6 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 10/1).
7. Oakland Athletics (64-49; Last 10: 6-4 Championship Odds: 40/1)
Projected Record: 94-68
The A's are now just .5 game back of the second wild card spot after winning 6 of their last 7 games. Tanner Roark looked solid in his A's debut and could be a key piece in the rotation for a playoff run. Sean Manaea suffered a setback in his rehab, but pitching prospect AJ Puk looks close to being called up to the majors and would help in the pen this season. Their current odds of winning the AL are 20/1 and in simulations they win the conference 3.5% of the time. The odds of them winning the World Series are 40/1 and they win it all in 1.5 percent of our latest simulations.
8. Chicago Cubs (61-51; Last 10: 6-4; Championship Odds: 14/1)
Projected Record: 89-73
The Cubs have built a 2.5 game lead in the NL Central after sweeping Milwaukee and taking the first game against the A's. Getting Cole Hamels back is huge for the Cubs, as well as adding another bat in Nick Castellanos. Computer simulations give them a 19.2% chance of winning the NL with Vegas odds at 6/1. They have a 7 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 14/1).
9. Tampa Bay Rays (65-49; Last 10: 8-2; Championship Odds: 25/1)
Projected Record: 91-71
The Rays are suddenly hot again and got contributions from deadline acquisitions Nick Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, and Eric Sogard in their three game sweep over the Marlins. If Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell can get healthy before the postseason, the Rays could become a team to watch out for.Their current odds of winning the AL are 12/1 and in simulations they win the conference 3.2% of the time. The odds of them winning the World Series are 25/1 and they win it all in 1.4 percent of our latest simulations.
10. Boston Red Sox (60-55; Last 10: 2-8; Championship Odds: 50/1)
Projected Record: 86-76
Despite getting swept in 4 games to the Yankees over the weekend, our computers still like the Red Sox enough to keep them in the top-10 of the Power Rankings. Chris Sale and David Price both got shelled over the weekend. The Red Sox failed to address their bullpen issues at the trade deadline and at 5.5 games back of the second wild card spot, they are in serious danger of missing the playoffs coming off a World Series victory. Their projected win total is down from 92 wins on July 28. While not great, they still have an outside shot at making the playoffs (3.8%).
this was shamelessly stolen from another site and only a couple days old..seems fairly legit
1. Houston Astros (73-40; Last 10: 8-2; Championship Odds: 2/1)
Projected Record: 107-55
Newly acquired pitcher Aaron Sanchez--who had a 6.07 ERA with the Blue Jays this season--pitched 6 innings in a combined no-hitter on Saturday. After trading for Zack Greinke, the Astros already had perhaps the best rotation in baseball, which would be even scarier if Sanchez is solid down the stretch. They have a 43.7 percent chance of reaching the World Series (Odds stand at 5/8). The odds of them winning the World Series are 2/1 and they win it all in 27.6 percent of our latest simulations.
2. L.A. Dodgers (75-40; Last 10: 7-3; Championship Odds: 3/1)
Projected Record: 105-57
The Dodgers took 3 of 4 from the Padres over the weekend. Top-pitching prospect, Dustin "Gingergaard" May, made his debut, and although he took the loss, he looked very capable of handling MLB competition. Hyun-Jin Ryu going on the IL is a bit concerning, but his injury (neck soreness) doesn't seem to serious and his stint should be short. Kershaw and Buehler had very good outings over the weekend, but Kenta Maeda got shelled. Maeda has now given up 10 ER over 6.2 IP in his last 2 outings. They have a 44.3 percent chance of reaching the World Series (Odds stand at 5/7). The odds of them winning the World Series are 3/1 and they win it all in 27.2 percent of our latest simulations.
3. New York Yankees (73-39; Last 10: 7-3; Championship Odds: 9/2)
Projected Record: 101-61
The Yankees continue to win despite being every player on their roster seemingly getting injured. Aaron Hicks and Edwin Encarnacion joined a long list of injured Yankees. The good news? The Yankees are now 14.5 games up over the Red Sox after sweeping them in 4 games over the weekend. Their current odds of winning the AL are 2/1 and in simulations they win the conference 24.9% of the time. They have a 12 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 9/2).
4. Cleveland Indians (66-46; Last 10: 6-4; Championship Odds: 20/1)
Projected Record: 97-65
The Indians swept the Angels in three games over the weekend, getting good outings from Shane Bieber, Mike Clevinger, and Adam Plutko. The Indians have a 2.0 game lead for a Wild Card spot and are still just 4.0 back of the Twins in the AL Central. Computer simulations give them a 10.8% chance of winning the AL with Vegas odds at 10/1. They have a 4.8 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 20/1).
5. Minnesota Twins (70-42; Last 10: 8-2; Championship Odds: 16/1)
Projected Record: 99-63
The Twins swept the Royals to keep their lead over the Indians at 3.0 games. LHP prospect Devin Smeltzer continues to impress at the big league level and now has a 2.28 ERA in 27.2 IP in 5 appearances. Nelson Cruz had his second 3 HR game in the last 10 games and has hit 14 of his 30 homers this season over his last 21 games. Injuries are a bit of a concern for the Twins with Michael Pineda, Byron Buxton, and newly acquired Sam Dyson all going on the IL. They have a 15.7 percent chance of reaching the World Series (Odds stand at 7/1). They have a 6.4 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 16/1).
6. Atlanta Braves (66-48; Last 10: 6-4; Championship Odds: 10/1)
Projected Record: 92-70
Despite struggling lately, the Braves still hold a 6.0 game lead over the Nats and Phillies. Newly acquired CL Shane Greene gave up 4 ER over 2 IP for the Braves over the weekend after only giving up 5 ER in 38.0 IP for Detroit. SPs Julio Teheran and Max Fried have been solid as of late, and Mike Soroka continues to pitch like an ace. Their current odds of winning the NL are 9/2 and in simulations they win the conference 14.4% of the time. They have a 6 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 10/1).
7. Oakland Athletics (64-49; Last 10: 6-4 Championship Odds: 40/1)
Projected Record: 94-68
The A's are now just .5 game back of the second wild card spot after winning 6 of their last 7 games. Tanner Roark looked solid in his A's debut and could be a key piece in the rotation for a playoff run. Sean Manaea suffered a setback in his rehab, but pitching prospect AJ Puk looks close to being called up to the majors and would help in the pen this season. Their current odds of winning the AL are 20/1 and in simulations they win the conference 3.5% of the time. The odds of them winning the World Series are 40/1 and they win it all in 1.5 percent of our latest simulations.
8. Chicago Cubs (61-51; Last 10: 6-4; Championship Odds: 14/1)
Projected Record: 89-73
The Cubs have built a 2.5 game lead in the NL Central after sweeping Milwaukee and taking the first game against the A's. Getting Cole Hamels back is huge for the Cubs, as well as adding another bat in Nick Castellanos. Computer simulations give them a 19.2% chance of winning the NL with Vegas odds at 6/1. They have a 7 percent chance of winning the World Series (Odds 14/1).
9. Tampa Bay Rays (65-49; Last 10: 8-2; Championship Odds: 25/1)
Projected Record: 91-71
The Rays are suddenly hot again and got contributions from deadline acquisitions Nick Anderson, Jesus Aguilar, and Eric Sogard in their three game sweep over the Marlins. If Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell can get healthy before the postseason, the Rays could become a team to watch out for.Their current odds of winning the AL are 12/1 and in simulations they win the conference 3.2% of the time. The odds of them winning the World Series are 25/1 and they win it all in 1.4 percent of our latest simulations.
10. Boston Red Sox (60-55; Last 10: 2-8; Championship Odds: 50/1)
Projected Record: 86-76
Despite getting swept in 4 games to the Yankees over the weekend, our computers still like the Red Sox enough to keep them in the top-10 of the Power Rankings. Chris Sale and David Price both got shelled over the weekend. The Red Sox failed to address their bullpen issues at the trade deadline and at 5.5 games back of the second wild card spot, they are in serious danger of missing the playoffs coming off a World Series victory. Their projected win total is down from 92 wins on July 28. While not great, they still have an outside shot at making the playoffs (3.8%).
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
fwiw here's the 5 power rankings I use in my model equalized and averaged. Last column is the avg of first 5 and sorted by that
View attachment 41618
Seems a little odd that of the 5 I use only one has HOU #1 and is even 3rd in one while most everyone seems to think HOU is the best team. I don't exactly agree as I think it's very close between HOU, LAD, NYY especially if NY ever gets healthy
View attachment 41618
Seems a little odd that of the 5 I use only one has HOU #1 and is even 3rd in one while most everyone seems to think HOU is the best team. I don't exactly agree as I think it's very close between HOU, LAD, NYY especially if NY ever gets healthy
Yah? I’ll have to look more into this later. Was leaning Bauer/Reds
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Inspekdah
My man, Michael Jordan!
Don't let me change your mind. Plus the line looks like Reds' the sharper side.
Also check at Ray at Dodger Stadium
Big_Degenerate
sharp as a butter knife
Since 2010, MLB O/U when total >= 10 and not the first game of series after both teams scored >= 5 runs and total > previous game total: 119-66-9 (+22% O)
Past 5 seasons: 77-43-6 (+22)
This season: 25-13-3 (+25)
Add in Road Favorites whose starter had more strike outs than hits allowed in previous start: 81-48-7 (+19), Since 2005
Since 2010: 64-29-5 (+30)
Past 5 seasons: 52-23-3 (+32)
This season: 24-9-1 (+38)
Past 5 seasons: 77-43-6 (+22)
This season: 25-13-3 (+25)
Add in Road Favorites whose starter had more strike outs than hits allowed in previous start: 81-48-7 (+19), Since 2005
Since 2010: 64-29-5 (+30)
Past 5 seasons: 52-23-3 (+32)
This season: 24-9-1 (+38)
Big_Degenerate
sharp as a butter knife
This season, road favorites + high total
Total > 9: 151-96-9 (+17)
Total > 10: 62-29-2 (+30)
Not first game of series:
Total > 9: 108-72-6 (+15)
Total > 10: 45-24-1 (+25)
Total > 9: 151-96-9 (+17)
Total > 10: 62-29-2 (+30)
Not first game of series:
Total > 9: 108-72-6 (+15)
Total > 10: 45-24-1 (+25)
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
best of luck dealing with real life/emergencies.. hope all is working out as best as possible best of luck
