JPicks
Pretty much a regular
Well might as well get the obvious one out of the way.
CAVS -2 will be my biggest play to date for the 2007 season. No reason to go in depth as BAR and Marlo have covered the details. Had this game marked since this quote came out from LB:
"Teams better get their wins now against us," James said. "They're talking trash against us now because we have guys out. But when we get our guys back, it's going to be a different story."
Cavs have had two days off since they played together as a team for the first time this year. That's two days to practice as a team and go over some things they might not have been happy with in the 1st game. Nets are a disfunctional team at this point while you have LB coming off the bench to protect sideshow bob from getting booed in his season debut. That IMO is why he is a great leader and the Cavs are still right in the discussion with the C's as being the beast in the East.
So enough of that game.
TOR/IND
Very interesting game. I personally can't play this game as you have the Pacers who have played well beyond what they are given credit for and the Raptors who I consider one of the top 4 teams in the East. Don't miss the fact that the Raps have the C's up next at home followed by a big West Coast swing. I could easily see this game getting lost in the mix for them. Indy also has a lookahead to a road game vs the Heat. I honestly think the Pacers get it done here and then Indy goes and gets beat by the Heat while the Raps go home and beat the C's. I do have a lean towards the over in this one, but I'll probably pass on the whole thing.
SAC/PHI
No interest in a side here as the Kings continue to play above expecations without Martin and Bibby while the Sixers are a hot team winning 4 in a row. Probably lean Kings if I had to as Sixers played a real tight game with the TWolves and I think that might have been the end of their run. Sac still hasn't won on the road but looked solid @Den and @Bos. If they play to that same level I won't be surprised to see them pull this one off SU. Actually I may take a stab here with the Kings and that woud bring up a completely different thought.
The entire reason I love doing a thread and writeups is to break down plays. When you have to sit there and type of logical thoughts on a game often plays randomly emerge. This would be a great example.
Anyways back to my original thoughts on this one. The fact that PHI couldn't hit triple digits against Minny somewhat shows a crack in their offensive explosion over the previous four games. Really wanted to play the under here, but the 188 # is a good 5 points below what I had hoped for. I'd cautious those looking at the over here as PHI is prone to come back to earth soon and the Kings recent defense may do the trick. They've held much better offenses than the Sixers to point totals much below their averages since Martin went down.
MIL/BOS
So the Bucks did what I thought they might and beat the Magic. Unfortunately my money didn't follow my hunch on that one. I'm not sure I can express exactly how bad of a spot this is for the Bucks. West coast trip, rescheduled flights followed by bus rides, followed by a big upset over the Magic. Now they are back on the road facing the best in the East. Look one night ahead and you will see a almost certain victory for the Bucks at home vs. the TWolves. I have a very strong feeling they go to BOS and mail it in. I'll be on the C's minus the points.
ATL/DET
Not a ton of thoughts but this line opened a couple points higher than I expected. I do like the under as I'll be surprised to see both teams get out of the 80's. Only a DET offensive explosion can ruin this one and with ATL giving up 100 on their last outing I'm doubting that happens to them
two games in a row. Probably pass unless the total gets run up to >185.
LAC/MEM
Really like Memphis here. Clipps do well vs teams that like to grind and MEM doens't qualify. LAC lost by 16 @Den and 7 @SEA. Recently covered vs CHAR and NJ and both of those teams are drag em out kind of teams. MEM meanwhile has lost 5 straight and face an even more difficult schedule ahead; @ORL, GS, SAN, @DET. Another intesting angle has to do with Ruben Patterson. You'll have to look that one up. Weird shit with the Clipps waiving him after he was one of the main reasons they beat the Nets.
SEA/MIN
Like Minny, but come on. I'm not putting my hard earned cash on the Wolves as favs nor on the Sonics as only a 2 point dog on the road. Here's a website for ya if you decide to.
ORL/CHA
Another short line for the Magic on the road. I think they blow it again. The Bobcats are a really bad basketball team and I have a feeling they cover the 5. Honestly how are the Magic, 17-6 ATS, such a small fav against a bad CHA team. Beats me and I won't be putting my money down to find out either. Another game that I like the under as it seems the Magic offense is sputtering and the Bobcats will drain every shot clock, but I'll probably pass. Lots of good options on Friday to worry about a total in CHA.
NY/CHI
Love the Bulls. IMO the Knicks have actually been giving decent effort since the 1st half vs the Mavs. It's interesting to note that a decent effort by them isn't getting it done vs SEA at home. Bulls consistenly covered big #'s last year when they were rolling. Expect a 15+ victory for the Bulls. They've got 3 days following the game while the Knicks travel home to play the Nets on a B2B in a game that the Nets should be looking for some revenge. No thoughts on the total.
NOH/DAL
No line and no thoughts from me. Who the hell knows what happens here.
Completely off my radar. Both teams with huge games the following night though.
UTA/POR
I'll just copy and paste my thoughts from Friday Discussion thread.
Well I've got a pretty good rule that I won't bet on the Jazz as road favs. Same thing for DAL and a couple other at the moment. They just don't play enough defense to warrant laying chalk on the road. Blazers are extremely streaky this year. L3 in a row, W4, L 9/10, W5 in a row now. With all that said I'm not willing to put money on the Blazers without Aldridge against a team that should desperately want that game. Lean Jazz, but pass.
GS/LAL
Overly obvious schedule spot for the Warriors here. My main target here is the Warriors TT. With them off games of 95, 96 points I can't help but think they have an offensive explosion. Might consider the spread or the total but I'm clueless as to what to expect from them on the defensive end. They could completely focus on the offensive and ignore the defensive end altogether or they could just play a lights out game and win by 25. Hoping for a TT under 113 but will play it up to 116.
CAVS -2 will be my biggest play to date for the 2007 season. No reason to go in depth as BAR and Marlo have covered the details. Had this game marked since this quote came out from LB:
"Teams better get their wins now against us," James said. "They're talking trash against us now because we have guys out. But when we get our guys back, it's going to be a different story."
Cavs have had two days off since they played together as a team for the first time this year. That's two days to practice as a team and go over some things they might not have been happy with in the 1st game. Nets are a disfunctional team at this point while you have LB coming off the bench to protect sideshow bob from getting booed in his season debut. That IMO is why he is a great leader and the Cavs are still right in the discussion with the C's as being the beast in the East.
So enough of that game.
TOR/IND
Very interesting game. I personally can't play this game as you have the Pacers who have played well beyond what they are given credit for and the Raptors who I consider one of the top 4 teams in the East. Don't miss the fact that the Raps have the C's up next at home followed by a big West Coast swing. I could easily see this game getting lost in the mix for them. Indy also has a lookahead to a road game vs the Heat. I honestly think the Pacers get it done here and then Indy goes and gets beat by the Heat while the Raps go home and beat the C's. I do have a lean towards the over in this one, but I'll probably pass on the whole thing.
SAC/PHI
No interest in a side here as the Kings continue to play above expecations without Martin and Bibby while the Sixers are a hot team winning 4 in a row. Probably lean Kings if I had to as Sixers played a real tight game with the TWolves and I think that might have been the end of their run. Sac still hasn't won on the road but looked solid @Den and @Bos. If they play to that same level I won't be surprised to see them pull this one off SU. Actually I may take a stab here with the Kings and that woud bring up a completely different thought.
The entire reason I love doing a thread and writeups is to break down plays. When you have to sit there and type of logical thoughts on a game often plays randomly emerge. This would be a great example.
Anyways back to my original thoughts on this one. The fact that PHI couldn't hit triple digits against Minny somewhat shows a crack in their offensive explosion over the previous four games. Really wanted to play the under here, but the 188 # is a good 5 points below what I had hoped for. I'd cautious those looking at the over here as PHI is prone to come back to earth soon and the Kings recent defense may do the trick. They've held much better offenses than the Sixers to point totals much below their averages since Martin went down.
MIL/BOS
So the Bucks did what I thought they might and beat the Magic. Unfortunately my money didn't follow my hunch on that one. I'm not sure I can express exactly how bad of a spot this is for the Bucks. West coast trip, rescheduled flights followed by bus rides, followed by a big upset over the Magic. Now they are back on the road facing the best in the East. Look one night ahead and you will see a almost certain victory for the Bucks at home vs. the TWolves. I have a very strong feeling they go to BOS and mail it in. I'll be on the C's minus the points.
ATL/DET
Not a ton of thoughts but this line opened a couple points higher than I expected. I do like the under as I'll be surprised to see both teams get out of the 80's. Only a DET offensive explosion can ruin this one and with ATL giving up 100 on their last outing I'm doubting that happens to them
two games in a row. Probably pass unless the total gets run up to >185.
LAC/MEM
Really like Memphis here. Clipps do well vs teams that like to grind and MEM doens't qualify. LAC lost by 16 @Den and 7 @SEA. Recently covered vs CHAR and NJ and both of those teams are drag em out kind of teams. MEM meanwhile has lost 5 straight and face an even more difficult schedule ahead; @ORL, GS, SAN, @DET. Another intesting angle has to do with Ruben Patterson. You'll have to look that one up. Weird shit with the Clipps waiving him after he was one of the main reasons they beat the Nets.
SEA/MIN
Like Minny, but come on. I'm not putting my hard earned cash on the Wolves as favs nor on the Sonics as only a 2 point dog on the road. Here's a website for ya if you decide to.
ORL/CHA
Another short line for the Magic on the road. I think they blow it again. The Bobcats are a really bad basketball team and I have a feeling they cover the 5. Honestly how are the Magic, 17-6 ATS, such a small fav against a bad CHA team. Beats me and I won't be putting my money down to find out either. Another game that I like the under as it seems the Magic offense is sputtering and the Bobcats will drain every shot clock, but I'll probably pass. Lots of good options on Friday to worry about a total in CHA.
NY/CHI
Love the Bulls. IMO the Knicks have actually been giving decent effort since the 1st half vs the Mavs. It's interesting to note that a decent effort by them isn't getting it done vs SEA at home. Bulls consistenly covered big #'s last year when they were rolling. Expect a 15+ victory for the Bulls. They've got 3 days following the game while the Knicks travel home to play the Nets on a B2B in a game that the Nets should be looking for some revenge. No thoughts on the total.
NOH/DAL
No line and no thoughts from me. Who the hell knows what happens here.
Completely off my radar. Both teams with huge games the following night though.
UTA/POR
I'll just copy and paste my thoughts from Friday Discussion thread.
Well I've got a pretty good rule that I won't bet on the Jazz as road favs. Same thing for DAL and a couple other at the moment. They just don't play enough defense to warrant laying chalk on the road. Blazers are extremely streaky this year. L3 in a row, W4, L 9/10, W5 in a row now. With all that said I'm not willing to put money on the Blazers without Aldridge against a team that should desperately want that game. Lean Jazz, but pass.
GS/LAL
Overly obvious schedule spot for the Warriors here. My main target here is the Warriors TT. With them off games of 95, 96 points I can't help but think they have an offensive explosion. Might consider the spread or the total but I'm clueless as to what to expect from them on the defensive end. They could completely focus on the offensive and ignore the defensive end altogether or they could just play a lights out game and win by 25. Hoping for a TT under 113 but will play it up to 116.
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