Feedback needed on this analysis

[Br@ssknux]

Guys, I'm a long time member of the forum but I don't post much due to time constraints. Also, I've never posted my plays on here because I've always thought I'd jinx myself. I've been pretty good ATS over the years though, and I send out an email every week to a bunch of buddies for picks for the week along with the backup as to why I'm picking that side so my buddies(and 67 year old Dad mostly) can make up their own minds. This year, especially the last couple weeks have been good, and although there are a million cappers that post picks on the net, very few provide the reasoning behind their picks. We've got a few here, Kyle is the king, but I wanted to get some feedback on what you guys think of these.

So here is what I sent out earlier this week. Some of the lines eventually moved, but you get the drift. I'll break them up one post at a time, cuz it's long


@Indiana +3.5 v Penn State: Well, if the Hoosiers beat Penn State it will be the first time in history, as they have been shut out all time against the Nits. (0-16). I also think they see this as a chance to finally do something against a respected opponent, and if they are going to be anything other than a Big ten doormat, they have to start winning games like this that are do-able at home. Penn State has throttled a couple of weak sister MAC schools in recent weeks, but lost outright while allowing 500+ at home to UCF and struggled with Syracuse in the opener. I can tell you that Indiana has a much better offense than UCF. Like I said, I think the motivational edge is with Indiana, a home dog due to their tough loss against Mizzou last week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Yikes on this one....can't win em all, and if you're going to be wrong, might as well be 63 points off......

Maryland +17 @Florida State (Buy it): As it stands right now, this one is sitting at 16.5 and moving up. It opened there, then fell to 14, now is inching back up again. At this point, there is too much value in the line for Maryland, who has looked very good against questionable competition on both sides of the ball. It appears as though after an initial rough patch, Randy Edsall has figured things out for the Terps, and his QB CJ Brown has been outstanding so far this year. I am not thrilled about going up against efficiency machine Jameis Winston for FSU, but they have not played much competition either, and the whispers are that they will struggle against good offenses. Well, so far, Maryland is the 14th ranked overall offense in the country and 9th via the pass, so they qualify. Even if they don't compete, and I think they will, especially in a noon snoozer for the Noles, they will be poised for the backdoor as their offense can score. A bit too many points here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Ball State +5 @ Virginia: I can't tell you how bad Virginia has been on offense. They have a completely incompetent quarterback who has no clue what he doing out there. That's putting it rather simply I know, but it's accurate. I think his name is Watford. He has a 3/6 ratio and has thrown for 684 yards on 86 completions this year. That's anemic. Granted, Ball State's defense is no great shakes, but they can stop this popcorn offense. Although Virginia has a very good defense(other than the Oregon game, but who gives you crap for allowing a lot of yards to Oregon? Not me, I can assure you), but Ball State is very balanced on offense, and has a QB, Keith Wenning who can light up the scoreboard,. I think they'll struggle some, but will still get theirs, and if they do, they have a great shot to win because UVA cannot trade scores with them. Ball State is a pretty good program with some good players. UVA is the type of program that loses games like this. I like the Cards for the outright win here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Bad beat on this one, as Kyle Flood went into turtle mode, and they tackled like most FBS schools do, which is to say, horribly.

Rutgers -5 @SMU: On paper this is a bit of a mismatch. Rutgers has a sizable edge in just about every category, and SMU has Garret Gilbert. That would be almost enough to end the comment right there, but I have to talk some more about how bad SMU sucks. They are 95th overall in offense, 104th in rushing offense(Zack Line would look good in their backfield if he had another year) and 96th in pass efficiency. All of this against a defense in Rutgers that has played solidly. Rutgers is also a bit more proficient in the passing game than they've been in the past, and SMU has struggled mightily in that area.

 

[Br@ssknux]

@Iowa -1 v Michigan State: Both of these offenses are going to have a difficult time scoring on the other, but Michigan State's offense is truly putrid, with no ability to throw the ball whatsoever. Iowa isn't dynamic on offense, but at least they're adequate, ranked 57th in YPC rushing and 44th passing nationwide. MSU is dead last in passer rating, and that includes games with USF and Western Michigan. Now they go on the troad to face the 13th ranked defense in yards per play and will do so in a hostile environment. Although I love MSU's defense, unless they pitch a shutout or score a couple times themselves, this looks like a tough assignment to me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

@Virginia Tech -7 v North Carolina: VT has been a tale of two teams this year. They are rock solid on defense, and weaker than circus lemonade
on offense. However, their offense seems to be geting a bit better, and at least LOOKED a bit better last week in their Thursday nighter against Georgia Tech. QB Logan Thomas is running better also, and that's good because they can't run it on anyone with RB Trey Edmunds, who appears to be unable to make a move or break a tackle(Bad combination there). VT hasn't given up anything on defense to anyone, including Alabama, who they held to 3.32 yards per play. UNC completely quit last week at home against ECU. If things start going bad, expect more of the same this week. Perhaps Fedora gets them up off the mat and they start the road to salvation this week, but this seems to be a pretty tough venue and an even tougher defense to start something like that.

 

[Br@ssknux]

@Marshall -14 (Buy if necessary) v UTSA: I actually like UTSA a bit, but this is a terrible matchup for them. Offensively, they've had some explosiveness, but believe it or not, Marshall has a very good defense this year, ranked 9th overall in YPP so far. Defensively, UTSA has struggled mightily against the spread, allowing 600+ to Oklahoma St and almost 500 to Houston. Marshall's Rahkeem Cato looks to be right on par with those teams, so they should have a lot of success. I can see this one being out of hand early, and I think the spread is low enough to where there won't be much concern about the back door.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Not a great call on this one, but who knew half their offense would blow their knees out, right??

Georgia -10 @Tennessee: (buy it if necessary): I understand this is an absolutely terrible spot for Georgia, and the musings have had great success in the past fading the Dawgs on their trip to Knoxville in the past, but I just can't see how Tennessee competes in this one. Offensively, Butch Jones is going to need more time and a bunch of new players before he can fashion anything that can move the ball on a real live SEC defense, or at least one that has the talent that Georgia has. Georgia's defense is like the rest of the defenses in the SEC, completely incompetent against any kind of downfield passing threat, but luckily for them, Tennessee has no inkling of one of those. Tennessee also employs one of those brain dead defensive units, as their 94th ranking in yards per play would suggest. Even though Georgia is coming off the LSU game, I don't think they typically have much problem getting up for Tennessee, and this year it won't take much of an effort to beat them. I can't see how the Vols can stay within 10 even if they play a great game. Murray is too good, and it's inevitable that he'll carve them up.

 

[Br@ssknux]

@Wake Forest +7.5 v NC State: Although things sometimes change with new coaching staffs, it cannot be ignored that NC State is now 0-13 in their last 13 contests as a road favorite. Also, with Wake coming off a horrific shellacking at the hands of Clemson last week, we have great line value with the Deacs, who have not lost to NC State in Winston Salem since 2001. NCState has a terrible offense, and one of the things that Wake has done well this year is pick off passes, as they have 7 in 5 games, and NC State Qb Pete Thomas, who sports a 1/5 ratio. Tanner Price and Michael Campanero can get things going at times, and I think they'll do it here. If Dave Doeren has things turned around, maybe they'll kick this trend, but I think it's going to take Doeren awhile, and this NC State team has proven unworthy of laying 7 on the road in conference, at least to me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Big time ouch on this one, but hat's off to Fresno I guess. Like I said before, if you're going to miss, miss big.

@Idaho +28 v Fresno State: This line looks a bit much to me. Idaho started the season as one of the worst teams in FBS, but has really turned things around recently. They hung with NIU at home 3 weeks ago, piling up almost 500 yards, and beat Temple last week as a 7 point dog. Now they face Fresno, and while Derek Carr is almost certainly going to carve them up, Fresno has given up 51, 40 and 37 points in their 3 FBS games to Rutgers, Boise and Hawaii. In their one FCS game, they were outgained by Cal Poly. Last week, they escaped Hawaii 42-37 and gave up 378 yards passing to a bunch of clowns on the island. That is never an easy logistical road trip, and now they have to turn around and travel to Idaho and cover a 27 point spread? People are talking about Fresno as a potential BCS buster. There is no chance of that, as this team hasn't been impressive in my opinion at all. It actually wouldn't stun me if Idaho is ahead late in this one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

@Oklahoma -8 v TCU: I really have no idea how this line is as low as it is. Maybe they think TCU is going to hold Oklahoma down to about 21 points or something, but I can't see a scenario(a likely one anyway) where TCU is able to generate enough offense to keep this one close. Like some of these other games, it's a terrible spot for the favorite, as OU is coming off the ND game and has Texas on deck, but the line should not be adjusted that much for a bad spot. Under Trevonne Boykin, TCU is awful in the passing game, and OU's defense is strong enough against the run, especially in Norman to not allow that mediocre collection of running backs TCU has to do much damage. TCU only gained 335 yards at home against SMU, so that score (48-17) was inflated by a lot of intangibles that won't be in play this week. I'm still not a huge fan of Blake Bell, but I think OU only has to come up with an average effort to take care of TCU by double digits, especially since their chances of scoring on defense are very good.

 

[Br@ssknux]

LSU -9 @Mississippi St: Here we go again....another favorite who has a lower line due to a terrible spot. LSU comes off the Georgia game and has Florida on deck, while MSU is off a bye. Ok....but the line has been adjusted too far, especially when the matchup is good for LSU. LSU appears to me, like all these brainless, kamikaze defenses, to be terribly susceptible to a good passing attack. Well, I don't think that Mississippi State has the chops to cause them much concern in that area. In these types of matchups, MSU tends to veer back toward the "offense in a phone booth" mentality and fail to stretch the field. Remember that they scored only 3 against Oklahoma State. On the flip side, Meatburger has proven he can get the job done through the air, and I think MSU will have a terrible time trying to stop them in any offensive phase. I think this one might be close for awhile, but I will be very surprised if MSU keeps this one within a one score game.

 

[Br@ssknux]

@Auburn +3 v Ole Miss: Again, I think we are all getting ahead of ourselves with ole Miss here. I like this team, but liked them a lot better when people weren't expecting them to beat Bama at Bama or favored on the road against a much improved Auburn team. Remember that Vandy had them beat in week 1. Statistically, this gamwe shakes down to be a slight edge to Auburn in most categories, and like I've said previously, I don't trust Bo Wallace to be able to win games like some of these other SEC QBs can. Ole Miss struggles to stop the run, and that's Auburn's forte. based on reality, I just think the wrong team is favored here. Auburn remains a very tough place to go into and win.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Notre Dame +6 v Arizona State: Although I have a severe distaste for trusting my money with any Tommy Rees led Notre Dame team, this is almost ridiculous line value. Arizona State is pretty good, and I am high on them based on what they have back, but my zeal for betting them vanishes when they play away from Sun Devil stadium. The took care of USC the same day that ND coughed one up to Oklahoma, so the line is where it is. I don't think ND is inferior to Arizona State however, and I think the Irish have a good chance to move the ball efficiently on ASU if they stick to the run. I do not see ASU as better than ND on a neutral field. Maybe in tempe, you could justify laying with ASU, but not here. This is a 50-/50 game, maybe even 60/40 ND, so I'll take the points.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Washington +8 @ Stanford: This line keeps going up. I might be wrong, but I think these two teams are completely evenly matched. I happen to think that Washington is one of the top 5 or 6 teams in the country based on how they've played so far, especially on defense. Everyone they've played has ended up almost 200 yards under their season average, and we know that they are more than capable on offense. I think everyone is looking at the Arizona State game for Stanford a couple weeks ago, and people want to get in on that action as they equate Washington and Arizona State as a couple of good home/bad road teams. This is not even remotely the case...Washington is a much better team than Arizona State. EVERYONE is all over Stanford on this game, including all the experts. Washington beat Stanford last year when their entire team was banged up, so they know they can do it, and will have a ton of motivation on their side. I see this one coming down to the wire. Stay up for this one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

@Baylor -28 v West Virginia: I am not getting in the way of this juggernaut until they show that they aren't thre greatest show on turf. Qb Bryce Petty has completed 50 passes this year. He's got over 1,000 yards. More than 20 per completion for the Bears this year, and they are running it for 300+ yards per game as well. Defensively, they are allowing almost nothing, and have been off 2 out of the last 3 weeks, so they are chomping at the bit. They've played nobody, but they've also absolutely obliterated all those nobodies. I don't think WV gets in their way...this one might be covered by halftime.

 

[Br@ssknux]

At the end, I always send out games I like, but for whatever reason don't feel good enough about to put the full unit on. Referred to as the "also rans":

Others: I think BC will handle Army (-12) as they get comfortable under Steve Adazzio......I'm a little worried about the Illini getting only 8 because I think the backup at Nebraska is as good as Taylor Martinez, and although I think the Illini will have success on offense, they have to show they can score points on the road, and I think they'll give up 40+ as well with that defense....Everyone should fade Miami(OH), even against dreck like Central Michigan (-3)....I have a feeling Rice (+3) is going to win at Tulsa, as the Hurricane has the look of a doomed squad.....Don't be surprised is Syracuse(+14) keeps it close with Clemson in the dome. I'm too scared of Syracuse's weakness in pass defense to go too crazy with that one though.....Have a feeling Bill Snyder(+14) gets back on his roll as a covering machine at Okie St this week....UCF is in a bad spot coming off that tough loss to South Carolina. Now they face Memphis(+9) who looks much improved, especially on defense. they might have a dog fight there.....Continue playing Oregon (-39!!!) but this week I can't make it a musing because I think Colorado has some guns on offense and I like their coach. Would typically be taking those points, but I'm not dumb enough to walk out in front of a freight train....If the line goes any higher (+12.5), I'll be on Arkansas, who I think has enough offense to hang with the Gators in the swamp at this point in the Gators offensive existence. I like Tyler Murphy though.... South Carolina(-21) will probably name the score with Kentucky and I like Mizzou(+1) to beat Vandy. Sorry for the typos....gotta run. No time for spell check....

 

[Br@ssknux]

Sorry for this self serving exercise, but maybe you guys like the analysis. Appreciate the feedback if anyone has time. (I played a lot of games this past weekend...more than usual)

 

[twinkie13]

Can I get on the email list please?

 

[twinkie13]

In my eyes you are one of the sharpest dudes here and wish you would post more.

If not I will gladly read your emails bro:thumbsup2:

 

[UTSUX]

Can I get on the email list please?

DITTO

 

[gps_3]

@Baylor -28 v West Virginia: I am not getting in the way of this juggernaut until they show that they aren't thre greatest show on turf. Qb Bryce Petty has completed 50 passes this year. He's got over 1,000 yards. More than 20 per completion for the Bears this year, and they are running it for 300+ yards per game as well. Defensively, they are allowing almost nothing, and have been off 2 out of the last 3 weeks, so they are chomping at the bit. They've played nobody, but they've also absolutely obliterated all those nobodies. I don't think WV gets in their way...this one might be covered by halftime.

Great analysis on all and I agree wholeheartedly on Baylor. I've been on Baylor game and team total over every game and believe they've all hit rather easily. Definitely think you should post these analyses going forward. Best of luck moving forward

 

[RetroVK]

good stuff. you don't owe it to anyone to share but it would help people. you nailed a lot of games last week it appears. I fell for the terps too ..sigh. the more we all share, the better off we all are. I am unfortunately strapped for time this season to contribute as much as normal but recommend sharing your ideas because not only does it help others think of angles they missed but it can often lead to someone posting and shedding light on something you have missed. I used to have "talk me off" leans in my thread just to get discussion so I could learn more ... or maybe get that one piece of info to push me into the better EV decision. the other thing it does is it improves the quality of the entire forum and quality thought breeds quality thought... it will bring other people to the forum who might not otherwise come ...

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks for all the feedback all, VK, GPS, UTSUX, twinkie, et al.

Totally agree Kyle with the exchange of ideas. I've always been too much of a wuss to post anything, and I have a major time crunch too...so much so that I generally don't get emails out to people until early sat morning, and tons of line value is lost by then. However, I think I'm going to try to get something in here if possible...In the past, my years were pretty consistent. If I good off to a good start and had some good weeks, it usually stuck for the year, and if I was bad, it showed all year. So far this year is good... 12-4 last week, 10-6 this week. We'll see what happens going forward, but you are all great cappers on this site, and it's been the best site for degenerates like me for many years.

 

[Timh]

Brass - I have always enjoyed your posts over the year and think you have a lot to offer. If you have time it would be great to see you post more often.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks Tim. Hope the Terps can recover, because they are going to be bettable as long as CJ comes back ok. I'm an Illinois alum, so welcome to the Big Ten

 

[CollegeKingRex]

brass, good shit, hope to see you post next week. don't buy the jinx hype. if you e-mail to 1 person, you can share with all

 

[ManchesterUk]

Brass that stuffs great mate.
I dont know anything compared to the lads on here,but I watch, read and listen to as much as possible then make my own mind-up,by the time I think I got a grip on a couple of teams the seasons over and we just repeat the next year.
Post them thoughts pal,that jinx thing is b/s,,,or mail me too

GL :shake:

 

[Br@ssknux]

Rexy, thanks. You're one of the reasons I came found this site originally. Thanks for all you do.

ManU....You're tha man! Love the avatar. Jags rolled up 600+ in offense this week, tough beat. I think Memphis had the toughest beat of the week though.