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We Must Protect Our Democracy
@TahoeLegend I'll get it started. Here is Bet the Board and I'll add as I complete.
www.bettheboardpodcast.com
They won again last week on 1H Under in PSU/OSU and are 6-2
Skipped ahead for Best Bet: Purdue +3 up to -125 buying the 1/2 point. [this buy is gone for me]. Explains it's worth it in a game with this low a Total of 39.
Tennessee v KY +3.5/52
119th meeting. Vols are 83-26-9 and 8-2 since Stoops started at KY. This will be the 2nd consecutive road game for Vols in losses to Florida and Bama, both by 2 scores. Last week vs Bama they had just 74 yards on 23 carries. KY is off a bye.
Powers on Vols O vs KY D: Will it be 1stH Bama Joe Milton or 2H Milton? Milton is “very avg, not very good.” Can they run agst KY? Walker up front for KY good. But, KY D has been exposed, Georgia getting over 600 yds and in last 3 qtrs vs Mizzu Tigers score 38 points. Yet, Milton is too inconsistent to trust him. There will be opportunity for Vols in passing game – KY D is #121 vs the pass, a little better in epa vs pass at #70. There will be shots to take for Vols and he thinks that Vols can find some success.
Payne on KY O vs Vol D: KY has been working hard on 3rd down plays on the bye week. Health of KY is trending positive. Ray Davis, rb, is a machine but Devin Leary looks like Ray Charles in passing. Hard game to handicap. He says “At -3 the value on Vols, if it gets to 4.5 some interest on KY…. Difficult handicap…KY starting at 5-0 was one of the most fraudulent teams in power 5.” Rumors that KY may play with higher pace (rumor only), but they have to do something different. The Mizzu D is roughly at same level as Vols, probably a tick below and KY only got “30% of available yards, despite getting Ray Davis going with 65% rushing success rate as a team” [I found this an interesting comment]. So “on paper Vols should be able to contain KY run game.” Vols one of Top 10 Ds in line yards allowed. “I don’t know if Davis can do it all himself in this spot….have to get Leary going in throw game. It has not been existent to this point.” Leary has 7 turnover worthy throws, 68% accuracy, 64 QBR. He’s completed less than 48% agst SEC competition with 6 TDs and 4 ints with ‘tons’ of batted balls b/c of his size. His receivers give him no help - 15% drop rate. Leary’s lost most passing yds in SEC due to drops, and KY’s top 2 receivers are #1 & #2 in nation in drop rate. “I just don’t see a consistent path for Ky offense” [unless KY is improved off the bye or Vols are gassed from Bama game]
OU @ Kansas “OU a double-digit favorite” (line I am seeing in OU -9) / 65:
Kansas homecoming. Jayhawks with 19 straight losses to Top 10 opposition, last win was 2008 beating VaTech. OU off win vs UCF and Sooners have only won their last 2 games by 6 total points; their first 5 wins were by 14+. Kansas has covered their last 6 games vs OU, but last year was first year they were a dog of less than 3 TDs. OU leads Big 12 in passing offense, 325 per game, 7th nationally. OU has OkState on deck.
Powers OU Offense vs Kansas Defense: OU has significant edge and I expect OU offense to show some things this week. But, “I am not overly impressed….I see a good offense, not great.” UCF OU favored by 17. Gabriel has great counting stats and is #4 QBR. Thing that concerns me are the running backs…Marcus Major leads the way. Pass game with Nick Anderson leading 24 yds per, 8 TDs on 16 catches. EPA per pass is much better than epa per rush. Texas ran ball well in Kansas game and perhaps OU will do the same to gain confidence in their run game. Pathway for KU to have some success on D are Logan and Bryant in the 2dary and perhaps turnovers? “I will be stunned if OU is not well into the 30s on offense and it will be an abject failure if they don’t score 35ish, at least.”
Payne KU Offense vs OU Defense: Kansas ranks among leaders in yards per play, 3rd down conversion and rushing offense, Devon Neal at rb is a weapon. Kansas has to start fast, that’s the hope. “Eventually the talent gap is large” Jason Bean at qb for KU. Bottom line he thinks KU has to take shots and they cannot beat OU down to down. OU out of TOP 95 in explosives allowed, and UCF had success. " I am lower on both teams than market, Both teams are relative sells for me….The numbers guys will want OU, the informational guys lean towards Kansas. The vibe I’ve been getting is if it is KU, more so 1H rather than entire game.”
Oregon @ Utah +6.5/48:
A win for Ducks at Utah would be their first since 2016. Oregon leads series 16-5 and won 6 of last 10. Utah been winner in 2 of last 3. Ducks escape with 3 point win last year. Home team covered 6 straight. Last 3 games gone under the total 43.4 scoring avg with the pregame total closer to 59. Nix leads nation/history FBS in starts and has completed 78% of passes thru 1st 7 games. Bucky Irving good rb. But, step up in class with Utah D.
Payne on Ducks Offense vs Utah Defense: “Good on good and will have largest impact on game.” We have called Ducks offense a ‘phone booth offense’ and I think it helps them this week and is their path to success. Bo Nix short throw game is the X factor. Go back to 1st game where Mertz, Gators, was 25 for 29 on throws inside 9 yards vs Utah. Mertz and Nix have a lot in common, bad ADOTS but both #1 & #2 in adjusted accuracy. Nix leads country with 85% accuracy rate, he’s been pinpoint thru 8 weeks. You can run a little bit on Utes, outside top 35 in rushing success rate allowed, outside the top 90 in explosive run rate allowed and saw some of that last week vs USC. Utah has also been susceptible to standard down passes (1st and ten, 2nd and 7, 3rd and 4). Agst Florida on standard downs Utah gave up a 65% passing success to Mertz, Florida cud just not score in the green zone, 2 points per trip. Utah beat USC as 7 point dog, but USC did find success doing same thing as Florida, Williams had 60% success rate throwing on standard downs. Utah has one of best home field advantages in college football. Payne says Utah been fortunate in QBs fortunate they’ve faced. “Oregon and Bo Nix might just have an offense that can grind their way to a win.” Utah has lost Barton, linebacker, from their D last week….could have impact. "Looking at metrics you can see why Oregon favored by 6.5, to me they’re best team in PAC" 12. But, Utah just seems to find ways. I do not know if they win by margin but can find success. He hints at USC and Willimas abandoned game plan and playing ‘backyard football” was significant to Utes perfoemance.Weather an issue? Temps in the 30s getting down into 20s?
Powers on Utah Offense vs Duck Defense: Bryson Barnes for Utes played well last week, to say the least. Utah relies on run, over 70% last week. “Obviously edge Oregon here but not as big as what it would have been a couple weeks ago.” Utah is outside of top 70 in most counting stats on offense, but 2 weeks ago they were in the 100s. They have found something agst Cal and then USC nearly 500 yds of O. The guy really giving them the punch is Vaki (gave great stats). Vaki has helped Jackson, the big back. The Utes O line improved but facing a better D line, and the pass blocking not very good rated #132, second to last in country. Oregon D is able to get to QB, 25 sacks the last 6 games. Ducks have not allowed 100 yards rushing in last 5 games – but have faced most pass happy teams in country; Hawaii, Colorado, Washington, Wazzu. Ducks up front will be tested here, they face Utes who will run right at them. “I don’t see a lot of ‘dudes’ on Oregon defense.” Oregon’s toughest test, “I am still going to give the edge to Oregon here, but this is one where the gap has closed.”
Georgia @ Florida +14.5/46-47
Last 8 seasons the game winner represents East in SEC Championship. GA 24 straight wins, 32 straight vs unranked. 4 SEC teams GA beaten (Scar, Auburn. KY and Vandy) have a combined 3-14 SEC record. GA has won last 2 vs Gators by 20+ for first time since 1942-1945. Gators looking to start 6-2 (after going 6-7 in last 2 full seasons) and 4-1 in SEC where they were 3-5 last year. Gators have 8 straight losses agst #1 teams. Last win was ‘08 vs Bama. Unranked Florida has beaten ranked GA 3 times – 1986, 2002 and 2014. Gators on a nice ATS run last 12 games agst ranked teams 8-3-1; GA is 1-5-1 ATS this year. Brock Bowers done for season. Delp replaces and #1 TE recruit.
Powers on GA Offense vs Gator D: Bowers is a 1.5 point loss for GA offense. I’ve never before downgraded a team this much for loss of a TE. Carson Beck 74% and 300 yds per game, but GA starting QBs making their first Florida starts are 1-9 this century, Jake Fromm the exception. “Certainly, and edge to GA here even w/o Bowers.” GA has had a bye week. GA going to lean on ground game and Beck has been fine and O been in Top 10 and Top 2o even in analytics. O line needs to step up and play better. Loves Gator D coordinator. But #85 in country in explosives allowed and average agst run and pass…..”its tough getting the KY game out of my mind where KY pounded for 300+ yds running.”
Payne on Gator O vs GA D: Florida has given up 19 sacks, 4th most in conference, Mertz pressured on 34% of drop backs. Mertz has short pass game [see Utes discussion] Pearsall is deep threat. GA not faced real pass Os and when they gave up 14 in 1H to Scary, 21 to UAB in game, and 20 to Vandy. Can Gators make it a game? Give credit to Mertz this season. Napier has made it as easy as possible with play action and motion. Gators schedule has helped and every team they have faced has been downgraded since start of season. GA is no exception and he has downgraded them 5.5 points since season started. GA strength of schedule is barely in top 100. Kirby refuses to load the box…maybe he will change this week, it should. Gator O line not good on run. GA allowing 7% greater pass success rate when motion is used and Gators use it at high level. Mertz has to threaten occasionally to keep GA offense. GA is relatively impossible to run on , but their vulnerable areas are outside and btw A&B gap where Gators have most of their success. Gators can be annoying to GA if Kirby does not load the box. So, the way Gators play with slow pace and clock maybe has way to keep game closer, but if they do not stay ahead of down and distance it could get ugly.. Gators abject disaster on late downs and horrific on pass protection on known passing downs. “When you look at this there is kinda a path, but Florida is threading the needle on O and then you cannot turn it over.”
Powers' Non-power 5 is Troy @ Texas State +5.5/52.5: I am seeing +7/53, Powers lost on FAU last week and 3-1 last 4. Keep it simple he takes Troy -4.5 which is long gone. TX State has lost 4 of last 5 ATS. Major step up in class here.
Ohio State @ Wisky +14.5/43.5
Badgers have not beaten OSU in more than 13 years, 2010.
Powers on Buckeye O vs Badger D: Powers does not see it for Buckeye’s O this year [exception Harrison] and Kyle McCord. He does not throw it to open receivers except Harrison. Day took a knee at end of 1H with McCord which he would not have done with QB he had confidence in. I am keeping this short, not a lot of confidence in overall offense. The back-up QB, Devon Brown, who OSU uses in goal line situations is out for few weeks. How does that change them? They will not put up 45 on the Wisky D. Stover at TE needs more targets. Wisky defense is “good, not a ton of dudes…Ga Southern went up and down the field.” Not impressed with Wisky D against Iowa and Illinois. All that said, "Edge to OSU here definitely agst Wisky."
Payne on Badger O vs OSU D: Illinois best D lineman, Newton, was ejected which helped Badgers in the 4th qtr comeback vs Illini. Newton may be #1 D lineman in NFL draft. “Braedyn Locke, oof.” High recruit. Rumors are he’s better in practice than Mordeci. “I don’t see a path for Wisky.” Burke for OSU at cornerback is best in country, should be back. Locke in 2d start cannot lead effective drives. He gives stats. Locke is small and cannot handle pressure. Locke fumbled 3 times in 6 qtrs. The O line cannot get the push needed. “Tough for me to back Wisky that was outscored by Iowa at home, was trailing Illini by multiple scores and had a 95 yd pick 6 to beat Rutgers and were not dominant agst Ga Southern and Buffalo, honestly.”
College Football Week 9 Picks and Predictions - Bet The Board Podcast
Todd Fuhrman, Payne, Brad Powers Preview College Football Week 9 and deliver Metrics, Matchups, Picks, Predictions for Georgia vs. Florida
www.bettheboardpodcast.com
They won again last week on 1H Under in PSU/OSU and are 6-2
Skipped ahead for Best Bet: Purdue +3 up to -125 buying the 1/2 point. [this buy is gone for me]. Explains it's worth it in a game with this low a Total of 39.
Tennessee v KY +3.5/52
119th meeting. Vols are 83-26-9 and 8-2 since Stoops started at KY. This will be the 2nd consecutive road game for Vols in losses to Florida and Bama, both by 2 scores. Last week vs Bama they had just 74 yards on 23 carries. KY is off a bye.
Powers on Vols O vs KY D: Will it be 1stH Bama Joe Milton or 2H Milton? Milton is “very avg, not very good.” Can they run agst KY? Walker up front for KY good. But, KY D has been exposed, Georgia getting over 600 yds and in last 3 qtrs vs Mizzu Tigers score 38 points. Yet, Milton is too inconsistent to trust him. There will be opportunity for Vols in passing game – KY D is #121 vs the pass, a little better in epa vs pass at #70. There will be shots to take for Vols and he thinks that Vols can find some success.
Payne on KY O vs Vol D: KY has been working hard on 3rd down plays on the bye week. Health of KY is trending positive. Ray Davis, rb, is a machine but Devin Leary looks like Ray Charles in passing. Hard game to handicap. He says “At -3 the value on Vols, if it gets to 4.5 some interest on KY…. Difficult handicap…KY starting at 5-0 was one of the most fraudulent teams in power 5.” Rumors that KY may play with higher pace (rumor only), but they have to do something different. The Mizzu D is roughly at same level as Vols, probably a tick below and KY only got “30% of available yards, despite getting Ray Davis going with 65% rushing success rate as a team” [I found this an interesting comment]. So “on paper Vols should be able to contain KY run game.” Vols one of Top 10 Ds in line yards allowed. “I don’t know if Davis can do it all himself in this spot….have to get Leary going in throw game. It has not been existent to this point.” Leary has 7 turnover worthy throws, 68% accuracy, 64 QBR. He’s completed less than 48% agst SEC competition with 6 TDs and 4 ints with ‘tons’ of batted balls b/c of his size. His receivers give him no help - 15% drop rate. Leary’s lost most passing yds in SEC due to drops, and KY’s top 2 receivers are #1 & #2 in nation in drop rate. “I just don’t see a consistent path for Ky offense” [unless KY is improved off the bye or Vols are gassed from Bama game]
OU @ Kansas “OU a double-digit favorite” (line I am seeing in OU -9) / 65:
Kansas homecoming. Jayhawks with 19 straight losses to Top 10 opposition, last win was 2008 beating VaTech. OU off win vs UCF and Sooners have only won their last 2 games by 6 total points; their first 5 wins were by 14+. Kansas has covered their last 6 games vs OU, but last year was first year they were a dog of less than 3 TDs. OU leads Big 12 in passing offense, 325 per game, 7th nationally. OU has OkState on deck.
Powers OU Offense vs Kansas Defense: OU has significant edge and I expect OU offense to show some things this week. But, “I am not overly impressed….I see a good offense, not great.” UCF OU favored by 17. Gabriel has great counting stats and is #4 QBR. Thing that concerns me are the running backs…Marcus Major leads the way. Pass game with Nick Anderson leading 24 yds per, 8 TDs on 16 catches. EPA per pass is much better than epa per rush. Texas ran ball well in Kansas game and perhaps OU will do the same to gain confidence in their run game. Pathway for KU to have some success on D are Logan and Bryant in the 2dary and perhaps turnovers? “I will be stunned if OU is not well into the 30s on offense and it will be an abject failure if they don’t score 35ish, at least.”
Payne KU Offense vs OU Defense: Kansas ranks among leaders in yards per play, 3rd down conversion and rushing offense, Devon Neal at rb is a weapon. Kansas has to start fast, that’s the hope. “Eventually the talent gap is large” Jason Bean at qb for KU. Bottom line he thinks KU has to take shots and they cannot beat OU down to down. OU out of TOP 95 in explosives allowed, and UCF had success. " I am lower on both teams than market, Both teams are relative sells for me….The numbers guys will want OU, the informational guys lean towards Kansas. The vibe I’ve been getting is if it is KU, more so 1H rather than entire game.”
Oregon @ Utah +6.5/48:
A win for Ducks at Utah would be their first since 2016. Oregon leads series 16-5 and won 6 of last 10. Utah been winner in 2 of last 3. Ducks escape with 3 point win last year. Home team covered 6 straight. Last 3 games gone under the total 43.4 scoring avg with the pregame total closer to 59. Nix leads nation/history FBS in starts and has completed 78% of passes thru 1st 7 games. Bucky Irving good rb. But, step up in class with Utah D.
Payne on Ducks Offense vs Utah Defense: “Good on good and will have largest impact on game.” We have called Ducks offense a ‘phone booth offense’ and I think it helps them this week and is their path to success. Bo Nix short throw game is the X factor. Go back to 1st game where Mertz, Gators, was 25 for 29 on throws inside 9 yards vs Utah. Mertz and Nix have a lot in common, bad ADOTS but both #1 & #2 in adjusted accuracy. Nix leads country with 85% accuracy rate, he’s been pinpoint thru 8 weeks. You can run a little bit on Utes, outside top 35 in rushing success rate allowed, outside the top 90 in explosive run rate allowed and saw some of that last week vs USC. Utah has also been susceptible to standard down passes (1st and ten, 2nd and 7, 3rd and 4). Agst Florida on standard downs Utah gave up a 65% passing success to Mertz, Florida cud just not score in the green zone, 2 points per trip. Utah beat USC as 7 point dog, but USC did find success doing same thing as Florida, Williams had 60% success rate throwing on standard downs. Utah has one of best home field advantages in college football. Payne says Utah been fortunate in QBs fortunate they’ve faced. “Oregon and Bo Nix might just have an offense that can grind their way to a win.” Utah has lost Barton, linebacker, from their D last week….could have impact. "Looking at metrics you can see why Oregon favored by 6.5, to me they’re best team in PAC" 12. But, Utah just seems to find ways. I do not know if they win by margin but can find success. He hints at USC and Willimas abandoned game plan and playing ‘backyard football” was significant to Utes perfoemance.Weather an issue? Temps in the 30s getting down into 20s?
Powers on Utah Offense vs Duck Defense: Bryson Barnes for Utes played well last week, to say the least. Utah relies on run, over 70% last week. “Obviously edge Oregon here but not as big as what it would have been a couple weeks ago.” Utah is outside of top 70 in most counting stats on offense, but 2 weeks ago they were in the 100s. They have found something agst Cal and then USC nearly 500 yds of O. The guy really giving them the punch is Vaki (gave great stats). Vaki has helped Jackson, the big back. The Utes O line improved but facing a better D line, and the pass blocking not very good rated #132, second to last in country. Oregon D is able to get to QB, 25 sacks the last 6 games. Ducks have not allowed 100 yards rushing in last 5 games – but have faced most pass happy teams in country; Hawaii, Colorado, Washington, Wazzu. Ducks up front will be tested here, they face Utes who will run right at them. “I don’t see a lot of ‘dudes’ on Oregon defense.” Oregon’s toughest test, “I am still going to give the edge to Oregon here, but this is one where the gap has closed.”
Georgia @ Florida +14.5/46-47
Last 8 seasons the game winner represents East in SEC Championship. GA 24 straight wins, 32 straight vs unranked. 4 SEC teams GA beaten (Scar, Auburn. KY and Vandy) have a combined 3-14 SEC record. GA has won last 2 vs Gators by 20+ for first time since 1942-1945. Gators looking to start 6-2 (after going 6-7 in last 2 full seasons) and 4-1 in SEC where they were 3-5 last year. Gators have 8 straight losses agst #1 teams. Last win was ‘08 vs Bama. Unranked Florida has beaten ranked GA 3 times – 1986, 2002 and 2014. Gators on a nice ATS run last 12 games agst ranked teams 8-3-1; GA is 1-5-1 ATS this year. Brock Bowers done for season. Delp replaces and #1 TE recruit.
Powers on GA Offense vs Gator D: Bowers is a 1.5 point loss for GA offense. I’ve never before downgraded a team this much for loss of a TE. Carson Beck 74% and 300 yds per game, but GA starting QBs making their first Florida starts are 1-9 this century, Jake Fromm the exception. “Certainly, and edge to GA here even w/o Bowers.” GA has had a bye week. GA going to lean on ground game and Beck has been fine and O been in Top 10 and Top 2o even in analytics. O line needs to step up and play better. Loves Gator D coordinator. But #85 in country in explosives allowed and average agst run and pass…..”its tough getting the KY game out of my mind where KY pounded for 300+ yds running.”
Payne on Gator O vs GA D: Florida has given up 19 sacks, 4th most in conference, Mertz pressured on 34% of drop backs. Mertz has short pass game [see Utes discussion] Pearsall is deep threat. GA not faced real pass Os and when they gave up 14 in 1H to Scary, 21 to UAB in game, and 20 to Vandy. Can Gators make it a game? Give credit to Mertz this season. Napier has made it as easy as possible with play action and motion. Gators schedule has helped and every team they have faced has been downgraded since start of season. GA is no exception and he has downgraded them 5.5 points since season started. GA strength of schedule is barely in top 100. Kirby refuses to load the box…maybe he will change this week, it should. Gator O line not good on run. GA allowing 7% greater pass success rate when motion is used and Gators use it at high level. Mertz has to threaten occasionally to keep GA offense. GA is relatively impossible to run on , but their vulnerable areas are outside and btw A&B gap where Gators have most of their success. Gators can be annoying to GA if Kirby does not load the box. So, the way Gators play with slow pace and clock maybe has way to keep game closer, but if they do not stay ahead of down and distance it could get ugly.. Gators abject disaster on late downs and horrific on pass protection on known passing downs. “When you look at this there is kinda a path, but Florida is threading the needle on O and then you cannot turn it over.”
Powers' Non-power 5 is Troy @ Texas State +5.5/52.5: I am seeing +7/53, Powers lost on FAU last week and 3-1 last 4. Keep it simple he takes Troy -4.5 which is long gone. TX State has lost 4 of last 5 ATS. Major step up in class here.
Ohio State @ Wisky +14.5/43.5
Badgers have not beaten OSU in more than 13 years, 2010.
Powers on Buckeye O vs Badger D: Powers does not see it for Buckeye’s O this year [exception Harrison] and Kyle McCord. He does not throw it to open receivers except Harrison. Day took a knee at end of 1H with McCord which he would not have done with QB he had confidence in. I am keeping this short, not a lot of confidence in overall offense. The back-up QB, Devon Brown, who OSU uses in goal line situations is out for few weeks. How does that change them? They will not put up 45 on the Wisky D. Stover at TE needs more targets. Wisky defense is “good, not a ton of dudes…Ga Southern went up and down the field.” Not impressed with Wisky D against Iowa and Illinois. All that said, "Edge to OSU here definitely agst Wisky."
Payne on Badger O vs OSU D: Illinois best D lineman, Newton, was ejected which helped Badgers in the 4th qtr comeback vs Illini. Newton may be #1 D lineman in NFL draft. “Braedyn Locke, oof.” High recruit. Rumors are he’s better in practice than Mordeci. “I don’t see a path for Wisky.” Burke for OSU at cornerback is best in country, should be back. Locke in 2d start cannot lead effective drives. He gives stats. Locke is small and cannot handle pressure. Locke fumbled 3 times in 6 qtrs. The O line cannot get the push needed. “Tough for me to back Wisky that was outscored by Iowa at home, was trailing Illini by multiple scores and had a 95 yd pick 6 to beat Rutgers and were not dominant agst Ga Southern and Buffalo, honestly.”
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