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Going to have to just give a quick synopsis based on mostly recall and some notes of BTB. They were 2-0 last week on Michigam State and ODU.
I have updated all records of BTB, Bear, Clay Travis after last week's results. I will transport records into this thread later. I was 4-4. One thing that definitely would have been a winner was fading Travis after week #1 and both he and Bear all season.
WEEK 12:1-0
POWERS: 1-0
SEASON: 8-4
Powers: 7-2 last 9 weeks
Here we go Week #13
Best Bet:
Nebraska on ML -130 LOSE
Powers Non Power 5 Ball State WIN
Friday Games:
AF @ Boise -6.5/46.5
Boise must win and UNLV wins for Boise to 100% get in MWC championship. Boise State coach, Avalaos, let go last week.
AF wins and UNLV wins then its UNLV-AF champioship game. AF win and UNLV loses then could have a 3 way tie and computers determine stuff.
Teams are trending in opposite direction. AF power ranking is lowest its been all year. Larriar out again and fullback out again. Blew 17 pt lead last week. Boise blew out Utah State last week. Boise is highest its been since October. Powers made the line Boise -6. AF injuries and last 3 losses say lean Boise. Players on Boise are praising the interim head coach after Avalos fired. Green at QB is 6'5" and can run.
Oregon State @ Oregon -13.5/62
127th meeting. Beavers not won at Oregon since 2007 double overtime. Oregon win and go to championship game. Beavers not as good on the road. They are 17-7 ATS last 2 years. Ducks 8-2-1 ATS this year.
We know DJU is Beaver QB (reason enuf for me not to bet Beavers). Brad questions Beavers ability to move ball agst Ducks defense. Last week was an example. Beavers were not able to run agst best 3 defenses they have faced. Beavers are best on defense, not offense. DJU is not a good enought QB to lead this team to a comeback, 57% completion rate. Powers would make GA-3 in National Champioship vs Ducks.
Ducks offense is great...stats cited. YAC is good for receivers. Beavers give up lot of points. Payne does not understand "early week OreSt money." Weather helped Beavers last week. OregonState lost to Wazzu in Pullman and taken to brink by Cal and lost to AZ and performed below expectation in Colorado. Ducks O line creates run yards. Beavers 2dary below average except last week in the weather. Nix throws short and receivers get YAC - OreState rated very poorly in tackling.
UTSA @ Tulane -3.5/52
Tulane wins and goes to conference champioship game. Willie Fritz may be heading out after season? Good coaching match up Traylor vs Fritz. Good QBs Harris vs Pratt. Tulane's only loss is to Ole Miss w/o Pratt (I watched that game and Tulane never seemed out of it as I recall). UTSA 7-0 and 5-1-1 ATS last 7 with Harris. Tulane is "one of best playing under the total." All 7 of the last teams UTSA beat have losing records. Combined record is 27-50. Major step up on the road here. Powers bet UTSA at +4 but sees why others have taken Tulkane -3. Payne says "indecision due to price." Something has looked "off" with Tulane this year. Biggest factor is the ability to protect Harris and Tulane inability to get to passer. Harris can get rid of ball quickly and has good receivers. Likes TE of UTSA but he looks "out" for now. UTSA has a step up in class here. Payne has "somewhat cooled" on UTSA after all said.
Saturday Games:
OhioState @ Michigan -3.5/46.5
Michigan has not won consecutive home games agst OSU since 97/99. Been since 95-97 they won 3 straight agst OSU. Both teams hold teams to single digits and they are #1&2 on scoring defense. All good re both defenses. Powers says Michigan has looked "clunky" w/o Harbaugh on sidelines and he's adjusted power rating .5-1 point.
OSU offense vs Michigan defense. Edge to defense per Powers. Not sold yet on McCord. He explains reasons which include #1: he threw an int that was dropped by ND late in game allows OSU to win and #2: Penn State got defensive TD called back by PSU penalty. These outcomes not reflected in their record. Loves Henderson a lot at RB for OSU and he makes a difference re OSU offense. Marvin Harrison will game plan for him and Stover at TE may well be featured. OL for OSU is some concern for Powers agast Micigan D front. He did downgrade Michigan after last week but it was not due to Michigan D. "This is the best Offense Michigan has faced all season."
Payne on Michigan Offense vs OSU Defense. Injury to McCarthy? And concerns re O line being nicked up. McCarthy only attempted one pass 2nd half agst PSU and McCarthy was hurt last week and did not look same, completion rate of 52% agst MD who's pass D is outside the top 70. Last 6 qtrs he's completed 6 passes. This feels like a different match up from last year...OSU defense is now in year 2 of Jim Noles defense. The D is in top 10 of every defensive metric now and last year was top 25ish. Michigan O last year was better, This year the Mich O line is outside the top 30 in line yds created and Corum is not as "bursty" after knee surgery and Edwards is avg less than 1 yd per rush until first contact. Payne sounds discouraged re Michigan O getting the explosives they got last year. "If you asked me 3 weeks ago I would have died to lay -3 with Michigan...I have not bet OSU and not sure I ever get there. But, my vibe has completly changed over last 3 weeks."
Discussing the total = 9 straight overs in this game. First time total has been in 40s since 2017. Powers leans Under. Payne thinks the "The total from a core perspective is 5 points short. But, you could not pay me to bet this OVER."
FSU @ Florida +6.5/50
Two 2nd string QBs. Tate Rodemaker for FSU and redshirt frehman Max Brown for Gators. Powers thinks line adjustement is correct. He wanted to bet the Under, and did, but not one of his favorite bets of the week. Powers "Obviously downgraded FSU more than Florida due to the back-up QBs." Rodemaker was Norvel's 1st recruit at FSU. Florida defense has allowed 33+ in 5 straight games.
Payne: Rodemaker is 4th year junior with "straight line speed and son of a coach...straight line he is faster than Jordan Travis." Big arm with long release, HS Player of Year in GA. He turned wrong way twice last week to hand the ball off. Vastly improved from 21 and 22 "when defenders were nick-naming him 'Pick Six Tate'." Expect to see RPO game where he is comfortable. O line injury for FSU is significant. Florida is outside top 100 in explosive pass play defense and Rotemaker has stronger arm than Travis. Rotemaker was HS teammate of Jaheim Bell FSU's TE. Florida has O line issues re injury too. FSU biggest weakness is QB runs and is a concern with Brown. Naper loves wide receiver screen game and FSU's best tackling corner, Green, left last week's game and has been seen with arm in a sling and a concern. Payne is FSU fan and says "You could not pay me to lay it here. But, FSU is resiliant group...when fully healthy they are a 6-10 ranked team range. This is a work ethic team...not elite difference makers. Practice been intense and firey."
Non-Power 5 game pick by Powers.
Ball State +6.5 at home vs Miami of Ohio. (the line appears gone to me)
San Jose State @ UNLV -2.5/59.5
UNLV wins and hosts the MWC Champioship. If UNLV loses and AF wins "it goes to computers." If San Jose wins then it goes to "composite computer rankings" btw San Jose, UNLV and AF (if they win). Long story short Powers has upgraded UNLV more than any team in country. Also upgraded SJST more than a touchdown."I am part of the San Jose State money here." List SJST's schedule, stats and experience of Cordiero at QB for SJST.
Wazzu @ Washington -16/68
115th edition of Apple Cup. UDUB won 8 0f last 9 and last year 51-33. Cougars won in Seattle last time in 2021. Last 7 wins for UDUB have been by 10 or fewer points. WAZZU stopped a 6 game skid with last week's win over Colorado. Is Dillon Johnson,RB for Huskies, going to be available? He's significant for their offense and people do not realize it. WAZZU interior defense is vulnerable too. X factor in game is the run game, WAZZU defense is strongest in 2dary. "Our core numbers believed when line was -14 it was a little bit short. We think you are going to get the WAZZU team that started out this season. Washington is in the position here where style points are irrelevant, Win out and you're in. They don't need to win by margin. They have been thru a gauntlant....I have stayed off the game. My core number is -18 or 19....I can tell you some very sharp money on WAZZU." Powers essentially agreed with all this too. "Edge to Cougars...gut tells me WAZZU here."
BAMA @ Auburn +14.5/49
Not going to go into any detail. All edges go to Bama. Bama O line is getting better. Payne: "Do I want to lay more than 14 with Bama in the Iron Bowl considering Hugh Freeze's record agst spread/Saban (?). Not really." His only thought is maybe Auburn hits some explosives. He thinks that you are theading the needle here for Auburn and margin for success is "razor thin." Powers was of the opinion "Lay anything under 14 and take 17. I doubt we ever get to a price where I have a bet on the game."
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