ESPN Handicapper's Picks--Title Games

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TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Traveling so don't have time to pull up their records. will do it later if I have time. Bear and Steve are both on Wisconsin which surprises me (unless there is something wrong with Fields the rest of us don't know about), and Clemson and Georgia which doesn't.

The Bear—
Week 15 (0-0)
ULL at Appalachian St – ULL (+6)
C Michigan vs Miami OH – Miami OH (+7)
LSU vs Georgia – Georgia (+7.5)
Clemson vs Virginia – Clemson (-28.5)
Wisconsin vs Ohio St – Wisconsin (+16.5)

Stanford Steve—
Oregon vs Utah – Oregon (+6.5)
LSU vs Georgia – Georgia (+7.5)
Clemson vs Virginia – Clemson (-28.5)
Wisconsin vs Ohio St – Wisconsin (+16.5)

My Picks—
Oregon vs Utah – Utah (-6.5)
Oregon vs Utah – Under (48)
Memphis vs Cincinnati – Cincinnati +9x
 
Utah is first under I've taken all year, 2dabank, and only taking it because of the weather. Big storm with lots of wind forecast as of now. I like your idea of the UVA/Clem over, but haven't pulled the trigger.
 
Two Utes said:
Rain looks less than first thought in Santa Clara but winds will be strong.
Click to expand...

You're right about the winds, and it looks like the chances of rain are gonna be about 50% at kickoff and going up from there.
 
bones said:
Who does it hurt more? Oregon I imagine?
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I think Oregon but who knows if they will try to modify their passing attack? If Herbert has time Utah could be in trouble. If he's under pressure Utah will win. It's that simple imho. He's shown that he's not good when pressured but if he's back there making sandwiches before he throws the ball his wr's will eventually get open.

I'm worried about this one tbt.
 
Two Utes said:
I think Oregon but who knows if they will try to modify their passing attack? If Herbert has time Utah could be in trouble. If he's under pressure Utah will win. It's that simple imho. He's shown that he's not good when pressured but if he's back there making sandwiches before he throws the ball his wr's will eventually get open.

I'm worried about this one tbt.
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Yeah, I’m starting to lean Oregon with the points. I need to stay away which is what I said I’d do
 
that oregon/utah under is one of my favorite plays of the week along with lsu. Weather is just gravy imo these teams are better defensive teams than offensive. Oregon doesn't have much of a downfield passing game without their tight end. Kinda feeling oregon/utah side is a tossup, and it just reached +7 at bookmaker
 
TahoeLegend said:
Utah is first under I've taken all year, 2dabank, and only taking it because of the weather. Big storm with lots of wind forecast as of now. I like your idea of the UVA/Clem over, but haven't pulled the trigger.
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Uva defense has really regressed imo, reason I played Hokies last week. Lowest total against them the last month was 27 and that was freakin liberty. On other hand the offense been great., last week was particularly impressive to me: I thought for sure once bud foster figured out to take the uva qb runs away tech was gonna take over but credit to the kid for beating them thru the air once that happened. He plays like that I don’t care how big a advantage tigers have up front I think he will make some plays with his feet simply running or scrambling till someone gets open. Honestly can’t envision uva holding tigers under 40 considering the teams who have scored 27+ on them: I’m i credibly confident uva can give us at least 2tds and im actually leaning more like 20, in which case I think it flies over.,
 
Weather forecast is backing off on what time the full force of the storm hits.

The rain and wind is still forecast, but this game starts at 5 pm and the wind is now forecast as 15-17 mph during the game with the heavy rain not starting until 8 pm or later. Don't know if it's the change in the forecast or just that I hate betting unders, but I'm not happy with my under bet. I may buy that one out if it keeps annoying me and it keeps dropping. It just dropped to 45 at a couple of spots.

For the record, the under was 8-3-1 in Utah games and 7-5 in Oregon games.

Also, the money keeps slowly dropping the line on Ohio State/Wisconsin and I see 15.5 here and there. I understand if someone wants to pass on Ohio State, but I don't see going against that machine, especially moving indoors on a fast field. Makes me wonder if people think Fields may be slowed by that knee injury.
 
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Good analysis, 2daBank. I've bet Clemson over a lot this year and I'm 5-3. The three times I lost was when Clemson got a huge halftime lead and just ran the ball the entire second half. All three of my losses were in road games, and the over was 1-4 in Clemson road games, 5-7 in all Clemson games. Not a true reading though because in almost all those games Clemson called off the dogs early and the other team still couldn't do anything.

Virginia overs were 7-5 on the season although overs were only 2-3 away from home
 
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I’ve posted “who the sharps are betting” picks a few times this year. Problem one is we have no idea whether the writer actually knows who the sharps are betting. Problem two is over the years there are always reports of who the sharps are betting and the picks do no better than any other pickers

This guy—sports writer, not handicapper—is not making picks, he’s merely reporting what the Vegas bookmaking shops tell him. So far this year the “sharps” are 11-17.

Utah -6.5
LSU -7
Appalachian State -6
 
Total just keeps slipping on Utah/Oregon. I'm seeing 44 x now and 45 at several places. I'm considering trying to middle and get off that under. I'll watch the intro of the broadcast and if the sideline's announcer is about to get blown away I'll stick. If they don't even mention wind I'll reconsider

Didn't see much wind in pregame, but decided to stick with under
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Total just keeps slipping on Utah/Oregon. I'm seeing 44 x now and 45 at several places. I'm considering trying to middle and get off that under. I'll watch the intro of the broadcast and if the sideline's announcer is about to get blown away I'll stick. If they don't even mention wind I'll reconsider
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See my post in Pac-12 thread. It is whipping bad
 
TahoeLegend said:
Good analysis, 2daBank. I've bet Clemson over a lot this year and I'm 5-3. The three times I lost was when Clemson got a huge halftime lead and just ran the ball the entire second half. All three of my losses were in road games, and the over was 1-4 in Clemson road games, 5-7 in all Clemson games. Not a true reading though because in almost all those games Clemson called off the dogs early and the other team still couldn't do anything.

Virginia overs were 7-5 on the season although only overs were 2-3 away from home
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Without looking. I’m assuming a great deal those uva unders came early? I can’t recall a game since ville that stayed under the total?

Not that it has meant a whole hell of a lot far as results for me this year but I beat the piss out this number getting in at 54.5 and seeing bunch of 57.5 out there now.
 
Bear's Bank picks...

From Even Your Odds site:

Last 4 seasons, Bear absolutely crushed it on his Bear’s Bank picks, here are the records:
  • 2018: 30-24-1 (55.6%)
  • 2017: 29-19-1 (60.4%)
  • 2016: 30-19 (61.2%)
  • 2015: 28-23-1 (54..9%)
Bear’s Bank Week 15 Picks (2019 Season 23-20-1)
Here are the Bear’s picks for today…

bear-2-1024x571.jpg

  • C Michigan vs Miami OH – Miami OH (+6.5)
  • ULL at Appalachian St – ULL (+6.5)
  • LSU vs Georgia – Georgia (+7)
Bear also made the same picks on his podcast earlier this week.
So there you go, Bear’s picks. You won’t find his picks posted online anywhere else faster than us. So be sure to bookmark evenyourodds.com and come back each week for all of your favorite handicapper’s picks!
 
Adding

Clemson/Va pver

Parlay--Clem/Va over and Ohio State/Wisc over (always bet over when you have no idea of what else to bet
 
We went out with a bang with the Clemson over!! I dunno why but I really crushed the acc this year, strange cause it was pretty hectic conf, I guess I thrive with mayhem!! Lol.

Big 10 on other hand I felt like I couldn’t pick my damn nose at times. Really enjoyed talking with ya’ll in this thread all year, thanks for doing it Tahoe!!
 
You hit it out of the park with that Clemson over and I wasn't even thinking of it until you posed about it. I had a max bet on Cincinnati then put half of it back on the Clemson over so ended the season with a nice payday and ensured I'd end in the black for the season.

You really had the rhythm of the ACC down by the home stretch. Is that the conference you bet the most?

I don't bet much on the bowl games but put multi-unit bet down on LSU as soon as they posted it. I don't see any way possible OU can hang with them.

I think Steve and Bear had a few post season picks last year so if I see them I'll post them
 
Yea I def bet the acc more than any the other power 5 down the stretch, no reason for it other than I just felt I had a really good feel for lot of that league. If I had to guess I’d think it was just a case of a conf that didn’t get nearly the attention paid to it and seemed to have a lot of soft lines. Think it had lot to do with matchups/styles were far more important than teams records or what they had done previously.

Miami was really the one acc team that I couldn’t figure out, didn’t bet them much luckily but I played in this contest where you just had to get one win out of every team In conf and whoever had most wins at end of year won the prize and canes killed me, think I missed 2-3 weeks (couple in a row) trying to get them out the way which ended my chances, pretty much If you missed one week you were in trouble, 2 you were finished. Only game of theirs I recall being right on was the Pitt game and think I passed cause didn’t trust the fuckers: lol.

I was hoping VaTech drew a tougher team in the bowl, was really looking forward to them being dogs vs one the highly thought of big10 or sec schools! They got a blue blood just wrong sport!! lol. Think I love them laying -3 or less against uk. Haven’t dug in yet but when I went thru and wrote down my 1st thought line I had Hokies -4 to -6 so unless I see something damning when I cap it that where I will be.,,

I’ll keep my eye out for anything interesting from any those guys as well.
 
From ESPN+

Stanford Steve:
Charlotte +6.5 Loser
SMU -3 (that number long gone)
Washngton -3.5

Bear:
FIU +2.5 (looks like its now +1)
LaTech +6.5
Iowa State +4

Bear lists these ML to consider
BC +220
Charlotte +205
FIU +115
Hawaii +105
Iowa St +155
LaTech +190
Michigan +225
Oregon +120
 
In addition to above - Standford Steve (S2) and Bear's first Bowl Podcast had this:

New Mexico Bowl - S2 leaned SDSt and Bear leaned CMU

Cure - S2 leaned GaSo

The "Condo Steamer" from the former OU Asst Coach = GaSo
 
Colin Cowherd said he made his largest bet ever in the Clemson - Ohio State game in a commercial break tease, I didn't stick around to hear what it was.
 
Frank Costanza said:
I thought someone had ESPN+ access to get to the site / get picks in that fashion. Perhaps not.
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I bought it for 1 month - there is some "Bowl Show" on there with S2 & Bear too, but I can't figure out how to make it work like the internet challenged idiot I am. I'll keep trying. Otherwise I'll update their picks as they get posted on The Chalk section which I got with ESPN+
 
s--k said:
Colin Cowherd said he made his largest bet ever in the Clemson - Ohio State game in a commercial break tease, I didn't stick around to hear what it was.
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Clemson. As bad he been at ncaa that kinda bummed me out cause i love them too. Lol
 
bones said:
I bought it for 1 month - there is some "Bowl Show" on there with S2 & Bear too, but I can't figure out how to make it work like the internet challenged idiot I am. I'll keep trying. Otherwise I'll update their picks as they get posted on The Chalk section which I got with ESPN+
Click to expand...

They been airing that bowl confidence show to promote the game on espn news like non stop last few days: I never watched more than few minutes at a time tho.
 
S2 & Bear

Over 63 MissSt - Louisville - Bear

KSt +2.5 - Bear

Bear is 38-40-1 and 2-6 in Bowls so far
 
I see Colin went 0-5 this week and wound up one game above .500 for the year.

I didn't pay attention the last few weeks, but he must have had a bad slide at the end.

That over Bear took in Miss St/Ville is very popular among public handicappers. K State looks good to me also, because I won more money on them than any team this season, but I'm burnt out on handicapping, so took all remaining SEC teams in several parlays and ignored everything else.
 
New Years Day Bowls

Michigan/Bama:
Bear - OVER 58
S2 - Bama -7 & OVER

Ducks/Badgers
Bear - Oregon +3

Bears/Georgia
Bear - Georgia -5
 
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