ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 7

[s--k]

A lot of times I just put faith in coaching staffs that they are going to put their team in the best position to win the game and that in the week leading up to the game they will forumlate a plan for success. I think the NC State gameplan on O was too conservative especially 1H. They wanted to rely on the D and not make mistakes on O, which is good and all, I just hoped for more out of them in the 1H and the score slowly got away from them and ended up with too much of a hole to try and dig out of at the end. In highsight, Syracuse was the wise play. I thought NC State was actually the better team, Syracuse not properly challenged and ready, I underestimated one very important piece, the QB - so given the situation again, if I didn't want to bet Syracuse I just should not have bet NC State and let it alone.

 

[s--k]

Only thing wrong w the day was the way I saw ncst get cheated out a chance on cuse final 3rd down letting Schrader throw it after crossing Los amd if that was close nothing was close about the lineman in front of him blocking 6 yards down field! So that cost me a shot at ncst, then next play they give up and let tucker run it in from 30 beating his under prop by 3 yards when it had no business losing! Leave it to refs to ruin what was otherwise a fantastic day!!

I just looked the game up on youtube to view this play. His trailing foot was behind the LOS and the block appeared to be 3 yards past the LOS, which I think is allowed. Syracuse made the game winning play when they had to.

Go forward to 8:51

 

[He Hate Me]

I just looked the game up on youtube to view this play. His trailing foot was behind the LOS and the block appeared to be 3 yards past the LOS, which I think is allowed. Syracuse made the game winning play when they had to.

Go forward to 8:51

Yeah, he was not beyond the LOS. The blocking down field was maybe a missed call, but is a call that is often missed when the qb is scrambling.

NCSU was lucky to even be in the game with a QB and/or game plan to only throw the ball within 5 yards of the LOS and the 2 Schrader picks in the red zone in the first half.

 

[He Hate Me]

NCSU may be worth betting on against teams that lack offense with their current QB and offensive game plan, like against VT and BC. Maybe their QB will improve with more practice as the #1 QB and the coaches get more confident with him.

 

[2daBank]

I just looked the game up on youtube to view this play. His trailing foot was behind the LOS and the block appeared to be 3 yards past the LOS, which I think is allowed. Syracuse made the game winning play when they had to.

Go forward to 8:51

I think it incredibly close when ball came out his hand but look at the lineman 6 yards in front of him blocking down field. Total dog shit, they made a play with help from same refs that called it their way most the game.

 

[2daBank]

It ain’t their 1st ref aided win either, I was on cuse vs Purdue and I admit they cheated purdue, aided cuse at end that game also

 

[s--k]

I think it incredibly close when ball came out his hand but look at the lineman 6 yards in front of him blocking down field. Total dog shit, they made a play with help from same refs that called it their way most the game.

You are right, #81 is blocking probably 6 yards like you say. I saw the lineman who was 3 yards. I don't know what they would do there, #81 looked like he was expecting his QB to run then he threw...assuming the same 3y rule applies to receivers unless ball thrown behind the line, so that would be one they missed. I don't know how often they call that, it isn't like #81 is blocking to open up another receiver in the area. I'll give you that is a questionable no call.

 

[2daBank]

You are right, #81 is blocking probably 6 yards like you say. I saw the lineman who was 3 yards. I don't know what they would do there, #81 looked like he was expecting his QB to run then he threw...assuming the same 3y rule applies to receivers unless ball thrown behind the line, so that would be one they missed. I don't know how often they call that, it isn't like #81 is blocking to open up another receiver in the area. I'll give you that is a questionable no call.

I think he was blocking assuming the qb was taking off. And they are usually pretty bad bout calling those, like they often call them when it iffy if the guy past 3, never see one so blatant right in front of the play not get called. I still dunno his foot was behind Los when he let go, I’ll admit it was sooo close I don’t think it shoulda been overturned from whichever way they called it but that lineman has to get called. I wouldn’t be so pissed if ncst didn’t give up after that and hand tucker that 30 yard run that beat my under by 3 stinking rush yards!

 

[TahoeLegend]

The most killer play I saw all day was the Iowa State WR--their best WR and a captain of the team--wide open, no one even close, running free at about the 15 with about 30 seconds left. Total blown coverage by Texas, no WR more open all weekend, the Iowa State QB threw a perfect pass, gave him plenty of room to run under it. If he catches it he can trot onto the EZ, game over

Instead he clutched up somehow, it hit him right on the numbers, a perfect pass, he made an awkward sort of half jump half stumble, dropped it, fell down, just a total failure.

The guy will never forget that as long as he lives and neither will any of his teammates

 

[TahoeLegend]

I think it incredibly close when ball came out his hand but look at the lineman 6 yards in front of him blocking down field. Total dog shit, they made a play with help from same refs that called it their way most the game.

I saw some really, really bad calls yesterday. The worst was in the Utah/USC game.

About 18 seconds left, USC at about their own 40-45, and everyone in the stadium and watching on TV knew Williams was going to complete a couple to wide-open receivers just like he had all night, and like he was already doing on that drive. They could not come close to sacking the guy and things only got worse if they flushed him out of the pocket.

He throws a pass to about the Utah 30, interference is called--and it was clear interference--and the ball is intercepted and the Utah guy runs about 40 yards or so and runs off most of the remaining time. Maybe 5 seconds left if they count the time burned on the return. But the ref says, oh, our fault, one of our guys called time out. He didn't say inadvertent whistle, blew the play dead, which might have made sense, but said he called time out.

So USC got the time put back on the clock and got the interference call. But at least they took some time off for the play up to the interception point so USC only had about 12 seconds and ran out of time.

And earlier the same crew got the downs wrong and screwed Utah by taking a down away and giving USC the ball close to mid-field.

 

[2daBank]

I saw some really, really bad calls yesterday. The worst was in the Utah/USC game.

About 18 seconds left, USC at about their own 40-45, and everyone in the stadium and watching on TV knew Williams was going to complete a couple to wide-open receivers just like he had all night, and like he was already doing on that drive. They could not come close to sacking the guy and things only got worse if they flushed him out of the pocket.

He throws a pass to about the Utah 30, interference is called--and it was clear interference--and the ball is intercepted and the Utah guy runs about 40 yards or so and runs off most of the remaining time. Maybe 5 seconds left if they count the time burned on the return. But the ref says, oh, our fault, one of our guys called time out. Hw didn't say blew the play dead, which might have made sense, but said he called time out.

So USC got the time put back on the clock and got the interference call. But at least they took some time off for the play up to the interception point so USC only had about 12 seconds and ran out of time.

And earlier the same crew got the downs wrong and screwed Utah by taking a down away and giving USC the ball close to mid-field.

Incompetence of officials really hurts the game. I feel like it would be such a easy fix, you have a guy or 2 upstairs watching on tv, they see one these awful calls or no calls and they just call down and tell them to freaking fix it, no running over to replay for same asshole who got it wrong to waste 5 min looking at it. No hesitations, just beep his earpiece and say “hey dipshit, that was a foul call it, or that wasn’t a fumble put ball back, etc etc”, how hard would that be? I actually say it happen last week on Monday night, kc. They called it a td but guy was half yard short, someone called down and they spotted ball wjere it should be right away, I was amazed. Like why the fuck can’t they do that all the time? Even on blatant bad or missed penalty calls? Wouldn’t hurt the tempo of game at all, would just keep all of us from watching blatant bs. I have same gripe w Mlb umps, it a damn shame we can see everything that a ball or strike yet we gotta put up with umps who call shit 3-5 inches off the plate strikes and shit on the corner balls, such a easy fix!

 

[2daBank]

Not asking them to put every little thing under a microscope but it insane when we can all clearly see the call was awful yet nothing gets done about it. Call down and say “bro, dgonna look really dumb or crooked if you don’t fix that!

 

[bones]

Clay Travis' OutKick College Football Gambling Picks For Week 7, 2022

Who does Clay Travis like in the monster Alabama-Tennessee matchup? That pick and more! We're going 11-0, baby.

www.outkick.com

Clay Travis:
"We went 3-7, falling to 32-33 on the season."

FWIW: I am on the OKST/TCU Over 68.5 and may well bet Ole Miss

Week 7:

Penn State +7 at Michigan and the under 52.5​

Auburn at Ole Miss -14.5​

Alabama at Tennessee +7.5​

Oklahoma State at TCU, the over 68.5​

Wisconsin -7.5 at Michigan State​

LSU at Florida, the under 51.5​

Mississippi State -6.5 at Kentucky​

Clemson -3.5 at Florida State​

USC at Utah -3 and the under 64.5​

Travis Week 7. Horrible 3-8. He is getting to be one of the worst.

Penn State and Under - Lost and Lost

Ole Miss - Lost. He had them at -14.5 they won by 14

Tennessee - Won

OKSt/TCU Over - Won

Wisky -7.5 - Lost

LSU/FLA Under 51.5 Lost

Mississippi St -6.5 Lost

Clemson -3.5 Won

Utah -3 and Under 64.5 Lost and Lost

 

[TahoeLegend]

Travis Week 7. Horrible 3-8. He is getting to be one of the worst.

Penn State and Under - Lost and Lost

Ole Miss - Lost. He had them at -14.5 they won by 14

Tennessee - Won

OKSt/TCU Over - Won

Wisky -7.5 - Lost

LSU/FLA Under 51.5 Lost

Mississippi St -6.5 Lost

Clemson -3.5 Won

Utah -3 and Under 64.5 Lost and Lost

I remember him from Lock It In on Fox Sports. Then they changed it to a different name, but kept him on. I got the idea they had told him, "hey, we need you to act real zany. Act like a morning drive disc jockey and try to be funny."

The show was a disaster and I guess Fox finally gave up because I haven't noticed it on the schedule lately

 

[TahoeLegend]

Posting results for the pickers here rather that start new thread

Good week for SVP. Bad for Bear and Adam Kramer, although both had good starts so are still well in the black for the season. Colin (4-1) had his best week of the season, David (7-0) undefeated for the season on his Super Dog picks. It's damn hard to go 7-0 and he's 15-6 over two seasons. that's as good as it gets so I'll be watching his picks from now on. Pam Maldonado went 4-1 and is now in the black for the season. Joe (3-0) led the D-League pickers.

A couple of the ML Dog pickers are having good years, but I don't know how to calculate how far in the black they are

ESPN Pickers:
Stanford Steve— (2-3) (12-13) 2020-21 Total (71-56)
(Best Bet 3-4)
Penn St +7 lose
Utah -3x lose
TCU -4 lose Best Bet
Syracuse -4x win
Rice +4 win

Scott Van Pelt—(5-3) (31-23) 2020-21 Total (99-77)
Okla -9 win
Michigan State +7x win
Bama -7 lose
Ga southern +12 win
Ark State +4x win
Florida St +3x lose
Duke +7 win
MTSU +8 lose

The Bear—(1-4) (20-13) 2020-21 Total (61-65)
Bank Picks—(1-2) 11-10)
Bama -7 lose
TCU -4 lose
S Florida +12 lose
Florida State +3x lose Best Bet
Hawaii +6 win

Gameday Super Dog Picks, Season Record
Lee— Kansas +9x lose (3-4) 2021 Season 10-3-1
Desmond—Tennessee +9 win (4-3) 2021 Season 9-5
Kirk—— Illinois +6x win (5-2) 2021 Season 9-4-1
Reece——S Florida lose (4-3) 2021 Season 9-5
David——Illinois +6x win (7-0) 2021 Season 8-6


Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(3-6) (40-27)
Utah -3x lose
Fla State +3x lose
Penn St/Mich u 52 lose
TCU -3x lose
E Carolina -4x lose
W Virginia +3x win
Duke +7 win
Neb/Purdue 0 56 win
Bama/Tenn u 66 lose

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— (4-1) (17-13) 2020-21 Total (66-77)
Ravens -5x lose
Ny Jets +7x win
Falcons +4x win
Steelers +9x win
Seahawks +2x win

Phil Steele—(2-3) (21-18) 2020-21 Total (78-87)
Hawaii +6 win
Army -28x (Colgate) lose
E Carolina -5 lose
Iowa State +17 win
W. Mich/Ohio o 58x lose

Pamela Maldonado—(4-1) (15-14) 2021 (17-23)
LSU +2x win
Okla St +4 win
Okla St/TCU o 68x win
Penn State +7 lose
UConn +9x win

My Picks—(5-0 (29-19) 2020-21 Total (108-65)
(Parlays—(5-1)
Four early bets so far:
Tennessee +8 win
Clemson -3x win
Clemson ML (-168) win
Syracuse ML (-164) win
Utah ML (-152) win
Parlay Navy/ Oklahoma/Kansas over win
Parlay (teaser) Navy/ Minn/Illinois under win
Parlay Okla/Kansas over/ Okla State/TCU over win
Parlay Okla State/TCU over team to be named TBD
Parlay Texas 2nd half -7/Okla 2nd half -4 lose both sides (the first--and definitely LAST-- second half bets I will ever make as long as I live)


ESPN D-League Pickers:
Tyler Fulghum—(0-3) (12-8-1) 2021 (17-15)
Minn/Illinois u 39x lose
Cal -15 lose
Utah State -11 lose

Greg McElroy—(2-1) (13-8) 2021 (22-17)
Utah -3x lose
Syracuse -3x win
Arkansas -1x win

Joe Fortenbaugh—(3-0) (11-10) 2021 (25-33)
Ark/BYU o 66 win
Toledo -7x win
North Texas -6x win

Doug Kezirian—(3-1) (8-16) 2021 (22-28)
Auburn +15 win
Iowa State +16 win
Utah State -11 lose
Okla State/TCU o 68 win Best Bet of Weekend

MLDog Pickers:
Bill Bender—(0-3) (7-14) 2021 (9-30)
USC lose
NC State lose
Nebraska lose

Mike DeCourcy—(2-1) (8-13) 2021 (15-24)
Tennessee win
Illinois win
USC lose


Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-3) (4-17) 2021 (17-23)
Kansas lose
Oklahoma St lose
USC lose

Bill Trocci—(0-3) (4-17) 2021 (16-23)
Navy lose
Kansas lose
Indiana lose

 

[WikiWiki]

I've kept track of wins and losses, but not whether I would have won if I laid the points rather than bet the game ML (yesterday, two of the three I bet ML covered the spread) .

I'm 23-1 in the three years I've been betting ML on low point spreads. Kentucky v. S Carolina last week is my only loss

It seems strange to me a book will charge at least -125, much of the time -130 or more, to buy from 3x to 3. But you can buy from -3x down to pick for -145 to -165. It varies for reasons I can't figure out. Syracuse and Utah were both home teams -3x, but ML was -152 for Utah (even lower than that at times, but I missed it), -164 for Syracuse).

What it comes down to is you are paying an extra 45 to 50 cents to remove 3x, 3, 2x, 2, 1x and 1. I know I'm going to win a high enough percentage of games to make more money doing it that way. At least as long as I can keep hitting the percentages I've hit over the last 30 years or so. But, as you say, I've VERY selective. I only do it when I'm willing to bet the same team on the spread. That's why I sometimes bet a game both ways the way I did Clemson this week and Texas last week

:sarcasm: