ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 7

Posted ML Dog pickers:
Bill Bender—(0-0) (7-11) 2021 (9-30)
USC
NC State
Nebraska

Mike DeCourcy—(0-0) (6-12) 2021 (15-24)
Tennessee
Illinois
USC

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-0) (4-14) 2021 (17-23)
Kansas
Oklahoma St
USC

Bill Trocci—(0-0) (4-14) 2021 (16-23)
Navy
Kansas
Indiana
 
FWIW here are my current wagers (had good weeks #5 & #6). Been wagering thru out the week, so some lines have changed both for and against me.

I make my bets on what I read on CTG, podcasts I listen to, if interested in a game I'll go to their Twitter feed to get updates and what I like from what I've seen all season

Iowa State +17 game been well discussed throughout the threads. Iowa St has good history agst Texas and Cyclone defense should keep it closer than 2TDs/fg

Arkansas -1 Jefferson is playing. I like Razorbacks coach and the SEC team in a supposedly close game. Plus, I like these 2 guys:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581050193444757504

OkSt/TCU OVER 68.5 Brad Powers' breakdown on Bet the Board was deciding factor. I am liking this less and less. I can see backing out, but for now I have it

SoMiss -4 Based on Powers' Bet the Board cast and reading other comments on this site. I think BrassKnux has a breakdown. I agreed with him, or somebody

KentState +8 and ML Been looking to bet them all season. Doing it today. +8. I also took them ML

Leans: Kansas +10. Michigan, Bama, LSU and Illini
 
bones said:
FWIW here are my current wagers (had good weeks #5 & #6). Been wagering thru out the week, so some lines have changed both for and against me.

I make my bets on what I read on CTG, podcasts I listen to, if interested in a game I'll go to their Twitter feed to get updates and what I like from what I've seen all season

Iowa State +17 game been well discussed throughout the threads. Iowa St has good history agst Texas and Cyclone defense should keep it closer than 2TDs/fg

Arkansas -1 Jefferson is playing. I like Razorbacks coach and the SEC team in a supposedly close game. Plus, I like these 2 guys:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581050193444757504

OkSt/TCU OVER 68.5 Brad Powers' breakdown on Bet the Board was deciding factor. I am liking this less and less. I can see backing out, but for now I have it

SoMiss -4 Based on Powers' Bet the Board cast and reading other comments on this site. I think BrassKnux has a breakdown. I agreed with him, or somebody

KentState +8 and ML Been looking to bet them all season. Doing it today. +8. I also took them ML

Leans: Kansas +10. Michigan, Bama, LSU and Illini
Click to expand...

Love the arky play, just think they need this and should straight up bully the Mormons. I’d say arky by dd but I’m afraid they will be up then Hall will start throwing all over them in 2nd half and make it a nail biter. Was hoping to play a few props here but they came kinda high with sanders rush number, no hall pass yards for some reason (cause they know I’ll make them pay! lol), thinking maybe Jefferson over rush total.
 
bones said:
FWIW here are my current wagers (had good weeks #5 & #6). Been wagering thru out the week, so some lines have changed both for and against me.

I make my bets on what I read on CTG, podcasts I listen to, if interested in a game I'll go to their Twitter feed to get updates and what I like from what I've seen all season

Iowa State +17 game been well discussed throughout the threads. Iowa St has good history agst Texas and Cyclone defense should keep it closer than 2TDs/fg

Arkansas -1 Jefferson is playing. I like Razorbacks coach and the SEC team in a supposedly close game. Plus, I like these 2 guys:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581050193444757504

OkSt/TCU OVER 68.5 Brad Powers' breakdown on Bet the Board was deciding factor. I am liking this less and less. I can see backing out, but for now I have it

SoMiss -4 Based on Powers' Bet the Board cast and reading other comments on this site. I think BrassKnux has a breakdown. I agreed with him, or somebody

KentState +8 and ML Been looking to bet them all season. Doing it today. +8. I also took them ML

Leans: Kansas +10. Michigan, Bama, LSU and Illini
Click to expand...
I'm leaning the same way you are on Okla St/TCU over and on LSU. I'll wait till I sort out the morning games before I bet those late ones, but LSU definitely caught my eye. Added Okla/Kansas over as second team in Navy parlay
 
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bones said:
FWIW here are my current wagers (had good weeks #5 & #6). Been wagering thru out the week, so some lines have changed both for and against me.

I make my bets on what I read on CTG, podcasts I listen to, if interested in a game I'll go to their Twitter feed to get updates and what I like from what I've seen all season

Iowa State +17 game been well discussed throughout the threads. Iowa St has good history agst Texas and Cyclone defense should keep it closer than 2TDs/fg

Arkansas -1 Jefferson is playing. I like Razorbacks coach and the SEC team in a supposedly close game. Plus, I like these 2 guys:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1581050193444757504

OkSt/TCU OVER 68.5 Brad Powers' breakdown on Bet the Board was deciding factor. I am liking this less and less. I can see backing out, but for now I have it

SoMiss -4 Based on Powers' Bet the Board cast and reading other comments on this site. I think BrassKnux has a breakdown. I agreed with him, or somebody

KentState +8 and ML Been looking to bet them all season. Doing it today. +8. I also took them ML

Leans: Kansas +10. Michigan, Bama, LSU and Illini
Click to expand...
Added Penn State +4.5 1H

I stayed on the OVer in TCU game
 
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bones said:
Wish I had been busy. No matter all I've learned - my late wagers are always my worst. :beat:
Click to expand...

It’s the time sets for me. I tend to do terrible in the early starts, props better but sides in the early set usually suck for me.
 
This kid starting for ncst a 5 year senior who started at some fcs school and had good numbers. Leary ain’t impressed me much. I think this kid will be just fine. I’m playing ncst, you can throw on cuse between the 20s, big windows in their zones!
 
1sy time I’ll be against cuse all year! I knew a time would come there be value against them with a team who is more talented than they are. Wish Wolfpack offense was better coached but maybe they will be more aggressive on early downs to give the new qb some easy throws!
 
2daBank said:
1sy time I’ll be against cuse all year! I knew a time would come there be value against them with a team who is more talented than they are. Wish Wolfpack offense was better coached but maybe they will be more aggressive on early downs to give the new qb some easy throws!
Click to expand...
This game is a tough one. No matter which side you take you know you are probably in for a long slog in a game that will probably go down to the wire. You are sweating out your bet no matter which side you are on. I'm sticking with The Cuse, but I expect to be barely hanging on the whole game
 
2daBank said:
This kid starting for ncst a 5 year senior who started at some fcs school and had good numbers. Leary ain’t impressed me much. I think this kid will be just fine. I’m playing ncst, you can throw on cuse between the 20s, big windows in their zones!
Click to expand...
Did you watch him last week? They only allowed him to attempt 1 pass. They even had their WR in the wildcat to attempt a pass after Leary was hurt.
 
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TahoeLegend said:
This game is a tough one. No matter which side you take you know you are probably in for a long slog in a game that will probably go down to the wire. You are sweating out your bet no matter which side you trynging on the whole game
Click to expand...

I don’t think I’ll be sweating! I think ncst kinda dominates. I saw how much cuse struggled to get tucker going when facing strong d’s. Prob be more fgs than tds so the points have value imo. You know I was super high on cuse so this pains me but I think the better team catching points. Ncst d numbers far more impressive than Cuse due sos. When cuse saw a real passing offense purdue picked them apart. Ncst not Purdue when it comes to passing but think the coach will have the 5th year kid who started for years and competed a very good percent at his fcs school school. I think this be tougher for cuse than facing Leary since they won’t be prepared for what ncst gomna do in passing game. I think that the edge here. Kid gonna play better than Leary! We see if Shrader can keep them in it with his legs and arms but don’t think Tucker gonna give him much help!! Think that leads to a turnover or 2. If ncst can turn red zone trips to tds I think they win by 10
 
TahoeLegend said:
Maybe I should have said I expect Texas to roll over
Click to expand...
ISU are one Dekkers pick in the EZ from being in command of this game

By far his best game to this point, between him and this freshman kicker that makes hookers jealous I don't expect the win but positive game from him
 
Added Okla State/TCU over as second team in parlay with Okla/Kansas over and as first team in a new two-teamer. I'll figure out the second one later.

I've got to have something on that game and I can't come up with any other bet. One minute I lean Okla State, the next TCU. I'll just take over and enjoy the game
 
2daBank said:
Love the arky play, just think they need this and should straight up bully the Mormons. I’d say arky by dd but I’m afraid they will be up then Hall will start throwing all over them in 2nd half and make it a nail biter. Was hoping to play a few props here but they came kinda high with sanders rush number, no hall pass yards for some reason (cause they know I’ll make them pay! lol), thinking maybe Jefferson over rush total.
Click to expand...
Hall is 269.5 on fd
 
2daBank said:
Love the arky play, just think they need this and should straight up bully the Mormons. I’d say arky by dd but I’m afraid they will be up then Hall will start throwing all over them in 2nd half and make it a nail biter. Was hoping to play a few props here but they came kinda high with sanders rush number, no hall pass yards for some reason (cause they know I’ll make them pay! lol), thinking maybe Jefferson over rush total.
Click to expand...

survive&advance said:
Hall is 269.5 on fd
Click to expand...
Wish I could see a side in that game. I've looked at it and looked at it and just can't see anything

Already got my work out in, watched a lot of good football already, ahead for the day so far, got lucky when I got shut out on Penn State, I just rolled a special joint, half Blue Dream, half Diddy Kong, going to light it up and get ready for some great football this afternoon. Doubt I bet anything else today unless I hear some big news that changes my mind on some game

Good luck to all you pickers
 
TahoeLegend said:
Wish I could see a side in that game. I've looked at it and looked at it and just can't see anything

Already got my work out in, watched a lot of good football already, ahead for the day so far, got lucky when I got shut out on Penn State, I just rolled a special joint, half Blue Dream, half Diddy Kong, going to light it up and get ready for some great football this afternoon. Doubt I bet anything else today unless I hear some big news that changes my mind on some game

Good luck to all you pickers
Click to expand...
yeah i didnt see an edge either way in that one. biggest advantage we have over the books is we don't have to bet everything :)
 
When will they finish Aub gm, need ashford to throw for 44 yards on this drive! Can’t fucking believe he has 9 passes all game, threw 38 on lsu w success, attempted 38 last week. Fuckinb 9 today cause Ol piss couldn’t be bothered stopping Run
 
TahoeLegend said:
I added Utah ML (-152).
Click to expand...

Have you ever kept track of how many times betting the small fav ML won you money when laying the pts would've lost you money? Or have you ever tracked how often you have lost the favorite ML where it wouldn't have mattered if you laid the pts or paid the ML juice? I know how selective you are so I'm sure you do well over time with it. I would just hate to lay all that juice, like one loss would be quite a set back.

I was fortunate that I got the set up I wanted, Utah trailed at HT so getting them -4 2H meant they could lose the game by 1 or 2 and the 2H wager would win. Made for a very exciting and fun finish.
 
s--k said:
Have you ever kept track of how many times betting the small fav ML won you money when laying the pts would've lost you money? Or have you ever tracked how often you have lost the favorite ML where it wouldn't have mattered if you laid the pts or paid the ML juice? I know how selective you are so I'm sure you do well over time with it. I would just hate to lay all that juice, like one loss would be quite a set back.

I was fortunate that I got the set up I wanted, Utah trailed at HT so getting them -4 2H meant they could lose the game by 1 or 2 and the 2H wager would win. Made for a very exciting and fun finish.
Click to expand...

I never keep track but when I say screw the few points and lay then I get fucked a lot!! lol
 
This the kinda day why we love college fb! So many amazing games!

Although I gotta say those ncst boys got cheated. On cuse last drive the fucking qb was past the LOS when he made that throw, all while there was a kid clocking 6 yards down the field. The refs were the bad side of college fb in that game, they were clearly in Dino Babers pocket!!
 
I can’t believe tcu came back! Wow, glad I stayed away cause I def leaned okie light. I guess okie lite covered
 
I was so busy watching two outstanding games wind down, then go into overtime, I didn't even notice the clock so got shut out on LSU and didn't even remember to add a second team to a parlay I had open. Doesn't bother me. I can't recall if I've ever watch two greater games at the same time than Bama/Tennessee and Ok State/TCU. One great play after another all game long. Both games so close they could--and did-change on every play.
 
s--k said:
Have you ever kept track of how many times betting the small fav ML won you money when laying the pts would've lost you money? Or have you ever tracked how often you have lost the favorite ML where it wouldn't have mattered if you laid the pts or paid the ML juice? I know how selective you are so I'm sure you do well over time with it. I would just hate to lay all that juice, like one loss would be quite a set back.

I was fortunate that I got the set up I wanted, Utah trailed at HT so getting them -4 2H meant they could lose the game by 1 or 2 and the 2H wager would win. Made for a very exciting and fun finish.
Click to expand...
I've kept track of wins and losses, but not whether I would have won if I laid the points rather than bet the game ML (yesterday, two of the three I bet ML covered the spread) .

I'm 23-1 in the three years I've been betting ML on low point spreads. Kentucky v. S Carolina last week is my only loss

It seems strange to me a book will charge at least -125, much of the time -130 or more, to buy from 3x to 3. But you can buy from -3x down to pick for -145 to -165. It varies for reasons I can't figure out. Syracuse and Utah were both home teams -3x, but ML was -152 for Utah (even lower than that at times, but I missed it), -164 for Syracuse).

What it comes down to is you are paying an extra 45 to 50 cents to remove 3x, 3, 2x, 2, 1x and 1. I know I'm going to win a high enough percentage of games to make more money doing it that way. At least as long as I can keep hitting the percentages I've hit over the last 30 years or so. But, as you say, I've VERY selective. I only do it when I'm willing to bet the same team on the spread. That's why I sometimes bet a game both ways the way I did Clemson this week and Texas last week
 
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2daBank said:
That usc/Utah game had to be crazy! When I fell out usc was pretty much dominating!
Click to expand...
If there has ever been a Saturday when we had the pleasure of watching as many fantastic games as we did yesterday I don't remember it.

Tennessee/Bama, Okla State/TCU, and Utah/USC were as entertaining and as riveting as sports can be. Just amazing. And the first two were going on at the same time! It was hard to turn away for even one play from either one because every play was vital

And then Utah/USC turns out to be just as great. Utah never did stop Williams or even slow him down. He just ran out of time
 
TahoeLegend said:
If there has ever been a Saturday when we had the pleasure of watching as many fantastic games as we did yesterday I don't remember it.

Tennessee/Bama, Okla State/TCU, and Utah/USC were as entertaining and as riveting as sports can be. Just amazing. And the first two were going on at the same time! It was hard to turn away for even one play from either one because every play was vital

And then Utah/USC turns out to be just as great. Utah never did stop Williams or even slow him down. He just ran out of time
Click to expand...

Clemson/fsu, lsu/gators, uk/messy st were all good too! Maybe I liked them more cause I won all those.

Only thing wrong w the day was the way I saw ncst get cheated out a chance on cuse final 3rd down letting Schrader throw it after crossing Los amd if that was close nothing was close about the lineman in front of him blocking 6 yards down field! So that cost me a shot at ncst, then next play they give up and let tucker run it in from 30 beating his under prop by 3 yards when it had no business losing! Leave it to refs to ruin what was otherwise a fantastic day!!
 
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