ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 7

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Stanford Steve was the only picker who had a good week and it got him back to .500 for the year. Adam Kramer had his first losing week of the year at 4-5, but still above 60% for the year.
Only David (6-0) and Desmond won their Super Dog picks. Tyler Fulghum leads the Daily Wager pickers.
I was 5-1. Texas was the biggest bet I've made since I laid the points with the LSU national title team against Oklahoma in the post season. There probably won't be another bet that easy all year. I'm still shocked that Texas line wasn't at least 17x.

ESPN Pickers:
Stanford Steve— (2-3) (12-13) 2020-21 Total (71-56)
(Best Bet 3-4)
Penn St +7 lose
Utah -3x lose
TCU -4 lose Best Bet
Syracuse -4x win
Rice +4 win

Scott Van Pelt—(5-3) (31-23) 2020-21 Total (99-77)
Okla -9 win
Michigan State +7x win
Bama -7 lose
Ga southern +12 win
Ark State +4x win
Florida St +3x lose
Duke +7 win
MTSU +8 lose

The Bear—(1-4) (20-13) 2020-21 Total (61-65)
Bank Picks—(1-2) 11-10)
Bama -7 lose
TCU -4 lose
S Florida +12 lose
Florida State +3x lose Best Bet
Hawaii +6 win

Gameday Super Dog Picks, Season Record
Lee— Kansas +9x lose (3-4) 2021 Season 10-3-1
Desmond—Tennessee +9 win (4-3) 2021 Season 9-5
Kirk—— Illinois +6x win (5-2) 2021 Season 9-4-1
Reece——S Florida lose (4-3) 2021 Season 9-5
David——Illinois +6x win (7-0) 2021 Season 8-6


Other Pickers:
Adam Kramer—(3-6) (40-27)
Utah -3x lose
Fla State +3x lose
Penn St/Mich u 52 lose
TCU -3x lose
E Carolina -4x lose
W Virginia +3x win
Duke +7 win
Neb/Purdue 0 56 win
Bama/Tenn u 66 lose

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— (4-1) (17-13) 2020-21 Total (66-77)
Ravens -5x lose
Ny Jets +7x win
Falcons +4x win
Steelers +9x win
Seahawks +2x win

Phil Steele—(0-0) (19-15) 2020-21 Total (78-87)
Hawaii +6 win
Army -28x (Colgate) lose
E Carolina -5 lose
Iowa State +17 win
W. Mich/Ohio o 58x lose

Pamela Maldonado—(0-0) (15-14) 2021 (17-23)
LSU +2x win
Okla St +4 win
Okla St/TCU o 68x win
Penn State +7 lose
UConn +9x win

My Picks—(5-0 (29-19) 2020-21 Total (108-65)
(Parlays—(5-1)
Four early bets so far:
Tennessee +8 win
Clemson -3x win
Clemson ML (-168) win
Syracuse ML (-164) win
Utah ML (-152) win
Parlay Navy/ Oklahoma/Kansas over win
Parlay (teaser) Navy/ Minn/Illinois under win
Parlay Okla/Kansas over/ Okla State/TCU over win
Parlay Okla State/TCU over team to be named TBD
Parlay Texas 2nd half -7/Okla 2nd half -4 lose both sides (the first--and definitely LAST-- second half bets I will ever make as long as I live)

ESPN D-League Pickers:
Tyler Fulghum—(0-3) (12-8-1) 2021 (17-15)
Minn/Illinois u 39x lose
Cal -15 lose
Utah State -11 lose

Greg McElroy—(2-1) (13-8) 2021 (22-17)
Utah -3x lose
Syracuse -3x win
Arkansas -1x win

Joe Fortenbaugh—(3-0) (11-10) 2021 (25-33)
Ark/BYU o 66 win
Toledo -7x win
North Texas -6x win

Doug Kezirian—(3-1) (8-16) 2021 (22-28)
Auburn +15 win
Iowa State +16 win
Utah State -11 lose
Okla State/TCU o 68 win Best Bet of Weekend

MLDog Pickers:
Bill Bender—(0-3) (7-14) 2021 (9-30)
USC lose
NC State lose
Nebraska lose

Mike DeCourcy—(2-1) (8-13) 2021 (15-24)
Tennessee win
Illinois win
USC lose

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-3) (4-17) 2021 (17-23)
Kansas lose
Oklahoma St lose
USC lose

Bill Trocci—(0-3) (4-17) 2021 (16-23)
Navy lose
Kansas lose
Indiana lose
 
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Did Steve give Utah as a dog?

I don't hear Cowherd very often. I like his show, but just don't listen much. Today I had it on for a few minutes and I'm pretty sure he said he is going to pick Penn State because everybody wants Harbaugh to lose. Not sure what kind of reasoning that is.
 
You really think USC suddenly becomes the Utes GOY as opposed to the Holy War now because of Riley? I don't at all, but curious as to your reasoning if so. I guess I understand it from a random P12 South that won't exist in a couple years angle but no way I can buy that BYU won't always be their premier game every year.
 
s--k said:
Did Steve give Utah as a dog?

I don't hear Cowherd very often. I like his show, but just don't listen much. Today I had it on for a few minutes and I'm pretty sure he said he is going to pick Penn State because everybody wants Harbaugh to lose. Not sure what kind of reasoning that is.
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Misprint. He had Utah -3x.

Steve picked Penn State and Bear said if he picks the game it will be Penn State
 
KJ said:
You really think USC suddenly becomes the Utes GOY as opposed to the Holy War now because of Riley? I don't at all, but curious as to your reasoning if so. I guess I understand it from a random P12 South that won't exist in a couple years angle but no way I can buy that BYU won't always be their premier game every year.
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I guess BYU will be the big game for the Utes if they play them, but they don't play them this year.

Instead of Utah BYU plays Utah Tech, a school I've never even heard of
 
On Daily Wager they said the reason the line plunged on the Clemson/FSU game is because the Sharp Money is on FSU. The reasoning made no sense at all

Doug went on about how the Sharp money sees that Clemson really had a hard time with Wake Forest--ignoring the fact Clemson beat them on the road--and believes Fla State did a much better job of stopping the Wake offense than Clemson, even though Fla State lost by two scores to them at home.

Then he said the Sharp money knows Fla State should have beaten NC State and did a much better job of shutting them down, even though they lost to them, than Clemson did, even though Clemson beat NC State by two scores.

It sounded like gibberish to me. Fla State may turn out to be the right side, but those reasons make no sense at all.

Doug is always claiming he's betting a team--just as he did when he made Nevada his bet of the year last week--because some Sharp he knows personally is betting that way (claimed the Sharp is so important, and bet so much money, the line went from Nevada -3 to Nevada -3x when his friend bet it). And yet despite all this information from Sharp money, Doug had the worst record last year and is 5-15 this year, the worst by far, worse than every one of the ML dog pickers
 
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KJ said:
Wait there's no holy war this year?

Utah Tech used to be Dixie State

This is beyond scandalous
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Won't play them this year, won't play them next year, then the series will resume for at least a few years

So the USC game is the game the Utes have been pointing for all off-season. That may be the reason they looked a little flat against UCLA
 
It would be good to get @Two Utes perspective on the BYU-Utah rivalry.

I have had the feeling that since Utah moved to the PAC 12 the importance of the rivalry has diminished within the Utah football program just because, now Utah has bigger goals and bigger fish to fry. So in that context, yes, the USC game can be the biggest game of the year even on a schedule that has BYU on it. I'm not trying to say it no longer matters and it is no longer a big game - instead it doesn't impact the overarching hopes and goals of the team as it once did.
 
USC is an interesting study in that their offense was so good out of the gate when there were plenty of reasons it might not have been (new players, chemistry, Caleb Williams was still relatively inexperienced) and the defense was so bad when it should've been better (the belief that defenses are normally ahead of offenses early in the season). But you look the last several weeks and the USC O has slowed down quite a bit while the D has become quite good now.

The USC OL has been bad all year, Caleb's ability to escape pressure and be accurate on the run has made it not matter as much. It all might be catching up to them as the season wears on.

Utah has two outstanding CBs. It will be a big deal if Addison can't play because it will give Utah more flexibility in their coverage and how they gameplan the SC O. Just because UCLA had enormous success running on Utah doesn't mean USC will. Utah could make run stop and pressure their priority this week and leave their talented DBs to matchup vs the WRs of SC.

It's really a must win for Utah given how the season has gone. And to that point, I'm sure USC wants to win this game very badly too, because Utah was last year what they want to be this year, PAC 12 Champs. So USC has known the road to their goals runs through Utah. Now of course there will be the conference title game and all that to be determined. It's a massive game for both teams obviously, definitely feel that Utah is the more desperate bunch and with that home crowd do have an edge especially given that USC's O isn't as hot as it was a month ago. UCLA? Super hot right now. Utah should fair better this week and it's good to look for a bounce back on a proud program coming home in their biggest game of the year. I think Utah wins this week.
 
s--k said:
It would be good to get @Two Utes perspective on the BYU-Utah rivalry.

I have had the feeling that since Utah moved to the PAC 12 the importance of the rivalry has diminished within the Utah football program just because, now Utah has bigger goals and bigger fish to fry. So in that context, yes, the USC game can be the biggest game of the year even on a schedule that has BYU on it. I'm not trying to say it no longer matters and it is no longer a big game - instead it doesn't impact the overarching hopes and goals of the team as it once did.
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Spot on IMHO. It's a much bigger game to BYU than it is Utah at this point.
 
Posted picks from Stanford Steve and Bear. Steve is going back to Rice, the team that helped put him in a deep hole to start the season:
Steve
Penn St +7
Utah +3x
TCU -4
Syracuse -4x
Rice +4

Bear
Bama -7
TCU -4
S Florida +12
 
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s--k said:
It would be good to get @Two Utes perspective on the BYU-Utah rivalry.

I have had the feeling that since Utah moved to the PAC 12 the importance of the rivalry has diminished within the Utah football program just because, now Utah has bigger goals and bigger fish to fry. So in that context, yes, the USC game can be the biggest game of the year even on a schedule that has BYU on it. I'm not trying to say it no longer matters and it is no longer a big game - instead it doesn't impact the overarching hopes and goals of the team as it once did.
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Guessing they'll both be in the big 12 sooner rather than later anyway.
 
Steve had Rice vs USC (when USC scored 3 defensive TDs), but Rice has covered every game since week 1
 
I been cuse biggest fan and no Leary obviously screws this game up but I don’t think cuse will be able to move ball. Def looking for tucker under rush prop
 
Your acc expert says Clemson gonna roll fsu. Noles couldn’t move ball for 2-3 qrtr against wake, pissed away ncst gm. They not gonna be able to run on clemson, Travis will be under pressure. On the other side DJ has improved a ton, not just his passing but he slimmed down and is being a huge asset in run gm. Noles have had terrible time w running qbs, DJ will hurt them on ground (prop hint!). Tigers are back to the top the acc and going to playoff!
 
Me and you been messy st biggest fans @TahoeLegend , assuming Levis plays I think they get upset by uk! Their glaring d weakness is you can run on them, Rodriquez looks better every week, long as they have Levis to keep chains moving I think they control the game w their offense! Uk pass d good enough to keep Rogers out of ruthem, few 3 and outs and next thing you know uk has ball for 40 minutes! Thoughts?
 
2daBank said:
Me and you been messy st biggest fans @TahoeLegend , assuming Levis plays I think they get upset by uk! Their glaring d weakness is you can run on them, Rodriquez looks better every week, long as they have Levis to keep chains moving I think they control the game w their offense! Uk pass d good enough to keep Rogers out of ruthem, few 3 and outs and next thing you know uk has ball for 40 minutes! Thoughts?
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This is the classic situation when Leach teams lose one and a classic situation where Kentucky covers and probably wins SU. And I love to play SEC home dogs.

But I'm passing on this one. Sounds like Levis will play this week, but I bet Kentucky a lot and when I do I bet on their defense and their toughness. That game they played against S Carolina last week made Kentucky a no-play for me till I see they still play defense and are still tougher than the teams they play. They had the 7-0 lead last week and Kentucky just does not lose in that situation against the likes of S Carolina, but the Gamecocks outplayed them and out-toughed them the rest of the way and just looked like a better, more motivated team.

If Miss State gets ahead in this one I don't know if Kentucky can move the ball. Kentucky probably has--at least on paper--a slightly better D, but on the field so far the two Ds are about equal

In a normal week I'd be on Kentucky this week, but I'm passing. I have to come up with 10 games for a contest I'm in so I always have to pick 4 or 5 games I'm not in love with just to have 10, but I don't like either side well enough to even include it in my 10

What about you? What are you thinking>
 
TahoeLegend said:
This is the classic situation when Leach teams lose one and a classic situation where Kentucky covers and probably wins SU. And I love to play SEC home dogs.

But I'm passing on this one. Sounds like Levis will play this week, but I bet Kentucky a lot and when I do I bet on their defense and their toughness. That game they played against S Carolina last week made Kentucky a no-play for me till I see they still play defense and are still tougher than the teams they play. They had the 7-0 lead last week and Kentucky just does not lose in that situation against the likes of S Carolina, but the Gamecocks outplayed them and out-toughed them the rest of the way and just looked like a better, more motivated team.

If Miss State gets ahead in this one I don't know if Kentucky can move the ball. Kentucky probably has--at least on paper--a slightly better D, but on the field so far the two Ds are about equal

In a normal week I'd be on Kentucky this week, but I'm passing. I have to come up with 10 games for a contest I'm in so I always have to pick 4 or 5 games I'm not in love with just to have 10, but I don't like either side well enough to even include it in my 10

What about you? What are you thinking>
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Leaning uk +6 and ml. Huge on Rodriquez over rush yards
 
s--k said:
Steve had Rice vs USC (when USC scored 3 defensive TDs), but Rice has covered every game since week 1
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Rice has a pretty good season going. And I never mind going against a Taggert team, especially with Mike Stoops coaching the D.

If I were betting this one I'd be with Steve on Rice, but this isn't the type game I ever risk real money on
 
I think stoops will have good plan to slow down air raid. Well offense controlling clock be big part but also think he have good plan to keep them out the end zone.
 
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Brad Powers only this week. Podcast got their record to 3-3 last week.

No selection this week but Powers liked So. Miss at -6.5 or less

Games broken down and Brad's view as I recall:

Penn St @ Michigan - no selection; his power ranking is at -7 but he leans PSU

Minnesota @ Illini - fairly strong on Minnesota but he got number at -3.5 and now -6.5 (he still like it, but obviously value gone)

OKSt @ TCU - sounded as if he liked TCU more and fairly strong but chose the OVER I think even at the now 69. Thinks OKSt is not as good as they appear when looking at the numbers

Bama @ Tenny - seemed like he preferred Tenny at +7 but less so if Bryce is back in. Concerns re Bama pass game, penalties, turnover margin at -5. Thinks Bama should concentrate on the run. He selected the Under 66 as the bet

LSU @ Florida - cannot remember all he said. If I am correct he was critical of both O & D lines of LSU and pressure Ds can put on LSU QB

Clemson @ FSU - do not remember a thing he said

USC @ Utah - don't remember much. But again he said in looking at the numbers much concern re Utah and Oline. He liked the +3.5 with USC

Other games I do not recall all except

he like Iowa State at the + number - I do too and have bet them at +17

His other selection was So Miss -4

I do remember another game he briefly discussed Ark@ BYU - he was fairly negative on BYU. I had already bet Ark -1 and need to go back and listen b/c may bet more
 
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2daBank said:
I been cuse biggest fan and no Leary obviously screws this game up but I don’t think cuse will be able to move ball. Def looking for tucker under rush prop
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2daBank said:
Careful w cuse. I don’t think they score
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I hear you.

I've been a big fan of the NC St D over the years and have won with them a lot. And the D looks good again this year. They've kept them in every game even when the offense can't function. But the Cuse D is every bit as good as NC St this year. They are almost identical in the major D stats, but Cuse is slightly better in all of them. My guess is both Ds show up big time this week.

So I have no doubt this one goes down to the wire, but I'm willing to risk money on the home team, better QB, better RB and I think the team that is a little more motivated.

Another game that looks to me like the exact same type of game is Minnesota at Illinois. The two best Ds in the country. I like betting both those teams and was going top take Illinois because they are at home till they lost their QB. I got burned last week taking Kentucky at home when they lost their QB. Now I'm on the fence on this one. Do you have a feel for this one?

How about any of your other pickers? Anyone betting Minn/Illinois?
 
TahoeLegend said:
I hear you.

I've been a big fan of the NC St D over the years and have won with them a lot. And the D looks good again this year. They've kept them in every game even when the offense can't function. But the Cuse D is every bit as good as NC St this year. They are almost identical in the major D stats, but Cuse is slightly better in all of them. My guess is both Ds show up big time this week.

So I have no doubt this one goes down to the wire, but I'm willing to risk money on the home team, better QB, better RB and I think the team that is a little more motivated.

Another game that looks to me like the exact same type of game is Minnesota at Illinois. The two best Ds in the country. I like betting both those teams and was going top take Illinois because they are at home till they lost their QB. I got burned last week taking Kentucky at home when they lost their QB. Now I'm on the fence on this one. Do you have a feel for this one?

How about any of your other pickers? Anyone betting Minn/Illinois?
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I can’t bet Illinios games so don’t follow close. I think minny roles them tho
 
bones said:
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Brad Powers only this week. Podcast go their record to 3-3 last week.

No selection this week but Powers liked So. Miss at -6.5 or less

Games broken down and Brad's view as I recall:

Penn St @ Michigan - no selection; his power ranking is at -7 but he leans PSU

Minnesota @ Illini - fairly strong on Minnesota but he got number at -3.5 and now -6.5 (he still like it, but obviously value gone)

OKSt @ TCU - sounded as if he liked TCU more and fairly strong but chose the OVER I think even at the now 69. Thinks OKSt is not as good as they appear when looking at the numbers

Bama @ Tenny - seemed like he preferred Tenny at +7 but less so if Bryce is back in. Concerns re Bama pass game, penalties, turnover margin at -5. Thinks Bama should concentrate on the run. He selected the Under 66 as the bet

LSU @ Florida - cannot remember all he said. If I am correct he was critical of both O & D lines of LSU and pressure Ds can put on LSU QB

Clemson @ FSU - do not remember a thing he said

USC @ Utah - don't remember much. But again he said in looking at the numbers much concern re Utah and Oline. He liked the +3.5 with USC

Other games I do not recall all except

he like Iowa State at the + number - I do too and have bet them at +17

His other selection was So Miss -4

I do remember another game he briefly discussed Ark@ BYU - he was fairly negative on BYU. I had already bet Ark -1 and need to go back and listen b/c may bet more
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I feel the same on Bama/Tenn. I like Tennessee at +8 unless Young plays, then I'll have to rethink my bet

I'd love to bet the TCU/Ok State game, but can't see a clear bet on either side. Until last week I'd have taken Ok State +4 in an instant, but they couldn't get off the field against a Tech QB who had never played before and their DBs looked lost. And I think a couple of DB starters are banged up this week. Over may be the way to go on that one
 
2daBank said:
I can’t bet Illinios games so don’t follow close. I think minny roles them tho
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I'm looking more at the under in that one. Beliema loves to burn the clock at home games and leave the game in the hands of his D. And it's one of the best in the country. Even in his first year, and against one of Minnesota's best teams, that one ended 14-6 last year.

But I hate unders, so I doubt I pull the trigger
 
Massive let down spot for Miss St this week imo

Beat A&M and Arky at home, two division games where plenty of people were picking against them, then Bama on deck, not to mention another division matchup.

This game says sandwich all over it, I took the 6 assuming it would go down if Levis plays then saw it at 7 on Monday, love Kentucky here. If Leach has them ready for this one, all the power to the dogs. But it's CATurday.
 
KJ said:
Massive let down spot for Miss St this week imo

Beat A&M and Arky at home, two division games where plenty of people were picking against them, then Bama on deck, not to mention another division matchup.

This game says sandwich all over it, I took the 6 assuming it would go down if Levis plays then saw it at 7 on Monday, love Kentucky here. If Leach has them ready for this one, all the power to the dogs. But it's CATurday.
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This def the kinda game messy st loses when I get all high on them. This uk all the way! Messy st run d not real string long as Levis can keep chains moving to Rodriquez will go for a buck 50 and control this game I think.
 
Posted Doug Kezirian's picks (just because I laugh at Doug losing all the time because he bets the same way as Smart Money doesn't mean I don't think he's good on Daily Wager. He's there to add information on line moves and information on the gambling industry and he does a good job at it).
Auburn +15
Iowa State +16
Utah State -11
 
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TahoeLegend said:
I feel the same on Bama/Tenn. I like Tennessee at +8 unless Young plays, then I'll have to rethink my bet

I'd love to bet the TCU/Ok State game, but can't see a clear bet on either side. Until last week I'd have taken Ok State +4 in an instant, but they couldn't get off the field against a Tech QB who had never played before and their DBs looked lost. And I think a couple of DB starters are banged up this week. Over may be the way to go on that one
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This should be a hell of a game, my initial lean was tcu cause if ya havnt noticed I seem to like these guys practically every week! I think they easily have the better secondary but a concern I have is they been just straight gashing everyone on the ground going for best in nation 7.1 ypc, I don’t think they gonna enjoy that kinda success against okie lite, they can’t stop the pass for shit but they go out of their way to take run games away, wjat will Duggan look like without the benefit of that run game? And okie lite is pretty good getting off the field on 3rd downs, could be 1st time all year tcu forced to be in some 3rd and longer known passing situations. Duggan has been great but coming into the year I wasn’t very high on him (thought morris should be the guy), not taking anything from him but he hasn’t had to face hardly any adversity to this point. It’s crazy cause I used to bang on Sanders but he has gotten better every year and I think I trust him more than Duggan here. Gun to head I slightly lean to okie lite, just cause I feel like this all new to tcu and cowboys been in plenty these games.
 
lb49ers said:
SVP Winners

Oklahoma -9
Mich St +7x
Mid Tenn St +8
Alabama -7
Ga Southern +12
Arkansas St +4x
Florida St +3x
Duke +7
Utah -3x
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Probably the 1st time ever SVP gets to be on bama! I heard some podcast w a sports book guy say everyone is betting the vols, that a scary thought! Just when ya think bama dead they usually roll somebody!
 
TahoeLegend said:
I hear you.

I've been a big fan of the NC St D over the years and have won with them a lot. And the D looks good again this year. They've kept them in every game even when the offense can't function. But the Cuse D is every bit as good as NC St this year. They are almost identical in the major D stats, but Cuse is slightly better in all of them. My guess is both Ds show up big time this week.

So I have no doubt this one goes down to the wire, but I'm willing to risk money on the home team, better QB, better RB and I think the team that is a little more motivated.

Another game that looks to me like the exact same type of game is Minnesota at Illinois. The two best Ds in the country. I like betting both those teams and was going top take Illinois because they are at home till they lost their QB. I got burned last week taking Kentucky at home when they lost their QB. Now I'm on the fence on this one. Do you have a feel for this one?

How about any of your other pickers? Anyone betting Minn/Illinois?
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I’ve looked thru this Minny / Illini game all week, trying to find a way to play against Minny and their fugazi numbers they built up vs putrid teams/offenses; illini with the points, under, minny tt under, but I can’t get the fear of Arthur Sitkowski out of my head and how badly he could mess up any or all of those plays…he is battery acid bad
 
Knamelis said:
I’ve looked thru this Minny / Illini game all week, trying to find a way to play against Minny and their fugazi numbers they built up vs putrid teams/offenses; illini with the points, under, minny tt under, but I can’t get the fear of Arthur Sitkowski out of my head and how badly he could mess up any or all of those plays…he is battery acid bad
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I learned last week how dangerous it is to bet on a back up QB when I took Kentucky. Not only did their offense disappear with the backup, their defense became ordinary. It affects everything when you lose your leader.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I learned last week how dangerous it is to bet on a back up QB when I took Kentucky. Not only did their offense disappear with the backup, their defense became ordinary. It affects everything when you lose your leader.
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Totally agree, between a likely limited playbook, potential turnovers and not moving the ball leading to great field position, but also all the 3 and outs keeping your defense on the field
 
Knamelis said:
Totally agree, between a likely limited playbook, potential turnovers and not moving the ball leading to great field position, but also all the 3 and outs keeping your defense on the field
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I see three games where we won't know till Saturday just before kickoff if the QB will play, and whether they play makes so much difference it's hard to bet the games without knowing their status--Young at Bama, Gabriel at Oklahoma, DeVito at Illinois. All have practiced this week. It appears the first two will play, still a question about DeVito
 
Knamelis said:
I’ve looked thru this Minny / Illini game all week, trying to find a way to play against Minny and their fugazi numbers they built up vs putrid teams/offenses; illini with the points, under, minny tt under, but I can’t get the fear of Arthur Sitkowski out of my head and how badly he could mess up any or all of those plays…he is battery acid bad
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Just dunno how ya can trust Illinios to score? It been tough enough w devito, without him o don’t see it. Illini team total under maybe?
 
Knamelis said:
Totally agree, between a likely limited playbook, potential turnovers and not moving the ball leading to great field position, but also all the 3 and outs keeping your defense on the field
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Sometimes the backup turns out better or equal but never really know before hand. In ncst case I gotta worry if dude can’t beat out Leary how good can he be? That said how hard is it to play at Leary level? There are def plays to be made against cuse in the secondary imo. Kid gets the benefit of having the full week of practice, much tougher getting thrown in a game never having gotten practice reps. I was on cuse earlier than anyone (as in week 1 vs ville), the new oc has done wonders for Schrader as a passer but they have really regressed it the run game. The only times Tucker has gotten off been against crap teams, he been non factor against every decent d they have faced, I don’t think he will have any room vs ncst. I dunno, the points real tempting to me even w the backup.
 
2daBank said:
Just dunno how ya can trust Illinios to score? It been tough enough w devito, without him o don’t see it. Illini team total under maybe?
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The play against Minnesota is based on my belief that they’ve looked good defensively against inferior opponents, particularly on offense with New Mex St, W. iLL and even Michigan St who is way down this year…Minnesota’s offense was non existent vs Purdue albeit without Ibrahim, I’d rather back DeVito and the Illinois run defense than trust Morgan even with Ibrahim.
 
TahoeLegend said:
On Daily Wager they said the reason the line plunged on the Clemson/FSU game is because the Sharp Money is on FSU. The reasoning made no sense at all

Doug went on about how the Sharp money sees that Clemson really had a hard time with Wake Forest--ignoring the fact Clemson beat them on the road--and believes Fla State did a much better job of stopping the Wake offense than Clemson, even though Fla State lost by two scores to them at home.

Then he said the Sharp money knows Fla State should have beaten NC State and did a much better job of shutting them down, even though they lost to them, than Clemson did, even though Clemson beat NC State by two scores.

It sounded like gibberish to me. Fla State may turn out to be the right side, but those reasons make no sense at all.

Doug is always claiming he's betting a team--just as he did when he made Nevada his bet of the year last week--because some Sharp he knows personally is betting that way (claimed the Sharp is so important, and bet so much money, the line went from Nevada -3 to Nevada -3x when his friend bet it). And yet despite all this information from Sharp money, Doug had the worst record last year and is 5-15 this year, the worst by far, worse than every one of the ML dog pickers
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Yeah, that is some weird analysis. What concerns me are the things Brad Powers mentioned: FSU's yards-per-play margin and points nargin are better than Clemson despite FSU playing a slightly tougher schedule (though any serious analysis would throw out the Furman game). FSU is +2.2 yards per play (7.0 on offense and 4.8 on defense, which is outstanding).

The teams played three common opponents in the last three weeks. Will add some more thoughts later.
 
2daBank said:
Sometimes the backup turns out better or equal but never really know before hand. In ncst case I gotta worry if dude can’t beat out Leary how good can he be? That said how hard is it to play at Leary level? There are def plays to be made against cuse in the secondary imo. Kid gets the benefit of having the full week of practice, much tougher getting thrown in a game never having gotten practice reps. I was on cuse earlier than anyone (as in week 1 vs ville), the new oc has done wonders for Schrader as a passer but they have really regressed it the run game. The only times Tucker has gotten off been against crap teams, he been non factor against every decent d they have faced, I don’t think he will have any room vs ncst. I dunno, the points real tempting to me even w the backup.
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I can get behind NC St, trying to convince myself to play them, totally agree the week of practice helps, plus the backup is a 25 year old with 4 years playing experience..even threw for 300 last year vs ECU..Sitkowski however? No thanks …he couldn’t even play quarterback for Rutgers..they had a RB take snaps at quarterback the last 2 years!
 
Knamelis said:
I can get behind NC St, trying to convince myself to play them, totally agree the week of practice helps, plus the backup is a 25 year old with 4 years playing experience..even threw for 300 last year vs ECU..Sitkowski however? No thanks …he couldn’t even play quarterback for Rutgers..they had a RB take snaps at quarterback the last 2 years!
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Yea, no clue how Illini scores?
 
Knamelis said:
I can get behind NC St, trying to convince myself to play them, totally agree the week of practice helps, plus the backup is a 25 year old with 4 years playing experience..even threw for 300 last year vs ECU..Sitkowski however? No thanks …he couldn’t even play quarterback for Rutgers..they had a RB take snaps at quarterback the last 2 years!
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Never know if it means much but those random shootings in Raleigh yesterday could be something. Big enough city I doubt it but never know.
 
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