ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 4

T

TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
The Bear—Week 4 (0-0) Season (5-7) Bank Picks (3-0, 6-3) 2020 Season (25-21)
Nebraska +5
North Carolina -12
Mississippi State +2.5
Syracuse +6.5
UTSA +3
Bank Picks

Stanford Steve— Week 4 (0-0) Season (10-7) Best Bet (2-0) 2020 Season (32-27)
Nebraska +5
UCLA -4.5
Kent State +14.5
Syracuse +6.5
Minnesota -30.5
UTSA +3
Air Force -4.5

Bill Trocci— Week 4 (0-0) Season (3-6) 2020 Season (42-31)(picking all ML dogs this year)
Syracuse +6x
N Dame +5x
N C State 10

Phil Steele-- Week 4 (0-0) Season (13-11) 2020 Season (27-40)
Troy –24
Rice -21
BYU -23
UMass +36
Tulsa -14
UAB +3x

Scott Van Pelt— Week 4 (0-0) Season (12-9) 2020 Season (42-39)
Oklahoma -17
S Carolina +5
Kent St +14x
Nebraska +5
Baylor +7
Fla St +1x
Miami Oh +8x

Pamela Maldonado— Week 4 (0-0) Season (7-1)
Florida St +2x
Baylor +7

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 3 (0-0) Season (4-6) 2020 Season (35-37)

Greg McElroy— Week 4 (0-0) Season (7-2)
Marshall +7
Michigan State -5
Toledo -3 (says this is the one he is most confident about)

My Picks— Week 4 (0-0) Season (9-7) 2020 Season (48-31)
Miss St +3 (love Leach at home)
Oklahoma -17
Alabama -10x 1st Q
SMU +9x
Utah St +9x
Texas -9
Michigan St -3x (gained two points by waiting, I guess the whole world is on Nebraska)
Bama/S Miss over 13x first quarter
Oklahoma ML
Tennessee +10x first half
 
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We were talking about that Miss St game in the SEC thread. Don't know if I can pick a side. I am very curious on the Miss St D here, I think some might overlook how good they are and how well they could play here. Pretty good Miss St CBs (Forbes and Emerson) even though the LSU CBs are the household names.
 
I really like the Miss St D at home. Leach always had a much better D at Texas Tech and WSU than he got credit for and he has the best athletes he's ever had on his D at Miss St.

I really like N Carolina St getting 10 at home v. Clemson, but then I think of how Clemson defense hasn't given up a TD and it makes me think twice. I'll wait to see what 2daBank has to say. He's on top of the ACC every week

Like Michigan St too, although that 5 is more than I want to give. I'll wait on that one and see if it goes down. I've won twice on the Spartans this year and love the way they play. Tough guys on D and some excellent skill players on the offense too. Best RB I've seen this year. Shows what the portal can do for a team

I'll recheck that number Greg gave on Toledo. He may have given a higher number
 
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TahoeLegend said:
I really like the Miss St D at home. Leach always had a much better D at Texas Tech and WSU than he got credit for and he has the best athletes he's ever had on his D at Miss St.

I really like N Carolina St getting 10 at home v. Clemson, but then I think of how Clemson defense hasn't given up a TD and it makes me think twice. I'll wait to see what 2daBank has to say. He's on top of the ACC every week

Like Michigan St too, although that 5 is more than I want to give. I'll wait on that one and see if it goes down. I've won twice on the Spartans this year and love the way they play. Tough guys on D and some excellent skill players on the offense too. Best RB I've seen this year. Shows what the portal can do for a team

I'll recheck that number Greg gave on Toledo. He may have given a higher number
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I've seen some 3.5s out there earlier in the week but no 3s. I saw the same segment and pretty sure he gave himself 3
 
Added picks for Bear and Stanford Steve

Like Steve's UTSA and A Force picks, but I wouldn't touch that UCLA/Stanford game. To me, they are the two most unpredictable programs in the country.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added picks for Bear and Stanford Steve

Like Steve's UTSA and A Force picks, but I wouldn't touch that UCLA/Stanford game. To me, they are the two most unpredictable programs in the country.
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I think UTSA/Memphis is the most intriguing game as a gambler this weekend. Only on over there but it won't be covered like it should be
 
Added Pamela Maldonado's picks.
Florida St +2x
Baylor +7

She also liked Miss State, Kansas State, Arkansas, Kent State, and N Carolina, but said the lines all moved against her more than a point so she passed
 
For Pam, being a dog gal, the N Carolina I assume was State or UNC?

I like Baylor myself. I might feel more comfortable with the points vs ML, TBD. I think Baylor has come a long long way with this team compared to last year and while I think they are ready to win this kind of game, they are not battle tested (just TxSt, TxSo and Kansas). ISU is battle tested, even UNI is respectable team and obviously facing Iowa builds up the toughness and challenge trying to execute against good teams where as Baylor has had everything come easy to them.
 
One thing for those on Baylor and I won't be on ISU at this number

But I believe the last 2 games against Baylor they egged on ISU to get some chippy unsportsmanlikes to get the boot

Think Breece Hall got punted in the 2h last season, this will not be some overlook, I know that. Only team in conference the entire fan base thinks is dirty, I for one think the whole athletic dept is dirty. Fuck Waco. Been once for hoops and they wouldn't let the Clones cut down the nets after winning the B12, brought in troopers and turned out the lights in 2000. They've sucked at life. They are probably the only team in the B12 ISU hates. Not OU, not Texas. Baylor.

That said they're usually tough games.
 
s--k said:
We were talking about that Miss St game in the SEC thread. Don't know if I can pick a side. I am very curious on the Miss St D here, I think some might overlook how good they are and how well they could play here. Pretty good Miss St CBs (Forbes and Emerson) even though the LSU CBs are the household names.
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Lsu corners have the names but not sure their play warrants the attention?
 
I heard Steve and bear talking bout cuse ion the podcast and still don’t really understand why they like them? Doubt I mess with it but think the number totally justified if not a little light.
 
I like Kent st. Wasn’t sure if I was going them or over but that total freaking 69! I mean with good reason I think but I can’t play over that number!
 
2daBank said:
I heard Steve and bear talking bout cuse ion the podcast and still don’t really understand why they like them?
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They think the Syracuse defense is good this year and will be enough to cover. I only saw them against Rutgers and I agree the defense looked much better than it has been. But Babers has always been a high speed offense guy running the Art Briles offense and the offense looked just as bad as it has the last two years. He had a great offense in the MAC and his first couple of years at Syracuse. I don't understand why he suddenly lost his touch with the offense
 
2daBank said:
I like Kent st. Wasn’t sure if I was going them or over but that total freaking 69! I mean with good reason I think but I can’t play over that number!
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I'm going to try and see if I can make any sense of a Kent upset win in the ML thread later.
 
Looks a little like Babers finally realized he doesn't have a good QB any more and is going to run it and not let his QBs put games up for grabs anymore. He realized it too late and looks like recruiting failure or personnel bust since Dungey left
 
s--k said:
Looks a little like Babers finally realized he doesn't have a good QB any more and is going to run it and not let his QBs put games up for grabs anymore. He realized it too late and looks like recruiting failure or personnel bust since Dungey left
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Pretty sure he's dead man walking, no blueprints for the future of that program
 
s--k said:
I'm going to try and see if I can make any sense of a Kent upset win in the ML thread later.
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I think when you deep dive you will find things to like bout Kent. I havnt really dug into yet either but pretty sure there be things to like. Kent st offense getting huge class relief after having to face AM and iowa already this year! Doubt any offense has faced a tougher set of games than those 2!! Think Kent st offense is actually pretty good, just covered up by the fact they had to play those 2 defenses who both prob top 10ish in country! Now they get a bad Terps defense who most likely feeling themselves a bit and looking ahead for the matchup with Iowa the following week! They better be focused on Kent st this week or they fuck around and get clipped! As of now Kent st like 4th|5th on my list of ml dogs for contest, they might creep into top before games kick on Saturday!
 
KJ said:
Pretty sure he's dead man walking, no blueprints for the future of that program
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Babers benefitted from a program built by Dave Clawson and left the cupboard bare at Bowling Green when he went to Cuse and like you said, there isn't much waiting in the wings for Cuse either.
 
TahoeLegend said:
What do you think of N C State getting double digits v Clemson?
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No opinion, we talked about quite a bit in VC thread on this game if ya wanna check out. After watching ncst offense at messy im just not sure they can score much on Clemson? I generally have liked their play calling the last year but thought it was pretty awful in that game, neither their 2 stud rbs got nearly enough touches for my taste. If they put this game in Leary hands I don’t think it will end well!

I just have no idea what going on with tigers offense or if they can fix? It obviously justifiable the number being lower than normal as Clemson offense clearly nothing like it been in previous years but so odd seeing them “only” laying 10 in a acc game, I can’t bring myself to fade them at this number. I could be dead wrong bout this but I’m still expecting them to figure it out and roll someone.

I’ll say this much, if ncst can come out and put up a couple scores I think pressure on tigers would build like crazy. Almost think ncst ml makes more sense than taking the points, either Clemson covers easily or it a dog fight and they lose. I lean to thinking Clemson covers but the latter wouldn’t shock me, like I said not much of a strong opinion I know, game a total stay away for me. MW did make a pretty good case for the under.
 
s--k said:
We talkin' real money playa!
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Lol, Well yea of course, I almost always bet the ones I play in contest! Unless it a week I’m not feeling them, lol. I like my list of possibles this week, I’m sure I’ll be sprinkling at least the 3 that make my list.
 
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s--k said:
We were talking about that Miss St game in the SEC thread. Don't know if I can pick a side. I am very curious on the Miss St D here, I think some might overlook how good they are and how well they could play here. Pretty good Miss St CBs (Forbes and Emerson) even though the LSU CBs are the household names.
Click to expand...

I really wish I had the stones to play that under. I dunno that I do tho!
 
2daBank said:
I lean to thinking Clemson covers but the latter wouldn’t shock me, like I said not much of a strong opinion I know, game a total stay away for me
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Same thing I decided. I really liked the idea of getting double digits, but I try to never go against the best defense and Clemson D still hasn't given up a TD this year.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same thing I decided. I really liked the idea of getting double digits, but I try to never go against the best defense and Clemson D still hasn't given up a TD this year.
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It a really rare thing where dd just doesn’t feel like a ton considering what Clemson typically lays against the entire acc! Think I heard this was the smallest number they have laid (to a acc opponent not named ND who was only a acc team for a year!) since Kelly Bryant was qb!

Yea as bad tigers offense been the defense looks to be really good, I think messy st d might be better than ppl think but they not Clemson and ncst got almost nothing vs them! Leary did throw for 300 yards which shocking considering I watched most the game and woulda never guessed he had that, talk about empty yards! If ncst has him throwing it 49 times again it be all bad for them Me thinks.

As I said I think MW (who our resident Clemson expert!) makes a solid case for under, he thinks it gonna be super low scoring! That certainly wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest. I can’t imagine ncst scores more than 2tds barring defensive or special teams getting in the endzone.

Maybe they were sandbagging in starksville although seems odd doing that vs a sec team? Just didn’t understand the play calling in that game, not only did it lack the creativity ive thought they shown quite a bit of last season, but knight and person only had bout 10 touches each (8 carries a piece), I understand they wernt having lot of success but gotta stick with them especially in a game that was fairly close most the way. Just seemed like they were far too willing to get away from their best 2 players touching the ball which doesn’t make sense to me? The usf game they both had closer to 20 touches each and if they gonna have any chance here I think that has to be the case. As long Clemson offense continues to struggle ncst has to keep getting the ball in those 2 hands any way they can, good things happen when they touching it, not so good of things happen when Leary throwing it 50x!
 
I just saw SVP “winners” few minutes ago., he has 7 this week, not sure I can remember them all, let’s see:

Scary +5
Nebraska +5
Fsu +1.5
Kent st +14.5
Miami Ohio +8 (or whatever it is)
Sooners -17

Guess I can’t remember the last 1, Lol. Doesn’t surprise me he on noles since he the ultimate contrarian, I just dunno how ya back that squad? Line does kinda stink.

Can’t believe he laying 17 with sooners (seemed like he was even confused to have a big fav! lol), but I guess everyone down on sooners and wvu perception probably higher than Nebraska was coming into last week!

He a Maryland alum, tend to respect his opinion on Terps games (he had Illini last week also I believe) and as we been discussing lot of us seem to like Kent st to stay close at least! My only concern with Kent st is the 69 total makes the points a little less appealing, that said I do think Kent st offense will have tons of success in this game (obviously I guess they would have to!).
 
The uk line is def another curious one, gotta think they will be far and away the popular side. Don’t think Uk has played all that well as of yet but don’t see myself backing scary.
 
Minnesota was the game Steve gave out during SVP winners segment, is that what his best bet is? I forget.
 
I just noticed you are on messy st, I think if I play a side in that game I’d be right there with you. As I’ve mentioned I would really like to play that under but it scares me, pretty low number for a game that could easily see 90+ passing attempts! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I just saw SVP “winners” few minutes ago., he has 7 this week, not sure I can remember them all, let’s see:

Nebraska +5
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I see everyone loves Nebraska this week. It reminds me two weeks ago when every public handicapper on the planet was going with Iowa State against Iowa. I went with Iowa, but almost talked myself out of it when I saw how many respectable cappers were taking Iowa St

I'm looking at that game, but if I pull the trigger it will be on Mich State.

I agree with you about laying big numbers with Oklahoma. It's not impossible they can cover, but this team is a shadow of past OU offenses because Rattler is nowhere close to the level of Baker, Kyler, and Hurts. He doesn't look like he's progressed a bit from last year and his MO is still the same--every so often throw a beautiful long pass to someone and everyone says, wow what an arm. But for every one of those he throws three over the head of the receiver and one into triple coverage.

OU has quit trying crossing patters because he just doesn't have the touch to throw them and has completely dropped the hurry up offense because he just can't run it
 
TahoeLegend said:
I see everyone loves Nebraska this week. It reminds me two weeks ago when every public handicapper on the planet was going with Iowa State against Iowa. I went with Iowa, but almost talked myself out of it when I saw how many respectable cappers were taking Iowa St

I'm looking at that game, but if I pull the trigger it will be on Mich State.

I agree with you about laying big numbers with Oklahoma. It's not impossible they can cover, but this team is a shadow of past OU offenses because Rattler is nowhere close to the level of Baker, Kyler, and Hurts. He doesn't look like he's progressed a bit from last year and his MO is still the same--every so often throw a beautiful long pass to someone and everyone says, wow what an arm. But for every one of those he throws three over the head of the receiver and one into triple coverage.

OU has quit trying crossing patters because he just doesn't have the touch to throw them and has completely dropped the hurry up offense because he just can't run it
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I dislike rattler so much, not only is he nowhere close to Riley’s past qbs he just seems like a turd to me!! Isn’t he the 1st one Riley actually recruited there? Wernt all the others transfers? I wonder if he kicking himself going with this kid when you think bout the kids who transferred out now playing qb at smu and one other place (I forget? Lol) amd how they might have looked in this offense? Seems nuts he was the Hiesman favorite coming into the season, that was just respect for Riley scheme and history I think.

I’m pretty sure if SVP laying it cause wvu must be a really popular dog since SVP all bout the contrarian angle. I understand that, and Norman at night might be too big a ask for Doege, the problem for wvu is I love Brown but sooners run defense appears to be really stout, don’t think wvu gonna be able to line up and pound the ball at them? Their run game isn’t incredibly efficient as is so this might be a tall order here. Can we trust Doege on this stage? As much I like wvu I think it fair to say their defense has taken a few steps back from last year after losing a beast on the interior to the nfl and a few corners that transferred I believe? I think it another stay way for me, I can’t lay it but I do have what I think reasonable concerns about wvu.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I see everyone loves Nebraska this week. It reminds me two weeks ago when every public handicapper on the planet was going with Iowa State against Iowa. I went with Iowa, but almost talked myself out of it when I saw how many respectable cappers were taking Iowa St

I'm looking at that game, but if I pull the trigger it will be on Mich State.

I agree with you about laying big numbers with Oklahoma. It's not impossible they can cover, but this team is a shadow of past OU offenses because Rattler is nowhere close to the level of Baker, Kyler, and Hurts. He doesn't look like he's progressed a bit from last year and his MO is still the same--every so often throw a beautiful long pass to someone and everyone says, wow what an arm. But for every one of those he throws three over the head of the receiver and one into triple coverage.

OU has quit trying crossing patters because he just doesn't have the touch to throw them and has completely dropped the hurry up offense because he just can't run it
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I love Michigan State equally as much. I think Nebraska may have shot its wad in Norman. If it can bounce back on the road, more power to Frost.

It's not just Rattler's inconsistency. It's also his WR corp. Just a huge drop off from prior seasons.
 
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2daBank said:
I dislike rattler so much, not only is he nowhere close to Riley’s past qbs he just seems like a turd to me!! Isn’t he the 1st one Riley actually recruited there? Wernt all the others transfers? I wonder if he kicking himself going with this kid when you think bout the kids who transferred out now playing qb at smu and one other place (I forget? Lol) amd how they might have looked in this offense? Seems nuts he was the Hiesman favorite coming into the season, that was just respect for Riley scheme and history I think.

I’m pretty sure if SVP laying it cause wvu must be a really popular dog since SVP all bout the contrarian angle. I understand that, and Norman at night might be too big a ask for Doege, the problem for wvu is I love Brown but sooners run defense appears to be really stout, don’t think wvu gonna be able to line up and pound the ball at them? Their run game isn’t incredibly efficient as is so this might be a tall order here. Can we trust Doege on this stage? As much I like wvu I think it fair to say their defense has taken a few steps back from last year after losing a beast on the interior to the nfl and a few corners that transferred I believe? I think it another stay way for me, I can’t lay it but I do have what I think reasonable concerns about wvu.
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You've seen WVU be a complete turd on the road for awhile now

And disagree about Rattler to a degree, he will have a breakout game at some point and if Riley is as good as I think he is, he knows this was his recruit and probably going to go hard this weekend. On OU -16.5 and I think it's gone down a smidge but feels like the kind of week he preaches that winning by less than 30 isn't acceptable
 
KJ said:
You've seen WVU be a complete turd on the road for awhile now

And disagree about Rattler to a degree, he will have a breakout game at some point and if Riley is as good as I think he is, he knows this was his recruit and probably going to go hard this weekend. On OU -16.5 and I think it's gone down a smidge but feels like the kind of week he preaches that winning by less than 30 isn't acceptable
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Agree bout Riley, even if rattler plays better I’ll give far more credit to coach, lol. i do trust riley to get offense going, it tough when i have no faith whatsoever in the qb tho.. total seems crazy low for a sooners game doesnt it?
 
2daBank said:
Agree bout Riley, even if rattler plays better I’ll give far more credit to coach, lol. i do trust riley to get offense going, it tough when i have no faith whatsoever in the qb tho.. total seems crazy low for a sooners game doesnt it?
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I pull for Rattler, he went to HS just a few minutes down the road
 
KJ said:
I pull for Rattler, he went to HS just a few minutes down the road
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i dont like him (clearly, lol).. it almost baffling that sooners only avg 31 a game vs the comp they have played thus far, that gotta be the lowest they have averaged under riley right? i def think wvu defense a little down from last season with the losses they had on that side but for most part they have still played pretty well, they been great in red zone, maryland roasted them early but they really limited them in the second half.. if wasnt for a few terrible 3rd and really longs hookies wouldnt have scored much of anything (not that their offense is any good), im just not sure i can pencil sooners offense in for the 35+ they probably need to cover. as long as wvu avoids giving up the big plays i could see them continue playing stout in the red zone..maybe sooners best avenue to cover this is holding wvu to a low score? i think that certainly possible but how low we talking? less than 20? i dunno. maybe they can force some turnovers from Doege but overall im not sure the pass defense strong enough to keep him from moving the ball? the total really interest me just cause it feels low to me. not sure that means over, just has me curious bout lot of things. lol
 
2daBank said:
i dont like him (clearly, lol).. it almost baffling that sooners only avg 31 a game vs the comp they have played thus far, that gotta be the lowest they have averaged under riley right? i def think wvu defense a little down from last season with the losses they had on that side but for most part they have still played pretty well, they been great in red zone, maryland roasted them early but they really limited them in the second half.. if wasnt for a few terrible 3rd and really longs hookies wouldnt have scored much of anything (not that their offense is any good), im just not sure i can pencil sooners offense in for the 35+ they probably need to cover. as long as wvu avoids giving up the big plays i could see them continue playing stout in the red zone..maybe sooners best avenue to cover this is holding wvu to a low score? i think that certainly possible but how low we talking? less than 20? i dunno. maybe they can force some turnovers from Doege but overall im not sure the pass defense strong enough to keep him from moving the ball? the total really interest me just cause it feels low to me. not sure that means over, just has me curious bout lot of things. lol
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Game has you schizo lol
 
KJ said:
And disagree about Rattler to a degree, he will have a breakout game at some point
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Agree completely. That's why I didn't even consider WV in this one. Rattler has been getting roasted this year and most of it is from students and alums who have observed the way he is acting with his NIL money. At some point he's going to realize he is out of line and Riley is going to get him focused and he'll play better.

But those who claimed he was a Heisman level talent just didn't realize what happened last year. He was ordinary until OU got Stevenson, the big RB back from suspension and that completely changed the offense. And it helped that Riley sat him down against Texas and got him focused and reminded him Mordecai could handle the job just fine if he didn't shape up. Rattler looked a lot better once he got Sevenson back, but all the type about him is based on potential, not peformance

Rattler hasn't proved anything to me yet, but OU has enough talent he is sure to have a big game at some point
 
Best Bets of Week II from the ESPN D-League Pickers:

Tyler Fulghum—Season 4-2
Duke -16
Iowa u 44x
Mich State -5

Bill Connelly—Season 8-6-1
Boise St -9
Toledo -4x
Louisiana -13x
Kansas St +6

Joe Fortenbaugh—Season 6-7
N Dame/Wisc 1st half u 23
Army -8
Tenn/Fla 1st half +10x

Doug Kezirian—Season 7-9
N Dame +6x
Utah -14
Alabama first half -28
Alabama first quarter -10.5
first half over 34
first quarter over 13.5
North Carolina -12.5

David M. Hale 2-6
Michigan -19
Louisville -2x
Wyoming -29x
Nebraska +5

Joey and Jesse Virtual Locks
Joey Week 4 (0-0) Season (1-4-1) 2020 Season (14-12)

Matt Week 4 (0-0) Season (2-4) No 2020 Season
 
TahoeLegend said:
Agree completely. That's why I didn't even consider WV in this one. Rattler has been getting roasted this year and most of it is from students and alums who have observed the way he is acting with his NIL money. At some point he's going to realize he is out of line and Riley is going to get him focused and he'll play better.

But those who claimed he was a Heisman level talent just didn't realize what happened last year. He was ordinary until OU got Stevenson, the big RB back from suspension and that completely changed the offense. And it helped that Riley sat him down against Texas and got him focused and reminded him Mordecai could handle the job just fine if he didn't shape up. Rattler looked a lot better once he got Sevenson back, but all the type about him is based on potential, not peformance

Rattler hasn't proved anything to me yet, but OU has enough talent he is sure to have a big game at some point
Click to expand...

I really think sooners would be better off with Mordecia! Of course I’m not bout to claim i know more than Lincoln Riley and he saw them both every day so I’m in no position to say otherwise!! That said Rattler is the 1st qb Riley has gotten fresh out of HS correct? Maybe this fact gives him blinders as he wants him to have the same success the transfers did!???? Beats me, thing is Everytime I watch rattler I don’t think I’m watching a Heisman candidate and most certainly not a 1st round pick I heard him being talked about as coming into the season. Before this kid I thought pretty much any qb with a ounce of talent could step onto the field running this sooners offense and score 40!! Guess not!!! I still agree with you guys that sooners bound to hang a monster score sooner than later, won’t change my opinion on rattler but should get them a cover and help shift the national perception.
 
Here cowherd blazing 5:

Washinton +7
Pats -2.5 (can’t believe this dropped under -3, this my favorite nfl play thiis week).
Bungals +3
Fish +3.5
Eagles +3.5

Not sure i love his card but good to see him getting back to dogs at least! He has bungals, fish, and Eagles winning outright. I like Eagles with the points also. Think it a good move taking the dog in all Cowboys games this year as feels like they gonna be in bunch of games that come down to the wire.
 
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He had some interesting stats/trends on the Raiders. Apparently no team has ever started the season playing 3 games against teams who had won 10 games or more the previous year and won all 3! Think it was 38 different times in history and no team has went 3-0!! I dunno how relevant that really is but I did think it was interesting!

He had one other interesting tidbit but struggling to remember what it was!! Lol. Gonna rewind real fast!

Oh yea. Teams who get beat by 30+ come back and cover 62% the time following week. That seems more relevant.
 
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