ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 11

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TahoeLegend

Pretty much a regular
Replaced Week 10 results with Week 11 picks to save some good info from 2daBank and other pickers.

Posted McElroy's picks from Daily Wager. He leads all pickers on that show. Steve is going Georgia State because he says it's definite the CC QB is out. He picked the same three games on Daily Wage Triple Option

Stanford Steve— Week 11 (0-0) Season (31-23) Best Bet (4-2) 2020 Season (32-27)
Georgia State +10.5
Texas A&M -2.5
Oregon State -12.5

Scott Van Pelt— Week 11 (0-0) Season (39-28) 2020 Season (42-39)
Fla St (+2.5)
Baylor (+5.5)
Miss (+2.5)
Penn St (+1.5)
Maryland (+13)
Wisconsin (-24.5)
Ohio St (-21)
LSU (+2.5)

Greg McElroy— Week 11 (0-0) Season (17-13)
N Illinois +2x
Baylor +5x
Tennessee +20

Phil Steele-- Week 11 (0-0) Season (35-36) 2020 Season (27-40)
ULM -3
MTSU -10
Florida -31x
Miami Fla -2x
Oregon St -12
Kentucky -21
V Tech -11x
E Tenn St +9
Presbyterian +13

Colin Cowherd Blazing Five— Week 10 (0-0) Season (21-30) 2020 Season (35-37)
Dallas -8
Cleveland +2x (says this is his pick of the week, one of his favorites of entire season)
Detroit +8
New Orleans +3
Minnesota +3

My Picks— Week 11 (0-0) Season (40-23) 2020 Season (48-31)
Oregon St -12
N Dame -4x
SMU -7
Iowa ML
N Dame ML
Okla St -11
Okla St-ML
Lean Iowa, aTm, N dame, SD State, Arkansas, SMU, BC, NC State, Syracuse.
No strong feelings on any of them. Two Max Bets last week but anything I bet this week will be one unit. I like all those ACC teams, but will wait for 2daBank to check in. I've won every time I've bet Pitt, but not sure they can cover that many against a N Carolina team that keeps playing hard for Mac.
Liking Oklahoma State more as the week has gone on. Night game so no hurry to pull the trigger

Gameday Super Dog Pick, Season Record
Lee—6-3-1
Desmond—6-4
Kirk—6-4
Reece—5-5
David—4-6
 
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ML DOG PICKERS:

Pamela Maldonado— Week 10 (1-0) Season (12-12)
(no ML dog picks this week)
S Alabama+22x
UCF +7x
Troy +7
Wake Forest -2x
Ole Miss/aTm u 57

Bill Trocci— Week 10 (0-3) Season (14-16)
Baylor
Syracuse
Ole Miss

Zac Al-Khateeb— Week 10 (0-3) Season (13-17)
Bayor
Purdue
Ole Miss

Bill Bender-- Week 10 (0-3) Season (9-21)
Northwestern
UCF
Virginia
 
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Best week of the year for the D-League pickers. Three of them are now above .500 for the year, although just barely in the black. Bear continued what has been a dismal season.

ESPN D-League Pickers:

Tyler Fulghum—Season 14-12
Mizzou/S Carolina o55
Texas -30.5 (has faded Kansas every game but one, will fade them the rest of season)

Joe Fortenbaugh—Season 21-18
Oklahoma/Baylor o62.5
Virginia/N Dame o64
San Diego State -2

Bill Connelly—Season 25-22
Wyoming +13.5
Coastal -10.5
WKU -18
Ohio State -20
Arizona State -5.5

Doug Kezirian—Season 18-20
Utah -24,
Utah 1st half -13.5
UCLA/Colorado o57
Arizona team tt u15

David M. Hale—Season 15-15
Tulane +3
UNLV +3
Ole Miss +2.5

The Bear— Week 11 (0-0) Season (19-31) 2020 Season (25-21)
Oklahoma -5.5
Washington State +14
Cincinnati -23.5
NC State +1.5
Oregon State -12.5
Syracuse +3
Bank Picks— Week 11 (0-0) (14-16)
 
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First really good week of the season. I've been one game in the black every week, but mostly 3-2, 4-3, always grinding it out, just a couple of weeks where I was more than one over so it's a relief to finally have a real good one
 
Phil Steele had a losing week and dropped below .500 for the year. And became the only picker in the USA to give points with both UConn and UMass this year
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UConn is 4-5 ATS, but 0-2 as a favorite. Bet UConn as a dog and you're 4-3.
 
TahoeLegend said:
The pickers were hot this week. Stanford Steve and SVP killed it. The D-League pickers had their best week of the year. Well, except for Bear.

My Picks— Week 10 (6-1) Season (40-23) 2020 Season (48-31)
Oklahoma St -3 Win
Texas A&M -4 Win
BC +3 Win
W Forest/N Caro o 77 Win
Okla State ML Win
Purdue +3 Win
Kentucky +1x Lose
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:claphands: :claphands:
 
s--k said:
UConn is 4-5 ATS, but 0-2 as a favorite. Bet UConn as a dog and you're 4-3.
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I'll let you bet them. I have enough trouble trying to win on teams with winning records ATS.

The teams I've bet the most this year are Mich State, Pitt, Nevada, Okla St, Baylor, Syracuse, and N Dame. The worst of them is 66% ATS this year. I'm betting on teams that cover for me 66%+ for the season. Phil is betting on teams like UConn 44% , and UMass 33%.

No wonder he's under .500. He'll always be under .500 as long as he bets teams that cover less than 50% of the time
 
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TahoeLegend said:
I'll let you bet them. I have enough trouble trying to win on teams with winning records ATS.

The teams I've bet the most this year are Mich State, Pitt, Nevada, Okla St, Baylor, Syracuse, and N Dame. The worst of them is 66% ATS this year. I'm betting on teams that cover for me 66% of the time. Phil is betting on teams like UConn 44% , and UMass 33%.

No wonder he's under .500. He'll always be under .500 as long as he bets teams that cover less than 50% of the time
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in that regard

TX-San Ant8-1-088.9%20.7+10.2
Syracuse8-1-088.9%6.9+8.0
Bowling Grn7-2-077.8%-7.0+5.7
Michigan7-2-077.8%20.2+7.0
Oklahoma St7-2-077.8%12.4+4.4
Pittsburgh7-2-077.8%22.3+8.2
E Carolina6-2-175.0%6.6+6.6
Michigan St6-2-175.0%11.3+7.1
Penn State6-3-066.7%10.3+1.8
N Mex State6-3-066.7%-15.0+3.2
TX El Paso6-3-066.7%1.7+3.9
W Kentucky6-3-066.7%11.9+4.2
Virginia6-3-066.7%8.1+2.9
UNLV6-3-066.7%-13.0+4.1
Utah State6-3-066.7%4.6+5.8
Boise State6-3-066.7%9.6+6.2
Wash State6-3-066.7%1.2+1.7
Nevada6-3-066.7%12.1+1.1
Notre Dame6-3-066.7%10.3+4.3
North Texas6-3-066.7%-6.0+1.8
Baylor6-3-066.7%15.8+6.8
Georgia6-3-066.7%31.9+10.4
Texas A&M6-3-066.7%13.9+2.2
App State6-3-066.7%12.9+1.5
Kentucky6-3-066.7%5.2+0.2
NC State6-3-066.7%15.1+7.1
Georgia State6-3-066.7%-6.0-1.6
Coastal Car6-3-066.7%25.2+3.1
Old Dominion6-3-0
 
TahoeLegend said:
First really good week of the season. I've been one game in the black every week, but mostly 3-2, 4-3, always grinding it out, just a couple of weeks where I was more than one over so it's a relief to finally have a real good one
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It’s not official but I think you have the best record on the board on games we disagree on! I keep telling myself I’m bound to get the next one every time it happens (most the guys I respect we tend to go back and forth) but I never do, lol. I can’t freaking remember one game this year we were on oppo and I got the better of.
 
2daBank said:
It’s not official but I think you have the best record on the board on games we disagree on! I keep telling myself I’m bound to get the next one every time it happens (most the guys I respect we tend to go back and forth) but I never do, lol. I can’t freaking remember one game this year we were on oppo and I got the better of.
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Ha! I was thinking the same thing after that Auburn/aTm game. That's what worries me. That's a streak that can't continue so I'm going to be careful this week
 
Weather highly likely for that Pitt/N Carolina game. Steady rain, a little wind, but warm. How does that factor into your thinking.

A lot of interesting ACC games this week. NC St at Wake at night , Syracuse at Louisville, BC at Fla State. Any opinion on those?
 
TahoeLegend said:
Weather highly likely for that Pitt/N Carolina game. Steady rain, a little wind, but warm. How does that factor into your thinking.

A lot of interesting ACC games this week. NC St at Wake at night , Syracuse at Louisville, BC at Fla State. Any opinion on those?
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bc is at gtech, i freaking love BC,, i understand them being dogs if Grosel was playing but with Jurkovec back i think they the better team.

yea i dunno what rain gonna do to the unc/pitt game. if it so bad it effects passing i gotta think it adv pitt cause i dont think heels will have success running on them, which is why i lean pitt anyways, unc offense really only goes well when they can run the ball and that tough to do vs pitt.

not sure yet on the others.
 
2daBank said:
bc is at gtech, i freaking love BC,, i understand them being dogs if Grosel was playing but with Jurkovec back i think they the bette
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Same here. They are a totally different team with BC. My only reservation is I have zero feel for G Tech. I haven't bet them or bet against them all year, but when I see their score it's always different than I thought it would be
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here. They are a totally different team with BC. My only reservation is I have zero feel for G Tech. I haven't bet them or bet against them all year, but when I see their score it's always different than I thought it would be
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i feel like ive had pretty good feel when to bet and fade them., only loss i took was when i waited and got shit number against duke and lost by the hook.. i woulda worried for BC and understood this line with Grosel cause you gotta throw on gtech to expose their secondary, their run d way better than pass d, that why they were able to beat unc, as i say a lot, despite everyone talking bout Howell i feel like the last 2 years the heels offense really goes as the run game goes, then they pass off that and it helps their crappy pass protecting oline. the teams who have roasted tech are teams who can throw. Long as Jurk shook off the rust last week and they open things up he should have a big game here. the over might make some sense also.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Stanford Steve picks
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i listened to the entire pod last night and cant remember hardly anything they talked about, i dunno if it was me being tired and inebriated or they just wernt saying anything of value? lol.. i did recall him talking bout aggies/rebs and i agree with him there, i really like A&M. Then bear went on some stupid rant about playing aggies to win the sec and all these stupid ways to go about doing it that made no sense to me. At one point he said to play them but then but rebs vs them this week as some kind of hedge? that fucking stupid cause the bet comes down to bama losing at some point not how aggies do! so he gonna lose these hedges and then lose the future on ags also!! lol.. Bear is really starting to annoy me! the "bet the board" pod is 50x better than steve and bear bs.
 
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Added N Dame -4x just now at Circa. I checked and couldn't see any reason they are below every other book, but I'm glad they are.

Unless N Dame just lost 10 players to covid or something
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added N Dame -4x just now at Circa. I checked and couldn't see any reason they are below every other book, but I'm glad they are.

Unless N Dame just lost 10 players to covid or something
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i cant remember last time i played ND but im damn sure leaning that way as well. the team total idea being discussed in the other thread makes a lot of sense but as we were saying if armstrong out (which seems like it be dumb to play him, i know this a big tv game but has nothing to do with acc so i wouldnt rush him back) then will irish have the incentive to score above their number? they might anyways but the more we talked bout that angle the more just laying it with nd seemed to make more sense.
 
2daBank said:
they might anyways but the more we talked bout that angle the more just laying it with nd seemed to make more sense.
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That's what I finally decided.

Did you make a decision on the Pitt/N Carolina game? I haven't lost on Pitt yet this year, but the only game I was on them where they really took control and were never threatened was Clemson

Looks like weather will be no factor

What are you doing on that one?
 
TahoeLegend said:
That's what I finally decided.

Did you make a decision on the Pitt/N Carolina game? I haven't lost on Pitt yet this year, but the only game I was on them where they really took control and were never threatened was Clemson

Looks like weather will be no factor

What are you doing on that one?
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i havnt done anything yet. i think pitt the right side but i dont feel great about it. i think pitt will shut down the unc run game but im a little concerned how much the gtech qb ran for, howell been using his legs a lot this year. that kinda a X factor that play a big part in result and im not sure on how it will go?

obviously pitt secondary can be beat, we have seen them get roasted plenty and heels certainly capable of that, but their oline doesnt protect well, i think unc much better when the run game working, when it not Howell has struggled this year and even going back to last when those 2 nfl rbs they had didnt get going the passing attack wasnt the same imo.. I guess what im saying is pitt by a td a pretty good line cause that about where i think it should be. most likely a pass and just watch for me. that a bummer cause there very few good nbva 3 point props to play tonight so i would like action on this, just dont want to force anything just for sake of action,. i would never play this game if it was Saturday so i shouldnt now either!!
 
I listen to the Next Round show and have come to really like it, including a weekly segment with Wimp Sanderson. Old, crotchety, chock full of comedic value. But he's a capping fool and is 10-1 this season in CFB.

His play this week is Okie State.

Just posting for grins.
 
if ya'll dont mind the prop route maybe there a play tonight.

i almost never play unders but i think ty chandler u83.5 rushing a decent bet, pitt run d is solid, if unc has success on ground i think it have to be howell. Chandler has been good lately but against mostly weak run defenses, he ran right at this number against ND, i think pitt can hold himin the 50-60s range. i have seen them struggle to get him going at times and id think that be the case vs a pit d that way easier to beat thru the air.
 
pickett over 2,5 tds is just too damn expensive,,even for 2 team parlays it little higher than i like!! lol.
 
2daBank said:
i would never play this game if it was Saturday so i shouldnt now either!!
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Bingo! Right on the money. No matter how much I get worked up about a mid-week game I always ask that question before I put any money on it--would you play this game at this price on a Saturday? The answer is almost always no, and so far this year I've had the discipline to lay off if no is the answer. Saved me a lot of money too

I feel like you do about Pitt. That line is so close I don't see a bet, even though Pitt has been good to me this year. I might play it as a parlay, maybe with the over, but just something small like that.

Plus you've had Pitt nailed all year. Better than you have had any other team I would say. So it's a pass for me
 
Frank Costanza said:
His play this week is Okie State.
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Pretty good play too. I haven't lost all year on Okla State. Won a max bet on them last week and won with ease

I like them this week too and expect TCU to come back to earth after a max effort last week.

But the number is so big I'll probably pass. That's a lot to lay with a team that wins with defense
 
Lot of times I’d force something but I’m ABM this winter. I am heading up to play the props I think they strong plays.
 
Stanford Steve's best bet of the day on Daily Wager was Pitt -6

Said a couple of Pitt's good wide receivers was out, but he thinks Pitt has enough to cover
 
TahoeLegend said:
Stanford Steve's best bet of the day on Daily Wager was Pitt -6

Said a couple of Pitt's good wide receivers was out, but he thinks Pitt has enough to cover
Click to expand...

So far the d playing more like I expect out of them, I just wasn’t sure. Long as they bottle up chandler and Pickett throws 2 more tds I’ll be in there!
 
Unc offense is very dependent on being able to run, you wouldn’t think that w all the hype howell gets but been that way last 2 years. I just didn’t know if Howell running might be a factor.
 
Added Bear's Picks.

He's way overdue for a good week. He's had a dismal year so far. Dead last among the Daily Wager pickers, hitting only 31%. Dead last among pickers I list above, hitting 38%. Should be able to do better than that with random picks, so maybe this is correction week for him.

Oklahoma -5.5
Washington State +14
Cincinnati -23.5
NC State +1.5
Oregon State -12.5
Syracuse +3
 
TahoeLegend said:
Added Bear's Picks.

He's way overdue for a good week. He's had a dismal year so far. Dead last among the Daily Wager pickers, hitting only 31%. Dead last among pickers I list above, hitting 38%. Should be able to do better than that with random picks, so maybe this is correction week for him.

Oklahoma -5.5
Washington State +14
Cincinnati -23.5
NC State +1.5
Oregon State -12.5
Syracuse +3
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i dunno, he has had some decent years hasnt he? he kionda sucks so this could be a correction year,,, i could imagine being last out of all the clowns on daily wager, id kill myself, lol.. espn prob pays him more than i make tho, guess maybe not as important to him, lol, but shit, it would kill my pride!!!

i do like sooners but i know you and other guys i respect and better with Baylor than i am like bears, so im staying away. me and bear against baylor sounds like a loser!!! lol
 
no idea why ppl still laying it with cincy? i cant do it, they aint covering these numbers!! ill look and see if there maybe a good prop or 2 for cincy game but im not touching side. i do like wyo catching all them points to boise, boise has not handled physical run games well and that all wyo got!! think wyo live and def be close.
 
2daBank said:
no idea why ppl still laying it with cincy?
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Same here.

I heard Bear say the same thing I've heard other public handicappers say--well, they're due and this will be the week. I guess if you keep betting them every week they are bound yo cover some week, but to me a team that keeps failing to cover is a team that fails to cover. Period

But Bear reminds me of the scene in the Princess Bride where the guy keeps going back and forth about which is the poisoned cup until he has lost all reason. Last week the reason the Bear took Michigan State was something along the lines of, "well, they have barely been covering week after week and the odds are 92% against a team being able to squeak by all those weeks (he bet lost one them in several of those close wins) so therefore the odds are they will keep covering."

I like several of his this week, but I'm not laying that many points with Cincinnati on the road no matter who they play. Won't lay the points with Oklahoma either. I'm passing on that game although I may bet the over.

The only one of his I really like is Oregon St.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Same here.

I heard Bear say the same thing I've heard other public handicappers say--well, they're due and this will be the week. I guess if you keep betting them every week they are bound yo cover some week, but to me a team that keeps failing to cover is a team that fails to cover. Period

But Bear reminds me of the scene in the Princess Bride where the guy keeps going back and forth about which is the poisoned cup until he has lost all reason. Last week the reason the Bear took Michigan State was something along the lines of, "well, they have barely been covering week after week and the odds are 92% against a team being able to squeak by all those weeks (he bet lost one them in several of those close wins) so therefore the odds are they will keep covering."

I like several of his this week, but I'm not laying that many points with Cincinnati on the road no matter who they play. Won't lay the points with Oklahoma either. I'm passing on that game although I may bet the over.

The only one of his I really like is Oregon St.
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I mean just maybe cincy not that explosive and they getting everyone in conf best effort., I thought they would start rolling these teams after the Nd win also but once it stopped I jumped ship, I’m not one to keep repeating same mistake!! They not really built to cover big spreads, the defense better than the offense and they probably pressing being told they have to win by margin. Don’t make sense to me to play the due theory.
 
I don’t see myself playing any of his card. Won’t be against much either but no interest in any of those. I kinda lean NCst but that a tough game to cap. I think ncst has the better horses outside qb but I think wake is way better coached. Ncst should just kill wake with their 2 stud backs but every time I trust them in a big game they don’t give those backs enough touches and instead let Leary throw 40x! They do that and wake will roll. If both backs gst 15+ touches ncst prob win. This be a good prop game if they have them posted! Hope so.
 
Oh I do like wazzu catching 2tds vs ducks. Good chance I play that one of his but that be it. Don’t hate beavers but even tho trees are a mess I can’t lay that number.
 
if we think Ford is healthy after leaving last weeks game he should smash 94.5 rushing yards. trying to do some reading to make sure he good to go.
 
i cant really find anything more recent than wed on ford, fickle said he "wasnt worried" but wasnt saying if he play.. im assuming he play and if he doesnt that fine the bet wont count, i just dont want him to go out there and get only 5 touches and decide he cant go any longer, that would suck.. think the chance to get over a number he will hit easy if he healthy is worth the risk so im playing over 93.5.

also like McCain under 205,5
 
2daBank said:
i cant really find anything more recent than wed on ford, fickle said he "wasnt worried" but wasnt saying if he play.. im assuming he play and if he doesnt that fine the bet wont count, i just dont want him to go out there and get only 5 touches and decide he cant go any longer, that would suck.. think the chance to get over a number he will hit easy if he healthy is worth the risk so im playing over 93.5.

also like McCain under 205,5
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Pretty sharp prop guy I recently started following loves the McClain under 205.5
 
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2daBank said:
Cool. I’m the sharpest prop guy I know but glad he agrees!! Lmao
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I was going to say the same thing when I read survive&advance's comment then I see you said it yourself. Little mix of humor and confidence is good.
 
I think I would rather have Cincinnati tonight over USF and I'm never a guy who sides with the big favorites. USF relies so heavily on special teams and defense creating field position and scores, if they don't get that tonight, their O isn't enough. And USF is pretty much the worst D in the country, or think of all the worst defenses you can and USF is right there with them. True, it's a big name opponent coming to their place for a high profile game, so yeah, they will give it their best shot, but I really don't think their best shot is better than what they tried to do last week. Or maybe vs Tulsa. Games vs Houston and Tulsa show that USF is better in some ways than last year, but in other ways, those are also misleading final scores in some ways that makes USF look better than they are.

Now, is Cincinnati playing tight? Are the expectations and pressure getting to their play? Is that what happened vs Tulane and vs Tulsa? If Cincy is struggling due to outside noise and pressure that is going to continue to be a problem even vs USF. If Cincy shows up right and focused, the Bearcats can and should score 50.
 
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