ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 11

I kinda miss those CKR threads where he would say weekly, The line moved 3pts based on a release but not sure if public $ is on opposite or same side , as it has moved the other way. If this line moves in favor of the favorite it very well could be Billy trying to gain value on the dog. Either way its interesting to note that Sharps might be middling this line movement although it could be Publix driving the number.
I've NEVER seen such clutter and lack of commitment to an idea like that guys thread.

i loved that thread Rex did.. miss it.
 
I was there once. In the mid/late 90s we were all about the services and their plays. Looking back, it was kind of a fun experience. Win some lose some, just the stories of the guys. "we are going to bury your book maker" "what's your limit" They'd always want you to bet your limit. One time they wanted us two team parlay like 10 games with Arizona State vs Oregon State. I think it was ASU's Rose Bowl year maybe? They didn't cover! Was like a 19pt line. How is that for some action, lose a dozen two team parlays with one play? No we didn't tie it up like that, but I think we did take ASU. Following that stuff didn't last long for obvious reasons, but I wouldn't change the experience. Some funny moments with some of those guys.



You about to go tout on prop plays


lol, damn, ive never really heard any of them talk other than on that one movie about a fictional version of lang, lol. then local espn radio sells weekend morning slot to some asshole tout that kinda talks in that manner.

ME? lol. fuck no., i could never do it. 1st off if im actually winning no reason to sell them, secondly i could never talk to ppl like they do suggesting games are a lock and telling them to bet prob over their heads. Back in the day when i used to have pretty popular threads on sbr i didnt really love when ppl would come in there and just want my plays to tail, i always did them like our discussion thread and told ppl they should care more about the information and to do their own work, but you know how degenerates are, they see a guy hot and they want that "free money"! then they hate your guts when you lose a few, lol..
 
Wyoming should not have scored with :04 left to cover, but the fact they weren't covering is also misleading in itself.

I have a different philosophy from you guys. Not saying mine is any better. Probably no way to know which is better, but to me what actually happens in a game is the only thing that matters, not what would happen if they play X number of times or what should have happened

If I had bet that game I would have played Wyoming--and I considered playing them--but the result told me I was correct in seeing it as a no-bet.

It's amazing how many times Boise has played those type games this year. In the opener they covered because UCF went for two for no reason with seconds left instead of kicking the PAT. Against Okla State they failed to cover because they got a chip-shot FG blocked with seconds left. And they failed to cover last night because a prayer was answered.

Their fans who bet them every week must have aged a decade this year
 
I have a different philosophy from you guys. Not saying mine is any better. Probably no way to know which is better, but to me what actually happens in a game is the only thing that matters, not what would happen if they play X number of times or what should have happened

If I had bet that game I would have played Wyoming--and I considered playing them--but the result told me I was correct in seeing it as a no-bet.

It's amazing how many times Boise has played those type games this year. In the opener they covered because UCF went for two for no reason with seconds left instead of kicking the PAT. Against Okla State they failed to cover because they got a chip-shot FG blocked with seconds left. And they failed to cover last night because a prayer was answered.

Their fans who bet them every week must have aged a decade this year

much different philosophy, i grade my plays completely opposite, i have many wins i grade as bad plays and lots of losses i would make the same bet again and again., results are pretty random imo so i prefer going off the stats i think are relevant and repeatable, also win share in 4th qrtr big for me. But i agree with there a lot of different ways to go about this shit and im certainly not saying mine any more right than another, whatever works best for you is what you should do!!
 
the okie light game was worse than the chip shot fg blocked, they failed to win and cover because some idiot ref blew the whistle on a scoop and score fumble that was clearly a fumble which robbed boise of winning td, think that was the last time i bet on boise, been fading them a lot since, lol.
 
the okie light game was worse than the chip shot fg blocked, they failed to win and cover because some idiot ref blew the whistle on a scoop and score fumble that was clearly a fumble which robbed boise of winning td, think that was the last time i bet on boise, been fading them a lot since, lol.
Ha! Same here. In fact that's one of the reasons I almost bet against them last night
 
Passing on it. I like Tennessee at home with this many points and the way they've been playing every week, getting better every week, QB getting better, playing hard, but I'm leery of that Georgia D

I don't like to bet against the best D in any game, but one as good as Georgia, I just can see pulling the trigger
 
What is your take on the UGA / Tenn game?

Thanks!
Passing on it. I like Tennessee at home with this many points and the way they've been playing every week, getting better every week, QB getting better, playing hard, but I'm leery of that Georgia D

I don't like to bet against the best D in any game, but one as good as Georgia, I just can see pulling the trigger

I’ve got three two-team parlays open with Pitt as the first team and I think I’ll add dogs for the other team in all three and one of them will be the Vols, but I’m passing on betting them
 
Still no definite word on whether Armstrong is playing tonight for Virginia. Line keeps moving up and is now at 7x in some places. If he plays I'll be looking at over on the total and maybe ND tt.

Going to add N Dame ML for sure

Can't believe Samford is pounding on Florida like they are. What an upset that would be
 
Armstrong officially out for Virginia. May be why the line ballooned to 9x a few minutes ago. It may go to 10 now that official word is out.

No bet on total, just stick with N Dame side and quit pretending I know how to handicap totals
 
Added Okla State -11, Oklahoma St ML

Only one I'm still looking at is S D State. Defenses have been paying off for me all year, but I'm also 4-0 on Nevada, 9-0 over the last two years. Home field usually decides these even games, but S D State has almost no home field edge.
 
The lines were off on that East Tennessee State game. I didn't take anything, but we were talking about it.


Every book shows them anywhere from -7.5 to -9. Was tied 35-35 at HT, but ETSU won 56-35. So whether Phil says they were +9 or -9, they won and covered. But Phil gave that out wrong, or, what probably happened is he was looking at a website that gave early lines on FCS, like I was with 5dimes, and it incorrectly had WCU as the favorite. I have seen this before on these online odds websites that track multiple books. To me, I only thought it was suspicious. To Phil, he should've known it was an error. No way would a ranked and one loss ETSU team be dogged by that many, or dogged at all, playing at a 3-6 team.
 
The lines were off on that East Tennessee State game. I didn't take anything, but we were talking about it.

Thanks for looking it up. I'm sure Phil wasn't intentionally misleading anyone. He picked it up off some website and ran with it. I've seen even the most respectable websites have the number right, but the wrong team favored.

How did ML dogs perform this week?
 
How did ML dogs perform this week?

Of the ones in your thread, Bill and Zac each had Baylor and Ole Miss, they both went 2-1. Bill Bender went 0-3 and none were close.

Overall, dogs of 1-4.5 saw 7 upset winners
dogs of 5-9.5 saw 5
dogs of 10-17.5 had 2, Georgia State and Iowa State
dogs of 18-up had one, Kansas

I had two winners, but lost on more than I won
 
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