ESPN Handicapper Picks--Week 11

[2daBank]

I think I would rather have Cincinnati tonight over USF and I'm never a guy who sides with the big favorites. USF relies so heavily on special teams and defense creating field position and scores, if they don't get that tonight, their O isn't enough. And USF is pretty much the worst D in the country, or think of all the worst defenses you can and USF is right there with them. True, it's a big name opponent coming to their place for a high profile game, so yeah, they will give it their best shot, but I really don't think their best shot is better than what they tried to do last week. Or maybe vs Tulsa. Games vs Houston and Tulsa show that USF is better in some ways than last year, but in other ways, those are also misleading final scores in some ways that makes USF look better than they are.

Now, is Cincinnati playing tight? Are the expectations and pressure getting to their play? Is that what happened vs Tulane and vs Tulsa? If Cincy is struggling due to outside noise and pressure that is going to continue to be a problem even vs USF. If Cincy shows up right and focused, the Bearcats can and should score 50.

i think it been a combination of things for cincy lately, and honestly they not all that a explosive a offense so their recipe to blowing someone out is a lot more difficult than some the high powered offenses. they have to do it with the defense creating a lot of opportunities and not allowing teams to go on any kind of time consuming drives cause most cincy points are on drives with 10+ plays, they just not a quick strike team so their path to blowouts is tougher than it is for some teams who not even as talented imo..

 

[2daBank]

if cincy scores 50 i will be a little concerned with McClain un 205.5 passing just cause of garbage time. of course if cincy scores 50 there a good chance he has hardly any passing yards while they get up to that score!!

 

[s--k]

if cincy scores 50 i will be a little concerned with McClain un 205.5 passing just cause of garbage time. of course if cincy scores 50 there a good chance he has hardly any passing yards while they get up to that score!!

I don't know what team totals are, don't look at them, but I'd be pretty surprised if they don't end up between 40-50.

 

[2daBank]

I don't know what team totals are, don't look at them, but I'd be pretty surprised if they don't end up between 40-50.

their number is 40.5!

usf is 17.5 with juice to the under.

 

[2daBank]

if cincy scores in the 40s id say it pretty damn likely they cover, i have a hard time finding more than 17 points for usf.

 

[s--k]

if cincy scores in the 40s id say it pretty damn likely they cover, i have a hard time finding more than 17 points for usf.

No. Not in a conventional sense. I don't think they can churn out drives like Tulsa did vs Cincy. Cincy would have to help them and then that special team area is a spot that USF has really excelled. That is about the only way.

 

[2daBank]

No. Not in a conventional sense. I don't think they can churn out drives like Tulsa did vs Cincy. Cincy would have to help them and then that special team area is a spot that USF has really excelled. That is about the only way.

at times usf run game has been pretty good and cincy has allowed some good rushing games against them of late, i dont think that alone will equate to a lot of points but if special teams can get them some short fields (if not score) maybe they can reach 20s? think id feel pretty decent playing usf tt under 17.5 but dunno if i will. i have to work on all the nba props that wernt out yet when i went to casino for 1st time today, lol. plus i really gotta get some work down on 2marro card cause im way behind thanks to nba props and trying to get ready for the ncaa hoops!

 

[TahoeLegend]

Don’t hate beavers but even tho trees are a mess I can’t lay that number.

I thought a long time before doing it. Doesn't fit my usual betting pattern. I like to bet the best D and in this game I only have the best D because Stanford D is weaker than Oregon State's weakness. So this is a reach, more of a gamble than I usually like, but I do like the situation enough to risk it in a week I don't see much worth a bet.

Not sure if I saw it right, but in that Pitt game last night it looked to me like there was light rain when Pitt had their possession in OT, then a tropical deluge hit just as N Carolina started their possession.

I agree with your assessment of NC St/Wake Forest. I don't see any reason to bet that game at all. Had a slight interest in NC St, but no more

Slight lean to aTm, Iowa, SD State, Penn St, but I don't see anything I love this week.

I'm interested in what the handicappers on this board like, maybe something will interest me

 

[KJ]

It's a Tree on death's doorstep vs a Beaver. You know who wins that 11/10 times!

 

[2daBank]

I thought a long time before doing it. Doesn't fit my usual betting pattern. I like to bet the best D and in this game I only have the best D because Stanford D is weaker than Oregon State's weakness. So this is a reach, more of a gamble than I usually like, but I do like the situation enough to risk it in a week I don't see much worth a bet.

Not sure if I saw it right, but in that Pitt game last night it looked to me like there was light rain when Pitt had their possession in OT, then a tropical deluge hit just as N Carolina started their possession.

I agree with your assessment of NC St/Wake Forest. I don't see any reason to bet that game at all. Had a slight interest in NC St, but no more

Slight lean to aTm, Iowa, SD State, Penn St, but I don't see anything I love this week.

I'm interested in what the handicappers on this board like, maybe something will interest me

i seem to be in disagreement with couple i respect when it comes to pen st and aggies. i dont care who against me with A&M, pretty sure ill be betting them, i just think they a much better team than rebs right now, rebs banged up and facing a very good defense, i think aggies roll them. i could be talked off pen st for sure as i dont think im great at the big10.

you like iowa huh? strong lean to minny for me. i love getting points vs iowa and i think minny is about their equals. guess i need to make sure i can trust that qb for gophers not to turn it over.

 

[TahoeLegend]

you like iowa huh?

I always like Iowa at home and it's cold and windy. I'm way ahead on Iowa this year and every year. But I like them laying 3 or less. 2-0 SU and ATS at home this year when they lay the low numbers (and about 80% over the years at that number). I pass when they lay more than that unless there is some special circumstance.

I see them as a better team than Minnesota. Both have damn good defenses but I see Iowa as a little better, especially getting that DB back who has been out for the last few weeks. Minnesota is good too, good enough that 4x is too many for me for now. I specifically hate that fucking 4x number in any game.

I'm watching it and might pull the trigger if the number drops or might take them ML

 

[survive&advance]

i seem to be in disagreement with couple i respect when it comes to pen st and aggies. i dont care who against me with A&M, pretty sure ill be betting them, i just think they a much better team than rebs right now, rebs banged up and facing a very good defense, i think aggies roll them. i could be talked off pen st for sure as i dont think im great at the big10.

you like iowa huh? strong lean to minny for me. i love getting points vs iowa and i think minny is about their equals. guess i need to make sure i can trust that qb for gophers not to turn it over.

I’m with you on Aggies and minny. No clue on penn state game

 

[2daBank]

I’m with you on Aggies and minny. No clue on penn state game

i really havnt done a ton of work on any of these besides the weeknight games, i keep trying to get to it but then more nba player props pop up and i gotta put the work in on those, as much i love ncaa football i am freaking crushing these nba 3 point props so i gotta spend the time where the money is greatest!! plus i get more of these every night! lol... im finished with my nba card now so gonna spend the next 3 hours doing 2marro fb games, then got date night with old lady, after we finish that and i put her ass to sleep! ill put on the coffee and finish my card tonight. so maybe im missing something in those games as i havnt deep dived into them yet.. my lazy cap on pen st over michigan is simply they both one dimensional, if i gotta have 1 dimension think i prefer it be the passing game, and think i like Clifford a lot better than michigan qb. could be way more to it tho! lol

 

[2daBank]

I always like Iowa at home and it's cold and windy. I'm way ahead on Iowa this year and every year. But I like them laying 3 or less. 2-0 SU and ATS at home this year when they lay the low numbers (and about 80% over the years at that number). I pass when they lay more than that unless there is some special circumstance.

I see them as a better team than Minnesota. Both have damn good defenses but I see Iowa as a little better, especially getting that DB back who has been out for the last few weeks. Minnesota is good too, good enough that 4x is too many for me for now. I specifically hate that fucking 4x number in any game.

I'm watching it and might pull the trigger if the number drops or might take them ML

i been crushing iowa also, they a pretty easy cap for the most part, only game of theirs i have missed was the wiscy game and that was me being wrong bout wiscy more so than iowa i think (pretty sure that one the ones you got me on head to head, lol).. i understand the ml, i just love getting more than a fg against iowa! think i like morgan a lot more than iowa qb but he can be inconsistent as all hell, as i been saying i havnt dug into any these yet so im just talking off my perception right now. im gonna stop bs'ing with ya'll and start putting the work in now!! lol

 

[TahoeLegend]

im gonna stop bs'ing with ya'll and start putting the work in now

Let us know if you find anything

All these games this week remind me of Pitt/N Carolina last night--not a bad bet no matter which side you take and will likely come down to the last possession on who wins and covers

 

[2daBank]

Let us know if you find anything

All these games this week remind me of Pitt/N Carolina last night--not a bad bet no matter which side you take and will likely come down to the last possession on who wins and covers

def seems like a lot of good games, those tough cause they super enticing to bet but maybe dont offer a huge edge.. you have thoughts on ark/lsu? my initial square reaction was hogs less than a fg sounds great! the more i look the more im starting to feel like this one those games where my initial reaction was very square and very wrong..

lsu a freaking nightmare to cap but i really do think the kids love coach O and i think there a decent chance they go buck wild these last few weeks to send him out on a high note. if the defense plays with same intensity and all the blitz schemes they showed vs bama i think they will give hogs a real problem. ultimately if we getting a motivated lsu squad i think it insane to get plus money on them in the swamp at night!! total 180 from my initial perception but im ok with admitting my initial reaction is often wrong, in the nfl some my best plays are fading that initial reaction!! lol.. i do like pitman and think hogs future is super bright, just feel like this might be a really big ask to come into the swamp as favs, im pretty confident lsu has more talent it just a matter of coaching, focus, and desire to play their asses off which a tough thing to predict but kinda think we will see another big time effort like last week, if that happens getting plus money is a great freaking bet imo,.

 

[2daBank]

so here what i came up with for the 11am slate:

smu-7
mem 1st half -3
wvu+6
messy st/aub 1st half un24 or better
mich/psu 1st half un24 or better

not written in stone yet, just what i like after giving them all a pretty good look. didnt bother starting to look at any props, ill get to those tonight.

my thoughts on mem 1st half is i love them at home and think they prob win/cover but laying 5 or 6 to ecu when mem has a habit of blowing leads and ecu having a habit of coming back on teams late i just think 1st half makes a lot of sense.

i think wvu defense is stout enough to limit Vaughn, you limit Vaughn you limit k-st, cats pass defense has been horrendous so fairly confident we will get good Doege in this one. i think wvu can pull the outright in a game they need for chance at bowl eligibility, either way i suspect this a one possession game so like the points.

imo the ucf pass defense is much like sdst in that their numbers a bit fraudulent cause they have not faced many good passing teams, smu should be able to roast them thru the air in a game i think they take out the frustration over couple tough losses. since gabriel went down ucf has to control games with their rushing attack but smu run d is very capable of slowing that down so i just dont think ucf can keep up here.

if you gonna play a sec under you have to play the 1st half as i learned the hard way early on, these turn into video games in the 4th quarter so i want no part of that. i think both defenses have the edge here and just dont expect we see a lot of points in the early going as they feel each other out.

still lean pen st but i cant help but worry bout the times ive seen them pushed around on the los, both teams very one dimensional so id suspect the defenses are able to cause them a lot of problems. dont think there be many explosive plays so think under the safest play here, once again no interest in a crazy 4th qrtr so just 1st half..

that what i see, thoughts welcome. ill try and get the 2;30 slate up later tonight.

 

[TahoeLegend]

you have thoughts on ark/lsu?

smu-7
mich/psu 1st half un24 or better

I lean the same with with SMU and intend to bet it but waiting until just before kickoff to check any last minute scratches and and an update on the SMU RB situation. I'd like to see them announce Bentley is playing. That line dropped one-half today, maybe it will drop another half by kickoff

Not betting half in Mich/Penn St, but it seems strange the first half line is identical to Miss State and Auburn.

I leaned Arkansas, but finally dropped that game. Same reason you cited. It's impossible to know what kind of effort I'll get from LSU. They love coach O all right, but the defense against Ole Miss. The just quit putting out the effort. No telling how they'll play in any game.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Added picks from ML dog pickers

 

[s--k]

Added picks from ML dog pickers

Wow, Bender on Northwestern ML. He has the worst season long record. Wonder if he has a knack for the big dog upsets? Bill Bender just sounds like a fake name doesn't?

 

[2daBank]

well at least Ford just didnt suite up so ill get my money back on his bets.. i went to casino to put more on the McClain under passing yards but didnt realize the fucking game started at 5 central, what kind of dumb shit friday night start time is that???? pisses me off, i really wanted more on that prop!

 

[TahoeLegend]

Wow, Bender on Northwestern ML. He has the worst season long record. Wonder if he has a knack for the big dog upsets? Bill Bender just sounds like a fake name doesn't?

I think the reason he is on Northwestern is because of the way they run the contest those ML dog picker are in. They keep the W/L record, but they judge the winner of the contest by most points, and they get more points the bigger the line. I think it desperation as the season winds down and his only chance is a miracle

 

[2daBank]

I think the reason he is on Northwestern is because of the way they run the contest those ML dog picker are in. They keep the W/L record, but they judge the winner of the contest by most points, and they get more points the bigger the line. I think it desperation as the season winds down and his only chance is a miracle

pretty much what i been doing in our ctg ml dog contest for last month, has not been working, lol.. i usually do pretty good, then this year the top 7 go to playoff and im like way down at freaking bottom so been swinging for the fences unsuccessfully! used to be i played those 3 every week but i stopped doing that early this year, lol.

 

[s--k]

I think the reason he is on Northwestern is because of the way they run the contest those ML dog picker are in. They keep the W/L record, but they judge the winner of the contest by most points, and they get more points the bigger the line. I think it desperation as the season winds down and his only chance is a miracle

OK. do I believe in miracles. 20+ point dogs do win occasionally, it isn't necessarily rare. Think there would be a better bet than this NW team against this Wisconsin team (Rice, South Bama, Vandy, Tenn and Purdue?)

 

[2daBank]

OK. do I believe in miracles. 20+ point dogs do win occasionally, it isn't necessarily rare. Think there would be a better bet than this NW team against this Wisconsin team (Rice, South Bama, Vandy, Tenn and Purdue?)

i dunno, NW tends to rise up and win one or 2 a year nobody sees coming. i still have a hard time believing wiscy is good but i guess they are? lol

 

[s--k]

i dunno, NW tends to rise up and win one or 2 a year nobody sees coming. i still have a hard time believing wiscy is good but i guess they are? lol

I'm aware. I was just thinking of the time I ML'd NW in 2019 when they were +24. Lost 24-15.

Different thread, but we try to be the guys that do see it coming. I haven't watched any NW football this year because, well there has been no reason to. But I have found reasons to ML NW vs UW as a huge dog before. I don't see reason for doing it right now.

 

[2daBank]

I'm aware. I was just thinking of the time I ML'd NW in 2019 when they were +24. Lost 24-15.

Different thread, but we try to be the guys that do see it coming. I haven't watched any NW football this year because, well there has been no reason to. But I have found reasons to ML NW vs UW as a huge dog before. I don't see reason for doing it right now.

i have no interest in them, just saying they prob have as much a shot as rice, vandy or vols if ya gotta pick a 20 point or higher ml. south bama is the one i rolled with in that range.

 

[TahoeLegend]

south bama is the one i rolled with in that range.

Just posted Pam Maldonado's picks. No ML dogs this week, but one of her picks is S Alabama

 

[s--k]

When I read the words South Alabama, as in South Bama as in Shout Bama as in Shout Bamalama - I always think of that song.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Added Phil Steele picks. I wouldn't even have to label them and everyone would know they were his picks. His never look like any other handicapper's picks:
ULM -3
MTSU -10
Florida -31x
Miami Fla -2x
Oregon St -12
Kentucky -21
V Tech -11x
E Tenn St +9
Presbyterian +13

 

[TahoeLegend]

Liking Oklahoma St the more I look at it. Night game so no hurry, but I think I'll take the Cowboys

Best team, best defense (in fact there is a bigger disparity between the Okla St defense and the TCU D than any match up this week), home game at night, blackout night, special week all this week at Okla State with unveiling of statue of Barry Sanders and all the great teams of the past invited back.

When some handicapper reels off all those talking points it usually means he's making a crappy bet, so I'll take my time and think this through

 

[s--k]

Added Phil Steele picks. I wouldn't even have to label them and everyone would know they were his picks. His never look like any other handicapper's picks:
ULM -3
MTSU -10
Florida -31x
Miami Fla -2x
Oregon St -12
Kentucky -21
V Tech -11x
E Tenn St +9
Presbyterian +13

That would be fun to play a "guess this capper" poll.

Man, I don't follow FCS, but I do know East Tennessee is good. They +9 must be playing somebody better LOL!

 

[L8kersFan74]

Joey Galloway (4-0 last 2 weeks)

Kentucky -21.5
W. Kentucky -18.5

 

[s--k]

Something is whack on that East Tennessee State +9. They are 8-1 at 3-6 Western Carolina, how is WCU-9! Might be an injury? WCU has won 3 straight after opening year 0-6! That +9 might change when other books post it?

 

[TahoeLegend]

Something is whack on that East Tennessee State +9

I'll double check that when I have the time. A guy sends Phil's picks to me and one of us may have transcribed it wrong

 

[TahoeLegend]

So far my instincts were right about this week. Pitt/N Caro, Boise/Wyo, and Cinn/USF were all too close to handicap and could have gone either way right up to the last possession. Pitt and Boise games were decided on the last snap. Wyoming hit an 84-yard hail Mary with 4 seconds left for a miracle cover in that one.

Every game on the slate looks that way to me. I can't find a single one that looks easy

 

[2daBank]

So far my instincts were right about this week. Pitt/N Caro, Boise/Wyo, and Cinn/USF were all too close to handicap and could have gone either way right up to the last possession. Pitt and Boise games were decided on the last snap. Wyoming hit an 84-yard hail Mary with 4 seconds left for a miracle cover in that one.

Every game on the slate looks that way to me. I can't find a single one that looks easy

I was very lucky to cash wyo but in fairness losing wyo would have been a pretty bad beat considering they went from having a chance to win to down 13 in blink of a eye after a bs holding call. Then wyo dumb shit coach for some reason strategically uses his time outs in a way to force boise to kick what looked like the cover fucking fg with very little time left!! So I’ll take it, feel like wyo was the right side even tho it took a dude lumbering down the field 80 yards w no time left!! Lol. I was sure he was gonna fall down/run out of gas!!

 

[TahoeLegend]

So I’ll take it, feel like wyo was the right side even tho it took a dude lumbering down the field 80 yards w no time left!! Lol. I was sure he was gonna fall down/run out of gas!!

I take the money when I win a bet like that, but I don't count it as a win for my internal handicapping evaluation. I count it a loss. I want to try and understand how I made the mistake I made.

It's great to win one like that though and I've been lucky this year with more going my way than against me.

 

[TahoeLegend]

Something is whack on that East Tennessee State +9. They are 8-1 at 3-6 Western Carolina, how is WCU-9!

I checked and it appears that's the way Phil sent it out. The only thing I know about W Carolina is they played Oklahoma and got hammered

 

[2daBank]

I take the money when I win a bet like that, but I don't count it as a win for my internal handicapping evaluation. I count it a loss. I want to try and understand how I made the mistake I made.

It's great to win one like that though and I've been lucky this year with more going my way than against me.

i count them as a "loss" or bad play when they were, in this case i thought it was the right side even when it looked like i wasnt gonna cash. they play that 100x and boise never gets up more than 13 in 90 of them (if we pick it up where wyo fell apatt).

 

[2daBank]

5 Pack of props to brighten the day

 

[TahoeLegend]

I don't know dick about props, but I might join you in a couple of those

Bentley, SMU RB is a go, so taking SMU -7

Liked Penn St all week, but finally decided to pass. i don't have a handle on Michigan

 

[s--k]

Wyoming should not have scored with :04 left to cover, but the fact they weren't covering is also misleading in itself. Lots of moving pieces that go into the outcomes of these games. I think Wyoming was a good bet plus the points, 1st H also covered. Boise is better, just not significantly better.

 

[2daBank]

Wyoming should not have scored with :04 left to cover, but the fact they weren't covering is also misleading in itself. Lots of moving pieces that go into the outcomes of these games. I think Wyoming was a good bet plus the points, 1st H also covered. Boise is better, just not significantly better.

i got no problem admitting when i made a bad play, def got lucky here but i didnt think it was a bad play by any stretch, id take 14 with wyo every time they played that game..

 

[L8kersFan74]

Something is whack on that East Tennessee State +9. They are 8-1 at 3-6 Western Carolina, how is WCU-9! Might be an injury? WCU has won 3 straight after opening year 0-6! That +9 might change when other books post it?

W. Carolina down to -4.5 now

 

[s--k]

W. Carolina down to -4.5 now

Yes, I'm even seeing it 2.5/3 now.

So I wonder how many people Phil gave it out to could actually get that line? East Tenn loses by 7 let's just say, win for him, loss for everyone else.

Northcoast (PowerSweep) has their 5* phone play of the month going this week. I got an email. They want $100 for it. No idea how those plays go for them, I do not track. We used to be able to guess what play it was watching line moves.

 

[2daBank]

Yes, I'm even seeing it 2.5/3 now.

So I wonder how many people Phil gave it out to could actually get that line? East Tenn loses by 7 let's just say, win for him, loss for everyone else.

Northcoast (PowerSweep) has their 5* phone play of the month going this week. I got an email. They want $100 for it. No idea how those plays go for them, I do not track. We used to be able to guess what play it was watching line moves.

i cant believe ppl actually pay these clowns for picks, freaking crazy to me.

 

[2daBank]

i got a text from some jerkoff tout last week, i text back if he asked nicely i would give him my plays for free then we could see who does better, lol.

 

[wiseplayer]

I kinda miss those CKR threads where he would say weekly, The line moved 3pts based on a release but not sure if public $ is on opposite or same side , as it has moved the other way. If this line moves in favor of the favorite it very well could be Billy trying to gain value on the dog. Either way its interesting to note that Sharps might be middling this line movement although it could be Publix driving the number.
I've NEVER seen such clutter and lack of commitment to an idea like that guys thread.

 

[s--k]

i cant believe ppl actually pay these clowns for picks, freaking crazy to me.

I was there once. In the mid/late 90s we were all about the services and their plays. Looking back, it was kind of a fun experience. Win some lose some, just the stories of the guys. "we are going to bury your book maker" "what's your limit" They'd always want you to bet your limit. One time they wanted us two team parlay like 10 games with Arizona State vs Oregon State. I think it was ASU's Rose Bowl year maybe? They didn't cover! Was like a 19pt line. How is that for some action, lose a dozen two team parlays with one play? No we didn't tie it up like that, but I think we did take ASU. Following that stuff didn't last long for obvious reasons, but I wouldn't change the experience. Some funny moments with some of those guys.

i got a text from some jerkoff tout last week, i text back if he asked nicely i would give him my plays for free then we could see who does better, lol.

You about to go tout on prop plays