EliteXC: PRIMETIME wagering breakdown
Tonight's nationally televised CBS event, "EliteXC: PRIMETIME" features a main event of Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson vs. James Thompson, as well as an EliteXC middleweight title fight between champ Robbie Lawler and challenger Scott Smith.
It also presents several interesting betting opportunities, and a few exotic "proposition bets," such as which fighter will win his or her bout in the fastest time.
Sandwiched between UFC 84 and UFC 85, I didn't have time to put together a detailed breakdown of the entire card. Instead, I thought I'd offer my take on some of the lines, and my thoughts on the best bet on the card.
As usual, all lines are current market lines from MMAjunkie.com's recommended sportsbook,
Bodog. If you're interested in learning more about
betting on MMA, check out the series of articles in our
MMAjunkie.com MMA Wagering Guide series.
Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson (-600) vs. James Thompson (+400)
At the line of -600, Ferguson is being assigned an 86% chance of winning. Thompson is being given a 20% chance of pulling off the upset. Slice's line opened at -350 and has been bet up significantly since it opened. I know a lot of people are betting Thompson here, but I'm afraid I haven't seen anything in Thompson's career that gives me confidence to bet him, even at the current odds. Thompson has lost six of his past eight fights, with his past three losses all first round knockouts, all together adding up to just over three minutes of total fight time.
More interesting to most would be the collection of "MMA Props" that Bodog has put up for the fight:
Bout goes less than 1:30 of Round 1 (-160)
Bout goes past 1:30 of Round 1 (+120)
Bout goes less than 2:30 of Round 1 (-215)
Bout goes past 2:30 of Round 1 (+175)
Fight does not start round 2 (-650)
Fight starts round 2 (+325)
Slice wins by KO, TKO or DQ (-450)
Slice does not win by KO, TKO or DQ (+300)
Seeing that in the past year Thompson lost to Eric "Butterbean" Esch in only 43 seconds and lost to Neil Grove in only 10 seconds, some of the "under" props have to look a little attractive. If you look at Thompson's fight record, he has only been out of the first round four times in 22 fights; the most recent was in Cage Rage in July 2006, and the most recent prior to that was in September 2004. Since October 2004, when Thompson made his debut in PRIDE against Aleksander Emelianenko, Thompson's average fight has lasted just over three minutes of the first round. Seven fights were shorter than two-and-a-half minutes, with only four significantly longer and one ending just over that at the 2:33 mark.
The line of "Bout goes less than 2:30 of Round 1 (-215)" assigns a 68% chance that the fight doesn't go longer than 2:30. Statistically speaking, Thompson appears to have a 64% chance of his fights going less than 2:30. But given that Slice's two fights have totaled just over one minute total of MMA action, it's easy to find "under 2:30" a popular bet.
Brett Rogers (-280) vs. Jon Murphy (+220)
Rogers is 6-0 and a powerful striker who most recently KO'd James Thompson. He is being assigned approximately a 75% chance of victory over Murphy. Murphy is 4-2 with a couple notable fights, including a win over former UFC fighter Sherman Pendergarst and a loss to current UFC fighter Houston Alexander. We've yet to see Rogers significantly tested on the ground -- though Thompson did try to take the fight there, but failed, in their latest fight. Unfortunately, I have not seen enough from Murphy to know if he can take the fight to the ground or keep it there. At these odds, with a relatively untested Rogers, a flier on Murphy begins to look attractive.
Robbie Lawler (-250) vs. Scott Smith (+200)
Two one-time UFC fighters come to battle for the EliteXC middleweight title in what could be the most competitive fight of the night. "Ruthless" Robbie Lawler holds a 15-4 MMA record, and he has won his past five fights. His most recent loss was to Jason "Mayhem" Miller in ICON Sport in September 2006. Scott Smith, meanwhile, holds a 13-4 record and has won his past two fights. Smith was given his walking papers after dropping two consecutive fights in the UFC, against Patrick Cote and Ed Herman. You probably best remember Smith from his dramatic come-from-behind knockout of Pete Sell at The Ultimate Fighter 4 Finale.
Lawler is being given a slightly better than 70% chance to win this fight, and I think that's about right. He's proven very tough and very much improved in his past two fights, with very impressive victories over Frank Trigg and Murilo "Ninja" Rua. However, Lawler has been on the sidelines for eight months due to various injuries and illnesses, the most recent and significant being a torn biceps. Ring rust is always a concern, but Lawler's training with Matt Hughes' H.I.T. Squad camp supposedly has him in fantastic shape. I expect this to be the best fight on the card with both fighters exchanging shots early, but Lawler most likely putting Smith away in the second round.
Gina Carano (-340) vs. Kaitlin Young (+260)
Carano is being assigned a 77% change of winning here. A lot of handicappers I know like Young to pull out the upset, but I personally don't. Young is 4-1 with her lone loss by submission and all four of her wins by knockout. She's strong, but Carano is notably larger (especially given that Carano is likely to be 10-plus pounds heavier as of fight time), and I don't see Young having the ability to knock out her opponent.
Joey Villasenor (-125) vs. Phil Baroni (-105)
This fight represents the best bet on the card, in my opinion. Joey Villasenor trains under Greg Jackson and holds a 25-6 MMA record. He's only 4-3 in his past seven, dating back to a split decision loss to Ryo Chonan in PRIDE Bushido 11 in 2006. In that time, Villasenor also lost to Robbie Lawler via a vicious flying knee in the opening seconds of PRIDE 33, and he then lost by TKO to Murilo "Ninja" Rua on the EliteXC/Strikeforce card in which Frank Shamrock defeated Phil Baroni.
Phil Baroni is a popular showman who has been fighting in MMA since 2000. He's only 31 years old, but the years haven't been too kind to "The New York Badass." He's now 10-9 in his MMA career, and he is 2-4 in his past six fights dating back to a unanimous decision loss to Ikuhisa Minowa at PRIDE Bushido 9.
Baroni has heavy hands but a notoriously weak gas tank. Villasenor is a well-rounded modern mixed martial artist, and with Jackson in his corner, should have an excellent gameplan for avoiding Baroni's strengths early and dragging the fight into the second round. There, expect Baroni to gas heavily per usual, and for Villasenor to finish the fight with a rear naked choke.
Finally, Bodog has hung one more prop bet:
Which fighter will win his/her fight in the fastest time?
- Kevin "Kimbo Slice" Ferguson - 29/20
- Robbie Lawler - 19/5
- Phil Baroni - 4/1
- Gina Carano - 5/1
- James Thompson - 10/1
- Scott Smith - 11/1
- Kaitlin Young - 14/1
- Joey Villasenor - 20/1
These odds are listed as "win/risk." So, for example, one could win $5 risking $1 on Gina Carano to have the fastest win of the night. A $20 bet on "Kimbo Slice" would win $29, or an equivalent line of +145. (Of course, you can risk any amount on these prop bets; you don't have to bet $1 on Carano or $20 on Slice, per se.) However, none of these stick out as being particularly good bets -- unless you think James Thompson has a serious chance of upsetting Ferguson early, in which case the 10-to-1 line for "The Colossus" begins to look attractive.
Good luck tonight, whichever direction you take. Personally, at the current odds, I'm going with a straight bet on Villasenor to win, and Villasenor only.
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