Early Masters Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Played a Poulter 85-1 ticket in early January. I'll likely be on Rahm too.
Rory answered some of this Sunday bugaboos at Sawgrass. He just now needs to stay away from being paired up with Tiger.
Agreed with GPS on Spieth. He is playing Valero this week though. Going to be watching him closely.
Rory answered some of this Sunday bugaboos at Sawgrass. He just now needs to stay away from being paired up with Tiger.
Agreed with GPS on Spieth. He is playing Valero this week though. Going to be watching him closely.
This stat was before the 2018 Master.....
All 12 of the previous winners made the cut the previous year
*Reed did not make the cut in 2017
7 of the past 12 winners had shot 67 or better at least once, and 23 of the past 25 had shot in the 60’s.
*Reed never shot below 70 previously
The past 12 winner had all finished in the top 38 at least once before, and 9 had finished top 20
*Reed finished T22 in 2015
Only 6 of the last 13 finished top 10 the year before
Each of the last 12 winners had won at least 3 times on the US or European Tour, and all had won in the 12 months prior. On 3 had won that calendar year. However, 11 of the 12 had finished in the top 10 at least once that calendar year.
11 of the last 13 were ranked in the world top 30, and 8 were in the top 20.
*Patrick Reed was ranked 24 before the 2018 Masters
(List Below in next above)
The last world #1 to win was Eldrick in 2005
All 12 of the previous winners made the cut the previous year
*Reed did not make the cut in 2017
7 of the past 12 winners had shot 67 or better at least once, and 23 of the past 25 had shot in the 60’s.
*Reed never shot below 70 previously
The past 12 winner had all finished in the top 38 at least once before, and 9 had finished top 20
*Reed finished T22 in 2015
Only 6 of the last 13 finished top 10 the year before
Each of the last 12 winners had won at least 3 times on the US or European Tour, and all had won in the 12 months prior. On 3 had won that calendar year. However, 11 of the 12 had finished in the top 10 at least once that calendar year.
11 of the last 13 were ranked in the world top 30, and 8 were in the top 20.
*Patrick Reed was ranked 24 before the 2018 Masters
(List Below in next above)
The last world #1 to win was Eldrick in 2005
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Jrs93
Member
Here’s my DK/betting lineup
OWGR
Koepka 4
Molinari 7
Day 14
Matsuyama 26
Poulter 33
Bjerregaard 42
3xwinner+last 12 months
Koepka
Molinari
Day
Matsuyama* (Has not won in 2 years)
Poulter
Bjerregaard* (2x Portugal masters/Alfred dunhill)
Top 20 and made last cut at Augusta
Koepka T11
Molinari T20
Day T20
Matsuyama T19
All have shot in 60’s except for the guy from Denmark. Got tired of writing midway but hope this helps
Welcome!
Jrs93
Member
Thanks man. Long time lurker. Masters is pretty much my end of the betting year. Always try and hit it hard. BOL
Awesome. Look fwd to more thoughts the next 10 days or so.
I gotta tell ya, I usually use a few different books for my golf betting / futures. I might reload at Bookmaker after seeing some of these prices, they are absolutely great. I am not trying to shill for a sponsor, but they are one of the best of the business and their golf numbers and options are outstanding.
Click here for terrific golf betting options
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Bobbycmartin
Well-Known Member
My book has Keith Mitchell at 150-1
He’s had some early success this year, I like the value
He’s had some early success this year, I like the value
Jrs93
Member
Georgia boy
Jrs93
Member
Feels like the last two years we’ve seen a major shift in odds from the books. I have seen so many golfers under the +2000 threshold and it really impacts strategy. Rory at +750 is unreal
You are absolutely right. This gets compounded at a place like Augusta as well where so many of the same names are in the mix.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I'm thinking about fading Patrick Reed as much as I can. Before last year, he'd never finished in the top 20 and he is in pretty terrible form right now. I've got him matched up with Kisner and Stenson, though the price on Stenson is a little higher than my comfort zone (-140). Might look at miss the cut props once my book releases them
aplous
Donkey Hater
RBTrojan
A Child of Aliens
Two tournament match ups I've played so far:
Grace -115 vs Holmes
Molinari -115 vs Spieth
Fades on both players is my reasoning here. Reed seems like a great fade candidate as well...
Year in and year out, by far my favorite event if the year. I'M JACKED UP and it's only Monday.... Looking forward to hearing more thoughts and discussion... Let's come up with some great plays...
Grace -115 vs Holmes
Molinari -115 vs Spieth
Fades on both players is my reasoning here. Reed seems like a great fade candidate as well...
Year in and year out, by far my favorite event if the year. I'M JACKED UP and it's only Monday.... Looking forward to hearing more thoughts and discussion... Let's come up with some great plays...
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Spieth is a total wild card. If you like him, Thurs and Fri at SA should help your cause. He had a chance to get out of the group at the Match Play, but he STB his last match vs Bubba, who was already eliminated.
I personally don't trust him now for 4 rounds, last week was at least encouraging. I would play Molinari -115 vs him.
I personally don't trust him now for 4 rounds, last week was at least encouraging. I would play Molinari -115 vs him.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Also not a fan of Reed. I'm a little cautious on playing any of the top guys to miss the cut, just because at least 50 guys make the cut, more if they stay within 10 shot rule. 86 guys? are in the field. So math wise it's a whole lot easier to make this cut than just about any other tourney.
Big big point about the cut
The good ole days this was plus money.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Honestly, this should probably be minus. Haotong Li and Kiradech are the only other legit contenders
Li is gonna have a good tunament the more I talk and look. Shall see.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
He's paired with Tiger Thu/Fri, wonder if the crowds will have any effect on him
Fair enough point.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Rahm +1600
Molinari +2050
Leishman +4550
Top American: Rickie +850
Top Aussie: Leishman +275
Top Debut: Keith Mitchell +750
Top Rest of the World: Leishman +705
Top Scandinavian: Stenson +115
Rickie over JT +120
Kisner +105 over Cantlay
Rahm -120 over Tiger
Molinari +2050
Leishman +4550
Top American: Rickie +850
Top Aussie: Leishman +275
Top Debut: Keith Mitchell +750
Top Rest of the World: Leishman +705
Top Scandinavian: Stenson +115
Rickie over JT +120
Kisner +105 over Cantlay
Rahm -120 over Tiger
Like the OWGR?
Kis vs Reed looks excellent
jimmymo
Beer and Betting Belong Together
No denying the JT is a ball-striking machine, but his putting is his weakness and I think you gotta either be just having a career ball-striking week or make your share of mid-range putts (those 5-15 footers, which is not his thing).......but my play is more of a "this is Justin Rose's time"....
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