Dylanphans 2022-2023 hockey thread

dylanphan

Pretty much a regular
Okay, just a quick intro, I watch a lot of hockey. I am a massive Rangers fan and watch almost every single one of their games so obviously my opinion of them is biased. Fine.
I want to use this tread as a resource to pick winners, and moreso share information.
I know we're only a week into the season so sample size is small, but let me throw down some notes. Gimme a minute to gather my thoughts.
 
First and foremost, there have been a lot of ticky tacky penalties called early in the year. Definitely not playoff hockey, so when backing teams, you need to look at their special teams. Rangers/Bolts opener had maybe 10 minors called. In the playoffs, I'd say 3-4 MAX were penalties. Both teams had a power play goal. Why do I mention this? Well, the o/u's are juiced to the over unbelievably. I'm seeing 7's routinely each night. I remember when almost every game was a 5 or 5.5, now you're lucky to get ONE 5.5 per night. So, you need to get creative to bet. I've been going props, and period goals, and goalie saves, but well, the juice isn't great either. So, we're going to need our collective hockey intelligence to make some money.

One other thing I'm going to say is the East is fucking strong, and the West is weak AF. I've been banking so far betting any east team vs the west. So far so good.
Teams that can win the cup imo:
Western Conference:
Avs, obviously
Flames
Oilers
Knights
And that's about it.
Eastern conference:
Hurricanes
Rangers
Lightning
Leafs
Islanders
Panthers
PEns/Caps/Bruins - all old but can catch lightning in a bottle

West just has so many shit teams, honestly, fade them all year long. Tanking for Bedard will go on later on, but for now it's too early.

Teams on the rise:
Kings
Yeah, I know they're in the west but they are pretty solid and I'd avoid betting against them. I think they'll be in the playoffs this year and could surprise.
Stars
Again, another western team but give this team another year or two, and they may have something cooking. Only thing is Benn and Seguin are getting long in the tooth, how much longer do they have.

Actually, scrap this, next post I'm going team by team. Let's do this.
 
Only going to do one division at a time. Starting with the Metro, because they will be quickest and easiest.

Best team in this division is the Hurricanes. They are really good, maybe lack an elite gk, but they play great in both ends, have great pk, have Burns now to help their pp, I haven't watched one of their games this year, but definitely this is the cream of the crop. Will have a chip on their shoulders come playoff time, they are my stanley cup favorites right now. It's a long season, I'm not making any future bets on such a physical sport, but I'll be on them often.
Rangers are the second best team. This team is poised to win the cup and I think this could be the year for real. They have been so much better 5v5 so far this year, they are winning face offs, they are averaging like 40sog per game. Mika and Artemi are elite. They've moved Kakko to the top line instead of Laffy and it's worked out well. Kakko is really really good two way player. Their power play is the 3rd best I've seen so far this year. Their pk is great. Their top 4 dmen are good enough. They've rotated their last pairing, we'll see how that shakes out. And, the other night they played the kid line right after a pp as none of them get pp time, and they go out and score a goal straight away. So much versatility in this lineup. I'm relatively sure they are going to go for Kane as that would make a ton of sense, just not sure they'll pay that price. I play Rangers pl almost every night - will play them pl tomorrow for sure vs the Sharks.
Islanders are third best team and really a team to back. I've played them pl the last two games and they've made me cash. They are another team solid in back and offense, but their special teams are not as good as the elite teams. They've had so many injuries and covid absences the past few years they are being extremely undervalued. I'll pick my spots with this team, but early in the year, you'll do well backing the isles
Penguins and Caps are interchangeable in the next spots. Both teams are old, both teams dealing with injuries. Pens when healthy have a very good top 6 on offense, decent enough defense, but I dunno. I usually pass on their games. Crosby starting off the year on fire could certainly continue with Rakell and Guentzell. That's a solid line. Caps have more grit and grind. I dunno if they have enough offense though, especially till they get their key guys back. I can see them missing the playoffs, I could see them making one more deep playoff run. Ovie will catch Gretzky in goals, that will be epic.
Devils are next up and this team is pretty damn good. Pains me to say it, Hughes making the next step, and there are plenty of pieces there. But, not enough defense, not enough gk so I play overs on them almost every time I can. Not the Devils team of old grinding out 2-1 type games, they can score.
Flyers are a mess. They should tank for Bedard as there is just nothing there imho. They need to dump salary, gather picks and a full rebuild mode in the likes of the Hawks. I am not sure why Torts went there either, but that said, they are going to be annoying to play against. They'll get in your face, hit you, just be typically Philly cunts. But they are coming in last place.
So that leaves me with Columbus. Jury is still out here. I watched a bit of their game last night vs the Canucks (but was mostly watching Bruins/Sens) and Canucks seemed the better team. I swear I didn't hear Gaudreau's name mentioned but once for like 45 minutes. WTF he went to Columbus I'll never know. But, they find a way to win. They have 1-2 good defensemen, 1-2 good lines, so-so goalie, and just grind it out. Mid-table team here, but they have one guy I'd love to have on my team in Justin Danforth. Maybe I never noticed this guy before, but he kind of embodies the type of player that the Jackets are. They have some good enough players for sure, just not enough of them. I'll avoid most of their games this year until I can get a feel for them.
 
All good points. I think you're spot on with the tiers of teams. East is clearly Rangers, Canes, Lightning, Pens, Bruins, and then everyone else. West is even more top heavy with Flames & Avs, then everyone else. I really don't respect the Oilers still, the Blues could be interesting, Vegas too with Cassidy will be very good.
 
Atlantic division teams
Florida may take a bit of time to gel up, but still probably best team in the division. Ekblad out for a few weeks isn't helpful, but better now than end of the season for sure. I'm not buying Calgary got the better of the Tkachuk deal. Yes, losing Huberdeau and Weegar are two big assets, but you received a massive one and significantly younger one in return. Still have tons of offense, so losing Weegar may be the bigger deal there, but they have a manageable blue line and could be great goaltending, so this would be the team to beat.
Lightning are going to be on the decline, but still should be a playoff bound team with STammer, Point, Hedman, Kuch and of course Vassy. But, the team has just been picked apart by free agency and cap hits the past few years, the pipeline is only so good. Probably the last chance for them imo to make a cup run, father time is goign to catchup to them.
Leafs are probably the most polarizing team in the league and they are the team I watch second most. Some people have them as cup favorites, others think they are hugely overrated. The truth is probably somewhere in between. My quick thoughts are they have the 2nd best pp in the league, the best sniper in the league and Marner is one of the best players in the league. Their top 6 is great, their defense is adequate but can they find the hot hand in goal. And FFS losing to AZ at home is fucking embarrassing. Can't add much more to that, we'll see how the season pans out, but I rarely bet on their games - I just bet on Marner to get points and Nylander to get goals as the market often overrates Tavares and Matthews.
Ottawa is a team on the rise and they are going to be very annoying to play against all year long. Very good young talent, they fly around the ice hitting anything that moves, they have some talented players - I'm a Stutzle believer, he looks a better offensive player at this point in time than Laffy, but their defense is not great, and they are a very young team. Fun to watch, bet the overs on this team as they can score, and they will concede.
Bruins are just getting too damn old. Maybe if they hang around long enough, Marchand gets back, they make a little noise, but I don't see it. Decent defense though and they've proven me wrong out the gate scoring 5 goals every game ffs, but I'm not a believer.
Wings and Sabres are both young teams with fun guys to watch, but I'm just avoiding them for now altogether as they are too inconsistent. I played the Kings the other night vs the Wings and Larkin nearly fucked me with a brilliant play to stop an empty net goal, but I got lucky in ot. Anyway, they both play hard and at least look like they care for now, we'll see come December when they are at the bottom of the standings again. and Owen Power has the potential to be a monster and Dahlin looks like he's finally rounding into Norris trophy type form.
Canadians I don't have much to say about as I've only seen them play once against the leafs and they played inspired enough, but it's early. If you look at the team, they have the names on offense. Caufield will shoot 10-15 times a game given the chance, but their special teams aren't good enough, their defense isn't good enough and their netminders are vanilla at best. They should come in last place and if I play their games, I'm picking my spots to bet against them. They'll play hard vs the Leafs, but they'll lose to Detroit 4-1, so if you get a good price, fade them.

Big schedule tonight I'll post some plays later on
 
Hadn't had a chance to look deep enough today on anything, so just played two gut feel plays
NYR o3.5 goals - 140
Ottawa -1.5 (+210)

Rangers offense is clicking big time and they are getting a ton of chances. Would consider a PL play as well but was hoping for plus odds, and no go.
Sens at home had a raucous crowd in their opener - I think the team is more comfortable there. Caps nothing special in my eyes right now, Backstrom and Wilson are big misses, I'll take a shot getting better than 2/1

see you tomorrow, maybe.
 
3-1 +4.75

Playing this trixie, 1 to win 4
NYI
Nash -1.5
Pit/Col o6.5

Bunting o0.5 pts -120

May have more on late games, probably not.
 
On the late games, I really like goals in the Sabres/Canucks game, but only thing I thought that looked close to a play was Dahlin o0.5 pts at -140. That's a decent price, but I decided to pass.
I also like Vegas to win tonight but I found a few plays I thought were better
Rantanen o2.5 sog -130
Eichel o0.5 pts -140

Was really tempted to boost the Eichel pts but wasn't quite good enough. I'll be watching soccer tonight, but back tomorrow.
 
6-2 +6.75

I really don't care for day time hockey, but I guess you play the cards you're dealt.

Kraken -1.5 (+175)
Hawks aren't good, Seattle has played admirably against much better competition, this has to be a winnable game for them.
Kakko o0.5 pts (+125)
Game that seems to have some goals in it, I'll take a top line winger at +odds. Kakko really been playing well, only thing is he doesn't play on pp top line but he should be on second unit there
 
6-4 +4.75
Yesterday no good. Rangers game was fucked when they lose Chytil on the first shift and then have to move guys around, never found a rhythm, and tbh, only Panarin showed up. Shit game. Kraken were dominating the Hawks, up 2-0 in the first, in complete control of the game and then they puked all over themselves.

Tonight some really good games. Early slate:
Ottawa -1.5 +215
Mantha o0.5 pts +110
and going back to the well with my man Bratherson 01.5 pts +250
 
8-5 +6.90
Gonna have to start by apologizing to my guy BATHERSON as I've been misspelling his name. Close to banking me last night again,

Tonight two plays
Stars/Bruins o5.5 (-140) 1.4 to make 1
don't love it, but playing it out of principle as the bruins are scoring 3rd most in the league at 4.3 and stars are 7th at 3.67. Stars coming off a b2b where we faded them and won, I just think both teams get to 3 and 5.5 here need be played out of principal.
Bratt o1.5 pts (+250) 1 to make 2.5

HAve a lot of thoughts on the Rangers game, may type them up later. Nothing played yet, need to delve into it. Also looking into Panthers game later
 
10-6 +9.00

Will try to post some plays for tonight later on, but some quick thoughts:
Rangers played much better last night as I expected. Tonight they catch the Isles on the back end of a B2B - need to wait for goalies, but this one could be a shit fest. Could see a 2-1, 3-2 type game, not great for much.
Blues played a perfect game last time out vs the Oilers and shut them out. They took no penalties, and kept the big boys out of danger areas. That does not happen often. And last game out Blues were shut out for the first time in like 110 games. I think we get some goals here, not sure what angle to play thuogh.
Bolts should crush the Ducks, but always a touch wary of the long east coast - west coast travel, but they just lost to the kings and this is the second end of a B2B for them.
 
Batherson o1.5 pts +250
Lundell o0.5 pts evs
Lundell o1.5 pts +500 (0.5 to make 2.5)
Verhaeghe o0.5 pts -105

More later
 
12-10 +7.60
stupid night. Lundell 5 sogs, nearly 5 minutes of pp time and no points. BOOO
Nurse 7 sog, nearly 25 minutes of ice time on a team that scores 6 goals and no points BOOOO

Oh well, gonna be busy today so probably no plays. Rangers are going to win both games this weekend though and that's your banker.
 
Mika anytime goal +180
Crazy didn't realize books were so far apart from each other but DK and MGM have +135 and Caesars has +190

Obviously I know that offshore can fluctuate more but that's insane just among a couple American books
 
14-11 +9.10
The prop prices are not only far apart from book to book, but within the same book. Gotta look around.
I was at the Rangers game yesterday, and frankly, the Stars outplayed them every single line EXCEPT NYR Mika line and the pp. Bad game for the Rangers, but good result. Hopefully they bounce back tonight and crush the Yotes.
So far I played
Kakko o0.5 pts +125
Hartman o0.5 pts -110

If Halak starts for the Rangers, this is an insta o6 bet. I saw it at -130 which would work. Should move to -150 the moment they say Igor's on the bench
 
16-14 +8.10
Huge slate tonight. Not enough time to post all my plays my huge fan of DeBrusk tonight. Only play I’ll post is Oilers o3.5 -120.
 
17-14 +9.10

The Rangers are very poor right now. No idea wtf happened, they started off the season in very good form and the past 10 days, terrible. Boston thoroughly dominated them, it was a disgusting performance. And the loss to the Wings last night was just inexcusable. The team has some injuries, sure, but this is hockey. You're going to need to deal with it. They have no offensive threat outside the top 6 right now. Carpenter is absolutely useless, no idea why they dress him each night. Blais coming back off injury is not NHL ready. his next threatening shot on goal will be his first. Goodrow is fine for what he is, but offers nothing on offense. Chytil been hurt, but putting him on a line with no other offense is doing him no favors. And I'm about the biggest Kreider fanboy there is, but he's been absolutely useless so far this year. I have no idea wtf is going on here. Team is going to need to shake things up sooner rather than later because Metropolitan is the deepest and best division in the league and they'll be buried in the standings by new year.
Othmann sitting their toiling in juniors right now just wasting time. Gauthier shows a flash of brilliance followed by hours of piss poor mediocrity, let's bring up Cullye instead. Vessey seems like a nice enough guy, but 1 goal and 1 assist this year, ffs, that's simply not good enough.
ughhhhhhh
Small slate tonight, I'll see if I can find a play. fwiw, I've basically just been playing Burns and Dahlin sog overs every game as an auto play.
 
18-14 +10.70
big games tonight
Pens/Rangers - two of the hottest teams in the league
Canes/Devils - Canes hottest team in the league, Devils reeling but in first
Lightning/Leafs - two more in form teams in positional playoff battle midseason

Rangers really turned things around here the last week or so, playing very good 5 v 5, special teams playing great, and they tinkered a bit with the lines, but of course Chytil gets hurt again. Reeves trade kinda stung, but probably best for both parties as he wasn't getting regular playing time. He was a heart and soul kinda guy though, hard to replace. Rangers still one player away from being a strong SC contender. They roll out 4 very competent lines, and 5 decent d-men and a great goalie, but it seems to me they just need one more dangerous forward and this team would be tough to beat if they stay healthy.
May have plays later on. May not.
 
Realize I didn't post much at all over here. Unfortunately, those CTG bonus checks stopped clearing, so had to put my resources to better uses.
But, for the people I'll give you a last regular season play, gratis.

Mike Zibanejad AGS +125 2.00 to make 2.50
(also a sprinkle on first goal scorer at 10/1)
Absolutely meaningless game tonight, Leafs already say Matthews and Marner vs Bolts, wouldn't surprise me if both teams sat a bunch of players. However, I think Mika plays and I think he gets a goal. He's sitting at 39 right now and the Rangers have been doing their best to set him up for #40 the past few games. He's played every game this year and of the guys I think get sat, if it were me, i'd be resting Kane, Lindgren and Trouba (all have been a bit knicked up). I just can't see them resting too many more players as they don't have guys at the ready. Both teams aren't going to open up a can of care here, so expect some goals. The reason I didn't bet the over as well is simply both teams have been stingy allowing goals (Rangers haven't give up more than 3 goals in almost 20 games now) - and Halak will be likely starter along with the new guy from Toronto. Anywho, lgr.
 
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