and an nfl freebe
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD width=50></TD><TD class=s2><SCRIPT language=javascript type=text/javascript>function tools(section) { var r_window = window.open('tools.cfm#'+section,'Tools','height=500,width=600,resizable,scrollbars,location'); r_window.focus(); return true;}</SCRIPT><TABLE align=center><TBODY><TR><TD class=s2 align=middle>|
All Games |
Indianapolis at Jacksonville |
Baltimore at Dallas |
Arizona at New England |
Miami at Kansas City |
San Francisco at St. Louis |
New Orleans at Detroit |
Pittsburgh at Tennessee |
Cincinnati at Cleveland |
San Diego at Tampa Bay |
NY Jets at Seattle |
Houston at Oakland |
Buffalo at Denver |
Philadelphia at Washington |
Atlanta at Minnesota |
Carolina at NY Giants |
Green Bay at Chicago | </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE><TBODY><TR><TD>
JACKSONVILLE 21 Indianapolis (-6.0) 17
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-18 -
Stats Matchup
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=s2>The Colts have not won a road game by more than 4 points all season (7 games) and now they’re favored by 6 points in a divisional road game against a decent Jaguars team that is still playing hard for coach Jack Del. Indy couldn’t even cover a 4 ½ point spread against a horrible Cleveland team in their last road game and I certainly don’t expect them to cover the spread tonight. Jacksonville’s win last week over Green Bay sets them up in a 101-43-3 ATS home underdog momentum situation while the Colts apply to a negative 27-74-5 ATS road letdown situation that is based on their current win streak. Indianapolis also applies to a negative 43-87-4 ATS last road game situation and a 126-200-16 ATS statistical profile indicator that suggests that they do not have the characteristics of a team that is likely to cover as a road favorite. In addition to the technical analysis, the Jaguars are also a good play based on the line value, as the Colts should not be close to a 6 point favorite in this game. My math model, in fact, favors the Colts by just ½ a point in this game. I won’t bore you with the details of how these teams match up (Jacksonville won 23-21 at Indy earlier this season), but a simple analysis using point differentials will prove my point about the bad line in this game. The Colts have out-scored their opponents by an average of 23.1 to 19.6 points and have played a schedule that is 1.6 points tougher than average, so based on compensated points the Colts are +5.1 points better than average. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have been out-scored by an average of 19.4 to 22.1 by a schedule of teams that is 1.5 points better than average, so they are 1.2 points worse than average based on compensated point differential. The home field advantage is about 3 points in the NFL at this point in the season (home field advantage is higher later in the season), so you get a prediction of Colts by 3.3 points using this simple compensated points analysis (5.1 + 1.2 – 3.0 = 3.3). I don’t use points at all in my math model since points are contingent on some elements that are random. The thing that is most random in football is fumbles and the Colts have been fortunate enough to be +6 in fumbles lost margin (they’ve only lost 5 fumbles while their opponents have lost 11 fumbles) while the Jaguars are an unlucky -6 in fumbles margin. The difference of 12 fumbles between these teams is equivalent to a total of 41 points (fumbles are worth 3.4 points on average), which is 2.9 points per game (41 divided by 14 games). Fumbles are 90% random in the NFL, so a net fumble difference of 12 fumbles over 14 games (0.86 per game) would result in a prediction of a 0.09 fumble difference in this game. So, the difference in past net fumbles lost margin between these teams (0.86 per game) and the likely future fumble margin (0.09) would result in Jacksonville being 2.6 points better going forward relative to the Colts (0.77 difference in past fumbles to future fumbles times 3.4 points per fumble is 2.6 points). In other words, the prediction of Colts by 3.3 points using past scoring margins and level of opposition of each team would be Colts by 0.7 points if you take out the randomness of the fumbles. Even if the Jaguars were -1 in fumbles in this game you still can’t come close to justifying a line of Colts by 6 points. Bob Sanders is listed as probable for the Colts this week, but Indy has been no better in 5 games with Sanders in the lineup than they’ve been in 9 games without him. The Jaguars, meanwhile, have actually played better defensively in two games since losing starting CB Mathis. My math model favors the Colts by 0.3 points using projected statistics for this game, so there is certainly plenty of line value favoring Jacksonville in this game no matter how you do the math. The combination of that line value with a good situation makes the Jaguars the percentage side to take in the game.
I’ll take Jacksonville in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 ½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +3 points. I also lean with the Under, as my model projects 40 total points. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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opcorn:
