Dolphins vs. Chiefs Discussion Thread

Germany game, Week 9:

Dolphins

Miami Dolphins​


6-3
Miami Dolphins
14
Final

1234T
MIA0014014
KC7140021

Chiefs

Kansas City Chiefs​


7-2
 
Cold at night banged up D even though KC has zero offense i have a hard time seeing Miami going into Kc at night and winning this game especially the way the season ended and how banged up they are
 
Sheesh. Dolphins healthy win by DD.
Who knows now but this game will be one score either way. No blowout.
 
Philips, Mostert and Waddle were out yesterday. Think Philips is for year. Other two may return but they wont be healthy.
No to mention Tyreek is playing very banged up. Limped off and missed the last play that ended the game with an interception.
 
Defense all banged up..... xavien howard hurt Holland .. OL banged up... if fins were healthier, I'd say they win but not sure how they move the ball on this defense. and even though KC D has been anemic i think they can have some success considering all the moving parts... i mean melvin ingram was in coverage last night .. now im sure they will have someone else but with all these guys filling roles id think reid can have some plays throw in game at night cold weather would think that evens the speed aspect..
 
I'll start by stating I grasp all the hurdles for Dolphins to overcome. With that, I'll lob out the alternative side of this equation... what has KC done to make anyone believers in them? Their offense has been mediocre at best all season, their OL is not good, Kelce has been nonexistent for months, and while their defense has solid metrics, they benefited from having a softer strength of schedule (so did MIA).

3.5 points and the playoffs seems like worth a big look. Also a great teaser candidate.
 
Dolphins are definitely down a lot of guys. Chiefs offense has not been able to exploit hardly anyone this year. Chiefs are now a running and defense team with a good kicker. Weird times. Chiefs EPA run D is actually still pretty terrible. Mostert and Achane could have big games.

It is going to be so damn cold.....there are a million tickets available. Miami in the cold not great but some of that will be offset by "it's too cold to be loud and clap with 15 layers on" for the KC fans.

I've got a flight booked to get back Saturday AM but worried about getting there and leaving on Monday when it's -5 degrees
 
brewers888 said:
Tua in -18 degree weather is a recipe for disaster.
Click to expand...

Isn't anyone is -18 degree weather a recipe for disaster? Why are we acting like somehow Mahomes will thrive, or won't have the same issues as Tua (and everyone else) in a game where it's that cold?

Also, with the weather being what it's expected to be, the running game may take on a greater importance. In that case, Miami seems to be MUCH better suited to play a run the ball down your throat type of game with the 2 backs they have performing all year the way they have.
 
jedi ninja said:
Isn't anyone is -18 degree weather a recipe for disaster? Why are we acting like somehow Mahomes will thrive, or won't have the same issues as Tua (and everyone else) in a game where it's that cold?

Also, with the weather being what it's expected to be, the running game may take on a greater importance. In that case, Miami seems to be MUCH better suited to play a run the ball down your throat type of game with the 2 backs they have performing all year the way they have.
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Josh Allen is the perfect QB for those conditions but in general you want a guy with a big arm that can get it through the wind.
 
brewers888 said:
Josh Allen is the perfect QB for those conditions but in general you want a guy with a big arm that can get it through the wind.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure the wind is going to be much of an issue on Sunday (they aren't calling for more than 10-15mph, maybe some gusts a bit more), I thought we were talking more about just how fucking cold it's going to be. Throw some rockets at the WRs and let's watch them try and catch the frozen rock coming at them.

The cold is quite the equalizer when it gets THAT cold.
 
Dolphins signing Justin Houston, part of the Chiefs old "puff puff pass rush" w/ Houston and Tamba Hali.

All 3 Miami edges former Chiefs....Houston, Ingram and Ogbah
 
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Chiefs should run Pacheco more than they have all year at that decimated Dolphin D. Pacheco is already a bull & the extreme cold will make it hurt that much more to tackle him. If I'm Mahomes, I don't throw it to anyone not named Kelce, Rice, Pacheco or Mckinnon. The extreme cold will definitely effect both teams, but most of the Chiefs have experienced similar weather a small handful of times, while the Dolphins haven't. The Chiefs staff is going to know a few tricks to help mitigate the cold that the road team likely won't.
 
KJ said:
I like this one

Considering I like unders in all 3 of the outdoor matches this weekend finding a prop is going to be scarce. Don't think there will be many TDs in any of those games but this one seems like the best of them.
Click to expand...


Love this Pacheco prop ..It just jumped here this morning to -148
 

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Without digging deep yet, face value (yes inj on mia) but how come no one talking about chiefs looking mediocre all year? Barely winning games, losing to bad teams… what am i missing on the chiefs love to cover 4.5 vs a very very good offensive team
 
This game could be a top 4 coldest NFL game of all time. I have a friend who’s been to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship. He said it’s was almost unsafe to be there as a fan when it’s this cold. Wind chill could make it minus 15 degrees. Have we ever seen a warm weather team win in these conditions? I’ve teased this under 57.
 
The cold temp thing might get blown out of proportion, but I will say that since I've moved to Texas and now South Carolina, when I go back and visit KC and it's cold as shit it hits different. Living in Miami and all of a sudden being in 0 degree temps is a real problem. Just my 2 cents. Chiefs practicing outside yesterday in 20 degrees and snow.
 
aplous said:
The cold temp thing might get blown out of proportion, but I will say that since I've moved to Texas and now South Carolina, when I go back and visit KC and it's cold as shit it hits different. Living in Miami and all of a sudden being in 0 degree temps is a real problem. Just my 2 cents. Chiefs practicing outside yesterday in 20 degrees and snow.
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Oh this is true. Your body adjusts. Chicago 50 v. San Diego 50... people 100% dress different
 
Did some quick searching for this type of cold weather game. It is nearly a coin flip but does favor the home team in total of who wins in these types of environments. The totals appeared lower but I have no context on who was favored, the types of teams they were, etc.

One other thing that seemed highly consistent - turnovers. May be worth looking at INT and/or fumble props.
 
Obviously firepower on both teams, but both teams have struggled to score when playing above .500 teams all season. Don’t see any reason why it would change in a playoff game, in cold weather.
 
The Dolphins are going to play well here IMO. I have been waiting for this moment to fade the Chiefs but then the weather thing happened. The Chiefs have not been right all season. Whatever the reason is its glaringly obvious. The Dolphins are really banged up and limping into this but I still think they have enough to be in this game till the whistle. Im taking the points. I will pay to see KC fix everything that they have not been able to fix all season in one week.
 
Coverdatspred said:
The Dolphins are going to play well here IMO. I have been waiting for this moment to fade the Chiefs but then the weather thing happened. The Chiefs have not been right all season. Whatever the reason is its glaringly obvious. The Dolphins are really banged up and limping into this but I still think they have enough to be in this game till the whistle. Im taking the points. I will pay to see KC fix everything that they have not been able to fix all season in one week.
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I kinda like the fact dolphins are b2b tough opponents....maybe it gets them in the right frame of mind gets them battle tested cause playing cupcakes week before stepping up....hasn't worked

I struggle to see kc getting margin. Dolphins straight up.
 
Everywhere I look it's KC wins because it's cold. Are the KC wrs going to catch the ball now that it's cold? I was on KC in the London matchup & it could have easily went the other way. KC gets a fumble return for td when Miami is at the KC 30 to go up 21-0. They don't score or really move the ball at all again- Miami loses on another fumble from the KC 30.

I think Miami is the better team overall. Defensively no Howard again hurts & Holland Elliot are banged up but I really question KC's ability to exploit it with the wr team they have. Wilkins is an absolute beast in the middle and Miami's run D is pretty solid so I don't quite understand all the Pacheco love. If anything I could see the Dolphins running on KC (Achane didn't play last meeting) I would think they look to control the game by keeping Mahomes sidelined. I think Miami has the best rb duo in football & if they're smart they use it. Hill/Waddle is more than enough to keep KC from crashing the run Tua just needs to protect the ball. Cold weather game all the same give me the faster offense with the better run game catching points.
 
Since Lex got to post his homer thoughts in the other thread, I’ll throw some in.

The focus of the narrative surrounding the chiefs all season has obviously been the drops. Drops that have cost them games. What is not mentioned is that in most of those games they outplayed the opponent and were in position to win those games.

The Chiefs laid two eggs this year, against Denver and the Raiders. They are obviously not what we are accustomed to seeing. However, they are still a top 10 offense, defense and special teams unit per DVOA. Only Baltimore is top 10 in all three besides KC.

The “if Miami were healthy” crowd is interesting. Maybe it was forgotten but we already played a healthy Miami team in a dome this season and led wire to wire.

Chiefs OL was bad? The interior 3 are the best in the league. Tackles have been subpar. Who’s coming to get Mahomes this week? Anyone with a pulse and no AARP card is out this week.

If Miami wins, good for them. People can say the cold won’t matter. That’s fine. I say the previous drops won’t matter. So we are even.

GL to all.
 
Capaholic said:
Since Lex got to post his homer thoughts in the other thread, I’ll throw some in.

The focus of the narrative surrounding the chiefs all season has obviously been the drops. Drops that have cost them games. What is not mentioned is that in most of those games they outplayed the opponent and were in position to win those games.

The Chiefs laid two eggs this year, against Denver and the Raiders. They are obviously not what we are accustomed to seeing. However, they are still a top 10 offense, defense and special teams unit per DVOA. Only Baltimore is top 10 in all three besides KC.

The “if Miami were healthy” crowd is interesting. Maybe it was forgotten but we already played a healthy Miami team in a dome this season and led wire to wire.

Chiefs OL was bad? The interior 3 are the best in the league. Tackles have been subpar. Who’s coming to get Mahomes this week? Anyone with a pulse and no AARP card is out this week.

If Miami wins, good for them. People can say the cold won’t matter. That’s fine. I say the previous drops won’t matter. So we are even.

GL to all.
Click to expand...

Cold will matter for both. Its all guesswork with these weather games. Flip a coin, who handles unprecedented weather better? No way to know. Doubt any of these players played more than 1 game in this weather

Thanks for the thoughts as always
 
Achane does scare me btw. Chiefs were #32 in rush stuff rate I think and #27 or #28 DVOA v the run. Some of that is part of the game plan for Spags....he'd rather get beat 4 yards at a time w/ the run rather than give up big plays in the passing game.
 
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