Does Hawaii have a better than 150-1 chance to win it all?

[Wooderson]

After looking at the Bodog odds for winning the BCS championship, the team that really jumps out at me this year is Hawaii. When you look at the odds for the Warriors at 150-1 compared to the odds of a lot of other teams that you know have no shot of going undefeated....it doesnt make a lot of sense to me.

Take for instance a team like Texas A&M. Bodog has set the over/under for the aggies at 7.5 games meaning most likely a 8-4 or 7-5 season. At the same time, they have listed A&M as 50-1 to win it all. No way in hell does a 8-4 Aggie team make it into the BCS National Championship game over 12-0 Hawaii do they. And there are plenty of other examples (ND at 40-1 with season over/under win total at 7.5)

So I guess the real question is whether Hawaii getting into the Nat'l championship game is a total impossibility. Does their pathetic non-conference schedule make a top BCS ranking impossible, even if every other team has at least one loss. If they run the table, they would potentially have wins over a pretty good Boise State team as well as Washington (BCS conference team). In a scenario like 2003 where each traditional power has a loss...could Hawaii squeeze into that championship game now that the WAC has shown it can compete in the BCS bowls?

150-1 seems like a great value compared to teams like Notre Dame (40-1), Missouri (40-1) etc. But if there is no possible chance it could happen, whats the point. By the way, if they did somehow make it into the championship game....no way you would get +15000 on the ML versus whoever they played. Like Boise State showed last year, a good WAC team isn't a guaranteed patsy.

 

[rolub]

no.

 

[RetroVK]

In theory I think you are right , but in reality they won't play for the title game. In my mind if they go undefeated they are still around a 100-1 shot to make it to the game. Any two one loss teams from a major conference (including the big east) will get picked over hawaii because their strangth of schedule is generally judged to be from 114 -118 in the country. And the fact is that they probably could compete with a major conference school. The problem is even an undefeated hawaii needs the #2 team in the nation to have atleast 2 losses. of course i also thought ryan leaf would be a better pro than peyton manning coming out of college.

 

[Starbuck]

Not at all...don't waste your money.

Hawaii would not fare well against a major team from the SEC or the PAC-10 in the championship game.

 

[RetroVK]

hawaii last year vs major conferences :

SEC : hawaii 17 bama 25 hawaii loses (0-1)
Big 10 : hawaii 42 purdue 35 hawaii wins ( 1-1)
pac 10: hawaii 32 oregon state 35 hawaii loses (1-2)
hawaii 41 arizona state 24 hawaii wins ( 2-2 )

total points for 132 total points against 119
bama sec conf record - 2-6
purdue conf record -- 5-3
oregon state conf record --6-3 (including win over usc)
arizona state conf record --4-5

Not the elite of the conferences but if teams that hawaii seems to be on par with can beat usc then i see no reason why hawaii couldn't atleast compete with them. The little conference teams get screwed and will always until there is a play off. Oklahoma -- a god around this site picked oklahoma s number 1 last year in nation ... how did boise do against them i cant remember ?

 

[RetroVK]

phil steele is the god around this site that i failed to mention

 

[JumpOnBoard]

No..if Boise couldn't last year doing what they did, why could Hawaii this year..

Undefeated wouldn't even be good enough.

 

[Wooderson]

Well I guess my question really had to do more with the relative value of Hawaii over some of these other teams that you know will probably have several losses and yet are getting much worse odds. If there was a remote chance that Hawaii could get in the BCS game it becomes an intriguing prop bet.

Starbuck- would I bet Hawaii straight up against a Pac-10 or SEC team absolutely not. Would I bet them against ANY team in the country at 150-1 odds....all day long. Their real value lies somewhere in between.They played the Beavers real close last year, and I seem to remember that Beaver team faring pretty well against USC. They also went on the road to Bama and played within a TD the first week of the season. The difference in talent isnt so great that the "any given day" theory doesn't apply here.

Jumponboard- I guess its exactly because of what Boise St did last year that gives Hawaii a better chance if they go undefeated (and beating Boise along the way). Boise didn't have a chance because 1.) it was unprecedented for a WAC team to go the BCS and 2.) there were 2 undefeated BCS schools. This hypothetical was based on the assumption that no BCS conference teams finish undefeated. Add to that the possibility of Colt Brennon being potentially the Heisman winner if he has a monster year, etc...

But in any case, I didn't realize their predicted SOS was almost the worst in DIV I. If thats the case, I guess it all but rules out any chance they would have to make the title game. Its hard to imagine all the BCS conferences with 2 loss teams as champs. Anyway thanks for the comments.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Yup...second easiest ranked schedule by most pundits..

 

[YesSir]

Plus with preseaon polls, HI will start so far behind the OSU, UM, UF, LSU, ND, USC, and so ons that even after 1 or 2 losses these teams will still be in front of them

 

[lindetrain]

What's the purpose of betting a team to win it all when they could go undefeated and win every game by 20 points and still not make the title game? With that schedule, they won't even get consideration.

 

[TheGarfather]

hawaii last year vs major conferences :

SEC : hawaii 17 bama 25 hawaii loses (0-1)
Big 10 : hawaii 42 purdue 35 hawaii wins ( 1-1)
pac 10: hawaii 32 oregon state 35 hawaii loses (1-2)
hawaii 41 arizona state 24 hawaii wins ( 2-2 )

total points for 132 total points against 119
bama sec conf record - 2-6
purdue conf record -- 5-3
oregon state conf record --6-3 (including win over usc)
arizona state conf record --4-5

Not the elite of the conferences but if teams that hawaii seems to be on par with can beat usc then i see no reason why hawaii couldn't atleast compete with them. The little conference teams get screwed and will always until there is a play off. Oklahoma -- a god around this site picked oklahoma s number 1 last year in nation ... how did boise do against them i cant remember ?

Latter three occured on the island which invalidates them. They would get absolutely fucked up if they had to play a good team in the Sugar, Orange, Rose, or Fiesta Bowls outside the friendly confines of Aloha Stadium.

 

[JPicks]

I think you'd need to be fairly confident that if the go undefeated they could at least get an invite to the NC game. Otherwise it doesn't matter how good the odds are now, you'd never be able to hedge later when they might be 50-1.

 

[RetroVK]

To say small conferences cannot compete in BCS games fails to see what has actually happened when they have been given a chance. take special note of the ACC numbers below.

Highest Winning Percentages By Conference
<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=tablebg3 vAlign=center align=left>Conference
</TD><TD class=tablebg3 vAlign=center align=middle>Percentage (Record)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Mountain West
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>1.000 (1-0)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>WAC
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>1.000 (1-0)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Southeastern
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>.692 (9-4)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Pacific-10
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>.636 (7-4)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Big East
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>.556 (5-4)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Big Ten
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>.533 (8-7)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Big 12
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>.417 (5-7)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Atlantic Coast
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>.111 (1-8)
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=left>Independents
</TD><TD class=tablebg1 vAlign=center align=middle>.000 (0-3)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Most of these big schools won't give home and homes to WAC or MWC or CUSA schools because they can't see the percentage in it. so now you have the BIG 10 playing the MAC teams every year and the SEC playing the Sunbelt teams. Would be nice if the big programs backed up what they say about the mid major conferences by playing them in home and homes instead of hiding.

 

[RJ Esq]

Seeing how there are only 119 teams in CFB, then, yes, it has a better than 150-1 shot of winning. Then again, so does FIU.

 

[RetroVK]

i'll book fiu to win the national title at +100,000.00 minimum bet of 10 bucks.