Divisional Round

[smh212]

Playoffs: 2-1 +1.43 units

No @ Sea
My Line: Sea -7.5 44
Play: SAINTS +10, -115 (1.25)

First the total: Clear reaction to the weather conditions, but I would have hit the UNDER up to 46 had I not been so preoccupied with the NBA. When these teams met back in week 13, I played under 48, which cashed, albeit, I did not see 34-7. I made the total on the week 13 game 46. Obviously a lot has changed in a month. IMO, the best bet on this game was hitting the UNDER at the open, something I failed to do.

This game was going to be a pass for me, until 10's starting popping up. I was able to grab a 10, -115 from my local and I see 5 dimes is offering a 10.5 and squares inc (Sports Interaction) is offering an 8.5, which bothers me a bit. However, I was prepared to play this game if it 10, and I got my wish. Clearly my number states a play, but with 8 and 9 being dead numbers, the value, IMO, was not there until the 10 made an appearance. It really is as simple as that. I've said your betting a number not a team, but for those of you who like deeper insight, this what I have from my notes:

• Before the Eagles/Saints game I noted that if the Saints won, the prior meeting between Sea and NO would be worth a second a look.
• Of note from the first match up: Seattle was off a bye and had an extra week to prepare. Caught Saints on MNF with the Saints playing (and defeating SF in week 11, and then playing a tough divisional game against ATL, who by that time was playing for and with a shit load of pride, which showed in the Saints 17-13 win.
• Saints had Carolina the next week, and would play then in 2 out of the next 3 weeks in games that would determine the division winner. In short, the situation overwhelming favored Seattle. The real Saints would show up the following week when they throttled Carolina 31-13.
• Part of the game plan that was written about in the papers and showed up when I re-watched the game last night, was the play of C.J. Wright on Jimmy Graham. After the game, Wright talked about how he was prepped all week to play Graham one-on-one as the Hawks felt he had the physical tools to handle Jimmy. The tape shows that he did just that. Turn the page to Jan 11, and Wright is out 4-6 weeks, so that plan will not be available this time around.
• While Seattle did have an extra week, they were not able to prepare solely for the Saints. Their opponent would be determined by the outcome of the WC round games.
• If you believe that Sean Payton and Rex Ryan are good coaches (as I do), then you will share in my sentiment that they will have a better game plan this time around. I think we saw evidence of solid game planning with 185 yards the usually listless Saints rushing game piled up last week. If you watched the game, the Saints one their share of 1 on 1 battles, BUT they also did an excellent job of setting up the run, and winning the personnel battle.

Good Luck.

:cheers:

 

[scdoggy]

See it the same SMH. This weather should make this lower scoring and the way SEA has looked lately isn't the same as what we saw in the first half of the year. GL today.

 

[smh212]

Thanks Doggy....let's get it.

 

[aplous]

On it...GL today

 

[nbafan88]

still frauds on the road imo

gl though

 

[T-Squared]

Playoffs: 2-1 +1.43 units

No @ Sea
My Line: Sea -7.5 44
Play: SAINTS +10, -115 (1.25)

First the total: Clear reaction to the weather conditions, but I would have hit the UNDER up to 46 had I not been so preoccupied with the NBA. When these teams met back in week 13, I played under 48, which cashed, albeit, I did not see 34-7. I made the total on the week 13 game 46. Obviously a lot has changed in a month. IMO, the best bet on this game was hitting the UNDER at the open, something I failed to do.

This game was going to be a pass for me, until 10's starting popping up. I was able to grab a 10, -115 from my local and I see 5 dimes is offering a 10.5 and squares inc (Sports Interaction) is offering an 8.5, which bothers me a bit. However, I was prepared to play this game if it 10, and I got my wish. Clearly my number states a play, but with 8 and 9 being dead numbers, the value, IMO, was not there until the 10 made an appearance. It really is as simple as that. I've said your betting a number not a team, but for those of you who like deeper insight, this what I have from my notes:

• Before the Eagles/Saints game I noted that if the Saints won, the prior meeting between Sea and NO would be worth a second a look.
• Of note from the first match up: Seattle was off a bye and had an extra week to prepare. Caught Saints on MNF with the Saints playing (and defeating SF in week 11, and then playing a tough divisional game against ATL, who by that time was playing for and with a shit load of pride, which showed in the Saints 17-13 win.
• Saints had Carolina the next week, and would play then in 2 out of the next 3 weeks in games that would determine the division winner. In short, the situation overwhelming favored Seattle. The real Saints would show up the following week when they throttled Carolina 31-13.
• Part of the game plan that was written about in the papers and showed up when I re-watched the game last night, was the play of C.J. Wright on Jimmy Graham. After the game, Wright talked about how he was prepped all week to play Graham one-on-one as the Hawks felt he had the physical tools to handle Jimmy. The tape shows that he did just that. Turn the page to Jan 11, and Wright is out 4-6 weeks, so that plan will not be available this time around.
• While Seattle did have an extra week, they were not able to prepare solely for the Saints. Their opponent would be determined by the outcome of the WC round games.
• If you believe that Sean Payton and Rex Ryan are good coaches (as I do), then you will share in my sentiment that they will have a better game plan this time around. I think we saw evidence of solid game planning with 185 yards the usually listless Saints rushing game piled up last week. If you watched the game, the Saints one their share of 1 on 1 battles, BUT they also did an excellent job of setting up the run, and winning the personnel battle.

Good Luck.

:cheers:

Agree with you SMH. I watched the game again last night and a couple things registered.

Seattle got on top early with a flukish play when Brees' arm was hit from behind and led to an INT TD by a lineman/backer. Another TD was a carom off one Hawks player to another (although Sea was threatening). Things snowballed on the Saints a little, which had the crowd in it from the get-go.

Russell Wilson played great, so much so they were talking him up as MVP over Manning after that game. His three-game rating at that point was off the charts. His ensuing three games were 80, 86, 49, or something very close to those numbers. Only in the finale against St. Louis did he get around 100 (102). For a month, he's not been close to the same QB the Saints saw.

Heard the Saints have hi-tech ear plugs (suggested by Favre when Payton called to ask him about dealing with noise). They had them for the first game and really liked them but don't know if they were a factor due to snowball effect of Seattle momentum. Might be helpful today if Seahawks don't get off to such a great start.

Hope Pierre Thomas goes but that remains very iffy.

Weather will be nicer than originally forecasted, albeit windy and wet. Seen so many different forecasts lately not sure what to expect. Sets up nicely for Lynch, which should keep things conservative and close; would rather have Brees as QB in those conditions than Wilson.

Saints got a bugaboo their shoulders with outdoor road win last week.R

Richard Sherman will take away anyone he wants to (Colston). Period. Brees has other weapons he's not afraid to call on. Love the point you raised about Graham.

Gonna be with you on this one.

GL.

 

[T-Squared]

Update: Pouring in Seattle, 47 degrees, wind S 31 mph ... Thomas inactive

 

[smh212]

Saints showed enough in the second half to get the cover. Not all that impressed with either club, and even though they won, SEA will have a small downward adjust in my PR.

Nice hit T-squared, and good info on the game period. Hope to see more solid contributions from you going forward. The earplugs was a cool angle.

Aplous......:shake:

NBAfan - just like in hoops, at the end of the day your betting a number not a team. If the 10 didn't pop, I would not have played. Thought the Saints should some growth on the road this postseason.

 

[smh212]

Adding:

COLTS +145 (.75) - Second half.

Colts have been in this situation so many times already. At this point, I think it's obvious you can put in 8 in the box and dare NE to throw. Tom has completed passes to a whopping 3 WR's. They are winning the turnover battle, yet, they can't feel good. Indy? Ride or die.

 

[smh212]

Closing my open teaser:

2T NE -1 and Den -2.5 (1.5)

Was on the fence this morning, but the drop to 8.5, allowed a FG to win the game w/ Denver. More thoughts later on this one. As for the 1 o'clock, I think the price is right.

 

[TheHbomb]

Good luck today bud.

 

[smh212]

Sunday - Closer Look

Sf/Car
My line: Car -1 42
My play: PASS

A lot has changed since these teams last met up in on Nov 10th. At that time, Kapernick was in a funk, as was the entire offense. It appeared that the team had lost it's identity. SF would lose next week at NO by 3, but the changes could already been seen. Since that game, the Niners haven't lost a game. Consider that they lost the Carolina game and Saints game by combined 4 points, and you have a team that's 4 points away from 12 straight wins. Using straight power ratings, I get a line of Carolina -3.5. However, when I used my formulas that accounts for yards/play, yards/point, points/yd, pts/play, etc, I get the following outcomes:

Season: SF 21 Car 20
Home/Away: SF 21 Car 21
L5: SF 23 Car 20

With numbers like these, and no other angle to play, this game is a pass for me.

Working out the Denver game as of this writing, but I will state right now that too much love is being given to SD in my opinion.....but more on that later.