Sunday 1 PMs/Main Slate
TEN@DET
Titans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Rudolph? has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Pollard has a meh rush potential.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Montgomery/Gibbs have a good rush potential.
Titans TTR is 21st (meh).
Lions TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 16th (last). O/U Rank is T-6th.
- I know the matchup is tough/pace stinks, and he is the most expensive he has been all year, so I don't know how much I'll even have of him, but Pollard is coming off a season high 89% snap count, and has hit atleast 20 opps in 5 of 6, averaging 4+ targets/g, 6 with rudolph.... if you think TEN can keep it close/have success at all, Pollard will get his. In Rudolphs first full start of the year, he was forced to 40 pass attempts, and this script projects the same way --- Ridley had a really nice combo of a 23.5% target share, and 14.5 aDOT, he is 5.2K that is absolutely absurb, and the reason why I probably won't have pollard (as I will have a good chunk of ridley). While he wasn't being targetted much, Hopkins last 2 games he played 60%+ of snaps, that should help rise Boyd/Ikhines usage, and while boyd is 3.9K, and Ikhine is floor price, I think I can find room just to pay for Ridley, reserve them for absolute punt plays if needed.
We can not play Montgomery, 2 weeks ago was a blowout, last week was a rush script lead/neutral script, and in both games he didn't even get to 40% of snaps. While he did have 4 targets last week, he has 3 games with just 1 target, and without TDs, he can easily single digit you, pass. The matchup is kind of tough, and Gibbs is very expensive now, I think he has big play potential, and the script favors them, not sure how much I go here though outside of game stacks. With Jame-O leaving, we have all ships rising in targets. ASB is an obvious choice but being priced as the WR2 on the entire slate, in a game where blowout is possible, plus a bad pace, I don't want to spend that much. I'm not sure if they call up A-Rob, but Raymond/Patrick should be the direct gainers of snaps. In Raymonds last 2 games he's played the lower amount of snaps, but has had a 19.5% target share, with a good aDOT of 11.9, doesn't mean I don't like Patrick and his 15.4 aDOT either, but just showing that a big increase in snap count could propel one of these guys as they are cheap punt plays. And in comes last but not least, LaPorta.... he HAS to be the #2 passing option now right? (maybe it is gibbs lol), He played a season high 95% of snaps last week ---- that still unfortunately led to just 2 targets... he is SO cheap compared to practically ever in his career (outside of the first week(s))... I feel like its so obvious to play him value wise, but if a shitload of people go here, I may avoid it, idk yet.
NYJ@NEP
Jets have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Pats have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rodgers has a good pass potential.
Maye has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential.
Jets TTR is T-10th (good).
Pats TTR is T-22nd (meh).
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is 11th (meh).
- Could you make an argument for B. Allen in big tourenys ... I guess... but I wouldnt do it, his snaps have continued to drop, and even in the jets last blowout win, vs this team, he had 14 opps (3 targets), and finished with just 8.3 points... pass. Lets get to the real show.. B. Hall, It was the 2nd straight week, 3rd time all year, he has had over 80% of the snaps, in all 3 of those games, he's had at least 21 opps, while averaging 7.25 targets/g in them... he is absolutely a player that should be on your list. Adams immediately came in and practically played every down, He and wilson both had a 23% target share, but Wilson doubled Adams aDOT of 5, with 10.8, and he's priced cheaper, don't know if I can justify Adams just yet. Lazard/Williams/Conklin off my list.
I want to say Stevenson was scripted out last week, but it was within 2 possessions throughout, and the Pats have at the least been in the similar situation, if not worse, most of the year. So seeing a 50% snap count, 10 opps scares me at 6K, going to pass. Henry is playing about 80% of snaps, and in his 2 games with Maye, has seen a 21% target share/9.35 aDOT --- not many TEs come close to that, and at 3.8K I see potential! The Pats play like 5 WRs, Douglas leads the team in target share with Maye, but he's seen his snaps reduce, while Boutte has lead the team in snaps in both weeks (83%), and has a big aDOT of 20.8, I think he is a good punt/salary saver option in tourneys.
ARI@MIA
Cards have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Kyler has a good pressure rate situation, and good pass potential.
Tua? has a good pressure rate situation. Achane/Mostert have a meh rush potential.
Cards TTR is T-16th.
Dolphins TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is 5th. O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Kyler is the cheapest he's been since wk1, and there is a chance with Tua back that we can see the pace pushed faster. he provides a good rushing floor, and I'm sure there is a game of 2+ TDs coming again, as he has only done that once this year --- I'll get to Tua, and I want to play him, but that may keep people off Kyler. I have no doubt Conner can be a smash play, he is coming off a season high in snaps (84%), which included 23 opps (4 targets), and 152 total yards vs a really tough defense. My issue is I like Kyler, and I think most people gravitate to conner here and I don't want to chase the ownership. I'll reserve him to big game stacks only. ARI running more 2 WR sets than usual, and it elimiantes dortch for me, I know he scored last week, but he played just 30% of snaps. Mi. Wilson is interesting as a punt but I'll use it for big game stacks only. Harrison is the cheapest he's been all year, has a 25% target share, with a good 13.5 aDOT, he burned me last week, but the perceived tough matchup, and most not wanting to go back to the well has me very interested. McBride will always grade out well, a 22% target share, and a decent TE aDOT of 7+ is hard to find in this years NFL, while I don't hate it, I probably pay down to at least the name of Henry (will see if there are others too).
I obviously want to play Tua, he is cheap, in one of the best matchups on the slate, and his stacking partners are not only concentrated, like we know to love, but they are so cheap because of what occurred with this team for the last handful of weeks. This really comes down to ownership/leverage imo. Don't really want the backfield as it's a 2 headed snake for now. Tua + Hill/Waddle is who I want, just don't know how much.
ATL@TBB
Falcons have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bucs have a good P/RB matchup.
Cousins has a meh pressure rate situation. Bi. Robinson/Allgeier have a great rush potential.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. White? has a great rush potential.
Falcons TTR is T-10th (good).
Bucs TTR is 18th.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is T-6th.
- Bijan is starting to look nice again, he is coming off a big 26 opp (5 target) game that shows a floor/ceiling combo. The matchup is also great on paper. If you think with the injuries to TBB that this will be a blowout, and mass entering into a tourney, feel free to add allgeier your list a 5.1K. Metric wise, there is not much that separates London and Mooney, 27/23% target share, and 10.2/10.5 aDOT, but Londons RZ targets are one of the best in all the NFL, so I think both are interchangeable, but if you can afford london and want this game, he is a fine option, otherwise go down to mooney. RayRay is fine, he plays a lot, but he is maybe the 4th/5th option on this team. I like Pitts price, and 2 of his last 3 games he has seen an upside in his target share, but on the season it sits at 16%, I don't hate it or love it, so however you feel on him.
The Bucs are a glaring source of value, so it is all about leverage/ownership here. As there WR1/2 are in the 3K range --- I'd probably go for the least owned in tourneys, which to me is Palmer. Otton was already mister play every down, and saw his target share hit 22.2% last week, and that was with Evans/Godwin soaking up 27% of the targets... he had a really good aDOT of 9.8... I like Otton a lot, I think a lot of people will, I'll obviously have shares, but this is a scenario where same price pivot to someone like Henry can really make a lineup shine if either Otton fails, or Henry goes off. White looked good, hitting 2 TDS on 16 opps (6 targets), problem is, is that opp. count now a ceiling to him? If he falls down to the 12 to 15 range, not sure I want to waste a spot on him when there is value elsewhere to get a more sure thing at this position.
IND@HOU
Colts have a meh P/RB matchup.
Texans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Richardson has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential. Taylor? has a bad rush potential.
Mixon has a meh rush potential.
Colts TTR is 20th.
Texans TTR is 4th (great).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 5th (good).
- This game has a good pace/OU, and richardson is a dog, I actually really like him for tourneys, they designed more runs for him, which led to 14 carries, and he is priced in the 5K range. week 1 vs this team he finished with 27 points, I can easily see him 4x'ing this salary. Taylor is back, but he's to expensive for me, and I just noted how they are giving richardson more runs, pass. Weeks 3 and 7 were the only weeks with Richardson +Downs/Pittman/Pierce and Downs have a 2.5 aDOT compared to Pierces 17.5 aDOT, and a 1 target discrepancy between the 2, if going here, give me the cheaper Pierce, plus pittman is $500 more and he has a good 13.1 aDOT, and a bigger 25% target share. I will have some Richardson + Pittman and/or Pierce lineups.
Mixon saw his snaps rise from last weeks return from injury, hitting 66%, and his total opps of 28 (3 targets), continues to look like the norm (see week 1), He's expensive, but he should remain on your list. Digg's price doesnt sit to wlel with me, in the 3 games with Collins he does has a 26% target share/9.8 aDOT, but the guys directly above his price have better metrics, or you can find value below him (Hill?!). Dell seems to expensive too, 20% target share/8 aDOT, you can have Schultz 19%/8.5 aDOT for 2K+ cheaper, at 4.1K he is another pivot option off the popular Laporta/Ottons.
BAL@CLV
Ravens have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Browns have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Lamar has a great pass potential.
Winston? has a bad pressure rate situation (grain of salt). Chubb has a bad rush potential.
Ravens TTR is 3rd (great).
Browns TTR is 24th (bad).
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is T-9th.
- Lamar can always be played in all formats and I won't talk you off --- his last 3 games have been bookended with 4+ TD performances, and even in the middle game he had 1 TD and still almost 3x'd this salary because of his rushing upside too. Henry is on a roll, but I still don't trust him at 8K when he has no PPR upside (1.3~ targets/g)... he scores in every game, and he has homerun hitting potential, so I get it, but I think for tourneys I'll keep trying to fade, he has arguably failed at this price 3 out of 7 games, so its not outlandish. Flowers is kind of price-y and if this game goes to script, I can see them taking it easy on his ankle injury. Bateman has a nice 14.8 aDOT, with an ok target share of 16%, but he comes cheap, and I think he can at least be considered as a one-off.. I don't want to chase recent performance, and you dont know which TE will get the action, but I won't fault you from going here, these TEs have a combined 14 RZ targets in 7 games, so one can definitely pay off.
In the first game without Cooper, Tillman had a great 25% target share/10.6 aDOT --- he's almost floor price still. Now Winston only had 1 drive, but in that drive he attempt 11 pass attempts, 4 to Jeudy, 3 to Njoku (2 in RZ), 2 to Tillman (plus a successful 2 pt converstion) 1 Moore. Jeudy is cheap enough to play too, I think these guys are a good source of value as well. Njoku is the only one that's a touch expensive for the position he plays, and there are value options I prefer, but he has a path to a 25%+ target share, in a script that projects to have a high pass volume, so I think he is definitely playable too. Rooting for Winston! Chubb is to expensive, I know they eased him in last week, as he only had a 36% snap count, I know those numbers are going to go up, but what will he get to this week? I am not paying over 6K to be burned.
GBP@JAC
Packers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jags have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Love has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Lawrence has a meh pressure rate situation. Bigsby? has a good rush potential.
Packers TTR is 2nd (great).
Jags TTR is T-12th (good).
Pace of play is T-11th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
- I don't think people realize this, but Wicks continues to be the best metric player on this packer offense, the problem is he plays the least when all 4 are healthy, which they currently are. While I think any given week, one of these guys can outperform the other, we only have 2 weeks where the big 4 + love played together, and Doubs leads the way with a 26% target share/11 aDOT (all 4 WRs have aDOTs over 11....) I lean him the most as my one-off, maybe Wicks... however if mass entering, don't be afraid to mass game stack this game. Jacobs is averaging 18.4 opps (3.6 targets/g) with Love, those are fine numbers, he is 6K price range, and it's a good way to be different/gain leverage if the passing attack fails but the TT hits.
There is so much value on this slate, and there is so much more to review, plus given the size of the slate, you are going to get a ton of unique lineups fighting for the top spot imo.
Continuing off that, Lawrence is pretty cheap, in losing games (which this script projects), he averagins well over 30 pass attempts, and his big 3 of WRs all average aDOTS over 12+ (Davis is at 11.97...), Lawrence has a big game in him at some point soon. The snap counts/target share/aDOTs are not much different between all of them, it makes me want to fade Br. Thomas the most, as he is the priciest option. It's important to note that in weeks 1/6 and 7, Engrams only 3 games, he has a 25.5% target share, with an ok aDOT of 5.2, he is an interesting pivot in tourneys if Njoku is popular, as they're similarly priced but he hasn't had a RZ target yet, which Njoku blew out the water in just 1 drive with Winston. I'll also note Davis leads these WRS in redzone targets (9 to 5 and 5), and he's the cheapest of the bunch. I don't want this backfield at all if Etienne is in, if he's out, Bigsby does intrigue me with his 27 opps last week, but obviosuly don't like his 1 target ceiling he has shown so far...
PHI@CIN
Eagles have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bengals have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Hurts has a great pressure rate situation. Barkley has a good rush potential.
Burrow has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential.
Eagles TTR is 15th.
Bengals TTR is 9th (good).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is T-2nd (good).
- Barkley has a 20+ touch/3 target floor on an offense that is aggressive, there is a ton of value spots on this slate, so paying up here could make sense. If Brown played an entire season with these metrics, he will be the WR1 overall in fantasy, in his 3 games he has a massive 36% target share, with a huge 13.8 aDOT, fire him up if you can, oh and Goedert is out again.... concentration at its finest! passing on Smith and the rest.
These RBs are kind of in a timeshare I don't want to be a part of, pass. If Higgins is out, Iosivas/Iwrin become interesting floor/punt plays, but if he's in, in the 5 weeks they've played together, he has had more RZ targets, more targets overall, and their aDOTs are essentially identical, yet he is 2K cheaper than Chase... the late week injury pop up concerns me, but it is how I'd lean.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
NOS@LAC
Saints have a meh P/RB matchup.
Chargers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Rattler? has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Kamara has a meh rush potential.
Saints TTR is 25th (bad).
Chargers TTR is T-12th (good).
Pace of play is 15th (bad/slowest of main slate). O/U Rank is 13th (bad/last).
- Is Rattler going to make it through an entire game? He's cheap, but that kind of concerns me. W/o Carr the last 2 weeks (and even with) Kamara has seen 7.5 targets/g (never fewer than 7), that makes him startable on PPR sites regardless, just don't know how much of him I'll actually have as I like other plays more, and the team dynamic scares me a little. I wish his price came down a little, but one positive to this QB issue, is that he'll have Olave for the first time, not sure I want to pay his Carr price in this spot, but I'd assume his volume will be high. I don't think tipton/means makes sense in the 4K price range, where there are much better punt plays/scenarios in the 3K range...
I said last week before the LAC/ARI game that Herbert looked as healthy as ever out of the bye and his pass attempts wk6 should be around the norm than his first 4 weeks, and he surpassed that even, hitting 39 last week. While he had 0 TDs, he had 350~ pass yards, and is only 5.4K, that stat line again still 3x's this salary. There is still no QJ/Davis, and McConkey is now Q, if Chark comes off IR, I'll have interest in him, but Fehoko, he hit over 90% of snaps, had a big 15.8 aDOT, with a 15% target share. I want to fade Dissly, but they didn't move his price really, so at 3K he makes some sense, I don't care for his 4.4 aDOT, but I do want to add Hurst may be returning from his hiatus which could damper some of his expected target share (and with Chark maybe being activated too), so not sure I'll have him. Look what Javonte Williams + DEN D did to this offense, why can't Dobbins + LAC D do the same? He's averaging 70% of snaps without edwards, but he has only hit over 18 opps just once, and I do think this team is slowly leaning towards more of a pass first offense, which is strange to say for harbaugh, right?
BUF@SEA
Bills have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Seahawks have a good P/RB matchup.
Cook has a great rush potential.
Geno has a bad pressure rate situation. Walker has a good rush potential.
Bills TTR is T-7th (Good).
Seahawks TTR is T-16th.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is T-2nd (Good).
- Cooks snap count kind of concerns me when he is priced at 7K, the matchup does obviously look good, but he's priced with Bijan/Hall/Gibbs/etc, yet hasn't hit even 60% of snaps since week 1, i'll pass for now. Cooper played just 35% of snaps, and finished with 15.5% target share/11.4 aDOT, you have to assume both the snaps/targets rise as he assimilates to the offense. I'll note that coleman had a good 13.8 aDOT, with a 22% target share, but all 3 other WRs played the same amount, and I am waiting to see how it shakes out with Cooper on the field more. Kincaid had an impressive 12.8 aDOT, and a good 19% target share, yet again another TE I like that I hope goes overlooked.
Walker had 16 opps (2 targets) last week in a blowout win where he didn't even hit 50% of snaps (he's been averaging just under 70% usually), he has such a nice PPR floor too, I like his floor/ceiling potential a lot this week. With Metcalf doubtfrul, we have a 23%~ target share vacancy opening up. This boosts the floors of JSN/Lockett/Fant, I like Locketts aDOT the most, he also leads the team in RZ targets (marginally, but still), if I go here, i'll have him the most.
CHI@WAS
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Commanders have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Williams has a great pressure rate situation.
Daniels? has a good pressure rate situation. Br. Robinson~ has a good rush potential.
Bears TTR is T-12th (good).
Commanders TTR is 19th.
Pace of play is T-11th (meh). O/U Rank is 8th.
- Williams has just feasted on b2b opponents, and we expect WAS to stop them? I hope Daniels is in to help push the pace, otherwise I'll temper some expectations, but I do like him. Moore seems cheap with a 25%/10.5 aDOT last 3 games, he also almost doubles everyone else in RZ targets (9). I think for game stacks, you can make a case for either of Odunze/Allen, whoever you can fit, sorry Kmet there is to much other TEs I like more. If Daniels is out, I have some interest in Swift + CHI D, he has been very consistent of late, and has a ppr floor while being on the cheaper side of 6K.
If Mariota is in, I'll temper expectations, as 3 different pass catchers capped out at 5 targets in last weeks win (although it was a blowout too), but still I am not paying McLaurins Daniels price if that makes sensse. If Daniels is in, fire him up, he has a big 14 aDOT/26% target share, and I do think they will be playing from a neutral to positive pass script. Robinson to expensive for a timeshare, Ekeler is on the lower half of usage for his price, pass. I like TEs more than Ertz, pass.
CAR@DEN
Panthers have a bad P/RB matchup.
Broncos have a great P/RB matchup.
Dalton? has a bad pass potential. Hubbard~ has a meh rush potential.
Nix has a great pressure rate situation. Jav. Williams has a great rush potential.
Panthers TTR is T-22nd (meh).
Broncos TTR is T-4th (great).
Pace of play is 6th. O/U Rank is T-9th.
- Oh my god, they're throwing bryce young back in vs this D.... if he lights it up I'll be blown away. I guess Mingo/Leggette are cheap, there's no Johnson/Thielen, which made up 34.5% of Youngs throws in weeks 1/2... someone has to draw targets, and these guys are cheap... so I understand the value in them. Hubbard is going to be asked to do a lot, and he is quietly coming off b2b 82%+ snap count games so while not flashy, volume wise I can see him hitting a ceiling we like, 20+ carries 5+ targets doesn't seem farfetched.
Jav. Williams + DEN D will be very popular, and while I like jav a lot, and he has been on an upswing, he still hasn't hit 20 opps this season, and I may take an ownership leverage stance here. I do think Nix is viable, he has rushing floor, and ceiling upside in this matchup where CAR just lets points happen. Sutton getting 0 targets last week worried me, but he still has a decent 22% target share, and a big 13.5 aDOT, and the matchup doesn't get easier... if you want to take a punt/salary saver option with the WR2/3's here, I get it, but there are other punts that I feel more confident in.
KCC@LVR
Chiefs have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a meh P/RB matchup.
Mahomes has a good pass potential.
Minshew? has a bad pass potential. Mattison~ has a bad rush potential.
Chiefs TTR is 6th (good).
Raiders TTR is 26th (bad/last).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is 12th (meh).
- Hunt is averaging 26 opps. in his 2 full games, while 1.5 targets/g doesn't get me up, he has a favorable script, so I can see success, not sure how much I'll have. Last week had no rice or juju, and Worthy had a sick 32% target share/16.75 aDOT, if hopkins didn't arrive I'd say fire him up... but if Hopkins is going to be used right away, he is priced WAY to low at 4.9K, but again, if word comes out he will be limited, Worthy may be a sneaky low owned option. I can't play Kelce at 6K with guys that have better metrics than him priced lower --- I will say without Rice he has seen his target share finally rise, but maybe Hopkins brings it back to early season, which we did not like.
Minshew has played most of the snaps in weeks 5 and 7, and in those games Bowers had an incredible 37% target share, that's so high that we can live with a 5.65 aDOT, which is still ok for a TE. I don't really want to be involved with any other pass catchers. Mattison has seen his snaps rise now in 4 straight games, hitting a season high 70% last week, he has had a floor of 3 targets, and recently a high of 23 carries --- if LVR can somehow keep this close/surprise people with a semi competitive game, he can be a sneaky contrarian tourney option that nobody will be playing.
maybe just maybe get him more than a yard down the field before throwing it Mike! Pissed I didn’t go w a kittle + cd, I did but had Mason in it and had to watch his backup crush it all night! Oh well, the alt numbers were really good to me yesterday, gonna lose some. Hell Ferguson didn’t even hit his reg number with those 5 catches! Lol.
