Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
CLV@PHI
Browns have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Eagles have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Watson has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential.
Hurts has a meh pass potential.
Browns TTR is 18th (Bad).
Eagles TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 6th (meh).
- I know I keep beating this horse to a pulp and its semi failing, but Watson at 5.1K has to remain as a tourney conversation, in weeks 2 through 4 without njoku at all, Cooper/Jeudy combined for over 50% target share, both having aDOTs over 10 too --- they all stand out as too cheap. Ford is a fine play and technically has a good matchup, there's a chance there really is nobody else behind him, and has an ok ppr floor.
Barkley is kind of CMC-esque in the sense that he has big time TD equity, and 3 straight games with at least 4 targets. PHI are faves playing in a game with a good pace, won't talk anybody off of him. Brown/Smith/Goedert have only played together week 1. Goedert comes off my list, as he isn't look at as much, and had a terrible aDOT (which coincides with last year), price he is priced up from his performances without the big 2. I lean brown over smith if you can afford it/want to play him, not sure if I'll have either just yet depending on the other plays.
WAS@BAL
Commanders have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Ravens have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Daniels has a great pass potential.
Lamar has a great pressure rate situation, and great pass potential. Henry has a great rush potential.
Commanders TTR is 9th.
Ravens TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is 12th (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (great).
- We have an environment of 2 QBs that can extend drives with their legs, and the 2nd highest O/U, the discussion here really is exposure, and if you want to get leverage/be different and hope this game fails. Which the 12th rated pace of play could help with that.
Br. Robinson can't be trusted if he plays, if he's out Ekeler is interesting in the 5K range, and should see 15+ touches easy. Ertz had a 30% target share last week, with a good aDOT of 8.75, he is in the 3K range, I think he should at least be considered in this environment. McLaurin is really the only other receiver I want, on the season he has a 27% target share/14.8 aDOT, those metrics grade him out to be 2nd best, he he has ceiling potential.
I am not chasing/playing Henry at 8K... I know he can slate break, but in 3 of 5 games he has just 1 target, averaging 1.6/g, despite scoring in every game, he has just greater than 2x'ed this salary twice --- think about that. Bateman is just soooo much cheaper than flowers, with a big aDOT of 13.4... I think Flowers is a fine play, but I see myself paying down more often than not. Idk what to do at TE, Andrews seems so cheap (and has a 10+ aDOT), but they play 3 TEs, and Likely last week had his highest snap count of the season (71%), I guess for tourneys, you can consider 1, but not sure I can do it.
HOU@NEP
Texans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Pats have a good P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a good pass potential. Mixon? has a meh rush potential.
Maye? has a meh pressure rate situation (take these with a grain of salt), and a bad pass potential.
Texans TTR is T-7th.
Pats TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Pace of play is T-5th (meh). O/U rank is 8th (bad).
- Notes
TBB@NOS
Bucs have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Haener? has a bad pressure rate situation, but good pass potential. Kamara has a great rush potential.
Bucs TTR is T-7th
Saints TTR is 16th (meh).
Pace of play is 13th (bad). O/U Rank is 7th (meh).
- Notes
IND@TEN
Colts have a good P/RB matchup.
Titans have a good P matchup, and meh RB matchup.
Flacco? has a great pressure rate situation. Taylor? has a good rush potential.
Levis has a meh pressure rate situation.
Colts TTR is 10th.
Titans TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is T-5th (meh). O/U Rank is 5th.
- Notes
ARI@GBP
Cards have a good P/RB matchup.
Packers have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Murray has a good pressure rate situation, and good pass potential.
Love has a great pressure rate situation and a great pass potential.
Cards TTR is 11th.
Packers TTR is 4th (Great).
Pace of play is T-7th (meh). O/U Rank is 3rd (good).
- Notes
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
PIT@LVR
Steelers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Raiders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Fields has a good pass potential. Najee has a meh run potential.
AOC has a bad pressure rate situation (grain of salt these), and bad pass potential. Mattison? has a bad rush potential.
Steelers TTR is 14th (meh).
Raiders TTR is T-17th (bad).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Notes
LAC@DEN
Chargers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a meh P/RB matchup.
Herbert has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Dobbins has a bad rush potential.
Nix has a good pressure rate situation, but a bad pass potential. Jav. Williams has a bad rush potential.
Chargers TTR is 15th (meh).
Broncos TTR is 19th (bad).
Pace of play is 14th (last/bad). O/U Rank is 10th (last/bad).
- Notes
ATL@CAR
Falcons have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Panthers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Cousins has a great pass potential. Bi. Robinson has a good rush potential.
Dalton has a great pressure rate situation. Hubbard? has a good rush potential.
Falcons TTR is 3rd (great).
Panthers TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 1st (great). O/U Rank is 4th (good).
- Notes
DET@DAL
Lions have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a bad P/RB matchup.
Goff has a good pressure rate situation. Gibbs/Montgom have great rush potentials.
Dak has a bad pressure rate situation. Dowdle? has a bad rush potential.
Lions TTR is 2nd (great).
Cowboys TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is 1st (Great).
- Notes
