Edit: Just a comment, but the difference between the highest and lowest O/U is just 5 points, probably the lowest gap in a main slate all year. I'd look more at TTR if valuing it.
Main Slate/Sunday 1 PMs
NEP/BUF
Pats have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Bills have a bad P/RB matchup.
Stevenson has a bad ALY push.
Pats TTR is T20th.
Bills TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is 3rd overall/MS. OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - NEP - On D, CB Ja. Jones (54%) out for 4th week, 3 Q CBs, Ma. Jones (47%)/Jo. Jones (83%)/Mills (75%). On O, WRs Parker/Meyers are Q, TE Smith is Q.
- BUF - On D, S Hamlin (86%) is out, CB Johnson (92%) is Q. May be returning CB Benford however.
- On paper, we have tough DVOA matchups, but this is 3rd in pace, and 1 of the 3 O/U's barely over 42. Welp, Da. Harris seems to be back, they were in a 57/48% split last week (57 to stevenson), in a pretty neutral game. Both had just 12 opportunities (4 to 3 targets, stevenson/harris), the way vegas projects the game to play out, I guess slight nod to stevenson, but even if 15 opportunities is his cap, I can't trust it, and his kind of lost his high PPR floor from the middle of the year. On the otherhand, we have a projected passing script for the Pats. While we don't know for sure if Parker/Meyers are playing, Thornton has now played roughly 90% of snaps for 4 weeks straight. I pointed this out last week, and he was 3K, and would have been a sexy pivot off dortch, to bad I did it in just 1 lineup, as I had more Henry (who still did good, but not the same), I'll go right back here, as he's just 3.3K, and should still see the volume he saw last week (7 targets). If Joonu is still out, I still think Henry is a fine option, he had 6 targets with a solid aDOT/r of 8, finishing 5-52.
Allen is the top priced QB, with the 4th highest TTR, the concern is the bigger spread, but he has a solid rushing floor, can vulture TDs, and that's to go along with good passing numbers. I'll love him more if more of these CBs are out for the pats, otherwise, I'll be normal weight. I think Gab Davis is still my fave WR to own here, he's cheap, we know he has slate breaking upside, he plays the most snaps at the position for this team, and he's been relatively quiet. I don't know if you want to go diggs though... the other WRs snap share is to sporadic, I don't trust it on a 13 game slate. Knox has been super solid as of late, averaging almost 7 targets/g his last 3, with a nice aDOT/r of 9, he'll remain in my pool.
NYJ/MIA
Jets have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dolphins have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Knight? has the worst ALY push of the MS.
Jets TTR is 13th.
Dolphins TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is 4th overall/MS. OURank is 12th.
- Injuries - NYJ - On D, S Joyner (94%) is out, 1 notable Q in S Whitehead (99%). On OL, Ts Brown/Fant, G Herbig are all Q.
- MIA - On D, 3 notable Qs in S Rowe (60%)/LB Chubb (68%)/CB Howard (95%). On O, WRs Wilson/Waddle are Q, QB Teddy is Q (Tua is D). On OL T Armstead is Q (best rated, missed last week)
- I was about to come and say to click a big ole X on this backfield for the Jets, As it's now a 3 RBBC. Having said that, the only option I'd consider is Ty. Johnson, he's min priced for a RB, and IF you project the Dolphins to play with a lead throughout, he may maintain that 50% snap share he saw last week, that equaled a 13 opportunity day (5 targets). What I really want here is Wilson, in 4 games with White, he's averaged just over 10 targets/g, with aDOT/r over 10 as well, and almost 2 RZ targets/g, those are alpha numbers and he doesn't break your bank. I think Davis could be a fine cheap punt/pivot, and I'd rather him over Moore his aDOT/r is slightly better in the 4 games with White, but only with a 5 target/g average. EDIT - Flacco is now starting, I came in here to kind of be upset with the decision, but looking back at his weeks 1 through 3, he attempted AN AVERAGE of 52~ passes, Wilson has 11 target/g average, corey davis had a massive 15 aDOT/r, granted, the Jets had a nuetral to negative game script throughout, which can certainly happen again (and vegas thinks so) but wanted to make note of it... I may have more interest here lmao.
Weirdly enough, Thompson last almost full game was vs the Jets in week 5, where Hill led the team with 7 targets, and overall they didn't take any deep shots. I don't think I can pay for Hill in a tough matchup, where he will need to take a short pass to the house (which he is fully capable of, but I don't want to back it), while this scenario is kind of like Adams last week, in that his ownership will be low, and he's an alpha, I don't expect the same volume combo'd with the aDOT/r that Adams had. IF Waddle is out, I guess Sherfield becomes an intriguing WR2 punt option. Pass at TE. RB is interesting. Last week they combined for 15 total targets (8 for wilson/7 for mostert), Mostert got 5 in Thompsons 2 of 3 total drives, but you can also argue its because they were playing from behind (the last drive by 2+ possessions), It looks like Wilson is the neutral/positive game script back to own if you think MIA keeps it close/with a lead, he did play 65% of snaps to Mosterts 42% last week.... a 65% back in the 5K range, with PPR safety seems nice, just know he definitely has a floor to him, and who knows if they switch to a hot hand approach.
MIN/CHI
Vikings have a great P/RB matchup.
Bears have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Cousins has a good ASR matchup,
Peterman has a bad ASR matchup.
Vikes TTR is 3rd.
Bears TTR is 19th.
Pace of play is T-6th overall/MS. OURank is T-1st.
- Injuries - MIN - On OL, T O'Neill (best rated) is out, G Schlottman (who replaced bradbury 4 weeks ago) is out, C Bradbury is doubtful (they're hopefully for a playoff return), they're slowly becoming the Rams from a handful of weeks back, but not there just yet.
- CHI - On D, CB Vildor (79%)/S Jackson (94%) are still out, CB Johnson (97%)/LB Sanborn (76%) are out for 3rd week, now CB Blackwell (44%) is out. On OL, G Schofield is out, T Jenkins is out (again, 2nd best rated). On O, no QB Fields.
- I am so torn on this game, is that weird? We have the best OURank, Ok pace, and phenomenal DVOA matchups. My problem, is that everyone will be going here, and the Vikes are without more OLineman, they're probably stuck at the 3 seed regardless, so I can see why they can fail. However, Jefferson needs to have a monster 194 yard game to hit the receiving record, and despite the OL issues, he's up against a secondary that is in SHAMBLES. He will make or break the lineup, I know it, and I hate that. I can't take cook at his price, knowing the OL issues, and that Mattison can easily spell him and take over (don't mind him in a lineup if mass entering). If something happens and Jefferson is not close by half, or there's a big lead in either direction, Osborn would be the guy I'd want most of, he could succeed in a normal game, but def would if top starters sit. Just something to be mindful of. I can't say not to take hockenson, as he's been on a 4 game tear, averaging over 11 targets/g, but again no there's risk involed, and we do have him sandwiched between Kittle/Andrews in price.
Part of me thinks to take MIN D vs Peterman (and maybe pair with Mattison), Part of me thinks to take Peterman vs this pass funnel defense with one of these cheap ass WRs that will see more volume with him than Fields. Part of me thinks to take Montgomery, as the matchup isn't bad as he has PPR safety to him, the matchup isn't that bad, he should see more volume with no fields running, as well as no more vulturing of him too. Kmet is to expensive for me. Pringle/St.Brown were the snap leaders last week that I'd target if I go here, that was with Claypool/Harry/Pettis all playing too. I'll have to circle back to this sunday.
BAL/CIN
Ravens have a good P/RB matchup.
Bengals have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Ravens TTR is 23rd.
Bengals TTR is 5th.
Pace of play is 15th overall, 12th in MS. OURank is 4th.
- Injuries - BAL - On D, 2 notable Q's, CB Peters (92%)/DT Campbell (63%). On O, WR Jackson is Q, but hasn't practiced. QBs Lamar/Huntley are Q, lamar hasn't practiced. On OL, T Moses is Q.
- CIN - On D, notable Q is CB Apple (94%). On OL, T Collins (best rated) is out.
- Huntley is most likely the starter, and they haven't asked him to do much in his 5 starts. He's failed to reach over 13 FPs in 4 of his 5 games (only doing so in his first), while he's cheap, it's hard to trust him, especially with flacco 100$ cheaper. I thought with no duvernay the last 2 weeks we'd see more out of these WRs in terms of target share, but really it's been Andrews who's been the monster. Last week he played his highest snaps since his week 8 injury (maybe he's fully healthy)? and he finished with 9 targets (massive 45% target share), with a good aDOT/r of 7.4, BAL is running 2/3 TE sets, and he has a lot of my attention. BAL is a 7 point dog, in a 3 RBBC, Dobbins finally got over 43% of snaps since its been 3 headed, hitting just 50% last week, in a closely contested game that they lead until the end, that's his maximum, and he gets 0 target share, we can't play that on DK, especially at 5.7K., pass all around.
I know this secondary could get exploited, but I feel like I'm overpaying for guys that could have floors we don't like, as the pace is terrible, they're 7 pt faves, if I go here, I probably prefer Higgins the most. I'll have a minor interest in Mixon, he is always a candidate for 20+ opportunities, and the best part is, usually 25%+ is targets. Pass at TE, just not enough volume, and they typically split time.
TBB/ATL
Bucs have a great P/RB matchup.
Falcons have a meh P/RB matchup.
Brady has the best ASR matchup, Fournette has a good ALY push.
Ridder has a bad ASR matchup.
Bucs TTR is 18th.
Falcons TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is T-6th overall/MS. OURank is T-8th.
- Injuries - TBB - On D, the have like 6+ Q's. On OL, Ts Wirfs/Smith are Q. On O, WR Jones is Q.
- ATL - On OL,T Wilkinson is Q.
- Despite a sexy matchup, we can't trust the top starters on TBB. I believe the coach said they'll start but who knows how long, and they are 4 point dogs, so vegas sees concerns too. As much as I want this offense, we just can't do it. MAYBE Gage? if Jones is inactive, as he may still play snaps when starters go off? I'd like more clarity on that though if so.
Allgeier had 55% of snaps to Pattersons 50%, he finished with 21 opps to pattersons 17, but patterson had 8 targets to allgeiers one, and had RZ opps too, he's also cheaper, and actually the one I prefer of the 2. In 3 games with Ridder, London has 28 targets, equaling a massive 34.1% target share, and he's under 5K, those 2 things shouldn't co-exist, and if the season was longer, I bet by next week he'd be more expensive. He's on my list.
CAR/NOS
Panthers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Saints have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Darnold has a meh ASR matchup.
Panthers TTR is T-14th.
Saints TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 16th overall (last), 13th in MS (last). OURank is T-5th.
- Injuries - CAR - On D, CB Horn (92%) is out for 2nd week, pointed this out last week, but they have 3 other CBs out from many weeks ago too. Notable DT Ioannidis (71%) is Q.
- NOS - On D, CB Adebo (94%) is out, notable Ss Maye (99%)/Evans (44%) are Q. On O, TEs Hill/Johnson are Q.
- I won't be doing it, but if you want to take a shot at one of this RBs be my guest, Foreman gets less snaps weekly, and has 0 ppr value, and Hubbard, while playing more, hitting 53% of snaps last week, had just 6 opportunities.... Even with a TD, what's his ceiling, 15/16 points? barely 3x'ing his value, and Foreman could easily vulture it, plus this is the worst game in regards to pace, and they're dogs, Idk.... Hubbard at best or nothing at all. With Darnold at the helm, Moore has led the team with like a 6~ target average, which isn't great, but it is a 30% target share, which is plus a massive 16.5 aDOT/r. He is the highest price he's been all year, but it should be a passing script, I get it either way. I keep wanting to do pivots and play marshall, as he's playing like 90% of snaps, but Darnold just doesn't throw his way... I don't want to full fade, but I may take him in 1 maybe 2 lineups if mass entering, as it should translate at some point, and this is the last week to do so.
I don't know what the heck to do with Kamara. He is in another great spot for what seems like the 4th~ week in a row. but in 2 of his last 4 games he's failed to hit 60% of snaps, his huge target floor of earlier in the year has dwindled. and he hasn't scored more than 13 FPs (taking out his one TD in week 16), since week 8, which is pretty shameful. Having said that, if this keeps his ownership low, he has never been cheaper all year, and does have 20+ opportunity potential, with I'd like to say, TD equity (but maybe that's wrong....) I have interest, but I have interest in the WRs too, and I know I can't be playing both to often. I've been a Shaheed truther for a few weeks now, and DK has finally raised his price in B2B weeks, but this guy has seen his snaps rise in 4 straight weeks before the bye, and post the bye he sits around 70% (not taking into account the whack game vs CLV), which is more than Olave of late. I'll say this, if more people go to shaheed as the punt/NOS piece, I'll want more Olave, but otherwise, he makes more sense to me, as he has had slightly more snaps/targets, and is considerably cheaper (but with a lower aDOT/r.),Don't forget what Brady just did to this defense.
CLV/PIT
Browns have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Steelers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Watson has a good ASR matchup. Chubb has a meh ALY push.
Najee has a great ALY push.
Browns TTR is T-14th.
Steelers TTR is 10th.
Pace of play is 11th overall, 10th in MS. OURank is T-8th.
- Injuries - CLV - On D, Clowney (63%) is probably O, LBs Owusu (75%)/Takitaki (65%) is out for 4th/5th week, LB Kunasyk (20%) out for 2nd week. Notable CB Ward (89%) is Q. On OL, T Conklin (3rd best rated) is out, C Pocic is Q. On O, WR Cooper is Q.
- PIT - On D, DT Wormley (36%) is out for 4th week, some notable Q's in S Fitzpatrick (99%)/LB Jack (81%)/DT Ogunjobi (66%)LB Highsmith (88%) but may be returning CBs Jackson/Witherspoon too.
- I get wanting to use Watson in tourneys because of how range-y/low owned he'll be, but his floor is so scary. This is a run first team, and if playing in a nuetral/positive run script, he and his pass catchers will get no volume. Last week he completed just 9 of 18 passes, but had 3 TDs, he does have SOME rushing side to him, but PIT D is getting healthier, and I can see this being sloppy. I guess Njoku can be on our list, he does have a 21% target share in games with Watson, and over a 2 RZ/t/g average. I feel bad for Chubb, I like him, but he just doesn't get targets, which is scary. If you really think CLV plays this close, or with a lead, Chubb could make sense, he's obviously a threat/easy candidate for 100+ rushing yards, and he'll be low owned, but you may need 2 TDs for playing him to pay off.
I'll say this, if PIT gets in, I don't think anyone wants to see this defense with them possibly entering as healthy as they've been all year. Hope people what Warren did last week (15 Opps, 98 total yards, 40% of snaps) and use that to justify fading Najee. Najee this week, is a favorite, has a great ALY push, and is coming off 3 straight games 24+ opportunities, and he's still kind of cheap, and in his last 2 games with Pickett (as he didn't start the 2 before that), Harris is averaging 6 targets too, he is definitely at the top portion of my list. I don't think we need to target the WRs, but Johnson has like a 23% target share with pickett (about 8 targets/g), Pickens seems to be the deeper aDOT guy, I probably won't have much of either. Friermuth is an alright option, he still plays a healthy amount of snaps, has averaged 7 targets over last 2, but he has seen his aDOT drop a little, I don't love or hate him. Probably won't have much of him, if that, though.
HOU/IND
Texans have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Freeman? has a bad ALY push.
Ehlinger? has a meh ASR matchup.
Texans TTR is T-20th.
Colts TTR is 12th.
Pace of play is 5th overall/MS. OURank is 13th.
- Injuries - HOU - On D, notables CB Nelson (99%)/LB Okoronkwo (43%) are Q. On O, TE/WR Howard/Dorsett are Q.
- IND - On D, DE Ngakoue (73%),CB Rodgers (50%) are out for 2nd week, CB Moore (99%) is still out (5th week), Notable CB/S Gilmore (99%)/Facyson(40%) are Q. On O, TE Granson is out, WR Dulin is Q.
- The pace here is quietly good, we know HOU D isn't so scary, and the IND D has been kind of wishy-washy, sometimes they look terrible, sometimes great, but we see the defensive injuries adding. Having said that, I still don't want this HOU RBBC, while they're super cheap, the 2 PPR guys don't get enough touches, and the lead back is playing in a game where they're projected to be behind, and he gets barely any targets, pass. Cooks has averaged 8 targets/g since returning, which saw Moore's production drop off a smidge, I have interest in him, and I guess if Dorsett is out., maybe Moore than but most likely not. Akins is interesting, as he's averaging 4 targets/g over his last 3, but with a nice 9.1 aDOT/r..... having said that, he sees just 50-60% of snaps, and there are 3 that they play.... I'd save it for a Mills + Cooks/Akins~ stack/moss bring back IF you really go there mass entering.
I'm assuming Ehlinger is starting, haven't seen definitive news. If so, he loves Pittman, who has like a 30% target share on his pass attempts, and would peak my interest. Otherwise, idk if I'll have the WRs, do note, Campbell/Pierce both play 80-95% of snaps, and it would not surprise me if one of them has a good game (would play pierce, as he's the aDOT/r guy.) Still with no Granson, Woods will be on my TE punt radar. Moss has play 60-70% of snaps in last 3 games, all of which they fell behind at some point, he unfortunately doesn't get PPR love, so there's a huge risk, but he is playing the HOU run D, he is a fave, the pace is decent... he's a poor mans chubb, but at a discount. I'll have him, but I won't be over or under weight really.
4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
DAL/WAS
Cowboys have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Comms have a bad P/RB matchup.
Dak has a good ASR matchup, Zeke? has a meh ALY push.
Howell? has a meh ASR matchup, Robinson has a meh ALY push.
Cowboys TTR is 6th.
Comms TTR is 24th.
Pace of play is 8th overall/MS. OURank is 7th.
- Injuries - DAL - On D, LB Vander Esch (79%) is out for 3rd week, CB Brown (90%) is out for 5th week. On OL, C Biadasz is out, T Steele is out for 3rd week, they may be returning G Farniok (worse rated of the 3).
- WAS - On D, CB St-Juste (89%)/DE Smith-Williams (60%)/DT Allen (85%) are out for 2nd week, LB Bostic (48%) is out for 3rd week. Notable S Curl(99%)/LB Davis(85%) are Q. On OL, T Lucas (worst rated) is out. On O, no RBs Gibson/Robinson
- I didn't really want to play Zeke/Pollard in this matchup, since week 12, they've been playing 50-60% of snaps each, and both average 18 opportunities (pollard more targets/zeke more carries). They are expensive, and in a perceived tough matchup. But they are big faves, WAS has a mess of injuries (and their 3rd QB starting), the TTR is good, I really don't know what I'm doing yet with this backfield. I have/had interest in the passing options, but I know they aren't afraid to shut it down when playing with a lead, and limit Dak, as he's had below 30 pass attempts 4 out of 11 times this season, and broken 300 passing yards just once. The positives? WAS D could be missing even more starters, his last 4 games has been his best in regards to attempts/yardage, and they are playing for something, so maybe they don't take the peddle off. In those 4 weeks Lamb has had a 26% target share, 9.5/g, with an ok aDOT/r of 7.1. Brown/Gallup are both around 5 targets/g, with aDOT/r's around 10, they're virtually the same person, but gallup plays a smidgen more... if going here, I'd go with the cheaper brown, but idk if I touch it at all. Schultz has 90%+ snap opportunity, with 7~ target mean, and an ok aDOT/r of 6, if you want to go here, that's fine, I won't be.
From a volume/value over price stand point, Williams should be on everybody's player pool. I'm not saying you have to play him, but 10 points seems like a very safe floor for him, asking for 60~ total yards and 4 catches seems easy. I'm not expecting much out of Howell, but DAL D has had lapses vs the pass, and apparently this guy is aggressive, while also rushing for over 1.1K yards in his last season at college. If mass entering, take a show with him, and maybe pair him with McLaurin and/or Dotson. I will note, Thomas has played his season high in snaps last week (84%), has like a 20% target share over his last 3, and is just 3K .... he's not a bad punt option/one-off.
NYG/PHI
Giants have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Jones has the worst ASR matchup of the MS.
Sanders has the best ALY matchup of the MS.
Giants TTR is 25th.
Eagles TTR is 1st.
Pace of play is 2nd overall/MS. OURank is T-1st.
- Injuries - NYG - On D, DE Williams (75%) is out, LB Ojulari (54%) is out for 2nd week, CB Jackson (87%) is doubtful to return.
- PHI - On D, DE Sweat (56%) is out, CB Maddox (75%) is out for 2nd week, DE Quinn could be returning. On OL, T Johnson (best rated) is out for 2nd week. On O, QB Hurts is Q.
- Welp, we know we can't play the big starters here. And the other problem is, yes, the backups are cheap, but when will they be involved? Is it Worth it? I don't think so, I could be talked into Richie James, as I think he will play regardless of what starting team is out there. Don't go for Breida when guys like Mattison/Hubbard/Moss are just as cheap.
I want to like PHI WRs/Hurts, but I think this is a no contest, and eventually they won't be in the game, but in theory, its the best OU, great pace, and they have the #1 TTR, so can we fully avoid them? Idk. I think Sanders is a HUGE risk/reward. If NYG can keep it within 2 possessions, I think he can have a massive day, but if he doesn't score early, and the game goes out of hand, Scott/Gainwell will take over. And we know sanders already has a low PPR floor, so you can be sitting on a dud or a stud. Maybe if mass entering, take a shot on one of those backup RBs.
ARI/SFO
Cards have a bad P/RB matchup.
49ers have a good P/RB matchup.
Conner has a bad ALY push.
Purdy has a great ASR matchup, CMC has a good ALY push.
Cards TTR is 26th (last).
49ers TTR is 2nd.
Pace of play is 10th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is T-8th.
- Injuries - ARI - On D, DE Ledbetter (36%)/LB Collins (98%)/S Banjo (15%) are out, CBs Wilson (85%)/Hamilton (62%)/DT Hill (28%)/S Baker (98%) are out for 2nd week, DE Allen (79%) is out for 4th week, On O, there's no WRs Anderson/Moore/DHop, no RB Conner, no QBs Murray/McCoy.
- SFO - On D, LB Greenlaw (88%) is out, DTs Givens (48%)/Ridgeway (39%) are out for 5th week. DT Kinlaw (46%)/DE Armstead (64%) are Q. On OL, T Banks (3rd best rated) is out. On O, Mitchell/Deebo are back
- Arizona has 100 injuries/out, and aren't playing for much, except maybe spoiler, but SFO may not even move with a win. The one good thing is Zona does have cheap pieces because of the injuries. Clement is under 5K, and if he even gets a decent portion of Conners volume/snaps I can see him being an option for some, but I probably won't go there. Last week with Blough and the riddled WRs, Hollywood/Dortch/McBride had 75% of Bloughs pass attempts (9/10/10), I think any of them can be one-offed, and that's where I prefer (over the backfield). Will note, McBride surprisingly had the best aDOT/r of the 3, at 7.7, which is really good for TEs.... he may be the lock and look away option.
Idk what to do with the 49ers, with deebo back, it should mean a bit of a decrease in volume to kittle/aiyuk (Even CMC), and with MItchell back, it should be another knock on CMC a bit, and they are huge faves, I would ONLY take the big names here if I'm game stacking with ARI players, as I don't think they'll pay off without ARI keeping it semi respectable in score.
LAC/DEN
Chargers have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Herbie has a good ASR matchup, Ekeler has a good ALY push.
Russ has a bad ASR matchup, Murray? has a great ALY push.
Chargers TTR is T-14th.
Broncos TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 1st overall/MS. OURank is 11th.
- Injuries - LAC - On D, DT Gaziano (37%) is out for 3rd week.
- DEN - On D, DT Jones (55%) is out for 3rd week, DE Gregory (50%) is out for 3rd week. Notable S Mathis (82%) is Q. On O, TE Dulcich is out, and TEs Tomlinson/Saubert are Q. WR Hinton is out, RB Mack is out.
- First off, if Balty loses, we can't play starters for LAC....., but this makes things intriguing, as most will fill out lineups with this in mind, and not many will adjust accordingly, so if BAL does win, I think we can get these players at a very low ownership. So all this is contingent on BAL winning. In PPR formats, Ekeler has finished top 5 at RB 10 of 16 times, he has 6 multi TD games, he has a solid PPR floor, and good efficiency numbers, I will have a lot of him, and this may be one of the few times he actually has a good ALY push to boot too. I just can't believe Allens price is similar to Williams now. Allen has like a 30% target share since Williams returned Wk 14, with triple the amount of RZ targets, I know Williams is a good aDOT/r guy, but give me the volume with the upside as well when they are similarly priced. IF BAL loses, I may have interest in Carter at 4.1K. All 3 TEs are healthy for LAC, and they play each between 40-60% of snaps, I think Everett is obivously the choice, but this'll be the 2nd time since week 6 all have been healthy, and he's averaged just over 4 targets in those games, with a very poor aDOT/r of under 2. Pass.
Murray has played equally snap wise with Edmonds the last 2 weeks (when edmonds returned), and this is with the broncos playing from behind/blown out across both of those games... even with that, Murray has had 15~ opps (4.5 targets) to edmonds 9 opps (2.5 targets) per game averages. I think if LAC does or doesn't have anything to play for, Murray still makes sense. I can't play jeudy at that price in this matchup, but Sutton is under 5K, and has had a 20% target share with an 11.1 aDOT/r since he's returned too, I don't hate him. Plus there's practically nobody but these 2, and will play 90% of snaps. With dulchich out last week, okwuegbunam came back and played 53% of snaps, and had a 17% target share, and an aDOT/r of 8.3, that's solid. 1 of the 2 TEs behind him, who played 34% of snaps is currently Q. He may be one of Wilsons favorite targets, and I'd keep him on your list.
LAR/SEA
Rams have a good P/RB matchup.
Seahawks have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Baker has a bad ASR matchup.
Geno has a meh ASR matchup, Walker has a meh ALY push.
Rams TTR is T-20th.
Seahawks TTR is 7th.
Pace of play is 13th overall, 11th in MS. OURank is T-5th.
- Injuries - LAR - On D, S Scott (97%) is out, still no DT Donald. On O, WR Skowronek is out. On OL, C Allen is out for 2nd week.
- SEA - On D, LB Brooks (94%) is out, DT Mone (36%) is out for 4th week. Notable S Neal (84%)/DT Jefferson (49%) are Q. On O, no WR Goodwin, Lockett is Q. No TE Dissly, RB Homer is D.
- Akers continues to shine, and has another above average matchup. He has b2b weeks of atleast 21 opportunities (though just 2 targets avg.), but he has TD equity, with 100+ yards possibility, hes a fine option. Look Higbee is an option I won't talk you off of, but I probably don't go here... I think most do, so I don't want that ownership exposure, and he has a poor aDOT/r that barely breaks 2. The WRs on the otherhand I think can be one-offed. They're projected to be in a negative script, since skowronek went down (and even when he was there), Van Jefferson hasn't had an aDOT/r under 15, with an 18% target share (but it is on small volume).... I just think they're cheap enough under 4K to consider as possible punt options, Jefferson also plays every down.
Walker may be a better version of Akers and they're similarly priced, plus he's the favorite, but he plays less snaps, and has the worst ALY push, I may have him, but idk if I'm sold. I want me Metcalf, I think Lockett is banged up and carries re-injury risk. Metcalf had a tough matchup last week, but they are in a must win he's their alpha, and the 6 games prior to last week he was averaging 10 targets a game (with a mostly healthy lockett). Parkinson not only outplayed fant last week, he outsnapped him to, as he played almost 90% of snaps,... he's had a really good TE aDOT/r of 7.3, and a 17% target share over his last 2, and comes in almost at min priced... last found for me, but I actually like him as a punt option. Definitely don't go fant.
