Write-ups may be quick as I'm running out of time
Sunday 1 PMs/Main Slate
ATL/NOS
Falcons have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Saints have a great P/RB matchup.
Ridder has a bad ASR matchup. Patterson has a good ALY push.
Dalton has a great ASR matchup, Kamara has a great ALY push.
Falcons TTR is 16th
Saints TTR is 6th
Pace of play is T-14th overall, 10th (last) in MS. OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - ATL - On D, DT Graham (65%) is out for 4th week.
- NOS - On D, CB WIlliams (47%) is out for 2nd week, then a tonf of Q's. Lattimore/Turner/Wener/Gray. On O, no RB Ingram, TEs Trautman/Johnson are Q.
- Since pattersons return, him/algeier have been averaging about 12 opportunities each, and are in a true 5050 split. The problem is the targets are meh, and not sure if Ridder improves that or not. I guess Algeier is cheap enough, to where if he gets 80-1 with a catch or two, he could 4X his salary, but I don't think I go here. Ridder is apparently a dual threat kind of QB, I'd assume they have to throw more than they did (maybe?)... he's cheap, and his pass catchers to link are cheap, if you want to take a shot with Ridder + London (maybe Zaccheaus)... I don't mind it this week.
With no Ingram, Kamara is a 70 to 90% snap guy. He's also extremely cheap for his salary, and should be played in a high priority amount of lineups. To add, he has a great RB DVOA/ALY Push, and they're faves. I think Dalton is also cheap enough to play and pair with Olave, I will note, Shaheed seems to becoming the WR2, and is SO CHEAP, last week he hit 61% of snaps, he can be a good pivot. If one of Trautman/Johnson is out, the other could become an 80%+ snap guy.
DET/NYJ
Lions have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Jets have a good P/RB matchup.
Goff has a good ASR matchup.
White? has a good ASR matchup.
Lions TTR is 12th.
Jets TTR is 8th.
Pace of play is 3rd overall, 2nd in MS. OURank is T-7th.
- Injuries - DET - On D, LB Barnes (40%) is out for 2nd week, LB Okwara (32%) is out for 3rd week, with LB Harris (71%) still out too, CB/DE Hughes (66%)/Hutchinson (86%) are Q. On O, RB Jackson is Q
- NYJ - On D, DT/S Williams (64%)/Joyner(100%) are Q. On O, no QB White/WR Davis.
- Lions have been in a 3 RBBC for 5~ weeks now. Swift has been averaging about 5 targets a game, and 14 total opps/g, I mention this, because we don't want 0 target only successful with TDs Williams, and there's a chance RB3 Jackson sits... which will give me interest to a cheap swift., otherwise pass. I know Jameson had that nice TD, but he didn't even hit 20% of snaps.. if he sees a role increase, he'd take away from reynolds, but his (both actually) prices don't make sense. You can get chark for 400 more and he has had a sexy aDOT/r of 12.1 since his return, and has also seen a snap increase in every game, hitting 86% last week... he's not going away. St. Brown is a PPR machine that can always be considered, but if we need the salary relief, Charks price/production is way better. I'd do one-offs only.
Zonovan I guess is cheap enough to play, but he was in a 5050 split with carter last week, and with Carter than, Zonovans PPR production fell off. We also have Wilson back, which could be a downgrade to the offense as a hole. With no davis, Moore has stepped in and played over 80% of snaps, he led the team in targets, and he's priced laughably low. sorry wilson (garrett) but moore is the no brainer. Just need the other wilson to step up! Conklin plays enough, he's cheap enough, and gets enough targets, to always be considered, but he has such a shallow aDOT/r, and I'm only one-offing here, and Moore is just the dunk option.
KCC/HOU
Chiefs have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Texans have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Mahomes has a great ASR matchup, Pacheco has the best ALY push.
Mills? has a meh ASR matchup.
Chiefs TTR is 1st
Texans TTR is T-18th
Pace of play is 7th overall, 5th in MS. OURank is 1st.
- Injuries - KCC - On D, DT JoneS (83%) is Q. On O, WR Toney is Q.
- HOU - On D, CB Nelson (99%) is out for 2nd week, CB Stingley (97%) is still out too. On O, NO RB Pierce/WRs Cooks/Collins.
- Pacheco/McKinnon averaged about 15 Opps last week, both are in the 5K range, and play in an efficient offense, I won't tell you not to play them, but if its not a close game like Denver last week, I think Pacheco>McKinnon. Having said that, we probably want Mahomes + Pass catchers more. He is a threat for a 30 burger every week, and Houston has a percieved good pass D, which may be right, but they're missing their top 2 corners still, and go up against the best now... and everyone of his pass catchers not named Kelce are so cheap. Toney should be back, which kind of eliminates Moore for me, and knocks down MVS/Watson. but give me Toney/Juju, and even Kelce.
Ogunbowale is cheap enough to pay off his PPR possible salary., but I think going back to Moore is the way to go!, I will say if a ton of people chase his performance, Dorsett is a cheaper, fine pivot, as he played just as many snaps.. but I still prefer Moore.
PHI/CHI
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Bears have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Sanders has a great ALY push.
Fields has the worst ASR matchup, Montgomery has a good ALY push.
Eagles TTR is 2nd
Bears TTR is 14th
Pace of play is T-8th overall, T-6th in MS. OURank is 2nd.
- Injuries - PHI - On D, S Gardner-Johnson (92%) is out for 3rd week, S Blankenship (47%) is out, DE Quinn (54%) is out for 3rd week.
- CHI - On D, S Jackson (94%) is out for 2nd week. On O, no WR Claypool, WR Harry is Q.
- Sanders is coming of a 20 touch performance game, and has now hit over 150 total yards and 2+ TDs twice in 3 weeks, he's still not to expensive, and is walking into another smash spot. If you want to go hurts + brown/smith, won't fault you.
Fields is not far removed from being an absolutely monster. I don't want to forget about him, as he has RB1 potential with QB points, St.brown/Pettis are super cheap, and can be considered, but if I'm pairing him, i'd probably go Kmet, as he's shown slate breaking upside in this Fields surge, and he plays 100% of snaps. Naked or Kmet IMO.
PIT/CAR
Steelers have a good P/RB matchup.
Panthers have a meh P/RB matchup.
Trubisky has a good ASR matchup.
Steelers TTR is 20th (last)
Panthers TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 10th overall, 8th in MS. OURank is 9th.
- Injuries - PIT - On D, LB Jack may be returning. DT Wormley (36%) is out,
- CAR - On D, S Woods (96%) is out. On O, WR Moore/Shenault are Q.
- I guess Najee is cheap enough, but he saw his snap counts fall last week, and hasn't been great past 3 weeks, finishing at 5, 10, 7 FPs taking out the TDs last 3 weeks. Diontae Johnson still leads this team in snaps and targets by a lot, and I think Trubisky only helps him be at the higher end of his range, as he's averaged 9~ targets with him, I like him. Frier's targets have fallen last 3 weeks, and he isn't cheap, in a meh matchup, I'll pass here.
If you think Carolina keeps it close/plays with a lead, Foreman is almost a must start... and vegas expects that scenario. You can penciil him in for 20+ opportunities, he is on my list (not to go overboard, as he has a low ppr floor), but in the player pool. Darnold just isn't throwing enough to trust his pass catchers, but I'll solely throw out Marshall, because Moore/Shenault are Q, and either way, he already plays 80-95% of snaps, while being cheap as heck.
DAL/JAC
Cowboys have a great P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Jags have a bad P/RB matchup.
Dak has a great ASR matchup.
Lawrence has a meh ASR matchup, Etienne? has a meh ALY push.
Cowboys TTR is 3rd.
Jags TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 1st overall, 1st in MS. OURank is 3rd.
- Injuries - DAL - On D, DE Hankins (35%) is out, CB Brown (90%) is out for 2nd week, DE Armstrong (49%) is Q. On OL, T Steele is out. On O, TE Ferguson is out.
- JAC - On D, like 5 Q's.
- Pollard is so efficient, but his price is getting really high, and Zeke obviously has a role in this offense. I don't hate pollard, but I don't think he is a must start... I'll have a small amount of him. I don't want Zeke, but he now has b2b games with 20 opps., and 6 straight games with atleast 1 TD... I want to ignore him, but I don't blame you for going here. Aside from the committee, we can look at this offense and see that the passing matchup is much greater than the R. Dak can be a great pivot off the backs, the pace is #1, the OURank is good, and he's in a sexy DVOA/ASR spot. Lamb, Gallup, Brown can all be considered. I thought I was going to like gallup over brown this week, but brown is cheaper, plays just as many snaps, and has had the better aDOT/r, I'd rather him. Lamb is alawys a good option. I want to point out Schultz though, without Ferguson last week, he played 93% of snaps, and had 10 targets.... He will be up there for priority at TE for me.
Etienne has been atrocious of late, he's in a bad spot on paper, they're dogs, and Jags have been throwing a lot more recently. But the pluses? Everyone will see that and his ownership will be peanuts, he's the cheapest he's ever been in about 7+ weeks, and he still plays 75-90% of snaps, I won't go overboard, but I think I may be overweight here. Kirk/Zay for me at WR, don't think I'm chasing Engram.
4PMs/Main Slate Cont.
ARI/DEN
Cards have a good RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Broncos have a good P/RB matchup.
Cards TTR is T-18th.
Broncos TTR is 17th.
Pace of play is 6th overall, 4th in MS. OURank is 10th (last).
- Injuries - ARI - On D, DE Allen (79%) is out, couple of Q CBs. On O, no WR Moore, WR Hollywood is Q.
- DEN - On D, DE Jones (81%) is out, LB Martin (30%) is out. On O, WRs Sutton/Hinton/Hamler are out. QB Wilson is out.
- With Colt McCoy, Hopkins has had 37 targets across 3 games, equaling 33% of targets, he's in a touch matchup, and I feel like NOBODY will be on him, but he's an alpha, and that kind of leverage is impossible to pass up. Conner is my other option, In McCoys 3 games he's averaged 5 targets, and like 17 carries, while playing like 90%+ of snaps. Those would be my 2 options here.
I didn't want to go back to Jeudy, and chase his performance, but In week 7 when Rypien started, he had 11 targets vs a tough Jets secondary (with 13 targets going to no longer here Sutton/Hamler), and finished with a 7-96 statline.... and we saw him go to him in his limited time last week too.... If people are scared to go here, I actually don't hate him either. Dulich hits the same kind of opportunity, week 7 he had 9 targets, and should be a favorite of rypiens, strictly one-offs. I have to admit, Latavius murray is cheap, and could get to his cap of 21 opportunities, but there's scenarios where Broncos don't play with a lead, it is the worst OURank, and Mack may have carved a bigger role. I don't think we need to go here, but he can be kept in your player pool.
NEP/LVR
Patriots have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Raiders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Stevenson? has a meh ALY push.
Jacobs? has a great ALY push.
Pats TTR is T-10th
Raiders TTR is 7th.
Pace of play is T-12th overall, 9th in MS. OURank is T-5th.
- Injuries - NEP - On D, S Mills (75%) is out for 3rd week. On O, RB Harris is out, RB Stevenson is Q. WR Parker is out, WR Meyers is Q.
- LVR - On D, CB Ya-Sin (89%)/LB Brown (80%) are out for 2nd week, LB/DT Perryman (67%)/Billings (51%) are Q. On O, RB Jacobs Is Q.
- The Pats are cheap, and in a smash spot, the problem is we don't know the status of some players... this may be an opportunity to make lineups with Latavius and someone else in it in the 4PM games, and switch to Strong/Harris is Stevenson is out, and pay up for someone else, as the RBs are 4K floor price, and will be in starter territory. Agholor>Thornton>Bournce if Meyers is out.
IF jacobs plays, this will be the first time since Wk2 that the raiders have had all their pieces. Renfrow is out for me, throughout the year, hollins has been the better snap guy, and think they eat into eachother, plus its a tough matchup. Waller has a bit of interest for me, if we know he's fully healthy and ready to be his 80%~ snap count guy, him and Adams for me. If Jacobs plays, he may go low owned, as its a 4pm start time, and people are concerned with the injury., but they're faves, and he has a great ALY push, he'd be on my list.
TEN/LAC
Titans have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Chargers have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Tannehill has a meh ASR matchup. Henry has a good ALY push.
Herbert has a great ASR matchup, Ekeler has the worst ALY push.
Titans TTR is T-10th
Chargers TTR is 4th.
Pace of play is T-8th overall, T-6th in MS. OURank is 4th.
- Injuries - TEN - On D, S Hooker (89%) is out, CB Fulton (89%)/CB Avery (30%), LB Long (89%) are out for 2nd week, DE Autry (65%) is out for 4th week. On O, RB Hilliard is out, WR Burks is out.
- LAC - On D, CB Callahan (62%) is out for 2nd week, S James (100%) is doubtful.
- Even playing from behind, Henry hit 75% of snaps, and that was a product of Hilliard getting hurt (and playing 13% of snaps still), with him being officially out, I don't think Henry will really be scripted out, and should get back to 75%, he also saw 5 targets last week too. He has a great RB matchup and is a slate breaker that we can always consider. W/O Burks Ikhine/Woods played a ton of snaps, and saw 40% of the targets, both are relatively cheap... I prefer Ikhine, but won't argue either way, I'll be limited here either way. I don't need to play Okwonkwo/Hooper, both saw 50% of snaps, and had 6/5 targets each, but if one is going to be projected much higher than the other... I'd play the lower % guy here.
Ok so the Titans are missing a bunch of secondary guys, Chargers LOVE to pass the ball, and Herbert has a great ASR/DVOA matchup, whats not to absolutely fucking love. I'll eliminate Everett, as he had a negative aDOT/r on 5 catches (HOW?!), Allen had a massive 14 targets last week, and played the most snaps, while having FOUR rz/t's. People love Mike Williams, and I'll have him, but Palmer is cheaper, will go lower owned, played more snaps, and had the same amount of targets with an aDOT/r like williams of 13.3... I think he's a smarter tourney pivot, but I'd keep both on my player pool. Ekeler is a WR1 with some rushing upside, i'll never talk you off.
CIN/TBB
Bengals have a meh P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a meh P/RB matchup.
Burrow has a bad ASR matchup.
Brady has the best ASR matchup.
Bengals TTR is 5th.
Bucs TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is 5th overall, 3rd in MS. OURank is T-5th.
- Injuries - CIN - On D, CB Hilton (78%), DE Hendrickson (76%) are out. CB Davis (43%) is doubtful, and they've been without CB Awuzie. On O, no TE Hurst.
- TBB - On D, a ton of Q's, but CB Dean (96%), LB Nassib (30%) are out, DT Vea (64%) is out for 2nd week.
- Mixon is overpriced for possibly his new role and matchup, pass in the backfield. Pass at the untargetted TE's. I think Chase can be played ,and is a must start if one of the 2 other WRs are out, I do have interest in Boyd too as he's cheap enough, and should have good expected volume.
It needs to be noted that brady is effin cheap, and they're the #1 pass team in the league. Bengals are missing a ton in the secondary, and a pass rusher is out. I think he can be considered, and can be paired easily. Evans>Godwin still for me, he's getting a bit to cheap (cheapest since week 1), but still gets insane volume, and has the best aDOT/r on the team. Its possible Otton has become the #1, but still pass with Brate there until there is a true tide change. I think white/fournette can pay of their cheap salaries, as they both get a ton of PPR floor chances, but I prefer white to fournette, I'll probably be underweight overall on him though as a TD is probably needed to be paid off.
