Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
CAR@PHI
Panthers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Young has a meh pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Hubbard~ has a meh rush potential.
Hurts has a great pressure rate situation, and pass potential. Barkley has a great rush potential.
Panthers TTR is 20th (bad/last).
Eagles TTR is 1st (great).
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U Rank is T-2nd.
- CAR confuses me. They obviously have the worst team total, but the offense has looked better the past few weeks. Hubbard is the cheapest he's been since week 5, but there is some stuff to consider here. While he still played 79% of snaps last week, that snap share makes anyone bottom 6K worthwhile, but he managed just 12 opportunities (ZERO TARGETS, they were all rush attempts) IF you think this is maintained, sure go for it. Brooks however saw his snap share rise to 21%, and had 9 opps (3 targets), if you think that rises, and/or gets bigger PPR ceiling in a negative rush script, I can see him being worth a shot in mass entry/tourney formats. I will take atleast 1 shot with young + wrs, but I also don't mind one-offing a pass catcher here for value. In the 2 games that Thielen has been back, all 3 WRs have aDOTs over 10. Moore is the cheapest, yet has the best target share (25.7%), and almost the best aDOT, 12.5. Legette is fine, but I think he is a more expensive/slightly worse version of moore, so passing for now. Thielen is interesting, he saw his snaps go from 61 to 73%, and maybe that ticks up as he is further removed from his return, and despite having a 19% target share over 2 weeks, he led last week with 24%. Tremble is a dart throw salary saver at 3K I won't argue --- obviously one-offs at most here unless doing a young stack (don't advise a lot at all though).
A team people may even onslaught stack, and I won't talk anyone off. The last time Goedert missed and Smith/Brown played together in full was weeks 6/7/8. Now before I begin, this approach will NEED CAR to keep pace. As in 2 of those 3 weeks were pretty much blowouts, and hurts had 14 and 20 pass attempts. Brown/Smith made up 58% of those attempts. If hurts is to throw more, these guys --- especially Brown --- should feast. We obviously know Barkley is always in consideration, even in those blowouts, where he had a snap share even as low as 53%, he had a floor of 20 opportunities, for him that may be a floor of 100 yards/1 TD. As we move further, we are just going to see if/where we can find appropriate value to make this work, as they are expensive of course.
LVR@TBB
Raiders have a good P/RB matchup.
Bucs have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
AOC has a meh pressure rate situation, and meh pass potential. Mattison? has a meh rush potential.
Baker has a great pressure rate situation, and great pass potential. Bucky~ has a good rush potential.
Raiders TTR is T-15th (meh).
Bucs TTR is 3rd (great).
Pace of play is T-5th. O/U Rank is T-2nd. (mirror image of the above).
- If Mattison is in, despite being cheap, we may have to avoid this backfield situation, as they'll have 3 players we aren't sure of usage. If he's out, one of Abdullah/McCormick could be worth a shot at the 4K range --- they both had over 12 opps (2 target floors), they could get you there in a plus matchup. Last week was AOC's first game in sometime and both Meyers and Bowers accounted for 73!!!!!!!% of the targets. Meyers had a 32.4%/11.36 aDOT, those are massive numbers, and when he is in the 5K range still he may be a square we just click and move on. Then Bowers had arguably a better statline with 41.2%/7.7 aDOT, atleast he is priced as the TE1 on the slate, so maybe you can argue you want to punt the position but idk if we can pass on the floor/ceiling combo. Tucker had just 1 target, but it had 38 air yards on it --- he obviously could hit a HR, but not sure I'll consider it.
Bucky had 28 opps (3 targets), but if he plays 1) he is coming in with a hip issue, 2) he is everyones new favorite toe, aka high ownership, and 3) last weeks easiest matchup is not the same as this weeks much tougher one. Also 4), he still only played 54% of snaps/his price jumped to the higher end of 6K's, he is a full fade for me. I'll only have interest in White if Bucky sits. I think Otton still has the capability to be a hit, but since Evans return, he only has a 15.6% target share and weak 3.3 aDOT, I can't fully trust it just yet despite a good matchup on paper, maybe I'll include him in mass entering tourneys. Evans is expensive, but in his 2 games he has a 28% target share/11.7 aDOT, this didn't hold true last week but typically TBB is a higher pass volume team, so he is someone I'll keep on my player pool. Shepard/McMillan or the 2/3 here, while McMillan has a superior aDOT, he only has a 8% target share, Shepard however is a very good PPR play, as he has a 21.9% target share, and 4 RZ targets in his last 2.
CLV@PIT
Browns have a bad P/RB matchup.
Steelers have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Winston has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Chubb has a bad rush potential.
Russ has a bad pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Najee~ has a meh rush potential.
Browns TTR is T-17th (meh).
Steelers TTR is 6th (good).
Pace of play is 4th. O/U Rank is 8th.
- We just cant trust Chubb, in games they fall behind --- which is always most likely --- he can't even hit 40% of snaps, and he already has a low PPR floor, pass. Here's the tough part, it is another tough matchup, but we know Winston will continue to sling it all day when needed to, and with no Tillman again, the volume is sooo concentrated. Jeudy had a 22.8%/15.8 aDOT, his price didn't move due to the MNF effect, my problem is his ownership may be a little high, and there absolutely is a path to disappointment, so I am still conflicted here. I do have more interest in Moore, He had a 24.6% target share, and while his aDOT of 9.4 last week (which is good enough) he in general has seen elevated depth with the play of Winston, he's just in the 4K range and somebody I'd def keep on the list. Njoku is one of the most expensive TEs, but again, with no Tillman, a 30% target share for a TE is massive, and he is also Winstons #1 RZ target (4 last week alone), more reason why I like Jeudy the least.
If you want to full fade the CLV passing ownership, maybe make a big leverage shift by using Chubb + Russ/Pickens? Idk if I go here, but a thought where mass entering. I know he's had moments where he 3x's this salary but I don't want timeshare najee in my tourney lineup. Especially with them letting russ cook a bit more -- they are #2 in run play% this year, but the last 3 weeks they aren't even in the top 10, and some of that volume came from early season fields. Pickens in his 4 games since the bye has had a 27% target share and a great 14.7 aDOT, he is considerable every week. The WR2 spot is tough, all PIT WRs behind pickens are in the 3K range which is value. I think we have to look just at Austin, he looked to be the guy that was taking on the bigger role, and has an aDOT over 15. My only fear is these guys tend to struggle to even get to 60% of snaps, and they have low target floors --- especially if PIT plays with a lead. I am not entirely sold on them, but understand the Austin dart throw (maybe jefferson?) Muth and Washington both tend to get over 50% of snaps, they are relatively cheap, I guess I can be convinced if you want to punt here that they are options.
ATL@MIN
Falcons have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Vikes have a meh P/RB matchup.
Cousins has a good pressure rate situation. Bijan has a meh rush potential.
Darnold has a great pass potential. Jones has a bad rush potential.
Falcons TTR is 14th.
Vikes TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 4th.
- I know Atlanta is right there for the division title, and maybe an outside shot to 7th wildcard, but Cousins leash has to be tightening a bit as he has been bad. Having said that, he is the cheapest he's been all year, we have a team that sells out to stop the run/pass funnel, they primarily only run 3 WR sets, dome game, positive projected script, cheap to stack, etc. Aka, I think he is a very intriguing tourney play while everyone wants to avoid. Reading the above, you know I don't really want Bijan, despite a pretty safe PPR floor, he has a tough matchup, and the guys priced around him I like a lot more. Since Londons return, his last 3 games he has had a massive 33.7% target share/11.45 aDOT, while having 6 RZ targets (2/g), somehow his price has fallen, and at 6.4K he is a steal imo. I look to one-off him, but not afraid to go to Mooney/RayRay either, like I said, they are all practically 99% snap guys. Pitts has been a disappointment, but he also is the cheapest he has been all year, and if mass entering, I'd include him in a game stack or two as his aDOT is still really good at 11, but not sure how much I actually go to him.
IT is hard to trust Jones, as if he fumbles, he immediately loses playing time, as he has had multiple games in the 50% snap count range, but we've seen 75%+ as well --- I think it's best to avoid him, but with 20+ touch upside, with a ppr floor, I get taking a shot in tourneys. We know JJ has slate breaking upside, and we just saw McConkey shred this D despite missing some of the game, so I won't tell anyone not to play him, but it's hard, when in the last 2 weeks of Hockensons larger role (and really a few weeks before that too), Addison actually grades out better, as he has a 24.6%/11.9 aDOT compared to JJs 23%/8.6 aDOT, and the icing on the cake is that he is 2.5K cheaper... I know Hockenson failed me (some of us) last week, but I have no issues going back to the well, he still has a 24.6% target share, with a decent 7.5 aDOT, you could do worse at 4K range.
JAC@TEN
Jags have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Titans have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Levis has a meh pressure rate situation. Pollard~ has a meh rush potential.
Jags TTR is T-17th (meh).
Titans TTR is 11th.
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is 10th (meh).
- My concern is they didn't let Mac Jones throw last week until they absolutely had too, the positive is that he was pretty good when called upon, and was very concentrated. In his pass attempts, Br. Thomas had a 29%~ target share, Pa. Washington had a 32%~, and Engram had a 29%~ --- this made up about 90%~ of all his pass attempts. If you think Titans play with a lead, I'd consider a cheap Jones stack for tourneys/multi entering. Otherwise, I'd save it for one-off value plays on one of the big 2 WRs. Engram I'd reserve just to game stacks, as he is priced higher than I'd like and I think there are better options.
I normally hate pollard when spears is active, but last week, despite being blown out, Pollard had a 73% snap count still (1% off his highest mark with spears active), and much higher than his avg with spears active, and again, this was in a game where they were out of it from the jump, if that is a sign of things to come, get ahead of this now. He's now gone 4 straight games with at least 4 targets (only lower than 3 targets once this year -- with 2), and we may easily see a high end 20+ touch opportunity count this week, at 6K range I'm going for it. The problem with my love for pollard this week is that I don't want to go overboard on titan players, that doesn't get you up in the mornings... having said that, Ridley in the 5K range is so egregious --- I feel like I say it weekly --- since Levi's return, he has a 25% target share, and a monster 18.43 aDOT, the guy has ceiling potential and the matchup couldn't be better, he is the ultimate tourney type player we look for. I am not chasing Ikhines numbers this week, despite playing it last week, he is priced higher than ever, and I know he will be much more popular, I want to fade that personally unless I am big game stacking.
NOS@NYG
Saints have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Giants have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Carr has a bad pressure rate situation. Kamara has a great rush potential.
Lock has a meh pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Tracy~ has a great rush potential.
Saints TTR is 10th.
Giants TTR is 19th (meh).
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U Rank is 9th (meh).
- I think all floors rise with the removal of taysom hill, as well as Carrs/Kamaras RZ TD equity, and I want to be ahead of it. Starting with Kamara, he's coming off a 29 opp (6 target) game, and I wouldn't be shocked to see those numbers remain that way for the season barring an injury/removal from games. I almost don't care the price, he will be very popular for me. And from Carrs perspective, he is SO cheap to stack with his WR or TE options. In his L4 games since his return, he had his most pass attempts last week (37) by far (avg'ing 27.6 in the prior 3) --- Taysom made up a big chunk of those attempts, 22% of them, so again, all floors rise, and they are all cheap, but who do we choose? MVS and his HUGE 22.8 aDOT, maybe. I know most will go to Johnson, and it makes me weary, especially when Moreau can be just as good, I don't hate either, they are at a minimum good punt/cheap value darts, but I think if I go Carr, I may want to pair him more with WRs (aside from Kamara), I guess Austin would be #2 behind MVS. My only fear is a comfortable lead, and the pace of the game slowing down, but I'll let fate decide.
No RB getting over 70% of snaps should be in the 5K range, especially one with some type of PPR floor, and coming off a game where he played 100% of RZ snaps. if they keep this game close, which I am hoping, I will be using him as my bring back in a handful of them. Last time Nabers missed, Hyatt saw the biggest jump in playing time, but it didn't really result in opportunities. Slayton was the one who led in both target share (33%), and aDOT (10.36), the only difference is that it is not Daniel Jones at QB. Still I'll take my chances in saying that Slayton is my favorite option of the bunch.
NYJ@MIA
Jets have a great P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Dolphins have a great RB matchup. meh P matchup.
Hall? has a bad rush potential.
Tua has a meh pass potential.
Jets TTR is T-15th (meh).
Dolphins TTR is 5th (good).
Pace of play is 10th (meh). O/U Rank is 5th.
- I am not really sold on B. Allen jumping into a workhorse role with Hall doubtful, and do believe Davis will spell him some, I'll let others jump up this ownership and I'll fade. Volume wise, Adams/Wilson can get there, but they've dud'd so they aren't the most exciting clicks. The plus side for them, they already combine for 55% of Rodgers targets, the 14.3% target share Hall makes up is now going to rise floors more, and both wilson/adams are the cheapest they've been all year. So I don't hate taking shots if you feel that way. There the only ones I'd debate, sorry conklin.
Since Tuas return, Achane has yet to have fewer then 4 targets (across 6 games), and he has hit at least 8 targets in 3 of those 6, the floor is just insane, his price is tough, especially with my love of Kamara, and Barkley sitting above him, but if he is projected to be the lowest owned of the big backs, he should be considered for tourneys. Joonus price has FINALLY jumped, I got bit mostly fading him the past few weeks, but I think now is the time I will, his aDOT is still not great, and it makes it easier now for me. Hill is cheap by his standards, but his metrics don't get you excited, he is under a 20% target share, and just under a 10 aDOT since tua's 6 game return --- I guess I get taking shots in tourneys as you know he has that ceiling potential, but I don't think I can do it, I'd rather take a shot on a cheap waddle who is in the 5K range.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
SEA@ARI
Seahawks have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Cards have a good RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Geno has a good pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Conner has a good rush potential.
Seahawks TTR is 12th.
Cards TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U Rank is 6th.
- Welp, Walker is out, Charb is a sick play at 4.8K, week 2 and 3 when walker was last out, charb avg'd 20.5 opps/g, 4.5 targets/g, that's a hard square to avoid. Lockett is unplayable, and while I like JSN, he can't be higher priced than Metcalf, I will only consider DK. He has a better target share (26% to 25%, but a much better aDOT, 13.8 to 8, yes please. Pass elsewhere.
Got to be quick ---- No interest in Conner, he still gets the volume, and has some ppr safety, but his snaps have been very range-y of late. McBride is always viable on PPR sites, he has a huge 35% target share his L2, but his aDOT of 4.4 leaves something to be desired. MHJ is still to cheap at 6K, I know he had some empty-less targets, but he still has a big aDOT, and is the WR1 on this team, I'm not giving up on him yet.
CHI@SFO
Bears have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
49ers have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Williams has a good pressure rate situation, but bad pass potential. Swift? has a good rush potential.
Purdy has a bad pass potential.
Bears TTR is 13th.
49ers TTR is T-7th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 7th.
- If we can trust swift to be a full goal, he has the ability to have a big workload and hopefully no fear of a new RB vulturing him. I have interest in this 5K range. Not in love trying to figure out which WR will get his in this offense, but if you take a shot and get it right, it'll be nice leverage in tourneys, I'll pass for now.
Guerendo falls into a tough matchup, but if truly a 3 down back, he is viable at 5.4K, but I will probably fade the ownership. Jennings is TOOO cheap at 5.2K, in his 4 games since returning, and without Aiyuk, he has a 33% target share, sign me up at 5.2K all day.
BUF@LAR
Bills have a good P/RB matchup.
Rams have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Allen has a great pass potential. Cook has a great rush potential.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Kyren has a meh rush potential.
Bills TTR is 2nd (great).
Rams TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 8th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (good).
- Cook hasn't played more than 55% of snaps since week 5, and you expect me to pay 7.4K for him? pass. IT is hard to get a read on Cooper as he has been in and out of the lineup, and they've played in negative pass scripts, but not sure I can trust him yet, plus coleman may be returning. Shakirs aDOT of 5.5~ in those 2 games with cooper isn't great, but he has a massive 34% target share, PPR sites he is absolutely viable.
With Kupp/Nacua all systems go, Kyren has lost his PPR upside, having just 1 target in the last 3 games combined, I am not paying 7.3K for that (he has also been sat at times because of ?, McVay...). Kupp/Nacua make up 60% of Staffords passes, and I expect them to at the least be playing in a neutral or positive pass script, I think both are viable.
