Sunday 1PMs/Main Slate
BUF@IND
Bills have a meh P/RB matchup.
Colts have a good P/RB matchup.
Allen has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential.
Flacco has a meh pass potential. Taylor has a bad rush potential.
Bills TTR is 2nd (good).
Colts TTR is 13th.
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is 2nd (good).
- Cooks price is always where you don't really want to play him... if you think this game with be played in a neutral script, I'd say fire him up because of that low ownership, but if it's a blowout one way or the other, he doesn't get a ton of snaps like others priced here, and he has a low target floor in those scenarios (getting 0 or 1 targets multiple times this season --- in his close games he can get 5+). K. Coleman has consistently been the snap leader among the WRs, and with him out, it opens a big opportunity for someone, he also had 3 RZ targets last 2 games (with cooper and all). Now idk Coopers playing time, Shakir is the most expensive (and has had a 25% target share recently), but for tourneys I don't mine a HR shot with Hollins. Kincaid is tied for the cheapest he has been all year, and he always seems SO close to a huge game and doesn't get it. I think he is interesting as I believe people have been burned with him, and he also has a ton of RZ looks, it is only a matter of time and I'd rather be ahead than behind.
Taylor had 25 opps/4 targets in his only semi full game with Flacco, in a game they lead throughout... Either way, I see 80%+ snaps and a projected negative script should mean even more targets. In Flaccos 3 games Pittman had a 20% target share, that is now going to be dispersed. Most will go to Downs, he had a 27.5% target share with Flacco, but his aDOT of 6, his high ownership, his tough matchup, and a middling price makes me want to avoid. I actually think Mitchell is an extremely interesting option in tourneys. In his 3 games with Flacco, he actually had a 13% target share, but he was the WR4, and never played more than 20% of snaps... in Weeks 1/2 with no Downs, he hit 64/59%, now with no pittman, and a projected script, I think 60% of snaps is his floor, at 3.4K he could quietly be a steal.
MIN@JAC
Vikings have a great P matchup. meh RB matchup.
Jags have a good P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Darnold has a good pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential. Jones has a meh rush potential.
Lawrence has a good pressure rate situation, but a meh pass potential.
Vikings TTR is T-5th (good).
Jags TTR is 16th.
Pace of play is 9th (meh). O/U Rank is 6th.
- Jones is interesting, he is a great volume based back, that has ppr safety too, and he is direct leverage off the passing attack everyone will be going to. I think if mass entering, consider him in a lineup or 2. His snaps since the bye/injury recovery has been his best in terms of snap counts too. Jefferson is rightly priced as the WR1 this week. In his 5 games with Addison, he has had a 31% target share/11.8 aDOT, and he is arguably in the best matchup you can have. I do think Addison can be considered, as he has a big 16.5 aDOT, and can take one at any moment. Hockenson looks cheap, but imo he is to expensive without knowing his usage, and with minny being a fave, passing for now.
Mac Jones as gotten over 273 passing yards just once in each of the last 2 seasons... now I do think he has better weapons, and he was never priced at 4.4K, so I get it. Now the WRs are kind of broken/coming in with injuries, I think at best I'd only want Parker Washington here, he is the healthiest, and actually played the most last week. My bigger interest is Engram, Henry actually had a handful of spike weeks with Jones, he plays 80%+ of snaps, and I think he goes very low owned with where he is priced/perceived matchup. Pass at RB.
ATL@NOS
Falcons have a great P/RB matchup.
Saints have a meh P/RB matchup.
Cousins has a great pressure rate situation, and a good pass potential. Bi.Robinson has a great rush potential.
Carr has a meh pressure rate situation, and a meh pass potential. Kamara has a good rush potential.
Falcons TTR is 3rd (good).
Saints TTR is 15th.
Pace of play is 2nd (good). O/U Rank is T-3rd.
- Even while leading from wire to wire, and even moments of running scripts (2+ possession lead), Bijan not only had his highest snap count since week 3 (75%), but he still managed 7 targets, he is the most expensive he has ever been, but 3x'ing continues to feel like a safe bet. I'm concerned about london, but if he says he is good to go, then I trust him, he is one the best WRs in terms of TD equity (T-2nd among all WRs in RZ targets), while playing for a team that throws it 57% of the time. I won't have Mooney if London is in, as they are priced the same. If he's out, obviusly Mooney/Rayray get bumps.
Last week was Carrs first game without Olave/Shaheed, Kamara finished with 38 opps (9 targets), he had a 33% target share, no WR had over an 11%.... fire him up if you can/want. Tipton played the most and had a big aDOT, so I guess I'd lean him if going there. The TEs feel cheap, and if mass entering in tourneys, I'd consider, they have big aDOTs and play a lot, just need 1 TD for a 3.3K/3K Johnson/Moreau to hit.
NEP@CHI
Pats have a good RB matchup, bad P mtachup.
Bears have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Maye has a bad pressure rate situation, and bad pass potential. Stevenson has a meh rush potential.
Pats TTR is 19th (bad).
Bears TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is T-3rd. O/U Rank is 9th (bad).
- Stevenson is averaging almost 4 targets/g since returning from injury, and averaging 77%~ of snaps in his last 2, that would put him top 5 in terms of season avg snap counts by RBs. If he continues this, he probably should be priced higher than 6K in plus matchups, while I don't like the total in this game, the pace is healthy and I don't hate going here. I know it's a tough matchup, but Boutte has quietly played a ton of snaps the last 4 weeks (hitting 96% last week), and he's priced at 3.5K.... Bourne same boat at 3.2K, I have interest in them as one-offs/punts (more so boutte and his 18.2 aDOT.) I just want to mention Henry, if you like him go for it, he has a good TE aDOT of 9, and his target share with Maye is over 20%, I should like him more, but since I want to one-off boutte more, I will be underweight.
Swift grades out well, he is a 20+ opp guy, with PPR safety, with 1 TD, he will definitely 3x+ this salary. These WRs are almost interchangeable, they all play 80%+, they all have double digits aDOTs, and there target shares range from 18 to 24%. I lean Moore because he is at the top end of those ranges, and leads in RZ targets, but they are all appropriately priced/reflecting what I mentioned above. Because of this, and Williams lackluster performances, I do think you can get a relatively low owned sneaky stack, but I'd try it only if multi entering, otherwise pass.
PIT@WAS
Steelers have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Commanders have a bad P/RB matchup.
Russ has a meh pressure rate situation, but a good pass potential. Najee/Warren has a good rush potential.
Daniels has a meh pressure rate situation.
Steelers TTR is 14th.
Commanders TTR is 7th (good).
Pace of play is 11th (meh). O/U Rank is 5th.
- I am not taking a shot with williams yet, but pickens in his 2 games with Russ has a 26% target share, and a nice 14.8 aDOT, and 2 RZ targets/g, no issues going there! I'd play V. Jefferson in deep tourneys, as we don't know williams usage yet, this could be a sneaky shootout game (or low scoring..), and he also is up there in RZ targets/snaps. I know Harris has been hitting 100+ rushing yards, but in the last 4 games he has only got over 2 targets once, and he still is in a time share with Warren, so there will be games where maybe Warren gets the rushing TD (even Russ imo).
I think I could only play Ekeler if you think WAS is playing from behind. I don't want to pay almost 6K for a guy that may play less than 50% of snaps while being very popular. Like Henry, Ertz deserves a mentioned because he is cheeap, has a good TE aDOT of 8.8, and target share of 19%, I get it, don't love it, but you can do a lot worse. McLaurin is to expensive for me, but its a perceived tough matchup, nobody will be playing him, and on the season he has a 25% target share/15.3 aDOT, those are top 5 season long metrics. It seems as if Noah Brown is the WR2, and he's pretty cheap at 4.3K, so I get him as a pivot/punt.
SFO@TBB
49ers have a great RB matchup, meh P matchup.
Bucs have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Purdy has a good pressure rate situation, and good pass potential. CMC? has a good rush potential.
Baker has a good pressure rate situation. R. White~ has a great rush potential.
49ers TTR is 1st (great).
Bucs TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 13th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great).
We can't play CMC (or Mason) at this price without knowing his usage, as 8K will absolutely dud you if he's at 50%~ of snaps. I think we have to pass on pearsall, with Jennings/Deebo back, I'd think he takes a backseat again. Plus in his 2 games without them (practically as deebo got hurt early), he only had a 16% target share/7.8 aDOT. Lets not forget Jennings insane game without Deebo (now without Aiyuk) where he had a massive 41.5% target share/12.4 aDOT, I will be using him in lineups. Deebos reinjury risk/price concern me, pass. Aside from Jennings, I'm not sure how pricing will work for me yet, but Kittle can arguably be considered the WR1 on this team when one of (or both) Aiyuk/Deebo are missing, he has one of the best aDOTs for a TE, he gets RZ targets, and plays 90%+ of snaps.
Tampa/Baker throws the ball 60%~ of the time, and that hasn't changed much without Evans/Godwin. Now all of the WR passing options are cheap, but in the last 2 games, 5 of them have got playing time, and they have a combined 2 RZ targets (1 for miller/1 mcmillian), I guess McMillan I'd play the most if game stacking. White has seen his snap counts rise in 3 straight games after talks of hot hand/losing playing time, He has a nice PPR floor, and RZ usage is good, but I don't want to pay almost 6K for possibly 6~ opps. Otton is the one I desire the most, he practically plays every snap, has an insane 27% target share without the big 2, while averaging 2.5 RZ targets/g.
DEN@KCC
Broncos have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Chiefs have a bad P/RB matchup.
Nix has a bad pass potential. Jav. Williams has a bad rush potential.
Mahomes has a meh pass potential.
Broncos TTR is 18th (bad).
Chiefs TTR is 4th (good).
Pace of play is 7th. O/U Rank is 8th (meh).
- I think Nix is still cheap fwiw, even in last weeks drubbing he 3x'd this salary, nobody with this rushing floor is priced down here (even though he is the most expensive he's been all year). Nobody will be playing him, and nobody will be playing Sutton. Sutton has a solid 24% target share/13.5 aDOT, plays 80%+ of snaps (no other DEN WR gets to 60%), and is T-2nd among all players in RZ targets, he should be priced well over 6K yet sits at 5.6K. I don't hate Jav. Williams, and if he scores a TD he will shatter his value, but he's only hit over 20 opps once this year, and is priced at 6K (should be 5K range imo) --- if you wanted to take a shot at williams + Den D, I totally get it... Den D is priced at the lowest (with DAL), because of the matchup, but they can easily be the most valuable pick at that positiion.
Hunt is to expensive for his low target floor/matchup. Hopkins played 60% of snaps, that should continue to rise, and he still had a 21.5% target share/7.3 aDOT with 2 RZ targets, he is cheap at 5K with one of the best QBs at his disposal. Watson for HR shot, Worthy way to expensive. Kelce is intriguing, I have to mention his massive 38% target share despite a 5 aDOT... on ppr sites, he can slate break, idk if I'll have him, but he has only been trending up.
Sunday 4PMs/Main Slate (Cont.)
TEN@LAC
Titans have a bad P/RB matchup.
Chargers have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Rudolph? has a bad pressure rate situation, and a bad pass potential. Pollard has a bad rush potential.
Herbert has a good pass potential. Dobbins has a bad rush potential.
Titans TTR is 20th (last/bad).
Chargers TTR is 9th.
Pace of play is 14th (last/bad). O/U Rank is 10th (last/bad).
- This is the worst pace game and o/u game of the week, so we really shouldn't go here that often, if at all, but,
Pollard has quietly seen over 80% of snaps in his last 3 starts, and with Levis he averaged over 4 targets/g, it is obviously a bad matchup, and he feels priced to high, but in tourneys, I think he is an interesting low owned option (i'd lean into his receptions over --- as the projected script also helps). Ikhine has b2b games of playing over 90% of snaps (hitting 97% last week), a WR2 in the 3K price range seems like a cheap punt/salary saving option. Ridley had a monster 20+ aDOT with Levis, even though his target share was 21%, there no longer is hopkins, not in love with it but he continues to be cheap at 5K as well, not sure how I want to play it, as I don't want a ton of titans, but they all have merit imo.
On the flipside, Dobbins feels a bit expensive, in 2 of the last 4 games he didn't get over 17 opps. I will note he has had a decen target floor, and saw a high of 7 targets just 2 weeks ago, but it feels like at 7.2K you'd need another 2 TD performance to hit payday, I'd only do it with a LAC D stack. I like McConkey, he has a 23% target share, and a 10 aDOT, but he is more expensive than Ridley, can't do it. Dissly's aDOT is trash, and the return of QJ hampered is target share. I think one of these guys can hit a HR shot, all 3 WRs had aDOTs over 12 last week (McConk/QJ/Palmer), but I am not paying to choose which one.
NYJ@ARI
Jets have a great P matchup, good RB matchup.
Cards have a great RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Rodgers has a great pressure rate situation, and a great pass potential.
Kyler has a great pressure rate situation. Conner has a good rush potential.
Jets TTR is 8th (good).
Cards TTR is T-10th.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U Rank is T-3rd.
- Rodgers is cheappp, and Jets got right to the endzone and decided to throw it a lot last week... if this is the new era with Adams, I want to get ahead of this train in this matchup. I do think if this is a popular sentiment, or maybe pair them together, but Hall could be a pivot option off the passing attack (or a contrarian stack with it) He is floating around 20~ opps, but he has a PPR floor with the best of them (RBs), and we've seen big play potential out of him a lot, this should be one of the higher scoring games of the week, and jets season. Wilson and Adams combined for 55% of targets (with Hall it's over 70%+ of all targets), This is Evans/Godwin, Hill/Waddle, Kupp/Nacua, Chase/Higgins type of concentration we like for team/game stacking purposes. The prices being similar though, and Wilson having a better aDOT makes me lean towards him, but Adams is slightly higher in RZ targets, so I think either are possible, and I will definitely have a lineup or two with a big game/team stack that includes both.
Conner is pretty cheap for a workhorse back but even in a game with a 2 possession lead they were quick to not use him to much (48% snap count), I think he is fine to be played or avoided. I am leaning towards avoiding. In Weeks3/4/8 where ARI was in a shootout or playing from behind, MHJ had a 27% target share/15 aDOT combo (while scoring in each of those games), I think that is the scenario that is likely to play out today and I do like him as a low owned option. I will mention in those games Mi. Wilson has a 25% target share, could do worse at 4.6K.
PHI@DAL
Eagles have a great P/RB matchup.
Cowboys have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Barkley has a great rush potential.
Rush? has a bad pressure rate situation (grain of salt), and bad pass potential. Dowdle~ has a meh rush potential.
Eagles TTR is T-5th (good).
Cowboys TTR is 17th (meh).
Pace of play is 1st (good). O/U Rank is 7th (meh).
- Barkley had an insane 31 opps (4 targets) last week, nobody has that ceiling minus maybe Kamara this week, so I get it. Brown in his 4 full games has an insane 40% target share/9.7 aDOT, I am repeating myself, but nobody has that ceiling this week. Don't think I'll have much smith/goedert.
We don't have a lot of recent info on Rush, but in 2022 he started 5 games and honed in on his WR1 A LOT --- this WR1 was still lamb --- he had a 35% target share/9.4 aDOT. he is definitely a bit expensive, but people could be afraid to play him and ppr sites, I kind of love him. Dowdle looks like the featured back finally, hitting 71% of snaps last week, if that's the case, and his 6~ target area is the norm, he is cheap at 6.1K.
