ScopeY
Pretty much a regular
Great/Good/Meh/Bad for PrROE/Pass & Run Potential is just 1-2/3-4/5-6/7-8 ranges. Rest are season metrics where applicable.
Slates are into 2 game slates, but full weekend also plausible.
Saturday 2 Game Slate or Main Slate
HOU@KCC
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a meh P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation (6th), and a bad pass potential (7th). Mixon has a bad rush potential (7th).
Mahomes has a good pressure rate situation (4th), but a meh pass potential (5th). Pacheco/Hunt have a meh rush potential (6th).
Texans TTR is 4th (bad) in 2 game slate, and 8th in main slate
Chiefs TTR is 2nd (good) in 2 game slate, and T-3rd in main slate.
Pace of play is 2nd (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (meh/last) BY 2 FULL TDs in 2 game slate, and 4th/last in main slate.
- Mixon is a 20+ 100+ potential player with ppr floor, he is viable in any script. Among the 6 teams from last week, Collins had by far the best aDOT, 14.38 among any pass catcher with 4 or more targets., and this was in a game they led. He is obviously viable too. Metchie quielty had a 25% target share last week, despite playing just 48.5% of snaps, with Diontae (and his 21.5% of snaps) out, and Woods banged up, and a favorable script, I think he is an interesting salary saver play, just know if mass entering, don't forget about Hutchinson, as his ownership will be much less and he realistically has outcomes to a better game. Schultz had a good 10.5 aDOT last week, but I don't really want a party of the 12.5% target share, there's an argument that number obviously goes up, and KCC has been bad vs TEs, but I just like the other options more.
Mahomes L7~ weeks he has seen a pretty decent pass attempt number/volume, and he had a stretch of just 1 passing TD, if he gets to 3, which imo is absolutely doable, he could be the one we needed. He is 6th among the 8 QBs in pricing, which is wild to think about, but obviously makes sense when 4+~ above him have rushing floors that are nice. But who do we pair him with? Kelce is the obvious answer, and he tends to show up in a big way in the playoffs, I don't mind that, but if we nail the WR, you can get a big leg up on the competition. I got to think Hopkins gets unleashed a bit more, Hollywood should see a higher snap share too, but will both of these factors hurt Worthy? He had 4 straight weeks to end the season with over 80% of snaps, this was with the return of hollywood too, I have to go here, especially if his ownership is low. I am not playing Pacheco or Hunt, the 2 of them + perine have played between 19% and 48% (once) of snaps for 5 straight weeks, pass.
WAS@DET
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a great P/RB matchup.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation (7th), but a good pass potential (4th). Br. Robinson/Ekeler have a meh rush potential (5th).
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation (5th), but a great pass potential (2nd). Gibbs/Montgomery?! have a great rush potential (2nd).
Commanders TTR is 3rd (good) in 2 game slate, and 6th in main slate.
Lions TTR is 1st (great) in 2 game slate, and 1st in main slate.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U Rank is 1st (great) in 2 game slate, and 1st in main slate.
- Daniels more than 3x'd this salary last week despite a game he only throw for 2 TDs (4pt), and his rushing total was one of his lowest totals. The script should be favorable, and is one of my favorite plays. McLaurin graded out as the #1 WR last week, with a 31.25% target share, and 11.4 aDOT, nobody was really close to that, and is the obvious stacking candidate. I was on Dyami last week for DFS, but the the pendulum has swung to hard, don't be afraid of Zaccheaus, he played 69.5% of snaps last week, compared to browns 61%. I don't really want Ertz this week, he had a 7.5 aDOT, one of the lowest among the TEs last week, and his target share was the same at 12.5%. Br. Robinson/Ekeler are in a true 5050 split, and 12 to 15 opps, with a ppr floor isn't bad for bottom 5K range --- if you want to fade Daniels, I'd atleast consider Brian Robinson, who actually out targeted Ekeler last week too (although I know the script could favor Ekeler, I want to get leverage on the field)..
What do we do in the backfield? I still want Gibbs, but man I wish Montgomery was out. I think I am more inclined to attack the pass catchers in this one. Keep in mind this is the only game of the entire slate where we have no weather issues. LaPorta averaged 8 targets/g over his L4, and actually hasn't seen fewer than 6 in what seems like forever. I think he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate amongst TEs (even though I know the real answer is Kelce), he has the highest implied TT, and playing in the best conditions. I do think Jameson is playable, as a 7 target/g avg his L4 look good, but it really was on an 19~% target share, and his aDOT didn't even get into the 9's. I much rather ASB's 29~% target share, as I think there are salary saver options on this slate, so let me pay up here.
Sunday 2 Game Slate or Main Slate (Cont.)
LAR@PHI
Rams have a bad P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation (8th), and a bad pass potential (8th). Kyren has a bad rush potential (8th).
Hurts has a great pressure rate situation (2nd), but a meh pass potential (6th). Barkley has a good rush potential (3rd).
Rams TTR is 4th (meh) in the 2 game slate, and 7th in the main slate.
Eagles TTR is 3rd (good) in the 2 game slate, and 5th in main slate.
Pace of play is 3rd (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd by over 1 TD in 2 game slate, and 3rd in main slate.
- Puka finished as the 3rd best receiving option last week, as he had a big 34.6% target share, but his aDOT was very bad at 4. On DK you have to obviously consider him, but in 0.5 PPR leagues, I think I'd fade the ownership. Kupp had just 1 29 air yard target last week, but his price at 5.4K is sooo egregious, he is almost a must play, but I will note it is concerning he saw less snaps than Robinson/Johnson/Parkinson/etc, so I know there is a fear, but tourneys, take a chance. Higbee had a decent 20% target share despite a low snap total, and he is cheap at 3.4K, don't hate him in mass entries. I don't think I'd do any robinson, but if Johnson takes over this role he had a big 75% target share, and he is the min price, hello! The matchup is tough, but if you want to fade the pass catcher, we may have interest in Kyren, he is guaranteed bellow, with 20+ opp potential, and a safe target floor. They also priced him at his cheapest price since Wk2.
What I said about Kyren can be applied to Barkley, but with 30+ opp potential, last week he got to 27 opps, and 82% snap count and that game sat at 2+ possession almost throughout. The problem with the passing options is Hurts only had 21 pass attempts, how can we trust the WR options. They still combined for 40% of the targets (7 total), but do we want to pay a premium for that? PHI are almost a full TD favorite. I think LAR D, or Kyren stacked with the passing options makes some sense to be unique in mass entries, but that may be it for me. Goedert however was the #2 pass catcher of the slate last week among teams that advanced. He had a big 33.33% target share, he is not someone I love, but at 3.9K, you can do muchhh worse, I'd include him in your pool.
BAL@BUF
Ravens have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bills have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation (3rd), and a great pass potential (1st). Henry has a great rush potential (1st).
Allen has a great pressure rate situation (1st), and a good pass potential (3rd). Cook has a good rush potential (4th).
Ravens TTR is 1st (great) in the 2 game slate, and 2nd in the main slate.
Bills TTR is 2nd (good) in the 2 game slate, and T-3rd in the main slate.
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great) in the 2 game slate, and 2nd in the main slate.
- I'll post the weather chart below, but the frigid cold in this matchup would be a bump down to offenses (where PHI/LAR could be a slight bump up as the pass rush could be slowed down). My gut tells me to avoid this QBs, but we know they are capable of 4+ TDs, with some of them being on the ground (6 pts > 4 pts). I think I will mainly sprinkle the backfield in this one, but want to keep an eye on the weather before I consider the pass catchers, especially in BUF, even worse than KCC, who will be the productive one if there is one? and Allen/Cook have better rushing TD equity than Mahomes/Pacheco or Hunt, so it is even worse here. 6 WRs last week for BUF ranged between 34% (cooper), and 68% (Hollins). On the BAL side, Likely/Andrews combined for a 44% snap count, and had decent TE aDOTs of 9/7.3, I think they would be the ones I'd want if I go here.
Slates are into 2 game slates, but full weekend also plausible.
Saturday 2 Game Slate or Main Slate
HOU@KCC
Texans have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Chiefs have a meh P/RB matchup.
Stroud has a meh pressure rate situation (6th), and a bad pass potential (7th). Mixon has a bad rush potential (7th).
Mahomes has a good pressure rate situation (4th), but a meh pass potential (5th). Pacheco/Hunt have a meh rush potential (6th).
Texans TTR is 4th (bad) in 2 game slate, and 8th in main slate
Chiefs TTR is 2nd (good) in 2 game slate, and T-3rd in main slate.
Pace of play is 2nd (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd (meh/last) BY 2 FULL TDs in 2 game slate, and 4th/last in main slate.
- Mixon is a 20+ 100+ potential player with ppr floor, he is viable in any script. Among the 6 teams from last week, Collins had by far the best aDOT, 14.38 among any pass catcher with 4 or more targets., and this was in a game they led. He is obviously viable too. Metchie quielty had a 25% target share last week, despite playing just 48.5% of snaps, with Diontae (and his 21.5% of snaps) out, and Woods banged up, and a favorable script, I think he is an interesting salary saver play, just know if mass entering, don't forget about Hutchinson, as his ownership will be much less and he realistically has outcomes to a better game. Schultz had a good 10.5 aDOT last week, but I don't really want a party of the 12.5% target share, there's an argument that number obviously goes up, and KCC has been bad vs TEs, but I just like the other options more.
Mahomes L7~ weeks he has seen a pretty decent pass attempt number/volume, and he had a stretch of just 1 passing TD, if he gets to 3, which imo is absolutely doable, he could be the one we needed. He is 6th among the 8 QBs in pricing, which is wild to think about, but obviously makes sense when 4+~ above him have rushing floors that are nice. But who do we pair him with? Kelce is the obvious answer, and he tends to show up in a big way in the playoffs, I don't mind that, but if we nail the WR, you can get a big leg up on the competition. I got to think Hopkins gets unleashed a bit more, Hollywood should see a higher snap share too, but will both of these factors hurt Worthy? He had 4 straight weeks to end the season with over 80% of snaps, this was with the return of hollywood too, I have to go here, especially if his ownership is low. I am not playing Pacheco or Hunt, the 2 of them + perine have played between 19% and 48% (once) of snaps for 5 straight weeks, pass.
WAS@DET
Commanders have a meh RB matchup, bad P matchup.
Lions have a great P/RB matchup.
Daniels has a bad pressure rate situation (7th), but a good pass potential (4th). Br. Robinson/Ekeler have a meh rush potential (5th).
Goff has a meh pressure rate situation (5th), but a great pass potential (2nd). Gibbs/Montgomery?! have a great rush potential (2nd).
Commanders TTR is 3rd (good) in 2 game slate, and 6th in main slate.
Lions TTR is 1st (great) in 2 game slate, and 1st in main slate.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U Rank is 1st (great) in 2 game slate, and 1st in main slate.
- Daniels more than 3x'd this salary last week despite a game he only throw for 2 TDs (4pt), and his rushing total was one of his lowest totals. The script should be favorable, and is one of my favorite plays. McLaurin graded out as the #1 WR last week, with a 31.25% target share, and 11.4 aDOT, nobody was really close to that, and is the obvious stacking candidate. I was on Dyami last week for DFS, but the the pendulum has swung to hard, don't be afraid of Zaccheaus, he played 69.5% of snaps last week, compared to browns 61%. I don't really want Ertz this week, he had a 7.5 aDOT, one of the lowest among the TEs last week, and his target share was the same at 12.5%. Br. Robinson/Ekeler are in a true 5050 split, and 12 to 15 opps, with a ppr floor isn't bad for bottom 5K range --- if you want to fade Daniels, I'd atleast consider Brian Robinson, who actually out targeted Ekeler last week too (although I know the script could favor Ekeler, I want to get leverage on the field)..
What do we do in the backfield? I still want Gibbs, but man I wish Montgomery was out. I think I am more inclined to attack the pass catchers in this one. Keep in mind this is the only game of the entire slate where we have no weather issues. LaPorta averaged 8 targets/g over his L4, and actually hasn't seen fewer than 6 in what seems like forever. I think he has the highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate amongst TEs (even though I know the real answer is Kelce), he has the highest implied TT, and playing in the best conditions. I do think Jameson is playable, as a 7 target/g avg his L4 look good, but it really was on an 19~% target share, and his aDOT didn't even get into the 9's. I much rather ASB's 29~% target share, as I think there are salary saver options on this slate, so let me pay up here.
Sunday 2 Game Slate or Main Slate (Cont.)
LAR@PHI
Rams have a bad P/RB matchup.
Eagles have a good P matchup, meh RB matchup.
Stafford has a bad pressure rate situation (8th), and a bad pass potential (8th). Kyren has a bad rush potential (8th).
Hurts has a great pressure rate situation (2nd), but a meh pass potential (6th). Barkley has a good rush potential (3rd).
Rams TTR is 4th (meh) in the 2 game slate, and 7th in the main slate.
Eagles TTR is 3rd (good) in the 2 game slate, and 5th in main slate.
Pace of play is 3rd (meh). O/U Rank is 2nd by over 1 TD in 2 game slate, and 3rd in main slate.
- Puka finished as the 3rd best receiving option last week, as he had a big 34.6% target share, but his aDOT was very bad at 4. On DK you have to obviously consider him, but in 0.5 PPR leagues, I think I'd fade the ownership. Kupp had just 1 29 air yard target last week, but his price at 5.4K is sooo egregious, he is almost a must play, but I will note it is concerning he saw less snaps than Robinson/Johnson/Parkinson/etc, so I know there is a fear, but tourneys, take a chance. Higbee had a decent 20% target share despite a low snap total, and he is cheap at 3.4K, don't hate him in mass entries. I don't think I'd do any robinson, but if Johnson takes over this role he had a big 75% target share, and he is the min price, hello! The matchup is tough, but if you want to fade the pass catcher, we may have interest in Kyren, he is guaranteed bellow, with 20+ opp potential, and a safe target floor. They also priced him at his cheapest price since Wk2.
What I said about Kyren can be applied to Barkley, but with 30+ opp potential, last week he got to 27 opps, and 82% snap count and that game sat at 2+ possession almost throughout. The problem with the passing options is Hurts only had 21 pass attempts, how can we trust the WR options. They still combined for 40% of the targets (7 total), but do we want to pay a premium for that? PHI are almost a full TD favorite. I think LAR D, or Kyren stacked with the passing options makes some sense to be unique in mass entries, but that may be it for me. Goedert however was the #2 pass catcher of the slate last week among teams that advanced. He had a big 33.33% target share, he is not someone I love, but at 3.9K, you can do muchhh worse, I'd include him in your pool.
BAL@BUF
Ravens have a great RB matchup, good P matchup.
Bills have a meh P matchup, bad RB matchup.
Lamar has a good pressure rate situation (3rd), and a great pass potential (1st). Henry has a great rush potential (1st).
Allen has a great pressure rate situation (1st), and a good pass potential (3rd). Cook has a good rush potential (4th).
Ravens TTR is 1st (great) in the 2 game slate, and 2nd in the main slate.
Bills TTR is 2nd (good) in the 2 game slate, and T-3rd in the main slate.
Pace of play is 4th (meh). O/U Rank is 1st (great) in the 2 game slate, and 2nd in the main slate.
- I'll post the weather chart below, but the frigid cold in this matchup would be a bump down to offenses (where PHI/LAR could be a slight bump up as the pass rush could be slowed down). My gut tells me to avoid this QBs, but we know they are capable of 4+ TDs, with some of them being on the ground (6 pts > 4 pts). I think I will mainly sprinkle the backfield in this one, but want to keep an eye on the weather before I consider the pass catchers, especially in BUF, even worse than KCC, who will be the productive one if there is one? and Allen/Cook have better rushing TD equity than Mahomes/Pacheco or Hunt, so it is even worse here. 6 WRs last week for BUF ranged between 34% (cooper), and 68% (Hollins). On the BAL side, Likely/Andrews combined for a 44% snap count, and had decent TE aDOTs of 9/7.3, I think they would be the ones I'd want if I go here.
Last edited:
