Dapper Dan Picks - 2023/24 - Season Long Thread

DapperDan

DapperDan

Pretty much a regular
Dapper Dan Picks
NCAAF 2022 Season YTD: 56-62 (-18.86 units)
NCAAF 2023 Season YTD: 0-0

It’s football Season and it feels a lot like Christmas morning as a kid and the air is ripe with opportunity and will be every Saturday for the next 15+ weekends- don’t let anyone steal that joy from you. Gambling is not a vice, it is an expression of our humanness - all the evidence shows that God was a gambler and our very existence is a gamble - wager accordingly. The choice is ultimately yours. For those that are new - we provide a statistical analysis of college football picks and have done so for over a decade now - 7 of those seasons have been profitable, 4 have been losing seasons (last year was a loser) - overall we are up and we have never had two losing seasons in a row (do jinxes exist?) - all documented online (see totals/google sheets below). May fortune favor the bold and good luck to all who play this game of risk with the odds stacked against us Picks will be limited and write ups won’t be as thorough first few weeks until the statistics start to pile up ☮️❤. All lines/odds tracked through Betstamp app - message me for free texting service if you prefer.

NCAAF Week 0:
New Mexico State/UMass Under 46 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Both of these teams are in their 2nd year of new coaching staffs (some of the best coaches squaring off in this one - Jerry Kill and Don Brown!) where in the 1st year they both saw big improvements overall and especially on the defensive side of the ball. Don Brown, 2nd year head coach for UMass is the notorious defensive guru who spent years at Michigan after Durkin left (‘16-’20) where he led a Top 10 defense every season until his last year in 2020 where theVID regulations surely played a part in his one “poor” season. UMass returns 8 starters on defense (ranked 26th in % of total tackles returning) - that although wasn’t great last year- showed significant improvement from their 2021 form where they allowed 43 points and 485 yards per game - last year only allowing 31 points and 370 yards per game. Their offense returns mostly in-tact too with 7 returning starters and a few new additions but that’s not necessarily a good thing when you averaged 12 points per game last year. For NM State - Jerry Kill’s coaching presence can be seen in the numbers on a team that improved from going (2-10) in 2021 to (7-6) in 2022. His defense improved from 127th ranked in def ypp allowed to ranking 46th! Both teams love to run the ball ranking 7th and 16th in rushing play % so the clock will not stop much. UMass’s offense has an incredibly slow “pace of play” if you look at their TOP % is ranked 25th but their plays per game is ranked 82nd. (Anyone got any good websites that give you pace of play for college teams?). In last year’s matchup there were 36 total points as NMSU won by 10 but their offense really struggled - especially on 3rd down where they went 0-12 and old Don Brown really outschemed Jerry. This one should be a similarly low scoring game, especially since it’s the first game. Take the under.

Ohio +3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Ohio is entering its 3rd year with Tim Albin and their offense showed lots of improvement already last season and 9 starters return, ranked 3rd in % of yards returning including their seasoned veteran QB, Kurtis Rourke who impressively threw for over 3200 yards last year averaging 9.2 yards per attempt, and completed 69% of his passes with 25 TD’s and only 4 INT’s. He got hurt and missed the last 3 games and the bowl game which I think gives this team a little value. This experienced offense already ranked in the Top 40 of most FEI statistical categories should put up points even though SD State defense has proven to be one of the tougher units in the league (last year ranked 15th in ypp allowed) but only 6 of those starters and less than 50% of their total tackles return (ranking 92nd) . Their offense has been another story - averaging 21.5 points per game and ranked 100th in ypp. It won’t improve much this year with the same converted QB/Safety under center, Jalen Mayden (wjp and now a new first time OC, Ryan Lindley. They only return 6 starters on offense and are a much less experienced squad then Ohio. I think their offense will definitely struggle out of the gate and will struggle to keep up with Ohio who ultimately pulls away.

NCAAF Posted Records:
2012: 80-58 +22.3 units
2013: 96-97 +10.62 units
2014: 66-87 -27.55 units
2015: 82-54 +26.98 units
2016: 65-67 -5.37 units
2017: 74-66 +1.41 units
2018: 72-90 -20.19 units
2019: 70-68 +0.87 units
2020: 70-64 +1.63 units
2021: 89-63 +25.68 units
2022: 56-62 -18.86 units

Lifetime Total: 820-776 +17.52 units (51.37% win %)
DapperDan College Football Career Review
 
I been debating between umass tt under 18.5 or the game under 45. Kinda leaning umass tt but agree w the play. Gl this season
 

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DAPPER DAN PICKS​

NCAAF 2023 SEASON YTD: 0-2 (-2.3 UNITS)​

Thanks for the support fellas - Nothing like starting the season off with a starting QB getting injured in the 1st qtr and having an under where 23 points scored in the 1st three quarters (as planned) - only to have 48 points scored in the 4th qtr - all big blown plays or defensive TDs. Fortunately this isn't our first rodeo and we get back on the horse. If there’s one thing I’ve learned to be true in sports betting over the decade is your current emotional state is a big multiplier in the outcome of your results. So if things are going well in life then you're more likely to focus better, win more bets, and be successful. When you’re in a bad emotional state and things are not going well in life then the games tend to go sour too and you lose focus, make more emotional bets, and in consequence lose more bets. Thankfully this year I have been blessed with the greatest gift one could hope for in life and I am expecting my first baby girl to be born any day now before the football season so we are more happy, focused, and determined then ever and poised for another breakout season. Write-ups below and adds coming tmrw and Saturday.

NCAAF Week 1:
Utah ML (-200)
Minnesota -6 (-125)

Utah ML (-200) Risking 2 units to win 1 units
Revenge game here that Utah lost last season (and we had for a unit too) and expect the Utes to come out firing and pissed off at home after starting last season with a big L against the Gators. These are two different teams this year as Utah is returning one of the most experienced teams - ranking 28th overall in PS experience charts - a huge contrast from Florida’s 108th experience rankings. Even if Cameron Rising does not play, I think this Utah team has enough pieces around backup Bryson Barnes to run away with this game (was originally going to take the points but decided ML with the backup). They have the same 5th year OC, Andy Ludwig so their offense should really excel considering they have one of the most experienced offensive lines returning with 3 starters back and others with plenty of experience. Their starting RB, J Quinton Jackson transitioned from a QB position halfway through last season and ended the season taking the majority of their reps and averaging 6.81 yards per carry! They have a great two TE set, with Brant Kuthe and 6’5 giant Thomas Yassmin. Transfer CB Miles Batte and returning PAC 12 defensive freshman of the year - Lander Barton help make this team very well rounded on both sides of the ball.Their defensive line is deeper than ever thanks to many transfers from the PAC 12 all migrating to the team that took the title the last two years - aiming for a 3rd. Florida on the other hand is a different story as they welcome transfer QB Graham Mertz - a QB so mediocre and shitty that even with an amazing Whisky defense on the other side of the ball - still managed to get Paul Chryst fired after 8 seasons. He averaged a much less impressive 2000 yards per season and a 19:10 TD:INT last season and in 2021 throwing more INTs than TDs at 10:11. Last year Florida did not end on a good note - losing 5 of their last 7 games, including the Bowl game where they got blown out 3-30 by Oregon State. The Utes were the PAC12 Champion last season but never got an opportunity at the playoff contention due to the fact they lost their opening game to the Gators - one of the bottom teams in the SEC - so expect them to play with a chip on their shoulder at home this year coming out strong. Utah should win big but we take the ML to be safe in this uncertain world.

Minnesota -6 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
I'm a big fan of Athan Kaliakmanis - he’s a big guy who hangs in the pocket well and is patient enough to make the big throw with pressure in his face. Watch the Wisconsin game from last year and you’ll see him do that time and time again and that was as a freshman. This year he will have a strong receiving corps and operate an offense that is probably going to shift to a more pass-heavy style, as OC Kirk Ciarrocca departs and in house WR coach Matt Simon and TE coach Greg Harbaugh Jr are promoted to co-OC’s. Despite losing lots of talent, their defense should be top tier again as Joe Rossi returns for his 5th year and has had a hell of a defense almost every season with Minnesota. Nebraska has a lot of buzz around the hiring of Matt Rhule - but a closer look at his program turnarounds show that it took some time to develop and implement his schemes - at Temple he went 2-10 his first season as head coach, at Baylor his first year he went 1-11. I don’t think this team will fare well with QB transfer Jeff Sims from Gtech - his 2022 highlight reel can be seen in under 5 min on youtube, most of which he’s running or has a wide open receiver - what happened to his other 400+ minutes on the field? A whole lot of nothing. He has a slow delivery and is inaccurate - he took 19 sacks last season - a very high number considering he only had 188 pass attempts - of which he only completed 58% and had 5 TDs and 3 INT’s in 7 games. I think Minnesota wins this handedly and buy it down to 6 if you can.
 
Hate to see opposite old Brass Knux on some of these - had these locked in before I read his writeups.

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: 1-1 (-.25 units)
Season YTD: 1-3 (-2.55 units)

Week 1 Adds:
California -5.5 (-115) 1.5x
UTSA ML (-125) 1.5x
Virginia tech -15.5 (-108)
Wash/Boise State Over 58.5 (-102)
Boston College -7 (-130)
Toledo +10 (-125)
Toledo ML (+308) .25x

Week 1 Adds:
California -5.5 (-115) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
My favorite bet of the weekend but only 1.5x units, will go up to 2 unit max bets when the season gets rolling. Cal has one of the most experienced teams returning - ranking 12th in PS’s differential exp rankings - they come back especially experienced on defense (13th rank of total tackles% returning) so you can expect defensive minded Justin Wilcox’s defense to improve from last year. Last year they had less than 20% of their team seniors and had the 4th most starting freshman in college ball. Wilcox knows how to develop a good defense and has been doing it in college ball for almost 2 decades now all over the PAC12. To fix things on offense, they get a new OC, Jake Spavital who I am a big fan of as he’s coached some of the best QBs in college football - including Manziel, Kyler Murray and Geno Smith and worked under some great offensive minds. As an offensive coordinator, Spavital has piloted offenses on teams that finished in the top 20 in the country in total offense six times, reached seven bowl games, and earned a spot in the AP Top 25 in seven different seasons. He spent the last 4 years at Texas State as a HC but struggled and now he’s going to be Wilcox’s play caller and bring a completely new offensive look to this team. He will debut a new QB Sam Jackson V who’s a true dual threat QB and brings a new edge to the Cal offense. Ironically enough, Cal’s new offensive line coach and run game coordinator, Mike Bloesch, spent the past three seasons as North Texas’ offensive coordinator so he will be able to give them plenty of insight into their offensive schemes. Returning sophomore RB Jaydn Ott is one hell of a runner and nearly got to 1000 yards in his first season as a freshman and averaged 5.3 ypc. Not only did Green Men lose a lot of their experience ranking 75th in PS’s differential charts - they are bringing in all new coaches without much Power 5 experience. Cal had 6 four-star recruits in 2021 (ad 1 last year), UNT has had 0 in the last 5 years. Cal should win this one easily.

UTSA ML (-125) Risking 1.73 units to win 1.5 units
Another huge experience mismatch in a revenge game that a UTSA team has circled as they had Houston beat 21-7 going into 4th qtr but then let them back in it and ended up losing in triple OT, despite out gaining Houston by 100 yards total yards. Houston ranks 103rd in exp charts this season while UTSA ranks 13th. I love their head coach - Jeff Traylor is a disciple of Chad Morris - one of my favorite innovative offensive minded coaches. He has one conference USA coach of the year the last two years and has gone 23-5 in those two seasons. Houston on the other hand lost it’s play-caller and head coach Dana Holgerson will take over the play calling. He has the same DC, Doug Belk, who took over the sole DC spot last year and gave up 32 points per game. Despite having 7 starters on defense return - they actually lose 8 of their top 9 tacklers! Their defense should continue to struggle this season and I think UTSA goes on the road and smashes Houston to kick off their season. This is my other favorite bet of the weekend and 1.5x units

V-tech -15.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Revenge game here as ODU upset Vtech last year to start the season but ODU is not the same team as they rank 130th in experience rankings, and lost a ton of players to the transfer portal including their starting QB for the last two seasons. Also look at the recruiting as over the last two years, ODU only got 27 three star recruits. Vtech has pulled almost double with 47 three star recruits and 4 four star recruits over the last two years. I always liked Brent Pry’s defenses at Penn State and think he can only improve with 7 returning starters in his 2nd year as a HC. Hopefully Kyron Drones takes over the starting QB role as Grant Wells has never looked great. There should be some ATS value in Vtech if their team can improve, the market is certainly down on them as they have gone 13-20 ATS in the last 3 years.

Wash/Boise State Over 58.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Both of these teams' offenses come back nearly entirely intact and both defenses are losing more than half their starters - although neither defense was particularly good last season so no reason to expect that to improve with all the lost experience at that side of the ball. First about their offenses - Washington had one of their best offensive performances under new HC Kalen Deboer averaging 39 points per game and have experienced starting QB Penix Jr back who should continue to lead this offense to a lot of points and big plays. Although Boise State's offense wasn't great last year - it should improve with 9 returning starters and sophomore Taylen Green at QB with a year of experience under his belt after taking over the starting role last season after Hank Bachmeier hit the transfer portal. Green is a true runner that looks to improve his passing game but he can definitely do some damage on the grounds where he racked up 586 yards on the ground last season for an average of 7.23 yards - he ran for over 100 yards in 3 games, including the Bowl Game. On defense they have 3rd year DC, Spencer Danielson who has been with the program for a while but the last two years he had more than 8 returning starters each season, this year he only has 5 and expect Boise’s defense to drop off from the 19 ppg they allowed the last two years. They are the type to dominate the weaker teams in their conference but struggle against the better offenses and Washington is one of them. Let’s hope for a shootout!

Boston College -7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Despite the horrible season last year, I think Jeff Hafley can turn this team around. Everything starts at the line of scrimmage and this was one of the worst blocking teams in history last year. Hafley brought in a few transfers to help their line and rank 8th in starting experience of their O-line. Starting QB, Phil Jurkovec is gone who has battled injuries the last two years and couldn’t do much last season without much blocking. Emmet Morehead took over the starting role at the end of the season and has much more experience in his 2nd year. They should be a much more run-heavy team this year and brought in a new offensive analyst Rob Chudzinski who has been coaching in NFL/college level for a over 25 years and was offensive coordinator for the Miami Hurricanes back in 2001-03’ when they dominated college football. Hafley is one hell of a recruiter and managed to get 6 four star recruits and 42 three start recruits in the last 2 years. A huge difference of what Thomas Hammock can do at NIU with only 15 three start recruits last season. Their coaching staff I have as one of the lowest rated in the league and has been almost entirely the same for the last 5 years. They gave up 33 points per game on defense last year against much weaker competition then Boston College. Sagarin SOS has BC’s team last year with the 49th strongest schedule and NIU at 109th so this team has had much tougher competition over the years as you would expect in Power 5 vs Group of 5. Boston College blows this team out (buy to 7 to be safe)

Toledo +10 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Toledo ML (+308) Risking .25 units to win .75 units
The biggest mismatch on the experience chart on paper with Toledo outranking Illinois by 105 ranks in experience this year. Jason Candle has been very consistent over the last 5 years and brings back the same coaching staff to a very solid team last with 8 returning starters on both sides of the ball and rank 11th in exp charts. On the other side we have Bret Bielema entering his 3rd year, his 1st year he really struggled (5-7) but turned around a bit last year going (8-5). Their biggest strength was their defense but this defense is going to look very different because not only is their play caller Ryan Walters gone (left for Purdue) but they only have 6 starters returning and 50% of their total tackles (ranking 88th). On offense they have brought in transfer Luke Altmyer to lead the team at QB. He has never had any significant starting experience and despite being the guy brought in at Ole Miss in blowouts the last two years - career stats are pretty poor - with 1:1 TD/INT ratio and completing only 52% for 5.9 ypa. They will also have to figure out a way to fill the void of starting RB Chase Brown who accounted for almost 2000 total yards last year. I love the fact that Toledo is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and Illinois 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games giving us value. This one will be close but don’t be surprised if Candle pulls of the upset so we sprinkle that in for a quarter unit!
 
NCAAF Week 1:
Utah ML (-200) W
Minnesota -6 (-125) L
California -5.5 (-115) 1.5x W
UTSA ML (-125) 1.5x L
Virginia tech -15.5 (-108) W
Wash/Boise State Over 58.5 (-102) W
Boston College -7 (-130) L
Toledo +10 (-125) W
Toledo ML (+308) .25x L

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 1: 5-4 (+0.97 units)
Season YTD: 5-6 (-1.21 units)

More to come tmrw.

Week 2:
Kansas/Illinois over 56.5 (-108)
Kansas ML (-154) .5x
Utah -6 (-125)
UCF ML (-154)

Kansas ML (-154) Risking .77 units to win .5 units
Kansas/Illinois over 56.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
This is mostly the same Kansas team from last year that hit overs at a 70% rate last year. They are ranked #1 in experience charts with nearly all of their % of yards gained returning and % of tackles returning. Their defense was very exploitable last year, ranking 104th in PFF defensive ranks. In their first game they did not grade out too well against Missouri State ranking 120th in tackling. Illinois is a very inexperienced team and rank 88th in % of total tackles returning. They will not be ready for this Kansas assault that Lance Leopold has done a heck of a job in putting together - even if starting QB Daniels is out (but will most likely return) backup QB Bean has shown capable of stepping right in and leading the offense well. Luke Altmyer was very impressive in his opener against Toledo, completing 70% of his passes and rushing for 60 yards on the ground in crucial moments when he needed to keep the drive alive - Kansas’s defense was very vulnerable to mobile QB’s last year. I think Kansas ultimately pulls away in the end in a shoot-out but could be close so we take the ML for half unit but I think the experience will prevail.


Utah -6 (-125)
Locked in early as square as can be after Baylor got upset last week and Utah with the big win but since starting Baylor QB, Shapen is out I think this is an easy winner as Sawyer Thompson doesn’t seem like a suitable backup.

UCF ML (-154) Risking 1.54 units to win 1 units
It’s my alma mater with one of my favorite coaches and fastest QB’s in the league in their 3rd year together with a very experienced team. I will try not to bet them too much but I love watching this team. They rank 9th overall in experience - 34th with % yards returning, 31st in % of tackles returning, and 15th in offensive lineman total starts. They are much more experienced then Boise State that ranks 52nd overall in experience charts and really struggled on both sides of the ball last week against Washington. (Granted defense was expected but their offense put up some horrible PFF numbers as well - ranking #119th overall, 119th in passing, 131st in receiving, 52 in run game and 107th in run blocking. They even struggled in special teams, ranking 130th in the league after week 1. I really like UCF’s new offensive coordinator, Darrin Hinshaw who has a long history of success as a co-offensive coordinator at a few programs - his offenses were Top 25 in ypp at Cinn from ‘14-’15 and at UAB last year ranking 14th overall. He was the leading passer for the Knights back in the 90’s and obviously Malzahn sees some potential in him as he hired him back from UAB after he was an offensive analyst for UCF in 2021 and left in 2022. UCF should win big and I think they have a great season.
 
Thanks BAR - writeups will be better as we get more stats - I'm pissed though FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS has dissolved . LINE YARDS were important stat that I tracked....shiiiiiiiii

Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 2: 2-0 (+1.5 units)
Season YTD: 7-6 (+0.29 units)

Week 2 Adds: Turned out to be a big card and a teaser!
Vandy/WF Under 30.5 [1st Half] (-110)
Iowa State +4.5 (-125)
TexasAM/Miami Over 50.5 (-110)
Tulsa +34 (-111)
Ohio/FAU Over 60.5 (-110)
Pitt/Cinn Over 45 (-110) 1.5x
Texas +7.5 (-111)
California +7 (-130)
[2 Team 6 pt Teaser] Rutgers -2 and Ole Miss -1 (-120)

Vandy/WF Under 30.5 [1st Half] (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I’m tired of getting my unders busted in the 2nd half with BS so I’m taking one of my first ever first half unders - hopefully a small tweak this season to improve my overall win%. I love how Bronco Mendenhall DC teamed up with Clark Lea HC for Vanderbilt, two great defensive minded coaches who will surely see a big improvement from last years 36 ppg allowed in their first year together. They have 8 returning starters on defense. They will have to stop a Wake Forest team that lost Sam Hartman and the majority of their offensive production from last year. Bronco loves to bring pressure and havoc which spells disaster for this slow mesh offense. New starting QB Mitch Griffis doesn’t have nearly the quick release that Hartman had. For Vandy, an underwhelming AJ Swann starts again at QB this season after the better QB, Mike Wright who led Vandy to some key upsets in Kentucky and UF last year transfers to greener pastures. In games that Swann started last year - they averaged much less ppg then when Wright started including a couple goose eggs in UGA, Bama, and Tenn. I think this is a low scoring game and will take both teams a while to get going so we take the 1st half under.

Iowa State +4.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Love getting this many points at home - especially when Iowa’s offense looks as bad as it did in Week 1 only getting 88 yards on 36 carries against Utah State. Stack the box against Iowa and make them throw. Chances are Cade McNamara will not beat you with his arm - last week he was 3 of 11 when throwing to his receivers - a struggle Iowa is used to. Iowa State has a much better secondary with TJ Tampa and Jeremiah Cooper who snagged two INTs last week and should have a field day against Iowa’s soft receivers that ranked 110th in PFF in their first game. I’ll take my chances with new freshman QB Rocco Becht. He has an experienced team around him with 9 returning starters on offense. Head coach for Iowa State - Matt Campbell is coming off his 2nd losing season in 13 years as a head coach - expect his team to bounce back and perform over .500 this year and have his team ready to keep it close with their in-state rivals at home. Campbell is 26-13 ATS as a dog and I think his team is being undervalued again in this matchup after last year's poor team performance.

TexasAM/Miami Over 50.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
A pick I had circled early on and it seems like all the cappers I follow are buzzing about this one. Despite only having 26 total points in last year's matchup, these are 2 different offenses with 2 new playcallers. The Pass heavy - big play Petrino is calling the plays for TexasAM and has a ton of talent back with 10 returning starters on offense - starting QB Weigman started 4 of the last 5 games last year, where he had decent numbers as a true freshman. He knows how to operate the RPO well and move through his progressions - and all 4 of the teams leading receivers from last year return and bring a new dynamic true fresh Evan Stewart who’s been all the talk in spring. On the other side Miami has a ton of returning talent that was underutilized last season, including starting QB Tyle Van Dyke who looked great in his opener. New OC Shannon Dawson has been calling plays in college football for 20 years including Houston and Southern Miss before that - he should bring a new wrinkle to this offense that struggled last year and see some production as Cristobal is desperate to win at his alma mater.

Tulsa +34 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This is just too many points for a Washington team that beat down a really crappy Boise State team last week so the oddsmakers are overcompensating. Granted Tulsa is bringing in a whole new team, but I love their coaching staff with Kevin Wilson the OC from Ohio State the last 6 seasons. He has a young freshman QB Cardell Williams who had 1 incompletion last week and averaged 16 yards per attempt. The UW defense isn’t all that great, like I wrote about in last week’s writeup where I had the over in their game - in PFF their defense graded out quite poorly - ranking 71st overall, 58th in coverage, 62nd in run stopping and 116th in tackling. Worst case we get a back door but I think Tulsa can keep this game within 4 TD’s and use some trickery to put up points as Kevin Wilson looks to prove his worth away from Ohio State.

Pitt/Cinn Over 45 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Biggest bet of the weekend, I love this over and it’s contrary to how these two teams have played the last few years with low scoring games but I expect them both to put up points in this one. The defensive mastermind Luke Fickell is gone from Cincinnati and so is the majority of their defense with only 40% of their tackles returning - ranking 117th. Despite beating E. Kentucky 66-13 in week 1, Cinn struggled on defense according to PFF as they graded out to a 74th overall defensive ranking after week 1. Scott Satterfield brings in an all new offense with veteran QB Emory Jones who can rack up some yards on the ground too and put up 66 in their first game together. On the other side of the ball I like a Pitt offense that returns 7 starters and welcomes new QB transfer Phil Jurkovec from BC. Phil had a great 2020 at BC but then got injured in 2021 and looked like he came back a little too early and had absolutely no protection last year and struggled the last 2 years at BC so he transferred to Pitt - I actually really liked him when he was healthy although he’s awkward- he hangs in the pocket well and knows how to run downfield. Last week they put up 45 against their FCS opponent. Granted both teams won’t put up that many but I’m confident both teams can put up 21+ in this matchup and go over the total.

Ohio/FAU Over 60.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
First one to 40 points and the ball last win in this game. In last years matchup, there was 80 total points and despite Ohio only averaging 20 points in it’s first two games - that was without starting QB Rourke who went to the sidelines in the 1 qtr against SD state but is expected to return as well as two WR’s for this Ohio offense to return to form to last years 31 ppg average. FAU returns 8 starters on offense and gets a huge upgrade at QB position with Casey Thompson taking over instead of the awful N’Kosi Perry. New HC for FAU Tom Herman has brought in a lot of new transfers as well to supplement this offense that averaged 30 ppg last year. Their defense returns 10 starters too but allowed 26 points per game themselves. Last year they ranked 88th in overall defense in PFF, 71st in coverage, and 114th in tackling. Both teams love to score and this is one of those obvious shoot-outs that the odds makers can’t set a number high enough.

Texas +7.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Revenge game here where Alabama lost the majority of its team (again) and ranks 127th in experience charts. They also bring in two new coordinators - I’m a huge fan of DC Kevin Steele but OC Tommy Reese has yet to be tested. They will be facing off against a Texas team with 10 returning starters on offense and Steve Sarkisian who is well versed with Alabama football as he used to call plays there in ‘19-’20 and will pull out all the stops to take down Saban and keep this one close. In last year's matchup Texas had the lead going into the 4th qtr but Bama scored a TD late and squeaked out a 1 point victory. In that game, Texas lost starting QB Quinn Ewers in the 1st qtr on a late roughing the passer hit and he surely hasn’t forgotten and has this revenge game on the road circled on his calendar - this will be a one possession game.

[2 Team 6 pt Teaser] Rutgers -2 and Ole Miss -1 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Bringing back the teasers - they will be few and far between but looking back at my first seasons posting in ‘12-13 I had a lot more teasers but steered away from them bc most 3rd party tracking services don’t offer it but fugggit. First one in a couple years posting - It’s a good one both teams should win handedly.

California +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Buy up to 7 - no write-up sorry - huge card and this is a sweet looking night cap to a long day! Been up all night thinking and reading about these games - let’s win.
 
Dapper Dan Picks
Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
Season YTD: 15-9 (+5.22 units)

No writeups this week - sorry very busy and will most likely be a small card as not a lot of good matchups - back with more tmrw morning!

Week 3:
Tennessee -6 (-110) 1.5x
UVA/Maryland over 47.5 (-105)
 
DapperDan said:
Dapper Dan Picks
Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
Season YTD: 15-9 (+5.22 units)

No writeups this week - sorry very busy and will most likely be a small card as not a lot of good matchups - back with more tmrw morning!

Week 3:
Tennessee -6 (-110) 1.5x
UVA/Maryland over 47.5 (-105)
Click to expand...
Nice over in Maryland...

Getting hot Dan ... getting hot!
 
Thanks BAR! Crazy how streaky all cappers can be

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 16-9 (+6.22 units)

Week 3 Adds:
Syracuse ML (-113) Risking 1.7 units to win 1.5 units
Illinois/Penn State Over 47.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Rutgers -6.5 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
UMass +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 untis to win 1 units
Iowa State ML (-126) Risking 1.26 units to win 1 units
[2 Team 6.5 pt Teaser] Arkansas -1.5 and SJ State +14 (-130)
Tenn -6 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units (Posted yesterday)
 
Against ya on vols but I wouldn’t have the opposite side of any the others. Think I’ll prob join you on Rutgers as a few guys I respect playing them and I’m never against fading vtech!! Gl bro
 
Dapper Dan Picks
Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
Week 3: (4-5) -1.93 units
Season YTD: 19-14 (+3.29 units)

Great News: My little baby girl Isabella Joli was born this week 9/18/23. Although it hasn’t left me much time for football numbers this week so I won’t be posting any write-ups again this week (but will 100% be back with write-ups next week) - I do have one play and write-up for today and the rest of the card will come out tmrw morning but doubt I have the time to make write-ups for all of them but this one tonight was a piece of cake so wrote it up real quick.

Week 4:
San Jose State +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
This is a beautiful SOS mismatch no matter who’s scales you use - I like Sagarin and it shows San Jose State having the 11th strongest schedule to date with Air Force a horrible 186th! Air Force has basically had two FCS opponents - one they only won by 10 where SJ State has faced off against USC, Oregon State and Toledo (the latter two are looking impressive) - competition matters. These two coaches have been at each other's programs for so many years they have faced off twice back in 2019 and 2020. The first game Air Force one but the 2nd matchup San Jose State won outright as a 7 point dog. SJ State’s QB Chevan Cordeiro has seen his share of starts with almost 1500 passing attempts in his 6th year, in contrast Air Force’s QB Zach Larrier is a 4th year senior who only has 10 pass attempts in his career as he was always a backup at AF being outplayed in practive only to finally take over this year - which he has an easy ride thus far. I think they keep this one close at home on a Friday night!
 
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DapperDan said:
Dapper Dan Picks
Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
Week 3: (4-4) -0.81 units
Season YTD: 19-13 (+4.41 units)

Great News: My little baby girl Isabella Joli was born this week 9/18/23. Although it hasn’t left me much time for football numbers this week so I won’t be posting any write-ups again this week (but will 100% be back with write-ups next week) - I do have one play and write-up for today and the rest of the card will come out tmrw morning but doubt I have the time to make write-ups for all of them but this one tonight was a piece of cake so wrote it up real quick.

Week 4:
San Jose State +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
This is a beautiful SOS mismatch no matter who’s scales you use - I like Sagarin and it shows San Jose State having the 11th strongest schedule to date with Air Force a horrible 186th! Air Force has basically had two FCS opponents - one they only won by 10 where SJ State has faced off against USC, Oregon State and Toledo (the latter two are looking impressive) - competition matters. These two coaches have been at each other's programs for so many years they have faced off twice back in 2019 and 2020. The first game Air Force one but the 2nd matchup San Jose State won outright as a 7 point dog. SJ State’s QB Chevan Cordeiro has seen his share of starts with almost 1500 passing attempts in his 6th year, in contrast Air Force’s QB Zach Larrier is a 4th year senior who only has 10 pass attempts in his career as he was always a backup at AF being outplayed in practive only to finally take over this year - which he has an easy ride thus far. I think they keep this one close at home on a Friday night!
Click to expand...
Congrats on your baby girl, Dan! That's a beautiful name - enjoy every minute of it!
 
congrats buddy, daughters are the best, until they hit a certain age and turn into the worst!! Then after your hair all grey and/or has fallen out usually it gets better again!! lol
 
Thanks everyone! Looking forward to parent hood

Sorry late post

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 19-15 (+2.04 units)

Week 4 adds:
FSU ML (-117) Risking 2.34 units to win 2 units
Kentucky -12.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Tulsa +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Ole Miss +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Utah -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Miss. State +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
ND +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Cal +21 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 nits
2 Team 6.5 pt Teaser - Kansas -2.5 and Syracuse -6.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
 
Dan!!! Congrats on your beautiful baby girl!!!! That's the most important of things, but I hope you know how much your contributions are appreciated.
 
Thanks Brass Good luck tonight - although I'm against you and sticking with the Utes....

Dapper Dan Picks
Week 0: (0-2) -2.3 units
Week 1: (5-4) +.97 units
Week 2: (10-3) +6.55 units
Week 3: (4-5) -1.93 units
Week 4: (6-3) +3.4 units
Season YTD: 25-17 (+6.69 units)

Just one for tonight. Good luck all will be up late crunching numbers all night long into the morning - lots of interesting matchups.


Week 5:
Utah +4.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Okay I’ll bite. This is a rare occurrence where we have two coaches who have been with their programs for a while and have faced off the last 4 years in a row where Utah has won 3 out of the 4 games (and dominated two of them including last years). All the numbers I look at show strong advantages to Utah with a stronger strength of schedule with Utah ranking 26th and Oregon St ranking 69 according to Sagarin. Utah is also the much more experienced team, with a differential ranking of 34th compared to 80th of Oregon State from PS’s exp charts. The best thing about this Utah team is their defense ranking 35th overall in PFF, 32nd in coverage, and 26th in the pass rush. This could be a problem for DJ Uiagalelei who struggled with pressure at Clemson and the Oregon State offensive line is ranked 82nd in pass blocking. Utah’s rush defense has been even more stout - allowing only 1.7 yards per carry on the season ranking 2nd. Oregon State’s defense has been mediocre as it usually is ranking 47th overall in PFF, 59th in coverage, and 13th against the run. Their rushing defense is a bit of a ruse as they haven’t played any tough running teams like this Utah front who averaged 5.2 yards per carry against Oregon State last year when they blew them out by 26. Oregon State’s secondary ranks 114th in completion % allowed, 97th in yards per pass allowed, and 85th in defensive passing efficiency. Huge edge to Utah. We also have the team that has the better turnover margin per game, less penalties per play, and is one of the best at the possession game - ranking 8th in the nation that is a struggle of the Beavers who rank 78th in TOP%. We also have a huge edge in tackling as Utah ranks 8th and Oregon State ranks 73rd in true PAC 12 fashion. If we get Rising back there’s good odds we should win outright but we’ll take the points just in case he sits again.


Week 4 Results:
SJ State +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units L
FSU ML (-117) Risking 2.34 units to win 2 units W
Kentucky -12.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units W
Tulsa +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W
Ole Miss +7.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units L
Utah -3 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units W
Miss. State +7 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units P
ND +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units W
Cal +21 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 nits L
2 Team 6.5 pt Teaser - Kansas -2.5 and Syracuse -6.5 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units W
 
Dapper Dan Picks
Season YTD: 25-18 (+5.58 units)

Week 5 Adds:
Kentucky ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Arkansas +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
California -12.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Illinois ML (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
Baylor +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Duke +6 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
Pitt ML (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Kansas +17 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
NIU/Toledo Under 48.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
2 team 6 pt teaser- Clemson -1 and Minnesota -5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units

Kentucky ML (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
After being dominated for decades in this rivalry, Kentucky has won the last two years and I think they have the better squad again this year despite not having played much competition yet this season. In the few soft games UK has played they have dominated the line of scrimmage, allowing only 2.3 ypc and averaging 5.6 ypc themselves. UF only ran for 13 yards against Utah in week 1 and averaged 3.17 ypc last week against Charlotte. Graham Mertz is not a game changing QB and will need much more support. He really struggles under pressure and is currently ranked #104th in QB sack %. Kentucky’s secondary is good enough to match up on the outside with Florida’s receivers allowing Brad White to dial up some exotic blitzes and stack the box. Brad White has done a great job since being promoted to DC in 2019 and had his best year last year ranking 37th in ypp allowed - he has 60% of his total tackles returning from last year. They currently rank 12th in coverage in PFF, #12 in ypp allowed, and 33rd in defensive passing efficiency. Devin Leary is an experienced QB who has plenty of weapons and the better team at home - I think they win.

Duke +6 (-120) Risking 2.4 units to win 2 units
My favorite bet of the weekend. This is just too many points in what will be a close hard fought game. Both defenses have been stellar - with Duke ranking 1st in coverage in PFF and defensive passing efficiency, #2 in ypp allowed. Duke is one of the most experienced returning teams this year ranking 3rd in Phil Steeles exp chart and Riley Leonard has developed nicely, ranking 20th in passing PFF and seems impossible to tackle as he averages 8.2 ypc. We also have the team with the much better FG %, TO margin, and penalties per play. Notre Dame just had a disappointing hard fought loss to Ohio State in the final seconds and will be without it’s 2nd leading WR.

Arkansas +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Most people I see are on Texas AM but I don’t know why - especially without Connoir Weigmann who took the majority of the snaps at QB and is now out for the season. This is just too many points? Buy to 7 - is this a trap? Texas AM has really struggled with pass blocking, ranking 9th in PFF and that is the one strength of this Arkansas defense as the rank 20th in the pass rush. We also have a big edge in tackling as Arkansas ranks 36th and Texas AM ranks 123rd. The PFF numbers are nearly identical so I’ll take the touchdown with the more experienced QB at home.

California -12.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
This is an easy one to notice on my spreadsheets - lights up all in favor of Cal. The PFF #’s show Cal’s defense has an average differential of 56 ranks across all positional categories against ASU’s offense. For Cal’s offense the differential is 40 ranks across all categories. The FEI/F+/YPP differentials all show huge mismatches as well. Who is even going to start for Arizona State with all these injuries? Cal should win in blowout fashion.

Kansas +17 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Bought the half point - this is just too many points as the experienced Kansas team comes to avenge last years beat down at home.

Illinois ML (+100) Risking 1 unit to win 1 units
I love getting the better defense and my spreadsheet shows pretty solid edges to Illinois so we’ll take this pick’em. Purdue’s defense is one of the worst in the league ranking 107th overall, 108th in the pass rush, 89th in coverage, 104th in rush defense, and 124th in tackling. Huge edge to Illinois who rank 67th overall, 92nd in pass rush, 69th in coverage, 44th in rush defense, and 36th in tackling. Illinois’s biggest struggle on offense has been protecting Altmyer but the 108th ranked pass rush is not a strength of Purdue’s defense. I think Illinois has played a much harder schedule too and Sagarin agrees that they are also the better team, ranking 57th over Purdue's 75th ranking. Purdue has won the last 3 years in a row but now they have a new coaching staff and I think Illinois sneaks out a win on the road.

Baylor +9 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
As bad as Baylor’s defense has been it’s been against some very tough offenses and they are finally going to get Blake Shapen back at QB which is the whole life of their offense so their defense should finally get some rest and keep this one close. UCF’s backup QB Timmy McClain has had a pretty bad history going back to 2021 as a starter at USF he only won two games and had more INTs then TDs - completing only 55%. I really like this one too.

Pitt ML (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Both teams have been pretty awful by the numbers but again we have the better defense in a pick-em and I also like Narduzzi and his staff a lot more then Virginia tech’s. Pitt’s defense ranks 54th overall, 69th in pass rush, 71st in coverage and 35th against the run. Virginia Tech’s defense is much worse ranking 103rd overall, 92nd in coverage and 117th in rush defense. Pitt also has had a harder schedule ranking 31st in SOS and 58th in Sagarin ratings while Vtech ranks 54th in SOS and 86th overall. Last week Pitt’s starting QB Jurkovec got knocked out of the game so he should be back and I think they will run all over Vtech regardless.

NIU/Toledo Under 48.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Lombardi has not been the same QB since returning and we have HUGE mismatches in the FEI/F+/ and PFF in favor of the defenses but unfortunately I have no time for this writeup this week - check out the BCFtoys as Football outsiders is gone now but you will see huge mismatches in favor of both defenses.

2 team 6 pt teaser- Clemson -1 and Minnesota -5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
No write-ups for teasers - out of time but I think both these teams can win easily
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 5: 3-8 (-7.36 units)
Season YTD: 28-25 (-0.67 units)

Rough week last week - injured starting QBs, bad beats and bad bets. Bounce back time we put the work in this week early. More to come tmrw morning - this what we got locked in so far.

Week 6:
LSU/Missouri Over 62.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Rutgers +14.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
NC State/Marshal Under 45.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Miami -20 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Old Dominion +2.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units

Rutgers +14.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Rutgers is one of my fav teams this year - already 4-0-1 ATS thanks to their defense (AND COACHING). Wisconsin defense has definitely dropped off this year since losing the majority of their coaching staff last year. Wisconsin’s defense has been getting gashed on the ground - ranking 104th in rushing defense PFF and 108th in tackling. Rutgers loves to run the ball down your throat, running the ball 63.4% of the time and averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Rutgers defense has been well rounded - ranking #15 in ypp allowed, #30th in rush ypp allowed, and #14th in passing ypp allowed. In PFF they are ranked 29th overall on defense (compared to Wiscy’s 59th) and 3rd in tackling. Their defense that allowed far too many big plays last year has fixed that issue and rank 19th in defensive plays allowed over 10 yards. We are also the much more disciplined team as Rutgers is ranked #18th in penalties per play where Wiscy is ranked #77th. I love getting Rutgers and this many points would be two units but Wiscy has had a much tougher SOS schedule to date so only 1 unit.

LSU/Missouri Over 62.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
This matchup lights up green on my spreadsheets so there are strong advantages to the offense in every category. In PFF LSU’’s offense outranks Missouri’s defense by an average of 32 ranks across all positional categories. Missouri’s offense outranks LSU’s defense by an average of 53 ranks - more than LSU’s mismatch. In FEI - both teams' offense outranks the defense by an average of 55+ ranks across all categories. In long scrimmage plays of 30 + yards - LSU ranks 3rd in the nation and Missouri ranks 28th. In long scrimmage plays allowed (defense) - LSU ranks 112th and although Missouri is 27th, their schedule has been much easier and I think they’re about to give up a bunch of big plays in this matchup. Very few times do you have PFF, FEI, and F+ all match up for the over and this is one of them. Score at will.

NC State/Marshal Under 45.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Try to keep this one short and sweet - Marshall loves to run the ball (58% of the time) but that is the strength of this NC State team that ranks 15th in PFF in rush defense and 27th in tackling. NC State’s PFF numbers on offense are pretty horrible and a big mismatch against Marshall’s defense - although against weaker competition - they rank 11th in overall defense, 39th in pass rush, 15th in coverage, and 35th in rush defense. FEI numbers show strengths to both defenses with NC State’s by an average of 16 ranks across all categories and Marshal’s defense by an average of 85 ranks across all categories! Both defenses are in the top 20% of D-FEI and both offenses are in the bottom 20% of O-FEI’s - take the under.

Miami -20 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
I’m a hurricane and this is our year. Miami’s offense is the 2nd best team in the nation at plays over 10 yards. Georgia Tech’s defense is 107th worst at allowing plays over 10 yards on defense. Miami’s NPP this season is 6th best in the nation, a huge differential from Georgia Tech’s 67th ranking. Miami should really score at will according to FEI they outrank Gtech’s defense across all categories by almost 100 rankings. PFF Ranks show a lot more of the same mismatches with Gtech’s offense struggling in pass blocking - ranking 56th where Miami’s defense has thrived ranking 4th in the nation. Miami’s run defense has been even better, ranking 2nd in the nation and 14th in tackling. Gtech’s defense is a far drop off from that skill level ranking 73rd in rush defense and 84th in tackling. We’re getting a low number because Miami has notoriously struggled with their conference opponent Gtech over the years. It's been close but last year Miami did win by 21 points and I think they can win by a larger margin this year.

Old Dominion +2.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
I’m showing strong advantages to Old Dominion on both sides of the ball in FEI and YPP. In offensive plays of over 10 yards, the Monarch’s surprisingly rank 14th in the nation - a huge problem for Southern Miss. defense that has allowed the 2nd to league worst - 132nd in defensive plays allowed over 10 yards. In OPP, Old Dominion’s offense outranks them by 88 ranks and on defensive DPP, by 36 ranks. On average - across all FEI categories - Old Dominion on offense outranks Southern Miss by 30 ranks. On defense the average is 20 ranks across all categories. Old Dominion started a new starting QB last week Shields which was their biggest problem on offense and although they lost they put up 35 points on offense that showed a little life. Old Dominion has had a great run game, ranking 12th averaging 5.4 yards per carry - something this S. Miss defense really struggles with and have allowed 5.4 yards per carry of their own on defense - ranking #119th! All these mismatches on paper with a slightly tougher SOS according to Sagarin - if we can average 5 yards per carry then we should win this one easily.
 
There are 4 maybe 5 nfl wrs gonna be on the field in that lsu/mizzou game!! I’ve made a killing betting props from both these teams!! Should be a fun one!!

I love Miami this year, I get a chubby thinking bout Van Dyke in this offense instead of the garbage they ran last year. Throw in the one thing Cristobal can do besides recruit is build offensive lines and seems like a perfect match. I been pretty vocal bout how good I think ya’ll could be. I’m not sure if I can lay this number tho, despite losing to a mac team last week I been pretty impressed with king and the Gtech offense. I kinda like idea of Van Dyke over passing yards cause tech pass d been hideous and I think tech can score enough points to keep canes passing!! Any concern they looking ahead to unc next week?

Rutgers getting 14.5 seems crazy.

Ncst and undsr go hand and hand most weeks!

I don’t love laying it with canes this week but I wouldn’t be against ya either. Looks like a solid card to me bro! Gl
 
Hell ya glad to see we on same sides on a lot of these banker. As far as look ahead games - I tend to hone in on stats/matchups and am pretty horrible at the situational angles, I need to work into my handicapping more and factor in - didnt even realize Miami had UNC next week lol.....here's the rest of card sorry late post I drank too much last night lol - no writeups because hangover


Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 5: 3-8 (-7.36 units)
Season YTD: 28-25 (-0.67 units)


Week 6 adds:
Notre Dame -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Syracuse +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Alabama ML (-122) Risking 1.22 units to win 1 units
Colorado -3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Baylor +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Iowa/Purdue Under 39 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 6: 5-5 (-0.47 units)
Season YTD: 33-30 (-1.14 units)

Got a lot of extra time to focus on the numbers this week. Hopefully we catch another heater.

Week 7:
Utep/FIU Under 44 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
SMU -11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

Utep/FIU Under 44 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UTEP is most likely going to be starting its 3rd/4th string QB due to a bunch of injuries and concussion protocols and their offensive numbers before that were never that impressive. Their receivers are ranked 118th in PFF and their rushing attack ranked 61st. A closer look at FEI ranks and they are at the bottom 5-10% of almost all FEI offensive ranks including big plays over 10+ yards where they rank 115th so let’s not expect any big plays from their side. Both defenses have pretty poor numbers as well but the one big strength of this UTEP defense is their pass rush which ranks 6th in the nation in the pass rush according to PFF. A big problem for this FIU defense that has allowed sacks on 12% of it’s passes - ranking 124th in the league (rank 111th according to PFF). Last week their starting QB Keyone Jenkins was under such duress that he got knocked out of the game. According to FEI, UTEP’s offense ranks 130th and FIU’s ranks 132nd - both have been horrible on 3rd down ranking #130th and #127th. Neither offense has been able to run the ball over 4 yards per carry and are at the bottom of the league in that category. Last year when these two teams faced off - UTEP dominated 40-6 but scored 38 of their points in the first half before FIU made adjustments and held them to 0 in 2nd half (not counting 2 pt safety on defense). FIU was held to 76 total yards in that matchup and both teams have the same coaching staff's return so hopefully this game plays out like the 2nd half of last years where 8 points were scored.

SMU -11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
I love when we get the best possible matchup on paper with a #1 ranking pass rush vs #133 ranking pass-blocking - East Carolina’s rotating QB’s should be running for their lives against this SMU pass rush. On average across all positional categories in PFF - SMU outranks ECU by 64 rank differential on defense - and 37 ranks on offense! In FEI, more of the same with SMU’s offense outranking ECU’s defense by an average of 50 ranks accross all categories and 57 ranks on defense! You know a teams especially bad by their performance on 3rd down - where ECU ranks #110th on offense and on defense. We also have the much more disciplined team as SMU ranks 30th in penalties per play and ECU ranks 133rd. We also have a nice advantage in special teams, according to PFF, SMU ranks 25th and ECU ranks 97th. On paper I can’t see why SMU shouldn’t be able to pull away in the 2nd half by 2 TD’s.

Week 6: Results
LSU/Missouri Over 62.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units W
Rutgers +14.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units W
NC State/Marshal Under 45.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units L
Miami -20 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units L
Old Dominion +2.5 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units W
Notre Dame -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units L
Syracuse +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units L
Alabama ML (-122) Risking 1.22 units to win 1 units W
Colorado -3 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units P
Baylor +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units L
Iowa/Purdue Under 39 (-113) Risking 1.13 units to win 1 units W
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 35-30 (+0.86 units)

Week 7 adds:
Notre Dame ML (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Kansas -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 unit to win 1 units
Rutgers ML (-188) Risking 1.88 units to win 1 units
Texas A&M +3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Georgia Southern +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Iowa State +5.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
Charlotte +3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
UF/South Car Under 50.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
UCLA/Oregon State Under 54.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
2 Team Teaser 6.5 (-130) - Miami OH -2 and Wisconsin -2.5

Notre Dame ML (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
USC hasn’t played anyone the SOS discrepancy is huge - (with a differential of 50 ranks according to Sagarin) But Notre Dame still outranks USC in most categories and have a much stronger defense ranking 9th overall, 17th in the pass rush, 30th in coverage and 12th against the run. USC’s defense is a bit of a drop off ranked 39th overall, 32nd in the pass rush, 31st in coverage and 79th in the run game (and 113th in tackling) Notre Dame should run all over them and open things up for hartman. Was strongly considering two units but decided to just do the 1 unit for all games this week.

Kansas -2.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 unit to win 1 units
I love this Kansas team - for decades Oklahoma State has dominated this head to head matchup except last year where Kansas won easily - this is much of the same team for them. Short writeup sorry but love Kansas even without Daniels.

Rutgers ML (-188) Risking 1.88 units to win 1 units
On paper, Rutgers dominates the numbers I look at but was worried as Rutgers often shoots themself in the foot and keeps games closer then they should be so I was worried with the full 4.5 points and thought it was a safe 2 unit bet (to win 1) at home for them.
In PFF, across all positional categories - Rutgers defense outranks Mich State’s offense by an average of 63 ranks - they should get plenty of pressure against a pass blocking team that ranks 77th and Rutgers pass rush ranks 27th according to PFF. On Offense, Rutgers outranks by an average of 15 ranks across all categories. We also have the much better tackling team as Rutgers is ranked #1 and Mich State ranked 80th. FEI numbers show TRIPLE DIGIT ranking differentials in almost all categories. Also in special teams FEI - Rutgers ranks 32nd and Mich State 84. In NFP Rutgers ranks 19th where Mich State ranks 119th.

Texas A&M +3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
I really like what I’ve been seeing from backup QB Max Johnson who took over since Weigman got hurt. These teams are pretty evenly matched on paper but Texas AM has had a much harder SOS to date. Tennessee has had a cake walk schedule to date and Florida’s defense held them to 16 points as Milton could not handle the pressure. Texas AM ranks 22nd in the pass rush and should bring plenty to try to throw off Milton. Tennessee strong defense PFF numbers should be taken with a grain of salt due to their schedule so far. I was the SEC a lot and this one def has the eye test/gut and think Texas AM pulls out the win outright but I’ll take 3.5 points.

Georgia Southern +7 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Georgian Southern matches up great against James Madison. The biggest strength of James Madison is their run defense - but no one runs less then Georgia Southern at 32%. Their coverage hasn’t been great, ranking 63rd according to PFF, #101 in yards per pass. James Madison prefers to run - which is the strength of this Georgia Southern defense who ranks 39th against the rush. We also have a strong advantage in tackling as James Madison ranks 123rd and GS ranks 32nd. On average - in FEI, Georgia Southern Outranks on both sides of the ball - especially defense where it averages to 20 ranks. Buy to 7 but I’ll gladly take that many in this matchup.

Iowa State +5.5 (-108) Risking 1.08 units to win 1 units
No writeup sorry - short on time for these as I went out drinking last night - ugh

Charlotte +3.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Homecoming game with an extra week to prepare for the option - they are hyped up!

UF/South Car Under 50.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Originally I was going to go with Florida but after digging in decided to go with the under. Although UF dominates in most PFF matchups - their SOS was much easier as they are ranked 74th according to Sagarin and South Carolina ranked 1st. South Carolina has struggled with protection, ranking 87 in pass blocking and UF pass rush has been great ranking 23rd in the nation so that should cause problems for this South Carolina offense. South Carolina’s biggest weakness has been their secondary which Mertz isn’t one you really have to worry about. A scary under considering both these teams love to throw the ball but hopefully we get a healthy dose of Etienne now that he’s back. Both teams have a lot of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Last year in this SEC matchup Gators dominated 38-6 but this time they’ll be on the road and I think both teams struggle to put up points.

UCLA/Oregon State Under 54.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
The PFF numbers show strong advantages to both defense. - sorry ran outta time for writeups - trying to post before 11am as got people waiting on plays. Good luck all

2 Team Teaser 6.5 (-130) - Miami OH -2 and Wisconsin -2.5
No writeups for teasers
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 7: 5-7 (-3.35 units)
Season YTD: 38-37 (-4.49 units)

No fricking around this week. All business. Last week I fricked around too long and had to work on the spreadsheets with a hangover and little sleep saturday morning rushed. This week I got the numbers done by Wednesday and have been locking them all week - love the card. I’am also starting to add a few props where I find big advantages to either a) QB rush yards, b) QB/WR/RB total yards over/unders.

Week 8:
Penn State/OSU Under 46 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Rutgers -4 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
TCU +7 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
Hawaii/New Mex Over 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh +2.5 (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
Northern Illinois -12 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin ML (-147) Risking 1.47 units to win 1 units
Duke +14.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
UAB/Memphis Over 61 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Mississippi -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt teaser (-120) Missouri -1.5 and Alabama -2. Riskin 1z2 units to win 1 units

Penn State/OSU Under 46 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
We have two great defenses squaring off here and despite this head 2 head match up usually landing in the 60+ total combined points over the last 3 years - there’s reasons to take the under this year and oddsmakers set a relatively low number considering there recent head 2 head matchups. Both teams lost their star starting QB’s, the “new guys” are largely untested. PFF shows these defenses are elite level with OSU ranking 6th overall, 20th in pass rush, 5th in coverage, 8th against the run and 18th in tackling. Penn State’s ranks 7th overall, 3rd in the pass rush, 7th in coverage, and 29th against the run. In plays allowed over 10+ yards the defense ranks 1st and 3rd. They are both in the top 5 of almost every top 5 stat category. Despite the soft competition, the offenses have not been as explosive as they have been years past. Penn State currently ranks 86th in plays over 10 yards and 118th in plays over 30 yards! Ohio State ranks 21st in plays over 10 yards and 44th in plays over 30+ yards. The defenses rank 2nd and 3rd in allowing plays over 30 yards. Both offensive lines have also struggled with protection so I think the pressure from an actual defense will cause fits for both of them. I also like how the OC Kevin Wilson left and OSU promoted someone in-house with no experience in calling plays and has only been a coach at the collegiate level since 2017 at OSU as a WR coach. Both teams will be fired up - lets hope and pray it stays under the total.

Rutgers -4 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Just call me team Rutgers as it looks like I’m betting them every week. Last week they didnt cover (luckily we had the ML) but the largely dominated that game despite going down 24-6. Schiano and that excellent coaching staff made their adjustments and kicked MSU’s ass in the 2nd half to pull of the ML cover. The spreadsheet has more of the same large advantages for Rutgers in this one - on average across all positional categories in PFF- Rutgers on defense outranks Indiana by 64.5 ranks - and still sport the #1 defensive tackling team. Their #32 ranked pass rush should be a big problem for this Indiana O Line that ranks 111th in pass blocking. On offense Rutgers outranks in every positional category by an average of 40 ranks. The FEI #’s for Rutgers on the defensive side of the ball are scary (maybe Indiana TT under) They outranks the Indiana offense IN EVERY CATEGORY - and by an average of 96 ranks - a rare site. On offense they outranks in most categories and by an average of 26 ranks. In points per play, plays over 10+ yards, long drive situations, and short drive sitruations - Rutgers defense outranks but 80+ ranks. Rutgers love to run the ball and Indiana has allowed opponents to rush for 5.1 ypc against them so Rutgers should move the ball easily. Rutgers has beat them in head to head matchups the last two years by 7+ and I think they can go on the road and do that again this week. We love this Rugers team and bought down to 4 to be safe.

TCU +7 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
Although Chandler Morris got injured, backup freshman QB Josh Hoover looked really good last week in his first start against BYU where they dominated and won 44-11.PFF shows the wrong team is favored as although Kansas State’s offense is slightly better than TCU’s (21st ahead of their 23rd ranking) the differential on defense is much larger as Kansas State’s defense has really fallen off this season. TCU’s defense is ranked 16th overall, 28th in coverage, 13th against the run, and 48th in tackling. Kansas State’s defense is ranked 74th overall, 78th in coverage, 91st against the run, and 114th in tackling! The average differential between positional mismatches is much greater for TCU. FEI Numbers are nearly identical and slightly favor each offense. YPP though shows some BIG advantages to TCU though - with TCU ranking 50th in plays over 10+ yards - a problem for the KSU defense that ranks 107th in Defense 10+ yards allowed. TCU on defense ranks 52nd at allowing plays of 10+ yards and this is another struggle of KSU who rank 107th on offense in plays over 10+ yards. I was never really a fan of Will Howard, despite his good season last year, he was the backup and starting to show how bad he was in 2020 year - his current PFF ranking is 93rd on offense and 119th in passing. This is a big rivalry game where they played twice last year and each team split a win - but TCU’s loss was close by 3 points and I love getting 7 points here so the biggest bet of the weekend. Buy the hook.

Hawaii/New Mex Over 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
The spreadsheets light up green for this one in every metric I study - PFF, FEI, and YPP. Here’s the brass tacks of it all: In PFF: Both offenses have an average of over 55+ rank differential in positional matchups. The defenses are two of the worst in the nation - especially in tackling where they rank 130th and 128th. In FEI - the offense outranks the defense in almost every category and by an average of 38 ranks across all FEI cats. In YPP, the offenses outrank significantly by 45+ ranks on both sides of the ball. Both defenses allow tons of plays over 10+ yards ranking 128th and 132nd.
Both Special teams are horrible too (ranked 129th and 80th in PFF) which should lead to points too. Hawaii loves to throw but can’t stop the run. I see both teams moving the ball up and down the field with ease.

Pittsburgh +2.5 (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh brought in a new starting QB Christian Veilleux last week as Jurkovec was struggling and they upset Louisville big 38-21. Their biggest struggles on offense has been their offensive line which they have made a lot of moves but should be getting their starting center back this week that should help improve it tremendously. Wake Forest is banged up with their starting QB Griffis listed as questionable and backup Kern who has taken over quite a few snaps listed as out. Their offensive line and protection has been a huge problem this season - ranking 129th in sack% on offense and averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. The front of this Pittsburgh team is their strength as they rank 12th in sack %, and #22 in yards per carry allowed. The pressure that Narduzzi loves to bring is going to cause havoc and really disrupt this slow mesh offense that has only put up 20 points per game this season. Wake ranks 123rd on offense in TFL allowed - a nice mismatch for Pitt that ranks 39th in TFLs. They’ve had a much easier schedule then Pitt, ranking 90th according to Sagarin where Pitt ranks 30th. I think Christian Veilleux leads his team to another big win against Wake.

Northern Illinois -12 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’m showing BIG advantages to Northern Illinois as well as a harder SOS. Starting QB Lombardi has finally seemed to improve and get more in sync with his receivers after struggling the first few games of the year. Eastern Michigan’s offense has been so horrible they are ranked near the bottom of every FEI category leaving NIU’s above average defense with a large differential of 72 ranks across all categories! They haven’t been able to pull off many big plays, ranking 108th in plays over 10+ yards, which NIU’s defense has been great at stopping and rank 7th in the nation in plays over 10+ yards allowed. On offense NIU knows how to get those big plays ranking 29th in the nation, where EMU’s defense ranks 72nd in plays of 10+ yards allowed. NIU loves to run the ball, averaging 5 yards per carry on the season, which has been a big problem for this EMU defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry (ranking 114th). NIU is also a very disciplined team ranking 9th in the nation in penalties per play where EMU ranks 48th. Last year NIU won by 29 points - NIU dominated the line of scrimmage averaging 5.86 ypc and holding EMU to only 29 total rushing yards! Hard to see NIU not winning again by that many points.

Wisconsin ML (-127) Risking 1.27 units to win 1 units
Despite Illinois' big upset win last week over Maryland ( I never liked Locksley) I think Wisconsin’s size and defense matches up much better against Illinois the Maryland did. Wisconsin’s defense struggled the first few games but has seen significant improvement since their bye week before Week 6 they were ranked 59th in overall defense, 60th in the pass rush, 45th in coverage and 49th against the run. They currently are ranked 22nd overall, 33rd in the pass rush, 18th in coverage and 50th against the run. The Illinois offensive line really struggles with pressure and ranks 131st in the league in pass blocking. This Illinois offense prefers to throw as their run blocking has been piss poor as well, ranking 95th. I honestly didn’t realize Mordecai was out before I locked this in but still like the bet as Wiscy should just stick with the run game as they have averaged 5 ypc and Illinois front has been pretty bad ranking 58th against the run and ranking 74th in ypc allowed. We have significant advantages on both sides of the ball on 3rd down % and RZ %. Whisky is much more disciplined and takes care of the ball much better than illinois. The only reason this number is so high is because of the unknown of Wiscy’s new starting QB but I think the better overall team will win.

Duke +14.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Banking on Leonard Riley starting as reports say he has been practicing and looks good but even if he doesn’t I think the Duke defense is good enough to keep us in this game. They rank 16th overall and are especially good in coverage - ranking 2nd. Their offense loves to run the ball which has been a weakness of this FSU defense who has allowed much weaker opponents to run for 4 ypc against them. The FEI/YPP/PFF, and the other standard metrics are pretty even/slightly favored to FSU on paper in this one so you gotta like the 14 points. We also have a strong special teams advantage according to PFF Duke ranks 16th where FSU ranks 111th. Duke is also the much more disciplined team, who ranks 36th in penalties per play and FSU ranks 95th in penalties per play. In Riley we trust.

UAB/Memphis Over 61 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Another one that lights up green all over the spread sheets - TAKE THE OVER!. In PFF, UAB outranks Memphis offense by an average of 32 ranks across all categories and Memphis’s outranks UAB by and average of 60 ranks. Both defenses in the bottom of tackling ranking 93rd and 124th. Both teams prefer to throw - which should stop the clock more. In FEI Memphis has huge mismatches over UAB’s defense and UAB’s offense as well but not as significant. In allowing plays over 10+ yards both defenses rank 115th and 114th so the offenses that rank 69th and 62nd have big advantages. These two teams haven’t played each other in over a decade which I think favors the more cohesive offenses.

Mississippi -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
No time for write=up on baby duty this sat morning

2 Team 6 pt teaser (-120) Missouri -1.5 and Alabama -2
No time for write=up on baby duty this sat morning
 
DapperDan said:
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 7: 5-7 (-3.35 units)
Season YTD: 38-37 (-4.49 units)

No fricking around this week. All business. Last week I fricked around too long and had to work on the spreadsheets with a hangover and little sleep saturday morning rushed. This week I got the numbers done by Wednesday and have been locking them all week - love the card. I’am also starting to add a few props where I find big advantages to either a) QB rush yards, b) QB/WR/RB total yards over/unders.

Week 8:
Penn State/OSU Under 46 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
Rutgers -4 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
TCU +7 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
Hawaii/New Mex Over 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh +2.5 (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
Northern Illinois -12 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin ML (-147) Risking 1.47 units to win 1 units
Duke +14.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
UAB/Memphis Over 61 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Mississippi -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team 6 pt teaser (-120) Missouri -1.5 and Alabama -2. Riskin 1z2 units to win 1 units

Penn State/OSU Under 46 (-111) Risking 1.11 units to win 1 units
We have two great defenses squaring off here and despite this head 2 head match up usually landing in the 60+ total combined points over the last 3 years - there’s reasons to take the under this year and oddsmakers set a relatively low number considering there recent head 2 head matchups. Both teams lost their star starting QB’s, the “new guys” are largely untested. PFF shows these defenses are elite level with OSU ranking 6th overall, 20th in pass rush, 5th in coverage, 8th against the run and 18th in tackling. Penn State’s ranks 7th overall, 3rd in the pass rush, 7th in coverage, and 29th against the run. In plays allowed over 10+ yards the defense ranks 1st and 3rd. They are both in the top 5 of almost every top 5 stat category. Despite the soft competition, the offenses have not been as explosive as they have been years past. Penn State currently ranks 86th in plays over 10 yards and 118th in plays over 30 yards! Ohio State ranks 21st in plays over 10 yards and 44th in plays over 30+ yards. The defenses rank 2nd and 3rd in allowing plays over 30 yards. Both offensive lines have also struggled with protection so I think the pressure from an actual defense will cause fits for both of them. I also like how the OC Kevin Wilson left and OSU promoted someone in-house with no experience in calling plays and has only been a coach at the collegiate level since 2017 at OSU as a WR coach. Both teams will be fired up - lets hope and pray it stays under the total.

Rutgers -4 (-130) Risking 1.3 units to win 1 units
Just call me team Rutgers as it looks like I’m betting them every week. Last week they didnt cover (luckily we had the ML) but the largely dominated that game despite going down 24-6. Schiano and that excellent coaching staff made their adjustments and kicked MSU’s ass in the 2nd half to pull of the ML cover. The spreadsheet has more of the same large advantages for Rutgers in this one - on average across all positional categories in PFF- Rutgers on defense outranks Indiana by 64.5 ranks - and still sport the #1 defensive tackling team. Their #32 ranked pass rush should be a big problem for this Indiana O Line that ranks 111th in pass blocking. On offense Rutgers outranks in every positional category by an average of 40 ranks. The FEI #’s for Rutgers on the defensive side of the ball are scary (maybe Indiana TT under) They outranks the Indiana offense IN EVERY CATEGORY - and by an average of 96 ranks - a rare site. On offense they outranks in most categories and by an average of 26 ranks. In points per play, plays over 10+ yards, long drive situations, and short drive sitruations - Rutgers defense outranks but 80+ ranks. Rutgers love to run the ball and Indiana has allowed opponents to rush for 5.1 ypc against them so Rutgers should move the ball easily. Rutgers has beat them in head to head matchups the last two years by 7+ and I think they can go on the road and do that again this week. We love this Rugers team and bought down to 4 to be safe.

TCU +7 (-125) Risking 1.88 units to win 1.5 units
Although Chandler Morris got injured, backup freshman QB Josh Hoover looked really good last week in his first start against BYU where they dominated and won 44-11.PFF shows the wrong team is favored as although Kansas State’s offense is slightly better than TCU’s (21st ahead of their 23rd ranking) the differential on defense is much larger as Kansas State’s defense has really fallen off this season. TCU’s defense is ranked 16th overall, 28th in coverage, 13th against the run, and 48th in tackling. Kansas State’s defense is ranked 74th overall, 78th in coverage, 91st against the run, and 114th in tackling! The average differential between positional mismatches is much greater for TCU. FEI Numbers are nearly identical and slightly favor each offense. YPP though shows some BIG advantages to TCU though - with TCU ranking 50th in plays over 10+ yards - a problem for the KSU defense that ranks 107th in Defense 10+ yards allowed. TCU on defense ranks 52nd at allowing plays of 10+ yards and this is another struggle of KSU who rank 107th on offense in plays over 10+ yards. I was never really a fan of Will Howard, despite his good season last year, he was the backup and starting to show how bad he was in 2020 year - his current PFF ranking is 93rd on offense and 119th in passing. This is a big rivalry game where they played twice last year and each team split a win - but TCU’s loss was close by 3 points and I love getting 7 points here so the biggest bet of the weekend. Buy the hook.

Hawaii/New Mex Over 60 (-109) Risking 1.09 units to win 1 units
The spreadsheets light up green for this one in every metric I study - PFF, FEI, and YPP. Here’s the brass tacks of it all: In PFF: Both offenses have an average of over 55+ rank differential in positional matchups. The defenses are two of the worst in the nation - especially in tackling where they rank 130th and 128th. In FEI - the offense outranks the defense in almost every category and by an average of 38 ranks across all FEI cats. In YPP, the offenses outrank significantly by 45+ ranks on both sides of the ball. Both defenses allow tons of plays over 10+ yards ranking 128th and 132nd.
Both Special teams are horrible too (ranked 129th and 80th in PFF) which should lead to points too. Hawaii loves to throw but can’t stop the run. I see both teams moving the ball up and down the field with ease.

Pittsburgh +2.5 (-123) Risking 1.23 units to win 1 units
Pittsburgh brought in a new starting QB Christian Veilleux last week as Jurkovec was struggling and they upset Louisville big 38-21. Their biggest struggles on offense has been their offensive line which they have made a lot of moves but should be getting their starting center back this week that should help improve it tremendously. Wake Forest is banged up with their starting QB Griffis listed as questionable and backup Kern who has taken over quite a few snaps listed as out. Their offensive line and protection has been a huge problem this season - ranking 129th in sack% on offense and averaging only 3.5 yards per carry. The front of this Pittsburgh team is their strength as they rank 12th in sack %, and #22 in yards per carry allowed. The pressure that Narduzzi loves to bring is going to cause havoc and really disrupt this slow mesh offense that has only put up 20 points per game this season. Wake ranks 123rd on offense in TFL allowed - a nice mismatch for Pitt that ranks 39th in TFLs. They’ve had a much easier schedule then Pitt, ranking 90th according to Sagarin where Pitt ranks 30th. I think Christian Veilleux leads his team to another big win against Wake.

Northern Illinois -12 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
I’m showing BIG advantages to Northern Illinois as well as a harder SOS. Starting QB Lombardi has finally seemed to improve and get more in sync with his receivers after struggling the first few games of the year. Eastern Michigan’s offense has been so horrible they are ranked near the bottom of every FEI category leaving NIU’s above average defense with a large differential of 72 ranks across all categories! They haven’t been able to pull off many big plays, ranking 108th in plays over 10+ yards, which NIU’s defense has been great at stopping and rank 7th in the nation in plays over 10+ yards allowed. On offense NIU knows how to get those big plays ranking 29th in the nation, where EMU’s defense ranks 72nd in plays of 10+ yards allowed. NIU loves to run the ball, averaging 5 yards per carry on the season, which has been a big problem for this EMU defense that has allowed 5.1 yards per carry (ranking 114th). NIU is also a very disciplined team ranking 9th in the nation in penalties per play where EMU ranks 48th. Last year NIU won by 29 points - NIU dominated the line of scrimmage averaging 5.86 ypc and holding EMU to only 29 total rushing yards! Hard to see NIU not winning again by that many points.

Wisconsin ML (-127) Risking 1.27 units to win 1 units
Despite Illinois' big upset win last week over Maryland ( I never liked Locksley) I think Wisconsin’s size and defense matches up much better against Illinois the Maryland did. Wisconsin’s defense struggled the first few games but has seen significant improvement since their bye week before Week 6 they were ranked 59th in overall defense, 60th in the pass rush, 45th in coverage and 49th against the run. They currently are ranked 22nd overall, 33rd in the pass rush, 18th in coverage and 50th against the run. The Illinois offensive line really struggles with pressure and ranks 131st in the league in pass blocking. This Illinois offense prefers to throw as their run blocking has been piss poor as well, ranking 95th. I honestly didn’t realize Mordecai was out before I locked this in but still like the bet as Wiscy should just stick with the run game as they have averaged 5 ypc and Illinois front has been pretty bad ranking 58th against the run and ranking 74th in ypc allowed. We have significant advantages on both sides of the ball on 3rd down % and RZ %. Whisky is much more disciplined and takes care of the ball much better than illinois. The only reason this number is so high is because of the unknown of Wiscy’s new starting QB but I think the better overall team will win.

Duke +14.5 (-106) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 units
Banking on Leonard Riley starting as reports say he has been practicing and looks good but even if he doesn’t I think the Duke defense is good enough to keep us in this game. They rank 16th overall and are especially good in coverage - ranking 2nd. Their offense loves to run the ball which has been a weakness of this FSU defense who has allowed much weaker opponents to run for 4 ypc against them. The FEI/YPP/PFF, and the other standard metrics are pretty even/slightly favored to FSU on paper in this one so you gotta like the 14 points. We also have a strong special teams advantage according to PFF Duke ranks 16th where FSU ranks 111th. Duke is also the much more disciplined team, who ranks 36th in penalties per play and FSU ranks 95th in penalties per play. In Riley we trust.

UAB/Memphis Over 61 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Another one that lights up green all over the spread sheets - TAKE THE OVER!. In PFF, UAB outranks Memphis offense by an average of 32 ranks across all categories and Memphis’s outranks UAB by and average of 60 ranks. Both defenses in the bottom of tackling ranking 93rd and 124th. Both teams prefer to throw - which should stop the clock more. In FEI Memphis has huge mismatches over UAB’s defense and UAB’s offense as well but not as significant. In allowing plays over 10+ yards both defenses rank 115th and 114th so the offenses that rank 69th and 62nd have big advantages. These two teams haven’t played each other in over a decade which I think favors the more cohesive offenses.

Mississippi -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
No time for write=up on baby duty this sat morning

2 Team 6 pt teaser (-120) Missouri -1.5 and Alabama -2
No time for write=up on baby duty this sat morning
Click to expand...
FYI...reports now that Leonard not playing for Duke...who knows?
 
Thanks Fellas! FOOK WE NEED RILEY!

Adding: Joe Milton III Rush Yards under 13.5 (-115) Risking .58 units to win .5 units
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 8 Results: 7-5 (+1.2 units)
Season YTD: 45-42 (-3.29 units)

More to come Sat. Morning - card looks pretty lame though and already finishing running numbers - digging next few days

Week 9:
Syracuse +3.5 (-125)
Georgia Southern ML (-115)
Purdue/Nebraska Under 40 (-110)

Week 9 Write-ups:
Syracuse +3.5 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
More of an eye test although the numbers show some support. Despite their recent terrible performances, I still like Shrader and this Syracuse offense - they've just played some tough competition in the last 3 with FSU (def PFF rank# 21), UNC (def PFF rank # , and Clemson (def PFF rank # 35th)....they should see some life against V-tech’s defense that ranks 106th in PFF. Vtech loves to blitz and bring pressure and mobile Shrader should step his game up against this weak secondary who rank 126th in PFF and pick up plenty of first downs with his legs. Vtech’s offense has improved under Drones but still struggles on 3rd down only converting 31% of the time, ranking 115th in the nation. Their offensive coordinator Tyler Bowen has never done much anywhere calling plays, as last year Vtech ranked #115th in ypp and his only other “co-offensive” coordinator role was at Penn State in 2020 where they ranked 83rd in ypp. I give the edge to Syracuse and their first year offensive coordinator Jason Beck who although has never called plays before either has coached 3 great college QBs (and some moved up to NFL) as QB coach with Taysom Hill, Kurt Benkert, and Bryce Perkins. We also have strong advantages in PFF on defense as Vtech ranks 104th in overall offense, 100th in passing, 79th in receiving, 99th in rushing and 91st in run blocking. Syracuse’s defense overall ranks 39th in PFF, 21st in coverage, 47th against the run and 13th in tackling giving them an average differential of 41 ranks across all categories and Syracuse’s offense has edges in every position except pass-blocking where they struggle ranking 47th but Shrader can make moves with his legs. Syracuse keeps this one close and maybe even pulls out an upset.


Georgia Southern ML (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
After losing to Georgia State for the last 3 years - this is Georgia Southern’s year to upset Georgia State at home in a revenge game for this in-state rivalry. The strengths and weaknesses of these teams both favor GA Southern. GA Southern loves to throw - almost 65% of the time and although average with a passing PFF ranking of 38th and receivers ranking 50th it’s still a big mismatch on paper against the secondary of Georgia State who ranks 116th in PFF and 91st in defensive passing efficency. Georgia State loves to run - almost 58% of the time - and that is the strength of this Georgia Southern defense that ranks #41st in ypp allowed and 28th in PFF. Georgia Southern is the more disciplined team ranking #32nd in penalties per play vs GA State’s #89th ranking. Georgia Southern is the better tackling team ranking 26th vs GA state’s #92 ranking. Georgia Southern has a better special teams with a PFF rank of 47th and Net Field Position ranking of 27th - vs a GA State’s special teams that ranks 115th in PFF and 87th in NFP. They have been better on 3rd down conv % on both sides of the ball with Georgia State really struggling on defense ranking 87th in the nation. In last years matchup GA Southern was -4 in turnover margin but the QB responsible is gone and I think this is the year! Last time GA State won 3 years in a row (from ‘15-’17) Georgia Southern stole two back to back and they should be riled up tonight to take this one.

Purdue/Nebraska Under 40 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
The oddsmakers see the writing on the wall with putting a total of half of the total amount of points scored in last year's matchup but these are two very different programs. Both coaching staffs have been completely revamped. The offensive guru Jeff Brohm departed for Louisville and in steps Ryan Walters - a newly proven defensive schemer who was able to take the 2020 Illinois defense that ranked 104th in ypp allowed to 31st in ypp allowed in his 1st year of 2021 and in his 2nd year they ranked 2nd in the nation in ypp allowed before being hired by Purdue. On the other side fast paced Scott Frost gets axed and in comes Matt Rhule who also brings in a defensive expert Tony White to revamp this defense. He was at Syracuse the last 3 years and turned a triple digit ypp allowed defense into a top 25 (okay 26th in his last year). He is a disciple of Rocky Long and has plenty of experience all around college football. In FEI, both defenses outrank the offense in each category and by an average of 35 ranks. Both teams have been incapable of producing big plays, with Purdue ranking 108th in plays over 10+ yards and 127th in plays over 30+ yards. Nebraska ranks 105th plays over 10+ yards and 88th in plays over 30+ yards. To even further counter this - both defenses have been stellar at stopping big plays with Nebraska ranking 6th in plays over 10+ yards and 22nd in plays over 30+ yards. Purdue’s almost just as good ranking 33rd in plays over 10+ yards but 95th in plays over 30+ yards. In PFF, both defenses have significant advantages in the pass rush of 35 ranks + as both offenses have struggled to protect their QBs. This should be a low scoring one and the first bet I locked in for Saturday.
 
Week 9 Adding:
Maryland -13.5 (-115)
UCF/WVU over 58 (-110)
Iowa State ML (-137)
Oregon -6 (-110)
Ohio State -14 (-115)
Tenn ML (-170)
UNC -11.5 (-104)
Oregon St/Arizona over 56.5 (-102)
Purd/Neb. Under 40 (-110) Posted Thurs.

Adding:
Maryland -13.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Northwestern has been in shambles all season and although Maryland struggled last week and had back to back losses against Illinois and Ohio State - I think their offense returns to form this week and blows out this NW team. In PFF, across all positional matchups- Maryland outranks NW by 50 ranks on both sides of the ball. Two categories I particularly love to see the mismatch in is in coverage where NW has struggled ranking 90th in the nation and Tua’s bro and his receivers should have a field day- especially with time in the pocket as Tualia struggles under pressure but NW isn’t very good at bringing pressure - ranking 118th in the pass rush. Also we love to see the pass rush mismatch and NW has struggled at protecting its passer - ranking 121st in passblocking - which presents a problem against this Maryland defense that ranks 53rd in PFF and 26th in sack%. In FEI the mismatch is even more drastic with Maryland’s offense outranking NW defense by an average of 50 ranks and their defense outranks NW’s offense by an average of 70 ranks! In special teams - we have another big mismatch as Maryland ranks 17th is S-FEI and 23rd in NFP. NW’s special teams ranks 72nd in S-FEI and 128th in NFP! These are huge differentials in two stat categories I focus on so I think two TD’s shouldn’t be hard to win by.

UCF/WVU over 58 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This one looks very pretty in green on the spreadsheets screaming for the over. I also like UCF to win by more than a TD but just a lean for now. WVU’s defense has been pretty terrible, ranking 90th overall, 116th in coverage, 64th against the run and 77th in tackling. A differential of 60 ranks across all categories from UCF’s positional matchups on offense! WVU’s offense likewise outranks UCF’s defense in every positional matchup in PFF by an average of 40 ranks. In FEI, both offenses outrank the defenses in every category, and by an average of 50+ ranks. UCF’s defense has been especially bad against the run (ranked #110th in the nation) allowing 5.1 ypc and that's what WVU loves to do - running the ball 62% of the time. UCF’s defense has been especially bad too on 3rd down ranking 127th in the nation. Both teams average at least a giveaway per game so let’s hope they come in good field position. WVU has a strong advantage in special teams too as they rank 24th in NFD where UCF ranks 71st. WVU is also the much more disciplined team so lets hope UCF extends some drives with their dumb penalties. Will probably sprinkle some UCF MLs/teaser in but just the over for a unit bet.

Iowa State ML (-137) Risking 1.37 units to win 1 units
Love getting the much better defense in a close ML like this one. Iowa State’s offense struggled early in the season but has finally come together the last two weeks upsetting TCU and Cinn with 27 and 30 points. They should put up at least 30 again against a Baylor defense that has really struggled this season - in PFF they currently rank 119th overalls 108th in the pass rush, 99th in coverage, 115th against the run, and 125th in tackling. In contrast - Iowa State’s defensive numbers are superb and outrank this Baylor’s offense by an average of 30 ranks across all categories - and if you don’t count the “pass block - pass rush” category - the differential is much larger at 56 ranks as Iowa State doesn’t like to bring pressure and drop back and play defense - ranking 16th in coverage. Baylor loves to throw the ball and that’s the strength of this ISU defense who ranks 12th in ypp allowed and 12in completion %, 11th in defensive passing efficiency to go along with their 16th PFF ranking. In those categories - Baylor’s secondary ranks #113th in ypp allowed, 100th in completion % allowed, and 105th in defensive passing efficiency. The FEI numbers show the same mismatches on both sides of the ball as Iowa State’s offense outranks Baylors in every FEI category and by an average of 37 ranks. For defense, in FEI, Iowa State outranks in every category but 1 and by an average of 40 ranks across all categories. Baylor has beat ISU the last two years and this is the year Iowa State goes to Baylor and comes away with the W.

Oregon -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Kyle Whittingham has certainly come up big lately with lots of upsets and a remarkable 6-1 record considering Rising has been out and Barnes has been quite horrible (although lately beating up on the bottom of the PAC 12 defense). Utah’s defense and run game has been winning their games but I don’t see them doing enough in this one - especially as bad as their offense has been. The PFF mismatches are quite scary - Oregon on offense ranks 6th overall, 1st in pass blocking, 10th in passing, 16th in receiving, 1st in the run game and 23rd in the pass rush. I had to do a double take when looking at Utah’s defenseive PFF numbers as they rank 76th overall, 47th in coverage, and 116th against the run. Oregon’s defense has stepped up to date ranking 27th overall, 66th in pass rush, 32nd in coverage, 38th against the run and 6th in tackling! These numbers leave huge differentials both in favor of Oregon ... .FEI more of the same differentials in favor of Oregon with their offense outranking by an average of 14 ranks across all categories and defense outranking by 28 ranks. Utah has won 15 straight home games but they are losing this one - BIG.

Ohio State -13.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Wisconsin was fortunate to come out with the win last week but that was a crappy Illinois team - this is Ohio State and they should destroy Wisconsin this year. Mordecai is out and in steps a new freshman who last week completed 50% of his passes for 5.9 yards against Illinois’s defense. But this will be a very different defense that will eat Locke alive - Ohio State ranks 4th overall, 10th in the pass rush, 2nd in coverage, 9th against the run, and 15th in tackling. Expect a few INT’s and tons of pressure as Wisconsin has been average at pass blocking and ranks 40th. FEI shows that Ohio State’s defense outranks Wisconsins by an average of 40 ranks across all categories - and that was with Mordecai. Wisconsin has no idea what a big play over 10+ yards is as they rank 109th in the nation and in 30+ yards rank 88th. These flaws will be highlight against a Ohio State team that doesn't make those mistakes and ranks #1 at allowing plays over 10+ yards and 3rd in plays over 30+ yards. Wisconsin will be lucky to score 14 points and Ohio State should eventually wear Wisconsin’s defense down, and they are clearly not what they were last year.

Tenn ML (-170) Risking 1.7 units to win 1 units
Short write-up as one of my last play adds - on paper we Tennessee is just the much better team with the much stronger strength of schedule - ranking 22nd in Sagarin opposed to Kentucky's 95th ranking. Although Tennessee’s offense hasn't been what it was last year since Milton took over - this UK defense has some horrible PFF numbers considering the teams they have faced. UK’s defense rank 78th overall, 80 in the pass rush, 59th in coverage, 92nd against the run, and 87th in tackling. In contrast Tennessee's defense has really turned around from last year - despite the hard schedule - they rank 14th overall, 6th in the pass rush, 11th in coverage, and 70th against the run. Their defensive front has only allowed 3 ypc on the season and UK needs the run game to get their offense going. Kentucky’s offense has really struggled in busted drive rate, first down rate, value drive rate, and available yards. These 4 FEI categories are where Tenn’s defense shines - with an average differential of 85 ranks acccross those 4 categories - the biggest mismatch being busted drive rate where Tenn’s defense ranks 3rd in the nation and UK ranks 124th. Took the ML to be safe for this conference game but I think Tenn wins comfortably.

UNC -11.5 (-104) Risking 1.04 units to win 1 units
This number is so low because Gtech has upset UNC the last two years and UNC just lost to Virginia but aside from that the numbers are heavily skewed to UNC. I love how UNC brought in new OC, Chip Lindsey who is one of my fav offensive schemers - it’s his 1st year and they are crushing it - ranking 28th in overall offense PFF, 21st in ypp, and 14th in 3rd down conv %. He’s calling the right plays at the right times and I think he will catch Gtech’s returning defensive coordinator off guard. The bigger surprise for UNC has been the turn around in their defense under 2nd year DC - Gene Chizik - yes the same Chizik who led Auburn to 14-0 and has been out of coaching for a while. Last year he brought in a totally new scheme and the defense was gashed and one of the worst in the country. Now in his 2nd year - the expected turnaround is developing. In PFF on defense - they rank 35th overall, 21st in pass rush, 21st in coverage, 88th in rush defense (ow), and 39th in tackling. They outrank Gtech’s offense by an average of 34 ranks across all positional categories. The FEI numbers show that you might wanna take the UNC TT over as they outrank Gtech’s defense by an average of 86 ranks across all categories - triple digits in many. Gtech defense has been getting gashed with big plays over 10+ yards allowed, ranking 123rd in the nation and plays over 30+ yards - 107th. UNC’s offense ranks 37th in plays over 10+ yards and 19th in plays over 30+ yards. No way Gtech’s offense keeps pace with them and UNC wins handedly.

Oregon St/Arizona over 56.5 (-102)
Late night PAC 12 over special. Oregon State’s offense has been very well rounded - ranking 7th overall, 31st in passing, 3rd in receiving, 11th in the run game and 2nd in run blocking. This spells points against an Arizona defense that ranks 112th overall, 100th in coverage, 70th in run defense and 75th in tackling. Arizona’s front has not faced a team that can run like this Oregon State offense and their 3.0 ypc allowed should drop tremendously against Oregon State that averages 5.45 ypc. Returning 2022 PAC 12 offensive freshman of the year Damien Martinez knows how to make people miss and look silly. Arizona’s offense has looked a lot better under new QB Noah Fifita but De Laura may even be back - either way they should score too against the Oregon State team that has struggled at tackling, ranking 126th in PFF. In FEI, both offenses outrank the defenses in almost every category and by an average of 45+ ranks. Both offenses have been stellar in long drive and short drive situations - an area where both defenses have struggled. Both teams rack up the penalties (ranking 105th and 115th) which typically leads to more points, either extending drives or putting offenses behind the chains where they need to be more aggressive. I like our chances here.
 
I like the over in the wvu/ucf game, think I’d stick on that, I actually think wvu could pull the outright on ucf.

Agree isu will score on bears, really like that over, I’m not convinced isu d will be able to stop bears passing game tho, they havnt faced but one good offense and that team hung 50 on them: totally agree but isu qb and offense improving tho. My concern for their d is they get no pressure and Bears passing game been very good when Shapen is healthy, he has time I believe he will put up numbers.


Everything screams Ducks to me but that is often the case when utes play top pac12 teams yet those fuckers just find ways to win! Whittimgham has to be one the best most underrated coaches in America! Utes have won 27 straight at home if you throw out the no fans covid year which I do. While I agree w ducks as I think not only do they have the vastly superior offense but the d is very good, hard to find points for utes but I just dunno if I can lay a td against utes at home? They have beat me so many times over the years! Lol. Think I’ll just stay away from that one and hopefully kicking myself as you cash w ducks!!

How the hell did asu keep udub high powered offense from scoring a td?? That baffling to me: still scratching my head! Lol.

Gl this week brotha
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 9 Results: 5-5 (-0.56 units)
Season YTD: 50-47 (-3.85 units)

Just one for tonight, no time for writeup:

Week 10:
Duke -6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
 
Why was Riley not on any injury reports? Argh shoulda figured with line move but had no idea

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 50-48 (-4.95 units)

Sorry no writeups as the wifey’s sick and on baby duty- but pulled an all nighter digging into card and focusing on what’s ripe and what’s a trap. We firing away. LOVE THIS CARD. A couple props too - been killing those lately with 2dabank (prop dan) but not been posting - Biggest bet of season on ND - split between ML and points 2.7 units total. all plays 1 unit except Taulia prop is .5x unit with juice for int

Week 10 adds:
Notre Dame -2.5 (-125)
Notre Dame ML (-144)
Nebraska -3 (-104)
Arizona State/Utah Under 39 (-110)
Houston/Baylor Over 57.5 (-115)
MTSU/New Mexico State Over 55 (-109)
Kansas +3.5 (-125)
Alabama -2.5 (-125)
Washington ML (-141)
SMU 1st Half -6.5 (-115)
2 team 6 pt teaser (-120) Auburn -6.5 and Miami FL (Pk)

Props:
Taulia Tagovailia Interceptions over .5 (-170) .5x units
John Rhys Plumnlee over 236.5 passing yards (-115)
Tyler Van Dyke over 259.5 passing yards ( +104)
Damien Martinez over 93.5 rushing yard (-114)
 
DapperDan said:
Why was Riley not on any injury reports? Argh shoulda figured with line move but had no idea

Dapper Dan Picks:
Season YTD: 50-48 (-4.95 units)

Sorry no writeups as the wifey’s sick and on baby duty- but pulled an all nighter digging into card and focusing on what’s ripe and what’s a trap. We firing away. LOVE THIS CARD. A couple props too - been killing those lately with 2dabank (prop dan) but not been posting - Biggest bet of season on ND - split between ML and points 2.7 units total. all plays 1 unit except Taulia prop is .5x unit with juice for int

Week 10 adds:
Notre Dame -2.5 (-125)
Notre Dame ML (-144)
Nebraska -3 (-104)
Arizona State/Utah Under 39 (-110)
Houston/Baylor Over 57.5 (-115)
MTSU/New Mexico State Over 55 (-109)
Kansas +3.5 (-125)
Alabama -2.5 (-125)
Washington ML (-141)
SMU 1st Half -6.5 (-115)
2 team 6 pt teaser (-120) Auburn -6.5 and Miami FL (Pk)

Props:
Taulia Tagovailia Interceptions over .5 (-170) .5x units
John Rhys Plumnlee over 236.5 passing yards (-115)
Tyler Van Dyke over 259.5 passing yards ( +104)
Damien Martinez over 93.5 rushing yard (-114)
Click to expand...
What a great looking card!
 
Knamelis said:
DD,

Good looking card today!..any of your totals “lighting up green” on your sheets? Appreciate you, thanks!
Click to expand...
Thanks - ya so the only other ones that lit up GREEN (besides ones I took ) are - UNT/UTSA - but crazy high total lol 71 both teams love to throw too lol
also
Kentucky/Miss State
and CInn/UCF were close but laid off those so only locked in the two overs
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 10 Results: 5-11 (-8.17 units)
Season YTD: 55-58 (-12.02)

Got crushed last week. The good news is I finally figured out a way to re-create my spreadsheet that's going to save me a sh!tload of time…In the past, for comparing PFF #’s - I always manually input each team's value for every matchup - a very time consuming task that would usually take me about 10 hours to do and I’d be rushing to complete by week's end Friday night and then at that point was so exhausted with it all I would rush my picks….Now I can get the same spreadsheets created in 1/4 of the time and going to do my best to get done every week by Tuesday so I can spend the rest of the week focusing on the card/matchups and situational angles. I think over the last two years as I’ve been getting better at spreadsheeting - I’ve been a little too invested in the season numbers but need to re-focus on situational angles, how teams have been performing lately (some get hot with new QBs or cold with injuries) and watching condensed games…..Anyways we move on and look to salvage the season. This week no write-ups as I literally had the “aha” moment on Thursday afternoon on how to re-create my spreadsheet and got it done late too. Next week will be back with full writeups. I don’t get these totals - I am either spot on and hit in the 1st half or so bad not even 20 points near. But we firing away on 3 unders - Onward and Upward

Week 11:
Indiana +7 (-125) Risking 1.25 units to win 1 units
Maryland (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
NC State -1.5 (-102) Risking 1.02 units to win 1 units
Troy -21 (-120) Risking 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
NW/Wiscy under 43 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Minn ML (-117) Risking 1.17 units to win 1 units
Rutgers +2.5 (-115) Risking 1.76 units to win 1.5 units
Aub/Arkansas Under 49.5 (-103) RIsking 1.03 units to win 1 units
Ole Miss +11.5 (-111) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Duke/UNC Under 51.5 (-105) Risking 1.05 units to win 1 units
2 team 6 pt teaser (-120) Texas -6 and Iowa State -1. Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
 
Dapper Dan Picks:
Week 11 Results: 5-6 (-1.82 units)
Season YTD: 60-64 (-13.84 units)

Let’s get to work. More shit in the AM.

Week 12:
Colorado +4.5 (-112) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 units
Col/Wash State Over 62 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This game lights up green on the spreadsheets for two teams that love to throw the ball over 60% of the time against two passing defenses that are some of the worst in the country. In coverage, Wash State ranks 105th and 107th in tackling. For Colorado in coverage is even worse ranking 119th and 72nd in tackling. Across all FEI categories the offenses have a strong advantage and an average of 20 ranks across all categories. Both teams are going to be very fired up as they are both playing for a bowl game on a Friday night game. Both special teams are some of the worst in the country that should lead to some good field position or points as Colorado’s special teams ranks 110th and Washington State’s ranks 99th. Both defenses are in the bottom 10% of almost all categories including 3rd down conv % and completion % allowed. Both teams also like to play fast as they are in the bottom ¼ of the league in TOP% but in the upper half of plays per game - especially Colorado who ranks 120th in TOP% but 6th in plays per game. On paper - they are pretty equally matched but if you look at the last 4 games (despite losing all of them) Colorado has looked like a much better team as Wash State has often shot themselves in the foot and somehow only put up 7 points against Stanford's defense and 6 against Arizona’s. I think we start off the weekend with a nice + 2 units on Friday night.

Northwestern +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
NW certainly has a lot more to play for - as they need one more win to be bowl eligible at their last home game, where interim head coach, David Braun was named the coach and lost the “interim” tag. This is a revenge conference game as a very different Purdue team has beat them the last two years. Last week their offense showed a spark after Ben Bryant came back after a month of being sidelined and took apart Wisconsin’s defense putting up 24 points. Purdue’s offense also had a record-setting day last weekend but it was against a much weaker defense in Minnesota - they won’t get the several busted coverage free TD’s that the gophers gave them and 353 yards on the ground. Even more impressive lately is NW’s defense who held Wiscy with Mordacai back to only 10 points (3 really but 7 in garbage time). Their defense should win this game as they have a significant advantage over Purdue’s secondary that has been getting eaten up all season and rank 133rd in PFF in coverage, and 77th in tackling. NW’s secondary ranks 78th in coverage and 28th in tackling.

Arizona ML (+100) Risking 1.5 units to win 1.5 units
All the numbers I look at show the wrong team is favored here, and Arizona has been even better at home - so this will be my biggest bet of the weekend most likely. Have you seen this Noah Fifita? He is one dynamic QB and knows how to buy time in the pocket, although he doesn’t need to as Arizona is not only one of the fastest teams at getting the ball out but they are also high completion % short passes, (Fifita is 74 completion % on the year~!). Their offensive line is one of the best at protecting their QB ranking 3rd in pass blocking and across all PFF categories - Arizona’s offense outranks Utah’s defense by an average of 46 ranks. Arizona’s offense ranks 11th overage, 28th in passing, 16th in receiving, 6th in rushing and 53rd in run blocking. According to PFF, Utah’s offense has been one of the worst in the nation, ranking 84th overall, 131st in pass blocking, 118th in passing, 108th in receiving, 34th in rushing and 20th in runblocking. The one strength of this Arizona defense has been there run defense that ranks 60th in PFF and has allowed only 3.4 ypc on the season - ranking 20th. Arizona should be able to get pressure against Utah’s offensive line that has struggled at pass blocking as they rank 32nd in sack%. Utah has won (and covered all but one year) for the last 6 years but this will be one the Wildcats steal from the Ute’s and a great game to watch!
 
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