Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Thus far seeing Boise -5.5 and Texas -1.5. Wow on the latter.
Conference Championship Week - Discussion
- Thread starter Frank Costanza
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KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Both those lines seem shorter than what I expected. Guess playing in Atlanta is worth that much? I'd have Texas -3.5 and Boise at home -7.5 minimum and I do initially plan on betting Vegas and Austin. Curious where the lines move
WolverineWise
Well-Known Member
Ducks -3.5/4.5
WolverineWise
Well-Known Member
SMU -1.5
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Oh yikes, home game so that line seems high to me then even with Navy on deck
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Ugh, was hoping to get points with the Ponies. Liked them much better vs. Miami
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Crazy to think there could still be 5 games remaining for a couple teams who are involved in the conference championship games.
Marsski
MAC Marvel
im booked for friday
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm an ISU fan
I'd so much rather meet up with my mother and friends in a bowl game in San Antonio or Orlando or wherever during Xmas to New Years week than watch us have to finish the season in South Bend where no one can get tickets in mid-December. Hate this with much passion because I obviously would love to win the b12 championship but the season doesn't deserve to end on the road in the Midwest which it will if we win.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
I think so.
I'm in full fade mode against Peanut as this is a big game, and we know what big games entail for him.
I'm in full fade mode against Peanut as this is a big game, and we know what big games entail for him.
WolverineWise
Well-Known Member
Based on current projections PSU is better off losing Saturday. Win and get 1 or 2 seed will have them staring at OSU Tenn UGA instead of playing a Boise at home then ISU/ASU neutral. That’s how stupid this system is by rewarding top 4 to 4 separate conferences.
jdoggoakley
Pretty much a regular
Was thinking the same for Ducks. Lose to Pedo St and they are the 5 seed. 1st round home game against 12 seed and then you get a 2nd round game against Boise, assuming Boise wins and secures the 4 seed. Might be an easier path than winning, getting the 1 seed and facing a Georgia, Tennessee, Texas type 2nd round matchup, no?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Hell I'll even project it out further
Winner of Quack/Smokedawg St is 1 seed, loser is 6. Winner of SEC is #2, loser is #76. Yes I realize that tOSU likely is #8 which means they're below Pedo St but I think that's how this system has to work to save face. Not that I remember their meaningless regular season match because it's been deemed irrelevant.
It's possible Boise gets the #3 if Clemson wins, now that's the drama to me....if Clemson wins, how Boise/b12/Clemson seed out....the one left out is #12 no doubt
Winner of Quack/Smokedawg St is 1 seed, loser is 6. Winner of SEC is #2, loser is #76. Yes I realize that tOSU likely is #8 which means they're below Pedo St but I think that's how this system has to work to save face. Not that I remember their meaningless regular season match because it's been deemed irrelevant.
It's possible Boise gets the #3 if Clemson wins, now that's the drama to me....if Clemson wins, how Boise/b12/Clemson seed out....the one left out is #12 no doubt
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Jesus I even had to rewrite that. The one cocksure thing is Notre Dame #5. They will either be #2 behind Oregon in the final rankings or #1 if Oregon lose on Saturday and while I pull for the Ducks and am certainly no fan of PSU, I also understand the universe Meatballs style and know how cat v duck goes without posting a youtube vid
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
@Frank Costanza I ended up on Texas 1H (bigger bet than game) and game on Saturday. I want to take them again this week at + points.
I am hesitant because of Ewers' turnovers in the RZ. The pick 6 was tipped, but the throw should not have been made imo. Then there was this pass. Ok, it was completed but more than 50% of the time it is a pick.
Bowers' experience/Kirby and the turnovers in RZ plus the "great" pass are hard to get out of my mind.
I am hesitant because of Ewers' turnovers in the RZ. The pick 6 was tipped, but the throw should not have been made imo. Then there was this pass. Ok, it was completed but more than 50% of the time it is a pick.
Bowers' experience/Kirby and the turnovers in RZ plus the "great" pass are hard to get out of my mind.
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Under, at least for the first half. Very big problem with it though...while I think both teams will want to control the ball/clock and shorten the game, will either team be able to stop those runs from gaining chunks of yards? Clearly ISU will have the advantage in the passing game, I'm not sure how much it will be used early on. I like Tyson for ASU a lot but ISU defensive backfield is elite, especially considering they don't get a ton of pressure on the QB. So I'll take the passing game out of the equation like I assume ASU will want to do and just expect a lower scoring 1h. It would still be a forced wager.
Texas was -4 at home to Georgia when they played (per Oddsshark)
WolverineWise
Well-Known Member
WolverineWise
Well-Known Member
If they want conf championships to mean anything they won’t punish Ducks/PSU/Tex/UGA too severely for losing. They have to set a precedent here. To me any two loss team from that group should be above ND. Ya just can’t lose at home to NIlly and not have to play this week and be able to jump any.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
TV and money will always win out but i really wish the conference championship games would get tossed in the garbage, especially with the advent of the enhanced playoff system.
TenPin832
Well-Known Member
I agree, get rid of them or include them as a playoff elimination game and go from there.
Do SEC and Big 10 teams even put full effort into this game? Not putting money on it
GridironGems
The Mel Kiper of CTG
Alabama making the playoff? Line went from +100 to -190 today
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
The more they change the format to keep teams like Alabama out, the easier they make it for us to make it in. I don't have any strong feelings about making it or not. As a fan, of course I'd like to make it. But with 3 losses, and the way that OU game went, I won't argue not making the field. But one of the projections I saw recently had us playing at Notre Dame and if we win that, playing SMU. That's about as friendly as a draw as a team could get in our situation
longshotsws
Active Member
I like Texas in the SECCG.
I’m not certain about Oregon / Penn St. My initial lean is on Oregon. I may be guilty of overthinking this, but from a seeding perspective, it may be more advantageous to lose this game… how do you play a game where both teams have questionable motivation? While common sense, would be to leave it alone, the degenerate in me likes the under.
I’m not certain about Oregon / Penn St. My initial lean is on Oregon. I may be guilty of overthinking this, but from a seeding perspective, it may be more advantageous to lose this game… how do you play a game where both teams have questionable motivation? While common sense, would be to leave it alone, the degenerate in me likes the under.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
When you look at the other choices in other conferences, it has to be Alabama.
TenPin832
Well-Known Member
Exactly what I'm thinking, motivation for big 10 game (and possibly sec) could be for a bye,lose and play 1st round
As for the degenerative aspect, I'm doing a 4 team teaser for beer $
Oregon +4.5
Tulane +4.5
Arz st +7.5
Clemson +8.5
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
If there appears to be anything odd in performance this weekend, these conference championship games will be gone sooner than later. I think we have to approach this weekend much like Bowl season. Wait for live ingame.
bones
Sic Semper Tyrannis!
I may be naive, optimistic or ignorant but I would expect full effort this weekend. You cannot coach or manage a team toward a winning playoff by asking for less than maximum effort. Have to keep your blade sharp and your focus on the execution and excellence. May the coach hold off on some plays he is saving? Yes. Effort or execution will be less than maximum? No. IMO
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Different ways to do it like substituting more often. Not saying they’ll do this but if a coach sees a path that is clearly more advantageous, I wouldn’t put it past him. When they’re not reseeding teams, this is what they’re exposing themselves to.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
It's not naïveté, it's reality. Teams are all going to play their asses off this weekend. Coaches are not wired to mail it in. There's conference championships to be won which entail pride, hardware and incentive bonuses among other things.
longshotsws
Active Member
If one favors Clemson over SMU in the ACCCG and willing to gamble within gambling, consider taking SMU to make the playoffs: No at +400 in lieu of the Clemson ML at +115.
SMU could be in the playoffs with a loss to Clemson, but I’m skeptical.
Bama to make the playoffs at +110 was a gift Sunday morning. It’s now at -350 which sounds about right. Ironically zero NCAA football games have been played since then yet the line moved this much.
SMU could be in the playoffs with a loss to Clemson, but I’m skeptical.
Bama to make the playoffs at +110 was a gift Sunday morning. It’s now at -350 which sounds about right. Ironically zero NCAA football games have been played since then yet the line moved this much.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
If the ACC gets two teams in that leaves one of Bama, Tenn, Ole Miss to get in since we know the big ten is getting 4, Notre Dame, b12, g5...only leaves 3 for the SEC and assume the two in the 'ship get in....should Bama really be -350? Tenn finishing better in conference and the h2h win, I'm just not so certain. Easy for the committee to just take the winner off the ACC game and call it a day
Rusty Trombone
Pretty much a regular
They should totally jump them. SMU with 2 losses and shoulda lost to Duke & Nevada.....it can't just be able final record. SMU would not be favored over Bama on a neutral field.....and isn't that how we should judge who's (in theory) better?
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Doesn't matter, the money grab is only going to get bigger and bigger
It should never matter who "we'd" favor on a neutral, preseason rankings create all of this anyway. I'd never favor OU over anyone in the top 80 at home by three touchdowns but that's not how this should ever work
If 8 of the 12 teams in this fun little tournament come from the big ten and the SEC, it won't even be that much fun to argue it anymore. Just let the two conferences play every year for the title, it would force Notre Dame to join one of them at that point
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