Colin Cowherd's Top 6 upset/underdog covers for 2007

RaiderRed

RaiderRed

Pretty much a regular
Today on the Colin Cowherd ESPN raido show, Colin picked 6 games that in his opinion the dog would win out right or at least cover the spread. 10-2 over the last two years in his underdog picks.

6. Purdue over ND - predicted outright win.
5. Texas A&M over Nebraska - picked a cover.
4. Alabama over LSU - predicted outright win.
3. Kentucky over Florida. - predicted outright win.
2. Arizona St. over USC - predicted a cover.
1. Wisky over Michigan- predicted outright win. (I see Wisky being favored in this game.)
 
As of right now on Sportsbook, both Wisky (-1) and Purdue (-4) are favorites. And unless ND wins more than 1 game before playing Purdue, I'd imagine they'll be 4-5 point dogs when the game actually rolls around (assuming Purdue doesn't lose to one of the MAC teams). At that point, it might be worth looking into ND and the points.

The UK-Florida game seems to be Cowherd's gutsiest prediction. With the question marks surrounding UK's defense and both UF units, I'm not really sure what the point spread should even be (although UF probably will be favored). The UK offense seems to be the only stable factor in the preseason.
 
I agree with your thoughts on the UF/UK game. His rationale behind the projection was Uf's schedule leading up to the game. They have Auburn, at LSU, bye, UK, and then UGA. He thinks that it will be too much for the inexperienced players that UF has to not look ahead to UGA, especially after Auburn and LSU. Also he thought that the young defense of UF would have problems with Woodson and his experienced reciving corps. The bye before the game might scare me off, just because Meyer is too damn good of a coach.
 
-purdue looks good, i would consider laying up to 3 with purdue.
-That florida game i really like, UK may have the best QB in the SEC.
-I will probally play wisky as well just because of all of the returning starters wisky has. Michigan lost so much on defense.
-Alabama outright, i dunno about that, saban is hell of a coach but that is a little too quick of a turnaround. LSU has it's sights set on undefeated.
 
I will make an even bolder prediction for you.

UK beats LSU, NOT Florida. Yeah, I said it - UK is going to beat LSU. They will not beat Florida.

You ask why? Well, the scheduling kills LSU far more than it kills Florida. Here are their respective schedules:

LSU:
10/6 Florida
10/13 @ Kentucky
10/20 Auburn

Florida:
10/6 @ LSU
10/13 BYE
10/20 @ Kentucky
10/27 Georgia

Here's how I see it playing out. As we all expect, LSU avenges last year's disappointing loss to Florida in the home game in Baton Rouge. Since LSU just beat them, Meyer will be taking the UK game very serious, as he wants his team to go out and get back on track. Note that he has a bye week before the game, which would be HUGE to help them get refocused. There's time to prepare and get everything worked out after a tough loss.

For LSU, they have TWO revenge situations before and after coming to Lexington. They host Florida, a big game which they will most likely win, then host Auburn, who also beat them last year. In between these two big games, they must go up to Lexington to play a team they THRASHED last year and won't even take serious. Kentucky will probably be 3-3 at that point with losses to Louisville, Arkansas, and South Carolina, and will not appear to be a major threat to LSU by any means.

So due to the scheduling, you have not only a letdown situation for LSU after the big win over Florida, but a lookahead situation with division rival Auburn on deck. To make matters even worse, you have a coach in Miles who is bound to let his team slip up and play a bad game (because to be quite honest, he's not a very good coach), similar to Ole Miss last year when they nearly lost as 28 point favorites.

I'm going one step above Cowherd and calling for an outright Kentucky win over LSU. If Florida beats LSU, then this is all shot to hell, but I don't see it happening.
 
Nice ... love to see schedule analysis like this. Kentucky will definitely have value in that spot if lsu defeats florida. SANDWICH ! not saying they win outright and of course the line is nowhere to be seen yet.

this is a bold prediction that you have made and i think if the start of the season plays out the way you think that it is well reasoned value.
 
Lindetrain, you will be incorrect regarding your UK/LSU prognostication.

I appreciate the info you post on this forum and consider you to be very insightful, but explain to me how UK gets revenge for the 49-0 "thrashing" they received last season?

A simple letdown, look ahead situation will not do the trick. Your explanation seems fit for an NFL match-up not a college football match-up between two teams with an undeniable disparity in talent.

Also, I do not think you are considering Auburn's status at that point in the season. They will have anywhere between 1-3 losses by Oct 20 when they visit Baton Rouge. Kansas State, Florida, Arkansas -- do you think Auburn goes 3-0 in those games? So what will Auburn be playing for? They will be behind LSU and probably Alabama, Arkansas in the SEC West at that point.

Also, anyone that listens to Cowherd on the radio knows his dislike for Louisiana and Mississippi; he has made comments on multiple shows about these states. I was expecting to see LSU on this list as I opened the thread.
 
Blue_Chip said:
A simple letdown, look ahead situation will not do the trick. Your explanation seems fit for an NFL match-up not a college football match-up between two teams with an undeniable disparity in talent.
Click to expand...

You know as well as I do that an undeniable disparity in talent does not fully determine the outcome of a game when it comes to college sports. Obviously my prediction is a bold one and I assumed there would be atleast one person to tell me how dumb I am, but I refuse to write Kentucky off in this situation simply because LSU blasted them last year. It was an absolutely horrible spot for UK to even come close, as LSU was coming off an embarrassing mistake-filled loss in the Swamp. You know as well as I do that Kentucky greatly improved late in the season, as proven by their near-win in Knoxville and thrashing of Clemson. The team they were when they traveled to Baton Rouge is nothing compared to the team they were by the end of the year (and should be this year).

Now obviously if LSU is in that same situation as last year, coming off a bad loss, this is all nonsense. But I anticipate LSU bashes Florida, and goes through the entire week not even concerning themselves with Kentucky because of how bad they beat the Cats last year. They have had two bad games against far lesser competition the last two years against Arkansas and Ole Miss, struggling both times as heavy favorites. It is not absurd to consider Kentucky here, a team who has taken good Tennessee, Florida, Georgia, and LSU teams to the wire every once in a while.
 
Good discussion gentleman.

Like Kyle..I love schedule analysis and looking far ahead..very key in cappin
 
lindetrain said:
Obviously my prediction is a bold one and I assumed there would be atleast one person to tell me how dumb I am, but I refuse to write Kentucky off in this situation simply because LSU blasted them last year.
Click to expand...

I am not calling you dumb, I just disagree. Also, Ole Miss v. LSU is a Southern rivalry and a close game almost every season; therefore, you should not have an ATS consideration regarding that game.
 
RaiderRed said:
Today on the Colin Cowherd ESPN raido show, Colin picked 6 games that in his opinion the dog would win out right or at least cover the spread. 10-2 over the last two years in his underdog picks.

6. Purdue over ND - predicted outright win.
5. Texas A&M over Nebraska - picked a cover.
4. Alabama over LSU - predicted outright win.
3. Kentucky over Florida. - predicted outright win.
2. Arizona St. over USC - predicted a cover.
1. Wisky over Michigan- predicted outright win. (I see Wisky being favored in this game.)
Click to expand...


Bumping this for reference.

6, LOSS purdue was a 21.5 point favorite and won by 14 ( he thought they would be dogged.
5. WIN tamu was a 1.5-2 point dog to nebraska and won by 22
4. PUSH alabama was a 7 point dog and lost by 7
3. LOSS kentucky was a 7 point dog and lost by 8
2. LOSS Arizona st was a 3 point dog and lost by 20
1. WIN Wisconsin was a 2.5 point dog and won by 16

He went 2-3-1 last year. Assuming the 10-2 record from before is accurate , and no reason not to, that brings his record over the last three years to 12-5-1.

His outright wins were 2-2 but one of those was a 21.5 point favorite.
 
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Nice call Linde!

I've heard enough of this guy to know that he's not as good as he thinks he is. I called him up and talked smack to him once when he was a local here in Portland. He is just a loud mouth that gives strong opinions, so people listen. He doesn't know more than anybody else.

I would lay -110 that any of the top 10-25 cappers here would beat him in a season long contest.
 
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some more stuff from cowherd for this year:

Colin's College Football Locks
Here are the Herd's college football locks of the year. (Colin's pick to win or cover is in bold)


<table class="tablehead widetable" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="100%"><tbody><tr class="oddrow" valign="top"><td>West Virginia at Colorado</td> <td>Colorado's third straight home game.They play an easy game the week before against my alma mater (Eastern Washington), and this game kick starts a four-game stretch that's tough for Colorado, and they've got to win the first game. It's a night game out west -- tough for the Mountaineers. Take the Buffalos to win.</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Notre Dame at Michigan State</td> <td>Notre Dame will sell the farm on Michigan the week before. Michigan State returns a very good QB. Michigan State has a great head coach in Mark Dantonio, and the Spartans play their best games against the biggest opponents. Michigan State beats Notre Dame soundly.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>Alabama at Clemson</td> <td>Clemson is worth two blown games every year. Nick Saban is great when he gets time, and he's got a whole offseason to prepare for this opener. Clemson loses to Alabama despite being at home. </td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>Missouri at Texas</td> <td>Huge trap game for Texas. Texas is coming off their big game with Oklahoma. Missouri faces a non-rival the week before and totally zones in on Texas. Missouri beats Texas handily in Austin.</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>LSU at South Carolina</td> <td>The week before LSU is at Florida, the week after -- at Georgia. Spurrier faces Kentucky the week before. LSU is a sitting duck and struggled with South Carolina last year. LSU has QB issues and the Gamecocks will be better at home next year.</td></tr></tbody></table>


<table class="tableheadFixWidth" border="0" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1" width="300"><tbody><tr class="stathead"><td colspan="2">Colin's End of Year College Football Rankings</td> </tr> <tr class="colhead" valign="top"> <td>Rank</td> <td>Team</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>5.</td> <td> Wisconsin</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>4.</td> <td>Oklahoma</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>3.</td> <td>Ohio State</td> </tr> <tr class="evenrow" valign="top"> <td>2.</td> <td>USC</td> </tr> <tr class="oddrow" valign="top"> <td>1.</td> <td>Florida</td> </tr> </tbody></table>

Close Calls: Georgia (Their schedule is too tough!) and Missouri (Great QB, but Oklahoma is in their head.)
 
Clemson loses to Alabama despite being at home.

Not exactly inspiring analysis.

thanks for these though.

Then again , i was checking weather reports for a tulane home game last year .........
 
vegaskyle said:
Clemson loses to Alabama despite being at home.

Not exactly inspiring analysis.

thanks for these though.

Then again , i was checking weather reports for a tulane home game last year .........
Click to expand...

:36_11_6:

I remember someone on the net doing same thing for MAC championship game at Ford Field last year:seeya:
 
<TABLE class="tablehead widetable" cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>LSU at South Carolina</TD><TD>The week before LSU is at Florida, the week after -- at Georgia. Spurrier faces Kentucky the week before. LSU is a sitting duck and struggled with South Carolina last year. LSU has QB issues and the Gamecocks will be better at home next year.


Except LSU is NOT at Georgia the following week. LSU goes home after a brutal two-game road trip.

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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