CFP: Cincinnati vs. Alabama Discussion Thread

Posted below, from right after lunch.

Not new news. Sucks nonetheless.

Mike Rodai
Nick Saban on ESPN on John Metchie: “We haven’t confirmed it yet but we’re pretty certain that he has a pretty significant knee injury."
 
Metchie‘s absence will magnify the importance of Jameson Williams. Cincy‘s ability to handle him will be huge. Obviously there‘s more to it than this but checking the 40 time of Cincy‘s cornerbacks would be a start.
 
I woulda rather been getting these points against uga, just cause dawgs offense not as scary, still think I like Cincy. They can play with anyone imo,
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Metchie‘s absence will magnify the importance of Jameson Williams.
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More so, I think it will magnify the importance of working on increased immersion of Brooks, Holden and Earle (sounds like he will be back) into things. Bolden and Williams, obviously, are the known commodities at WR. These other guys have to step up. Fortunately, Bama has 3-plus weeks to get there. I've no doubt it will but defer to gps.
 
which bama oline will we see, the one that was abused by auburn and allowed a ton of pressure on Young all year or the group who came out and gave him all kinds of time against one the best pass rushes in the county? i hadnt seen that version of bama line up until that game, i dont know if that means they will now play that well every game going forward or not?
 
2daBank said:
which bama oline will we see, the one that was abused by auburn and allowed a ton of pressure on Young all year or the group who came out and gave him all kinds of time against one the best pass rushes in the county? i hadnt seen that version of bama line up until that game, i dont know if that means they will now play that well every game going forward or not?
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I mentioned it last week, but in the games where the OL really struggled (aTm, Florida, AU, and LSU), Bryce spent almost all of the play clock making checks and trying to get into the perfect play. 3 of those 4 were in pretty loud environments which made it even harder to communicate, and by the time we snapped the ball, the defense knew that Alabama wasn't snapping on 2 because we had no time and basically had a head start on stationary O linemen. Also against AU, the center was playing on a bad ankle. He didn't play Saturday. Against UGA, we used much more tempo which basically removed Jordan Davis from the equation and got the plays off with more time on the clock so the defense had to react to the snap and not the clock. The loss of Williams against AU could not be overstated, because once he burned the UGA secondary, they had to account for that the rest of the game. AU had the luxury of not being as worried about the deep ball so they could pin their ears back. And maybe UGA was a little overconfident in their ability to get pressure without blitzing. The whole team looked shocked by mid 2q

This Alabama team has been inconsistent and immature pretty much all year, but credit to the staff that got their best performance of the season when it mattered most. Based on history, I would count on the team being ready for the semifinal game and play more like they did against UGA than they did against AU.
 
Rumors that starting CB Josh Jobe will have surgery on his turf toe and will miss the playoffs. Also looking like Chris Allen, who was a starting OLB hurt against Miami, will be back
 
gps_3 said:
I mentioned it last week, but in the games where the OL really struggled (aTm, Florida, AU, and LSU), Bryce spent almost all of the play clock making checks and trying to get into the perfect play. 3 of those 4 were in pretty loud environments which made it even harder to communicate, and by the time we snapped the ball, the defense knew that Alabama wasn't snapping on 2 because we had no time and basically had a head start on stationary O linemen. Also against AU, the center was playing on a bad ankle. He didn't play Saturday. Against UGA, we used much more tempo which basically removed Jordan Davis from the equation and got the plays off with more time on the clock so the defense had to react to the snap and not the clock. The loss of Williams against AU could not be overstated, because once he burned the UGA secondary, they had to account for that the rest of the game. AU had the luxury of not being as worried about the deep ball so they could pin their ears back. And maybe UGA was a little overconfident in their ability to get pressure without blitzing. The whole team looked shocked by mid 2q

This Alabama team has been inconsistent and immature pretty much all year, but credit to the staff that got their best performance of the season when it mattered most. Based on history, I would count on the team being ready for the semifinal game and play more like they did against UGA than they did against AU.
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def tend to agree with that, still not sure that means they cover 14, i have no doubt they win but im somewhat confident cincy will play with them, id def have felt better with them against uga but i think this so important they dont get here and get blown out, pretty sure bama will also be getting the absolute best version of cincy they have to offer.
 
I like Alabama. Cincinnati was probably prepping for Georgia the last month knowing they could never get above #4 and they are probably disappointed. Also concerned Bearcats will have a letdown after their big win this weekend. Tough for them to be their best against Alabama.
 
RetroVK said:
I like Alabama. Cincinnati was probably prepping for Georgia the last month knowing they could never get above #4 and they are probably disappointed.
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they have 3 weeks to change their mindset, i cant imagine that effects them. more so uga was a better matchup for them, ill still prob be taking the points tho.,
 
I think Hutchinson is clearly deserving of being a finalist. I'm just confused to why you wouldn't include Anderson too? I see a lot of people saying they play a different position, which is sort of true, but an OLB in a 3-4 plays with his hand in the dirt as often as a DE in a 4-3
 
Think what Bama did vs UGA was in the 99% of their offensive range against that defense. They could play that game again 100 times and maybe once they match the points and yardage they had.

I say this because Cincy's defense is legit good. They have 4-5 NFL players. And key to this game is those players rush the passer and are in the secondary so they can somewhat match up.

The problem is Bama should still have some success on offense but can the Cincy offense keep up? Despite the accolades Ridder gets, the team success is based off running the ball. I don't know if they can here vs a great Bama run defense.

More troubling is the PFF grades for the 5 Cincy OL are 58, 64, 67, 61 and 67. Think the CFB OL average is around 65 so CIN has an average OL at best...but that's playing against defenses nowhere near as talented as they will see here. There's a decent chance they get destroyed up front.

Think if you like the Cincy defense to bang and keep them in it then you have to play the 1H over the FG. If the Cincy OL gets nuked like I suspect then the D will be on the field A LOT and may wear down in the 2H.

On the other hand the Under 58 looks like a very fine play.
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Think what Bama did vs UGA was in the 99% of their offensive range against that defense. They could play that game again 100 times and maybe once they match the points and yardage they had.

I say this because Cincy's defense is legit good. They have 4-5 NFL players. And key to this game is those players rush the passer and are in the secondary so they can somewhat match up.

The problem is Bama should still have some success on offense but can the Cincy offense keep up? Despite the accolades Ridder gets, the team success is based off running the ball. I don't know if they can here vs a great Bama run defense.

More troubling is the PFF grades for the 5 Cincy OL are 58, 64, 67, 61 and 67. Think the CFB OL average is around 65 so CIN has an average OL at best...but that's playing against defenses nowhere near as talented as they will see here. There's a decent chance they get destroyed up front.

Think if you like the Cincy defense to bang and keep them in it then you have to play the 1H over the FG. If the Cincy OL gets nuked like I suspect then the D will be on the field A LOT and may wear down in the 2H.

On the other hand the Under 58 looks like a very fine play.
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Good posts
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Think what Bama did vs UGA was in the 99% of their offensive range against that defense. They could play that game again 100 times and maybe once they match the points and yardage they had.

I say this because Cincy's defense is legit good. They have 4-5 NFL players. And key to this game is those players rush the passer and are in the secondary so they can somewhat match up.

The problem is Bama should still have some success on offense but can the Cincy offense keep up? Despite the accolades Ridder gets, the team success is based off running the ball. I don't know if they can here vs a great Bama run defense.

More troubling is the PFF grades for the 5 Cincy OL are 58, 64, 67, 61 and 67. Think the CFB OL average is around 65 so CIN has an average OL at best...but that's playing against defenses nowhere near as talented as they will see here. There's a decent chance they get destroyed up front.

Think if you like the Cincy defense to bang and keep them in it then you have to play the 1H over the FG. If the Cincy OL gets nuked like I suspect then the D will be on the field A LOT and may wear down in the 2H.

On the other hand the Under 58 looks like a very fine play.
Click to expand...
I don't know if I'd say 99%, but probably not far off. I think UGA got punched in the mouth and had no idea how to respond. It's going to be interesting to see if Alabama is a team peaking at the right time or not, but for me, it's hard to bet against Saban with a month to prepare. Look at the big neutral site openers and semi final games the last decade. The team will be prepared. One of these days, it won't be enough, I'm just not sure this is the year.

It may be a simplistic way of looking at it, but Bryce Young is the clear best QB in the playoffs. When is the last time a team won without an elite QB? 2015 when Alabama won with Jake Coker, but they also had Derrick Henry on that team. And honestly, if not for some game changing special teams plays, Clemson with Deshaun Watson would've won that game. Outside of that, I guess you could point to 2017 when UGA with Jake Fromm beat Baker and OU. And they would've beaten a struggling Jalen Hurts if Tua hadn't come in at halftime. I think it takes a special QB to win these days, and will take a monumental effort for a team without that to win 2 games against top 4 competition
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Think what Bama did vs UGA was in the 99% of their offensive range against that defense. They could play that game again 100 times and maybe once they match the points and yardage they had.

I say this because Cincy's defense is legit good. They have 4-5 NFL players. And key to this game is those players rush the passer and are in the secondary so they can somewhat match up.

The problem is Bama should still have some success on offense but can the Cincy offense keep up? Despite the accolades Ridder gets, the team success is based off running the ball. I don't know if they can here vs a great Bama run defense.

More troubling is the PFF grades for the 5 Cincy OL are 58, 64, 67, 61 and 67. Think the CFB OL average is around 65 so CIN has an average OL at best...but that's playing against defenses nowhere near as talented as they will see here. There's a decent chance they get destroyed up front.

Think if you like the Cincy defense to bang and keep them in it then you have to play the 1H over the FG. If the Cincy OL gets nuked like I suspect then the D will be on the field A LOT and may wear down in the 2H.

On the other hand the Under 58 looks like a very fine play.
Click to expand...

Cincy oline is really big for a group of 5 tho. I think that gives them a little hope, seemed to me like the often struggled against smaller defensive fronts. Not saying they gonna push bama around by any stretch but I do think they built to be able to compete.
 
gps_3 said:
I don't know if I'd say 99%, but probably not far off. I think UGA got punched in the mouth and had no idea how to respond. It's going to be interesting to see if Alabama is a team peaking at the right time or not, but for me, it's hard to bet against Saban with a month to prepare. Look at the big neutral site openers and semi final games the last decade. The team will be prepared. One of these days, it won't be enough, I'm just not sure this is the year.

It may be a simplistic way of looking at it, but Bryce Young is the clear best QB in the playoffs. When is the last time a team won without an elite QB? 2015 when Alabama won with Jake Coker, but they also had Derrick Henry on that team. And honestly, if not for some game changing special teams plays, Clemson with Deshaun Watson would've won that game. Outside of that, I guess you could point to 2017 when UGA with Jake Fromm beat Baker and OU. And they would've beaten a struggling Jalen Hurts if Tua hadn't come in at halftime. I think it takes a special QB to win these days, and will take a monumental effort for a team without that to win 2 games against top 4 competition
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far as winning im with ya 100%, i dont think there much of any chance cincy beats them. i do think staying close and making it a respectable game is incredibly important to them, maybe more so than winning!! they should have a desire like no team ever not to look bad, being the 1st group of 5 let in a huge accomplishment but last thing they can do is show up and get blasted, that would all but crush another group of 5 chances from ever getting in as they would always point back to this, no team wants to be a footnote looked back on as "see what happens to the little guy when we gave them a chance"! i think that a driving motivator for their preparation the next 3 weeks.. i like bama by 7-10ish, i really believe cincy can stay within the number.
 
Interesting couple of stats learned from Bet the Board podcast

1. Ritter has not completed a pass on "3rd and long" for a TD all year. Did not define "long" but I am assuming 7 or more yds

2. Cincy has only attempted 17 field goals all year and are only 10 for 17
 
B.A.R. said:
I'd assume these guys have symptoms to be getting tested?
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Alabama players voted to have no activities outside the team hotel or practice field before the game. Think it will be a surprise to not have the full team available. One of the players said that they only test symptomatic people since the whole team is vaccinated
 
gps_3 said:
Alabama players voted to have no activities outside the team hotel or practice field before the game. Think it will be a surprise to not have the full team available. One of the players said that they only test symptomatic people since the whole team is vaccinated
Click to expand...
I saw that quote yesterday. Glad they are doing it right.
 
gps_3 said:
Alabama players voted to have no activities outside the team hotel or practice field before the game. Think it will be a surprise to not have the full team available. One of the players said that they only test symptomatic people since the whole team is vaccinated
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Hate to say it but I’m not even in love with the idea of taking the points w cincy anymore. I wouldn’t lay it either but thought for sure I’d be on cincy and I just can’t bring myself to do it. Pretty sure I’ve found a few good props that I feel more confident in cashing than worrying bout side, lol.
 
2daBank said:
Hate to say it but I’m not even in love with the idea of taking the points w cincy anymore. I wouldn’t lay it either but thought for sure I’d be on cincy and I just can’t bring myself to do it. Pretty sure I’ve found a few good props that I feel more confident in cashing than worrying bout side, lol.
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I feel dumb even teasing Cincinnati to 27pts but I did it. I’m figuring if Cincinnati can score a TD in each half Bama will need 42 to beat me. I’ll take my chances. I bumped Mich to +20.5 and taking my chances there that this is a trench warfare. I don’t trust Georgia’s QB
 
wiseplayer said:
I feel dumb even teasing Cincinnati to 27pts but I did it. I’m figuring if Cincinnati can score a TD in each half Bama will need 42 to beat me. I’ll take my chances. I bumped Mich to +20.5 and taking my chances there that this is a trench warfare. I don’t trust Georgia’s QB
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I can’t imagine they lose by more than that. Think I would have teased bama down tho, lol
 
wiseplayer said:
Damn, you think they’re getting that high huh?
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I think it's a 42-24 type final score, though I'm starting to think our defense shows up in a big way today. My worry with the over is that if Alabama has an opportunity, they will absolutely burn clock in the 2nd half. Similar to the game against Notre Dame last year. Though this Alabama team is nowhere near as good as last year's team on offense, so maybe they'll have to keep scoring. I don't expect Cincy to give up at any point
 
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