CFL Syndicate 2025

I lost but this makes for great unders moving forward. It’s all good

This is what has not been present the last few seasons. Part of the changes we are seeing. I don’t love losing but I love wipeouts.

Both sides this week were due for reversals and both happened. I can’t bet WPG as a favorite so I missed that one.

Favorites were 0-4 last week now this week is the pushback. Home favorites after week 1 this season are completely cold. This should also stabilize. As I mentioned it’s why I’m pulling back a little there should be more balance now because if not the favorites dog ratio will be so out of hand.

This year could be 55-60% dogs.

In back to back seasons:

2009= 62%
2010= 60.5%


This is my zone and what I desire.
Currently
2025:
Dog wins no points 15-17
Away dogs 67.66%
Home dogs 43% both 6-8 ATS and Straight up

Home dog overs are 9-5 while away dog unders are 12-.6

Eliminate betting games when Ottawa and Edmonton are dogs.
Dogs are 14-7 ATS and 13-8 straight up. This does not include Friday so now it’s 14-8 and 13-9.

It’s not done yet
 
Tonight I’m betting Montreal. Edmonton is the other dog I pass on them

Both of these are home dos so that is not as good but still worthy. If the favored Hamilton takes care of business that is pure gold for dogs going forward.

Bet Montreal half unit for now leaves me room for a bigger bet with a bigger in game line or if Montreal gets the lead and can dominate the whole game I win. I’m good with that.
 
The total: The Elks Have back to back unders which is holding this total at 55.5 if the Elks were 2 overs in a row this total would be >58 so I’m not betting the under but actually hopeful the over occurs again. Come on Fajardo get scoring. If that game goes over that set up under in the last game as well so the schedule is looking sharp in the late game.

Current bet Montreal+2.5 +105 and even though a +3 isn’t available that’s ok.
 

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Dogs in regular season away games since and after the 2008 season are in the photo. That’s why the last few seasons I lost and stopped forcing plays. I lost my confidence that the league is balanced and played some teams based upon lines not data.
 

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The worst away dog since 2008 is Sask at 46.8% this is the only team under 50 %

Sask is also the best away dog under team at 43% unders 41-54-1 under record.
 
my thoughts moving ahead in 2025 all dog teams are included except Edmonton. My confidence is lower on Ottawa.

Edmonton has no games as favorites, that eliminates them on all data plays. If a team doesn’t meander in games as favorites and dog games there’s no pitfalls and line switches.

It becomes Harder to detect strength and weak scheduling situations with a bad team. At least Ottawa has that capability.

Edmonton with Fajardo can move back into relevance if the start winning dog games but for now it’s wait and see.
 
Great home dog teams, there are only 3 teams

Sask
Calgary
Bombers
All these teams hit at 60% the rest of the league not 51.5% for the Argos the rest of the teams are in the 40’s

Montreal had some terrible seasons after Calvillo retired so that’s not the case any more.
 
As I dig deeper Montreal is a very bad home dog in the situation because they have won 2 in a row.

Why is a winning team the last 2 weeks a home dog that’s an indicator of a weak spot.

So yes I have bet Montreal a half unit

No I will not play Edmonton but I think that game has under potential

If Edmonton goes over I’ll stab the under in the Montreal Sask game.
 
I’m remaining conservative tonight. Edmonton doesn’t excite me and Montreal after 2 wins and a home dog is historically bad situation.

Pass on the first game and play Montreal small. They are the best dog

The favorites could sweep this week so yes I am aware of that.

As my other post says I might bite on the under in Sask as well. The under might be the best option.

I’ll Be patient
 
The Elks the last 2 games have been out scored 11-50 in the first 3 quarters the Elks are doing their damage in the 4th quarter when the game is over.

All season the Elks are out scoring their opponents 57-50
 
The first half overs in Elks games are 4-2

The elks are giving up 30+ in all games except the last game against Sask

If this happens again this puts pressure on Fajardo

On the other hand the poor Elks offense is not keeping and making enough drives to keep the defense fresh and creates defense stress.

Elks need to run the ball and get first downs. I know this is obvious but the stats stand out.

The Ticats scoring is Sonething to keep. N eye on. If the Ticats score a lot early what takes place in the 4th quarter with Fajardo
 
Ticats 4th quarter: 96-83 points scored this season. That’s huge.

Ticats have outscored every team in the 4th quarter

Ticats 4th quarter the last 3 games 37-13
 
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The Alouettes have won their last 2 games :

26-25
23-21

Of note in those games have shutout their opponents in the 4th quarter

12-0

9-0


I’m interested in this but the best situation is to wait and if this happens a 3rd time then I’m sure the ROI would support a reversal.
 
spottie2935 said:
Ticats 4th quarter: 96-83 points scored this season. That’s huge.

Ticats have outscored every team in the 4th quarter

Ticats 4th quarter the last 3 games 37-13
Click to expand...
Edmonto has big 4Qs too. I think if the situation is right, a live over opp might present itself in the 2H
 
spottie2935 said:
The Alouettes have won their last 2 games :

26-25
23-21

Of note in those games have shutout their opponents in the 4th quarter

12-0

9-0


I’m interested in this but the best situation is to wait and if this happens a 3rd time then I’m sure the ROI would support a reversal.
Click to expand...

That's most of the basis of My Montreal bet. MBT is only an average QB but their defence is good enough to keep them in the game. And Shawn Lemon is back from his year and a half suspension and is on the active roster tonight. I think he might have a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
 
Hulu said:
That's most of the basis of My Montreal bet. MBT is only an average QB but their defence is good enough to keep them in the game. And Shawn Lemon is back from his year and a half suspension and is on the active roster tonight. I think he might have a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
Click to expand...
MOntreal to come back 3 times in a row in the 4th quarter is a lot. Montreal needs a better start in my opinion. A good D helps the offense get the ball more often and that is great for success.
I love good dog teams
 
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