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CFL Syndicate 2025

spottie2935 said:
Tonight I’m off my rocker as I did my diligence in the data aspect of this matchup.

My findings are that 2 low winning % teams with a home small favorite. The home team finds a way

With Fajardo in place things not stable but improving. I had the Argos as a fade all season and I’m sticking with that tonight.

The dogs have been incredible covering 5 in a row now and the Argos I hope ruin this.

Taking a shot here after last nights “miracle”dog cover. Down 27-10


Elks-3.5 +110
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🙏
 
Even this week is difficult to pick a dog. I’ll be back later in the week.

Edmonton +1.5 on the road? Woof that’s hard to back

Montreal a home dog. They still off the map for me.

Argos no thanks

Calgary started on fire because they of course played well but currently enduring the change in lines. When getting at least +3 they’re good to go. Cross under 3 and their bad history shows.

I’ll photo early season generous lines.
 

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First glance, I think Edmonton should be a short favourite this week unless there is a chance Brown starts for Ottawa. But if its Crum, the Elks should be able to beat them easily.

Also looking at Calgary. Byes have been pretty damn good for teams this year and Sask is all fat and happy off their big win over the cats. The Stamps watched that one from the couch and they will be ready. They may even be a bit insulted to be dogged at home. I'd like to see what Calgary's injury situation is before I pull the trigger on anything there though.
 
One thing to bear in mind in the Sask / Cal matchup...they only play 2 games this year and Calgary won the first so Sask not only needs to win but win by 15+ to get the division tie breaker if that comes into play.

That takes the under off the table because sask could be winning late and still pushing to score more.
 
Hulu said:
One thing to bear in mind in the Sask / Cal matchup...they only play 2 games this year and Calgary won the first so Sask not only needs to win but win by 15+ to get the division tie breaker if that comes into play.

That takes the under off the table because sask could be winning late and still pushing to score more.
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Way off my radar. You’re elite.
 
4 home dogs this week which is bad news. It’s meaningful that there is a miss on parody again. I believe one or 2 upsets this week but not easy to pinpoint any specific.

Patience and ingame might be my best approach.
 
Results through Week 11

Sides 7-11 -4.765*
Totals 5-7 -3.94*
Parlays 4-4 +1.285*
Props 0-1 -1.15*
Live 7-12 -0.665*

Overall 23-35 -9.235*

7-6 over the past 3 weeks for 1.3 units. Slowly heading in the right direction. Onward...


Futures
0.5* Hamilton to win season series vs Toronto +200 - Hamilton leads 1-0, next game labour day
0.25* Ottawa under 10.5 RSW -104 - 3-7 after 10 games
0.5* BC Lions to win Grey Cup +750
0.2* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +1000 - not looking as dumb as it once did
0.25* Justin McInnis under 1200.5 rec yards - 610 yards through 10 games - on pace for 1098 yds
0.25* Shemar Bridges under 1050.5 rec yards - 184 yards through 10 games - on pace for 331 yds
 
1* Winnipeg ML -267
1* Tease WPG pk / SSK +7 +100
Montreal down to their 4th string QB James Morgan and they have a short week to try and get him ready for action. Behind him they have basically 2 emergency backups in Cam Dukes (signed last week) and Shea Patterson (signed this week). They still have multiple defenders and receivers out too. I don't see any way Montreal wins this game.

1* EDM / OTT under 53.5 -106
Edmonton is slowly turning into an underish team since Cody Fajardo took over the offence. They've had 3 straight unders since he took over. He is able to string together a few more first downs than Ford was and he takes his time doing it. He throws a lot of underneath routes because its all their porous OL will allow. On the other side, Dustin Crum is starting after Dru Brown is hurt for the 3rd time this season. In the 3 games that Crum has either started or played a substantial part of, Ottawa has scored 20, 16 & 15 points. He doesn't throw downfield either, its all underneath stuff and QB runs. I think this one should be lined more like 50.5.

0.5* Parlay WPG ML / EDM ML +120
0.5* Parlay WPG ML / EDM ML / BC ML +236
I think the favs dominate this week. All three of these teams have compelling reasons why they are road favs and I think they all get it done although something in my gut tells me BC is a risk so only including it in half.
 
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Ottawa is in a bad QB situation. The problem with Edmonton is the current line. They were away dogs to Montreal a few weeks back and Montreal was also in a bad QB situation. If I had to pick this I would take the points. The margin or error for Edmonton is small and if they play bad no matter who the QB I don’t trust them. Especially as road chalk.

No offense just being objective and giving you ideas.
 
I am watching for the right time to add a future on Montreal to win the cup. Right now they are +475 but that number will get better until they get healthy and start to win again. With a couple more losses, it could go to +600 or more.

Once they get Davis Alexander back as well as all the other starters they are missing, this team will be formidable once again. DL Mustafah Johnson, S Marc-Antoine Duquoy, receivers Mack and Philpot, RB Erlington, G Callendar. All key players out right now. This is a well coached team, they will bounce back.

In the CFL its not about how hot you are in august, its about hot you are in October and I think the ALs, when healthy, could come into Hamilton and beat the Tiger-Cats in the east final. The cats are much improved but still a paper tiger (ugh!) and not a championship calibre team.

Its just a matter of picking the right time to get on the train.
 
Hulu said:
I am watching for the right time to add a future on Montreal to win the cup. Right now they are +475 but that number will get better until they get healthy and start to win again. With a couple more losses, it could go to +600 or more.

Once they get Davis Alexander back as well as all the other starters they are missing, this team will be formidable once again. DL Mustafah Johnson, S Marc-Antoine Duquoy, receivers Mack and Philpot, RB Erlington, G Callendar. All key players out right now. This is a well coached team, they will bounce back.

In the CFL its not about how hot you are in august, its about hot you are in October and I think the ALs, when healthy, could come into Hamilton and beat the Tiger-Cats in the east final. The cats are much improved but still a paper tiger (ugh!) and not a championship calibre team.

Its just a matter of picking the right time to get on the train.
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I actually think they could cover this week
 
spottie2935 said:
I actually think they could cover this week
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I agree in the sense that the line is a bit high. But do you really want to put your money on a Qb who started the year on the practice roster and has 0 starts in the league? Its anybody's guess as to whether he rises to the occassion or flames out.
 
Betting big dogs there is lots if time to get down in in game because even a TD lead doesn’t deflate the line too much early in the game. But I’ve got my trigger ready after the first few minutes. If Montreal drives I’m down right away
 
Montreal on a 5 day week too with only 1 practice day this week.

If Morgan can have some success early and keep some TOP and the defence fresh, they stand a chance of staying in the game. But if they have a few too many 2 and outs, winnipeg will just wear the ALs defence down in the second half and the game will snowball.

@spottie2935 can you look up how teams on a 5 day week playing teams on a 7 day week do ATS?
 
Hulu said:
Interesting...looks more like the market overreacts tp the rest disparity
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It’s the books or linesmaker reacting first with the assumption you just made

On average the dog beats the line by 5 points and as an average that includes the losses. Without looking at it closer that means the wins should be on average +7 ats margin.



This is why in game is valuable even if Montreal gets a lead and the line drops I’m not shy to get in on a bad line. Still comes back to bankroll mgmt and a move like in chess be prepared for the next score.

Look this is just one of those games we are in the dark in but have a huge feeling somehow Montreal gets this cover. All this bull crud stats and scores lately now in a scheduled deficit.

Sometimes They walk you to a path of death. This has that feel.

Lastly about the photo. There is a number to the right of the ats record 10-4

It says +6 , that’s the record for +6 teasers. 12 of the 14 covered the teasers.
 
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spottie2935 said:
It’s the books or linesmaker reacting first with the assumption you just made

On average the dog beats the line by 5 points and as an average that includes the losses. Without looking at it closer that means the wins should be on average +7 ats margin.



This is why in game is valuable even if Montreal gets a lead and the line drops I’m not shy to get in on a bad line. Still comes back to bankroll mgmt and a move like in chess be prepared for the next score.

Look this is just one of those games we are in the dark in but have a huge feeling somehow Montreal gets this cover. All this bull crud stats and scores lately now in a scheduled deficit.

Sometimes They walk you to a path of death. This has that feel.

Lastly about the photo. There is a number to the right of the ats record 10-4

It says +6 , that’s the record for +6 teasers. 12 of the 14 covered the teasers.
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Now that’s it’s +7 Montreal is probably a good bet. Like I said, I am not in a hurry to put money on James Morgan pregame but I will watch live and see what pops.
 
Looking at the under in Ott tomorrow, its amazing how the improvement in Edmonton's defence has coincided with Fajardo's time starting.

Over the first 5 games, the Elks gave up an avg of 34ppg and never surrendered less than 31 in a game.

In the 4 games under Fajardo, they have given up an avg of 22.8ppg and not given up more than 28 in a game. That's an 11.2 point improvement, quite a drastic shift.

When you have a QB who can consistently string a few first downs together and then set the defence up in decent position with decent rest, it makes a world of difference.
 
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