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CFL Syndicate 2025

I lost but this makes for great unders moving forward. It’s all good

This is what has not been present the last few seasons. Part of the changes we are seeing. I don’t love losing but I love wipeouts.

Both sides this week were due for reversals and both happened. I can’t bet WPG as a favorite so I missed that one.

Favorites were 0-4 last week now this week is the pushback. Home favorites after week 1 this season are completely cold. This should also stabilize. As I mentioned it’s why I’m pulling back a little there should be more balance now because if not the favorites dog ratio will be so out of hand.

This year could be 55-60% dogs.

In back to back seasons:

2009= 62%
2010= 60.5%


This is my zone and what I desire.
Currently
2025:
Dog wins no points 15-17
Away dogs 67.66%
Home dogs 43% both 6-8 ATS and Straight up

Home dog overs are 9-5 while away dog unders are 12-.6

Eliminate betting games when Ottawa and Edmonton are dogs.
Dogs are 14-7 ATS and 13-8 straight up. This does not include Friday so now it’s 14-8 and 13-9.

It’s not done yet
 
Tonight I’m betting Montreal. Edmonton is the other dog I pass on them

Both of these are home dos so that is not as good but still worthy. If the favored Hamilton takes care of business that is pure gold for dogs going forward.

Bet Montreal half unit for now leaves me room for a bigger bet with a bigger in game line or if Montreal gets the lead and can dominate the whole game I win. I’m good with that.
 
The total: The Elks Have back to back unders which is holding this total at 55.5 if the Elks were 2 overs in a row this total would be >58 so I’m not betting the under but actually hopeful the over occurs again. Come on Fajardo get scoring. If that game goes over that set up under in the last game as well so the schedule is looking sharp in the late game.

Current bet Montreal+2.5 +105 and even though a +3 isn’t available that’s ok.
 

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Dogs in regular season away games since and after the 2008 season are in the photo. That’s why the last few seasons I lost and stopped forcing plays. I lost my confidence that the league is balanced and played some teams based upon lines not data.
 

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The worst away dog since 2008 is Sask at 46.8% this is the only team under 50 %

Sask is also the best away dog under team at 43% unders 41-54-1 under record.
 
my thoughts moving ahead in 2025 all dog teams are included except Edmonton. My confidence is lower on Ottawa.

Edmonton has no games as favorites, that eliminates them on all data plays. If a team doesn’t meander in games as favorites and dog games there’s no pitfalls and line switches.

It becomes Harder to detect strength and weak scheduling situations with a bad team. At least Ottawa has that capability.

Edmonton with Fajardo can move back into relevance if the start winning dog games but for now it’s wait and see.
 
Great home dog teams, there are only 3 teams

Sask
Calgary
Bombers
All these teams hit at 60% the rest of the league not 51.5% for the Argos the rest of the teams are in the 40’s

Montreal had some terrible seasons after Calvillo retired so that’s not the case any more.
 
As I dig deeper Montreal is a very bad home dog in the situation because they have won 2 in a row.

Why is a winning team the last 2 weeks a home dog that’s an indicator of a weak spot.

So yes I have bet Montreal a half unit

No I will not play Edmonton but I think that game has under potential

If Edmonton goes over I’ll stab the under in the Montreal Sask game.
 
I’m remaining conservative tonight. Edmonton doesn’t excite me and Montreal after 2 wins and a home dog is historically bad situation.

Pass on the first game and play Montreal small. They are the best dog

The favorites could sweep this week so yes I am aware of that.

As my other post says I might bite on the under in Sask as well. The under might be the best option.

I’ll Be patient
 
The Elks the last 2 games have been out scored 11-50 in the first 3 quarters the Elks are doing their damage in the 4th quarter when the game is over.

All season the Elks are out scoring their opponents 57-50
 
The first half overs in Elks games are 4-2

The elks are giving up 30+ in all games except the last game against Sask

If this happens again this puts pressure on Fajardo

On the other hand the poor Elks offense is not keeping and making enough drives to keep the defense fresh and creates defense stress.

Elks need to run the ball and get first downs. I know this is obvious but the stats stand out.

The Ticats scoring is Sonething to keep. N eye on. If the Ticats score a lot early what takes place in the 4th quarter with Fajardo
 
Ticats 4th quarter: 96-83 points scored this season. That’s huge.

Ticats have outscored every team in the 4th quarter

Ticats 4th quarter the last 3 games 37-13
 
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The Alouettes have won their last 2 games :

26-25
23-21

Of note in those games have shutout their opponents in the 4th quarter

12-0

9-0


I’m interested in this but the best situation is to wait and if this happens a 3rd time then I’m sure the ROI would support a reversal.
 
spottie2935 said:
Ticats 4th quarter: 96-83 points scored this season. That’s huge.

Ticats have outscored every team in the 4th quarter

Ticats 4th quarter the last 3 games 37-13
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Edmonto has big 4Qs too. I think if the situation is right, a live over opp might present itself in the 2H
 
spottie2935 said:
The Alouettes have won their last 2 games :

26-25
23-21

Of note in those games have shutout their opponents in the 4th quarter

12-0

9-0


I’m interested in this but the best situation is to wait and if this happens a 3rd time then I’m sure the ROI would support a reversal.
Click to expand...

That's most of the basis of My Montreal bet. MBT is only an average QB but their defence is good enough to keep them in the game. And Shawn Lemon is back from his year and a half suspension and is on the active roster tonight. I think he might have a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
 
Hulu said:
That's most of the basis of My Montreal bet. MBT is only an average QB but their defence is good enough to keep them in the game. And Shawn Lemon is back from his year and a half suspension and is on the active roster tonight. I think he might have a bit of a chip on his shoulder.
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MOntreal to come back 3 times in a row in the 4th quarter is a lot. Montreal needs a better start in my opinion. A good D helps the offense get the ball more often and that is great for success.
I love good dog teams
 
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spottie2935 said:
The total: The Elks Have back to back unders which is holding this total at 55.5 if the Elks were 2 overs in a row this total would be >58 so I’m not betting the under but actually hopeful the over occurs again. Come on Fajardo get scoring. If that game goes over that set up under in the last game as well so the schedule is looking sharp in the late game.

Current bet Montreal+2.5 +105 and even though a +3 isn’t available that’s ok.
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In this post I want it to be know that it’s confirmation of all favorites this week back to back sweeps are very rare.

It’s shouldn’t sweep again so for me the way I see it, advantage dogs.

Let it be known I love good dogs and that’s where I’m searching this week.

BC at 3-5 it’s time for them to step up and make a move. They still have a strong evaluation being favored a lot. They just are not consistent. This now a good dog.

If NFL and college weren’t looking and I wanted to take on more risk I would take a dog then chase a favorite. I’ve never seen 3 weeks in a row with sweeps but in gambling that week could happen.

BC on Thursday looks like a good start this week.
 
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I posted these lines earlier last week

BC will be a bet and I like that they will be an early week game so I can adjust if they fail.

F me Ottawa is a play because it’s the Argos but just looking at this seem dangerous

Montreal a bounce back ? Or just a horrible team right now ? Technically Edmonton didn’t cover. Technically 2 bad teams.

If one looks at Montreals schedule the only wins and covers are against not so good teams.

Winnipeg as a dog? It’s the right way to play Winnipeg but are they a dog for a reason. This doesn’t seem like their season.

Winnipeg sucks for me. They killed it as favorites the last few season and I lost. Now they are regressing and dogs I don’t want to buy in on them when they are regressing. Mentally blacklisted team for me. I actually want them to succeed so the climb back into a trustworthy team. That’s when they become faded.

I love teams like Toronto and Montreal and similar. Now you see it now you don’t.
 

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Best bet #1

BC

after last weeks favorites makes this even better.



Play #2
Montreal gets back this week. Edmonton away *4.5 is not enough. Even with Fajardo.
 
2025 season trend

season=2025 and site=home and line<4 and week>4

So a small dog and or a favorite of any line after week 4

This home team is currently 3-14 ATS

MY above picks are with the trend fading Hamilton and with the bad trend going with Montreal.
Edmonton if they were a better team would have found a way to get the home win last week but got a lead and blew it away.
Montreal off a terrible game and a few losses in a row. Edmonton should give them some health.
 

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The photo qualifies for both my plays and I’m not riding with both away teams.

With data the standard is to take both away teams but the data is so far up that I’m taking the teams that are not doing well.

I will check the consensus on these. That could signal something as well.
 
Can BC score 22+ points????

Eliminate the 2 bad scoring games vs WPG and eliminate the bad scoring game vs Sask and BC then becomes 3-1 ATS

They need Rourke and the need to score
 
Tonight is BC away dogs are trending nicely I’m unclear about tomorrow the line move has me perplexed

If you get my picks so far let me know.

spottie2935 said:
Best bet #1

BC

after last weeks favorites makes this even better.



Play #2
Montreal gets back this week. Edmonton away *4.5 is not enough. Even with Fajardo.
Click to expand...

Alert yes I’m not betting Montreal tomorrow
 
Grabbed the last of the 3s on BC tonight. Saw the line was 3.5 earlier in the week. Oh well. Think they are the side here. Hamilton kind of due for a stinker and BC needs a good game real bad. Like the matchup against the Hamilton defense.
 
I've been vacation all week but can't miss my cats.

I agree with you guys, BC is the only way to play this spot but I'm leaving it alone. Just gonna watch and cheer for my team.
 
Edmonton +1.5 tonight.

What am I missing here? Why is MTL favored? The team is a train wreck right now. QB, WR, and the secondary corps all littered with backups.
 
Nice call on the Under, Spottie. Two non-offensive TD and a 6 yard TD set up by a fumbled kick and it still gets there.
 
I’m climbing on the Senators in the second half because away teams that score win

I’m also on the under I Calgary
 
JohnnyGambler said:
Grabbed the last of the 3s on BC tonight. Saw the line was 3.5 earlier in the week. Oh well. Think they are the side here. Hamilton kind of due for a stinker and BC needs a good game real bad. Like the matchup against the Hamilton defense.
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Nice work in that thriller!
 
I came out of this week feeling like none of the results surprised me. I think I will jump back into the action next week. Still have a hole to climb out of.
 
All these dogs make me do dangerous. My best CFL season in a long time.


I’ve been waiting for this. After the last 3 weeks am a little apprehensive the dogs continue this strong but I’m not jumping off yet.

My mind thinks the dogs pull back this week

I haven’t begun to do my deep dive this week but just looking at the lines and matchups

Argo and Alouettes are going to be looked at hard

Sask probably not a good fade and Ottawa is on my off list. Then no ideas on the totals.

Hulu come back when you’re ready don’t rush it.

I have been leaving the CFL early the last few seasons, this season as you know has been different.
 
Ottawa at WPG

Thursday road dogs have been one of the best road dog situations running. The problem this week is WPG and their road favorite early line status next week
The road dog this Thursday is not a play because of A next week road favorite WPG is 9-9 ATS in the current week

The and my big play is :

under 51.5 Ott/wpg

The photo below also shows the dog to extremely in favor but teams next week at favorites are 9-9 within this so imagine eliminating this scenario the dogs on Thursday are 22-6 ats but no play this week
 

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