CFL Syndicate 2025

My 2025 Offensive Line ranking. Because it all begins in the trenches.

1. Toronto - Lost a couple of starters but it doesn't matter. They have drafted exceptionally well for their line and are stacked for years to come. They just signed 2 former high draft picks who bounced around the NFL for a while. Just an embarrassment of riches. Wouldn't surprise me to see them trade a body or two for some defensive help.
2. Montreal - Lost long time guard Kristian Matte to retirement but have plenty of depth to fill that hole. They should look every bit as good as last year.
3. Hamilton - Already a good like lost Joel Figeuroa who wasn't a huge factor LY but brings in Liam Dobson from WInnipeg. This is a solid line that should allow BLM to pick apart defences with his all-star receiving corps.
4. Winnipeg - Aging but still solids. Lost promising guard Liam Dobson but they have a solid core of starters. Depth is questionable.
5. Saskatchewan - Would've been higher but they lost 2 nat guys in camp, one for the season. So they have some holes to fill but I think this will be a solid group. Not a lot of depth behind the starting 5 though.
6. Edmonton - Started looking improved in the latter half of last season. They added promising young guard Gregor McKellar from Toronto and C David Beard from Hamilton. T Martez Ivey could be one of the best tackles in the league.
7. Ottawa - Improving but still somewhat below average. They have a decent starting 5 but no depth unless they find a diamond in the rough
8. BC Lions - This line could end up being much better that 7th if they come together. They added Dejon Allen (TOR) and are hoping LYs 1st round draft pick George Una is ready to live up to his potential. If this works out, they coule be an above average unit although depth is an issue.
9. Calgary - This doesn't look like a really bad group but someone had to come last. They return a decent core of young guys but lost promising centre Sean McEwen.

5 years ago Calgary's OL would have been mid-pack. There really aren't any really bad looking lines like there were over the past 10-15 years. Another reason I think we see scoring up again this year.
 
Among the rule changes this season are a couple that will help scoring...

REMOVAL OF RESTRICTED MAJOR PENALTIES
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The restriction when applying the maximum distance on all major penalties, misconducts and rough play disqualifications will be removed.
The total distance of the penalty yardage will be applied, to a maximum of the one-yard line.
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So basically any major penalty inside the 30 won't be half the distance to goal anymore, it will be the full yardage all the way to the 1. A major penalty anywhere inside the 16 would be an automatic first and goal at the 1. This can only help scoring.

LOW HITS ON VULNERABLE RECEIVERS
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A penalty has been created to deter low hits on receivers who are not in a position to adequately protect themselves. A 15-yard penalty and an automatic first down will be called when a blow is delivered at or below the knees of a receiver who is in the act of catching a pass, while in a vulnerable position. Should the receiver jump, they will lose low hit protection.
Click to expand...

Another year, another new defensive penalty.
 
Hulu said:
Among the rule changes this season are a couple that will help scoring...



So basically any major penalty inside the 30 won't be half the distance to goal anymore, it will be the full yardage all the way to the 1. A major penalty anywhere inside the 16 would be an automatic first and goal at the 1. This can only help scoring.



Another year, another new defensive penalty.
Click to expand...
They really have to manipulate the rules to create more scoring. They can’t have these low totals do they step in and make changes.
 
If the current numbers hold until more books open I will have 2 bets in week 1.

One of them I am salivating over. I'll be hitting it hard if I can.
 
We have lines!!

1* Saskatchewan ML -135
The number on this game is -2.5 and my numbers say -4.5 which pretty much makes it an auto bet when I am on the opposite side of the 3. Sask is the better team here and comes into the game with a lot of continuity from LY with a few key additions. They have a healthy QB and full compliment of receivers for the first time in a while too and they have the speed to give Ottawa's defence trouble. On Ottawa's side, this is a tough spot to be in. Its never easy to travel on a short week and this one comes off preseason and all the cuts on Saturday. That doesn't leave a lot of prep time before the team has to fly out west with a lot of new pieces to put together. Not to mention they start off the week with a number of OL and a key DB on the injury report. Time will tell if those are serious or just preseason nicks but I think this spot is primed for a sask win. Gimme the green riders.

1.5* EDM / BC over 48.5 -110
I've been saying I think Rourke will look closer to his 2022 magical self than the confused lad we saw last year. That was reinforced in the preseason where he only played 2.5 drives but went 9/9 and looked really poised doing it. He made his reads quickly, looked like he knew where his receivers should be and stepped into his throws with confidence. He took what the defence gave, checking down when necessary but also not being afraid to hit the long dig route when it was there. I liked what I saw. I think he comes into this season with a chip on his shoulder and ready to come out firing. The QB controversy that surrounded his return LY is gone and this team knows who their leader is. 50,000 tix sold thanks to a snoop dog show before the game and the house should be rockin. On the Edmonton side, this team has some real potential and their defence will be good but needs a few games to come together. From what I saw of Tre Ford in preseason, I think the Elks can compete here, and should be good for 23+ points against a middling BC defence. I made this total 52.5 and that might even be a bit conservative because its week 1. If all unfolds like I am expecting, I think we will look back in a few weeks and laugh that a BC total was ever under 50.

Best of luck to all!
 
Money coming in on Ottawa.

Maybe I'm out on a limb here but I seem to be lower on the redblacks than the rest of the market/public. I think they are decent but I have to see a functional secondary before I'll have them rated as anything above the average.
 
spottie2935 said:
Week 1 home dogs is the only week that they excel.
15-3 ATS
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Remember this? Calgary can be had for +1.5 or +105 on the ML. I think the fair line is Calgary -1

Also, I think there could be some real offensive fireworks in this game. Mitchell and that insane receivers group and on the other side, a pissed off VAj with a chip on his shoulder for being dumped LY. These defences were terrible last year and I don't see that a lot has changed. I made the total 53.5, the books opened a point lower but boy this one could go off.

I might add this. Opinions welcome.
 
Week = 1 and home favorite and day = Thursday
Favorites are 2-10 ATS unders are 8-4

Now when the dog scores less that 18 points it’s 2-2 ATS.

Historically if the road dog can score and keep pace that’s the dogs success.

I’m not sold on Ottawa. The heavy trends on opening night and the high consensus of the other capping site. Could be a concern. I hope Trevor Harris has a good season but he has had both good and bad.
Riders are 12-4 ats in week 1 but 3 of those ats losses were lines<-4. This line is right there.

Riders are 5-3 ats at home in week 1 and yes the same 3 losses are included in that. In those 3 home ats losses they gave up more than 28 points in all those games. If the D doesn’t do well that will be their problem. Also CFL can get crazy on special teams as well so Ottawas Dedmon can go off.

When the riders have been the dog head to head against Ott they are 6-2 ATS the Riders also had success against Ottawa when the lines were -6 or more. This is not in those games.

All I’m going off of is the league tendencies of what I described above. Because of the recent season tendencies I have been leaving the league early in the seasons. I am not really up to date with the teams anymore. I am pretty much blind or half blind to CFL play and players.

I have very little confidence because of the regression that is currently taking place. Ever since Covid the league has changed. I think we are starting to see parody taking place but it also will take time.
 
Tonight small bets, Toe in the water :

Ott +3.5 current line and have not bet anything yet. I post early to disclose my thoughts.

Under 49.5 early season defenses usually are better but on opening night this could be a showcase point fest.

no confidence in the league because of the regression in place following 2020.

Using data and consensus these are the plays I see.

Best wishes to all. Football is back
 
I see Ott lines +3.5:
-117
-112
-115
-108

All the juice on the team the book will need? Something I’m watching. With in game and 4 books I don’t want to pay extra to lose. I’m waiting until I see better
 
spottie2935 said:
Interesting to watch these “experts” try
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With these its important to remember that Sask has the biggest fan base in the league by a long stretch. That's why the line almost always tilts toward them in the hours before kickoff as the fans get their bets down. There is quite literally, nothing else to do.

Sask is a little like Ireland in that there are more sask-born people living outside the province than in it. The entire province only has about 1.2 million people but I'll bet there are at least 2.5 million sask-born people living elsewhere.
 
Injury Reports for Thursday night. Both teams seem to be undergoing some OL issues.

In Ottawa, Peter Godber was likely the starting center for Ottawa while Starczala and Pelehos are rotational guys. Both starting safety Justin Howell and DB Deandre Lamont being out would be a problem for their already weak secondary.

1748991212520.png

Sask has a pretty big list for week 1 but only a few names there are concerning. Shawn Bane jr. is expected to be a key receiver but they have other talent to lean on at the position. Philip Gangon and Sean McEwen are gone for the year and while that's a problem, its been known for well over a week so they have had time to try other guys at the position through camp and preseason. Also, Trevor Harris has developed the fastest release in the league. He is a quick strike kind of guy, 3 steps, read and throw. So a drop in OL talent is going to affect a QB like that less than a Nathan Rourke type who tends to hold onto the ball.

In the defensive backfield, Jaxon Ford and Kosi Onyeka are both more rotational guys than starters so as long as they don't lose anyone else in game, they should be fine.

The bigger problem is that most of the guys who are out are nats so they will have to make roster adjustments elsewhere because they may have to start 4 american offensive linemen. It will be interesting to see how they manage that once depth charts come out tomorrow.

1748991266038.png
 
This presser by Dickenson is interesting. He says they may have 12 new starters on defence vs the crew that ended last year. I'm sorry, but there is no way to do that without looking like an expansion team for a while. You can't bring 12 new guys together and expect them to play as a unit after a 2 week camp. He also admits that his linebacking group is not where he wants it to be and they need to get better there which is a pretty stunning admission.

Long range forecast doesn't show any weather for the game so if I can find a Hamilton team total over 26.5 I'll take it. With Bo behind a solid OL and the star-studded receiving group he is throwing to, I don't see how they don't hit 30 against a brand new defensive unit.

If we take a look at how Hamilton's offence fared against average or worse defences LY (ranked #5 or below) they went 6-3 over this number with an avg score of 31.3 and never scored less than 22. And tnhis year they should be a little better even.

www.stampeders.com

Dickenson - 02.06.25 - Calgary Stampeders

"We wanted to get some different types of players, some size, some speed." General manager and head coach Dave Dickenson addresses the media following the roster moves this past weekend.
www.stampeders.com www.stampeders.com
 
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Good points Hulu the data is ripe for Ott but I’m not sure I’m on the best side. CFL is funny though we will see and as always I don’t like being opposite that’s for sure.
 
spottie2935 said:
Good points Hulu the data is ripe for Ott but I’m not sure I’m on the best side. CFL is funny though we will see and as always I don’t like being opposite that’s for sure.
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We have completely different handicapping styles. You are more trend based and I am all about personnel and scheme. When we agree it usually goes very well.
 
Hulu said:
We have completely different handicapping styles. You are more trend based and I am all about personnel and scheme. When we agree it usually goes very well.
Click to expand...
I have many leagues to follow and being that the CFL has been in regression it’s been a tough road. I started CFL back in 2004 and before 2020 I did very well. I’m ready to throw in the towel but I know as soon as I do, well you know. Your info and logic brings lots of light into my style. I may act out sometimes but I appreciate you and all your efforts.


🤟
 
Okay week 2 :

Because future lines are meaningful to week 1 outcomes.

Why do I think this. A team that is a dog every week is not a good team right?

So if a dog will be a favorite the next week is like bookie or line maker support.

Even into week 3 if a dog this week will be favorites in the next 2 weeks ahead is even more support. As a dog bettor the weakest dog is supposed to be out of play. Eliminate them. So that’s the look ahead

Also the opposite for a favorite with a dog line ahead

Not only are these favorites possibly looking at a big game ahead they are not the tops like Winnipeg. Winnipeg most often is favored most often. I’ll show the data on them in a moment.

Anyways favorite next dog and next next dog. That tells the story that this favorite is not elite. Back to back dogs ahead is meaningful in power rating and win loss records. In college these games can be categorized as sandwich games.
 
I will use Winnipeg in this example. Since and including 2017 Winnipeg as a dog with a game the following week will be favorites 14-7 ATS. To a certain extent this team is been too good to be dogs many times. None the less the results are excellent.

The photo incert shows every team in the CFL since 2016 but the photo doesn’t show the team involved. I high lighted the spread records
 

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So week 2 schedule:

BC at Wpg so weakness in BC this week because they should be a dog next week.

MTL @ Ott and most likely MTL will be an away favorite. Away favorites the following week are good teams. No bet on MTL this week because they are favorites. Ottawa being a home dog next is bad news for Ottawa. Home dogs are not good teams.

Calgary @ Tor so this week is strength for the Argos and weak for Calgary

Saskatchewan @ Hamilton. This is one of those game that will be close to a Pick ‘em next week. Probably Saskatchewan as a dog. So Saskatchewan is not strong this week but Ottawa is also not strong this week. Edge Sask because a dog and next home dog (Ottawas situation) is very weak.

I’ll list some data categories here: and this starts and includes data from and including 2017 to present

Dog next favorite 115-82 ats 58%

Dog next favorite and next next favorite 61-34 ats 64%

Favorite next dog 96-113 46%

Favorite next dog and next dog 29-66 30%

Dog and next home dog 68-83 45%

Favorite and next home dog 14-30 32%

Home dog and next away dog 58-51 53%

Home dog and next favorite 27-23 54%
 
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So in Ottawa this week @ Dog this week and next home dog and Sask is next dog also which the dog is 4-4 ats, in weeks before week 7. in week 1 it’s 1-2 so Ottawa in this data is weak. The only game within this played on Thursday is fog 1-0. History also shows string for dogs on Thursday.

In my onion Sask and Ottawa is a lean yo the dog as that is my preference but a good case for the matchup being even ATS at 4-4

Week 1 Thursday dogs are dominate but weaker because the home dog line next week.
 
Ottawa at Sask

The way you break it down and the fact that Ottawa will be a home dog in week 2 makes a good play for Sask.

The fact that week 1 dogs are strong and week 1 dogs on Thursday makes Ottawa a small play because again a look ahead home dog situation.
 
Tor @ MTL
There really isn’t some strong data for this game because both teams are favorites next week and had a lot of wins last year.
 
Ham @ Calg

There isn’t much side data but the over is 6-2 but the data query on this is very specific which I feel is good. Some feel like it’s too small a sample size and erratic. If one likes the over then the data can support the opinion even if the results are limited
 
Elks @ Lions

Home favorites next game dog (BC) 9-21 ats before week 9 and 44-55 ats overall.

The problem here is the Elks will be off in week 2

Home favorites in all weeks when their opponents are on a bye next week 22-30 ats

The problem is Saturday games are for the favorites at 7-4 ats


Summary the dogs in week 1 are historically very strong but since Covid everything seems to even. At the present the CFL we are establishing which direction the covers are going.
 
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