CFL Syndicate 2021

Some look ahead lines for week 3 and theres some shocking numbers...

EDM @ BC -3 42.5
MTL @ CAL -2.5 45.5
WPG @ TOR +6.5 40.5
OTT @ SSK -7.5 45.5

42.5 is the absolute bottom for CFL totals and I have NEVER see 40.5. Lets hope for a couple of low scoring games tonight and next week the over train begins
 
Tonight is my best bet of this week, but it not a best bet for me.

Starting with Montreal :

In 2019, in which I will refer to it as last season, wikipedia has listed both Conference all-star teams. The Eastern Conference All-Star QB was Vernon Adams. The top Eastern Conference All-Star RB was W.Stanback. So here we have a high out put offensive team according to the last season.

Stanback was first in the league with 12 rushes for +20 yards and 2nd in the league (1 less) in +10 yard rushes. Being able to make 2nd down easier and rushing for yardage makes the QB job and keeping the ball on offense much simpler.



In 2020 Montreal ownership changed hands. I dont know the reasoning behind the deal but these 2 business men that bought the team are probably investors that appreciate football. To me this is a positive that someone would invest in the team.



Edmonton totally blew last game and as a Home favorite is just, I will just say under performing. They were -7 last week that struggled to win 3 games last season. Still lost that game. Bad news for Edmonton again.



Edmonton as a home favorite in its last 30 games have 9 covers, and in its last 22 games have 6 home favorite cashes. If their opponent is a non conference and Edmonton is a home chalk they are 2-10 ATS. Yea just bad. Lastly Edmonton is currently on a bad ATS run only covering 3 games of its last 15 games.



I like Trevor Harris but in Edmonton he has not been the same QB that he was in Ottawa. If I remember right though in Ottawa they had and outstanding team with All-Star WR's. I need to see more after his terrible last week. He did fine (with a few mistakes) in between the 20's but in the green zone(red zone) NFL he left a lot on the table.



Lastly and to sum this up. Last week Edmonton played Ottawa who only won 3 games the season prior and regardless of the fact they lost the line was only -7



This line is -5 to a Montreal team on paper with a previous history can score with a talented QB and RB that can make plays. They can keep pace and get the cover. I do see Edmonton improving on offense in this game as they were so bad, but the 5 points or 4.5 is very valuable.





I know some of you are going to comment that Montreal is playing its first game, and my answer is edmontons first game was trash and this line at +5 is built on this assumption. +5 is too many to give a team that can score. There maybe some rust but If these all-stars play like they can, then the points are too valuable.



I didnt get into the SDQL I dont need to do anymore supporting of this play. I may add the trending info later.



Selections :



Montreal +5 best bet of my week ( but not a season best bet)

Parlay : Montreal +185 with the over 46.5. 1 pays 4.44



good luck to all
 
I wrote this on the other site and wanted to share. Feed back is very welcome as it makes me better in the future.
 
Hulu said:
Some look ahead lines for week 3 and theres some shocking numbers...

EDM @ BC -3 42.5
MTL @ CAL -2.5 45.5
WPG @ TOR +6.5 40.5
OTT @ SSK -7.5 45.5

42.5 is the absolute bottom for CFL totals and I have NEVER see 40.5. Lets hope for a couple of low scoring games tonight and next week the over train begins
Click to expand...
Thank you.. I need and appreciate these so much. :tiphat:
 
spottie2935 said:
Tonight is my best bet of this week, but it not a best bet for me.

Starting with Montreal :

In 2019, in which I will refer to it as last season, wikipedia has listed both Conference all-star teams. The Eastern Conference All-Star QB was Vernon Adams. The top Eastern Conference All-Star RB was W.Stanback. So here we have a high out put offensive team according to the last season.

Stanback was first in the league with 12 rushes for +20 yards and 2nd in the league (1 less) in +10 yard rushes. Being able to make 2nd down easier and rushing for yardage makes the QB job and keeping the ball on offense much simpler.



In 2020 Montreal ownership changed hands. I dont know the reasoning behind the deal but these 2 business men that bought the team are probably investors that appreciate football. To me this is a positive that someone would invest in the team.



Edmonton totally blew last game and as a Home favorite is just, I will just say under performing. They were -7 last week that struggled to win 3 games last season. Still lost that game. Bad news for Edmonton again.



Edmonton as a home favorite in its last 30 games have 9 covers, and in its last 22 games have 6 home favorite cashes. If their opponent is a non conference and Edmonton is a home chalk they are 2-10 ATS. Yea just bad. Lastly Edmonton is currently on a bad ATS run only covering 3 games of its last 15 games.



I like Trevor Harris but in Edmonton he has not been the same QB that he was in Ottawa. If I remember right though in Ottawa they had and outstanding team with All-Star WR's. I need to see more after his terrible last week. He did fine (with a few mistakes) in between the 20's but in the green zone(red zone) NFL he left a lot on the table.



Lastly and to sum this up. Last week Edmonton played Ottawa who only won 3 games the season prior and regardless of the fact they lost the line was only -7



This line is -5 to a Montreal team on paper with a previous history can score with a talented QB and RB that can make plays. They can keep pace and get the cover. I do see Edmonton improving on offense in this game as they were so bad, but the 5 points or 4.5 is very valuable.





I know some of you are going to comment that Montreal is playing its first game, and my answer is edmontons first game was trash and this line at +5 is built on this assumption. +5 is too many to give a team that can score. There maybe some rust but If these all-stars play like they can, then the points are too valuable.



I didnt get into the SDQL I dont need to do anymore supporting of this play. I may add the trending info later.



Selections :



Montreal +5 best bet of my week ( but not a season best bet)

Parlay : Montreal +185 with the over 46.5. 1 pays 4.44



good luck to all
Click to expand...

I'll give you my thoughts. We see this one quite differently so its a good one to compare notes.

First Montreal...I don't think they are near as good as their record was in 2019.

I think Vernon Adams caught some people off guard with his play LY and he will need to take a major step if he is going to continue to impress. He played decently at times but too often resorted to playground football. While that got them some comeback wins, it is not a sustainable way to win in the long term and he will have to mature some more to be considered a franchise type QB. He can do it, but I'd like to see him get there first.

They have a decent receiving corps with a lot of good receivers but no clear #1deep threat. It will be up to Quan Bray (el chapo) or Geno Lewis to develop into the guy who can stretch the defence. Stanback is a stud runner but this is a passing league so that only counts for so much. Their offensive line looked average at best in 2019 and I don't see that its gotten any better unless theyve found some diamonds in the rough. At least we know the all-important LT position is solidly manned by Tony Washington.

Defensively in 2019 they had an avg secondary, great LB trio and a DL who couldn't generate any pass rush whatsoever. On the DL they've lost John Bowman and brought in an aging Almondo Sewell which should be a wash. They also added DT Nick Usher but I just don't see that equating to any sort of improvement. They will have to find ways to get a rush. The LB crew was decimated and losing Henoc Muamba in the middle is a big blow. They will go with someone brand new in that all-important piosition. The secondary is about the same and they added Money Hunter and Tyquan Glass who are both average DBs IMO.

So I see this team as about the same level as 2019 which is to say about a .500 team. I think 7 wins might be achievable if only because they share a division with Ottawa. They were an over team LY and I think that trend will continue once they get going.

As for Edmonton, I throw last week away completely. It was just another sloppy game in a week of sloppy games that really showed why a couple of preseason games are important. Harris and co moved the ball with relative ease against a an Ottawa defence that is better than Montreals but made a handful of mistakes at key times. Although Harris threw 3 picks, I only give him full blame on one of them and he has never done that in his career and almost certainly won't do it again tonight. The game was a complete outlier.

The Elks receiving group is as good as any in the league. Greg Ellingson have piled up the first and third most yardage in the league since 2015 and Tevaun Smith (who will be back tonight replacing Shai Ross who caused one of last weeks INTs) might be the best NAT receiver in the league. James Wilder jr is a great RB and easily Stanback's equal with more break away speed. Their offensive line is a bit of a concern but they do have the addition of D'Antne Demery this week and Elizondo's offensive style relies on quick, high-success plays that tend to negate a pass rush. They did struggle with that LW but again Montreal's pass rush is nowhere near as good as Ottawa's.

Defensively, they probably have the second best DL behind winnipeg. Betts and Boateng on the end are 2 ratio breakers and along with Moore & Ceresna inside, this DL is formabible and atheletic. I think they could well keep Adams in check if they can keep containment on him. OTOH Montreal could negate the pass rush by establishing Stanback as a threat. Behind the DL the LB corps is relatively new but looked good last week, albeit against an incompetemt Ottawa attack. The secondary is above average with Rose, Mincy and Grymes manning 3 of the DB spots...all-sta level talent in all 3 IMO.

Finally, Montreal is going with a rookie kicker and punter which is a shaky proposition with what we've seen this year. I give EDM the edge there as well.

Also, I don't think you can discount the angle that Edmonton has a game under their belt. Since Ottawa came back to create a 9 team league, I have been watching the team who has a first round bye and they often struggle in the second week and that is with a preseason. This year I don't think we can underestomate the advantage that having a real game against real competition will bring. Its also very hot in Edmonton today with a kickoff temp of 34 C (93 F). Edmonton has had this heat all week...Montreal has not seen this yet.

Conclusion...I was prepared to blast Edmonton at -3 or better but the bookies were smarter than me and are pricing in the fact that Edmonton is the far superior team here. I think they get the win here against an ALs team that will be huffing and puffing by the 2H but I can't play it at 5. Maybe at 3.5 if it gets there
 
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Lots of money coming in on the ALs...down to 4 in some places. If I can get a reasonably priced 3.5, I'll take it
 
No play on edmonton and montreal

I'm probly somewhere between you too when it comes to montreal

We've seen how much most offense has struggled so far this year though, and Als have been seen the least of everybody at TC and this is their first game, which I think is a huge disadvantage

Maybe live get involved
 
guaranteeed said:
No play on edmonton and montreal

I'm probly somewhere between you too when it comes to montreal

We've seen how much most offense has struggled so far this year though, and Als have been seen the least of everybody at TC and this is their first game, which I think is a huge disadvantage

Maybe live get involved
Click to expand...
Live might be the smarter way to play it. I think the ALs will be tiring in thee 2H so EDM might be a good play if they're down at all
 
Hulu said:
Some look ahead lines for week 3 and theres some shocking numbers...

EDM @ BC -3 42.5
MTL @ CAL -2.5 45.5
WPG @ TOR +6.5 40.5
OTT @ SSK -7.5 45.5

42.5 is the absolute bottom for CFL totals and I have NEVER see 40.5. Lets hope for a couple of low scoring games tonight and next week the over train begins
Click to expand...
Uh please release those totals, especially the one at bc place asap with no movement

Lions dropsies cost them a ton yesterday, and I still dont believe in the defense yet
 
Hulu said:
Live might be the smarter way to play it. I think the ALs will be tiring in thee 2H so EDM might be a good play if they're down at all
Click to expand...
Ya, if it was 3 I think I'd be on Edmonton, it moved after your play now back to 4

Would love an early montreal score, maybe get em closer to pk

2h makes a ton of sense though too, on d especially it's a hot one in Edmonton today
 
Hulu I dont disagree with your comments. Edmonton has been a disappointment ATS. One thing I dont like is coming in off such a bad loss. The thing I like is those such teams as favorites don't scare me. If Edmonton loses tonight what does the perception trend on Edmonton as a team. I think much like a lot of these teams already people will have a hard time backing them but I will love to take Edmonton next week as the away dog division game @ BC.

There are some SDQL trends to back my play but sometimes there are opposite SDQL plays that are against me.

Either way I appreciate your thoughts and win or lose. much respect.

:tiphat:
 
guaranteeed said:
Uh please release those totals, especially the one at bc place asap with no movement

Lions dropsies cost them a ton yesterday, and I still dont believe in the defense yet
Click to expand...
I've been beating up on these betregal early lines. Limit is $100 at open but if you wait until the evening before the major books release you can get $250 down. I haven't been posting them here because of the low limits but theres some that have been really off.

I wonder if I can hit the 10x bonus rollover before they boot me out
 
spottie2935 said:
Hulu I dont disagree with your comments. Edmonton has been a disappointment ATS. One thing I dont like is coming in off such a bad loss. The thing I like is those such teams as favorites don't scare me. If Edmonton loses tonight what does the perception trend on Edmonton as a team. I think much like a lot of these teams already people will have a hard time backing them but I will love to take Edmonton next week as the away dog division game @ BC.

There are some SDQL trends to back my play but sometimes there are opposite SDQL plays that are against me.

Either way I appreciate your thoughts and win or lose. much respect.

:tiphat:
Click to expand...
We have differing styles but theres more than one way to win
 
My plays this week Will probably be:
Elks if a dog.
Al's if a dog.
Argo's obvious dog
Ott +1,000,000 points or more. Its the last game of the week so I expect this line to climb. (Unless my friend on his private Island gets the urge to drop some dimes on this crappy team and the line drops.)




overs :
WPG/TOR
CGY/MTL
OTT/SAS

This is the last week for a while that has:
1 game Thursday
1 game Friday
2 games Saturday


=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-


My opinion from history, with data that supports this. Unders will correct, see you see the under lines are dropping, dogs are 6-2 ATS and historically before week 14 will continue to be successful.

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=

Any line is good for the dog but I prefer to add a cushion so a dog line is >=3 then here is the query (55% ATS)


-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=

Non DIV dogs hit at 57% ATS

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=


Non-Division Home dogs of >=3 (TOR) and weeks 1 thru 5 only 211-11 ATS

=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=
total<47 and season>2007 and week<18 and not DIV

any total<47 from 2008 to present and week<18 in a non-division game the overs are 28-12, 70% ATS
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-==-=-=-=
 
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Hamilton +2 -120 (L)
Hamilton under 49 (W)
Montreal +4.5 (W)
Montreal under 45.5 (W)

YTD: 12-4 - 75%

On to Week 3.

I think these totals are going to trend down & the "over" train is approaching the station in weeks 3 & 4.
 
Hulu said:
I am woefully unprepared this week. And not particularly confident in anything.
Click to expand...
Well in the first 2 weeks there is a lot of stuff going on. Injuries and Coaching sit outs. I am not confident in BC at home. This line should be a tad higher but after being favorites Edmonton I hope will be better.
 
1* Edmonton +4.5 -110

Not complete;y sold on this play but since its moving our way, it'll be easy enough to buy out if I change my mind. As much as I hesitate to back the Elks again, this is a good spot for them to get some things right. I'm not entirely sold on BC's defence just yet and Reilly has been very limited at practice once again this week like in week 1 and we saw what happened there. Also, with the Elks getting their regular LT Saxelid back, I think the OL should be more solid this week.

Lean over also but this Elk defence is very good and could hold BC in check so I'm not going to play it unless it goes down more.
 
Almost forgot this...

Results after week 2

Sides 3-2 +1.76*
Totals 4-0 +4.00*
Live 1-1 -0.075*
Tease/Parlay 0-1 -0.50*
Player Props 0-1 -0.575*

Overall 8-5 +4.61*

Advantage over Close
Sides +5.5
Totals +5

3-3 in week 2 for +1.385*
 
1.5* Montreal -1 -110

Bo is out and Michael O'Conner starting his first game...nuff said on the Calgary side.

On the Montreal side, I have to say I was impressed by what I saw last weekend. They played with some offensive creativity and balance and defensively, created a lot more pressure than they were able to last year by bringing delayed blitzes, twists and other clever ruses.
 
I have made Thursday plays on Edmonton and over. The rest of the lines are invisible.

If the first half is on pace for an under (unless their is a injury, I will be hunting for over opportunities)

Montreal, couldn't agree more. :tiphat:

best wishes Hulu:shake:
 
spottie2935 said:
I have made Thursday plays on Edmonton and over. The rest of the lines are invisible.

If the first half is on pace for an under (unless their is a injury, I will be hunting for over opportunities)

Montreal, couldn't agree more. :tiphat:

best wishes Hulu:shake:
Click to expand...

For whatever reason I have a couple of books with lines for all 4 games but the others that usually follow within minutes have not. Pinnacle has not put up lines yet which is truly bizarre. It used to always be them or Bookmaker that opened first.

Glad to see we're on the same page with Montreal. Unless Michael O'Conner is some diamond in the rough, Montreal should win this easily. I make the line -3.5 and even that might be low.

Here is the rest of what I am seeing...

MTL @ CGY +1 45.5
WPG @ TOR +5 42
OTT @ SSK -11 45.5

I am curious as to your thoughts on the total in Toronto. This is historically low and these way low totals have had a tendency to go over. I think with Arbuckle starting and Winnipeg getting Darvin Adams back as well as a slew of dinged up defenders on both sides could lead to some more points and in the CFL a special teams or defensive TD is always looming.
 
Sides:
Edmonton. based upon line switch from home favorite to @dog. I look at 2019 and BC only won 5 games. I know this is a new season but then (as I mentioned before) I look at wikipedia and ask myself, is BC really improved that much to go from 5 wins to be a home favorite against a rival. BC: as DIV home favorites 6-13 ATS last 19 times. When home favorites, not as many as -7, in the division, they are 3-11 ATS. Only winning 6 of those 15 games. My thinking is they played and got a kind of a lucky comeback backdoor cover in week 1, and played a weak arm Calgary QB in week 2. Reilly and BC are going to score and their D isnt good enough to keep (what should be a motivated and ready to go) Trevor Harris and Elks off the scoreboard. Close hard fought higher scoring dog win.

BC+4
over 46




Montreal: I love dogs but this game stinks. Montreal or nothing until Calgary gets a better line. I think this is a blowout from start to finish. I found a query for this game and the BC Edmonton game that is a team with 2 straight under and a (closing line) total of less than 47 in the first 7 weeks of the season there are 17 overs and 2 unders.
This game to me the way Montreal can run, they might make 40. I am predicting a Montreal win and it could be ugly. If I happen to lose the Thursday over I will make a case for some points here.

Montreal pick -118 (When betting on small favorites I skip the spread and lay the juice)
Over 45.5 (depending on the Thursday game and there could be a line move before kick)


Winnipeg: when the season started I had it in my mind that the Winnipeg Cover hot stretch was going to fizzle out. That has not taken place yet. I will display this query :


What I dont like is Winnipeg on the road 48-76 SU and ONLY 18 of those game they were the chalk. They have been awesome covering but now the lines are catching up to them. They played a beat up Hamilton team in week 1, and were 10-7 in the 4th Q last week until they returned a Toronto Fumble. The D is/ was great so far as they took another turnover in the 4th Q to make the final 20-7. Toronto barely had the ball in the 4th Q. All the defense Winnipeg has put up and they still could have lost both home games. On the road this week with very little history of winning and as road favorites.. This is Dog and over.

I will bet the over as this line wont go down. I know on paper and what we have seen its hard to bet overs in all 3 of these games, but there is so much energy that has not been there in 7 of these games. Things will get crazy and somehow this low total is just too low.

Toronto +5
over 42.

Lastly Sask - 11

Sask has a bye in week 4 and that means no look ahead. This is a good team that rolls with Fajardo and I just can't see OTT keeping it close.
I think this might be the only under that has a chance, but before I make a commitment on that I want to see the first Saturday game.

This game being the last, I will have some other confirmations in m betting patterns, The CFL does have patterns that I like.

This week is overs all day. There have been such low scoring abysmal games that its going to let lose.

Sask -11 is my lean, but there are a few trends that makes OTT the winner. I can't see that but I was wrong fading OTT in week 1.

lean under.

I know this was more then you were looking for but I had some free time before bed.

I have a good handle on what I do and your style fills in my gaps. Best wishes
 
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Hulu said:
1.5* Montreal -1 -110

Bo is out and Michael O'Conner starting his first game...nuff said on the Calgary side.

On the Montreal side, I have to say I was impressed by what I saw last weekend. They played with some offensive creativity and balance and defensively, created a lot more pressure than they were able to last year by bringing delayed blitzes, twists and other clever ruses.
Click to expand...
On this one and the over in Vancouver so far

Agreed on everything with montreal

O'connor really behind the 8 ball here, and Calgary wasn't humming with bo either
 
Hulu said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1428378776015151104

Well this is unexpected. Doesn’t change anything for me tho. A rookie QB is a rookie qb.

I know nothing about the UC Davis program but this is a massive step up for a young qb.
Click to expand...
I dont understand why but I have confidence in Dickinson. If this guy beat the other rookie out there might be an upset. I am in on Montreal at this moment but hate this line move based on what could be disaster. Over yes I am happy and I might middle the other. See what happens tonight first.

Hulu thanks for sharing. :tiphat:
 
spottie2935 said:
I dont understand why but I have confidence in Dickinson. If this guy beat the other rookie out there might be an upset. I am in on Montreal at this moment but hate this line move based on what could be disaster. Over yes I am happy and I might middle the other. See what happens tonight first.

Hulu thanks for sharing. :tiphat:
Click to expand...
I’m Dickinson we trust.

Maier must have looked good to beat out O’Conner who is a second year guy but hasn’t started a game. And O’Conner played in USport so he has experience in the 3 down game that Maier doesn’t.

Either way, it will be hella tough for the stamps to hang with the ALs
 
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