CFB -BIG season Win total 2008

tee*dub

tee*dub

Head of Loggerhead Turtle Society
I play one or two of these a year.

I prefer to play them at the Hilton in Vegas as one can get by far the best odds and higher dollar limits BUT I can't make it to Vegas by Saturday and I ran out of "runner" options. So played this with a local..

IOWA Hawkeyes over 7 wins, -155, 10 units (7750-5000)

Thought about playing this at plus money over 7.5 wins but 7 is such a key number I decided to pay some vig to get it.

I have a ton of info on this one and I'll add it over the next few days as I have time to write it up .

Few key points:

Schedule-
  • DO NOT play Ohio State or Michigan.
  • 7 home games
  • First 5 games are against teams without winning record last year
  • only one "sure" loss on the schedule --at Illinois and even that one is a stretch for "sure loss" status
  • Three very lopsided "wins" to start the season quite possible with home games v. Maine, Fla Intl and Iowa State. Then open conference play with home game against NW
  • Key winnable games will be the last two. Home against Purdue and at Minnesota , a game that will likely determine the Hawkeyes Bowl destination.
Players-
  • return entire offensive line including guards Olsen, Doering and center Eubanks all three listed as top 20 linemen in the country.. Also add all conference hopeful tackle Dace Richardson 6'6 330 and this may be one of the strongest offensive line Ferenz has had.. And the NFL is full of Iowa offensive linemen.
  • return half the defense including top 10 defensive tackle Mitch King.
  • QB - finally experienced and ready to be effective Jake Christiansen
  • Plenty of options at receiver but look for TE Tony Moeaki to play a big role TY
  • runningback by committee but everything I have read about JC transfer Brett Guillory tells me he will emerge as the benficiary of running behind this elite line.
more later
 
I liked Iowa O7 a lot myself when I was looking at these, I just didn't want to lay that much chalk.

GL with it. I like taking one or two team overs myself a year just because it gives me a team to root for/against other than the Gators. This year, I took aTm Aggies O7.5 +140
 
Jump is right but everything else in here looks great.

7 is the safe play no doubt.

GL on this.
 
vegaskyle said:
Suspect theyw ill be a great team ATS this year as well. like it.
Click to expand...

Always are Kyle.. Amazing stat-- Fenentz is in his 10th year at Iowa.. Career ATS is 61-45-2.

I have profitted on many of those. Started following them several years ago when I noticed they hardly ever got respect with regards to the ATS number..

Again, they return their entire offenseive line, QB, key players on defense and they are still picked middle to bottom of the pack TY.. I see Phil Steele has them pretty highly rated in terms of talent at individual positions.. Most are missing it.. Nothing glamorous about Kirk Fenentz and the Hawkeyes which is why the number is usually good.

If things line up and injuries stay away this is a January 1 bowl team. Not saying they are one of the top teams in the Big Ten but look at their schedule.. Very favorable for an 8, 9 or possibly even 10 win season.

Betting season win totals in fb is risky though because of injuries. No way to cap that..

GL this year bro:cheers:
 
he has Illy as a loss, and I agree...based on that revenge from the McGee error late in that snoozefest last year.

They get PSU and Wisky at home and no tOSU or UM....so that makes any over bet look good..

They need the ISU game though for you to cash.
 
JumpOnBoard said:
Huge revenge spot for Illinois...
Click to expand...

Agree, which is why I say in my original post that the only "sure" loss is at Illinois.

That will be a tough stretch for the Hawkeyes as they play Wisky at home, Illinois on the road and PSU at home in consecutive weeks. Don't need a win in any of those for this bet but figure since two are at home I get 1 win minimum..:cheers:
 
JumpOnBoard said:
They need the ISU game though for you to cash.
Click to expand...

Yep, you know your shit Jump. That is the swing game in the bet. Big rivalry game but Iowa at home in a huge revenge spot off last years SU loss in which they laid 17.

Think Iowa starts 6-1 or 5-2 if Mich St nips them, as they have another huge revenge game at Indiana in the string .. Another game they were favored by 10 and lost SU last year..

When you look at which teams in the bigten can be dominated by big, physical play.. Iowa plays all that can be and none that can't be.

:cheers:
 
JC transfer Guillory quits team

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz announced Tuesday that Guillory has left the program and the Houston native will transfer to a school closer to his home.
Such an announcement -- especially coming in the week leading up to Saturday's season opener against Maine -- would have seemed devastating to the Hawkeyes at one point. Guillory was the only running back in Iowa's recruiting class when he committed in early-December and the only the only scholarship back on campus during the spring.
"He would tell you he struggled in the spring, and we expected that," Ferentz said. "He was new to the system, everything was new to him, but he took the next step, too. He was performing pretty well this camp, but it was stiff competition. Probably the difference between him and a younger player is his clock is running right now. I don't want to speak for him, but I'm sure that was in his mind."
The return of junior Shonn Greene to the program, the improvement of sophomore Paki O'Meara and the arrival of freshmen Jeff Brinson, Jewel Hampton and Adam Robinson may have contributed to Guillory's departure and equipped the Hawkeyes to handle a departure.
"I think all of us were concerned ... after the season last year (with) what was going to develop at that position," Ferentz said. "Right now I'm pretty confident that we're going to play well at the running back position. Shonn has practiced well, and we had a good feel for who he was, what he was before he got here. He's had a good month. Paki O'Meara has really elevated his play a great deal, and we're very, very happy about that. And then the newcomers that have joined our football team, they've done a nice job as well.
"The jury is still out because we haven't played a snap that counts, but based on what we've seen, we're pretty optimistic that we're going to be productive in the backfield, and that's good to see."
• MEDICAL REPORT: Iowa will be without the services of at least four players Saturday against Maine. Tight end Tony Moeaki (foot), offensive lineman Dan Doering (hand), tight end Michael Sabers (ankle) and receiver Trey Stross (hamstring) have been ruled out.
Ferentz speculated that Moeaki is "probably a week or two away" and that Doering has a realistic chance of returning next week.
"It's one thing to go out and play, but if you can't play effectively..." Ferentz said. "That's going to be the next hurdle for him. But at least it looks like the repair was good and we're not dealing with something really severe here."
Stross' situation is less clear. A recurring hamstring injury cost him four games last year. He's trying to avoid the same situation with his other leg this time.
"We've got to make sure it's completely healed because last year we thought it was healed, it came back and I had to sit out again and sit out and sit out, so we're trying to prevent that," Stross said. "We're trying to make sure everything is good to go. It might be today, it might be tomorrow."
Ferentz said linebacker Jeff Tarpinian (hamstring) is questionable for Saturday's game.
•
 
Not too concerned with Guillroy departure. Sounds like he was getting beat out in Fall camp anyway.

Couple dinged up starters being held out of Maine game.
 

Press-Citizen / John Richard
University of Iowa football offensive lineman Kyle Calloway, from left Seth Olsen, Rafael Eubanks, Dan Doering and Bryan Bulaga pose for photographs Aug. 4 during Football Media Day in Iowa City.


<!--main facts-->Depth chart
First team
• LT Bryan Bulaga, So., 6-6, 301 / LT Andy Kuempel, Jr., 6-7, 300
• LG Dan Doering, Jr., 6-6, 300 / LG Julian Vandervelde, So., 6-3, 300
• C Rob Bruggeman, Sr., 6-3, 287 / C Rafael Eubanks, Jr., 6-3, 285
• RG Seth Olsen, Sr., 6-5, 305
• RT Kyle Calloway, Jr., 6-7, 317
Eubanks, Olsen and Calloway started all 12 games last season. Bulaga and Doering started the final five games a year ago. Both were Parade All-Americans (as was Olsen). Bulaga was just a true freshman, starting the most games on the O-line as a freshman since Mike Jones (2003). Bruggeman was competing for a starting spot in the spring of 2007 before a knee injury sidelined him. Vandervelde started six games last year before being replaced.
 
Wow, I love this play even more now.. Key game next week vs ISU..

As expected 2 down, 5 to go:smiley_acbe:
 
Tee -

Will you be playing them ATS next week? I'm interested in looking at them for a play next week.
 
RambleOn said:
Tee -

Will you be playing them ATS next week? I'm interested in looking at them for a play next week.
Click to expand...

Most likley.. They are so much better than people think. Especially on defense.. Ferentz does this every so often... That is -- bring along a great class of linemen. And bring them along slowly, together. This year is the pay-off year. They are loaded on both sides of the ball in the trenches.. Will get very little attention because it is so subtle.. In the talent weak Big Ten, Iowa will have a great ATS record IMO..
 
Bump.. Hawkeyes now 3-0 with key victory over ISU.. Defense looks very strong and running game with Greene is going to be tough to stop..

:smiley_acbe:
 
looking good ... 2-1 from that group would ahv ebeen devastating but they got threw the clones.

tossup type gaem this week with pitt , hope they come through for you !
 
bump.
5 wins, 4 to go, need 7 for push 8 for win

Push looks likely.. Minny better than I expected and Illy and Purdue not quite as good.. Penn State may have problems on the road if you look at the situation but that is 80% LOSS for Iowa, so key game looks like Illy on the road..


<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>November 1</TD><TD>at Illinois </TD><TD>3:30 PM ET </TD><TD>Tickets</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>November 8</TD><TD>No. 3 Penn State </TD><TD>TBA </TD><TD>Tickets</TD></TR><TR class=oddrow vAlign=top><TD>November 15</TD><TD>Purdue </TD><TD>TBA </TD><TD>Tickets</TD></TR><TR class=evenrow vAlign=top><TD>November 22</TD><TD>at No. 24 Minnesota </TD><TD>7:05 PM ET Big Ten Network </TD><TD>Tickets</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- begin sp links -->
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bump

got my 7 wins and no worse than a push.. Need #8 next week at Minny for 10 units..

Always funny to read through the original writeup.. Had it pretty much nailed but didn't even mention Shonn Greene who has at least 100 yards in every game this year and probably is the best RB in the country. Actually didn't even know about him at the beginning of the year.. Out of FB last year and will make millions next year..
 
Also, with the effort Minny just put out today only to lose the axe, their season is done. Like the potential value next week.
 
Joe Public said:
Also, with the effort Minny just put out today only to lose the axe, their season is done. Like the potential value next week.
Click to expand...

What do you think they make the line Joe? Around a pick I think.. I will pound Iowa at anything -3 or below... Your thoughts?
 
Shonn Greene might be the best back in the nation and is deserving of heisman consideration which he will never get.

great bet on the season wins ... quite frankly you should have won this already were it not for the 3 games where they outplayed their opponent and lost ( pitt , nw and msu ).

I love your chances next week but i would be surprised if the line was as low as you guys are predicting.

I liked this bet as well but never did bet it. Win or Push it was a great bet Tee,
 
Sorry, Tee, didn't see this until now and it's just as well I don't really have enough under my belt right now to set that line. Six is interesting, in the NFL that would normally push me away, but here I think I still might bite.
 
Joe Public said:
Sorry, Tee, didn't see this until now and it's just as well I don't really have enough under my belt right now to set that line. Six is interesting, in the NFL that would normally push me away, but here I think I still might bite.
Click to expand...

-6, wow.. leaves me a real easy ML hedge on Minny if I chose..Hedging off a "no worse than push" bet is not something I normally do though. If my bet was 7.5 wins, that would make me really consider..:4_12_12:

Opinions welcome..A bunch of guys have followed Iowa closely all year like I have.. 10 units riding so it will have my attn all week.:shake:

Item of note--- The crowd at this game is typically loaded with Iowa fans--am I not right Marlo? Last game for Minny at the dome I believe. That would be a fun one to go to... May have to look into that. Easy flight.
 
Normally I'm a big 'last game at that stadium' guy, those situations tend to present opportunity. The question here is, does this game really matter to Minny.

They just lost the axe game, they tried, came up short, they come home disappointed, with not much to look forward to but the offseason. Yes, it's the last game in the dome, but part of me thinks that might even be more motivation for them to get it all over with.
 
when you made the bet , monnesota had to be considered as one of your wins. I am not a believer in hedging as I think it is bad business.....

because you can only hedge out of your good bets , when you have a bad bet you are usually stuck with it.

Regardless of whether minnesota wins and gives you a push , i think the correct move from a business standpoint is to keep the bet.

Also while this is a 10 unit bet ... you usually have a good 4 units on a single game anyway ( 8.4 unit swing riding on the event ) so the 10 units at risk here ( 10 unit swing riding on the event ) is not really above your norm by all that much.

Personally i would keep my bet but realize i may be in the minority.

Actually , if i were to hedge in this event it would not be ml ..... i would hedge with the points and hope to middle. But like i said , i think hedging is bad business.
 
vegaskyle said:
when you made the bet , monnesota had to be considered as one of your wins. I am not a believer in hedging as I think it is bad business.....

because you can only hedge out of your good bets , when you have a bad bet you are usually stuck with it.

Regardless of whether minnesota wins and gives you a push , i think the correct move from a business standpoint is to keep the bet.

Also while this is a 10 unit bet ... you usually have a good 4 units on a single game anyway ( 8.4 unit swing riding on the event ) so the 10 units at risk here ( 10 unit swing riding on the event ) is not really above your norm by all that much.

Personally i would keep my bet but realize i may be in the minority.

Actually , if i were to hedge in this event it would not be ml ..... i would hedge with the points and hope to middle. But like i said , i think hedging is bad business.
Click to expand...

Yep, had Minny as an easy win. But had losses to Penn St and Wisky which both ended up as wins.. Had NW and Mich State as wins which were losses... go figure...


Also Joe--- think the winner of this game gets either the Captital One bowl or Outback Bowl.. New Years day bowl should provide plenty of motivation for Minny but as you said,, they have been spiraling..
 
Also Joe--- think the winner of this game gets either the Captital One bowl or Outback Bowl.. New Years day bowl should provide plenty of motivation for Minny but as you said,, they have been spiraling..

That's good to know. Mostly from a point spread angle. Now I'm not as crazy about laying that six.
 
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