Central Mich @ Northern Illinois -3.5 ... Let's Discuss!

Aztec4Life

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
This is a real, real tough game to cap, IMO.

CMU handled NIU with ease last season, beating the Huskies 35-10...however, this is clearly not the same NIU team.

Anyone know LeFevour's status? Is he close to 100% yet? He is always the X-Factor in any CMU game, at least in my opinion.

CMU has, without question, the more explosive and potent offense with LeFevour and Antonio Brown. Yet, NIU statistically has the superior defense. This will be CMU's 3rd straight road game...not to mention, they've got Ball State on deck, with the MAC West title on the line, so there could be a bit of a look ahead factor.

Having said that, the Chippewas have had 11 days to prepare for NIU, while the Huskies played last Wednesday, so in comparison, it's a shorter week of preparation for NIU. If CMU is focused on NIU, and ready for tomorrow night's contest, those extra 3-4 days should definitely help them.

CMU continues to find a way to win, even with LeFevour out (last week)...and NIU was blown out by Ball State last Wednesday, so you know they'll put forth and inspired effort tomorrow.

I lean CMU, if LeFevour is near 100% and ready to go...if not, it'll probably be a no play for me.

Just getting some discussion started on this...

:cheers:
 
This is a real, real tough game to cap, IMO.


yup.

niu defense is not just statistically better than cmich .. it is better.

line is proper here at 3 or 4 points in my opinion but like you said .. very tough to cap this thing.
 
Who cares if LeFevour is healthy, his backup Brian Brunner was named National Offensive Player of the Week last time out.
 
There's a chance I'm on CMU here - I planned to bet NIU a lot this year, but they have gotten an awful lot of credit all year long.
 
love cmu pts and or ml if LeFevor plays

if he doesnt will still take CMU bit not as big.

where is this line going to 3 or 4 ?
 
pcb525 said:
Who cares if LeFevour is healthy, his backup Brian Brunner was named National Offensive Player of the Week last time out.
Click to expand...

CMU was lucky to win their last game, especially with LeFevour out...even when hobbled, he's still a major part of their running game, and often scrambles on 3rd and long, picking up key first downs with his legs. CMU was completely one dimensional on offense last week, and if they are this week, it will be very tough for them to cover.
 
Probably on NIU . Ball State is 2 entirely different teams home and away so last weeks NIU game doesnt mean much IMO . Well CMU also hasnt been very sharp on the road either IMO. CMU barely won @ Indiana , @ Toledo and @ Ohio this year with those wins coming by 7 total points . Just think you throw out last game NIU has been in every game this year and was kinda ready for a blowout . CMU is basically in the same spot now. I would be suprised if CMU broke 21 pts here think 24 is tops. CMU has rarely allowed less then 28 pts and think just 1 on teh road . Boo Jackson had 360 yds passing and 3 Tds.....:cheers:
 
I'm leaning over...Each teams offensive strengths match up with the opposing defensive weekness. CMU passing offense v. NIU passing defense, and NIU rushing offense v. CMU rush defense.
 
IMO, we shouldn't look too much at NIU's home defensive numbers this year, they haven't played anyone in Dekalb with a record above .500

The numbers are further inflated by the indiana state game.

The best team the played at home this season was Bowling Green, who they beat by 3. Strangely BGU has done better on the road this year than at home.(4-2 on the road, while 1-3 at home.)
 
they historically annihilate cmich in dekalb though , don't they ? .. prretty sure recently atleast.
 
again ,,, i think line is right so i am just going to play devils advocate both ways the whole thread .. hehe
 
From CMU site




Steve Bushong
ChippewaCountry.com Senior Editor
<SCRIPT language=javascript>document.write("<div id=contentcontainer style='font-size: " + currentsize + "pt;'>");</SCRIPT>Talk about it in the Message Boards


The Central Michigan Chippewas' sixth MAC contest of the year is against the Northern Illinois Huskies. CMU has continued its two years of MAC domination with another undefeated MAC record in 2008. The Huskies enter the contest with an overall record of 5-4, with a 4-2 MAC record.

The Huskies are fresh off a 45-14 thrashing in DeKalb, courtesy of the no. 17 ranked Ball State Cardinals. CMU last contest came against at Big Ten opponent Indiana. The Chippewas used a scoreless fourth quarter defensive performance to earn their first Big Ten victory in sixteen years.

This MAC West contest will be televised on ESPN 2, with kickoff slated to start at 8:00 PM ET. Being one win shy of being bowl eligible, coupled with the opportunity to knock off the two-time MAC Champs, means that the Chippewas are sure to get the Huskies best effort.

It does not take a statistical genius to look at NIU and figure them for a defensively minded team. The Huskies get by with their top ranked MAC scoring defense (17.1 points per game) and a heavy dose of their third ranked MAC rushing offense (181.6 yards per game).

For the season, the Huskies have recorded a whopping 357 rushing attempts (almost 40 rush attempts per game), to just 190 pass attempts (a 65/35 breakdown). The Huskies have an astounding five players with over 20 rush attempts. This approach has not been very successful, as the Huskies rank 85th in the nation in total offense. The Huskies strong rushing offense against CMU's strong rush defense (ranked third in the MAC) will be a strength verses strength matchup.

Leading this tailback-by-committee approach is 5-foot-7 freshman #45 Me'co Brown with 97 carries for 481 yards (5.0 ypc) and two scores. Brown saw his busiest day two weeks ago against Bowling Green with 20 carries in a narrow 16-13 win. However, Brown only saw three carries last week against Ball State.

The Huskies will go with another freshman at quarterback in #12 Chandler Harnish. Chandler has a very Tim Tebow-like running style, minus a capable arm to get the ball downfield. Against Ball State, Harnish recorded 12 carries for 59 yards and one touchdown. The Huskies bread and butter on offense is a basic power play that is a designed run by Harnish with a pulling guard in front of him.

The Huskies use several difficult looks in an attempt to confuse the defense and cover up their inadequacies at receiver. The Huskies do not have a receiver who has broken the 300 yard barrier this year. Chippewa fans can expect everything from a basic pro style offense, to a shotgun with two backs, to a five-wide super spread.

As was previously mentioned, the strength of the Huskies lies in their defense. The Huskies lead the MAC in scoring defense and yards allowed (296.3 ypg). However, this vaunted defense was nowhere to be found last week as Nate Davis, MiQuale Lewis, and company racked up 529 yards of total offense and 45 points.

The Huskies line up in a basic 4-3 look. Overall, the Huskies play very good team defense, as no Huskies have recorded over 50 tackles for the season. Safety #4 David Bryant is the Huskies leading tackler with 49.

Two players to look out for on the Huskies defense are #51 DE Larry English and #24 Bradley Pruitt. English has had a down year with only 4.5 sacks (team leader), but he possesses excellent pass rush skills and could have a breakout game. Pruitt is perhaps the best coverage player in the Huskies secondary, as he two interceptions to his credit (one of which was returned 54 yards for a touchdown).

CMU and NIU both take good care of the ball, as they have no. 4 and no. 5 ranked turnover margins in the MAC, respectively. A lack of turnovers on both sides of the ball will place an emphasis on getting off the field on third down, something CMU has not done well this season.

Dan LeFevour figures to be back under center, as he has had 19 days to rest both of his sprained ankles. If LeFevour can't go again, backup Brian Brunner has proven himself more than capable.

This game has two strength v. strength matchups. The aforementioned NIU run game v. the CMU rush defense is going to be a big key. However, another matchup to watch will be the top ranked Huskie pass defense against the high-powered Chippewa passing attack.

In the end, look for CMU to win both of these matchups. Defensive tackles Mark Dietz, Sean Murnane, Tredale Kennedy, and freshman John Williams provide a deep and stout rotation that will be difficult to block. Wideouts Bryan Anderson, Antonio Brown, Joe Bockheim, and the ever improving Kito Poblah are too many options to defend.

Final score:

CMU 31
NIU 17
 
Like I said last week, I don't believe Harnish can beat them with his arm. CMU secondary sucks but Harnish is a low risk - low reward type passer who prob goes 6/11 for 80 yards or something, that type of night is a lot more common that that outliner of 340 he had. I believe he has 3 games with around 50 yds passing? I like CMU on the ML tonight and then BSU over CMU next week because Nate Davis will crush that secondary.
 
Leaning CMU here myself as I pretty much agree with the writeup ETG provides...think the slightly better team catching more than a FG is the way to go...

CMU and the Lakeshow (BAR tail) will be my plays tonite. :shake:
 
SportsNut said:
Probably on NIU . Ball State is 2 entirely different teams home and away so last weeks NIU game doesnt mean much IMO . Well CMU also hasnt been very sharp on the road either IMO. CMU barely won @ Indiana , @ Toledo and @ Ohio this year with those wins coming by 7 total points . Just think you throw out last game NIU has been in every game this year and was kinda ready for a blowout . CMU is basically in the same spot now. I would be suprised if CMU broke 21 pts here think 24 is tops. CMU has rarely allowed less then 28 pts and think just 1 on teh road . Boo Jackson had 360 yds passing and 3 Tds.....:cheers:
Click to expand...

Lean NIU myself based on exactly this....BOL SN if you play it.
 
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>I think HOME/AWAY stats could play into the end result here, NIU 4-0 at home:

Home/Away | In-Depth | Last 3 HA

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards </TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>CMICH
NOILL
</TD><TD class=datacell>26.8
29.8
</TD><TD class=datacell>420.8
340.0
</TD><TD class=datacell>328.6
101.8
</TD><TD class=datacell>92.2
238.2
</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
5.4
</TD><TD class=datacell>7.5
6.6

</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>CMICH
NOILL
</TD><TD class=datacell>34.6
9.0
</TD><TD class=datacell>451.8
211.2
</TD><TD class=datacell>268.8
128.2
</TD><TD class=datacell>183.0
83.0
</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2
3.3

</TD><TD class=datacell>8.8
4.5

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Also, HEAD TO HEAD: CMICH is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with NIU.

I'd have to say NIU or nothing here gents; but BOL.

:cheers:
 
Just because I feel like debating this game and maybe add to the discussion here are my problems with the NIU side of things. Ok, everyone touted the defense last week and they got blown out, not because they were due for a blowout though. They got blown out because that was the first good QB they faced in their last 6 games. Please name me another QB that is remotely decent that NIU faced before Nate Davis and after the WMU game.. The 3 offenses with any type of pulse this year that NIU has faced (Ball St, Minnesota, Western Mich), they gave up an average of 35ppg and LOST all 3 games. I hate going against home teams mid-week like this and very rarely will I lay the points but CMU last played on 11/1 so they have more than enough time to prep for this showdown. The game @ Toledo, I had CMU and it was an awful spot and a bad bet, they just beat WMU who is a rival and they had Indiana on deck who isn't good but still a B10 team. The situation is good this week because the Ball St game won't matter next week if they lose. Again, like I said, I challenge Harnish to win this game with his arm and doubt he can do it. CMU is more explosive and the better team imo.
 
If cmu loses this game and beats ball state next week, what would be the tie breaker regarding two 1 loss teams. Head to Head?
 
guinness said:
If cmu loses this game and beats ball state next week, what would be the tie breaker regarding two 1 loss teams. Head to Head?
Click to expand...

Divisional Champions<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
The divisional championship shall be decided on conference winning percentage. If two or more teams are tied for the championship, they shall be considered divisional co-champions. The following tie-breaking formula shall be used to determine which team will represent that division in the MAC Championship game:<o:p></o:p>
<o:p></o:p>
1. Head-to-head competition<o:p></o:p>
a. In the event of a multiple-team (two or more teams) tie, the team with the best head-to-head record amongst the tied teams wins the tie-breaker;<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
b. In a two-team tie, head-to-head competition will be the first criteria; <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
c. If two teams did not play, the second criteria is used to break the tie; <o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
2. Record of tied teams within the division [versus rank order, highest to lowest, of division teams]<o:p></o:p>
a. The above tie-breaker procedure is used to determine rank order in the division;<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
b. Team(s) eliminated in the second tie-breaker criterion are not included in further consideration in the tie- breaking formula;<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
c. Head-to-head competition is again used to break the tie between the remaining tied teams.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
3. Comparison of conference winning percentage of cross-over opponents of tied teams;<o:p></o:p>
a. Tie-breaker is awarded to the team whose cross-division opponents had the best cumulative conference winning percentage;<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
b. Head-to-head competition is used to break the tie between the two tied teams.<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
4. If multiple teams remain tied, the final tie-breaker is as follows:<o:p></o:p>
a. Record of tied teams versus cross-division opponents in rank order;<o:p></o:p>
<o:p> </o:p>
b. Head-to-head competition is used to break the tie between the two tied teams.<o:p></o:p>
 
E.T.G. said:
Just because I feel like debating this game and maybe add to the discussion here are my problems with the NIU side of things. Ok, everyone touted the defense last week and they got blown out, not because they were due for a blowout though. They got blown out because that was the first good QB they faced in their last 6 games. Please name me another QB that is remotely decent that NIU faced before Nate Davis and after the WMU game.. The 3 offenses with any type of pulse this year that NIU has faced (Ball St, Minnesota, Western Mich), they gave up an average of 35ppg and LOST all 3 games. I hate going against home teams mid-week like this and very rarely will I lay the points but CMU last played on 11/1 so they have more than enough time to prep for this showdown. The game @ Toledo, I had CMU and it was an awful spot and a bad bet, they just beat WMU who is a rival and they had Indiana on deck who isn't good but still a B10 team. The situation is good this week because the Ball St game won't matter next week if they lose. Again, like I said, I challenge Harnish to win this game with his arm and doubt he can do it. CMU is more explosive and the better team imo.
Click to expand...

I agree with you...I plyaed NIU last week and their defense showed me nothing..Hell, Miami Oh did a better job against Davis and Co last night and dont tell me its because Miami was at home.....

Bottom line - its CMU's QB (doesnt matter to me) vs a true freshman for NIU..He looked putrid vs Ball St last week.......If this kid can beat CMU, more power to him...Plus, CMU's coaches should be able to scheme this kid with 11 days to prepare, no matter how shitty their defense is....
 
before anyone plays the over i would wait and see if the fog burns out...anyone live around Dekalb that could give updates???
 
From the national weather service:

Point Forecast: Dekalb IL
41.9N 88.73W

This Afternoon: Areas of drizzle. Cloudy, with a high near 49. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: Areas of drizzle before midnight. Patchy fog. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 41. Southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.
 
I probably should of clarified what I meant when I said for CMU that the BSU game would mean nothing with a loss. Yes, if CMU lost this week and than beat BSU, they'd own the H2H tiebreaker over them but what I really mean is, coming off a bye with 10 days to prepare for NIU, I believe the focus of the team and the gameplan is on NIU because a loss to NIU and a SU loss to BSU all but eliminates them from the MAC-West title game. If they beat NIU, head into the showdown with BSU and lose, Ball St still has to play WMU and there would be a 3way tie in the conference if WMU won that game. I just don't think there is any look-ahead to BSU coming off the bye. Furthermore, I bet that CMU @ Toledo game and watched that miserable game take place, Toledo needed every break in the world to stay in that game.
 
CMU looks to break losing streak at DeKalbWednesday, November 12, 2008 6:40 AM ESTBy DREW ELLISSun Sports WriterThe Central Michigan football program has accomplished a lot over the last two seasons.It started with winning the Mid-American Conference title in 2006.Then the Chippewas ended its losing streak at Western Michigan. Another MAC title followed to end 2007, and just this year, the Chippewas finally picked up a win over the Big Ten, beating Indiana on Nov. 1.But, even with all these accomplishments, CMU has still yet to get a win at Northern Illinois dating back to 1977, losing its last eight meetings in DeKalb, Ill."We haven't won there in 31 years and there are a number of things that go into that," CMU coach Butch Jones said. "It is extremely difficult to win on the road in this conference and Northern Illinois has always done a good job of protecting their home turf."CMU has actually had plenty of success on the road, winning 12 of its last 14 MAC road games, but tonight's 8 p.m. contest with the Huskies is more than just an average game.The Chippewas are looking to keep pace with Ball State in the MAC standings, as both sit unbeaten in conference play, with a potential matchup for the MAC West title waiting next Wednesday."I don't even know who we play next week, all I am thinking about is Northern Illinois and the great challenge that they pose for us," Jones said. "We have played one game at a time all season and this one will be no different. We have to be focused on Northern Illinois."The Chippewas ended a nine-game losing streak to the Huskies last season in a 35-10 win at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. This season, the Huskies have been tough for anyone to beat, racking up a 5-4 record and a 4-2 mark in the MAC under first-year coach, Jerry Kill.Prior to last week's 45-14 loss to Ball State, NIU had lost three games by no more than four points. On the season, the Huskies are 4-0 at Huskie Stadium."Our kids understand that we can't always control things on the road, but we can control our destiny at home," Kill said. "If you want to be a good football team, you have to win at home, and we have done that this season."CMU has been off for 10 days, allowing the Chippewas to heal up a little bit. The Chippewas are expecting quarterback Dan LeFevour to return tonight, along with defensive tackle, Casey Droscha, who will play with a torn ACL in his knee. Center Colin Miller also returned to practice this week, but will be a game-time decision."This late in the season you will take as many extra days as possible in order to heal up as much as you can," Jones said. "We are expecting some guys to come back and some guys are going to play hurt. In a collision sport like this, you have to play hurt at times and our guys are willing to do that to help the team."NIU has been led by its defense all season as the Huskies have allowed under 300 yards per-game. The Huskies have forced 15 turnovers on the season and have racked up 14 sacks, led by defensive end Larry English, who was the 2007 MAC Defensive MVP."Larry English is a great player but what makes him so tough to defend is that if you focus solely on stopping him, NIU has plenty of other guys that can step in," Jones said. "We just have to do our best to contain him and keep him off of our quarterbacks, but we can't turn all our attention to him because then the rest of their defensive line will hurt us."On offense, the Huskies have been hit and miss, but have a strong weapon in quarterback Chandler Harnish, who can throw and pass. On the season Harnish has thrown for 765 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 266 yards and one score."NIU presents a lot of challenges on offense because Harnish is a factor in the run and the pass," Jones said. "(NIU) likes to keep you unbalanced and use leverage to move the ball. They are a physical team and play with a lot of toughness."If CMU wins tonight, it would be the Chippewas sixth straight win and assure the Chippewas a chance to win the MAC West Division title against Ball State next week.Kickoff for tonight's game is set for 8 p.m.
 
As much as everyone says that NIU Defense showed them nothing last week, what did Miami Ohios offense show us last week- prob alot less than NIU defense, yet they came out firing last night...just something to think about
 
The_HAMMER said:
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>I think HOME/AWAY stats could play into the end result here, NIU 4-0 at home:

Home/Away | In-Depth | Last 3 HA



</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards </TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>CMICH
NOILL


</TD><TD class=datacell>26.8
29.8


</TD><TD class=datacell>420.8
340.0


</TD><TD class=datacell>328.6
101.8


</TD><TD class=datacell>92.2
238.2


</TD><TD class=datacell>2.7
5.4


</TD><TD class=datacell>7.5
6.6



</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>CMICH
NOILL


</TD><TD class=datacell>34.6
9.0


</TD><TD class=datacell>451.8
211.2


</TD><TD class=datacell>268.8
128.2


</TD><TD class=datacell>183.0
83.0


</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2
3.3



</TD><TD class=datacell>8.8
4.5



</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Also, HEAD TO HEAD: CMICH is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with NIU.

I'd have to say NIU or nothing here gents; but BOL.

:cheers:
Click to expand...

NIU was the much better program during all of those meetings in the past...quite possibly the class of the MAC, at the time. Things are different now, as the tables have turned, with C. Michigan being MAC West Champs two years in a row, and clearly having the superior skill position players. Also, let's take a look at who NIU has played at home so far this season...

Sep. 20 vs Indiana State (0-10) - won 48-3
Oct. 11 vs Miami OH (2-8) - won 17-13
Oct. 18 vs Toledo (2-7) - won 38-7
Oct. 25 vs Bowling Green (5-5) - won 16-13

So, the combined records of the teams they've played at home to this point is 9-30. IMO, there isn't much value behind that undefeated home record thus far. Indiana State, Miami OH, and Toledo are all very bad football teams...and NIU was rather lucky to squeak by Bowling Green.

Again, I'm leaning CMU here...

:shake:
 
Also...to bring up a point no one else has mentioned...it's quite possible NIU is still shell shocked from that thrashing they took last week at the hands of Ball State. There's really no telling if they'll come fired up, or still in a daze.
 
FWIW guys I found this on another site, free Dr. Bob play, do with it what you will:

NORTHERN ILL (-3.5) 32 Central Mich 19
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-12 - Stats Matchup
Central Michigan, at 7-2, has a better record than 5-4 Northern Illinois, but the Huskies are clearly the better team and are in a good situation to bounce back from last week’s 14-45 beating at unbeaten Ball State. Central Michigan is a pretty good offensive team by MAC standards, as the Chippewas have averaged 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but Northern Illinois is just as good defensively – allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team. The difference in this game is when the Huskies have the ball. Northern Illinois is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team), and 0.1 yppl worse than average with Chandler Harnish at quarterback, but Central Michigan is a horrendous 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively – allowing 6.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensie team. The Chippewas can’t stop the run (5.2 yprp allowed) or the pass (7.2 yppp allowed), so Northern Illinois should be able to sustain plenty of scoring drives while their defense limits Dan LeFevour and company. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 9 ½ points in this game and the Huskies apply to a very good 89-34-1 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s humiliating loss. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (at -115 or better odds) and for 2-Stars up to -6 points.
 
Zeke said:
FWIW guys I found this on another site, free Dr. Bob play, do with it what you will:

NORTHERN ILL (-3.5) 32 Central Mich 19
05:00 PM Pacific Time Wednesday, Nov-12 - Stats Matchup
Central Michigan, at 7-2, has a better record than 5-4 Northern Illinois, but the Huskies are clearly the better team and are in a good situation to bounce back from last week’s 14-45 beating at unbeaten Ball State.

NIU is in a better situation than CMU off a bye?


Central Michigan is a pretty good offensive team by MAC standards,

Maybe the best offense in the MAC?

as the Chippewas have averaged 5.7 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team, but Northern Illinois is just as good defensively – allowing 5.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team.

They've played 1 good offense in their last 7 games.

The difference in this game is when the Huskies have the ball. Northern Illinois is 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.7 yppl to an average team), and 0.1 yppl worse than average with Chandler Harnish at quarterback, but Central Michigan is a horrendous 1.0 yppl worse than average defensively – allowing 6.3 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl against an average defensie team. The Chippewas can’t stop the run (5.2 yprp allowed) or the pass (7.2 yppp allowed),

Harnish can't pass

so Northern Illinois should be able to sustain plenty of scoring drives while their defense limits Dan LeFevour and company. My math model favors Northern Illinois by 9 ½ points in this game

Fix the model

and the Huskies apply to a very good 89-34-1 ATS blowout bounce-back situation that is based on last week’s humiliating loss. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -3 or less (at -115 or better odds) and for 2-Stars up to -6 points.
Click to expand...


Thans for the post Zeke... Now lets break down his reasoning..
 
Dr. Bob loves to throw out stats that favor his logic and reasoning, and always ignores others.

His writeups, like almost all writeups, are just a persuasive argument as to why to bet his side of the game, and like most - ignores every good reason to bet the other team. Lets face it, at the heart of it he is a tout and all paying customers want good reasons to bet his sides. The best part of his argument is that he has NIU as a -9.5 pt fav - if he would stop there it would be much more credible.

Things like "Huskies apply to a very good 89-34-1 ATS blowout bounce-back situation" are just utter nonsense. Im sure the Chippawas apply to some "101-22-5 ATS Nov 12 games in Illinois" situation.

What Dr Bob does for me is give me better lines, like he did tonight.
 
E.T.G. said:
Just because I feel like debating this game and maybe add to the discussion here are my problems with the NIU side of things. Ok, everyone touted the defense last week and they got blown out, not because they were due for a blowout though. They got blown out because that was the first good QB they faced in their last 6 games. Please name me another QB that is remotely decent that NIU faced before Nate Davis and after the WMU game.. The 3 offenses with any type of pulse this year that NIU has faced (Ball St, Minnesota, Western Mich), they gave up an average of 35ppg and LOST all 3 games. I hate going against home teams mid-week like this and very rarely will I lay the points but CMU last played on 11/1 so they have more than enough time to prep for this showdown. The game @ Toledo, I had CMU and it was an awful spot and a bad bet, they just beat WMU who is a rival and they had Indiana on deck who isn't good but still a B10 team. The situation is good this week because the Ball St game won't matter next week if they lose. Again, like I said, I challenge Harnish to win this game with his arm and doubt he can do it. CMU is more explosive and the better team imo.
Click to expand...

GL ETG. I think there needs to be alot more seperation in how teams play home vs away . ALL 3 NIU games you mentioned on the road. Much tougher for the smaller conference teams to play at the bigger venues . Not so much because of anything more then these teams are tough to beat at home . Thats why no one schedules mid majors in college sports unless its usally at home . The bigger schools pay a few backs so they dont have a tough game .

Indiana is beyond not good they are terrible . It had nothing to do with spot really for CMU in as they have snuck by every game this year even temple at home . Whats the reasoning for ohio U or needing a comeback @ IU ? CMU was a home dog to WMU as well .

I just dont see a very good CMU offense at all this year and the defense still remains a concern. Its 9 games deep and CMU has topped 27 pts only 4 x getting 31 and 38 twice . Talk about defenses look at CMU schedule...@ Indiana @ Toledo , @ Ohio U and home vs WMU , Buffalo and Eastern Illinois . I'll give some credit to Purdue's defense which didnt play nearly as well as it did last year and Temple 's D while Georgia's is obviously pretty solid.

So the NIU defense isnt that good because of its opponents doesnt hold more weight because look at who CMU offense is playing vs andnot producing mch better then medicore stats ......

Kinda of sucks at -4 but expect NIU to win this game so might just due a 3 or 4 team ML parlay instead ......

GL :cheers:
 
SportsNut said:
GL ETG. I think there needs to be alot more seperation in how teams play home vs away . ALL 3 NIU games you mentioned on the road. Much tougher for the smaller conference teams to play at the bigger venues . Not so much because of anything more then these teams are tough to beat at home . Thats why no one schedules mid majors in college sports unless its usally at home . The bigger schools pay a few backs so they dont have a tough game .

Indiana is beyond not good they are terrible . It had nothing to do with spot really for CMU in as they have snuck by every game this year even temple at home . Whats the reasoning for ohio U or needing a comeback @ IU ? CMU was a home dog to WMU as well .

I just dont see a very good CMU offense at all this year and the defense still remains a concern. Its 9 games deep and CMU has topped 27 pts only 4 x getting 31 and 38 twice . Talk about defenses look at CMU schedule...@ Indiana @ Toledo , @ Ohio U and home vs WMU , Buffalo and Eastern Illinois . I'll give some credit to Purdue's defense which didnt play nearly as well as it did last year and Temple 's D while Georgia's is obviously pretty solid.

So the NIU defense isnt that good because of its opponents doesnt hold more weight because look at who CMU offense is playing vs andnot producing mch better then medicore stats ......

Kinda of sucks at -4 but expect NIU to win this game so might just due a 3 or 4 team ML parlay instead ......

GL :cheers:
Click to expand...


That's what I was getting at brother.....you said it better! GL.
 
MAYBE the Minnesota game SN, but the MAC venues are a joke...really don't think Nilly was too intimidated playing at WM or Ball St; really think they're D has struggled vs good QB's (and offenses) and has little to do with the venue. CM's offense right there in the same ballpark.
 
horses said:
MAYBE the Minnesota game SN, but the MAC venues are a joke...really don't think Nilly was too intimidated playing at WM or Ball St; really think they're D has struggled vs good QB's (and offenses) and has little to do with the venue. CM's offense right there in the same ballpark.
Click to expand...

I dont mean intimidated but teams are just night and day performance wise home v away IMO in most cases but especially the mid majors.

My point was Ball State was a significantly better team at home then when it travels. So using an NIU game @ Ball State is not a fair indication IMO . With WMU think they were TD dogs and played well but CMU was actually a small home pup vs WMU. Incorrectly so but nevertheless at best CMU should have been a FG favs . Which really tells us that playing @ WMU is just as tough as @ CMU.

Just think CMU offense is overrated scoring about 28 pts on avg vs terrible competition and while I dont expect NIU to stop them I do expect CMU to have to work for their points here . CMU defense is poor and has made alot of bad teams , offenses and QBs look good IMO .

Home field just means to much when you basically have equal teams IMO.....:cheers:
 
Home v Away comparisions are generally about comfort and performance levels IMO. Not intimidation or motivation . There is a reason why home field is an edge and its alot deeper then having some fans cheer you and boo the opponent .
 
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