Carolinablue Week 0/1 CFB Plays

carolinablue

carolinablue

College Football Guru
2024 Season --> 165-129 +12.99 units

Had the honor of being inducted into the Michigan Professional Wrestling Hall of Fame the last weekend of June with none other than the youngest NWA world champion in history, the one and only Wildfire Tommy Rich. Was great to be back in Detroit after 15+ years and I must admit that the city had undergone an amazing transformation which I wouldn't have believed if I hadn't seen it with my own eyes. Had an amazing time hanging out in downtown Detroit checking out all the sights and sounds first hand. Also, had a blast getting to step back into the ring one last time down in Lincoln Park, as hearing those "Downriver Dimwits" boo and jeer me made it feel just like old times haha. But enough about that, it's time to get down to business, no I don't mean The Hurt Business...I mean the business of making money, so let's get this party started!

Was planning to use FD and BM exclusively this year, but BM was not able to get my card to work even after my bank said all was clear, so guess it wasn't meant to be, but all good, as FD was the clear winner over BM last year in terms of opening lines on a consistent basis in 2024, but it does hurt a bit in week 1, as there were 3 lines I was hoping to hit now at BM, but won't be able to take advantage (update below).

Not sure which book to leverage as a 2nd option as most are just too quick to limit and end up being a waste of time, but always open to suggesions as it is a new year and I am open to giving some books a 2nd look if they are willing to not be so quick to run off halfway decent players. Decided to check out BOL again and couldn't believe they are now charging 12.5% for CC deposits (BM ate the fees which I why I liked having them as a 2nd option last year, as any deposit fees, whether it be for CC or for BTC transfers etc just make it that much more difficult to secure net profit, which is my end goal in all of this).

No plays in Week 0 or Week 1 so far, but will drop a list down below of ones that are currently on the "potential" list. I did make one "future" game play for Week 2, taking Illinois ML 125 at Duke (FanDuel) and I will be sure to remember to post that one again when Week 2 rolls around.

We are getting closer boys....Wish you all your most profitable season to date!

Week 1 Plays
8/28 6pm Rutgers -9.5 133 BM
8/28 7pm UCF -15.5 117 BM
8/29 7pm Michigan State -16.5 146 BM
8/30 2:30pm Indiana -22.5 117 BM
8/30 3:30pm Temple ML 140 FD
 
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Potential plays currently under review on the short list...

  • Rutgers - BM has it at 9.5 133 but as noted above, BM not an option for me, so hoping it drops a bit at FD over the next month (currently 12.5 105), but will probably play it at anything 12.5 or less regardless
  • Fresno State - BM has it at 14.5 120 which is another line I would have taken as FD has 13.5 110. Will play it at FD if it gets to 14.5.
  • Michigan State - Don't like the 18.5 at FD as I would prefer 16.5 130 or less before I would hit the submit button
  • UCF - Currently at 16.5 110 at FD and I like but don't love this one, so not going to rush
  • UNLV - Currently at 12.5 110 at FD which is not a bad line and I thought about taking it but want to wait and see if it moves to 11 or 13 first
  • Wisky - Currently at 17.5 105 at FD and I will probably take it if it gets to 16.5
  • Buffalo - BM has 18 125 which I would have taken as FD only has 16.5. Hoping FD gets to at least 18 and it will be a play as I am not sold on Minny
  • Indiana - Currently at 23.5 110 at FD and I like this line and don't think it will get under 23, so probably will take it sooner vs later as I think 28 is possible
  • Utah - This one is getting out of value range for me as I was hoping for 2.5 but now seeing 4.5 105 at FD. Nice job by those who grabbed the early line here
  • Miss State - This is risky but I kinda like the 12.5 110 at FD. If it starts moving, I may lock it in as I don't want to cross 14 here
  • Toledo/Kentucky - First total on my list as I think it gets at least into low/mid 50s but no reason to rush given the fact it is moving down...48.5 105 currently at FD
  • Oregon State/Cal - Second total on my list...currently at 51.5 110 at FD and I think this one is mid/high 50's...wouldn't mind a 50.5 with some juice in case 27-24
  • UNCC - This one is intriguing as it will be taking place at BoA and both sides should have a decent crowd especially with the game now on Friday...+10.5 idea

None of these have lines yet, but you guys know I love the under the radar games, so here are a few I have my eyes on...
  • Montana State as a dog
  • SMU/East Texas A&M over
  • UConn
  • Abilene Christian as a dog
  • Maine as a dog
  • Illinois as a heavy fav
  • Army/Tarleton over
  • Oklahoma as a heavy fav
  • Arkansas as a heavy fav
  • Missouri as a heavy fav
 
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V.K. said:
Hmmm, DK had Rutgers -10.5. Right now it's not on their board.
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Great to see you drop in the thread man. I turned the page on DK last year after they dropped me down to such ridiculous limits it made it worthless for me to waste my time with them anymore. After I tried to get answers from those guys they pretty much blew me off, so I haven't looked back since. Best of luck this year man!
 
From Heritage Sports chat when I asked if my account will be still limited in terms of specific max wager sizes tied to my account number this upcoming cfb season...Basically, they won't be adjusted until I start losing more I guess...Oh well, won't be using Heritage this season and wanted to put this out there as a heads up to you guys that's all.

Those are the limits for the profile your account is currently on, cannot be changed per customer request,. Our Risk Management team is continuously evaluating player activity and will adjust limits according to their analysis. It is a constant and ongoing process.
To make sure about your limits you can place a wager and before confirm you will see what is the minimum and maximum
 
Finally got things sorted out with BM and the CC as it ended up being a miscommunication between the processors due to the currency conversion or some whatever. Anyway, once again, all is right with the world and you may now return to your regularly scheduled programming...
 
Added 8/28 6pm Rutgers -9.5 133 BM

We all have those "off-brand" teams each season that we seemingly find ourselves putting money on more than we even realize and for me Rutgers out of the gate every year is one of those no doubt. Really enjoy the random 6pm Thursday night kickoffs and they always seem to come through, as Schiano knows what's up like R Truth!
 
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Going to be more selective with teams not playing at home early on, so gonna scratch UNLV, Utah, Miss State and Buffalo from the potentials list, which means someone is gonna make a killing by putting all 4 in a round robin as I am now convinced they will all cash easily.
 
@carolinablue I remember watching Wildfire way back when. I was pretty excited when cable came along in CA. Was able to watch NWA/WCW On The Superstation TBS At 3:05 on the west coast. Maybe I've seen ya on TV, but your like Superman in the ring, and Clark Kent online! Haha.

Good Luck This Season!
 
Vapster said:
@carolinablue I remember watching Wildfire way back when. I was pretty excited when cable came along in CA. Was able to watch NWA/WCW On The Superstation TBS At 3:05 on the west coast. Maybe I've seen ya on TV, but your like Superman in the ring, and Clark Kent online! Haha.

Good Luck This Season!
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Yeah I used to enjoy watching at 6:05pm like clockwork...Was a huge fan of all the territories back then, everything from Florida to UWF to Mid Atlantic to World Class to AWA to California Championship Wrestling and everything in between!

I am not ashamed to admit that I was like a doe eyed school girl sitting in the dressing room next to Wildfire drinkin beers together and then having him ask me to put his cell into my phone so me and my wife can hang with him and his when we are down in Myrtle Beach later this month since he is living there these days. Crazy stuff man!
 
I cant believe we are at the time of the year when people are discussing and locking in CFB plays. We will have end of season baseball, college foots, NFL, and college baskets right aroumd the corner.

What a time for sports fans!
 
Congrats on the induction and starting this thread for 2025!! Any thoughts on a national champion?
LFG!!
 
wiseplayer said:
Congrats on the induction and starting this thread for 2025!! Any thoughts on a national champion?
LFG!!
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Thanks WP…The way my brain works, I have no idea about playoffs or national championship contenders at this point, as there are tons of guys way better than me when it comes to the season long stuff like that.

Right now just working on narrowing down the Week 0/1 plays as like I say every year, I am the tortoise, as slow and steady wins the race, so all plays to win 1 unit, no chasing, no forcing, just grinding out boring, consistent profit week in and week out!
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
Congratulations!!!!

Love the fighting Illini this year

Best of luck brother , may this be your best season to date
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Thanks DU4L, same to you brother!

I figure this line might be 3+ by the time week 2 rolls around so getting the ML was a no brainer for me as Illinois will need to win a few on the road if they are gonna do any damage this year.
 
slim5150 said:
I cant believe we are at the time of the year when people are discussing and locking in CFB plays. We will have end of season baseball, college foots, NFL, and college baskets right aroumd the corner.

What a time for sports fans!
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Yeah Slim, next month can’t get here fast enough. Looking forward to that first Saturday morning to hunt those under the radar obscure lines I love jumping on at open. Best of luck to ya this year!
 
Going to catch up on your stuff this afternoon, just want to say congrats on the HOF. Pretty cool deal.
 
Liking Michigan State the more I dig into it but hoping to get 16.5 at a decent price before I lock it in.

May skip Wisky given some of the uncertainty as I get more into their potential red flags. Should be solid after getting a few games in but not sure I want to risk laying 17, still debating.

In terms of dogs, I may break my own rule right out of the gate and take Buffalo, as I’m not sold on Minny’s QB, and Buffalo may just have the athleticism to keep it within 18, so leaning more that way but not sold yet.

Still like Indiana, and will most likely lock it in if I see it start to move against me.

Starting to like the over at BoA as I’m not sure either team will be able to make consistent stops
 
carolinablue said:
Thanks WP…The way my brain works, I have no idea about playoffs or national championship contenders at this point, as there are tons of guys way better than me when it comes to the season long stuff like that.

Right now just working on narrowing down the Week 0/1 plays as like I say every year, I am the tortoise, as slow and steady wins the race, so all plays to win 1 unit, no chasing, no forcing, just grinding out boring, consistent profit week in and week out!
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The 1 unit plays on everything is a great way to do this. I’ll be looking to do the same.
 
slim5150 said:
Any opinion on hawaii vs the cardinal?
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I’m pretty sure I probably played fewer than 10 “western” games all season last year as unfortunately my days of pulling noon-3am capped off with watching Hawaii action on the laptop with a radio feed are long gone, so I tend to stay away from anything on that side of the country as I don’t watch enough to make informed decisions and I don’t like to force. With all that said, gun to my head, Stanford -2.5 or ML if 140 or less.
 
Added a few more potential huge favs to the review list...

Maryland vs FAU
Navy vs VMI
Wake vs Kennesaw State
Vandy vs Char So
Purdue vs Ball State
 
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carolinablue said:
Yeah I used to enjoy watching at 6:05pm like clockwork...Was a huge fan of all the territories back then, everything from Florida to UWF to Mid Atlantic to World Class to AWA to California Championship Wrestling and everything in between!

I am not ashamed to admit that I was like a doe eyed school girl sitting in the dressing room next to Wildfire drinkin beers together and then having him ask me to put his cell into my phone so me and my wife can hang with him and his when we are down in Myrtle Beach later this month since he is living there these days. Crazy stuff man!
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THIS IS AWESOME
 
I hope Rutgers has maintained a lot of their roster because they had a lot of lines as favorites last season.

Wisconsin
Illinois
UCLA
Washington

Beat Minny as a home dog
Played K St to a 3 point loss. This game was off my radar but I see why you like it.

🎯🎯🎯
 
Added Michigan State -16.5 146 at BM

Yeah, I know it a premium for the 16.5, but I don't expect it to be available a week from now as this line may hit 21 by kickoff, so don't mind paying 146 in the whole scheme of things, but definitely not for everyone, as it will hurt in the long run if I take too many L's at that price.
 
spottie2935 said:
I hope Rutgers has maintained a lot of their roster because they had a lot of lines as favorites last season.

Wisconsin
Illinois
UCLA
Washington

Beat Minny as a home dog
Played K St to a 3 point loss. This game was off my radar but I see why you like it.

🎯🎯🎯
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I always find it as a bonus if any of my card is actually on anything other than ESPN+, so glad I will be able to catch both the Rutgers game as a Thursday night special. Wife and I are going out on Friday August 29th so I will miss MSU (had to compromise Friday in order to get Week 1 on Saturday plus WWE Clash of Paris on Sunday)
 
carolinablue said:
I always find it as a bonus if any of my card is actually on anything other than ESPN+, so glad I will be able to catch both the Rutgers game as a Thursday night special. Wife and I are going out on Friday August 29th so I will miss MSU (had to compromise Friday in order to get Week 1 on Saturday plus WWE Clash of Paris on Sunday)
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My take is Week 1 is different than other weeks. Games everyday and A and B multiple weeks as well. The big boys a lot are not relevant for TV. If they have a relevant game it’s either late Saturday night or not played on Saturday. They find entertaining competitive matchups. We’ll see how this goes. I have all my plays ready to go some are locked in as full units, some I held back. I just feel it’s better to post the teams I like and be social about it.

Posting lines and records not that important. This sute is full of experienced winners anyways. They usually can tell by my selections if I am credible. I will keep an eye on your thread for sure

🏟️🏟️🏟️
 
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Home Dogs that are lined less than 7 points and these dogs in the current game exceed their team total are


[td]
ATS:​


[/td]
[td]
783-248-21 (75.9%)

[/td]​


I like the points just in case the team total isn’t exceeded I still have a chance using the line. Anyways I enjoy your on it and focused.
 
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Added

Thur 8/28 7pm UCF -15.5 117
Sat 8/30 2:30pm Indiana -22.5 117

Note that all of my early plays are ones I am locking in now because I believe the line closer to game day will be 2-3 points higher resulting in key numbers being crossed, so willing to roll the dice to secure what I perceive is current line value, with the understanding that things happen.
 
UCF: 2025 looks like better lines for them. 2024 they faced so challenging lines and poor results. One thing I love is their terrible finish to 2024. To your benefit, I think that is influencing this line. You have a keen eye on these lines.
 
carolinablue said:
I always find it as a bonus if any of my card is actually on anything other than ESPN+, so glad I will be able to catch both the Rutgers game as a Thursday night special. Wife and I are going out on Friday August 29th so I will miss MSU (had to compromise Friday in order to get Week 1 on Saturday plus WWE Clash of Paris on Sunday)
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You are the closest I’ve seen to replacing Bloodhound and I think you know how valued his insight was. Thank you man.
 
spottie2935 said:
UCF: 2025 looks like better lines for them. 2024 they faced so challenging lines and poor results. One thing I love is their terrible finish to 2024. To your benefit, I think that is influencing this line. You have a keen eye on these lines.
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I probably would play it up to 20.5 as I think the current line has decent value. Would not be surprised if it moved 2pts by mid August.
 
bookieassassin said:
BOL this year buddy .....👊

$ check out LowVig - same as BetOnline pretty much but -105/6 - simple format / no issues
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Thanks BA! Always great to see you swing by the thread. My main issue with BOL are the deposit fees as they lost me when they went to 12.5% on CC while BM charges 0% and with the US books it's an easy in and out on both ends via bank account. Will hit Low Vig this morning and see how they handle deposits as BOL used to be my #1 back in the day when they were far and away the best in terms of opens, but these days FD and BM are usually ahead of them in that area, so they lost that huge competitive advantage which was another selling point for me. Again, appreciate the reco, will head over there now and as always, keep killin it man as your look ahead threads are a must read week in and week out!
 
Added

8/30 3:30pm Temple ML 140 at FD

Waited a bit too long on this one so lost some value, but think it will cross 3 before it goes back down, so taking the ML 140 now while it is still available, as I expect ML to hit 160 or so by gametime. I actually think Temple wins by 7+ but no reason to let ego get in the way, so have no issue going with the ML at this price.
 
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