Carolinablue Week 0/1 CFB Plays

carolinablue said:
FD has alt line of Buffalo +21.5 166 now up but would like to see a little lighter premium for the line
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I play a lot of alt lines laying juice and also place multiple bets on one side or total at various prices. So I just made that part of my overall play in Buffalo.
 
s--k said:
I play a lot of alt lines laying juice and also place multiple bets on one side or total at various prices. So I just made that part of my overall play in Buffalo.
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I’m keeping an eye on both that one and the Fresno one as alt 17.5 might make the list for me but not sure yet. My thinking is money will come in on favs Saturday, so being patient with any 8/23 games I am considering
 
I appreciate your comment on the Buff-Min game and I tried to contribute some thoughts and angles. I have nothing to add nor any interest in the Fresno-KU game. As I like more of the veteran Buffalo team and staff with consistency vs Minn that lost some players and coaches. Do we know anything about the new Gopher QB? Maybe the Big Ten thread people will have thoughts.

So I take it, you are largely very number oriented, you know what could or should happen in the game, but only target certain spreads to play on?

I am more reason based, I like having reasons for what I think can or should happen and then the number matters less to a point other than just trying to get in on some of the best numbers at any given moment.
 
s--k said:
I appreciate your comment on the Buff-Min game and I tried to contribute some thoughts and angles. I have nothing to add nor any interest in the Fresno-KU game. As I like more of the veteran Buffalo team and staff with consistency vs Minn that lost some players and coaches. Do we know anything about the new Gopher QB? Maybe the Big Ten thread people will have thoughts.

So I take it, you are largely very number oriented, you know what could or should happen in the game, but only target certain spreads to play on?

I am more reason based, I like having reasons for what I think can or should happen and then the number matters less to a point other than just trying to get in on some of the best numbers at any given moment.
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Appreciate the conversation as I enjoy hearing about different approaches as there are so many different ways to do this and ultimately the right one is the one that makes the most profit for each individual.

I basically go through a solid number of games and jot down expected line and “strike zone numbers” in my notebook, so it’s easy for me to hit opens when I am around to catch em.

I typically stay away from west coast stuff as I don’t really watch it so not much familiarity with most of those teams.

Most of my strike numbers are gut feel from reading various stuff and watching what I can, more than anything as I don’t do power ratings but enjoy seeing stuff from other guys as I’m a numbers nerd.

Basically anything with variance of 5+ vs my “expected” line or favorable vs my “strike zone” is an auto play for me. Jumping early works for me in terms of line value but definitely not for everyone.

Love the comments and discussion man, keep it coming!
 
Card to Date

Week 1 Plays
8/28 4pm San Diego State -12.5 110 FD
8/28 6pm Rutgers -9.5 133 BM
8/28 7pm UCF -15.5 117 BM
8/28 7:30pm Okie State -21.5 115 FD

8/29 7pm Michigan State -16.5 146 BM

8/30
12pm Miss State -9.5 134 BM
2:30pm Indiana -22.5 117 BM
3:30pm Temple ML 140 FD
4pm Montana State/Oregon o54.5 115 FD
6pm Oklahoma -34.5 110 FD
7pm Vandy -35.5 110
10pm Washington State -9.5 115 FD

Week 2
12pm Illinois ML 125 (FD - submitted 7/10)
 
carolinablue said:
Appreciate the conversation as I enjoy hearing about different approaches as there are so many different ways to do this and ultimately the right one is the one that makes the most profit for each individual....
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One thing I know with you is the disciplined approach, you even stopped playing college one season because you accomplished a figure or a mark you wanted.

The money and profit is the means in which to measure the success, which I absolutely love, but I can say right now before a single game has kicked off, I am already eagerly looking forward to next offseason because of all the ways I want to improve and duplicate some of my prep I did this year. I'm using almost exclusively now data that I compile and format and while it is SO time consuming it enjoy it so much and it has become indespible to how I handicap. If you put me in a bar and I don't have my spreadsheets without access to some other data and ask me who I like and why, I probably can't tell you. But when I look over the outcomes of games and how they happened and why and the stats, that is where I get strengths and weaknesses of what a team is capable or not capable of. That is literally my brain and it takes me about all week to figure it out which is why FCS is so great for me becasue openers come out later. If openers started coming out on Sunday or Monday for FCS I will probably have to quit because I won't be ready to take advantage of openers and you have to play openers to have consistent success, at least that is what has worked for me the last 2 years since I went online books.

Except for a couple years in the early 2000s when I had some offshore accounts, I had always played with a local since 1995. It wasn't until I switched to almost exclusively FCS in 2023 that I went to betting online. So naturally a lot of things changed with that.

I often do a dollar cost average approach, not always, but usually. Partially because I just like placing bets on things I like. I place multiple bets at various lines at a number of outlets on one side or total. Even if the line is worse, I still bet a lot of games I already took at one number again at various numbers, as long as I still think the play has good chance of winning. Then I play 1Hs when available (which isn't always for FCS).

I think the best thing that I got into betting online is playing favorite MLs which I never did with the local, I never asked, but he would've said no. I mean all kind of clowns would be laying 900 to win 200 for easy wins without actually putting up the 900. I would do dog MLs, which, hey, I love upsets. Upsets are my favorite thing about sports and it is more art and nonsensical in trying to predict things that shouldn't happen and it is just fun when it happens. Nothing to me is more fun. But, I will be perfectly honest, the ML dog thread here, that was bad for me. I always played like 2 or 3 a week, but the hunt for them kind of took over and I would be talking myself into dogs that I shouldn't. Still love upsets and finding dogs that can win, I play a couple dog MLs, but now, I play so many favorite MLs! You win a really high percentage, like 7 or 8 out of 10, as long as you have a good idea where the upsets can or could happen, what favorites might be vulnerable and what dogs could be live, you stay away from those. It sound easier said than done, but for me atleast in the FCS, when you get to know the teams well enough you learn who almost certainly will win and who almost certainly won't and I have no problem laying 4:1, 5:1 on straight up winners. Playing favorite MLs is the best thing I have done to improve my game. I can be tentative laying points sometimes, because I've been burned, we've all been burned by the favorite that wins but doesn't cover for one reason or another. It gives me a comfort factor playing the favorite MLs and actually if I lose, I really don't get mad, I'm kind of like, wow, that other team played really well or the favorite really had a stinker of a game. And sometimes the favorite wins straight up and doesn't cover and I'm so happy to have had a piece on the ML bcause I was still able to win. And when it does lose, which isn't often, I am peace with it. I understand the risk. And I don't risk much anymore. Been there done that. I don't need to win four figures on a game anymore. I will risk 400 to win 50 or 400 to win a buck on whatever. Last year I looked, I laid 650 to win 50 on William & Mary vs NC A&T. NC A&T was not beating them, I mean if they did it would be a big hit on the day, but they weren't going to. But even if it did lose, I had so many other bets that day, I will would've come out ahead. This works for me and how the numbers I play on games fit together.

So playing favorite MLs has been a huge positive change in how I operate and it's only been the last 2 years. And I love high volume. I recorded every bet including live bets on a spread sheet for the first time last year (I used to handwrite them!). I had 35 bets on opening Thursday last year alone on 11 games. I really don't want to count a Saturday but I can say it will easily be 100. I love the volume. I love picking off lines on bets I already made if something got better or doing an alt line on something I feel good about. A ML, live, a 1H if I can get it. I did look at this one, once the playoffs started, I started playing more. USD-Montana State I had 33 bets. Went 20-12-1. I mean...maybe that is a problem? I don't think it is I love it. The largest bet was a buck and the smallest bet was 10, I was on both sides, favorite ML, live favorite ML, dog+, pregame Under, live Under. Pretty fun! I need the action. Sure I want to win and make money, but I don't like it to be just 1 or 2 plays and then I watch and see how the game goes, I want to be involved in the outcome of the game throughout. Now, I don't do that regular season because there are so many games to spend my time on. But I love the volume. I already have 8 bets on BYU vs Portland State and it's no big deal if it loses because I have 6 bets on Duke and all these teams, so many games, there are plenty to make up for any losses.

People ask, do you have a favorite play? Well, I'm going to have 30-40 any given Saturday and I really can't pick a favorite because most of them end up being kind of hte same amounts, just played in various styles.
 
Freshman QB or not, I’ve seen enough of PSU at home vs Tarleton to feel comfortable laying the 34.5 with BYU. I expect this line to cross 35 so will lock it in now.

8pm BYU -34.5 118 FD
 
BYU now up to 37.5 as expected

Added
SMU game over 60.5 110 FD
UNLV -9.5 122 BM

Solid value on UNLV after performance last night as this was 13.5 before that game
 
Added
7pm Delaware State +31.5 115 FD

Lost a point of value debating myself on this one given that I rarely play dogs, but this many points too much to pass up with this feisty DSU team and with Delaware having Colorado on deck. As long as they don't lose by exactly 32 (line was 32.5 and I missed it) I will be at peace either way.
 
Definitely swung and missed on both BGSU and Okie State as both have moved 4pts against my line wow…Overall most of the early plays secured 1-4pts of line value with a few getting much more like BYU at 9pts of value and SDSU with 6pts of value last o checked. Not for the faint of heart like I have mentioned many times!
 
Navy just moved up 2 from 38.5 to 40.5. Was looking for 34.5 there so didn’t want to force it but I think they probably cover up to 41. This is backdoor 45-7 or 42-7 type final is entirely possible so no value at the original 38.5 in my view.
 
Updated card...

Week 1 Plays

8/28
6pm Rutgers -9.5 133 BM
6:30pm BGSU -16.5 110 FD
7pm UCF -15.5 117 BM
7pm Delaware State +31.5 115 FD
7:30pm Okie State -21.5 115 FD
7:30pm Missouri -36.5 110 FD
10pm San Diego State -12.5 110 FD

8/29
7pm Michigan State -16.5 146 BM
7pm Wake -13.5 162 FD
9:30pm UNLV -9.5 122 BM

8/30
12pm Miss State -9.5 134 BM
12pm Pittsburgh -34.5 115 FD
2pm West Virginia -35.5 110 FD
2pm UConn -25.5 110 FD
2:30pm Indiana -22.5 117 BM
3:30pm Temple ML 140 FD
4pm Montana State/Oregon o54.5 115 FD
6pm Oklahoma -34.5 110 FD
7pm South Alabama -28.5 110 FD
7pm Vandy -35.5 110 FD
8pm BYU -34.5 118 FD
9pm SMU/E Tex A&M o60.5 110 FD
10pm Washington State -9.5 115 FD

Week 2
12pm Illinois ML 125 (FD - submitted 7/10)
 
G-Man said:
If BB developes a defense, this game should be win #1 for NC.
BOL thos season CaroBlue!
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A lot of transition so I’m mainly looking for smart, disciplined, hard nosed football with no head scratching decisions or losses. Next year is when I will probably snag season tickets as that will hopefully see things move forward.
 
Watched most of the Delaware State game and they have a couple playmakers on offense, we’re pretty feisty in terms of not rolling over when it looked like they were out of it, but man they are undisciplined and committed more than a few untimely penalties that killed momentum and/or big gains. Their defense is a work in progress and might get torched by any offense with a pulse.
 
BGSU was the first “early line win” of the year as it closed around 20-21.5 so the early birds who got the 16.5 (like me) were able to cash on that one.

Alternatively, Okie State started around 22.5 (I got 21.5) and dropped as low as 17.5 before closing closer to 4 TDs, so if you timed that one right (I didn’t), you would have cashed on the 17.5-19.5 that was out there at points.

Two early examples of how getting the “right line” matters
 
Speaking of Oklahoma State…they could/should have scored 40+, but just couldn’t seem to get a flow going with the running game.

Watched most of it and UTM isn’t very good so hoping to get some value playing against them moving forward, based on the perception that they “hung tough”, as in my view it wasn’t anything UTM did but what Okie State didn’t do that kept this from being a lesser version of Mizzou vs CAU (that was a fun one for me to watch as everything was clicking early and often for Mizzou).
 
Youngstown second half was painful to watch as it’s like they forgot how to play offense after halftime and as a result, so did the cover in that one. Mercyhurst was scrappy and competitive throughout but Youngstown was far superior on offense but decided to basically sleepwalk their way through the second half vs continuing to exert their dominance. Hard to watch at times…
 
Michigan State equals another early line victory as paying the extra juice to get the line from 17.5 to 16.5 paid off with the 23-6 victory, but it shouldn’t have been that close…
 
Campbell as a dog and Monmouth total sailing over both played out pretty much as expected, although I didn’t see that Monmouth unbalanced contribution by halves coming, but no complaints here…
 
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