Carolinablue Bowl Plays

carolinablue

College Football Guru
Tough finish to the regular season as I lost a ton, but it's funny how real life events can change perspective on things.

Regular Season 84-79 -7.145 Units

For the sake of transparency, I have been dealing with some beyond intense personal stuff recently which has been consuming my life in more ways than one, so sorry for not being around much literally and mentally the last few weeks of the season as I forced a lot of plays to try to take my mind off of what was going on.

Starting to move forward now so hoping to be a more frequent and productive contributor across the board moving forward.
 
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These first 3 are all Risking 0.55 to Win 0.50 Units as I want to ease my way back in to see if I am seeing things clearly on some of these Week 1 bowl games.

Football - 202 New Mexico -7 -110 for Game
Football - 207 Arkansas State/Central Florida under 49 -110 for Game
Football - 211 Southern Mississippi/Louisiana Lafayette under 58 -110 for Game



Note: I posted my Alabama play back on 12/4 in the cbb forum when I saw it open under 2 TDs (I know the line is -16 now)
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 272 Alabama -13½ -115 for GAME- Risking 2.2 to Win 2.0 Units
 
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Football - 202 New Mexico -7 -110 for Game

First off, was great to hear that Lobos RB Tyrone Owens has been confirmed to be ready to play in this one as he played a big part in New Mexico's #1 rushing attack this season. New Mexico has won 6 of their last 7 and also gets the luxury of getting this game at home against UTSA which will be playing in it's first ever bowl game after finishing the season strong in order to get the bid. I know the Lobos haven't had much success in bowls over the years, losing 6 of their last 7, but I do like Bob Davie as an experienced coach who will have his guys approaching this one in a workmanlike fashion against UTSA which could be a little wide-eyed out of the gate after celebrating just making their first ever bowl once the pairings were announced. I also like the conference matchup here, as Conference USA was the lowest ranked of all the FBS conferences and also had the lowest SOS as well.

As far as the data goes, New Mexico ranks in the Top 15 in terms of both points per play (#12) and yards per play (#10), while the defense for UTSA ranks #74 and #68 respectively in these two categories. I also like the fact that New Mexico is in the Top 25 (#24) in terms of 3rd down conversion percentage vs a UTSA defense that ranks #75 in this area, as this will not only lead to more time spent on the field by the UTSA defense, but also more body blows from the UNM running game as well as just the mental letdown that comes when you allow a team to consistently convert on 3rd down to leave your defense on the field. Another stat I like is that UTSA is in the bottom 5 of all FBS teams in terms of percentage of times the QB gets sacked, while UNM is Top 30 in terms of getting to the QB. This should lead to UTSA forcing at times during the game due to being behind the chains, and it should also result is solid field position for the Lobos and their dominant rushing attack.
 
There are a few things I look at pretty closely when deciding to play an under in a bowl game.

Poor red zone execution leading to more 3's than 7's
Poor 3rd down conversion percentage leading to more punts
Poor yards per play
Poor points per play
High percentage of rush attempts per game, but low yards per rush
Low yards per pass, leading to fewer big plays and more dink and dunk type plays eating up clock
High number of penalties on both teams leading to drive killers
Solid defenses on both teams, especially against the other team's strengths
Injuries to players that contributed during season but will potentially be out or less than 100% in bowl game
 
Football - 207 Arkansas State/Central Florida under 49 -110 for Game

UCF Yards/Play #115 vs ASU defense yds per play #27
UCF 3rd down conversion % #123 vs ASU 3rd down defense #34
UCF Yards/Pass #111 vs ASU defense yds per pass #45
UCF Points/Play #62 vs ASU defense pts per play #14

ASU RZ Scoring % #94 vs UCF RZ Defense #3
ASU Points/Play #70 vs UCF defense points per play #29
ASU Yards/Pass #53 vs UCF defense yds per pass #12
 
Football - 211 Southern Mississippi/Louisiana Lafayette under 58 -110 for Game

ULL 3rd down conversion % #78 vs USM 3rd down defense #2
USM 3rd down conversion % #72 vs USM 3rd down defense #26
ULL penalties/play #102, USM penalties/play #111
ULL penalties/game #102, USM penalties/game #107
USM yds/rush #94 vs ULL defense yds/rush #13 - USM will potentially become more one dimensional than they would like
ULL RB Darius Hoggins should play but may be less than 100% coming off the ankle injury
ULL RB Raymond Calais is confirmed out
 
Football - 225 Ohio/Troy under 49 -110 for Game

Troy 3rd down conversion % #105 vs Ohio 3rd down defense #42
Ohio 3rd down conversion % #97 vs Troy 3rd down defense #24
Troy yds/rush #80 vs Ohio rush defense #2 - Troy will potentially become more one dimensional than they would like
Ohio yds/rush #70 vs Troy rush defense #18 - Ohio will potentially become more one dimensional than they would like
Ohio red zone scoring % #85 vs Troy red zone defense #18
 
Football - 215 Memphis/Western Kentucky over 77½ -110 for Game

Not overly concerned about Brohm not coaching this one as what is more important to me is how poorly both teams defend the pass (WKU #118, Memphis #90), how efficient both teams are in terms of points per play (WKU #3, Memphis #16) and also that Memphis QB Riley Ferguson has been confirmed to play as him being out would have given me second thoughts on the over in this one. This should be one of the most exciting bowl games to watch and I am looking forward to seeing a potential total in the 90's here.
 
Wishing you the best this Bowl season CB, but more importantly in life. Early slate looks good. Takes balls as big as church bells to play unders these days.
 
Good luck CB. Seems like a lot of people are struggling especially this time of year. I heard Ron Darling say recently in an interview on WFAN that the older we get the more demons we have. It's a crazy world
 
Good article from the Freep. Always interesting to explore different angles like this...

Bowl preparation has been a lot different for Cooper Rush and the other seniors on the Central Michigan team this time.

The Chippewas had almost all of December to prepare for the Bahamas Bowl in 2014 and the Quick Lane Bowl in 2015. The same goes for the fifth-year seniors who were a part of the Little Caesars Pizza Bowl team in 2012.

But this year, CMU (6-6) will play almost two weeks earlier when it takes on Tulsa (9-3) in the Miami Beach Bowl on Monday at Marlins Park (2:30 p.m., ESPN).

“We’re (preparing) a little bit earlier than we have in the past,” said Rush, CMU’s quarterback, during a bowl game news conference Dec. 4. “With the exams, it’ll be a little bit different. You get to spend Christmas at home. I haven’t been able to do that in a few years.”

The Chippewas’ three previous appearances in bowl games have taken place Dec. 24 or later, and that has cost players time with their families during the holidays.

But this time, CMU did a bulk of its game-plan installation during final exams week. The Chippewas also weren’t able to fully utilize their 15 practices the NCAA grants bowl teams because there weren’t enough dates on the calendar.

►Related: How to watch CMU vs. Tulsa in Miami Beach Bowl

“You got a lot of things going on, but your bowl preparation is what is,” coach John Bonamego said. “(Less) time doesn’t necessarily mean you can do more things. You got to hone in on the things you do well.

“When you get an earlier jump on the process (when playing in late December and early January bowl games), I think it affords you the time to teach, review and reteach.”

So the Chippewas will take on the Golden Hurricane with fewer practices than normal and immediately after final exams.

But CMU couldn’t be more excited for the opportunity.

The Chippewas enter the postseason after an up-and-down year. They started 3-0 but lost four of their last five games and dropped matchups with Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan.

The Broncos, who finished the regular season ranked No. 15 in the College Football Playoff and earned a trip to play in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl against Wisconson, blew out the Chippewas, 49-10, during a nationally televised game Oct. 1 at Kelly/Shorts Stadium.

What’s more, they dropped a game to EMU, 26-20, on Nov. 22 after the Eagles scored on a game-winning TD pass with under a minute left.

The end of the regular season all but erased the goodwill the Chippewas built with their fanbase after starting the year 3-0.

They blew out Presbyterian and UNLV in Weeks 1 and 3, and then upset then-No. 22 ranked Oklahoma State, 30-27, on Sept. 10 with a Hail Mary and lateral on an untimed down on the game’s final play.

Winning the Miami Beach Bowl would send out their seniors with their first bowl victory. They lost the 2014 Bahamas Bowl to Western Kentucky, 49-48, and the 2015 Quick Lane Bowl to Minnesota, 21-14.

“We’ve got to win,” Rush said. “Our seniors have to go out with a win, and everyone else has to have a good taste in their mouth coming into the off-season next year. We want to leave with a win, get a bowl ring and get to hold a trophy, which is something we haven’t been able to do. That’s definitely on our mind.”

Stopping Tulsa is key.

Running back James Flanders enters ninth in rushing in the Football Bowl Subdivision. He has carried 241 times for 1,527 yards and 17 TDs and averaged 6.3 yards per rush. Quarterback Dane Evans threw for 3,044 yards and 27 TDs.
 
Monday 12/19 action...

Tulsa -12.5 to Win 0.6 Units

Tulsa -12.5 as I just think that the rushing game of Tulsa is going to give CMU headaches all day as CMU struggles against the run and that will lead to them being susceptible to the play action pass as the game wears on. Rush is a solid QB for CMU and I expect him to rack up some yards against the porous Tulsa pass defense but the body blows from the running game of Tulsa coupled with the fact that CMU just doesn't score enough to be able to keep up in a back and forth game, makes me feel pretty good laying the -12.5 as Tulsa should win this one handily.
 
Thursday 12/22 Action...

CSU vs IDAHO OVER 64 to Win 0.6 Units

Went back and forth in this one regarding whether to play Idaho as the DD dog or just go with the over and in the end I just don't trust the Idaho defense enough as I could easily see them giving up 45 or more to the Rams, so figured the over is the smarter play here as this could easily be a 45-31 type of game. Just don't see Idaho being able to stop CSU, but Idaho will battle til the end and has the ability to put some points on the board against the CSU defense. Even when CSU blows out teams and puts up 40 or more, they still seem to find a way to give up at least 28 points or more, so rather than having to worry about the Vandals keeping up, I will just go with the over and root for the Rams to put up the 64 by themselves.
 
Wishing you the best this Bowl season CB, but more importantly in life. Early slate looks good. Takes balls as big as church bells to play unders these days.

Yeah I hate playing unders but just going to trust my numbers and hit that confirm button and not talk myself out of plays if my numbers say I should make it. The 2 games last night I didn't even see, I just saw the score updates around the 3rd quarter and I guess I should feel lucky that both came in under but really didn't see a minute of either one.

I did watch the NM game while at the gym and as soon as NM scored to make it 23-13, I thought to myself, there is too much time left and even though UTSA offense couldn't do anything all game, I just knew that NM was gonna go to a prevent defense and give up a score to kill my cover as they just wanted to get that bowl win and almost blew it in the process by giving up that 80 yd drive in less than 2 mins. Could see it coming from a mile away though but didn't make it any less frustrating.
 
Tuesday 12/21 and Friday 12/23 Plays

Football - 215 Memphis/Western Kentucky over 77½ -110 for Game - To Win 0.8 Units
Football - 225 Ohio/Troy under 49 -110 for Game - To Win 0.66 Units
 
CFB Bowl Games YTD 2-1 +0.45 Units

Summary of 12/19-12/23 Plays

Monday 12/19
Football - 214 Tulsa -12½ -125 buying -½ for Game - To Win 0.8 Units

Tulsa -12.5 as I just think that the rushing game of Tulsa is going to give CMU headaches all day as CMU struggles against the run and that will lead to them being susceptible to the play action pass as the game wears on. Rush is a solid QB for CMU and I expect him to rack up some yards against the porous Tulsa pass defense but the body blows from the running game of Tulsa coupled with the fact that CMU just doesn't score enough to be able to keep up in a back and forth game, makes me feel pretty good laying the -12.5 as Tulsa should win this one handily.

Tuesday 12/20
Football - 215 Memphis/Western Kentucky over 77½ -110 for Game - To Win 0.8 Units

Not overly concerned about Brohm not coaching this one as what is more important to me is how poorly both teams defend the pass (WKU #118, Memphis #90), how efficient both teams are in terms of points per play (WKU #3, Memphis #16) and also that Memphis QB Riley Ferguson has been confirmed to play as him being out would have given me second thoughts on the over in this one. This should be one of the most exciting bowl games to watch and I am looking forward to seeing a potential total in the 90's here.

Thursday 12/22
Football - 219 Colorado State/Idaho over 64 -125 buying ½ for Game - To Win 0.8 Units

Went back and forth in this one regarding whether to play Idaho as the DD dog or just go with the over and in the end I just don't trust the Idaho defense enough as I could easily see them giving up 45 or more to the Rams, so figured the over is the smarter play here as this could easily be a 45-31 type of game. Just don't see Idaho being able to stop CSU, but Idaho will battle til the end and has the ability to put some points on the board against the CSU defense. Even when CSU blows out teams and puts up 40 or more, they still seem to find a way to give up at least 28 points or more, so rather than having to worry about the Vandals keeping up, I will just go with the over and root for the Rams to put up the 64 by themselves.

Friday 12/23
Football - 225 Ohio/Troy under 49 -110 for Game - To Win 0.66 Units
Football - 222 Old Dominion -3 -125 buying -1 for Game


Troy 3rd down conversion % #105 vs Ohio 3rd down defense #42
Ohio 3rd down conversion % #97 vs Troy 3rd down defense #24
Troy yds/rush #80 vs Ohio rush defense #2 - Troy will potentially become more one dimensional than they would like
Ohio yds/rush #70 vs Troy rush defense #18 - Ohio will potentially become more one dimensional than they would like
Ohio red zone scoring % #85 vs Troy red zone defense #18

Tuesday 12/27
Football - 242 Boise State -6½ -125 buying -1 for Game

If Boise is able to get lead early, I expect Baylor to roll over and go to sleep like Al Bundy would do whenever he was in bed with Peg, or for you true old schoolers...what Stanley Roper would do whenever he was in bed with Helen.


All games were basically upped so they are all to win 0.9 units. Still climbing my way out of the significant hole I dug myself in my initial few weeks of cbb plays, so will keep playing a bit with the units until I feel like I am back in my stride.
 
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Blue: Great start. Wish I had paid attention sooner. Whatever has you going through troubles - all the best...generally they pass sooner than you think. All the best
 
Just added...
Football - 222 Old Dominion -3 -125 buying -1 for Game
Football - 242 Boise State -6½ -125 buying -1 for Game
 
So close to pulling the trigger on BYU TT O33 but haven't done it yet. Anyone have any thoughts to the contrary as I don't see how the Cougars don't hit at least 41 in this one even with the QB situation. Thoughts?
 
I'm having a hard time believing so many people I've spoken to love Wyoming. BYU is better on both sides of the LOS. Their offense is 5th quickest in the country in plays run per 40secs. Wyoming offense is 125th vs a formidable defense. Wyomings defense is terrible giving up 60+ in a loss to UNLV who sucks. Wyoming lost their conference championship and 3 of the last 4. Are they even motivated to play here while BYU is just relentless in attacking regardless of what the score is. I don't see this game being close to be honest.
Im looking more into the QB change but I don't think it'll change my opinion.
 
I'm having a hard time believing so many people I've spoken to love Wyoming. BYU is better on both sides of the LOS. Their offense is 5th quickest in the country in plays run per 40secs. Wyoming offense is 125th vs a formidable defense. Wyomings defense is terrible giving up 60+ in a loss to UNLV who sucks. Wyoming lost their conference championship and 3 of the last 4. Are they even motivated to play here while BYU is just relentless in attacking regardless of what the score is. I don't see this game being close to be honest.
Im looking more into the QB change but I don't think it'll change my opinion.

Sometimes the best plays are the ones not made like my BYU over I was considering haha
 
6-3 so far this bowl season...


All plays below to win 1 unit

Wednesday 12/28
Football - 249 Kansas State/Texas A&M under 28 -110 for 1st Half
Football - 247 Indiana team total over 24 -110 for Game


Thursday 12/29
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 256 Oklahoma State/Colorado over 63 -120 buying ½ for GAME

Friday 12/30
Football - 257 TCU pk -115 for Game
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 266 Michigan -6½ -122 buying -½ for GAME


Saturday 12/31
Mobile - FOOTBALL - 272 Alabama -13½ -115 for GAME - 2 unit play posted 12/4

Can't believe season is just about over...why didn't I just put everything on Alabama as they are the only team that never fails to let me down.

New Years Day Plays

All at -130 at BOL

PSU +8
Auburn +3.5
Florida -2.5
 
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