bullsheet - Playoff Edition

bull

bull

Coattailing Cheerleader
Last Week 9-7-1; FCS 5-6 ; Crossovers 2-1-1 ; FBS 2-0

Season Totals:

All Games - 75-54-1 58.1%

FCS v FCS 51-43 54.2%

FCS v FBS 13-3-1 81.3%

FBS v FBS 11-8 57.9%

The FCS plays tailed off late in the season and I forget what the breakeven % is at -120 juice, but I suspect the 54.2% is pretty close one way or the other. Adding in the FBS-FCS crossovers, it was a profitable 13 weeks. I'll take 58% overall anytime;
now if I could just stay away form all those other FBS games. :crying:

Playoffs started last week in Divisions 2 and 3; they begin 11/30 in FCS.
I chop off at least 30% in my bet size at this point because there is not much external help in selection divisions 2 and 3, and the FCS lines offer little or nothing super-attractive.
With that bit of caution, here we go:

Starting with 5 games where I think the home team has the best chance of covering the number-
Fordham -6 v Sacred Heart - Fordham recovered from a late season slump when their star QB came back from injury. Definite diff in conf strengths here.

Coastal Carolina -4 1/2 v Bethune Cookman - Go with the higher ranked home team in a lo point ballgame.

So Carolina St -3 1/2 v Furman - Going with the steam here, and both rating gurus I reference have this one rated at a bigger number.

Jacksonville St -2 1/2 v Samford - Slight edge in conference strength favors the Gamecocks in this one. I was not thrilled with Samford's late 1 point win vs conf doormat last week.

Northern Arizona +4 1/2 v So Dakota St - Despite discrepancy in conf strength here ( which I don't really agree with) the Lumberjacks have big home field advantage.

5Dimes has those playoff games at -110, by the way. But the following Division 2 and 3 playoffs are at -120. Not much of any help from outside sources with these, but let's see if we can bring enough winners home to make a profit.

Lenoir Rhyne -7 1/2 v Carson-Newman

No Alabama +4 1/2 @ UNC Pembroke

Shepherd -3 1/2 v Winston-Salem

NW Missouri St +3 1/2 v Minnesota-Duluth

West Texas A & M +7 1/2 @ Ohio Dominican

Colorado St-Pueblo -10 1/2 v Grand Valley St

Hobart -2 v St John Fisher

Wesley -8 1/2 v Ithaca

Mary Hardin-Baylor -20 1/2 v Rowan

Linfield -21 1/2 v Franklin

Finally, a few more familiar names-

Ohio State -15 1/2 @ Michigan - Meyer likes to cover to keep the alums happy. He has lost the last two in a row, and I doubt if it happens a thid time in a game where among all else he wants to impress the voters.

UConn +2 1/2 v Rutgers- While the Scarlet Knights seem to have given up, the Huskies are still trying. Their come from behind win over Temple last week - a Temple team stronger than the one n Rutgers sqeaked by a few weeks ago,-should give U Conn a mental lift to end what was a winless season with two straight victories.

Alabama -10 1/2 @ Auburn - In my youth a wise old uncle repeatedly advised me to 'never bet against the Yankees.' In today's college football world, the Crimson Tide are like the 50's NY Yankees.

So California -3 1/2 v U C L A - At this point in the season, I would guess that Coach Orgeron would beat team Oregon.

I hope all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, and all have profiatable weekends. :shake:
 
My favorite thread of the year....FCS playoffs. I'm a little out of the loop this year but I think new. Hampshire rolls.
 
Hope u have those six TV's lined up today cause we 'Have some Great football' today and it looks like ur on most of the winners

I thank U for posting another BullSheet and its a most enjoyable thread

GL MrBull
 
Hey bull. I really liked Jacksonville State when I saw the lines at the beginning of the week. When I saw you really like them I unloaded on them.

Thanks bull.
 
Last week was 9-9 , a losing slate

FCS Playoffs 3-2

Division 2 and 3 5-4

FBS - 1-3 : now 12-11 for the season

Lesson learned. I stink at high profile games. Lost on tOSU, USC, and 'bama.
Always pay attention if I post a high profile play and fade it.

Hi profile plays are obvious mostly, but include less obvious like tonite's MAC-showdown.

Happy with my U Conn pick last week; however, the Little League slate was ho-hum.

Here are the games I am playing this week:

U Conn v Memphis - - half at +11/2 and half at ML

Louisiana-Laf +3 @ South Alabama

Missouri -1 v Auburn

Michigan St +5 1/2 v tOSU and 3/4 unit
Michigan St ML v tOSU 1/4 unit

Utah State +2 1/2 @ Fresno

Little League Action:
New Hampshire +3 1/2 @ Maine
South Dakota St +6 @ Montana
Jacksonville St +7 @ McNeese
S E Louisiana -7 1/2 v Sam Houston St

Shepherd -7 v West Chester
Lenoir-Rhyne +6 v No Alabama
NW Missouri St -17v St Cloud
West Texas A & M +2 1/2 @ Grand Valley

Mount Union -15 1/2 v Wesley
North Central -4 1/2 @ Bethel
Mary Hardin-Baylor -10 v St John Fisher

Glad you cashed , OAKAS , and glad to have been of help
Wishing one and all a Profitable Pearl Harbor Day ( unless, of course, you are fading me.)
 
GL this week Bull, I am thinking about rolling with Jax St. again this week. Probably should have grabbed the 7.5 when I could.
 
Your thread is a must read every weekend. Appreciate it man! I think the Coastal/Montana game is an auto under w/ wind chill expected to be negative 14. I know Coastal games look like bball games sometimes but 73 looks awful high in these conditions. Those Myrtle Beach boys have no idea what they are in for and I would expect a lot of running in this one. GL Bull!
 
thanks guys - it almost seems like a day off today with so few games out there to analyze and bet.

Tim -- Yes, that hook would have been nice. I missed a few by playing late. NW Missouri and Mary Hardin-Baylor both could have been played lower.

Moot- Thanks for the compliment. Not normally a totals guy but you make a good case. Inasmuch as I don't have a side there, let's go for it.
 
GL Bull. What are your thoughts on SDSU/Eastern Wash? I was on NAU last weekend and SDSU ran all over them.
 
Monger said:
GL Bull. What are your thoughts on SDSU/Eastern Wash? I was on NAU last weekend and SDSU ran all over them.
Click to expand...

I think So Dakota St is a good choice here. From stronger conference and they shouldn't be affected by any coldish Northwest weather. Go for it.
 
bull said:
Last week was 9-9 , a losing slate

FCS Playoffs 3-2

Division 2 and 3 5-4

FBS - 1-3 : now 12-11 for the season

Lesson learned. I stink at high profile games. Lost on tOSU, USC, and 'bama.
Always pay attention if I post a high profile play and fade it.

Hi profile plays are obvious mostly, but include less obvious like tonite's MAC-showdown.

Happy with my U Conn pick last week; however, the Little League slate was ho-hum.

Here are the games I am playing this week:

U Conn v Memphis - - half at +11/2 and half at ML

Louisiana-Laf +3 @ South Alabama

Missouri -1 v Auburn

Michigan St +5 1/2 v tOSU and 3/4 unit
Michigan St ML v tOSU 1/4 unit

Utah State +2 1/2 @ Fresno

Little League Action:
New Hampshire +3 1/2 @ Maine
South Dakota St +6 @ Montana
Jacksonville St +7 @ McNeese
S E Louisiana -7 1/2 v Sam Houston St

Shepherd -7 v West Chester
Lenoir-Rhyne +6 v No Alabama
NW Missouri St -17v St Cloud
West Texas A & M +2 1/2 @ Grand Valley

Mount Union -15 1/2 v Wesley
North Central -4 1/2 @ Bethel
Mary Hardin-Baylor -10 v St John Fisher
Click to expand...

As Always, BOL on them all MrBull
 
As the season winds down I seem to be slowing down.

7-9 last week 98-81-1 for the season

2-2 FCS playoffs 5-4

3-4 Div 2 & 3 8-8

2-3 FBS 14-14

Hard to see anything I really like on Army-Navy day.
Games I am playing are - tonite

Towson +17 1/2 @ Eastern Illinois - Strictly a matter of liking all these points. My records don't go back far enough to see when, if ever, a CAA team has lost a playoff game to anyone from another conference by anywhere close to this number. Will deal with tomorrow's games tomorrow - if at all.

GL this week-end
 
I went back 10 years & it appears that CAA teams have lost 3 playoff games by more than 17 points over that time frame. In 2009 New hampshire lost by 39 to fellow CAA team Villanova, in 2007 Richmond lost by 20 to Appalachian State & New Hampshire lost to Montana by 30 in 2004. I know E.Illinois is tough, but I also like Towson to hang fairly close. Supposed to be cold with flurries, but not that windy so I'm leaning over as well. I really like New Hampshire +8.5 against SE Louisiana & E. Wash -8.5 at home against Jacksonville St. Also some really strange line movement on the D-3 games. Mt. Union opened at +7 against North Central on 5dimes Sunday, went to pk on Monday & now sits at -2.5. Either the books screwed up majorly on the opener or the public jumped on the name team who's been in 8 straight title games & 15 of the last 17. MH Baylor opened at -7.5 & now sits at +3. Looks like the name team Wisc-Whitewater got hit big there too. I'm looking at parlaying North Central & MH Baylor tomorrow. Any thoughts on those games? GL.[TABLE="class: forum, width: 799"]
<tbody>[TR="class: even, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]
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dg84 - Thanks for the correction. You are absolutely right on all 3. :cheers:

Despite my boo boo, I'll stick with Towson tonite. No disrespect for EIU, but the competition gets tighter as we hit the QFs and that is a lot of points.

I too like New Hampshire tomorrow. No real lean on E W and Jack yet. .
I'll wait until we see how EIU does tonite b4 deciding.

Thanks for the info on the line moves in Div 2 and 3.
I have not been following.
I assume your parlay is ML and I think that is quite reasonable.
Mt Union have had their way with almost everybody until this year's playoffs and No Central looks strong to me. And - BIG Mary H-B fan here, although I have no connection with the school whatsoever.

Glad you came into this thread.

Best of luck whatever you do. :shake:
 
Thanks for continuing to post these writeups Bull. I rode along with Towson for some beer money. I never have time to give these games the attention they deserve. This stuff is very much appreciated. Best of luck the rest of the way..
 
bull said:
dg84 - Thanks for the correction. You are absolutely right on all 3. :cheers:

Despite my boo boo, I'll stick with Towson tonite. No disrespect for EIU, but the competition gets tighter as we hit the QFs and that is a lot of points.

I too like New Hampshire tomorrow. No real lean on E W and Jack yet. .
I'll wait until we see how EIU does tonite b4 deciding.

Thanks for the info on the line moves in Div 2 and 3.
I have not been following.
I assume your parlay is ML and I think that is quite reasonable.
Mt Union have had their way with almost everybody until this year's playoffs and No Central looks strong to me. And - BIG Mary H-B fan here, although I have no connection with the school whatsoever.

Glad you came into this thread.

Best of luck whatever you do. :shake:
Click to expand...


Towson looking good after a rough start. I don't want to jinx it so I won't say nice call yet. lol. Yeah, definitely thinking ML on that parlay. Right now both MH Baylor & NCentral are at +110 so $100 would pay about $340. Have read your threads for a few months since I found this site, but I just registered today & finally posted. This site seems like a good place with no crap being dished out.......just everyone trying to help each other. There aren't many forums out there like this. GL to you as well. :shake:
 
GL bull. Nice hit on Towson. I'm on tha bison today, hopefully we see that matchup tha same.
 
tru said:
GL bull. Nice hit on Towson. I'm on tha bison today, hopefully we see that matchup tha same.
Click to expand...

tru thanks for the post - I haven't decided what bet to make, if any, today, but I think bison is right side.
 
dg84 - Glad you joined up. This site is for mature gamblers - all good guys from what I can tell.
GL today.
 
scdoggy said:
Thanks for continuing to post these writeups Bull. I rode along with Towson for some beer money. I never have time to give these games the attention they deserve. This stuff is very much appreciated. Best of luck the rest of the way..
Click to expand...

Always glad to share a few words with you, Doggy.
GL today. :cheers:
 
inspek
bones

glad you cashed. Got a little nervous when they fumbled inside 5 yard line just b4 half - missed FG didn't really hurt that much but then the fumble on second half kick-off had mew worried.
all's well that ends well.
 
final adds to this weekend's slate

Eastern Wash -7 1/2 v Jacksonville St - been leaning this way, and when Towson handled Eastern Illinois( Jack's State conf champ who beat them 14-52 ) and with NDSU's first half impressive showing, it looks like the teams that have been there, done that are going again. Smelling a EWU-NDSU in the final.

New Hampshire +8 @ S E Louisiana - I have to like the way UNH has been playing since mid-season with their backs to the wall. I have had the benefitted of seeing them about 3 times, including an ass-whipping at Towson. Have not seen S E Louisiana and admit knowing nothing about them except they are good. And I lost on them when they didn't cover a week ago.

That's it till next week-end.
As usual, good luck to all except my faders.
 
Not sure if you caught any of it, but man North Central/Mount was a great game. 41-40 Mount wins it. GL bull.
 
Agree with the EWU call today as well as on the likely EWU-NDSU final matchup. Good luck today.
 
On both myself. Can't believe the way I lost that North Central game. QB had only thrown 1 Int all year & throws a pic 6. Not to mention they missed 3 extra points & then couldn't convert two 2 pt conversions after they realized their kicker was terrible. GL with the rest of the games!
 
Last Week was kind to me - 3-0 and I had a small unposted play on Mary-Hardin Baylor , getting 2 1/2 and losing by one.
With the three wins I went over the 100 win mark for the season 101-81-1

FCS playoffs 8-4

No plays on Division 2 amd 3, remain 8-8
No plays on FBS finishes at 14-14

I have seen enough of No Dakota St to believe that nobody is going to beat them. UNH has some impressive wins to reach this point. I have seen several of their games. Their 4 losses are to Central Mich by 3 points in a game they should have won, to Lehigh by 7, to Towson by 16, and William & Mary by 17. They were no match for Towson; I didn't see the other losses. I don't think they can beat NDSU and I also don't like to give big points. For those who must play this game, I would say try a total or go with the two time champs.

Mt Union is the defending champ in tonite's game and catches 6 points. I have a friend who follows these schools more closely than I do. He played Mt Union. Makes it a small play for me.

Mt Union +6 v Wisconson Whitewater

I hven't a clue in the NW Missouri game- Lenoir Rhyne game. No bet for me. I much prefer to receive points than to lay them . . .

Towson +4 @ Eastern Washington - Impresssive showing last week against Garoppolo & co. They face another star QB this week in Vernon Adams. I think Towson running game gives them a decent shot at a W . Terrence West gets all the glory at RB, but his offensive line deserves a lot of the credit. Second string tailback, # 27, also scored and gained 80 yards last week. He's prone to fumble, though, so watch for that. In a ballgame that looks like it might go down to the wire, I'm happy with a 4 point cushion.

GL to all. I doubt if I will still be around and interested after the deluge of games at New Years leaves me worn out year after year. Bet against NDSU at your peril in the FCS championship..
 
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