Breeders Cup 2022

CPA-hole

CPA-hole

Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Feel free to post any thoughts, questions here. Starts Friday with the 2 year Olds and goes through Saturday concluded with BC Classic featuring the brilliant, Flightline.

Lots of great cappers on here that will be posting their plays.

@BringInTheLefty
@ProV1Colt
@Gandolf
@KJ
@HUNT

Sorry if I left anyone out.

I have downloaded Drf pps for both days. Shoot me your e-mail if you'd like a copy and I'll be happy to oblige.
 
I'll be against The Platinum Queen in the Juvy Turf Sprint. I like the Americans better at the sprint distance for 2yos.

Wesley Ward has won this race the last 3 years. Love Reigns is his hope this year. I think I like her and Speed Boat Beach. I usually don't like the Cali turf horses but it's Baffert.

I probably like Persian Force and Mischief Magic best of the Euros.

Private Creed is interesting but he'll be 1/2 of his 12-1 morning line.
 
I've tried to beat Golden Pal the last two times with no success. Don't see anything in the Turf Sprint to really hook him early. But I think his stablemate Campanelle is live at 8-1 and probably his main threat.
 
I wish a couple more of the fillies in the filly and mare sprint would've went in the 6f sprint vs the males. There's no real threat in there to challenge Jackie's Warrior.

The filly and mare sprint looks like a total pace meltdown. I will be using Obligatory and Chain of Love from Japan is very intriguing.
 
Just kind of bouncing around. Some of these races are giving me a headache. The juvenile fillies looks like a pretty weak group.
 
aplous said:
Friday's Juvy card looks wild. I got killed last year on Friday trying verticals. Probably just stick to WPS and some EX on Friday.
Click to expand...
Only looked at the first two so far and yeah it looks like 4 or 5 deep in both. Tough way to start a Pick 5 with three more 2YO races to run. Maybe Cave Rock is a single in Juvenile, Baffert had his break and now he's back for some payback IMO.
 
Friday thoughts - Chad Brown has one in each juvy race today, so watch out for him. Baffert is back and has two of the three best juveniles, but also has a sneaky entry in the turf sprint. Pletcher has interesting choices in both dirt races but also an under the radar horse in the juvy turf. Euros look very classy in all the turf races, will be tough to leave out.

Turf Sprint - Theme of the Euros in this race is most have quite a bit more experience than the US entries.
#1 comes off a grade 3 win at Longchamps but looks a step behind the other imports.
#2 has Ward, with a 2YO, at Keeneland. Nuff said, must use.
#3 is 2/3 at distance but the figs are slow. Might clunk up for 3rd or 4th.
#4 is the lightest raced Euro and beat #2 at Ascot this summer. Her last effort wasn't great but at 15/1 I'm using.
#5 finished 4th behind Persian Force in her last but Appleby usually ships with good intentions. Gets a half furlong distance break. Will be coming late if she can get a good trip.
#6 should be well positioned but has lost her last 3 starts despite some small fields. Beat #5 at Newmarket.
#7 is Chad's filly on a turnback, beat #3 at Saratoga in August, needs to be a little quicker here.
#8 is the one filly showing consistent improvement in figures, won a slow Grade 3 at 47/1 last time. Looks outclassed.
#9 Had an eyepopping stakes win in July that would be competitive here, then got nipped by #3 at Kentucky Downs at 6.5 furlongs, so her fitness should be good here.
#10 Is an unbeaten Iowa bred making her first run on grass. She's fast on dirt but will that transfer to the grass? If you like unlikely winners this is your horse.
#11 Baffert brings this speedster in, she set a track record in her debut at DelMar and then switched to grass and won with a slower effort. She'll get plenty of money but this just isn't Baffert's typical cup of tea, so I'll try to beat her. Last one off the ticket.
#12 Last of the Euros has raced steadily since failing at the Queen Mary against #2 and #4. Switched jockeys and won a grade 1 sprint at Longchamp last month. The favorite here, probably shouldn't be. Was 66/1 at Ascot (and rightly so) but has 3 firsts and 2 seconds since, so you're buying experience and recent form.

A - 2, 4, 5, 9
B - 6, 7, 11, 12
 
Juvenile Fillies - I tend to like two turn experience in these types of races. These 8.5 furlong races use the short stretch at Keeneland, which means you want to be able to run near the front, closers need not apply.
#1 - first try at 2 turns, pretty slow, pass
#2 - first try at 2 turns, lost to Pletcher in the slop at Aqueduct, has speed but not experience
#3 - Grade 2 winner at two turns, training sharply, has tactical speed, at 8/1 I like the price
#4 - Off the pace, ran 5th at this distance at Keeneland last time, was closing but just too much left to do with a short stretch
#5 - Winner of a grade 1 at Keeneland at this distance, showed strong early speed in the win, must use
#6 - Improving filly won at a mile in a Delaware stake in the slop. Not coming out of class efforts and a few steps slow in the figs.
#7 - Cox and Rosario reunite, was a rallying 2nd to #5 last time, missing by just a nose. If she breaks better she should be right there again.
#8 - Improving horse from Gulfstream moves into the Pletcher barn which could be just the boost needed. At 12/1 I need to include.
#9 - Assmussen filly comes over from Churchill, was caught in the stretch last time, will see faster horses up front today so I think she fades again.
#10 - The better Pletcher won the Frizette but it was one turn in the slop at Aqueduct. Top speed number in the race but it was at 6 furlongs. Favorite trying two turns for the first time is usually a play against, but it is Pletcher. Last one off the ticket.
#11 - Has lost to many in here last two races, a pair of 4th place finishes. Mott is great but it would be a surprise.
#12 - Passed #9 at the Churchill Grade 3 but still was only 2nd. Don't think much of that race.
#13 - Third place finisher in Frizette trailing #2 and #10 all the way around. Not using the other two, can't really see this one popping.
#14 - Chad's filly was also in the photo at Keeneland, but DQ'd to 4th. She finishes well, this could be her day.

A - 3, 5, 7, 8, 14
B - 10
 
Juvenile Fillies Turf - Euro class vs up and coming US fillies, but the Euros are coming out of 6 and 7 furlong races, so there's more ground to cover in this mile race.
#1 - An Irish bred, shipped over in the summer and has gone 3/3 at this distance in California. She's a closer so she'll need to get in position on the turn and close late. She'll save all the ground, and at 15/1 I'm using.
#2, #3 and #11 were the top three in the one turn Natalma, which graded out as one of the best 2YO turf races in North America, and it really wasn't that strong a race. I'll pass on all three.
#4, #5 and #6 all come out of events at Aqueduct and Saratoga, finishing ITM in all of them. The grade 2 Miss Grillo was on soft ground and blunted any late kicks. Hard to separate these three and their class rating suggests they're all behind the Euros. Chad's horse, #4 has shown the best finishing kick and would be the one to consider.
#7 - All the Euros drew middle and outside posts. This one has a 6f stake win followed by a 7f all-weather win. Gets US jockey Santana, which is probably a negative. The well-intentioned Euros usually draw Euro jocks.
#8 - Another Euro that's 0/3 at 6f and now tries the mile distance. Pedigree suggests she's a sprinter though, so she may just not be a stakes level horse. Pass.
#9 - Improving filly with a strong Grade 2 win at Keeneland, so while this is a step up she's got a built in edge. Has won two slow paced races, and the pace here is murky. Worth consideration.
#10 - The 4/1 favorite comes in with a strong resume against graded stakes fields at 6f and 7f. Dam side suggests she'll relish longer distance. Ryan Moore makes the trip. O'Brien is 0/6 stretching out horses and also 0/6 in the US this year. She finished 2nd in her last two, so she doesn't have to win. Another favorite trying something a little bit new. Last off the ticket.
#11 scratched, replaced by #15 who looks far outmatched.
#12 - Euro who's 2 for 2, and like #10 has the dam pedigree to assume 1 mile is no issue. The difference is she comes in at 10/1.
#13 - Turf stalwart Leparoux gets back on this filly after her 4th place run on dirt at Keeneland. She was right there with the top 3 that are headed to the Juvenile Fillies before getting bumped and steady about 1/16th out. She is sneaky here and could steal this on the front end.
#14 - Joseph O'Brien brings this one over from Ireland off a Grade 3 win at 7f. Tabs HOF Johnny V to ride, which is a better choice than #7's. O'Brien usually ships with intent and should be considered at 15/1.

A - 1, 9, 12, 13, 14
B - 4, 10
 
Juvenile - To me this one comes down to three horses and therefore is the one to go narrow on multi-race bets. Speed ratings suggest #3, #4 and #10 are the only contenders.

#3 Cave Rock is the 4/5 favorite for Baffert. 3/3 coming off a five length drubbing of #10 at Santa Anita. Has the fastest figs and has improved each race too. Baffert also has #10 who basically chased Cave Rock in 2nd place all the way around. He gets blinkers in an effort to keep up with Cave Rock. Baffert racing against Baffert upfront? Is there a chance they wear each other out? If then #4 Forte is the play. He won at this distance at Keeneland last time out, helped by a hot pace to rallying from 7th. To me you're either picking #3 to wire or #4 to run him down. Or you're doubling your ticket price. The short stretch should benefit the front runner here. WATCH RACE #1 TO SEE IF SPEED IS HOLDING (6, 8, 9 vs closing 2 and 4).

A1 - 3
A2 - 4
B - 10
 
Juvenile Turf - The Euros have a distinctive class edge here with Charlie Appleby leading the way, but there a couple of US horses worth noting.
#1 - Aidan O'Brien brings this Grade 3 winner over and Ryan Moore will be back on onboard. Winner of 3 straight, including two on firmer ground which is what we should have today.
#2 - Convincing winner of last 3 in California including two Grade 3, probably the most accomplished US horse in the field. Money Mike rides and it's the only mount today for the Breeders Cup winningest jockey. Lefty likes him too, so at 6/1 that's good enough for me.
#3 - Outclassed grandson of Uncle Mo meets winners for the first time. Pass.
#4 - Favorite ships in off a 1M Grade 3 win on firm turf at Newmarket. Appleby is 5/10 in US races this year and his jockey Johnny Buick is 4/5. Must use.
#5 - Had two good efforts at Saratoga before a poor run on soft turf at Aqueduct. That race was not good overall, which hurts the prospects for #13 as well.
#6 - KY guy Catalano enters the grade 2 Bourbon winner, another race that did not show well in the class ratings, but it was at Keeneland and this one is 2/2 on the home track. Maybe although 5/1 feels like an underlay.
#7 - While the winner of the Bourbon is 5/1 today, the 3rd place finisher checks in at 30/1. Another reason why #6 is an underlay.
#8 - Chad brings in a pretty good closer where this race does hint at some early pace. The horse ran well in the Grade 2 Pilgrim despite getting a rough trip and a tepid pace. Definitely has a shot if he can overcome the class disadvantage.
#9 - Graham Motion colt trying two turns for the first time. There's legit talent in this race, so a quirky stretch out is not in the cards. Pass.
#10 - Casse colt won his first try at two turns in an ungraded stake at Monmouth. Big step up in class here. Pass.
#11 - Ran awful in the Bourbon after a stakes win at testing Kentucky Downs. Closer type adds blinkers, eh. Reverse tri key maybe.
#12 - Another stretch out for connections that do not do it very well. Pass.
#13 - Pletcher runner won the Pilgrim in his first try on turf, and on soft ground to boot. Would be a little bit surprising but not shocking.
#14 - Pace presence, stretching out. From the outside post he'll need to gun it, usually not a good setup but will help off the pace horses later in the race.

A - 2,4
B - 1,8
 
Yes, dead heat in the opener. B Dawk closely tracked the pace setter, took over exiting the turn and held on late as Business Model ran about 6th on the back stretch and was able to close. Open Road and the pace setter Dropping Gs held on to 3rd and 4th. The primary closer Ethereal Road was able to gain no ground.

Business Model moved to within about 3 lengths of the lead entering the far turn. I think Forte will need to be that close to have a chance in the Juvenile.
 
OK I put in a pick 5 with all my A choices except Forte. May back him up on some late doubles if things are going well.

2, 4, 5, 9 / 3, 5, 7, 8, 14 / 1, 9, 12, 13, 14 / 3 / 2, 4

Good luck everyone!
 
I have 6 8 10 here in the 2nd in the doubles with Business Model.

2 is dead on the board. Out of Songbird, she'd be bet if she was anything?
 
Songbirds baby broke last was slow early on, and made up alot of ground to finish 3rd.
 
Yeah too much room to.make up, just got out terribly. Not sure any of them was beating 7 today anyway.
 
KJ said:
Yeah too much room to.make up, just got out terribly. Not sure any of them was beating 7 today anyway.
Click to expand...
Yeah. The 7 had burned me before should've gave her one more chance. Especially with Irad.
 
Gandolf said:
OK I put in a pick 5 with all my A choices except Forte. May back him up on some late doubles if things are going well.

2, 4, 5, 9 / 3, 5, 7, 8, 14 / 1, 9, 12, 13, 14 / 3 / 2, 4

Good luck everyone!
Click to expand...
Really appreciate your well thought out handicapping and all the time it took in posting it ...
Best of luck Brother
Hope you cash a monster pick 5 today !!
 
Always fascinated to watch the Euros coming to run in the US. The racing is just so much different.
 
I'll take a stab on #5 Mischief Magic currently at 10-1 for $20 WIN

$3 ex key 2 over 5
$2 ex key. 3,6,7,10,11,12 over 5

10 cent Super
2,11,12
2,3,7,11,12
5
2,3,6,7,8,10,11,12
Cost 7.20

10 cent Super
2,11,12
2,3,7,11,12
2,3,6,7,8,10,11,12
5
Cost 7.20
 
I'm against the Platinum Queen but she is a damn fine specimen. She looks like speed. Lot more substance to her rhan most of the Euros
 
So Tylers Tribe bled. Ran on Lasix all his other starts. Can't run on Lasix in these grade 1s now
 
Thats another thing you have to pay attention too handicapping. How horses have performed off lasix.
 
Late pick 4

25 cent
Race 7. 10,7,5,8,14,2,3
Race 8. 9,10,4,6,12,13,1,5
Race 9. 3
Race 10. 4,8,2,1,6,13
Cost 89.50


Late pick 3
25 cent
Race 8. 1,4,5,6,9,10,12,13,14
Race 9. 4,6,10
Race 10. 1,2,4,6,8,13
Cost 40.50
 
OK, clunker for 4th place is good old Dallas Stewart with #4 Sabra Tuff. I don't have the balls to reverse tri key him at 64/1 but I'll key him in 4th on a dime super. If it connects it might net over a grand.

3,5,7,8,10,14 / 3,5,7,8,10,14 / 3,5,7,8,10,14 / 4 $12
 
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