Bowl Season Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback
- Thread starter Br@ssknux
- Start date
Eric Antrobus
Pretty much a regular
Exactly. This could’ve been an all timer. Still alive though
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
Imagine if Daniels never threw that completely WTF INT when they were on a great drive in the 2q that really created the huge margin....instead of what looked like was about to be 24-14, that terrible INT essentially made the game 31-7 at that point.
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
Absolutely. And likewise, who woulda thought Drake Maye would be at 160 or so mid 4q? Kinda crazy situationally on both sides. Instead of a potential shootout, turned into a grind it out, run the ball and let the clock roll in a close game throughout. Both teams playing timid. IMO playing not to WIN but not to LOSE.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Very true. Maye looked very good, but not a lot of yards. It was almost like Nix said, "Oh shit, we might actually lose this game. Time to try to play to win." And then, because he wanted it to happen, it happened. Also, it seems lately that whatever Mack Brown wants, the opposite happens.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I'm going to be staying away from the Pinstripe Bowl. Syracuse's defense looks like the perfect patsy for what Minnesota wants to do. Although they don't appear to be terrible against the run on a per play basis, just about anyone can get 5 yards on the ground whenever they want against the Orange, and that's all PJ Fleck wants to do. He's got a running back in Mo Ibrahim that is perfectly suited for that as well. Minnesota's forte is to pound the opposing defense into submission and convert third downs, and Syracuse is (to be polite) is NOT GOOD on 3rd downs or on stuffing anyone's run game. It could be a slow bleed out for the Orange, but that might not necessarily lead to a double digit spread cover for the Gophers, especially if Syracuse has success throwing the ball, which I think they might. They'll be without stud RB Sean Tucker in this game, and I don't know that they'll even try to incorporate the run in his absence. Defensively, Minny's been good this year, including against the pass, but the passing attacks they've faced have been no better than a competent high school team. The two best passing attacks they played were probably Penn State and Purdue. Penn State threw for 300 on them and they couldn't get Purdue off the field. Even Illinois, who nobody would accuse of being a juggernaut with Tommy DeVito running the show went 25-32 for 252. Oronde Gadsden is a difference maker in the passing game and Garrett Schrader averaged over 8 yards per attempt. I think you can make a case, believe it or not, that Syracuse is the best pass defense they've played. Minny will be without 2 of their best defenders in LB Braelin Oliver and S Michael Dixon. If I thought Syracuse would be able to get a few stops I would take those points, but I don't think they can. I have some faith that they can move the ball, but their possessions will be limited. I certainly wouldn't lay those points, No play for me.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
12. Cheez It Bowl Florida State -9.5 v Oklahoma: Oklahoma had a terrible season by their standards, finishing at 6-6 and staggering into a bowl berth. After a tough season, you'd think they'd get matched up with a similarly situated power 5 team or maybe even a group of 5 team to give them a little respite from the rigors of a tough season, but no. They get Florida State, who has become one of the most solid teams in the country. I know I've said this already, but I'd have Florida State ranked in my top 10 based on their metrics. Oklahoma? Not in the top 50, especially after they got hit with some unfortunate opt outs and transfers, including their best offensive player, RB Eric Gray and their two starting tackles(!!). The time share at RB that they have available is a huge downgrade from Gray, and that's too bad because rush defense is about he only thing FSU isn't very good at. They excel against the pass, bad news for Dylan Gabriel and Marvin Mims, and they get a ton of pressure on the QB(6th in sack rate), which can't be good, since the two starting tackles aren't playing. On the flip side, Oklahoma has been shaky all year, especially against the run, and RB Trey Benson has been a favorite of the analytics crowd, causing a ton of missed tackles and averaging 4 yards after contact on his runs. Jordan Travis also thrives as a runner, so it looks like a bad matchup for the Sooners. I'm never wild about laying DD, but I think this one has a chance to be an ass kicking, especially since FSU has had almost no defections of any consequence, and they are riding high off the commitment of Jordan Travis coming back for another year. That sparked some good vibes which should serve them well in this one and toward the offseason. OU is down but any time you have an opportunity to make a statement against a program like Oklahoma, the record might as well be 12-0.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
My $0.02 on Texas / Washington. I try to be an unbiased Texas alum. Overly cynical probably.
- Penix's decision to stay and play is big and not a single UW player is sitting / out for the Alamo Bowl. They've all opted in.
- UW has won its last six including wins against Oregon State, on the road at Oregon and then a beatdown of Wazzu in the Apple Cup.
- 15 starters coming back next season and feels like a team that is geared toward beating a "marquee" program to launch the '23 season.
- Horns ended '22 in good fashion with Sarkisian telling his two elite RBs to win the games given how bad Ewers had become. And they did just that.
- But both Bijon and Roshon, the core of the team who won the games late in the season, are sitting this one out.
- That leaves Ewers to shoulder the offensive load, with no experience in the backfield and Worthy ready to get into the portal. Who knows where his head is. I guess Ewers could pull one out of his ass but he was a lost, very lost, QB down the stretch.
Washington getting a FG plus in this game just seems off. Yeah, it will be a home game for Texas. But so was the UW / Oregon game in Autzen.
I'll be surprised if Washington doesn't win this game.
- Penix's decision to stay and play is big and not a single UW player is sitting / out for the Alamo Bowl. They've all opted in.
- UW has won its last six including wins against Oregon State, on the road at Oregon and then a beatdown of Wazzu in the Apple Cup.
- 15 starters coming back next season and feels like a team that is geared toward beating a "marquee" program to launch the '23 season.
- Horns ended '22 in good fashion with Sarkisian telling his two elite RBs to win the games given how bad Ewers had become. And they did just that.
- But both Bijon and Roshon, the core of the team who won the games late in the season, are sitting this one out.
- That leaves Ewers to shoulder the offensive load, with no experience in the backfield and Worthy ready to get into the portal. Who knows where his head is. I guess Ewers could pull one out of his ass but he was a lost, very lost, QB down the stretch.
Washington getting a FG plus in this game just seems off. Yeah, it will be a home game for Texas. But so was the UW / Oregon game in Autzen.
I'll be surprised if Washington doesn't win this game.
Good stuff
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Rather than edit my original post with the Washington play, I'll link it here because you basically listed the basis of my play Frank. I could not agree more.
13. Alamo Bowl Washington +3 v Texas: As is usually the case with the Alamo Bowl, this is a really fun matchup. If not for a hiccup in consecutive road games back in October, we might be in the middle of a very different story for Washington as they finished strong with great performances at Oregon and in the Apple Cup against Washington State. If that WSU game was a fight, the doctors would have stopped it early due to facial disfiguration because WAZZOU was completely helpless, (Think Rocky/Clubber Lang I). Michael Penix has been good all year leading the Huskies to a 6th best yards per play number and #1 ranking on 3rd down. Texas's defense has been good all year, but they gave up points to good offenses, and I think DeBoer will have a completely engaged team, which we can surmise due to the apparent lack of any opt outs or significant transfers. As Frank notes, the major issue in my opinion is that since Robinson and Johnson are both going to be out, this Texas offense will be completely reliant on Quinn Ewers, and although I like Ewers, nobody who has watched the Texas offense over the past month of the season would be comfortable with that proposition. He'll have some additional comfort because Washington struggles to cover people, but they'll put some heat on him (23rd in sack rate) and he hasn't responded well to pressure. Frank pretty much said it all above, but I'll take the points with a Washington team that I think the Texas offense will have a hard time keeping up with. Texas has looked extremely good in bowls in recent years, but this year feels a little different, mostly because of the defections, with Robinson, Johnson and Overshown being the biggest ones.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Assume you're talking about Minny and Cuse, but I have seen some cappers I like on that over. No opinion on that for me, as you know and have noted.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
I played Washington -2.5 +180 yesterday. Feels like a high variance game to me
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
It’s hard to find a bowl game that isn’t high variance, actually. Typically with a short dog I always like to take the points(Kansas a great example why yesterday), but so many dogs who cover win outright this time of year. As a result, I would not disagree with looking to get a better payout.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
I meant to to say you were in the vast MAJORITY. Too many tokes before I wrote that comment so I'm surprised I didn't make more errors
I'm with you on seeing a couple of Big 12 teams that could surprise. That's why I'm using teaser to bet against them. Florida State is the only one I'm taking straight up, but I'm also taking them in a couple of teasers including one with Washington.
I only have a small sample because I just started betting teasers in the last half of the season, but I may bet nothing but teasers if I can hold the percentage I'm hitting with them in the last couple of months
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ronnie a
Well-Known Member
I can't imagine where they ever got their name.... "Teasers".
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I saw some uncertainty on whether the top guys from UCLA are playing in the Sun Bowl tomorrow. Well, they're all there, and I read that Chip Kelly said that WR Jake Bobo's parents flight to El Paso got cancelled so they got in their car and drove 12 hours to get there. I'd guess he's playing, LOL
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Not going to have a play on the Duke's Mayo Bowl. I was leaning to NC State, but I can't find a single person anywhere who isn't on the Wolfpack, and to me, this isn't a completely cut and dried slam dunk kind of game. I'm skeptical of Maryland because they are prone to anemic offensive efforts when they can't run the ball. That scenario seems likely tomorrow because NC State is very good against the run, ranking 27th in yards per carry, and very highly in advanced metrics such as stuff rate(#1) and line yards allowed(#6). Maryland is also going to be without several weapons on offense, including WRs Dontay Demus, Jacob Copeland and Rakim Jarrett as well as TE CJ Dipre. These are certainly damaging losses, and much is being made especially about Demus, but his production was not very extensive this year, as he only ranked 8th on the team in receiving yards and 7th in receptions. Dippre was ok, but he was not as productive as fellow TE Corey Dyches, who will be playing in the game. The Terps will also have leading receiver Jeshaun Jones, s it's not like the cupboard will be completely bare. Also, Maryland was solid on defense as well, stopping the run well and doing very well in coverage. I think they'll matchup well with an NC State offense that cannot run the ball at all, and might be relying on 4th stringer Ben Finley if QB MJ Morris can't go. Even if Morris plays, he's banged up and has only started 3 games with mixed results. Like I mentioned, I originally liked NC State, but every pundit I've heard with an opinion is on NC State as if the game has already been played(similar to Florida State). The fact that they could be severely limited offensively themselves keeps me off them and off the game overall.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
14. Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl UCLA -7.5 v Pitt: The games I've lost this bowl season have all been favorites, so I'm taking a chance here, but this is a ridiculous display by Pitt. Frankly. Pat Narduzzi should be embarrassed. Whatever operation he is running over there at Pitt certainly can't be called a team. Virtually every player worth a damn on Pitt isn't going to play, including ALL FOUR CAPTAINS. What the hell kind of program do you have, when the 4 guys you identify as the leaders of your program, to set the tone for the rest of the team, don't have enough loyalty to you or the team they have been tabbed to lead to care enough to even suit up for the bowl game? None f the 4 are injured. All are deciding not to play. How can anyone on Pitt even give a shit if their CAPTAINS desert them? You can make a case that all 8 of their top 8 players won't play in the game. QB Slovis is out. RB Abandakanda is out. Their best wide receiver Jared Wayne hasn't been declared out, but Narduzzi pretty much confirmed as such the other day. On defense, all the players that were the reason for their success are gone. 6 defensive lineman including their top 3 are gone, their top 2 safeties are out, and their captain linebacker is out. On offense, in additional to their best 3 skill guys, 2 starting linemen aren't playing. The two QBs fighting it out to start are hurt or sick, and both of them aren't really any good. Pitt could have been a live dog in this one, but shit, if they don't give a fuck about playing, why should I bet on them? We oftentimes hear people asking the question, Do the fans care more about the games than the players do? I used to scoff at that notion, but as it relates to these bowl games, is there any question? ***********Ok, I digress...back to the game. We've established that Pitt will have tons of players out. UCLA on the other hand, will have none. Chip Kelly confirmed that at his presser yesterday, which ended speculation that DTR, Charbonnet, Jake Bobo or all 3 would be sitting out. Nobody is on the UCLA side. Now there's a little bit of risk because sometimes the team with all it's players will relax, and there certainly are good players that will be suiting up for Pitt. But UCLA is a tough team to play against, and don't forget that they had their bowl game cancelled at the last minute last year. We accuse the UCLA administration of chickening out of that game last year, but I don't think the players were the ones leaning in that direction. UCLA was good against the run this year, not so good against the pass. That is not likely to matter with Nick Patti back there slinging the rock. The line has moved 3+ points, but that is mostly due to the confirmation that UCLA's players are in. The previous line was assuming UCLA would eventually have it's share of opt outs. This is a steam game that I think has good reason to be a steam game. Pitt's depth is not, in my opinion, good enough to help them recover from the losses, especially with weak backup QB talent.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
The Gator Bowl is almost impossible to figure out for me, so I'm not doing anything with it. One thing we would assume in this one is that Notre Dame will be able run it at will on the Gamecocks. They've been strong in that category all year with Diggs and Estime running it, and South Carolina is at the bottom in every run defense category you could point toward. Also, South Carolina has a disappointing amount of opt outs and transfers, which to me is really surprising, given the amount of momentum they had at the end of the year and the nature of their coach, Shane Beamer, who seems to be very likable. Their losses are very damaging. Their skill people are going to be mostly backups other than QB Rattler, and several defensive players are out as well. There was a ton of optimism from their fan base, and they've sold out their allotment of tickets and then some in Jacksonville, but apparently, the players don't share the same kind of enthusiasm as the fans do. (There's that comparison again!!) These events would make you think laying the 3.5 with the Irish is the right play, but I am not sure about that. ND is a terrible favorite, and their two best players plus their starting QB either opted out or transferred, so you'd have to wonder where the winning plays are going to come from for the Irish also. Michael Mayer, easily their best offensive player and by far their main target in the passing game is done, as is Isaiah Foskie on the defensive side. It looks like they'll perhaps start Tyler Buchner, but he has never been a guy who can hurt you throwing the ball. They will be brutally one dimensional. Also, Shane Beamer has proven to be extremely resourceful in his young career, winning outright in tough spots, including last year's bowl in which he beat North Carolina by 17 points in a game that he was a massive underdog. I don't trust Freeman and the Irish to take care of business as a dog here, and the edges ND has on paper are too severe for me to assume a down to the wire type game. Nothing for me here.
Frank Costanza
You are what your record says you are
Ewers played well, no issues there. But you can't lose two RBs like the ones that sat tonight and expect to compensate for that missing production.
Played out about as we expected.
Played out about as we expected.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
15. Arizona Bowl Ohio ML (-135) v Wyoming: This line can be found at 2, and I wouldn't argue with anyone that wanted to go that route rather than the Money line, but I've gotten in the habit of taking the points with short dogs and eating the money line on short favorites, and it's served me pretty well lately. Typically I look to back Craig Bohl, and he's really the only pro from the Wyoming side in this matchup. Bohl is extremely adept at accomplishing something with virtually nothing, and that's a good thing because he seems to also be really adept at finding himself being left with nothing. I'm not sure why, what players are leaving Wyoming in droves, and this year is no exception. Nobody that has carried the ball from the RB position this year will be available in this bowl. They also will be without easily their most productive receiver, and on the defensive side, they'll be missing heir top corner, their 3rd nest sack guy and probably their nose tackle Cole Godbout who has been battling an injury. I really don't know how Wyoming is going to move the ball. Ohio isn't a great defense, bu they've improved immensely from an almost comically bad pass defense from earlier in the year while also becoming more stout against the run. Being bad against the pass isn't a killer against Wyoming because they are primarily a run offense, but as I mentioned, hey don't have anyone to run the ball. Offensively, Ohio has been very good all year, but they will be without standout QB Kurtis Roarke, who was injured late in the season. They'll be relying on RB Sieh Bandura and backup QB CJ Harris. Harris is a downgrade from Roarke, but he has also gained experience and won a couple games for he Bobcats late in the year. They also have two of the top 30 receivers in yards per reception in the country(James Bostic and Jacoby Jones), so they have some explosiveness at that position. On paper, I have Ohio with the edge in most categories, and one of the only areas Wyoming has the edge is in the run game, and as I mentioned, Wyoming is not currently equipped with all their weapons to make a big difference there. Wyoming QB Andrew Peasley, who isn't really much good, looks like he might have to be a one man gang offensively for the Pokes, and I would not like that if I had a ticket on Wyoming. As a result I will not.
AliShaheed
Pretty much a regular
Or the team/players treat the game like a farewell tour and get pulled early like Mo Ibrahim yesterday.
That's something I need to be really mindful of going forward. And especially for the Sugar Bowl. Just cause these guys show the 'courage' to play doesn't mean they're signing up for 4 quarters.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
exactly. who knows if Charbs plays this whole game for example
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
This is a very good point. There is definitely a lot of risk in guys ending up in street clothes.
I would mention this though: when the line was hovering around 3.5/4, I was ready to fire on UCLA even if those 3 guys didn’t play. I like Chase Griffin and Garbers(whoever they would play) a ton better than Patti and Yarnall on Pitt and UCLA’s defense doesn’t appear to be weakened much by opt outs. I think UCLA will be ok regardless. It’s another favorite though so you can take that for what it’s worth.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I would be shocked if Alabama treats this as anything other than a regular game. Meaning, I think Bryce and Will (and everyone) are going to play their normal snap load
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Similar reads as you and respect your ability to lay off. I love all favorites today which is a bad recipe.
haha I feel you. I def have no self control :bigcry:
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Interested in your take on the Sugar Bowl my man. I love love love what the Bama guys. If anyone has a reason to sit out a bow it's Anderson and Young, and they're playing. It kind of makes all these guys opting out because they have a shot at being a day 3 draft pick look bad, IMO.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Sorry for the delay on this. I pulled the trigger on Tennessee +6 this morning in the Orange Bowl but was running around all day and am just getting around to writing this one up. I'm seeing 4 now, so I can't call this an official play and I would only play it for maybe 1 unit at that number. I think this game is going to come down to the wire. Tennessee has been hearing how they are screwed without Hooker, and I'm not going to pretend that Milton is as good as he is, but I believe the bulk of what makes Tennessee hard to play against is how different their offense is to what teams normally see. Hytt and Tillman are going to be big losses, but they'll still have a bunch of capable guys at receiver, not to mention all their running backs and they'll have their OL studs, including OT Darnell Wright. Also, Milton is no stiff. He's played limited snaps this year, but he's got a 7/0 ratio and is averaging 13.3 yards per ATTEMPT on 54 passes. Heupel's offense has a way of making things easy for the QB, and make no mistake, he's the key, not OC Golesh, who is off to USF. (Fun fact on Golesh...he's somehow persevered despite initially being tied to hip with the ultimate low caliber human and classic box of rocks level dullard Tim Beckman. ). Clemson has a lot of talent on defense, but they've found a way to give up tons of yards in several games this year, and they'll be without two very important defensive guys in DL Myles Murphy(probably top 10 pick) and LB Trenton Simpson. On offense, it's true that they are finally rid of DJU, but are we convinced that Cade Klubnik is ready to thrive after just one good game? We had a lot of data points telling us the opposite prior tp that game against UNC's defense. I have no doubt that Dabo will have his team ready, but I don't think they are good enough to just blow out this Tennessee team because they feel like it.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
I was surprised by their decision at first, but in retrospect I shouldn't have been. These two guys have been as good as ambassadors for the program, and college football as a whole, that you could ever ask for. I know they didn't achieve what they wanted, but even without that, they will both hold an elevated position in the program's history. And once those two said they are playing, I don't know how anyone else on the team could look at anyone in the eye and said they were opting out. Now that all being said, Kansas St is a very good team, and likely better than anyone Alabama has beaten this year. And probably as good or better than Tenn and LSU, who both beat us. And they will certainly be up for this game. Historically, having a month to prepare for an opponent has been very good for Alabama. And I think it will be here too, but there are some reasons for concern. For one, we will be down a starter on the OL. It is somewhat minimized by the fact that Tyler Booker played a huge amount this year, and he will just slide in and be a full time player at LG rather than part time between LG/RG. After that is where it gets a little tricky. Nobody notable transferred from the OL, but the depth is impacted for this game should anyone get injured. More concerning for Alabama is the Will LB. Both the guys who have played the majority of snaps this season are banged up, with Moody (played the most snaps I think) likely out. Maybe we'll be able to play a lot of nickel like we normally do, but that could certainly impact how effective KSt is at running the ball.
I think the matchup that could decide this is Alabama running game vs KSt run defense. KSt is 83rd YPC on defense, and Alabama is 4th on offense. Gibbs should be healthy and motivated to improve his draft stock, plus it's his first bowl game in his career. If Alabama can run the ball effectively, then that opens it all up for Bryce and the passing game. It will be a much smaller WR rotation than it was all season, and I actually think it's a good thing because it was hard to distribute a limited amount of snaps between all those WR. Especially since none of them seemed to be able to separate themselves from the others.
On defense, I don't expect Alabama to produce a vintage Tide game, but I have to think it will be the most athletic defense KSt has seen, especially with the pass rushers.
Overall, I expect a focused and motivated Alabama team. They think they should have been in the playoff (they shouldn't) and want to prove it. Saban mentioned that it's bee one of the best bowl preps he's had since he's been there, and I think they are ready to play their best game of the season. Maybe that doesn't mean much, but I tend to think it does. I will be heavy on the over, and Alabama TT over, and I think they will cover the 6.5 as well (shocker, I know). KSt will certainly make them work for it, but I think it will end up being something like 45-20 Alabama.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Awesome as always from a guy whose opinion I always want to know. Thanks so much for taking the time, gps. I'm stuck with a K State bet that I can't get out of now, and the only reason I made that bet was hoping for a middle when the Bama guys maybe opted out. No further damage on this one for me, and your well reasoned opinion on it was the clincher.
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
Honored that a capper of your stature cares what I think. Good luck the rest of bowl season Brass. Your threads are always a must read by anyone wishing to win bets
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I really agree on your comments GPS about the TIde getting the running game going and having that lead to nice opening and balance with passing game. I would expect a decent tempo in this game, which should help the over also. Of concern is Ala TO ratio at -4 which is not typical for them, have to go back to 2014 to find a negative ratio prior to this. Takeaways in particular are very low this season only 12. I think the Tide will be motivated, and as you said the key leaders have set a great example.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Wow, I had no idea about the TO ratio. I didn't think it was even possible for Alabama to have a negative TO ratio. I would think the CFB gods would not allow it. Great info Timmy.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Ha! It's the other way around. I'm just glad you make your way in here.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
16: Music City Bowl: Iowa ML(-130) v Kentucky. First of all, the fact that the bowl people allowed a rematch in a bowl from the previous year is a complete joke. There's about 100 ways this could have been avoided...I mean how many SEC/Big Ten combos are there? In that game last year, Kentucky edged Iowa 20-17. 277 of the 354 yards gained by Kentucky were courtesy of Wandale Robinson and Chris Rodriguez, both of which are gone. Also gone in this game for Kentucky will be QB Will Levis, who will be a 1st round pick in April WR Tayvion Robinson, who is probably their fastest receiver and their best corner, Carrington Valentine. The total in this game is as low as I've ever seen in a bowl game(31). I assume that's some kind of record, and it's warranted. In my opinion, Kentucky has almost no chance to move the ball on Iowa's defense, who looks to be pretty much intact for this game other than Kayvon Merriwhether. Cooper DeJean was rumored to be out as well, but he was confirmed IN a couple days ago. As a result of all that, I can't see how Kentucky will have any success in this game on offense. Their OL is historically bad. RB Chris Rodriguez, who has opted out of this game is in my opinion one of the best runners in the country. They were without him in the first 4 games of the season, and in those 4 games they played Miami(OH), Florida, Youngstown State and Northern Illinois. Florida ranked 105th against the run at the end of the year, and the other 3 were obviously not Power 5 competition. They didn't crack 3 yards per carry in any of those games. Iowa ranks 4th in rush defense. Kentucky also ranks 128th in sack rate allowed. Put simply, Iowa will do whatever they want against this offensive line and skill people. This is obviously also the case for Iowa's offense against the Kentucky defense as well, as Iowa's line was almost as bad and they will be missing some skill people as well, including the only QBs that took a snap over the past 2 seasons. The obvious question is "Is that a bad thing?" because we all know how bad Spencer Petras and Alex Padilla were this year. Someone named Joey Labas is going to play QB, but how bad can he be. The good news for him is that he will have his two solid receiving TEs in Sam LaPorta and Luke Lachey. If I'm Kirk Ferentz, I would either QB sneak it 3 times and punt, or limit throws to one of those two guys down the seam. Iowa would probably be content to win the toss, defer, get a 3 and out, receive the punt around their own 45, and then punt it back to Kentucky on 1st down to get them pinned inside the 10. When Iowa has people pinned deep, they are like a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter climbing on top and choking the opponent out. The chances of a defensive score in that scenario are very high. Iowa could easily score about 16-19 points with about 25 yards of offense in this one, because I can't see any ability for Kentucky to flip the field. Throw in a major edge for Iowa's 4th ranked ST unit vs Kentucky's 81st, and you can see all different kinds of ways Iowa can be successful in this game assuming zero offensive production. It would be just like Kirk Ferentz to finish the season off on a positive note and then mention how Iowa was the 2023 Music City Bowl champs when the Iowa City media tries to criticize him next year.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Based on gps's great breakdown of the Sugar Bowl I'm not going to do anything additional on that game. I tried to get myself in a good middle spot by taking K State +4.5 a few weeks ago anticipating Bama opt outs, but now I'm stuck with it since said opt outs never happened. (It did my heart good to be honest). I don't hate that bet terribly because KState will be motivated and is a damn good team, but I agree with gps that Saban thinks he has a lot to prove here, and his players will be out there with good intentions. Does that mean they'll get what they want? You can't assume that because I thought extreme motivation would lead them to a blowout over A&M and that didn't materialize, and K State is certainly as tough a test as Texas is, for example. The line reached 7, but I don't wan to get double dipped on a late pick 6 or something like that, so I won't add anything. If I didn't have the initial bet, I'd probably throw some change at K State +7, but I'm dome with this one.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
17. Fiesta Bowl SemiFinal #1: TCU +8 v Michigan: I know Michigan looked great in the second half of their game against Ohio State, but I'm still taken aback at how so many people make the assumption that Michigan is some sort of juggernaut. What have they proven, even over the past 2 years, other than they can handle a soft Ohio State team? They embarrassed themselves enough to prove they were out of their element in last year's semis, and this year, 3/4ths of their schedule consisted of layups, and I think we would all agree that last year's Michigan defense had much more in the way of premium talent. I could be wrong, but I am just not ready to anoint them as a slam dunk top 2 team in the county. McCarthy hit some big plays against Ohio State's Cover zero or whatever that was, but throughout the year, he was very inconsistent and his outside receivers haven't done much of anything all year. Michigan will have an edge in the trenches and you would think they will try to run it down TCU's throat, but although I love Donovan Edwards, he's one hit away from a major dropoff. Also, no team will benefit from the long break more than TCU, who had their bye week in mid September and has run through a murderer's row of games leading up to this one. All of their guys who have been nicked up will be ready to go, and it gives two of the best coordinators in the country time to prepare, especially Joe Gillespie on the defensive side. TCU's corners are good enough to compete with the Michigan receivers one on one, which will allow them to stack the box. That was the plan against Texas to stop Bijan Robinson, and it worked like a charm, and I would say that Texas's receivers are not easy to cover one on one. This offense is also unique to what Michigan has seen, and I trust Max Duggan to be able to move the ball. All TCU has heard is how much big bad Michigan is going to physically dominate them. I might be wrong, but I just don't see it. On this fast track, I can see those TCU receivers shell shocking the Wolverines early, and if we see the JJ MCCarthy that we saw at times this year, Michigan will be scrambling. I'll take the points here.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
18. Peach Bowl SemiFinal #2 Georgia -5.5 v Ohio State: Like I mentioned above, Ohio State is soft. CJ Stroud is very good when things are going well, but he has faltereed when the going gets tough physically, especially in the two games against Michigan and the Oregon game last year. Georgia has had some subpar games this year, but never when they are completely engaged with their season's fate in the balance. Whenever they need to be on their game, they are. Now that this line has dropped under 6, I had to take it. Ohio State will need to run it to be effective, and I'm not sure who is going to be carrying the ball for them. Trevion Henderson looks as if he is not healthy, ad Miyan Williams is up in the air as well. Looking at the statistics is pretty pointless in this one because both teams rank highly in just about every category, but I can't help but think that Georgia is much more capable of forcing their will in their backyard than Ohio State is. There's sharp money on Ohio State here, but I don't think they can just magically become a physical force in a few weeks. Georgia looks to be too tough for them. Georgia is the best team in the country by quite a bit in my opinion, and I think they'll take care of business here.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Hunt! Same to you!
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
On point regarding Bam. Tailed the shit out of this. Nice job
gps_3
Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
It’s not often I see things this well, but when I do….
