Bowl Season Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback
- Thread starter Br@ssknux
- Start date
pressitup
Leader of the Adult Humor Industry
not on this site, it's a requirement
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Wow. That's right up there with some of the worst bowl conditions I can remember.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
They were just so bad on every level. Couldn't apply any pressure with their down lineman, couldn't cover man to man and zone was even worse just gaping seams available. I was waiting for them to try and change something up (anything) and come up with some press coverage and blitzing but they just muddled along and gave them all the time in the world to do whatever they wanted in the passing game.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Two bowls have been played at 12 degrees, and on at 14. I didn’t find info on winds.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Yup, it's fucking cold in Texas / pretty much everywhere.
Over for bodies in the seats tonight: 3,000. On the under.
Over for bodies in the seats tonight: 3,000. On the under.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
It was easy to see early in the week the Arctic Storm was going to arrive in Fort Worth in time to really affect this game (fair number of other games too).
I wouldn't even have bet this game except for the weather
I hated playing football in the cold such much I'm biased, but it always seems to me the under is an automatic bet if you're betting the game a game played in bone-chilling cold, windy weather. I don't see any way to predict how the weather affects the side, but I see the under as about a 62%-64% winner. I played under, plus under/AF in a parlay.
Total has plunged to 43 in the last couple of days, but even at that number it's still about a 56-57% winner
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I'm not really going to be doing anything with the Independence Bowl. If anything, I might take the TD with the Rajun Cajuns, but you'll have to lay extra juice to get 7.5. There's a ton of reasons to fade Houston in this spot. First of all, they aren't a significantly better team than La La on paper, probably almost certainly not 7.5 points worth. Also, you have the terrible bowl history of Dana Holgerson. He's covered only 2 bowls in something like 9 or 10 tries, and the only ones he's covered were against big time opponents from bigger conferences that his teams could get up for. That's not the case here, and I can't find any reason why Houston would be enthused to play a 6-6 Louisiana team in Shreveport. The reason Houston is even a decent team this year is due to their QB/WR tandem of Tune and Dell. Both have said that the are going to play, even though both have NFL aspirations, especially Dell. I'm an old school hard ass, and even I can't figure out why this would be the case. It's going to be in the low 20's in Shreveport tomorrow with a 15-25 mile an hour wind blowing. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dell and Tune have second thoughts about that decision because I don't even think their coach cares about this game. It truly does line up to be a pretty easy handicap when it comes to determining who is motivated to play. However, I can't jump on LaLa here because they have some issues of their own Their top offensive player, WR Michael Jefferson is not playing due to an opt out, and their primary QB, Ben Woodridge was injured late in the year and is out for the season. Their backup(Chandler Fields) is not much of a drop-off from Woodridge, but still, having your top QB and top skill player out is never ideal for a significant underdog. With that being said, LaLa's defense is good enough to hang and he Houston D is certainly nothing to write home about. If anything, I'll have a small amount on the dog here provided I'll be able to get 7, but I won't have anything significant on it.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Gasparilla Bowl Missouri helped me cash quite a few tickets this year, and they were a success story largely due to their very solid defense, especially on the defensive line. There's 2 problems with the MIzzou defense as it relates to this game. First, three of the most important players on that defense(among others) have opted out Second, when Mizzou played high octane pass offenses, they got torched(Tennessee comes immediately to mind). Both Sam Hartman and his favorite receiver AT Perry are in for this game, so the Wake passing attack should be ready to go against a defense that has struggled against the pass, even when they had all of their guys. I think Wake is going to score on this defense, The problem is that Wake's defense is going to have problems as well, even though Brady Cook is a stiff and they lost their top receiving target to the portal(Dominick Lovett) Wake is ranked 115th against the pass and 2 of their top 3 corners are in the transfer portal. As weak as Cook has looked at times this year, he's shown improvement over the past few months, and I think Wake might have a rough time stopping the Mizzou offense. The line has also creeped up to almost 3. My initial intention was to bet Wake, but I'm skeptical that they can play effective defense. For that reason I'm sitting this one out for the time being.
inZane
Loving Life on Planet Earth
Lmao you read it like that too eh?!
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
inZane my man If you come to that conclusion yourself, go get 'em, but as I've mentioned many times before, you will never see a total from me in any of my threads because of my near cosmic ability to lose totals wagers.
bookieassassin
Pretty much a regular
Impressive insight man - BOL ............ :shake:
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks BA, same goes for you..
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
8. Hawaii Bowl: San Diego State -6.5 v Middle Tennessee State: I could spend a lot of time giving background on how bad San Diego State's offense was early in the year under former VT QB Braxton Burmeister, but there's no point in slandering the young man. If you are curious as to what truly horrific offensive football looks like in a box score, pull up the Aztecs games in September and early October. In mid October, SDSU coach Brady Hoke had had enough and launched OC Jeff Hecklinski. Shortly thereafter, they told Burmeister to go play wide receiver to take advantage of his "athleticism and competitiveness" and brought safety and former QB Jalen Mayden back to the offensive side of the ball and put him back behind center. The results were a watershed for them. From that point on, the Aztec offense improved on a per play basis from 127th to 53rd during the last 7 weeks. They went 5-2, with the only losses coming against Fresno(with Jake Haener) and in the finale against Air Force, whose defense was on full display a couple nights ago. Mayden has also averaged 8.9 yards per attempt, which would be good for 5th best in the country extrapolated over the season. Defensively, SDSU is not as good as they usually are, but definitely solid under Hoke, and they'll face a MTSU offense that has struggled since dropping 45 points on Miami back in September. They rank 96th in yards per play, 111th in rushing yards per carry and 89th in yards per pass attempt. This is despite defenses like Charlotte, Louisiana Tech , FIU and FAU populating their schedule. defensively they aren't bad against the run, but they'll have issues with Mayden as they rank 92nd in yards per pass attempt allowed. I don't put it past the Raiders to hang for awhile in this one, but SDSU has the edge on both sides of the ball. I think Mayden will have his way with the MTSU defense, and I think the Aztecs will settle in and handle this Raider offense. SDSU has been able to run away rom the MTSU comps on their schedule, and MTSUS has looked bad against the few good defenses they've faced (UAB, WKU, James Madison). Now that the line has gotten under 7, I like the Aztecs here.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
The Quick Lane Bowl might be one of the weakest bowls in recent memory in terms of the caliber of it's participants. New Mexico State won six games, but two of them were against non FBS schools Lamar and Valparaiso. They got special dispensation from the NCAA to qualify for a bowl game, and out of sheer pity and a shortage of bowl eligible teams, it was granted. BG only 2 years ago was a laughingstock of the MAC, but now they also find themselves bowl eligible by hanging around long enough in MAC conference games for their opponents to hand them a couple wins. I can't in good conscience risk any of my hard earned capital on either of these teams if they aren't 20+ point underdogs, and I wouldn't recommend anyone else to do it either. If forced to play something, I would grudgingly take the points with the dog. NMSU showed some competence in their running game and on defense, but the competition(especially opposing offenses) was so bad that I really couldn't tell you if the competence is real. Also, I certainly wouldn't trust BG as a favorite, especially now that it's more than a field goal (3.5 last I checked). Thankfully, I'm not being forced to do anything, so I won't.
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
5 Aztec turnovers (2 fumbles lost, 3 INTs) were the lil Christmas gift that got MTSU the W.
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
Take a look at NMSU. Albeit two of the games were vs non-FBS foes, NMSU did finish the year 5-1 in their last 6 games (after starting 1-5). Early on they dealt with some injuries and were starting a true freshman at QB in a few of those games (and one he took over at half). They're coming in hot, most notably was their 11/26 win as 25 pt dogs @ Liberty, where they didn't just win, they obliterated Liberty. They led 49-7 before a late TD made it a 49-14 NMSU win. QB Pavia really gained a ton of confidence second half of the season and in the last 2 games accounted for a combined 11 TDs run/pass.
All that said, they may get smoked on Monday, but, that's my contribution or $0.02 on this one. GL
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks L8kers. Yeah that Liberty game was definitely something, perhaps one of the most, if not THE most "double take" worthy score of the season. They deserve credit for that, but it was their only remotely noteworthy win of the season, and even that one had an asterisk because Liberty always plays to their level of competition, and they were totally distracted that day due to Freeze tiptoeing toward the Auburn job. I'd agree that they would be the side if I played it, but there's not enough substance with the Aggies to get me there.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Can't really make a recommendation on the Camelia Bowl. Georgia Southern was a nice story this year, and they pretty much moved the ball regardless of who they played, but that defense was terrible. There was only one game all year in which they gave up less than 400 yards and that was the opener against Morgan State. They were a resourceful team this year though, despite all of the yards they gave up. They were a solid dog, hanging in most games and even winning a couple as a big dog outright(Nebraska and James Madison). Buffalo is just about the most non descript team you can find. They were good at anything particularly was hung around and caught some teams on enough bad days to stay in contention in the Mac East and get 6 wins. Offensively, they are ok, but not really good enough to fully take advantage of the Ga Southern defense they'll be lining up against. Their defense is likely to be torched, although the Eagles prefer to throw it and that's one area that the Bulls are at least passable. The line is now 4.5, so it's too high for me to trust Georgia Southern, as that role isn't really suited for them and I never want to be laying points with a defense that might not be able to get off the field. I'm also not running to the window to back a MAC team against a Sun Belt team either.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I think both of the teams in the First Responder Bowl are a little better than what their record shows, and I can find reasons to bet on both Utah State and Memphis. Starting with Utah State, you can find some pretty impressive performances despite their quarterback situation having turned into a nightmare and the fact that they didn't rank highly in any meaningful offensive category Despite being on their 3rd string QB (Cooper Legas, who will be the guy in this bowl) they beat Air Force and found a way to outgain the Falcons in the process. They also could easily have beaten Boise on the road in a game that turned out to be the most laughably brutal beats of the past several years. They were competitive all year despite having just about everything go wrong. Memphis, however, also had a slew of solid performances in games they ultimately dropped, and had some solid wins in the process. A blowout win over navy looks great now, and even their losses against ECU and Tulane were games that they fought until the end. Ultimately I would probably take the 7 with Utah State if forced, but the Mountain West has been hit or miss in the bowls and the American has proven to be a superior conference this year. Ryan Silverfield got a reprieve and will be around next year, so Memphis might have an additional spring in their step. If the Tigers are engaged, it will be tough for the Aggies, but they've also proven their mettle. Only limited transfer/injury losses for both teams. Can't recommend either side ultimately, but there's a slightly better chance for a close game/Utah State win than a Memphis blowout in my opinion.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
It's a recurring theme for the 27th, but I'm not going to have anything on the Birmingham Bowl. Grayson McCall is apparently playing for Coastal despite his impending transfer, but he played in the SBC title game and the Chanticleers were non-competitive from the jump. On the flip side, the ECU pass defense is so bad that if Coastal's offense plays like it did most of the season, they could out up 40+. Coastal will also have a very hard time stopping Ahlers and ECU RB Keaton Mitchell averaged 7+ yards per carry. The variance is so wide for Coastal that I don't think anyone can predict what we'll see from them. Both pass defenses(127th and 129th) are not the kind that you'd want to hitch your wagon to. The only thing I can confidently say about this one is that I have no idea how it will turn out. No play for me.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I originally was planning on playing Wisconsin in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl against Oklahoma State in Phoenix, but that was before the avalanche of opt outs and transfers on Wisconsin. Oklahoma State isn't in any better shape, as QB Sanders and leading rusher Domonic Richardson are both transferring out. This game is effectively a game between second strings of two teams that don't appear to have any motivation, so I can't see why anyone could think that they have a handle on this game. I liked Wisconsin because Sanders was early in his announcement, and Oklahoma State has proven to be completely helpless on offense without him. Even with him, any success was a function of smoke and mirrors, and it seemed the juju that Mike Gundy had been able to conjure out historically from an ATS perspective had dried up, at least for this year. Wisconsin was set up to completely shut down that Cowboy attack, but more than half of the Badgers starting lineup is missing for this game, including standouts Nick Herbig(LB), Keanu Benton(NT), and Lay Shaw(CB) and Justin Clark(CB) in the secondary. They also won't have a QB whose taken any meaningful snaps and Baraelon Allen is highly questionable to play in this one. On paper, Wisconsin looked to be the logical pick, but there is no telling what they'll look like by gametime.
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
Agree with you on the bowls today. The only one I thought about was E Caro/C Caro over, but the problem is C Carolina cannot be relied on to do anything, including score against a weak E Carolina D. They might, but no way to predict it based on their recent performances. And that was with their coach. The fact he's gone just makes them more unpredictable.
If I had to bet I'd just take all the dogs and hope the percentages were on my side
sevenpointroaddog
Active Member
Agreed. Discipline is admirable.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
9. Military Bowl: Duke -3(-120) v UCF: I was a fan of UCF coming into the season, especially the addition of John Rhys Plumlee, which paid off for Malzahn and the Knights. However, Plumlee's status is totally up in the air for this one, and even if he plays, he's one play away from putting UCF in a very tough spot, and in the last 6 games, that "one play" has happened in 5 of them. If that happens, UCF is in big trouble because Duke is a pretty bad matchup for them, and since backup Mikey Keene is off to Fresno, it would mean Freshman Thomas Castellanos would be back in there. If his experience from playing tin the American title game is any indication, yikes. Castellanos was not ready to play and it showed. UCF was non competitive with Castellanos in there, and unless he's made some major strides in a month, he'll be non-competitive against Duke solid defense too. Although I don't want to get carried away about Duke's season due to their weak schedule, most people set the over under on their season win total at about 3 or so. Great job obviously by Mike Elko, as it was no fluke. Duke was very balanced on offense, and their defense made huge strides in Elko's first year, getting to 8 wins. This really is a good matchup for Duke. Defensively they were solid, but that was mostly due to a solid run defense(21st in yards per rush against). Running the ball is UCF's forte, and they're likely to have a hard time, especially if Plumlee is off the field or not 100%. He's already overcome a concussion and a shoulder injury and now he's fighting through a hamstring injury. Offensively, Duke runs it well and executes effectively, and UCF has had issues stopping the run all year, ranking 107th in yards per rush attempt. QB Riley Leonard can run, but he was also an efficient passer, sporting a 20/6 ratio while averaging almost 8 yards per attempt. He also runs well, which will come in handy against a UCF defense that does well on 3rd down. Overall, I think these two teams are moving in different directions. Duke is sky high after a very surprisingly good season with a first year coach. They have no opt outs and nobody so far of any consequence in the portal. UCF will be without some key pieces, including backup QB Keene as well as their top receiver Ryan O'Keefe and two key players on defense, LB Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste and CB Devonte Brown, both of whom were starters. I bought the line down to 3 because I do think if Plumlee plays at 100% this could come down to the wire. Ultimately though, I think Duke has the edge on both sides of the ball as well as the motivational edge. Great momentum for the Blue Devils here.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
10. Liberty Bowl: Kansas +2.5 v Arkansas: I've been riding Kansas all year with some mixed but mostly positive results. I'm not gonna stop here because this is another game where I see a distinct motivational edge and it's definitely on the Jayhawks side. in addition, there's opt outs and transfers galore for the Hogs and virtually nothing in that regard for Kansas. Arkansas will have KJ Jefferson, and that's great news for them, but they will be without a ton of his pals on both sides of the ball. WRs Jadon Hazelwood was their best receiver, he's gone. WR Ketron Jackson was also a starter and he's also gone, off to Baylor. WR Warren Thompson was a rotation guy who would have probably been their top option if he stayed, but he's gone to the portal as well. Their best TE is also gone, as are two starters on the offensive line. Defensively, they were terrible all year, ranking 122nd in yards per play, 115th against the run and 120th against the pass. It's hard to find bright spots on that side of the ball, but if they had any, they would be Edge rusher Drew Sanders(likely first rounder) and linebacker Bumper Pool, both of whom are likely to be early draft picks. Those guys are both out, as are DB Miles Slusher and their top run stuffer Isaiah Nichols. Apparently, they have 5 or 6 guys who will be starting on defense who have never registered a tackle, and most are freshman. That would be bad news against any offense, but if there was one team I would hate to be facing with that kind of inexperience, it would be Lance Leipold and Kansas. They move the ball on everybody. I could go through their rankings in pretty much every offensive category, but you get the picture, they are good on offense and very tricky and difficult to prepare for. Hogs DC Barry Odom is off to UNLV so there's no telling who will be tasked with getting these guys ready to get torched by whoever suits up at QB for the Jayhawks, as both Jalon Daniels and Jason Bean were very good this year. Kansas's defense is also very poor, but they will be highly motivated, and the can at least compete against the run, which is Arkansas's main modus operandi. We've got one team with everyone available and who appears to be highly motivated in their first bowl game in forever, against a team that can barely get enough warm bodies to fill up the roster. They'll also be starting a bunch of kids who have never seen live college football, and they'll have to go up against an offensive savant and a high performing offense. It's a very bad combination for the Hogs, and we're getting points to boot.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
11. Holiday Bowl: Oregon -13 v North Carolina: When I was looking at this game, I was trying to find a reason to play North Carolina. Whenever I see a spread this large in a bowl game, I'm attracted to the dog, especially when I know the Oregon defense struggles so much on 3rd down and there's a QB on the other side that is the caliber of Drake Maye. However, I can't see how North Carolina gets a stop if Oregon doesn't just have mercy on them and stop themselves. At this point in the season, I don't think North Carolina would rank in most people's top 50 or 60 in their power rankings. Their best wins are 3 point wins over Wake and Duke, and in their last 3, they lost outright at home to both Georgia Tech and NC State(who had to use 4 QBs in that game) and then they were toyed with by Clemson in the ACC title game. Both teams have some opt outs. Oregon will be missing 2 of their best defensive players (LB Sewell and CB Rodriguez) which will certainly hurt, but UNC, despite their terrible defense, will be missing almost their entire secondary. That's bad news against anyone, but terrible news against the likes of Oregon, who were fantastic offensively all year with Bo Nix in there. UNC will also be missing Josh Downs, who had almost 3 times as many catches as anyone else on the squad, and Drake Maye regressed a bit when teams started to figure him out. Also, UNC is 130th in sack rate defensively while Oregon is ranked 1st! Bo Nix will stand back there as long as he wants. This might be one of those games where we notice that one team gained almost every available yard, a la UNC's offense vs Miami in 2021, only this time it will be UNC on the business end of the offensive beatdown. UNC will probably have a good amount of success, but I don't think they'll be able to keep up. This one looks like a 55-27 type game to me.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
You would think. Lots of guys ripe to be fooled by a tricky offense.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Even though my numbers are screaming at me to lay the points with Ole Miss, I'm going to hold off on the Texas Bowl. Texas Tech is a tough one to cap for me because I use per play metrics and the Air Raid offenses never look great on a per play basis. Also, their run defense metrics are a little skewed because they gave up some whopper big plays on the ground in garbage time this year. There's also some nice momentum for the Red Raiders under Joey McGuire, and both Tyler Shough and Behren Morton look to be healthy for this one. TT won't have Tyree Wilson, who will probably be a top 5 draft pick, but other than that, they'll be intact. On the flipside, I'm not aware of any important people being out for Ole Miss, and I certainly won't defy my numbers which give Ole Miss the edge in virtually every category. Passing here.
UTSUX
Old-timer
Let's get this One!!
Eric Antrobus
Pretty much a regular
Switched over to Kansas after reading your post. Knew the game meant more to KU but didn’t realize Arkansas was missing half their team. Crazy they are still favored. Definitely lean Ole Miss, too. Big talent disparity.
ISU74
Pretty much a regular
My reason for taking the points with UNC is the coaching experience advantage that Mack Brown has over Lanning. I believe this is Lanning's first bowl game and I think the experience in prep and motivation matters. With Oregon's defense and the UNC offense which can score, I believe the backdoor will be open on this one.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm just looking forward to a game at Petco, favorite baseball stadium game of the bowl season by far
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
BOL
TahoeLegend
Pretty much a regular
You're in the minority--the vast minority--in picking Kansas, but I'll be surprised it any Big 12 team left wins a bowl game. I'm going against them in every game, although I'm playing all of them but one on teasers. Florida State I'm playing straight up against Oklahoma
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Back door is a risk for sure. Not sure that I’d assume that this UNC staff would have an advantage against anyone, but there’s no doubt Mack has been in a shitload of bowl games.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I can think of a couple Big 12 teams that I’ll be fading along with you, but there’s a couple I haven’t made my mind up on yet. I’ve actually seen quite a few people on Kansas that I give credence to. We’re all going down in flames.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Sorry Eric. One thing is true in bowl season. Sometimes you’re right, and sometimes you’re WAAAAYYYYY off.
Eric Antrobus
Pretty much a regular
Big 12 way worse than I realized. I’m on Kansas too. Will add Ole Miss for more now though.
no worries man. I hope Ole Miss cashes. I’m doing alright overall at least. Best of luck in the other games!
