Bowl Season Write-Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, although bowl season isn't what it used to be, what with all of the opt outs, transfers and coaching carousel chaos. it's still a welcome sight. If your handicapping year was great or good, you get a chance to keep it going. If your season sucked, like mine did(at least in term of what I wrote up) then you get a chance to start over with some sort of clean slate.

Even though I'm not THAT old, I have the viewpoints of an old codger, and I really don't like just about any kid who has a chance at getting drafted opts out. The whole concept has only been around since about 2016, when Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette opted out of their bowl games. It wasn't even a consideration in the years prior to that, but now it's the norm. Were all the players who ever qualified for a bowl in the 75 years or however many years bowl games existed before that a bunch of idiotic stooges for suiting up and playing their asses off in what are now considered meaningless exhibition games? That's the consensus I guess. No sense complaining about it. In many cases, teams look at bowl games as the first game of the following season, so we might as well look at it that way too when appropriate.

The last couple of years I've given my thoughts on each game regardless of whether or not I have a play on it, and I plan to do that again this year. I'll probably have some sort of play on a side in almost every game because I can't resist doing it during bowl season, but I'll make note of the games I am putting down actual full units or more and I'll keep track of those as "official write ups".

I got a bit of a late start due to a flurry of year end work activity , but I'm hoping to be taking in as much of these games as possible.

Plays: Current Record 13-6

Troy +1.5, +3 WIN Very fortunate because they stunk most of the game.
Fresno State -3.5 WIN
BYU +4.5 WIN
Eastern Michigan +4 WIN
Liberty +3.5 WIN
South Alabama -4 LOSS
Air Force +4.5 WIN
San Diego State -6.5 LOSS
Duke -3 WIN
Kansas +2.5 WIN
Oregon -13 LOSS
Florida State -9.5 LOSS
Washington +3 WIN
UCLA -7.5. LOSS
Ohio ML WIN
Iowa ML (-130) WIN
TCU +8 WIN
Georgia -5.5 LOSS
Tulane +2. WIN

Bahamas Bowl: On paper this game looks like it should be a comfortable win for UAB, and frankly I'm going to be looking for reasons to fade the MAC this bowl season(in most cases), but I can't lay this much(UAB -10.5-11 is what you'll find at this point). The Blazers have killed me this year, regardless of what side I was on, and although I think they'll play hard for interim coach Bryan Vincent since the team really wanted him to get the full time gig, their weak rush defense is enough to keeo me off them here. Miami is going to struggle to stop Dewayne McBride like most UAB opponents have this year, but I just don't trust them to cover this number. They've had a rough go on D against the run lately, and Miami backup QB Aveon Smith is a very good runner. Won't take the points here either though because my numbers would indicate a spread closer to 13 than 11. Hate to pass on the first bow game, even if it's on a Friday morning, but I don't think I'll have a dime on this one.
 
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Just read that according to Athlon, Dewayne McBride is not expected to play in the Bahamas Bowl. That makes a difference. Don't think I'll be jumping into that one though, even on that news. Of course, that is by no means any kind of confirmation.
 
1. Cure Bowl: Troy +1.5 v UTSA: Now that this one has flipped over to Troy, I'm going to go ahead and take the points, and I can totally see this game coming down to one point. It's really one of the best bowls on the entire slate, as both squads won their league and finished with an 11-2 record. I was leaning Troy, but didn't want to lay even as small as a 2 point margin, but now that he Trojans are getting the points, I like it. Both of these teams are great, but the Sun Belt is the better league, and there's no doubt that a Troy defense with Carlton Martial will be a huge step up from what UTSA has been used to. Pretty much every defense in CUSA is weak or at least has some aspect of their defense that is likely to hold them back. Other than Texas, Troy will be the best defense that the Roadrunners have faced, and that's by a lot. On the flip side, Troy has seen better defenses than UTSA, who has given up 300+ passing yards to 6 teams this year, including Army, and they'll be catching Troy QB Gunnar Watson off a game in which he averaged 18.7 yards per attempt and averaged almost 9 yards per pass attempt over the course of the season. They also have 2 receivers who can put up big plays all over the place, as Tez and Ra'Jae Johnson have averaged huge numbers per reception, so they will likely have their way with that Roadrunner pass defense. Frank Harris and those receivers are tough to go against, and Troy surprisingly struggles on 3rd down, but the Roadrunners will be facing a formidable opponent here. Troy ranks in the top 15 in yards per play, yards per rush and yards per pass. Ultimately, I think Troy can slow down that UTSA attack, but I'm skeptical that UTSA can corral the Troy offense, good as it has looked lately in the passing game. Any points at all in this game are important, so I'll be taking.
 
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Awesome to get this started.

Always appreciated and even more during bowl season as we'll catch a few tidbits that we likely didn't know.

Good luck tomorrow and right through. You have me fired up for the cure bowl now. I always like watching UTSA as is. Should be a good one!
 
I never did figure out what moved this line all the way to UTSA -3, but I added some additional capital on Troy +3. Looks like it was just "sharp" sentiment. Hopefully this one will come in favor of the dopes.
 
In the Fenway Bowl, I don't know how anyone can figure out how to make a logical play on this one. Both coaches bolted, both teams are on backup QBs, neither of which have been a net positive for their teams, and both teams seem to be candidates to mail this game in. As a result, and because I haven't won a bet involving Louisville in about a decade, I'm not going to do anything with this game. Louisville coaching change is a net positive and Cincinnati's is a net negative, so at least the Cards have that going for them. I can't figure out the Satterfield thing from Cincy's perspective. I can from the Satterfield perspective of course, since every Louisville fan in the country would have personally driven him to Nippert Stadium for the chance to get Jeff Brohm., but I would have thought there would have been better candidates for the Bearcats.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Well, although bowl season isn't what it used to be, what with all of the opt outs, transfers and coaching carousel chaos. it's still a welcome sight. If your handicapping year was great or good, you get a chance to keep it going. If your season sucked, like mine did(at least in term of what I wrote up) then you get a chance to start over with some sort of clean slate.

Even though I'm not THAT old, I have the viewpoints of an old codger, and I really don't like just about any kid who has a chance at getting drafted opts out. The whole concept has only been around since about 2016, when Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fournette opted out of their bowl games. It wasn't even a consideration in the years prior to that, but now it's the norm. Were all the players who ever qualified for a bowl in the 75 years or however many years bowl games existed before that a bunch of idiotic stooges for suiting up and playing their asses off in what are now considered meaningless exhibition games? That's the consensus I guess. No sense complaining about it. In many cases, teams look at bowl games as the first game of the following season, so we might as well look at it that way too when appropriate.

The last couple of years I've given my thoughts on each game regardless of whether or not I have a play on it, and I plan to do that again this year. I'll probably have some sort of play on a side in almost every game because I can't resist doing it during bowl season, but I'll make note of the games I am putting down actual full units or more and I'll keep track of those as "official write ups".

I got a bit of a late start due to a flurry of year end work activity , but I'm hoping to be taking in as much of these games as possible.

Bahamas Bowl: On paper this game looks like it should be a comfortable win for UAB, and frankly I'm going to be looking for reasons to fade the MAC this bowl season(in most cases), but I can't lay this much(UAB -10.5-11 is what you'll find at this point). The Blazers have killed me this year, regardless of what side I was on, and although I think they'll play hard for interim coach Bryan Vincent since the team really wanted him to get the full time gig, their weak rush defense is enough to keeo me off them here. Miami is going to struggle to stop Dewayne McBride like most UAB opponents have this year, but I just don't trust them to cover this number. They've had a rough go on D against the run lately, and Miami backup QB Aveon Smith is a very good runner. Won't take the points here either though because my numbers would indicate a spread closer to 13 than 11. Hate to pass on the first bow game, even if it's on a Friday morning, but I don't think I'll have a dime on this one.
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You were on the right track Brass!
 
LOL Troy. 2 horrific drops on likely 20+ yard plays, and special teams so bad they are perpetually starting inside their own 5, which also led to an unforced safety. Nice start.
 
Well, all we needed for the complete Troy incompetence parade was a shanked punt. It was only a matter of time.
 
The Las Vegas Bowl is a game that I am close to laying the points with the Beavs, but I just can't bring myself to it yet. The line has receded to 8.5 in a lot of spots after a previous meteoric rise after is was announced that Anthony Richardson would be out. IN bowl games, the major fly in the ointment to our handicapping is that it's hard to predict who is going to show up and who isn't. In this game, Oregon State looks like a great candidate to be fully motivated. I'm not aware of any opt outs, they look healthy other than QB Chance Nolan, and Jonathan Smith just got rewarded with a well deserved nice contract. They also get to stay West but play in a favorable spot in las Vegas against a perennial SEC power. All the ingredient for motivation are there. It's the complete opposite for Florida. They won't have Richardson, 4 or 5 other important players are opting out, including the All SEC OT, nd they have a ton of injuries. I think I counted 8 starters out total, and several of their backups are in the portal. Billy Napier mentioned that many of the players that will be suiting up in this game probably won't be on the roster next year, never a good sign. Florida also has a history of laying an egg in situations like this, and I remember because they burned me as a no show in their bowl game against Oklahoma a couple years ago. Oregon State has been solid all year, and they've been good defensively both against the run and the pass. Also, Florida will have almost no shot of stopping Oregon State's run game. Their OL is very good, and Freshman Damien Martinez has been a wrecking ball since they started giving him the ball. The Florida defense can't stop the run and can't get off the field on 3rd down, so the Beavers should hve no issue moving the ball. On defense, they'll be facing 3rd stringer Jack Miller, who actually is a highly touted recruit who transferred from Ohio State, but he's been hurt all year with a thumb injury that he just recently recovered from. Does he have the talent to have a good game? Sure he does, but will he against a solid defense like the Beavers, despite their relative struggles at getting pressure. Having said all that however, the Beavs have never been a good bet as a favorite away from home, and Florida has covered all 4 of their games away from home as a dog. Also, Billy Napier has a stellar record as a dog...I think he's covered something like 17 out of his last 21 in that role. If this line keeps falling I might jump on, since I do think Florida is a candidate to be uninspired against a tough, hard nosed team, but for now I'm gonna wait.
 
2. LA Bowl: Fresno State -3.5 v Washington State: We're going to be saddled with the hook here, but I like this one enough to swallow it. Everybody knows that Fresno has been a completely different team with Jake Haener. They were 7-1 in the games he started and finished, which is in line with preseason expectations. Without him they were somewhere between mediocre and outright bad, and it might seem as though there's still a little residue from that dragging down their overall perception. If these two teams played on a neutral site toward the end of the season. I would have liked Fresno by 4-5 points, and that's when WAZZOU was at full strength. They clearly are not now as both coordinators have left and several of their key players will not be playing. Washington State runs the air raid with Cam Ward, and they've been successful with it, but it typically doesn't turn out well in bowl games. I'm basing that on a few times that I took it on the chin backing Mike Leach led teams in bowls, but in those cases, his teams looked out of sorts and out of synch after long layoffs. Donovan Ollie and DeZhaun Stribling, who combined for over 1100 yards, 8 TDs and almost 100 catches are both in the transfer portal and not playing. Two linebackers who started are transferring as well. On the flip side, there are no such issues for Fresno, and with a game against a PAC 12 opponent and in Sofi Stadium, I think you'll see an inspired effort from them. Haener threw for 300+ in 6 of the 8 games he played, and WAZZOU has given up massive yardage to the good passing teams they've played, most notably Oregon (who piled up 624 yards against them in Pullman) and Washington, whose performance in the Apple Cup might have been the most incredible offensive performance any team had all season, piling up 703 yards in 67 plays. Defensively, Fresno's weakness is stopping the run, but the Cougs don't do much of that. Fresno ranks 15th in yards per play against in the passing game, and although they've faced some shit offense in the Mountain West this year which prop up their numbers, that's still a lofty ranking. Jake Dickert has proven to be a resourceful coach, but he's been complaining pretty vehemently about the transfer portal and other teams tampering with his guys, so he knows he's behind the 8 ball a bit and those losses are going to hurt. I like the Bulldogs here.
 
I'm taking a pass on the Lending Tree Bowl down in Mobile, as I'm sure many people are. Southern Miss looks like the better team, but Rice is pretty schizophrenic, capable of losing in blowout fashion to Charlotte one week and then beating UAB the next. Also, Southern Miss was not in a role like this very often, so I don't know that I trust them. I also wouldn't play Rice here because there's no telling who is going to suit up at quarterback for them since usual starter TJ McMahon looks like he won't play. If it's Wiley Green, he can't throw the ball downfield, and if it's AJ Padgett, he can stretch the field but throws so many incompletions that their offense bogs down, and that's terrible news for a team with a defense as bad as Rice's tends to be. Rice also led the nation in turnovers, and Southern Miss ranked high in both sacks and takeaways so it's likely that Rice will give it to them at least 2 and probably 3+ times. If you play Southern Miss you have to rely on covering a TD with an offense that ranks 112th in yards per play and 117th in yards per rush. No thanks with either of these sides for me. ,
 
Br@ssknux said:
In the Fenway Bowl, I don't know how anyone can figure out how to make a logical play on this one. Both coaches bolted, both teams are on backup QBs, neither of which have been a net positive for their teams, and both teams seem to be candidates to mail this game in. As a result, and because I haven't won a bet involving Louisville in about a decade, I'm not going to do anything with this game. Louisville coaching change is a net positive and Cincinnati's is a net negative, so at least the Cards have that going for them. I can't figure out the Satterfield thing from Cincy's perspective. I can from the Satterfield perspective of course, since every Louisville fan in the country would have personally driven him to Nippert Stadium for the chance to get Jeff Brohm., but I would have thought there would have been better candidates for the Bearcats.
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Is Bryant out for Cinni this is what i have found
Cincinnati quarterback Ben Bryant has thrown for 2,731 yards, 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Cunningham definately ouyt
 
Br@ssknux said:
In the Fenway Bowl, I don't know how anyone can figure out how to make a logical play on this one. Both coaches bolted, both teams are on backup QBs, neither of which have been a net positive for their teams, and both teams seem to be candidates to mail this game in. As a result, and because I haven't won a bet involving Louisville in about a decade, I'm not going to do anything with this game. Louisville coaching change is a net positive and Cincinnati's is a net negative, so at least the Cards have that going for them. I can't figure out the Satterfield thing from Cincy's perspective. I can from the Satterfield perspective of course, since every Louisville fan in the country would have personally driven him to Nippert Stadium for the chance to get Jeff Brohm., but I would have thought there would have been better candidates for the Bearcats.
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What you think about the under 21.5 first half , weather should be cold windy and Possible snow just don’t see how either these teams score to much , but I guess there is a chance both coaches throw the playbook out and let ‘em play . Like you said best bet is staying far away from this game …love your write ups good luck tommorrow and rest of the bowl season .
 
3. New Mexico Bowl: BYU +4 v SMU: Neither of these teams' defenses are good at anything. BYU is ranked 107th in yards per play, 103rd against the run and 100th against the pass. SMU is worse, checking in at 121st in yards per play, 122nd in yards per rush and 101st against the pass. The teams match up very similarly but this line has drifted up to 4 because BYU QB Jarren Hall is out with an ankle injury. BYU's backup is in the portal, so they'll be playing 3rd string QB Cade Fennegan. Fennegan has playing in only one game a the college level, strangely enough against BYU when he was playing for Boise State. It was a nondescript performance and Boise was blown out in the game, so not much can be gleaned from that one. SMU, to be fair will have a major edge in that position as Tanner Moredecai has had a great couple of years , but there is a lot more to consider than just how the QBs throw it. BYU has a very good offensive line and they'll be ready to run the ball down SMU's throat, and they should be able to with the performances the Mustang defense has been mustering up. If you look at BYU's last game at Stanford, they an at will and only threw it 11 times the entire game with Hall. That tells me that if they can spend the whole day running the ball they will. SMU will also be handicapped by the absence of WR Rache Rice, who caught 96 balls this year, 3 times as many as anyone else on the squad. In addition, this is a first go around for Rhett Lashley as it relates to bowl prep, and he has admittedly been busier than a one armed paper hanger lately trying to recruit and get his name out there as a viable transfer destination. Ultimately, I trust the maturity of the BYU locker room and coaches more than I do Lashlee and company, who might be a little in over his head when it comes to the administrative functions of the job, and I think the 11th ranked Cougar rush attack will be more than able to run wild on this terrible SMU rush defense. As such, I'll take the significantamount of points here.
 
Longhorns45 said:
What you think about the under 21.5 first half , weather should be cold windy and Possible snow just don’t see how either these teams score to much , but I guess there is a chance both coaches throw the playbook out and let ‘em play . Like you said best bet is staying far away from this game …love your write ups good luck tommorrow and rest of the bowl season .
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Thanks Longhorn. I see a lot of people on the under who are active in playing totals. I am not, as I've never had any luck (or competence) when i bet them. I think your logic is sound though. Both of the QBs are problematic and the weather won't help scoring. Can't argue with you.
 
While SMU hasn't played in a bowl for a couple years, I think one intangible angle in BYU's corner would be the fact they lost last year in the Independence Bowl. If it matters, I kind of like teams to find motivation in that. These teams have both been all over the map with their play. Not often is BYU dogged to a mid-level group of 5 type.

Rice has 96 catches. Their #2, #3, #4 and #5 (also out) combine for 98 catches.
 
Br@ssknux said:
The Las Vegas Bowl is a game that I am close to laying the points with the Beavs, but I just can't bring myself to it yet. The line has receded to 8.5 in a lot of spots after a previous meteoric rise after is was announced that Anthony Richardson would be out. IN bowl games, the major fly in the ointment to our handicapping is that it's hard to predict who is going to show up and who isn't. In this game, Oregon State looks like a great candidate to be fully motivated. I'm not aware of any opt outs, they look healthy other than QB Chance Nolan, and Jonathan Smith just got rewarded with a well deserved nice contract. They also get to stay West but play in a favorable spot in las Vegas against a perennial SEC power. All the ingredient for motivation are there. It's the complete opposite for Florida. They won't have Richardson, 4 or 5 other important players are opting out, including the All SEC OT, nd they have a ton of injuries. I think I counted 8 starters out total, and several of their backups are in the portal. Billy Napier mentioned that many of the players that will be suiting up in this game probably won't be on the roster next year, never a good sign. Florida also has a history of laying an egg in situations like this, and I remember because they burned me as a no show in their bowl game against Oklahoma a couple years ago. Oregon State has been solid all year, and they've been good defensively both against the run and the pass. Also, Florida will have almost no shot of stopping Oregon State's run game. Their OL is very good, and Freshman Damien Martinez has been a wrecking ball since they started giving him the ball. The Florida defense can't stop the run and can't get off the field on 3rd down, so the Beavers should hve no issue moving the ball. On defense, they'll be facing 3rd stringer Jack Miller, who actually is a highly touted recruit who transferred from Ohio State, but he's been hurt all year with a thumb injury that he just recently recovered from. Does he have the talent to have a good game? Sure he does, but will he against a solid defense like the Beavers, despite their relative struggles at getting pressure. Having said all that however, the Beavs have never been a good bet as a favorite away from home, and Florida has covered all 4 of their games away from home as a dog. Also, Billy Napier has a stellar record as a dog...I think he's covered something like 17 out of his last 21 in that role. If this line keeps falling I might jump on, since I do think Florida is a candidate to be uninspired against a tough, hard nosed team, but for now I'm gonna wait.
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Def with ya on the " who wants to be there theory". In fact, seeing as how my job is to totally suck come bowl season, I often rely strictly on that theory. Full proof it is not, but what is. Does Fla circle the wagons? Only if I'm on Beav ha!
 
Not going to have any recommendations on the Frisco Bowl. The line has now risen to Boise -11.5, and I just don't want to lay that much, although I would say if both of these teams play to their potential, Boise probably covers that. The Mean Green defense is highly susceptible to giving up huge yardage on the ground, and especially now that Taylen Green is in there at QB, this Boise offense is certainly capable of piling up the yards here. When UNT has played good rushing offenses they've been gashed, and the best example might be Boise's Mountain West brethren UNLV who lambasted North Texas for 365 yards on 51 carries . George Holani has been hot lately and like I said, Green is explosive as a running QB, and there's a great chance the Mean Green will be flummoxed by him. Having said that, if you won 7 games despite a bad defense, you must have an offense that can do some things, and that's the case with the mean Green. They are balanced and they've had a lot of success, ranking in the top 25% in just about every offensive category. Boise ranks highly on defense, but they might be the most fortunate defense in the country as it relates to the offenses they've played and when they played them. Here's who they've played well against defensively: UT Martin, San Diego State with the anemic Burmeister at QB, Fresno(the first time) with Logan Fife, Air Force, Colorado State, Nevada and Wyoming with a 4th string QB who went 3-16 with 3 picks. (And they still got run over by the Cowboys to the tune of 278 rushing yards at 8.7 a carry and snuck a 3 point win). The only (somewhat)good offenses they played were Oregon State (470 yards), BYU (532 yards) and Utah State (460 yards) and Utah State had a backup QB in that game too. So you can see that the Boise defense might be a little bit of a paper tiger, and UNT might be the best offense they've played. All this amounts to me having very little faith in both teams. I might drop a few bucks on UNT, but if I do that, Green will probably have 500 combined yards. Some of you totals players might think OVER, but if you take my advice, consider yourself warned for a 14-13 final with 11 turnovers.
 
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cogenman said:
Great write-ups with your info, especially with teams playing with players out. Good shit man.
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Thanks Cogenman.
s--k said:
While SMU hasn't played in a bowl for a couple years, I think one intangible angle in BYU's corner would be the fact they lost last year in the Independence Bowl. If it matters, I kind of like teams to find motivation in that. These teams have both been all over the map with their play. Not often is BYU dogged to a mid-level group of 5 type.

Rice has 96 catches. Their #2, #3, #4 and #5 (also out) combine for 98 catches.
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Good points. Always appreciate your insights S--K.
 
Not gonna be recommending much on the Myrtle Beach Bowl, although I have to admit, if you asked me a couple weeks ago who I'd be likely to have a play on, one of them would have been UConn. As a matter of fact, it was my intention to do so, especially if they were getting double digits from a relatively non-descript opponent. And here we are, with the Huskies getting 10.5 from Marshall, with pretty much all of those boxes checked. "Ok, jackass", you might say. "Why the change of heart?" First of all, I'm not going to fade UConn, I'm just backing off on the enthusiastic sprint to the window to play them. Looking much more closely at this game, the only real positive I can find in this matchup for UConn is that I am sold that they will be 100% motivated to play in the game, and I would reasonably expect them to be more motivated than their opponent. Other than that, there's not much evidence to support a UConn ticket. They'll be lining up against a defense that ranks high everywhere you look, and one that has been dynamite layely, Marshall also has been as good offensively the past couple of weeks as they have been all year, especially in the running game, as Rasheem Ali finally came back and teamed up with Khalan Leborn to form a formidable 1-2 punch in the backfield. The Herd went from an offensive lightweight to a squad averaging more than 500 yards in the two games Ali played. UConn competed well on defense late in the year, but they ranked 89th against the run, so they might be behind the 8 ball. Also, when you look at UConn's schedule, there really isn't an overly impressive win in the current context. At the time, a win over Fresno looked good, but that was with Logan Fife at QB, and was followed up with several more stinkers for the Bulldogs. The other wins were against Central Connecticut State, the FBS dregs(FIU and UMass) BC and a Liberty team that is capable of losing to anyone(note the season finale 49-14 loss at home to New Mexico State). Not much to hang your hat on there. In addition, as I've mentioned, Marshall is one of the best group of 5 defenses out there. On paper, the UConn offense against the Marshall defense is an absolute mismatch. UConn is 130th in 3rd down conversions while Marshall is #1 in the country, so expecting UConn to sustain any long drives is delusional, and UConn has no explosive players on offense. As a result, it's hard to map out how they'll score. UConn's defense has been feisty, but they've mostly just found ways to force FGs. I'm not saying they can't keep doing that, but the most recent version of the Marshall offense makes that a much less likely proposition. I'm not interested in laying it either, because motivation is so important in these bowls, but if someone made me play it, I'd be leaning toward Marshall.
 
Seems like one of those games @Br@ssknux that will see UConn pulling out all the gadgets for me. Don't have team totals but be shocked if UConn didn't hit theirs.
 
4. Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Eastern Michigan +4(-114) v San Jose State: Earlier in the season, San Jose State looked like the odds on favorite to win the Mountain West, as they served as a kind of last man standing after the rest of the preseason favorites went through bad stretches. At the same time, the Spartans strung together 3 dominant wins over what at the time appeared to be decent opponents: Western Michigan, UNLV and Wyoming. However, after dropping a head scratcher to the Jake Haener-less Fresno State Bulldogs, they had to endure the tragic death of teammate towards the end of October and frankly, the Spartans have not been the same since. The snuck past Nevada and Colorado State as big favorites but looked bad doing it, then were outgained severely in their next two against San Diego State and Utah State. The finished 7-4, but the momentum has been lost for awhile now. In this bowl, they draw the Eastern Michigan Eagles who went 8-4, making this season on of the best in EMU history. Whatever good seasons the Eagles have had have ben authored by Chris Creighton, who is now in his 9th season at the helm. As ususal, EMU has been great on the road, going 5-1 including nice wins at Arizona State and Kent State . Since 2016, EMU is 23-7 ATS as a dog in away games under Creighton, and they are 3-1 ATS in bowls. On paper, these two teams are extremely evenly matched but EMU has won 4 out of 5 with the only loss being a 3 point loss to Toledo. Situationally, EMU is in their comfort zone as a dog, and I think they are a much better bet to be the more motivated team as they are on a roll, and they are much more used to the weather conditions that will be present in Boise than the California kids that make up the roster of SJSU will. Given all of that, I think it's prudent to take more than a FG in what appears to be a pretty evenly matched game when i think there are a lot of intangibles pointing in EMU's direction.
 
5. Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty +3.5 v Toledo: Throughout the season, and really over the past couple of seasons, Liberty has been a mixed bag, but their unpredictability has become predictable. They play very well against name programs and when they are dogged, but at the same time, at least under Hugh Freeze the past couple of seasons, the lay eggs against weaker competition. Consider: The lost by a point at Wake(when Wake was ranked in the top15), they blew out BYU with their 3rd string QB, they beat Arkansas on the road, and they won games against bowl teams Southern Miss and UAB. At the same time, they beat Gardner Webb by 1, lost outright as a TD favorite against UConn and were completely embarrassed and appeared unprepared in the finale against a terrible New Mexico State team. They are now without Hugh Freeze, who took the Auburn job, and the reports of that move came out the morning of the NMSU game, so there is some bit of explanation for that stinker. Their interim is the DC, so they'll have some stability for this game, and there are good vibes in the program because Coastal Carolina coach Jamey Chadwell, who many had on power 5 lists, took the job, a universally praised hire. On paper, Liberty's defense was very solid, and although they will be missing a couple key pieces due to the transfer portal, they have depth to overcome those losses. They should be able to match up well with Toledo. Offensively, they lost their leading rusher to injury, but this is as healthy as they've been in awhile at QB, as they'll have all 3 of their QBs available after starter Brewer and backup Salter both missed most of the season. The Liberty defense is very good both on 3rd down(16th) and sack rate(5th), so the Toledo offense will have their work cut out for them. Also, I think these players have a chip on their shoulder coming off that embarrassing loss to New Mexico State, and they are again in their element as a dog, where they have thrived (12-4 in their last 16 in that role.) On the flip side, Toledo makes a habit of losing outright as a favorite, having done that 9 times by an average of 12 points over the past 2 years. I think we are getting some line value here with the Flames as a result of that horrific loss to New Mexico State only 2 weeks ago. If the real Liberty shows up, I think they win this game outright, so I'll definitely take the FG+.
 
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force +4.5 v Baylor: This is a bit out of chronological order, but I'm seeing this line drop, so I'm getting this one in here now. I grabbed Air Force +6.5 soon after the line came out, but I think I would take it all the way down to 4. It's 4.5 now but it's come down by a full point or two in just the last couple of days. This is probably a predictable play for any of you who are familiar with my tendencies. If you give me a service academy getting points, I'm pretty much going to jump on it, and this situation is easily good enough to bite off on here. There is never any question about motivation and execution for a service academy team in a bowl. They will be motivated and they'll be schooled on the tendencies of the opponent. Although it seems like Baylor should have had a lot of time to prepare for the Falcons, they really haven't, because the game came out only 2 weeks ago and time is limited for coaching staffs that need to recruit and dive into the transfer portal in addition to holding bowl practices, and although I'm a big fan of Dave Aranda, Baylor fired their DC, so there probably hasn't been a ton of preparation for this one. Also, Baylor has been vulnerable in some advanced metrics in their run defense, especially up the middle, which is precisely where 1,000 yard fullback Brad Roberts makes his money, and the Air Force defense has been very good all year, ranking 14th in yards per play, 19th against the run , 11th on 3rd down and 17th in sacks. That doesn't bode well for a Baylor offense that has been shaky with Blake Shapen in the back half of the season. Baylor was in the Sugar Bowl last year, and now they barely qualified for a bowl and draw Air Force as a 6-6 team. If Aranda can get his team up for this one, kudos will be in order because it doesn't seem to be a dream matchup for the Bears.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
6. Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force +4.5 v Baylor: This is a bit out of chronological order, but I'm seeing this line drop, so I'm getting this one in here now. I grabbed Air Force +6.5 soon after the line came out, but I think I would take it all the way down to 4. It's 4.5 now but it's come down by a full point or two in just the last couple of days. This is probably a predictable play for any of you who are familiar with my tendencies. If you give me a service academy getting points, I'm pretty much going to jump on it, and this situation is easily good enough to bite off on here. There is never any question about motivation and execution for a service academy team in a bowl. They will be motivated and they'll be schooled on the tendencies of the opponent. Although it seems like Baylor should have had a lot of time to prepare for the Falcons, they really haven't, because the game came out only 2 weeks ago and time is limited for coaching staffs that need to recruit and dive into the transfer portal in addition to holding bowl practices, and although I'm a big fan of Dave Aranda, Baylor fired their DC, so there probably hasn't been a ton of preparation for this one. Also, Baylor has been vulnerable in some advanced metrics in their run defense, especially up the middle, which is precisely where 1,000 yard fullback Brad Roberts makes his money, and the Air Force defense has been very good all year, ranking 14th in yards per play, 19th against the run , 11th on 3rd down and 17th in sacks. That doesn't bode well for a Baylor offense that has been shaky with Blake Shapen in the back half of the season. Baylor was in the Sugar Bowl last year, and now they barely qualified for a bowl and draw Air Force as a 6-6 team. If Aranda can get his team up for this one, kudos will be in order because it doesn't seem to be a dream matchup for the Bears.
Click to expand...
This is going to be a cold-weather game, which should benefit AFA. Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds. Morning high of 42F with temps falling sharply to near 20 by game time. Winds NNW at 25 to 35 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.
 
M.W. said:
This is going to be a cold-weather game, which should benefit AFA. Partly cloudy skies with gusty winds. Morning high of 42F with temps falling sharply to near 20 by game time. Winds NNW at 25 to 35 mph. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.
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Good info MW thanks. Seems like Texas is getting hit with upper Midwest type weather more and more.
 
7. New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama -4 v Western Kentucky: I've been waiting for this line to drop a little more, but at this point, I'll be playing the Jaguars regardless, so I might as well get it on paper now. This line was closer to 8 and was rising when WKU QB Austin Reed was in the portal and seemingly on his way to Louisville, but one thing led to another, a couple Bowling Green, KY business owners got some cash together and voila, Reed is back with the Hilltoppers and totally engaged to bring the New Orleans Bowl trophy home! As a result the line dropped to around 4.5, and it's had some additional downward pressure since. I think it has a chance to keep going down, as WKU has been a snazzy offense and recreational bettors might like to take the points with them. I don't want anyone to think a fade of WKU here is a lack of respect for the seaon they've had...quite the contrary as I've cashed some tickets with the Hilltoppers this year. This is a play on a South Alabama team that frankly hasn't gotten it's due for a fantastic season. The Jags are 10-2, 7-1 in the Sun Belt, with their only losses being a 1 point loss at UCLA in Spetmber and a 10-6 loss at Troy in a game in which they held the Trojans to 264 yards. Those two games are also the only games in which they were outgained...by a grand total of 28 yards. Defensively, they have been great in pretty much every category all year, ranking 20th in overall yards per play, 8th in yards per rush allowed, 19th in yards per pass attempt and 14th on 3rd down. Offensively, they were extremely balanced. QB Carter Bradley had a 25/10 ratio and averaged 8+ yards per attempt, they had a 1,000 yard rusher in former FSU Seminole LaDamian Webb and they had three 700 yard receivers. One of them, Devin Voisin is questionable for this one, but the others 2 (Jalen Lane and Caulin Lacy) will be ready to go. WKU, as I mentioned, was also solid this year and their defense is no pushover, but even at full strength, this is still an 8-5 CUSA team. If I'm going to back an 8-5 CUSA team against a Sun Belt team with South Alabama's credentials, I'm gonna want more than 4. Also, WKU has all kinds of guys that are not going to be playing in this one. Reed will be without 2 OL starters, his #2 receiver Daewood Davis and both of the tight ends that got most of the action. Defensively, they'll be without both starting corners, a starting linebacker and 2 of their top 4 safeties. Most of these guys are in the transfer portal, so I'm assuming they won't be playing. WR Davis and one of the starting corners declared for the draft, so they are out. On the flip side, I am not aware of any players that will be missing for South Alabama. This team was solid as a rock all year, and of their 10 wins, only one came by less than 4. WKU is garnering a lot of respect due to the return of Reed and their flashy offense, but South Alabama is definitely the better team in my opinion, and it appears that they'll be at full strength while the Hilltoppers will obviously not be able to say the same.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. New Orleans Bowl: South Alabama -4 v Western Kentucky: I've been waiting for this line to drop a little more, but at this point, I'll be playing the Jaguars regardless, so I might as well get it on paper now. This line was closer to 8 and was rising when WKU QB Austin Reed was in the portal and seemingly on his way to Louisville, but one thing led to another, a couple Bowling Green, KY business owners got some cash together and voila, Reed is back with the Hilltoppers and totally engaged to bring the New Orleans Bowl trophy home! As a result the line dropped to around 4.5, and it's had some additional downward pressure since. I think it has a chance to keep going down, as WKU has been a snazzy offense and recreational bettors might like to take the points with them. I don't want anyone to think a fade of WKU here is a lack of respect for the seaon they've had...quite the contrary as I've cashed some tickets with the Hilltoppers this year. This is a play on a South Alabama team that frankly hasn't gotten it's due for a fantastic season. The Jags are 10-2, 7-1 in the Sun Belt, with their only losses being a 1 point loss at UCLA in Spetmber and a 10-6 loss at Troy in a game in which they held the Trojans to 264 yards. Those two games are also the only games in which they were outgained...by a grand total of 28 yards. Defensively, they have been great in pretty much every category all year, ranking 20th in overall yards per play, 8th in yards per rush allowed, 19th in yards per pass attempt and 14th on 3rd down. Offensively, they were extremely balanced. QB Carter Bradley had a 25/10 ratio and averaged 8+ yards per attempt, they had a 1,000 yard rusher in former FSU Seminole LaDamian Webb and they had three 700 yard receivers. One of them, Devin Voisin is questionable for this one, but the others 2 (Jalen Lane and Caulin Lacy) will be ready to go. WKU, as I mentioned, was also solid this year and their defense is no pushover, but even at full strength, this is still an 8-5 CUSA team. If I'm going to back an 8-5 CUSA team against a Sun Belt team with South Alabama's credentials, I'm gonna want more than 4. Also, WKU has all kinds of guys that are not going to be playing in this one. Reed will be without 2 OL starters, his #2 receiver Daewood Davis and both of the tight ends that got most of the action. Defensively, they'll be without both starting corners, a starting linebacker and 2 of their top 4 safeties. Most of these guys are in the transfer portal, so I'm assuming they won't be playing. WR Davis and one of the starting corners declared for the draft, so they are out. On the flip side, I am not aware of any players that will be missing for South Alabama. This team was solid as a rock all year, and of their 10 wins, only one came by less than 4. WKU is garnering a lot of respect due to the return of Reed and their flashy offense, but South Alabama is definitely the better team in my opinion, and it appears that they'll be at full strength while the Hilltoppers will obviously not be able to say the same.
Click to expand...
No opt outs - and I believe no one sitting out for injury for SBama. All in to try and get their first bowl win
 
Did anyone catch the postgame interviews after that game last night?

I would have asked Kade Wommack: " Hi Coach. Were you aware that it's legal for the opposing team to attempt a forward pass? I ask because it appeared as though your players were completely unaware of the concept."

In all seriousness, bowl season will bring games like that, ones that make us look like complete morons. South Alabama had a great year, and played some very good defense against some good teams, but yikes, that was some terrible defense on display last night.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Did anyone catch the postgame interviews after that game last night?

I would have asked Kade Wommack: " Hi Coach. Were you aware that it's legal for the opposing team to attempt a forward pass? I ask because it appeared as though your players were completely unaware of the concept."

In all seriousness, bowl season will bring games like that, ones that make us look like complete morons. South Alabama had a great year, and played some very good defense against some good teams, but yikes, that was some terrible defense on display last night.
Click to expand...

And the next question would be, "coach, are your aware the offense does not have to stand around and wait for you to send in a call and get your defense lined up?"
 
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