Bowl Season (Not Playoffs) Discussion Thread

UTSA beat North Texas handily. You may mean UTEP? Yes, UTEP challenges them a good bit.
 
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. – North Carolina’s Dyami Brown announced his decision to forgo his senior season and enter the NFL Draft on Monday morning. The junior wide receiver will also opt out of the Capital One Orange Bowl, a UNC official confirmed. The 13th-ranked Tar Heels will play No. 5 Texas A&M in Miami Gardens on Jan. 2.
 
Inspekdah said:
NT had to rally to beat UTSA. Trailed by DD. They’re awful and if they stop App State I would be shocked. I like teams who can run the ball effectively to cover large spreads late and I assume that to be the case here.
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We sometimes forget how some of these Bowl teams don't belong. App St might win by 40
 
s--k said:
@twinkie13 what would your opinion be for Tulane to be playing in upper 30 degree temps in Boise Tuesday. Think it will be partly sunny, but like 37 in early afternoon out there.
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That’s cold for the boys for sure. I do agree with pretty much everything else you said.
I’d have a Tulane ticket
 
carolinablue said:
Chazz also about to opt out but hasn’t announced it publicly yet...
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North Carolina star linebacker Chazz Surratt has decided to forego the Orange Bowl and will enter the 2021 NFL Draft. Surratt finished his 11-game 2020 season with 91 total tackles, 7.5 tackles-for-loss, and six sacks. He added one interception, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery, and three pass breakups.
 
Traditionally don't faves tend to do well in the lesser bowls, dogs later on? Maybe I've got that back-asswards though.
 
Zeke said:
Traditionally don't faves tend to do well in the lesser bowls, dogs later on? Maybe I've got that back-asswards though.
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Several years ago it was the opposite like clock work. Now I believe its early favorites with dogs coming in bunches at some point. Live ingame is the way to go. Its all about motivation and matchups
 
I keep hearing a lot about the high powered North Texas O, but that has been inflated by a couple games over 700+ yards (Houston Baptist and MTSU). And as has already been stated a couple players who contributed to those numbers won't play here.

I think I am going to play App State 1st H and that might be all for the side. Laying over 3 TDs is just not what I'm into. I may take a little game Under.

Have on App State radio pregame. As far as I know App has not had any players opt out for this bowl. They had a few before the season, but don't think any now. They have a ton of talented players that should be able to win the individual matchups vs North Texas.
 
That makes their #1 QB (although #2 has played a lot), their record breaking WR, their #2 receiver (#1 and #2 receivers combined for 23 of team 25 TD receptions!), and their #1 RB (although their #2 and #3 RBs are solid).
 
EL CAPO said:
yeah they struggled scoring against hawaii for sakes. Tulane needs a new DC. With a strong dline just play deep coverage and let nevada run which they can't do.

I watched some of san jose nevada - and several of these long san jose runs the rb just tractored over defenders who seemed to be in position. I don't think Nevada wants to deal with smashmouth, and Tulane is a horrible matchup for that.
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not arguing your other points but I often throw out the results from games where kids travel down to play Hawaii.
 
Okie lite vs Miami? We have the tv show “the biggest loser”, we should call this game “the biggest quitter” bowl!! Okie lite had all kinds of kids not give a shit all year. Canes stopped caring the minute unc punched them in the mouth! Jfc how you cap this game??
 
Oh man, how disappointing to see San Jose st only getting to play ball st?? Wtf ever. These kids should have gotten a chance to play a power 5!!!

speaking of coastal and cincy, my sjst squad deserves to be mentioned in the same breath imo!
 
Memphis has lost 5 straight bowl games through two different coaching staffs! This is Silverfield's first.
4 of those 5 were vs P5 opponents and the other was vs the Jeff Brohm loaded WKU 2016 team (Memphis 7pt dog)

FAU is 4-0 all time in bowls, including 2017 and 2019 wins under Lane Kiffin when they won 102-31 combined.
I don't think this FAU O will approach the points those teams scored (FAU avg only 20ppg this year)
 
Hawaii leading RB rusher Miles Reed entered transfer portal. Reed was #2 behind the QB in rushing (346y 4.2) and was the #1 rusher last year (908y 5.2). He joins 6 others in the portal but none of those players matter.
 
WVU
Darius Stills declares for draft WILL play in bowl.
Dante Stills says he is returning next year...assuming he is playing in bowl next to his brother.
Tony Fields declares for draft WILL NOT play in bowl.
 
Houston LB Grant Stuard and DE Payton Turner opts out of bowl game.
Those are the only two position player Houston had on the All-AAC Team (Stuard 1st tm, Turner 2nd tm)
 
Texas will have just ONE of their 7 captains for the bowl game!

safety Caden Sterns - opt out (old news)
safety Chris Brown - opt out (new 12/10)
defensive tackle Ta’Quon Graham - opt out (new 12/12)
linebacker/end Joseph Ossai - opt out (new 12/14)

center Derek Kerstetter - injured at K State
offensive tackle Samuel Cosmi - opt out (old news)
running back - Keaontay Ingram - injured/transfer?

Jerrin Thompson looks good as a replacement at one safety spot.
Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson at RB make Ingram's loss next to meaningless.
Jake Majors at C and Andrej Karic at LT are good replacements on OL, but Horns could be in trouble if they lose anyone there to covid.

Covid players aren't being named.

“We’re still dealing with some COVID issues ourselves,” Herman said. “We’ve got a couple players that will not be able to play. We’ve got a couple players that we’ll get back later in the week of practice. We’ve got a couple players we hope to get back Monday or Tuesday.”

Three players tested positive the day after the team returned from Manhattan and six more players subsequently tested positive in the following days, forcing a pause in all team activities and eventually resulting in the cancellation of the regular-season finale against Kansas. Texas is not expected to announce which players will be out against Colorado until gameday.
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www.burntorangenation.com

Alamo Bowl will provide glimpse into the future for depleted Texas team

In addition to all the opt outs, the Longhorns will also be without several players who have COVID-19.
www.burntorangenation.com www.burntorangenation.com
 
Oklahoma
RB TJ Pledger - transfer portal - not a big deal with Stevenson back. Finishes with 451 yards, was leading rusher before Stevenson.
QB Tanner Mordecai - transfer portal
CB Tre Brown - opts out

Brown ends his career with 141 tackles and four interceptions, including three this season. Brown also had two kickoff returns that flipped the field at critical moments against Iowa State on Saturday. Brown registered big plays in the past three Big 12 title contests. In 2018, he had a game-changing safety in the win over Texas. In 2019, his touchdown-saving tackle against Baylor allowed the Sooners to move the game into overtime during a victory. In Saturday’s triumph over Iowa State, he ended the Cyclones’ threat with a game-winning interception.
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Florida Kyle Pitts opt out
 
Miami DEs Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche opt outs. Diaz says he doesn't expect anyone else to opt out "at this point".
Phillips and Roche combined for 12.5 sacks. The remaining DL players have just 5 among all players.

Oklahoma State
CB Rhodarius Williams opt out (new 12/14)(2nd Tm Big Xll, allowed just 9 receptions this year, brother of Greedy Williams)
TE Jelani Woods transfer (underutilized only caught 8-129-TD this season)
RB Chuba Hubbard and OL Teven Jenkins (old news)

Receiver Tylan Wallace missed the regular-season finale against Baylor and Gundy said he hopes Wallace will be available for the bowl game but hasn’t had that discussion with him.
“I’m hoping we’ll know something by (Monday) on his situation,” Gundy said. “I feel like he’s relatively healthy in my opinion. We’ll know more about that tomorrow. And then it’s just a matter of whether he decides to play in the game.”
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I don't know how you can do anything but look at a 2H play or go in-game with any of these prelim bowls. It's a crap shoot anyway to see who is really interested. Then you add COVID and opt outs....Shit.

Army would seem to be one given that's interested. Others?
 
Frank Costanza said:
Army would seem to be one given that's interested. Others?
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You kind of just have to read the tea leaves. Does a team have something to prove? Might they be disappointed at their game or opponent? What happened in last year's game? How long has it been since they had a bowl? Was simply going to or winning a bowl game a preseason goal? What players that could opt out, haven't and how does that impact the performance? Does said team have a history of underachieving or disappointing this year, or have they overachieved and surprised?

Just have to dig in a little and form an opinion. Like trying to pick winners, sometimes you'll get the motivation right and sometimes you'll miss.

We have an added advantage this year in that what, like 20 teams opted out of bowls. So one might assume the ones actually playing in the bowls do indeed want to be there. However, I would question some of the teams with really bad records that got bumped up. South Carolina being a prime example.
 
I'm actually starting to back off my Tulane position and starting to feel more of a Nevada lean.

Tulane's leading WR is gametime decision. Tulane QB is frosh. Weather will be cold. Nevada feels like they have something to prove. Tulane's best defender, DE P Johnson is out. Their other super DE Sample is gametime decision. Tulane secondary is poor, what impact will new defensive philosophy have after firing DC. Will it be better?
 
s--k said:
I'm actually starting to back off my Tulane position and starting to feel more of a Nevada lean.

Tulane's leading WR is gametime decision. Tulane QB is frosh. Weather will be cold. Nevada feels like they have something to prove. Tulane's best defender, DE P Johnson is out. Their other super DE Sample is gametime decision. Tulane secondary is poor, what impact will new defensive philosophy have after firing DC. Will it be better?
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Nevada should be able to limit Tulane's rushing attack...

I don't like Tulane's ability to limit Nevada's air attack.
 
UCF Overs always a good bet. Both teams are strong against the run. Expect a lot of big plays, short on time drives, and scoring.
 
My opinion is BYU was the most overrated teams this year. Talk me off UCF large wager please
 
twinkie13 said:
I already grabbed 7

ML worth a stab?
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Think I remember a stat in the past that the spread doesn't come into play too much in the bowl season. If dogs cover, they typically win SU. And same for favorites. They usually cover if they win
 
Ryno14 said:
Think I remember a stat in the past that the spread doesn't come into play too much in the bowl season. If dogs cover, they typically win SU. And same for favorites. They usually cover if they win
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That sounds like a @M.W. special angle research project.

My memory as well, pick the straight up winner. Even the bigger spreads, when I looked at it through past years it is amazing how many times the straight up winner covers and the spread doesn't matter and a lot of dogs win in bowls. Every dog I bet I think will have a shot at the win.
 
s--k said:
That sounds like a @M.W. special angle research project.

My memory as well, pick the straight up winner. Even the bigger spreads, when I looked at it through past years it is amazing how many times the straight up winner covers and the spread doesn't matter and a lot of dogs win in bowls. Every dog I bet I think will have a shot at the win.
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Bowl favorites are 630-356-5 (63.9%) straight up, 474-499-18 (48.7%) ATS, average line is -5.6.
 
M.W. said:
Bowl favorites are 630-356-5 (63.9%) straight up, 474-499-18 (48.7%) ATS, average line is -5.6.
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I don't know if you are working from databases or if you have this kind of answer:

What is the straight up winner ATS in bowl games vs regular season?
What are underdogs straight up records in bowl games vs regular season?
 
s--k said:
I don't know if you are working from databases or if you have this kind of answer:

What is the straight up winner ATS in bowl games vs regular season?
What are underdogs straight up records in bowl games vs regular season?
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SU winner from 1980 to date in regular season:

19046-6707-523 (74.0%)


SU winner from 1980 to date in bowl games:

854-138-18 (86.1%)
 
Inspekdah mentioned it ingame thread, this Memphis team is just not who you want to lay points with. In fact they are 0-4 vs FBS as a favorite this year ATS! Only cover was vs SFA which they failed to cover the 1st H line as I recall, but ended up blowing them out in the 2nd H. That is their only favorite cover on the year!

Problem is...they are playing FAU who is really bad. If anyone watched their last game vs University of Southern Miss who is also really bad this year, you got to see how bad FAU actually is.

So what happens here? This is the first time that Memphis has the benefit of playing a team worse than them in a bowl.
 
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