Bowl Games




M

Muletime

Pretty much a regular
Regular Season Record: 96-75-4 (+37.2 units)

I am very happy with another winning season in college football. I was right around even money when I started posting here. Thanks to SHSUHorn for the headsup on this site!!

I've been reading and analyzing a lot of these matchups and have come up with a few really good plays. The first one goes tomorrow...

TCU -12 - 3 units

I really don't like this match-up for Northern Illinois. In my mind, as Garrett Wolfe goes, so does the N Illinois team. TCU only gives up 68 yards per game on the ground. They will slow him down, which will hinder their offensive output.

But, digging deeper into the stats, when N Illinois has given up more than 105 yards, they have lost every game. I see no reason at all why TCU doesn't accomplish this goal. In fact, I can see TCU running for 175+ yards, which will open up their passing attack.

I don't think there is a question that TCU does not win this game. The question is can they cover? I know 10+ point favorites have a very hard time covering this big spreads, but there is a mismatch in talent in this game. The MAC is very weak this year and TCU has been rolling teams much stronger. I only question motivation and a backdoor cover, or else this would be a 5 unit play.
 
Troystacks, everythingthatsgreen and the rest of the Horned Frog backers...CONGRATS on starting the bowl season on a positive note. Let's keep this train rolling tomorrow.

:cheers:
 
BYU -3 - 4 units

This is a play on the Mormons...but, it is just as much a play against Oregon. This Beaver team had high expectations coming into the season. They got lucky to beat the Sooners with the help of the refs and seemed to have all the momentum in the world. But, after Cal dismantled this team, the season began to spiral away...culminating with a 3 game losing streak to end the season. I watched a very average Arizona team dominate this team on both sides of the line of scrimmage. I CANNOT EVER take a team that is falling apart like this team. With this small number and playing against a very hungry BYU team, the choice is obvious in my eyes.

I also saw a team that fought hard against their rival Oregon State...only to have a game ending field goal cost them the game. How in the world can you take a team that does not have a field goal kicker? I've seen many high school teams with a better kicking game than they have. Are they going for 2 everytime they score a touchdown like they had to do against Oregon State? Are they always going to be in 4 down territory when they are on BYU's side of the ball? I just can't see how you can take a team that can't kick PAT's or short field goals.

BYU wins this game handily. I see a double digit victory...but if Oregon does not show up, this one gets really ugly.
 
I'm on BYU as well. It will be a partisan Mormon crowd and I can't see the Ducks getting up for this game. They seem to be playing out the string and BYU is the kind of efficient team that won't keep uninterested teams in games with stupid penalties and turnovers. On the flip side, I think BYU is chomping at the bit to play another BCS school after choking away a winnable game at BC.

X's and O's wise, I like Beck's matchup against this Oregon team that allowed the Beavers nearly 10 yards per passing attempt. John Beck has put up gaudy numbers vs. the last 4 BCS schools he's faced, BC twice, Arizona and Cal. Plus, Oregon's inept play vs. the run is well documented and should be susceptible to the above average talent of Brown and Vakapuna especially considering the threat of Beck chunking it around. BUY's secondary woes are a bit disconcerting, but can we count on Leaf to consistently move the ball through the air without a couple picks. Look for Mendenhall to really show his defensive prowess and exploit a turnover prone Oregon offensen with different blitz and coverage looks.

I look for a shootout, with both offenses moving the ball well in the first two quarters. Oregon will make a couple of key offensive mistakes, especially considering the field goal kicking woes Mule has described above, to allow BYU to pull away. Final 42 - 31 BYU.

BYU -3 for 4 units
Over 62 for 2 units
 

2 down and a whole lot more to go. How good does it feel to have an easy win two times in a row? MOTIVATION in the bowl games is a key factor that I really think is missed by a lot of recreational gamblers. I'm not too big on the rest of the card through Christmas, so tread lightly.

Rice -4 - 1 unit
East Carolina +4' - 2 units
San Jose State +3' - 1 unit
Utah/Tulsa - No Play
Arizona St/Hawaii under 72' - 1 unit

I'm not feeling it for most of these games to make any of them bigger than 2 units. Unless some of you have some angle that I haven't looked at, this looks like it is it for me until next week.

BTW, I am really liking Rutgers next week. Going to finish up capping the game this weekend and will have a write-up next week on it. It should be a large play.

Merry Christmas everyone!
 
Just heads up, read in local papers today that RU starting two frosh receivers because of injuries..
 
Back from x-mas and feel recharged. Nothing like spending time with your family and friends to put life in its perspective. Here are the next 2 days. Thursday and Friday are going to be very HUGE for me and will determine if I make money or not in the bowl games. I am really liking several games those 2 days. Here is what I got now...

C Michigan -7 (-120) - 2 units
UCLA -3' - 1 unit

I think all of you guys have covered the reasoning for C Michigan. I hate the MAC, but this team is head and shoulders above the rest. Plus, Middle Tenn St is terrible and has no reason to be in a bowl game. Blow out city.
 
Nice hit last night...

Lets get the Bruins in tonight

Glad to see how much you love the site...we appreciate it.
 
Rutgers -7 - 5 units

I'll have a write-up for this one later. Just wanted to post this now as I think this line could climb.
 
Rutgers -7 - 5 units

Early bowl games are always about motivation and dedication. On the surface, it would appear that Rutgers will be less motivated due to the fact that they should have beat West Virginia to go to a BCS game. A lot of teams would have a let down the following game. But, not this team. When Greg Schiano signed a multiyear extension to come back to Rutgers, the team got all the momentum that they needed. Listening to a lot of the interviews here in Houston, you can tell they want this game bad. He is trying to use this game as a springboard to next season.

As for the game itself...Rutgers has a decisive advantage on both lines of scrimmage. Ray Rice will have a great game and should punish the Kansas State Wildcat front 7. Just as he always does, quarterback Mike Teal will manage the game and try to limit mistakes. He cannot throw interceptions or else Rutgers will be in a dog fight. But, with the running game churning out 200+ yards, I seriously doubt he will be put in position to carry the offense.

The Rutgers defense will slow down the K State offense. I seriously doubt that they will be able to run on them. Thus, Josh Freeman will have to beat this team...which I don't think he will be able to as Rutgers is coached too well. This is not a Texas defense and this is not a home game for the Wildcats. Rutgers wins handily...31-14.

Other bowl games today...

Oklahoma State -2 - 2 units
Cal -3 - 1 unit
 
GL with RU, I will be rooting for the Knights.. I was a little worried about RU being slim at WR, starting two true frosh, one is prob their most talented wr and the other who is 5'8 150 with 4 catches.. RU will deliver a healthy dose of Rice/Leaonard though..

Good Health on Cal, opp sides there..​
 
2006 Bowl Game Record: 8-3 (+14.6 units)

There is no better feeling than sweeping the board. The games yesterday proved to me how bad my Longhorns really are. I'll be fading them tomorrow for sure. How you get beat by Kansas State and A & M is beyond comprehesion.

Today is a big day for me as I have 2 big plays. I don't like tomorrow's card that much at all. I do lean towards the U New Years Eve. But, looks like my next bigger plays will be Jan 1.

Texas Tech -6' - 5 units

Got this last night after the Rutgers game was over. I see it is at 7' now, but I really seriously doubt the point will matter. Tech will destroy Minny as Minny is terrible and shouldn't be in a bowl game. Tech's "X-Box" offense will light up one of the worst defenses in the nation. I like the over as well, but think this is the better bet.

South Carolina -5' - 5 units

After watching Conference USA get blasted in the bowl games so far...this is the only play. If you want a good write-up for this game, see everythingthatsgreen or vanzach's threads.

Kentucky +10 - 1 unit

A dog has to win sometime, right? I like this spot as Clemson has really struggled at the end of the year. I think motivation may be a problem for them as well.

Oregon St -3' - 2 units
Purdue/Maryland over 53' - 1 unit

These last 2 are feel plays only.
 
Lost a non posted Virginia Tech game and won a non posted teaser with the dogs. Putting these up now as my NYE is starting early and I may not be around much. Here is what is locked and loaded...

Nevada/Miami under 42' - 1 unit
Nebraska +1' - 1 unit
Tenn -4 - 1 unit
Wisky +2 - 3 units
Georgia Tech/W Virginia over 47 - 1 unit
Michigan PK - 5 units

I'm waiting on the Oklahoma/Boise Total to level out, then I'll probably be on the over. Happy New Years and everyone be safe tonight!
 
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