WEEK 1 + notes

Rusty Trombone said:
BA, what are your thoughts on the new clock rule (not stopping on 1st downs)? Service academies will be able to go on quarter long drives....any other teams or angles to this new rule?
Click to expand...

I'm more of a wait and see type guy - figuring oddsmakers have already factored this in, better than I can.....

An overreaction is likely - so (maybe) the thing to do is to actually look at a few OVERS. The narrative seems to be that OFFENSES will be penalized - but how about DEFENSES? They now have little time to rest and/or adjust - so now maybe advantage lies with a great passing / fast paced offense?

Meanwhile tho - I might :
>> avoid betting on high overs - LY anything over 70 - went about 65% under
watch out betting favorites to come back and cover a large number for live/2H bets (possessions reduced)
avoid betting against a team that wants to eat clock, speed up the game - as possessions might be reduced for their opponent

Sharp coaches that can manage a game / clock - will have an increased edge - while idiots will be punished more severely........
 
WEEK 1 FBS v FCS

This is more of - what the line (might be) ..........
>> because nobody knows wtf the line (should be)

Basically taking Sagarin's stuff - fine tuned with VSIN, then Massey

Maybe the best way to set a number would be to look at Sagarin's 2022 final numbers - then adjust yourself. His 2023 adjustments are decent, but there are mistakes.

eg. JAX ST closed at 58.9 LY - now in the 2nd year in Rich Rod's system (9/7 st + 7th yr QB, they're 11.5 pts WORSE? (47.4) ?? - so with current numbers they're -5/6 vs E Tenn St. - but if you call them 2/3 pts better / ETSU about 2 better, the number is 17/18 or so



THURSDAY 8/31


NORTH CAROLINA A&T
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
UAB -25

RHODE ISLAND
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
GEORGIA STATE -18

ST. FRANCIS (PA)
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN -21??
*WM > @Cuse > @Iowa > @Toledo

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
TULSA -40

ELON
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
WAKE FOREST -28

SOUTH DAKOTA
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
MISSOURI -28

SOUTHERN UTAH
P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM
ARIZONA STATE -30
* ASU > @ Okie St



FRIDAY 9/1


HOWARD
P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN -30
*EM 7-16 HF / > @Minny

MISSOURI STATE
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
KANSAS -24



SATURDAY 9/2


SE LOUISIANA
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
MISSISSIPPI STATE -24
*MSU > Zona > LSU > @SCaro > Bama !

BRYANT
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
UNLV -22

WOFFORD
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
PITTSBURGH -37

MERCER
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM
OLE MISS -30

TENNESSEE STATE
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
NOTRE DAME -50

THE CITADEL
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
GEORGIA SOUTHERN -26

ALCORN STATE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
SOUTHERN MISS -28
*SM > @ Fla St > Tulane
A- bad team but decent vs run

ALBANY
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
MARSHALL -30

LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
OHIO -40

BUCKNELL
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
JAMES MADISON -50

MONMOUTH
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -25

WESTERN ILLINOIS
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM
NEW MEXICO STATE -20

UT MARTIN
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
GEORGIA -55

ALABAMA A&M
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
VANDERBILT -32

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
CHARLOTTE -25

CENTRAL ARKANSAS
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
OKLAHOMA STATE -32
*Gundy 43-22 non-conf / @ Ariz St next

EASTERN KENTUCKY
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
CINCINNATI -28

BETHUNE-COOKMAN
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
MEMPHIS -48

NORTHERN IOWA
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM
IOWA STATE -16'

EAST TENNESSEE STATE
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM
JACKSONVILLE STATE -16 ???

MAINE -17
P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
TROY -28

ROBERT MORRIS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
AIR FORCE -50

TOWSON
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
MARYLAND -40

NORTHWESTERN STATE
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
LOUISIANA -35

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
KANSAS STATE -34

GARDNER-WEBB
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
APPALACHIAN STATE -24?
*ASU > @ N Caro

INCARNATE WORD
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM
UTEP -3 ??
* about -10 pt adjustment for IWU (lose FCS Heisman winner + 12/13 all conf players +fine HC + 9/13 tacklers)

WESTERN CAROLINA
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
ARKANSAS -32
*in LRock

NORTHERN ARIZONA
P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM
ARIZONA -30

PORTLAND STATE
P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM
OREGON -45

COLGATE
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
SYRACUSE -40

IDAHO STATE
P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM
SAN DIEGO STATE -35
*SDSU- Ohio/UCLA
 
satnightfever05 said:
Sneaky great play: South Bama (with 20 starters back) +7.5 at somewhat rebuilding Tulane squad.. just locked that in myself after deep diving on those.. Tulane also has prime time vs Ole Miss on deck

:cheers3:
Click to expand...


like that one a lot - plus those rat bastards owe (us) for the bowl game disaster ha.....

Could be wrong - but Tulane won't simply build off the magic they found LY. Still pretty good, and well coached no doubt - but I expect a sizeable regression. SA is BUILDING - in the 3Y under fine HC, with only FCS on deck - A HUGE GAME FOR THEM. Line should be 4/5 or so.
>> only negative here is Tulane is tough as hell at home
 
added a few live/2H plays - updated leans


live/2H plays
>> idea is to have a plan BEFORE THE GAME STARTS - for me I like to guess a favorite that might start slow- but will almost certainly be able to move the ball at some point - or have an idea of the way a game is likely to play out.

eg. Col @ TCU - for me an ugly lower scoring 1H - where the Buffs compete, especially on D. Everybody is going nuts "I TOLD YOU DEION WOULD GET THIS DONE!!!'

Frogs should be able to pull away in the HEAT (11:00a game) late, as Col has no depth, especially in the TRENCHES. Plus Col will play extremely fast, so if they can't move the ball, their D will be on the field all day - accelerating their slow death ......

IMO - A reminder, that most forget - Frogs have a great DC in Gillespie - the 2Y in his system they should be significantly improved, and should be a force here.


Teams that might struggle early ....

Penn St - couch burners often play well early in the season - PSU likes to jack around early in this spot
Clemson- slow starters
Wash- Boise often fast starter on the road - Wash O too strong to shut down 4Q
(CCaro) - great QB that can destroy an easy Bruin cover
UCF, etc.....

Of course others (that I don't see starting slow) apply as well - Texas - OU - USC - Ohio St - Michigan - Wisky - A&M ?
 
bookieassassin said:
WEEK 1 FBS v FCS

This is more of - what the line (might be) ..........
>> because nobody knows wtf the line (should be)

Basically taking Sagarin's stuff - fine tuned with VSIN, then Massey

Maybe the best way to set a number would be to look at Sagarin's 2022 final numbers - then adjust yourself. His 2023 adjustments are decent, but there are mistakes.

eg. JAX ST closed at 58.9 LY - now in the 2nd year in Rich Rod's system (9/7 st + 7th yr QB, they're 11.5 pts WORSE? (47.4) ?? - so with current numbers they're -5/6 vs E Tenn St. - but if you call them 2/3 pts better / ETSU about 2 better, the number is 17/18 or so



THURSDAY 8/31


NORTH CAROLINA A&T
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
UAB -25

RHODE ISLAND
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
GEORGIA STATE -18

ST. FRANCIS (PA)
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN -21??
*WM > @Cuse > @Iowa > @Toledo

ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
TULSA -40

ELON
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
WAKE FOREST -28

SOUTH DAKOTA
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
MISSOURI -28

SOUTHERN UTAH
P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM
ARIZONA STATE -30
* ASU > @ Okie St



FRIDAY 9/1


HOWARD
P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN -30
*EM 7-16 HF / > @Minny

MISSOURI STATE
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
KANSAS -24



SATURDAY 9/2


SE LOUISIANA
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
MISSISSIPPI STATE -24
*MSU > Zona > LSU > @SCaro > Bama !

BRYANT
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
UNLV -22

WOFFORD
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
PITTSBURGH -37

MERCER
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM
OLE MISS -30

TENNESSEE STATE
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
NOTRE DAME -50

THE CITADEL
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
GEORGIA SOUTHERN -26

ALCORN STATE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
SOUTHERN MISS -28
*SM > @ Fla St > Tulane
A- bad team but decent vs run

ALBANY
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
MARSHALL -30

LONG ISLAND UNIVERSITY
P: 9:00AM C: 11:00AM E: 12:00PM
OHIO -40

BUCKNELL
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
JAMES MADISON -50

MONMOUTH
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
FLORIDA ATLANTIC -25

WESTERN ILLINOIS
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM
NEW MEXICO STATE -20

UT MARTIN
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
GEORGIA -55

ALABAMA A&M
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
VANDERBILT -32

SOUTH CAROLINA STATE
P: 3:00PM C: 5:00PM E: 6:00PM
CHARLOTTE -25

CENTRAL ARKANSAS
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
OKLAHOMA STATE -32
*Gundy 43-22 non-conf / @ Ariz St next

EASTERN KENTUCKY
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
CINCINNATI -28

BETHUNE-COOKMAN
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
MEMPHIS -48

NORTHERN IOWA
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM
IOWA STATE -16'

EAST TENNESSEE STATE
P: 11:00AM C: 1:00PM E: 2:00PM
JACKSONVILLE STATE -16 ???

MAINE -17
P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
TROY -28

ROBERT MORRIS
P: 10:00AM C: 12:00PM E: 1:00PM
AIR FORCE -50

TOWSON
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
MARYLAND -40

NORTHWESTERN STATE
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
LOUISIANA -35

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
KANSAS STATE -34

GARDNER-WEBB
P: 12:30PM C: 2:30PM E: 3:30PM
APPALACHIAN STATE -24?
*ASU > @ N Caro

INCARNATE WORD
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM
UTEP -3 ??
* about -10 pt adjustment for IWU (lose FCS Heisman winner + 12/13 all conf players +fine HC + 9/13 tacklers)

WESTERN CAROLINA
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
ARKANSAS -32
*in LRock

NORTHERN ARIZONA
P: 7:00PM C: 9:00PM E: 10:00PM
ARIZONA -30

PORTLAND STATE
P: 12:00PM C: 2:00PM E: 3:00PM
OREGON -45

COLGATE
P: 1:00PM C: 3:00PM E: 4:00PM
SYRACUSE -40

IDAHO STATE
P: 7:30PM C: 9:30PM E: 10:30PM
SAN DIEGO STATE -35
*SDSU- Ohio/UCLA
Click to expand...
talk to me about these numbers BA. do you have an updated SAG rating, that I can add to my spreadsheet and gain a better, more accurate composite? I think you saw my spreadsheet, with high variance in the numbers from the 3 sources I could find with FCS power ratings....
 
KJ said:
Albany @Hawaii week 2 after @Marshall
Click to expand...

The Great Danes should get murdered here - I would guess ha

2 tough games - then the longest road trip ever? Off 3-8, with an injury filled spring - with a bye on deck too. This one has to viewed as a vacation by their HC.

Hopefully Hawaii will play well vs Tree - but not win ha - and have something left here (Ducks on deck) - they will have an extra day of rest (Tree on Friday)

BUT - approach with caution - last SEVENTEEN times Hawaii has been favored at home - they've covered ONE >> so hit the 1st number you see if you like it
 
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BA

Do you think Nolan can pick up where Duggan left off? TCU lost a ton of talent everywhere (QB,WR,Rb etc)....is that part of the 1st half under computation? Deions kids definitely stepping up in class from what most are used too.....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
BA

Do you think Nolan can pick up where Duggan left off? TCU lost a ton of talent everywhere (QB,WR,Rb etc)....is that part of the 1st half under computation? Deions kids definitely stepping up in class from what most are used too.....
Click to expand...


Frogs better hope not - Nolan quit the team 2 week ago ha .....

Probably mean Chandler Morris (beat out Duggan LY) - no way Frogs simply pick up where they left off. The MAGIC is gone.

UNDER is just a hunch that Frog D will give the Buff O some problems - and Buff D will do the same (early). Low scoring/close 1H > then looking to play TCU 2H (big maybe) - plus it's gonna be hot as hell. Col 1H is probably a decent play - I just want no part of those boys myself. Frogs might destroy them from the opening kick - sure.
 
Ha! Yep, so many names and rosters has me dizzy....not to mention the portal shuffle....nearly impossible to be on top of 80% of stuff these days....

Thanks for the response BA
 
steponaduck said:
talk to me about these numbers BA. do you have an updated SAG rating, that I can add to my spreadsheet and gain a better, more accurate composite? I think you saw my spreadsheet, with high variance in the numbers from the 3 sources I could find with FCS power ratings....
Click to expand...


For some reason the normal site didn't update - just stumbled across it ha

VSIN has FCS numbers up too -

data.vsin.com

VSIN The Sports Betting Network | VSiN

VSIN is The Sports Betting Network, with expert analysts including Brent Musburger, live Vegas odds, sports betting lines and data for every sport so you can bet on sports with confidence. Watch and listen to VSiN, The Sports Betting Network 24/7 for free or start your subscription free trial...
data.vsin.com data.vsin.com
 
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WEEK 0 notes
$ plus 'what the line should', or might be


299 NAVY
P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM
300 NOTRE DAME -23'
$ An ugly, lower scoring game for awhile - Irish should pull away late. Strong lean Navy for me - I'll probably play small at 21/21'. Best way is probably look to play Irish live/2H - wait and see what the weather is like -Sam should be the difference.
>> Note Irish should have a nice crowd edge here (40K drunk Irishmen). Grass field, some rain/wind, mostly earlier in the day - don't forget NITE game.


N ALABAMA
3:30pm E ESPN / Cramton Bowl, Mont., AL
MERCER -21
* Mercer in 4Y under HC Drew CRONIC ha - off 7-4 - 6/10 st - ranked #20 or so. NA off 1-10 / 11st / new HC
$$ it's Mercer or nothing here - barely missed play-offs L2Y - need a nice W here - huge game for them. NA does have some nice FBS transfers

301 UMASS
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
302 NEW MEXICO STATE -6
$ I think UMass competes here - but NMSU should win an ugly, low scoring game.
note: NMSU in class 8/16 - UMass starts 9/5

FORDHAM
7:00p E
ALABANY -3
* Albany almost won LY at Fordham (L48-45) - now Fordham AA QB and OC are gone, while Albany fine QB and 16 st return
$ Albany with TOUGH stretch on deck needs a W here - lean Danes at <3

S CARO ST
7:30P E ABC wtf / at Ga State stadium
JACKSON ST -13
*SCSU 13 st back from 3-8 /JSU 3 st / 12 FBS transfers / no Deion

303 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM
304 LOUISIANA TECH -8'
$ absolutely no interest - LT should be much improved here on O tho ...FIU (should) have a hard time keeping pace, so maybe LT live/2H (they are 5-0 ats at home under 2Y HC) .

305 SAN JOSE STATE
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
306 USC -32
$ ditto - maybe USC 1H / SJSU 2H- I can't trust USC D for 4Q here

307 OHIO
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
308 SAN DIEGO STATE -4
$ tough trip for slow starting Cats (1-8 ats Sept) / QB off injury. MTW vs MAC? > edge to MTW. I lean SDSU

309 UTEP -1
P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM
310 JACKSONVILLE STATE
$ UTEP and their 'edge in the trenches', is getting too much hype - JSU has a fine OL (PLUS 7Y QB), and ain't (that) small on D. Lean OVER for me - BOTH should move ball

311 HAWAII
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
312 VANDERBILT -16'
$ Vandy gets murdered, or just might compete vs a disinterested Vandy. How much quality work can you get in for a team you destroyed on the road LY?. Lean OVER for me. RECALL IT'S THE QUALITY OF YOUR PREPARATION THAT MATTERS - not how fired up you look running on the field (that's really dumb btw)



These early games, with the lines being up for MONTHS - are tough to beat. At this point, the best strategy is to : simply wait for the damn game to start - THEN BET.

BOL boys ............:shake:
 
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NOTE: anybody like Navy?

WAIT - no reason to even hit the 21 that I see at Heritage - see how high it will go. The time is over for now, for the savvy gamblers - it's homer / drunk Irish bets from here on out probably. NOBODY wants to hear LOGIC now, it's all about Sam Hartman and new Navy HC / no QB YET! / new system, etc. 21' is likely IMO, and maybe keeps going - maybe 23/24? SP+ has this at 33 - others 24-27. I will likely wait to kick-off for a (POSSIBLE) 24 ha. If not - I should still be able to get 21+
 
Same plan with LSU - as EVERYBODY LOVES them some FSU !!!!. Now an LSU DT is out !! OH NO!

I can already get LSU at 1' < -120 - a wait may get you a juiced ML bet?. I might take the 2 (small) and add as/if it drops .......
 
bookieassassin said:
Same plan with LSU - as EVERYBODY LOVES them some FSU !!!!. Now an LSU DT is out !! OH NO!

I can already get LSU at 1' < -120 - a wait may get you a juiced ML bet?. I might take the 2 (small) and add as/if it drops .......
Click to expand...
Thanks as always. Was wondering where you were at on this. I took lsu ml at 133.
 
bookieassassin said:
WEEK 0 notes
$ plus 'what the line should', or might be


299 NAVY
P: 11:30AM C: 1:30PM E: 2:30PM
300 NOTRE DAME -23'
$ An ugly, lower scoring game for awhile - Irish should pull away late. Strong lean Navy for me - I'll probably play small at 21/21'. Best way is probably look to play Irish live/2H - wait and see what the weather is like -Sam should be the difference.
>> Note Irish should have a nice crowd edge here (40K drunk Irishmen). Grass field, some rain/wind, mostly earlier in the day - don't forget NITE game.


N ALABAMA
3:30pm E ESPN / Cramton Bowl, Mont., AL
MERCER -21
* Mercer in 4Y under HC Drew CRONIC ha - off 7-4 - 6/10 st - ranked #20 or so. NA off 1-10 / 11st / new HC
$$ it's Mercer or nothing here - barely missed play-offs L2Y - need a nice W here - huge game for them. NA does have some nice FBS transfers

301 UMASS
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
302 NEW MEXICO STATE -6
$ I think UMass competes here - but NMSU should win an ugly, low scoring game.
note: NMSU in class 8/16 - UMass starts 9/5

FORDHAM
7:00p E
ALABANY -3
* Albany almost won LY at Fordham (L48-45) - now Fordham AA QB and OC are gone, while Albany fine QB and 16 st return
$ Albany with TOUGH stretch on deck needs a W here - lean Danes at <3

S CARO ST
7:30P E ABC wtf / at Ga State stadium
JACKSON ST -13
*SCSU 13 st back from 3-8 /JSU 3 st / 12 FBS transfers / no Deion

303 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
P: 6:00PM C: 8:00PM E: 9:00PM
304 LOUISIANA TECH -8'
$ absolutely no interest - LT should be much improved here on O tho ...FIU (should) have a hard time keeping pace, so maybe LT live/2H (they are 5-0 ats at home under 2Y HC) .

305 SAN JOSE STATE
P: 5:00PM C: 7:00PM E: 8:00PM
306 USC -32
$ ditto - maybe USC 1H / SJSU 2H- I can't trust USC D for 4Q here

307 OHIO
P: 4:00PM C: 6:00PM E: 7:00PM
308 SAN DIEGO STATE -4
$ tough trip for slow starting Cats (1-8 ats Sept) / QB off injury. MTW vs MAC? > edge to MTW. I lean SDSU

309 UTEP -1
P: 2:30PM C: 4:30PM E: 5:30PM
310 JACKSONVILLE STATE
$ UTEP and their 'edge in the trenches', is getting too much hype - JSU has a fine OL (PLUS 7Y QB), and ain't (that) small on D. Lean OVER for me - BOTH should move ball

311 HAWAII
P: 4:30PM C: 6:30PM E: 7:30PM
312 VANDERBILT -16'
$ Vandy gets murdered, or just might compete vs a disinterested Vandy. How much quality work can you get in for a team you destroyed on the road LY?. Lean OVER for me. RECALL IT'S THE QUALITY OF YOUR PREPARATION THAT MATTERS - not how fired up you look running on the field (that's really dumb btw)



These early games, with the lines being up for MONTHS - are tough to beat. At this point, the best strategy is to : simply wait for the damn game to start - THEN BET.

BOL boys ............:shake:
Click to expand...
I'm probably a sucker for laying the 16.5 vs Vandy, but long road trip for Hawaii- huge home game week 2 vs Stanford.. 17 just isn't that much- Vandy should have lots of possessions with Hawaii throwing it 70 times.. under the 17, I just couldnt help myself :embarassed:
 
bookieassassin said:
NOTE: anybody like Navy?

WAIT - no reason to even hit the 21 that I see at Heritage - see how high it will go. The time is over for now, for the savvy gamblers - it's homer / drunk Irish bets from here on out probably. NOBODY wants to hear LOGIC now, it's all about Sam Hartman and new Navy HC / no QB YET! / new system, etc. 21' is likely IMO, and maybe keeps going - maybe 23/24? SP+ has this at 33 - others 24-27. I will likely wait to kick-off for a (POSSIBLE) 24 ha. If not - I should still be able to get 21+
Click to expand...

get me, BA :shake:

like navy, but you're right...prolly way more value tomorrow morning.
 
bookieassassin said:
Same plan with LSU - as EVERYBODY LOVES them some FSU !!!!. Now an LSU DT is out !! OH NO!

I can already get LSU at 1' < -120 - a wait may get you a juiced ML bet?. I might take the 2 (small) and add as/if it drops .......
Click to expand...
Good morning BA, have a kick ass season my brother. LSU ML is one of plays as well…. I grabbed Ohio +3, as a Wolfie POD.
Cheers away we go…..!!! :tiphat:
 
small play

Howard +24

EMich is horrific in this role - especially with Minny on deck
>> 0-4 vs FCS / 7-16 when favored at home / 24-6 road dog

They will - stink here > play the hell outta Minny > then probably lose to UMass at home
 
smaller

Hokies -15'

waited too long - drooling on myself ......
>> Hokies stink but ODU loses everybody and stinks much worse - nite game with revenge angle, with a tough run of games on deck - VT should get a nice W here
 
added extra small (for now)

Frogs -9' ...juiced

not sure if I'll get a better deal at the half or not - will look to add live and at half
 
Absolutely incredible job by Deion, in every aspect - OL/DL should really be getting abused - QB playing great.

BUT .........ha
>> I'll be looking closely to fade these boys - as the hype grows exponentially

Nebraska > Colorado St > @ Oregon > USC > @ Arizona St > Tree

Frogs starting a bit slower than I figured (maybe Buffs are actually pretty good somehow?)

Nichols > @Houston > SMU > W Virg
>> plenty of time to regroup - probably value there I would think, as "overrated" talk begins
 
bookieassassin said:
Absolutely incredible job by Deion, in every aspect - OL/DL should really be getting abused - QB playing great.

BUT .........ha
>> I'll be looking closely to fade these boys - as the hype grows exponentially

Nebraska > Colorado St > @ Oregon > USC > @ Arizona St > Tree

Frogs starting a bit slower than I figured (maybe Buffs are actually pretty good somehow?)

Nichols > @Houston > SMU > W Virg
>> plenty of time to regroup - probably value there I would think, as "overrated" talk begins
Click to expand...
Yep...
 
Week 1 was a great learning, and (hopefully) not too expensive a handicapping lesson .......

NEVER/EVER load up, and bet more than you should because "THERE'S JUST NO WAY THAT _______ happens !!!!!"

There is 'no way', that Colorado (one of the worst teams in the nation LY) - goes on the road and wins outright AT TCU - who sure got killed by Georgia - but not too many months ago just beat a HUNGRY Michigan team, that BTW just might be the best team in the country now.

There is also 'no way', that Wyoming with THAT offense, with their 2 top RB's out - is able to keep pace with TT. Many more examples ....

Lesson 2 (buncha guys do this) - don't handicap these games as if 'players / teams are ROBOTS' ......
>> meaning there aren't really outside influences (situations) that influence their performance - try to find a SPOT that each team plays their best, or worst.

FACE IT - because it's true. Any given team really only gives a great effort maybe 3-5X/year. Sure sometimes a team goes out and plays great seemingly every week (Frogs LY) - but it's only a few each year. Most importantly - coaches don't place EQUAL importance on each and every game. A smart coach picks his spots, knowing it's a long year. Saban /staff doesn't prepare OR coach with the same intensity for MTS as they would vs Georgia - nor do they GAME PLAN the same. Players sense this, it affects how they play. plus they know that NOBODY on the opposing team could play for them.

note: Don't think in the dreaded BINARY / all or nothing style - meaning it's a fractional thing. It's not "so you're saying they just don't care !!!" - NO - instead of getting a 100% effort - it's maybe 90-99%, or even less. I can promise you this - TCU players AND staff - did not PREPARE with the same intensity and dedication that the Buffs did. WHY? - because they just (knew) they weren't any good. MEANWHILE- not only was Colorado more talented than we thought - Deion's supreme level of bullshit - got them to actually BELIEVE they not only could, but would win no doubt. So kinda sorta - we saw a 90-95% effort (all week, not game) - but a 105% effort from Colorado. So now they're saying "wtf just happened?". It's the same reason you/ we can't lose weight or stop stupid habits - A LACK OF TOTAL COMMITTMENT.


BOL today boys - could use a 105% myself from NW ha ............ :shake:
 
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BTW - now the question (for Col) is how long can they extend the magic. I am literally DYING to fade them THIS week ha ....
>> before week 1 - that line would be maybe 10-12' - how is it possible to put a number on this one? - given Husker uncertainty too. So how can we bet this game?

If I lose my mind and post a play on Nebraska - FFS ignore my silly azz. Probably best to avoid their games for now.

Officially - I would think the Buffs play well until injuries/ depth concerns limit them. Then once their confidence wanes - FADE - because that's their edge right now. How long can that Travis Hunter play BOTH ways at 170 lbs or so ......?
 
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