Bowl Game Leans, Writeups & Plays to come..
- Thread starter E.T.G.
- Start date
Aztec4Life
Montezuma Mesa Survivor
everything - Great looking list of leans buddy. I agree with most of them.
I'm loving Florida and San Jose State. I'll probably jump on both shortly.
GL in the coming weeks. :cheers:
I'm loving Florida and San Jose State. I'll probably jump on both shortly.
GL in the coming weeks. :cheers:
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E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Aztec and Terpman, Thanks a lot guys...
Now onto one of the more important issues...
Houston</ST1
Cougars (10-3) vs. South Carolina </ST1Gamecocks -6.5 (7-5)
This is a very interesting game and as of right now it seems like I am in the minority about my feelings but below is how I broke the game down. I am not trying to convince you guys not to take Houston</ST1, it is your money… I am showing you why I think the gamecocks cover however..<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
<st1</st1:City>has talent on the team, Kolb is a hell of a player. They have a decent dual threat rush attack and they also have a tendency to be unpredictable but I am not even figuring that into my prediction.<O</O
<O</O<st1:City></st1:City>
<st1:City>Houston </ST1</st1:City>is 3-2 Away (2-3 ATS)<O</O
So <st1:City><ST1Carolina </ST1</st1:City>is 4-1 Away (5-0 ATS), 7-2 ATS last 9.
<O</OThe game is being played in Memphis, a Conference USA town, however I have read reports in the paper that suggest So Car intends to sell anywhere from 12-15k tickets. The gamecocks will have a little fan base at the <st1:City><ST1Liberty B</st1:City>owl but <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>should have the hometown crowd on their side..
<O</ONeither team has any serious injuries coming into this game..
<O</OQuaterbacks:<O</O
<st1:City><ST1Houston:</ST1</st1:City> Kolb – 3423yd, 67%, 27/3<O</O
So Carol: Mitchell – 1466, 67%, 6/5 (Has played the last 3.5 games)
<O</O
Offense:<O</O
<st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>Offense Last 5: 34pts, 22First Down, 40-233rush/yd, 272pass/yd<O</O
So Carol Offense Last 5: 28pts, 24First Down, 28-142rush/yd, 293pass/yd<O</O
<O</O
Defense:<O</O
<st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>Defense Last 3: 22pts, 313yd, 200yd passing, 114yd rush <O</O
So Carol Defense Last 3: 17pts, 324yd, 188yd passing, 136yd rush
<O</O<st1:City>Houston</ST1</st1:City> Last 5 Opponents: W: 34-20 So Miss (8-5), W: 23-20 @ <st1:City><ST1Memphis</ST1</st1:City>(2-10), W: 37-27 @ SMU (6-6) , W: 27-10 <st1:City><ST1Tulsa </ST1</st1:City>(8-4), W: 51-31 Cent Flor (4-8).
<O</OSouth Carol Last 5 Opponents: W: 31-28 @ Clemson (8-4), W: 52-7 MTST (7-5), L: 17-16 @ Flor (12-1), L: 26-20 Arky (10-3), L: 31-24 <st1:State><ST1Tennessee </ST1</st1:State>(9-3)
<O</OLast 5 Opponents record:<st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City> = 28-33 *2 Bowl teams, SC = 46-16 *All 5 heading to a bowl
<O</O
<O</O
When you look at the numbers on the surface, they are close however, when you evaluate quality of opponents, I think there is a significant difference. There is a reason a 7-5 team is a 7 point favorite over the 10-3 conference champ. SC wouldn’t be 7-5 in C-USA and <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>wouldn’t be 10-3 in SEC play.
<O</OAnother important factor is the Clemson win. Sure Clemson was a team slipping but the rivalry between Clemson and SC is huge and they’re players were up for that game, believe that. Against a pretty tough Defense from <ST1<st1:City>Clemson</st1:City>, <st1:State>SC</st1:State></ST1 punted 1 time. They racked up 208yds rushing and 284 passing and had a +13 margin in First downs (28-15).
<O</O
Lastly, SC lost the bowl game last yr against <st1:State><ST1Missouri</ST1</st1:State> and it was a hot issue for Spurrier all preseason. That will not happen this yr. SC will finish the game, I have no doubt in that…
<O</ONow you can say that <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>is off an emotional high since avenging a previous loss and winning C-USA and they get to play a big conference school and show them they are legit. For those of you on <st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City> +6.5, I am under the assumption that you feel <st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City> has a legit shot of a SU win in this game. You didn’t take Houston because you think the score will be 30-24 SC, there is some room for comfort in that spread with them possibly pulling it off but ultimately a 3point game is what your see?.. I think <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>is a good team, however there are some things they can get away with against <st1:City><ST1Memphis </ST1</st1:City>and Cent <st1:State><ST1Florida </ST1</st1:State>that won’t happen in this game..
<O</OI think that <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>is outclassed most phases of the game except QB and speed will be a real difference in this game. Sure Alridge and Marshall made some key plays in C-USA but how will they fare against a defense that is equally as quick as them? Alridge is all but 175lbs, he won’t be running through the tackles much this game and Jackie Battle is decent.
<O</OIn the last four games they have faced two of the better rushing attacks in the country: Clemson and <st1:State><ST1Arkansas..</ST1</st1:State><O</O
Clemson: 33-181 (There were two TD's runs of 80 and 31yds, none the less, credit to Clemson RB's, those kids are fast)
<st1:State><ST1Arkansas</ST1</st1:State>: 50 -267 (I'm sorry but not many teams in the country can contain Arky for 50 attempts)..<O</O
<O</O
Battle/Alridge is not even close to McFadden/Jones or Davis/Spiller.
<O</OThe bottom line, imo, is that <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>doesn’t play a complete game. They will start slow and pick it up some in the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half. By then the game will be over. I think SC wins something like 31-17 or 35-20, a 2TD type of game..This could be looked at as a homer pick or a SEC superiority complex pick but I tried to look at this game objectively and this is a huge step up in competition for Houston whether you want to admit it or not. SC has played real well as of late and the extra 4 weeks can only help this young team… Yes they are 7-5 but they might be the best 5 loss team in <st1:country-region><ST1America</ST1...</st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region></st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region></st1:country-region><O</ONone the less, Good Luck to all on this game, especially the massive amount of people on <st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City>. I respect you guys as cappers but here I have to stick with what my gut tells me and I will be locking this one in at -7 and under for sure..<O</O
Now onto one of the more important issues...
Houston</ST1
Cougars (10-3) vs. South Carolina </ST1Gamecocks -6.5 (7-5) This is a very interesting game and as of right now it seems like I am in the minority about my feelings but below is how I broke the game down. I am not trying to convince you guys not to take Houston</ST1
, it is your money… I am showing you why I think the gamecocks cover however..<?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
</st1:City>has talent on the team, Kolb is a hell of a player. They have a decent dual threat rush attack and they also have a tendency to be unpredictable but I am not even figuring that into my prediction.<O</O<O
</O<st1:City></st1:City><st1:City>Houston </ST1
</st1:City>is 3-2 Away (2-3 ATS)<O</OSo <st1:City><ST1
Carolina </ST1</st1:City>is 4-1 Away (5-0 ATS), 7-2 ATS last 9.<O
</OThe game is being played in Memphis, a Conference USA town, however I have read reports in the paper that suggest So Car intends to sell anywhere from 12-15k tickets. The gamecocks will have a little fan base at the <st1:City><ST1Liberty B</st1:City>owl but <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>should have the hometown crowd on their side..<O
</ONeither team has any serious injuries coming into this game..<O
</OQuaterbacks:<O</O<st1:City><ST1
Houston:</ST1</st1:City> Kolb – 3423yd, 67%, 27/3<O</OSo Carol: Mitchell – 1466, 67%, 6/5 (Has played the last 3.5 games)
<O
</OOffense:<O
</O<st1:City><ST1
Houston </ST1</st1:City>Offense Last 5: 34pts, 22First Down, 40-233rush/yd, 272pass/yd<O</OSo Carol Offense Last 5: 28pts, 24First Down, 28-142rush/yd, 293pass/yd<O
</O<O
</ODefense:<O
</O<st1:City><ST1
Houston </ST1</st1:City>Defense Last 3: 22pts, 313yd, 200yd passing, 114yd rush <O</OSo Carol Defense Last 3: 17pts, 324yd, 188yd passing, 136yd rush
<O
</O<st1:City>Houston</ST1</st1:City> Last 5 Opponents: W: 34-20 So Miss (8-5), W: 23-20 @ <st1:City><ST1Memphis</ST1</st1:City>(2-10), W: 37-27 @ SMU (6-6) , W: 27-10 <st1:City><ST1Tulsa </ST1</st1:City>(8-4), W: 51-31 Cent Flor (4-8).<O
</OSouth Carol Last 5 Opponents: W: 31-28 @ Clemson (8-4), W: 52-7 MTST (7-5), L: 17-16 @ Flor (12-1), L: 26-20 Arky (10-3), L: 31-24 <st1:State><ST1Tennessee </ST1</st1:State>(9-3)<O
</OLast 5 Opponents record:<st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City> = 28-33 *2 Bowl teams, SC = 46-16 *All 5 heading to a bowl<O
</O<O
</OWhen you look at the numbers on the surface, they are close however, when you evaluate quality of opponents, I think there is a significant difference. There is a reason a 7-5 team is a 7 point favorite over the 10-3 conference champ. SC wouldn’t be 7-5 in C-USA and <st1:City><ST1
Houston </ST1</st1:City>wouldn’t be 10-3 in SEC play. <O
</OAnother important factor is the Clemson win. Sure Clemson was a team slipping but the rivalry between Clemson and SC is huge and they’re players were up for that game, believe that. Against a pretty tough Defense from <ST1<st1:City>Clemson</st1:City>, <st1:State>SC</st1:State></ST1 punted 1 time. They racked up 208yds rushing and 284 passing and had a +13 margin in First downs (28-15).<O
</OLastly, SC lost the bowl game last yr against <st1:State><ST1
Missouri</ST1</st1:State> and it was a hot issue for Spurrier all preseason. That will not happen this yr. SC will finish the game, I have no doubt in that…<O
</ONow you can say that <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>is off an emotional high since avenging a previous loss and winning C-USA and they get to play a big conference school and show them they are legit. For those of you on <st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City> +6.5, I am under the assumption that you feel <st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City> has a legit shot of a SU win in this game. You didn’t take Houston because you think the score will be 30-24 SC, there is some room for comfort in that spread with them possibly pulling it off but ultimately a 3point game is what your see?.. I think <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>is a good team, however there are some things they can get away with against <st1:City><ST1Memphis </ST1</st1:City>and Cent <st1:State><ST1Florida </ST1</st1:State>that won’t happen in this game..<O
</OI think that <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>is outclassed most phases of the game except QB and speed will be a real difference in this game. Sure Alridge and Marshall made some key plays in C-USA but how will they fare against a defense that is equally as quick as them? Alridge is all but 175lbs, he won’t be running through the tackles much this game and Jackie Battle is decent.<O
</OIn the last four games they have faced two of the better rushing attacks in the country: Clemson and <st1:State><ST1Arkansas..</ST1</st1:State><O</OClemson: 33-181 (There were two TD's runs of 80 and 31yds, none the less, credit to Clemson RB's, those kids are fast)
<st1:State><ST1
Arkansas</ST1</st1:State>: 50 -267 (I'm sorry but not many teams in the country can contain Arky for 50 attempts)..<O</O<O
</OBattle/Alridge is not even close to McFadden/Jones or Davis/Spiller.
<O
</OThe bottom line, imo, is that <st1:City><ST1Houston </ST1</st1:City>doesn’t play a complete game. They will start slow and pick it up some in the 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half. By then the game will be over. I think SC wins something like 31-17 or 35-20, a 2TD type of game..This could be looked at as a homer pick or a SEC superiority complex pick but I tried to look at this game objectively and this is a huge step up in competition for Houston whether you want to admit it or not. SC has played real well as of late and the extra 4 weeks can only help this young team… Yes they are 7-5 but they might be the best 5 loss team in <st1:country-region><ST1America</ST1...</st1:country-region><st1:country-region></st1:country-region>
<st1:country-region></st1:country-region><O
</ONone the less, Good Luck to all on this game, especially the massive amount of people on <st1:City><ST1Houston</ST1</st1:City>. I respect you guys as cappers but here I have to stick with what my gut tells me and I will be locking this one in at -7 and under for sure..<O</O
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E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
First bowl play...
TCU -12.5 +100 - --3 Units- I had a writeup and it didn't post. To be short, TCU is playing great right now, the first half is worth a solid look as well since TCU has been blasting people early.. I didn't want to take anymore chances with the line, I thought last night it would be heading to 11 or maybe slip a little more but as we get closer to gametime the favorite money will be in and this will be -14 or more imo..I like TCU by 17+ and I have them at 32 in all of my confidence bowl contests.
I am also still looking at that O/U 47 ...I think TCU can get awfully close themselves..
TCU -12.5 +100 - --3 Units- I had a writeup and it didn't post. To be short, TCU is playing great right now, the first half is worth a solid look as well since TCU has been blasting people early.. I didn't want to take anymore chances with the line, I thought last night it would be heading to 11 or maybe slip a little more but as we get closer to gametime the favorite money will be in and this will be -14 or more imo..I like TCU by 17+ and I have them at 32 in all of my confidence bowl contests.
I am also still looking at that O/U 47 ...I think TCU can get awfully close themselves..
A
abcs
Guest
Hey sorry i didnt get back to you, but I like the cocks and UK to cover. This is a much bigger game for UK, when was the last time those jokers went to a bowl. Clemson is a mess.. proctor had a miserable end to the season. UK will at least put points on the board.
ETG:
I'm not on the ever-popular TCU pick. I look at 3 or 4 different programs, and they are mixed, so a no-play for me. On average, I show an 8-10 point win, which is too close for me. Everybody loves TCU here, so this may be one of the games where the numbers are just wrong. 2 things against using numbers to cap this game. TCU's very strong recent games should far supercede their earlier stats, and NIU's very strong early stats should be discounted due to their disappointing late season (people catching on/shutting down the run game, results in no pass game, etc..).
South Carol and Houston mixed as well. On average, show Houston within 7. I'm on Houston.
I like the San Jose pick and am already on that one. I have an SJSU outright win and gave New Mexico 3 points for HFA. Is Toledo going to coach in the game? Hopefully not.
Florida State mixed. Lean Florida State, probably a no play.
Lean Kentucky as well, but probably a no play.
I do not like Wake +10, but I could have told you my program would take Louisville before I even ran it. The number discrepancy is huge, but as documented, the numbers ain't everything.
I've played Western Michigan small.
I've played Florida small.
I've played Boise, but dad gummit everybody likes Oklahoma. Can't say I'm too happy about AP returning. Hoping for some "little guys can do big things too" motivation from Boise.
I'm not on the ever-popular TCU pick. I look at 3 or 4 different programs, and they are mixed, so a no-play for me. On average, I show an 8-10 point win, which is too close for me. Everybody loves TCU here, so this may be one of the games where the numbers are just wrong. 2 things against using numbers to cap this game. TCU's very strong recent games should far supercede their earlier stats, and NIU's very strong early stats should be discounted due to their disappointing late season (people catching on/shutting down the run game, results in no pass game, etc..).
South Carol and Houston mixed as well. On average, show Houston within 7. I'm on Houston.
I like the San Jose pick and am already on that one. I have an SJSU outright win and gave New Mexico 3 points for HFA. Is Toledo going to coach in the game? Hopefully not.
Florida State mixed. Lean Florida State, probably a no play.
Lean Kentucky as well, but probably a no play.
I do not like Wake +10, but I could have told you my program would take Louisville before I even ran it. The number discrepancy is huge, but as documented, the numbers ain't everything.
I've played Western Michigan small.
I've played Florida small.
I've played Boise, but dad gummit everybody likes Oklahoma. Can't say I'm too happy about AP returning. Hoping for some "little guys can do big things too" motivation from Boise.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
larice said:
First, finals are kicking the shit out of me but its back to N-E-W Jerz this weeknd where I can focus my efforts on college football again..
Matt, thanks for the kind words..GL to you
Larice - good looks on LSU, still think they have way too much speed for ND but nonetheless I haven't played that game...Interesting what your program tells you. When I cap games I don't like to look further than 5 weeks back, usually 3-4weeks is what I will start breaking a team down by.. College football is a long season and is a mountain of ups and downs for different teams for whatever reason; injuries, giving up on the season, etc....Is your program based on season long numbers?
Have you tweaked with it to maybe pull up predictions based on the last 4 games of a team? Different results or the same?
I haven't punched any more tickets yet, only TCU, but I think SC will be a 5unit play and 1 of my biggest of the bowl season..Its just a gut feeling I got..A lot of respected board members got Houston and I have re-evaluated this game and came to the same conclusion. SC by 10-14..
ETG:
I'd absolutely love to get "per game" stats on any 5 games of my choosing. My best picks (somewhere around 60-70%) were in weeks 5-9. The problem is record keeping...no time. I download per game stats each week, but it is a per game for all of the 11 games at this point. Agree with ups/downs...injuries (Colt Mc)...teams figure out your scheme...etc. It changes tremendously over the course of the season. I basically go look at the last few games and the common opponents manually on the games the program selects to pick my bets (which usually are not as good as the raw bets from the program, go figure).
I don't track units, but I'd estimate I'm on Houston for around 1/4 of a unit....I try to put a little on all of the program picks even if I don't like them and I wasn't crazy about Houston.
I'm curious about Wake...I really like Lousville except for the "dogs rule" rule. Are you gonna post your thoughts?
I'd absolutely love to get "per game" stats on any 5 games of my choosing. My best picks (somewhere around 60-70%) were in weeks 5-9. The problem is record keeping...no time. I download per game stats each week, but it is a per game for all of the 11 games at this point. Agree with ups/downs...injuries (Colt Mc)...teams figure out your scheme...etc. It changes tremendously over the course of the season. I basically go look at the last few games and the common opponents manually on the games the program selects to pick my bets (which usually are not as good as the raw bets from the program, go figure).
I don't track units, but I'd estimate I'm on Houston for around 1/4 of a unit....I try to put a little on all of the program picks even if I don't like them and I wasn't crazy about Houston.
I'm curious about Wake...I really like Lousville except for the "dogs rule" rule. Are you gonna post your thoughts?
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
larice said:
I can understand how tough and long it would take to get "per game" stats, just was throwing it out there as a possible way to improve some predictions from the system..
When I first saw the Wake line it was kind of like, "this team is a covering machine and is +10" so it was worth a look. Personally the more I think about it, Wake will have to score more than 1 TD to have a shot in this game, can they? Louisville defense is nothing to be scared of but neither is that pedestrian offense from Wake.. Over the wkend I am going to put a lot of effort in breaking down the games I like...Just need to finish this school shit... I had plans to bet every bowl game but I'm no good at that and every week I tried to play alot of action I dug myself a hole for Saturday...Maybe I will throw a little cash on them just for fun but I will be zeroing in on around 5-6 plays and tryin to take those to the house, TCU and SC being 2 already..
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Thursday Night:
No play, I lean towards BYU and want them to win but I have a bad feeling about this game and have been flip-flopping all week...BYU got beat vs the BCS schools they played and Utah just got done taking them to the wire... I will be laying off because I have no read on Oregon. They have the better athletes but who knows if they come to play...
but for all those people with BYU-3, I will be drinking beer rooting for you!
:drink: :cheers:
No play, I lean towards BYU and want them to win but I have a bad feeling about this game and have been flip-flopping all week...BYU got beat vs the BCS schools they played and Utah just got done taking them to the wire... I will be laying off because I have no read on Oregon. They have the better athletes but who knows if they come to play...
but for all those people with BYU-3, I will be drinking beer rooting for you!
:drink: :cheers:
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
New Orleans Bowl
Rice -5 +100 --- 1.5 Units
Under 55 +100 --- 1.5 Units
Rumor is that Clement is cleared to play but the coaches have not said much about that. Regardless, backup Armstrong who is normally a receiver in the offense, has already played and won at QB for Rice and forces Troy to prepare for a more mobile qb. Clement is having a great yr (21/5 TD-INT) so I would like to have him behind center but I won't backoff the play with Armstrong there. Dillard, a 2nd team all american is a talent who has caught a TD pass in every game this yr and will see plenty of action tonight.. Rice comes in red-hot with a 6 game winning streak and they will be ready to play in the bowl game after a 1-10 season last yr...
Troy comes from the Sunbelt conference which might as well be considered a triple-a league of football. Sure they have seen offensive attacks, but none as good as Rice and that is saying a lot.
The under opened at 49 and has been driven up pretty high now, I personally think it doesn't come near 55. GL to all, lets keep this shit rolling
Rice -5 +100 --- 1.5 Units
Under 55 +100 --- 1.5 Units
Rumor is that Clement is cleared to play but the coaches have not said much about that. Regardless, backup Armstrong who is normally a receiver in the offense, has already played and won at QB for Rice and forces Troy to prepare for a more mobile qb. Clement is having a great yr (21/5 TD-INT) so I would like to have him behind center but I won't backoff the play with Armstrong there. Dillard, a 2nd team all american is a talent who has caught a TD pass in every game this yr and will see plenty of action tonight.. Rice comes in red-hot with a 6 game winning streak and they will be ready to play in the bowl game after a 1-10 season last yr...
Troy comes from the Sunbelt conference which might as well be considered a triple-a league of football. Sure they have seen offensive attacks, but none as good as Rice and that is saying a lot.
The under opened at 49 and has been driven up pretty high now, I personally think it doesn't come near 55. GL to all, lets keep this shit rolling
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
1-2 on the bowl season.. (-.30 Units)
Not how I wanted things to go. I don't have anything to say about the Rice spread, they got their asses handed to them all night. Troy was too fast and way to physical for these boys. Sun Belt pounded Conference USA in this matchup..
Now the under, man was that a heartbreaker. To make things worse, I have some dipshit at the bar sitting next to me telling me its a lock to hit with about 4 minutes left. The whole time in my head I am trying to find every piece of wood to knock on. Finally get 3rd and 17 and Troy breaks it on a slip screen.. Rice that was some of the worst tackeling I have ever seen...
Tomorrow must go better..
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
bounce back tomorrow. GL this bowl season
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
1-2 (-.3 Units)
Saturday Picks
South Florida -6 +100 --- 3 Units - Going against conference USA today big time. I know you shouldnt look at it like this but team a beat team b who is playing team c... Rice beat ECU and after what I saw last night, there is something to be said about that. South Florida wins this game with a tough defense, Aztec has it written up well if you are looking for more detail.. Like USF qb Grothe.. Looking for USF to beat them with speed and hopefully they are feeling good after that WVU win and get up for this bowl game..
SJST +3.5 +100 --- 3 Units - Little nervous here, I like SJST though, they don't get it done pretty but they get it done. Not worried about this being a home game for NM, don't think thats a real big concern. Need Tafralis to come through 2day and keep the offense steady. NM has 2 qb's who played this yr because of injuries but Porterie will start but Nelson might see playing time.
Utah -1.5 +100 --- 4 Units - I see a lot of people on Tulsa and I don't buy it. No way I am playing a team who lost 3 of their last 4 games (Hous, SMU, Rice).... Instead I will play the team who won 3 of their last 4 (UNLV, AF, Colo St)...Utah had BYU on the ropes for a 9count until Beck came through with no time left to deliver a TD.. Utah could be emotionally drained from that game being that this was an up and down yr and they had their biggest rivals on the ropes however I think they are the superior team here and a good bowl record in past yrs tells me they will be focused..
Also have locked in:
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units
Saturday Picks
South Florida -6 +100 --- 3 Units - Going against conference USA today big time. I know you shouldnt look at it like this but team a beat team b who is playing team c... Rice beat ECU and after what I saw last night, there is something to be said about that. South Florida wins this game with a tough defense, Aztec has it written up well if you are looking for more detail.. Like USF qb Grothe.. Looking for USF to beat them with speed and hopefully they are feeling good after that WVU win and get up for this bowl game..
SJST +3.5 +100 --- 3 Units - Little nervous here, I like SJST though, they don't get it done pretty but they get it done. Not worried about this being a home game for NM, don't think thats a real big concern. Need Tafralis to come through 2day and keep the offense steady. NM has 2 qb's who played this yr because of injuries but Porterie will start but Nelson might see playing time.
Utah -1.5 +100 --- 4 Units - I see a lot of people on Tulsa and I don't buy it. No way I am playing a team who lost 3 of their last 4 games (Hous, SMU, Rice).... Instead I will play the team who won 3 of their last 4 (UNLV, AF, Colo St)...Utah had BYU on the ropes for a 9count until Beck came through with no time left to deliver a TD.. Utah could be emotionally drained from that game being that this was an up and down yr and they had their biggest rivals on the ropes however I think they are the superior team here and a good bowl record in past yrs tells me they will be focused..
Also have locked in:
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units
reNew Orleans
Clubbin' with Rasual Butler
GL today, USF looking good so far. leaning utah
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
4-2 (+9.7 Units)
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii -7 -110 --- 3.3 Units to win 3 Units (bought 1/2 pt)
I am expecting an unfocused ASU team to showup tonight and a Hawaii team with a napoleon complex to try and take it to them. Hawaii wants to show the world it can play with the big conference schools and the last 2 outings they have been competitive but it has not been your typical Hawaii performance...Now comes in ASU...
ASU has scored over 30 points just twice this yr minus the first two weeks when they played No. Arizona and Nevada.... (38 vs Stan & 47 vs WSU)... I am not expecting a back and forth shootout that ends up 41-38 or some shit, I think Hawaii can pull away a little bit in this one and I actually lean towards the under..Oregon St ran 26-71yards vs Hawaii and Purdue ran for 27-90yards. Against the bigger conference schools, Hawaii has showed me they can stop the run. ASU will be no different here, they will attempt to rush the shit out of the ball, those of you expecting ASU to air it out every down better reconsider that thought...#1)Their leading receiver is their TE with less than 10yds/catch and #2) Last 5 games they have attempted (45,30,19,34,34) rushes per game... That puts the scoring in Rudy Carpenter's hands and this yr has not been very good for him. They have no go-to receiver like last yr. The last 5 games, Carpenter's completion percentages are (68, 37, 62, 33, 73).. You can't be any more inconsistent than that. Hawaii has showed problems matching up with receivers from the BCS schools and that could be a issue tonight if they do not get enough pressue on ASU..
If my memory serves me correctly, Nate Ilaoa played in a limited role vs. Oregon St and he is a vital part of this Hawaii Offense that is often over looked because of the yr Brennan is having. With word of Brennan thinking about leaving early, he must perform tonight. Ilaoa had some time to heal that leg injury or whatever, this is the last game in Hawaii for the seniors, it is a home game, they want it more, Jones will come out firing tonight..
Prediction: Hawaii 41 - ASU 27
Hawaii Bowl
Hawaii -7 -110 --- 3.3 Units to win 3 Units (bought 1/2 pt)
I am expecting an unfocused ASU team to showup tonight and a Hawaii team with a napoleon complex to try and take it to them. Hawaii wants to show the world it can play with the big conference schools and the last 2 outings they have been competitive but it has not been your typical Hawaii performance...Now comes in ASU...
ASU has scored over 30 points just twice this yr minus the first two weeks when they played No. Arizona and Nevada.... (38 vs Stan & 47 vs WSU)... I am not expecting a back and forth shootout that ends up 41-38 or some shit, I think Hawaii can pull away a little bit in this one and I actually lean towards the under..Oregon St ran 26-71yards vs Hawaii and Purdue ran for 27-90yards. Against the bigger conference schools, Hawaii has showed me they can stop the run. ASU will be no different here, they will attempt to rush the shit out of the ball, those of you expecting ASU to air it out every down better reconsider that thought...#1)Their leading receiver is their TE with less than 10yds/catch and #2) Last 5 games they have attempted (45,30,19,34,34) rushes per game... That puts the scoring in Rudy Carpenter's hands and this yr has not been very good for him. They have no go-to receiver like last yr. The last 5 games, Carpenter's completion percentages are (68, 37, 62, 33, 73).. You can't be any more inconsistent than that. Hawaii has showed problems matching up with receivers from the BCS schools and that could be a issue tonight if they do not get enough pressue on ASU..
If my memory serves me correctly, Nate Ilaoa played in a limited role vs. Oregon St and he is a vital part of this Hawaii Offense that is often over looked because of the yr Brennan is having. With word of Brennan thinking about leaving early, he must perform tonight. Ilaoa had some time to heal that leg injury or whatever, this is the last game in Hawaii for the seniors, it is a home game, they want it more, Jones will come out firing tonight..
Prediction: Hawaii 41 - ASU 27
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texasfight
Karl Marx sucks balls
Nice job yesterday, Green. I'm on Hawaii with you. ASU has quit, and Hawaii smell's fresh BCS meat after losing vs. the Oregon State Hatchet Wounds.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Thanks Texas, glad we are on same side 2nite..
I think that Oregon St loss left a sour taste in Hawaii's mouth..People started to shun them and say they can't compete with the BCS schools.. An unfocused ASU team is just what they need... I keep seeing people bringing up that ASU has the 2nd best defense in the pac 10, where the hell was it when Oregon St ran up 44 points? OSU exploited them for 400yards of offense, 282 by air. I will take Brennan and Hawaii receivers vs that secondary if OSU and Moore could light them up.. That defensive stat is skewed and in no way do I believe they are the 2nd best defense in the PAC 10..
I think that Oregon St loss left a sour taste in Hawaii's mouth..People started to shun them and say they can't compete with the BCS schools.. An unfocused ASU team is just what they need... I keep seeing people bringing up that ASU has the 2nd best defense in the pac 10, where the hell was it when Oregon St ran up 44 points? OSU exploited them for 400yards of offense, 282 by air. I will take Brennan and Hawaii receivers vs that secondary if OSU and Moore could light them up.. That defensive stat is skewed and in no way do I believe they are the 2nd best defense in the PAC 10..
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
5-2 (+12.7 Units)
Final score: Hawaii 41 - ASU 24
The under looked pretty tonight, just didn't have the balls to take an under in an Hawaii game. Overall, they had me worried at times but Brennan with (558yards, 5td & 1int) is just the an early xmas. I could not have asked for anything more from him, I think its stupid that Bess was ejected, luckily for us, the game was over.. What about Rivers with 308yds receiving. ASU defense got eaten up 2nite...
Merry XMas and Happy Holiday to all, back on tuesday with a possible play..
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
6-2 +15.7 Units
CMU jumped out early and MTSU was forced to throw more than they should. Marks threw 37 attempts, Thats about 10-12 more times than he has thrown in any conference game. After CMU shut down the screens they had control, although the first missed field goal in the 4th quater by CMU made it interesting because if MTSU would have scored it would be 28-21.
Nice little run going, minus that Rice game, but I think it will start to get tougher from here on out and I prob won't be on every game. I have the bookie in a nice spot and I would like to really take it to him on a few more plays, SC on friday.
Favorites are 6-2 ATS so far here, I think some dogs cover in the next few days like A&M, maybe K-State or Bama, haven't looked at those games hard enough but more than likely I will be sitting out the FSU/UCLA game
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
Good to see I am only part degenerate and I actually stuck to my word.. After much debate, I will watch this one stress free... I had the phone ready to call the bookie but I am going to sit back and try to enjoy this sloppy, low scoring game..
I can't trust FSU, bottom line. If the game comes down to kicking, I hear there are 20-25mph winds in SF for gametime and Noles K Cimesia only hit 11/17 FG, and 3-8 from 40+. UCLA K Medlock is 26/30 including 6-9 from 40+ with a long of 51.
The problem I have with UCLA is that their offense is far from stellar as well and FSU plays good enough defense to cause some problems..A damn pick-6 could be the difference in this one and QB Cowan is a 54% completion qb and has 9/7 TD-Int ratio.
UCLA has every reason to end this season on a high note despite busting their load vs. USC and FSU is trying to avoid a losing season. I think UCLA is more excited about being in this bowl than FSU but I just can't pull the trigger..
FSU lack of run game will decide this one..Just for shits and giggles If I had to make a play on this game with a gun to my head I would play:
UCLA -3 for 1.5 Unit
Under 38 for 1.5 Unit
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
Bama +2 - Scared of a team with no head coach, no play
A&M +4 - Line is dropping, see -3.5 now... Will pick this tonight
UK +10 - No play, UK has been playing tough lately but they are bad on defense and I can see Clemson winning by 14 here..
SC -6 - Locked in for 3.5 units already, Will also put money on the ML -220, it might sound like a homer but we are not losing this game.. prob my biggest bowl play
Tex Tech -6.5 - Like TT pass offense vs one of the worse pass defenses in the country
Tenn -4 - Think Tenn can win here
Miami -3 - Undecided here, Like Miami because of just the severe athletic advantage they have here. Nevada will be running in slow motion
Nebraska +2 - Lester is out and he is a nice back to have. Last yrs bowl game is still fresh in my mind. At this point I think Nebraska is more hungry after Auburn finishes an overrated and disappointing season
Michigan PK - Not a fan of JDB, like Michigan to start the engine for next season
Oklahoma -7.5 - Adrian Peterson is back and the line dropped.. Sure I will take it..
Cinci -7 - Seeing how Kelly already beat Western Michigan once I think he has the blueprint to do it again. IMO, he has more talent at Cinci so why not..
So Miss -6 - Think they can roll Ohio as long as they stop the run..
Flor +8 - Not a large play by any means, just rooting for the Underdog here
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Holiday Bowl
Texas A&M +3 +100 --- 2 Units - writeup to come
Liberty Bowl
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units
South Carolina ML -260 --- 5.2 Units to win 2 Units
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units* added more on
By far my biggest game of the bowl season, this game will make or break my bowl season as I put 12.2 Units at risk.. I know there are many on Houston including my friend DR. BOB..I had the pleasure of betting Houston many times this yr and I feel comfortable with the team. I go to SC so I know them pretty damn good.. Besides the writeup above, here is what else I have to add to this game..
Insight Bowl
Texas Tech -6.5 +100 -- 2 Units - writeup to come
Texas A&M +3 +100 --- 2 Units - writeup to come
Liberty Bowl
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units
South Carolina ML -260 --- 5.2 Units to win 2 Units
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units* added more on
By far my biggest game of the bowl season, this game will make or break my bowl season as I put 12.2 Units at risk.. I know there are many on Houston including my friend DR. BOB..I had the pleasure of betting Houston many times this yr and I feel comfortable with the team. I go to SC so I know them pretty damn good.. Besides the writeup above, here is what else I have to add to this game..
- SC has sold nearly 20,000 tickets, that does not account for people traveling up to the game and buying tickets before kickoff, these are just recorded sales. Houston had trouble selling their tickets, there will be a lot more Gamecocks than Cougars.
- SC is young and returns 10 starters on defense (about 15-16 players who saw time) and 9 on offense (about 13-14 players who saw time).. This game is setting up the momentum for next season and SC would like to finish with 3 straight wins, not a loss..
- Despite SC winning their "Superbowl" this yr against Clemson, SC is highly motivated for this game, look no further than last yrs bowl game. This is huge guys, SC will play a full 4 quaters.
- Spurrier
- SC racked up 492yards and 28 First downs vs. Clemson, the offense is finally finding its stride and Houston will have to defend the run and pass. If Mitchell limits his throws to the other team he will pick Houston apart.
- SC, while it doesnt play outstanding defense, has only given up over 30 points one time this yr vs. Tennessee.
- Anytime SC is inside the 35 of Houston it is points. I say this because SC kicker is money. If it werent for that wackiness in Florida (Blocked XP, 2 block field goals), SC beats them. On the season he has been very accurate and has a very strong leg.
- Level of competition: Conference USA is weak. Bottom line, the bowls are exposing them.
- Houston is sketchy, they were outgained by 150yds vs. Miami but they only lost by 1. After that game they lost to Lousiana Laf, no excuse for that whatsoever, I don't care how letdown you felt. Opening week they beat Rice by 1point, Clement played but he only had 150yds passing so I wouldn't credit the Rice effort to him. Memphis took them to OT and Southern Meth blew a 10point halftime lead.
- You can look at SC beginning of the yr as wacky too but I think that is a result of the youth this team displayed, Qb troubles and an Oline that needed time to gel rather than inconsistent play.
- Steve Spurrier says Syvelle Newton has practiced this postseason at quarterback, wide receiver and defensive back, the three positions he played during the regular season. I can only hope we get to see all of Newton's athleticism on display. He can do it all.
- "Nix spent 15 years at Southern Miss as a player and a coach, and his younger brother remains on the Golden Eagles' coaching staff. During his stint as the Southern Miss defensive coordinator, Nix became acquainted with Houston, one of the Golden Eagles' Conference USA rivals. In fact, Houston coach Art Briles might argue that Nix is too well acquainted with the Cougars' offensive schemes. Nix was 2-0 against Briles at Southern Miss" - Gogamecocks.com
- The Gamecocks are 7-1 when they run for more than 150 yards with the one loss coming to Tennessee
Insight Bowl
Texas Tech -6.5 +100 -- 2 Units - writeup to come
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E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
Guys, excited as we get closer to Friday...
Here is a Gamecock clip I found on youtube against MTSU. None the less, Houston get ready for #3 Cory Boyd, also a Jersey Native.. :wacka wacka:
One person will not take him down!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s46c9SkYgM8
Here is a Gamecock clip I found on youtube against MTSU. None the less, Houston get ready for #3 Cory Boyd, also a Jersey Native.. :wacka wacka:
One person will not take him down!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s46c9SkYgM8
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
Yupp glad I went with my first instincts to not bet this game. That would have been 0-2 on totals and cost me 3.3 Units..
6-2 +15.7 Units
Holiday Bowl
Texas A&M +3 +100 --- 2 Units:
Both teams come in 9-3. PAC 10 = 0-3 in bowls so far with the latest victim, UCLA. Both teams are also 1-2 in their last 3 games, both winning their last game (Cal = Stanford, A&M = Texas). Looking back on the season both teams have some games they should not be proud of, Cal escaping in OT vs. Washington in a game they had no business winning.. Wash QB threw 5 picks and of course we can't forget that beatdown opening week. A&M had their troubles with a powerful Army team as 28pt favorites and Kansas handed them a scare. However the thing that makes me like A&M is the last 3 weeks of the season. This is a pretty young squad and they too can build a lot of momentum going into next season. Cal was in a game with Stanford, Lost to USC, Lost to Arizona. A&M beat Texas, granted Colt wasn't at his best but a win is a win, a 1pt loss to Oklahoma and a last second loss to Nebraska when they had just put the go-ahead score in. A&M has been playing tough ball lately and I like them more coming into this game.. My other problem is Nate Longshore. The key to an A&M victory is containing D. Jackson, he has 979yds & 54 catches but only 1 TD grab in L6 games. Don't let him beat you on special teams as well. Lynch has not scored in the last 3 games and the starting fullback is out. IMO, a good fullback is very important to his HB..Ask LT how many td's he would have without Neal. Now obviously this kid isn't Lorenzo Neal but you get my point. A&M is going to counter with a very good rushing attack. They have a bowling ball at 274lbs (19TDs) who is next to impossible to stop near the goal line and they have a frosh RB they have started to get into the mix a lot more lately, kid is talented. Lets not forget McGee, kid is a player in my mind who you can trust, he does not make many mistakes (11/2 TD-Int) and is a threat with his feet. Longshore on the other hand less than 50% completion in his last 3 games with 5 picks. A&M needs to control the Cal team speed by pounding them and controling the Time of Possession. Currently they are 3rd in the nation in that category. I will take the points here but I feel A&M can win this SU.
Keys to A&M Win: Win the T.O.P battle.. Contain D. Jackson.. Force Longshore to beat you with his arm. Hammer them with the run.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
with you on A&M today, ETG.
btw...excellent fucking write up on the south carolina game.
btw...excellent fucking write up on the south carolina game.
TGOOD
Pretty much a regular
A&M :cheers: With you on this one. Cal is being overrated in this situation, I am not even sure that they should be favored. I am starting to really look at Bama as well. I think that their defense will be able to contain Ok st with ease, kind of like F ing Texas Tech last year in the Cotton Bowl.
Good luck to you. Lets make some cash.:drink:
Good luck to you. Lets make some cash.:drink:
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
0-1 -2.2 Units on the nite which brings me to 6-3 +13.5 Units
Too much speed from the Cal side, the Wack 10 got its first bowl win, still like Michigan to take it to USC.
Anyway tomorrow is a huge day. Got 12.2 Units riding on the gamecocks so this will either make or break bowl season. I feel good about this pick, it would be like one of my P.O.W from earlier in the season. For those of you on Houston, all I can say is good health. For those of you on Carolina, expect a Garnet and Black stadium and a team ready to play until the last whistle..
Liberty Bowl
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units
South Carolina ML -260 --- 5.2 Units to win 2 Units
South Carolina -6 +100 --- 3.5 Units* added more on
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
Looks good ETG. Lets get South Carolina.
Yanks27Sox9
CTG Partner
yep...i joined you on this, ETG. Even went back and threw another unit on USC after seeing this thread again, lol.
BOL tomorrow, bro.
BOL tomorrow, bro.
E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
everythingthatsgreen said:
7-3 +22.5 Units
First for those of you who were on SC, I am sorry it had to be so stressful. Wow I am just happy to get out of that one with a win.
Now on to the game. First, my hat is off to Houston, when I capped this game I accounted for their speed however they displayed more than I had seen in previous games this season. I thought SC could match up with them speed wise but Marshall and Alridge were able to hurt SC often..Kolb is a hell of a player like I said and I wish him the best in the future..The Houston playcalling was also fearless and I have a lot of respect for Briles. They came to play tonight and I think they left it all on the field...
I actually feel lucky to come out of this a winner.. So much for the SC kicker being automatic, kid cost me 4points.
Play of the game: Houston missed snap on 3rd & goal when they prob would have taken the lead...
SC has plenty to work on this offseason. The only thing that went according to plan was the SC offense. I knew Houston would not slow them down and they couldnt. Houston corner #10 was picked on all day. Blake Mitchell sucks and if we had someone to replace him, we would. He holds on to the ball for too long and he is a sitting duck in the pocket..Hopefully this is stuff Spurrier can fix in the offseason because imo we still do not have a qb to replace him yet..
Cory Boyd is a beast, glad he will be back next yr..
Sidney Rice is a beast, hopefully he will be back next yr..
Who am I to question Spurrier's playcalling but on 4th down you run a power dive when they stacked the box? I thought for sure Houston would score and totally fuck everything but a big sack forced Houston into a long down & distance with no timeouts.
I was in total distgust that Houston was able to go 70yds in 12 seconds to end the half, unbelievable.. SC took horrible angles and the kid was Gone... Overall this win was huge for my bowl season, I really don't even care about the Texas Tech game. I won't be on so many plays because I am in no hurry to give the bookie any money back.. Once again, if you were on SC and I helped you, I am happy cause thats what this forum is all about. Whooo now I need to relaxxxx...
:drink: money; :7_17_4:
